Hoping to come on for the run...

Where to start? Well, spiders started coming into the house in the middle of August this year - that looks early in my book.

England manager Thomas Tuchel had a bit of a dig at the fans for their lack of support following last night's comfortable victory over Wales in a friendly at Wembley. 

Previously, after England's 2-0 victory over Andorra at the beginning of September, Martin Samuel wrote in The Times that 'Thomas Tuchel is selecting on form that is seven years out of date'. That line struck me like a bolt out of the blue: for years I've been doing something very similar - and I immediately experienced something of a personal epiphany.

After such a startling shock, I dashed straight under the stairs - a damp, dingy, festering space that I've used as a refuge in times of distress ever since the shed started to leak - and began to make the sort of technical adjustments to the selection processes that, in the long run, are unlikely to make any material difference whatsoever; readers hoping to see an improvement in the performance of the blog's highlighted runners should bear in mind the age old adage: old habits die hard.

Here's a salient case in point from Worcester's Fixed Brush Series Final card at the end of September.

Things had started off well enough on the day: minimal travel expenses incurred thanks to the Older Person's bus pass - used on the railway; concessionary course admission for £18.50; and then a kindly gent in the queue offered me a token for a free racecard. 

It went quickly downhill thereafter.

In the feature I preferred Knights Affair to Don Virginia, having watched a replay of their meeting over an extended trip at Stratford several times the night before. Don Virginia blew away what looked on paper a competitive field to win 17 lengths, with Knights Affair a further 20 lengths adrift in seventh.

Then Sir Hobnob took the biscuit by running green in the two and a half mile maiden hurdle.

After the Fixed Brush Hurdle Final, winning jockey Richie McLernon said:

"I was second on him at Hereford and thought he was a bit questionable then, but they held off for this and, fair play, it's paid off. They've [first-time cheekpieces] made a massive difference."

Paul Nicholls was slightly more helpful when he told Racing Post readers he doesn't have the ammo for a tilt at this year's trainers' title - he thinks Dan Skelton a bit of a shoo-in - but Martin Pipe's record of 3,930 winners is certainly within range.

Plenty thought Skelton a bit of a shoo-in last season but they hadn't counted on the the late run of Mr W.P.Mullins - for a second consecutive year. The Irish maestro clearly has his eye on the hat-trick with early season targets already pencilled in for Il Etait Temps (Tingle Creek); Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior (King George); and Anzadam (Fighting Fifth).

Mr David Maxwell hung up his riding boots over the summer - the David Maxwell dispersal sale takes place after racing at Cheltenham on Friday October 24th. 

The man himself told punters to 'lump on' Queensbury Boy in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow but earlier this afternoon the gelding could only finish fourth behind Sticktotheplan who, in a first-time hood, successfully conceded weight to all his rivals. Mr Maxwell's thoughts on one or two other key horses in the sale are here. 

Cheers for Chepstow's inaugural three-day Welsh Racing Festival which sees the Welsh Champion Hurdle (3.17 Sunday) return to the track for the first time since 2002. Earlier today the going on the hurdle track was changed from good to soft to good after the first race and on the chase track from good to good to firm, good in places after the third race.

On Monday, on his first ride since suffering spinal and neck injuries at Plumpton on Easter Monday, Nico De Boinville made all aboard The Expensive One to win the novices' handicap hurdle at Stratford. After that race the jockey said he was likely to 'come on for the run' and the same comment can be applied to the author of what follows.

Two chasers on the radar tomorrow:

Deep Cave makes his debut over British fences (2.45 Chepstow). 

After winning the opening handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, trainer Christian Williams said of Deep Cave:

"It's probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he'd be better on nice ground and he's going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he's not a novice, but hopefully he'll be a Saturday horse."

King Of Answers makes his chase debut (3.45 Hexham).

Back in May 2023 King Of Answers was beaten under two lengths by Wendigo in an Irish maiden point. Wendigo subsequently finished second behind The New Lion in the Challow at Newbury before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett behind Jasmin De Vaux. 

Finally, I realise I'm wandering off-piste but jumps trainers have a decent recent record in the Cesarewitch (3.40 Newmarket) - they have collected the spoils in nine of the past 12 renewals - and Ndaawi catches my eye. 

Gordon Elliott's charge, sent off a 7/1 chance for last year's renewal (Jamie Spencer up), finished stone cold last on soft ground, beaten 134 lengths off a mark of 92. After that race the trainer's representative reported the gelding did not stay the trip of 2m 2f on this occasion. 

Next time out, back over the sticks, he finished second to Kargese in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham (run over 2m 1f on the stiffer New Course on good to soft) and was then awarded the Galway Hurdle (2m, good) in the stewards' room at the beginning of August.

He lost two places when coming under pressure in the closing stages on the Flat at Chester last month (2m, good to soft, Cieren Fallon up) and connections have opted to fit first-time cheekpieces tomorrow. Cieren Fallon keeps the ride while Jamie Spencer is aboard stablemate Mordor.

His seventh in the 2024 Ascot Stakes (2m 4f good to firm) suggests this trip is within his compass on quick ground; a hurdle mark of 154 indicates there could be some leeway off a Flat mark of 89.

Ndaawi is a tentative each-way suggestion, 20/1 with Coral and William Hill at the time of writing, both paying five places.

Frankie, Lucinda, Caroline, Michael - and the longest impending retirement I've ever known

Many years ago, at a time when I had to work for a living, one of my workplace managers - I occupied a humble, lowly position within a vast organisational hierarchy - announced, with some degree of relish, his impending retirement, having recently celebrated his 50th birthday.

You may have encountered a similar type.

At subsequent fortnightly catch-up meetings he'd invariably reference at some point his previous 'announcement' with the result that, within the matter of a few short weeks, we'd all grown fed up to the back teeth hearing about 'the retirement'.

The individual concerned eventually took the plunge at the age of 59 and, to this day, it remains the longest impending retirement I've ever had the misfortune to bear witness to.

However it would appear Lanfranco Dettori seems intent on giving my colleague a bit of a run for his money.

Having spent this, his 'final' season, telling anyone and everyone that he's about to hang up his riding boots after Qipco Champions Day at Ascot, Frankie has suddenly changed his mind and is now off to ride full-time in the States.

"I could be there three months or three years, I don't know," he said.

Well, bless my old boots.

Over the summer months Michael Scudamore has moved his operation north of the border to join forces with Lucinda Russell (and partner Peter Scudamore) while his brother Tom has taken over the reins at the Herefordshire base he vacated which will be used as a pre-training / satellite yard. 

The Russell-trained Lebowski ran without the declared tongue-tie in the Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Seniors' Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow earlier this afternoon. Sent off the 2/1 favourite, the bay raced from the front but was headed three out and weakened to eventually finish fifth.

Professor Tisdall is on record saying she wants to win two races above all others - the Grand National and the Cesarewitch.

Wordsworth carries her colours in the latter race tomorrow but wasn't quite poetry in motion when winning the first division of a Bangor maiden hurdle on his first run for David Pipe 10 days ago - Act Of Authority won the second division in a faster time.

Pied Piper, rated 157 over hurdles yet 96 on the Flat, heads the betting for the Ces but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in an old friend / adversary, Zoffee. 

This one finished fourth off the same mark in last year's renewal and looks to have had a similar prep - at the time of writing he's 20/1 with Sky who are paying eight places.

To finish, I note that Lucinda popped up on Desert Island Discs last month and included Wandrin' Star (Lee Marvin) in her list of eight tracks. 

Hmmm... Put me in mind of the time when I thought Walk In The Park would win the 2019 Becher Chase but I backed Wandrin Star (David Bass) instead. 

I don't need to tell you what happened.

Some Saturday suggestions

Those who have followed the blog over the summer months will know I've concentrated on horses with jumps form racing over distances beyond one and a half miles on the Flat; several familiar names are entered up for tomorrow's Cesarewich which is run over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and is due off at 3.50. Of the 34 declarations, 16 have some type of NH form to their name; they are listed below with brief comments:

Sentry Duty Not the easiest to catch right and IMO better with some cut. Sixth last year;
Veiled Tipped on the blog, took the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Every chance;
Keys In my mind not certain to see out this extended trip;
Dayia 80/1 (Coral) is a big price about Lady Green's brown mare but her best form has been with cut;
My Arch Eighth last year;
La Estrella Done most of his winning in races with no more than 12 runners;
Phoenix Flight Out of sorts after excellent third behind Veiled at Royal Ascot - Coral's 80/1 looks big;
Rainforest Magic Dermot Weld's runner is a potential blot on the handicap - respected;
Braveheart Move Yet to win beyond 13f;
Gifted Leader Laid out for this? 50/1 available;
Palomar Not without talent but for me is one that needs things to fall just right;
Right Stuff Finished last behind Gifted Leader last time out;
Beyond Trainer David Pipe's best chance in the race;
Abergavenny Billy Wallace (The Prophet) makes a case for this one in the Weekender;
Bow To No One Mare finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes behind Hollins;
Tasheba Beaten over 25 lengths in a Fontwell handicap seven days ago.

General opinion is higher drawn horses are at something of a disadvantage as they will have to race wide around the bend. That being the case Beyond (stall 3) makes most appeal of the market leaders (14/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing). For those who must, two outsiders at an each-way price - Gifted Leader (50/1) and Phoenix Flight (80/1).

These days Chepstow's card doesn't get the coverage it once did but the clash between Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti should prove informative. I don't make a habit of betting novices on their first try over the larger obstacles but I prefer Silviniaco Conti, given he's won at the track previously. In the Weekender West Country correspondent Andrew King reports Nicholls' charge '...has been pleasing in his work at Manor Farm...' Others I fancied on this card have been marked up at rather short prices so I'll keep my powder dry. The going is reported as good to soft, good in places at the Welsh track.

Up at Hexham Chris Bealby's L'Eldorado looks a play against likely favourite Quite The Man in a competitive opener; Chris has a good word for the gelding in a post on his blog this evening.

Taking stock

The jumps season starts to take centre stage in the next couple of weeks but a couple of events this week haven't necessarily shown the game in the best light. There were four fatalities at Wetherby on Wednesday; the course will have to pass an inspection before the meeting scheduled for Friday and Saturday October 30th / 31st will be allowed to go ahead - the Charlie Hall Chase is the feature of the Saturday. Meanwhile, yesterday at Cheltenham of all places, the four runners in the five o'clock race were forced to take the wrong course after staff failed to remove a temporary running rail. A stewards' inquiry ensued and all jockeys were exonerated - how often do we see that happen? The incident has been referred to the BHA - rumours that the groundstaff concerned have been served with a one-day ban for misuse of the rails are wide of the mark.

Two impressive winners this weekend... The proverbial handicap snip Darley Sun ran out an easy winner of the Cesarewitch and the Kempton Christmas Hurdle is now on the agenda for Starluck after the gelding won on his seasonal debut whilst remaining in second gear.

Earlier this week in The Times Paul Nicholls put up three dark horses from the yard to watch out for - Aiteen Thirtythree, Royal Charm and Valentine Vic. Don't say I didn't tell you.

Finally, as Sea The Stars prepares to take up a new career at stud, Julian Muscat composed a fascinating double-page spread for Thursday's The Times that gave a glimpse into the esoteric world of the horse breeder. Hills offer 12/1 that any of Sea The Stars' first crop of three-year-olds will win a classic.

The intray

This weekend I couldn't help but spare a thought for Eddie Ahern. After finishing second on the appropriately named Times Up in the 2.00 race at Newmarket on Friday, Eddie left the weighing room and went for a bit of a walkabout. When he returned, he found he'd missed the deadline to weigh out on his next intended mount, Charlie Farnsbarns in the 3.10. Able deputy Ryan Moore guided the 50/1 outsider to a one and half length victory over 5/2 favourite Bankable. Poor old Eddie! Instead of collecting his share of the £36,000 win prize money, he was served with a £140 fine. Still, things looked a little better on Saturday afternoon when he took the mount on another 50/1 shot, Caracciola. Caracciola won the Cesarewitch by three lengths.

Snap Tie turned over champion hurdler Katchit at Kempton on Sunday. After the race Katchit's trainer Alan King said he was disappointed (with the result) but satisfied (with the performance).

Sticking with Alan King, in a recent stable tour feature he indicated there are plans to race Franchoek over further (than two miles) in the coming season. The trainer feels the horse could make up into a World Hurdle contender.

Tomorrow Exeter hosts the inaugral running of the Best Mate Beginners' Chase at 3.10. The race has attracted some interesting entries including Straw Bear, Pasco, Or Bleu and Sir Harry Ormesher. I had planned to go to Ludlow on Thursday as I haven't been there for a few years but unfortunately something has turned up and I can't make it - the bookmakers will have to get their dinner money from somebody else. A course I've never visited is Hexham but a few friends made it up there a week last Saturday. They didn't leave the course 'with a carrier bag of bookies' loot', but they felt the course was small, friendly with good viewing, although there were no large screens in place. The course is situated on a hill - the weather was sunny but the wind chilling. Entrance into the parade ring and the stables was included in the £10 admission price. I think I'll try and make the effort to get up there sometime in the foreseeable future.

Finally, I have been reminded that it was Robbie Box (not Fox) that featured in the BBC series 'Big Deal'. Should you wish, you can buy the complete Series 1 from Amazon for just £17.98. Hmmm... think I'll give that one a miss.

Weekend highlights

New Approach tries for his third Group 1 win of the season in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket tomorrow but I won't be tempted into getting invovled. Last time out the Derby winner had to be kept up to his work to fend off Traffic Guard half a length; my guess is more will be required here and he could be vulnerable.

Invariably you can find a few jumpers in a Cesarewitch field and this year is no exception. On June's Ascot Stakes' form there's nothing between Missoula, Mamlook and Liberate. Although Missoula won the race, you could take the view that Mamlook would have collected the spoils with a clear run. While Missoula has been busy since, the other two come to this fresh. The Pipe yard hasn't really hit form this season so I'm going to have a small each-way interest in Philip Hobbs' Liberate who wears cheek pieces for the first time which, I hope, will help him concentrate that little bit more in the closing stages of the race. Jamie Spencer takes the ride.

Cheltenham's first Saturday card of the new season serves up some competitive-looking fare. In the feature handicap chase at 3.25 Ouzbeck is worth a mention but this looks a stiff task for a novice, particularly one who unseated his rider last time out. A number make their seasonal debuts but I'm siding with Lord Ryeford who has decent form this summer; the going and the trip are right up his street.

No selection for the Mick Fitzgerald Novices' Hurdle run thirty five minutes later but this race will be worth noting for future reference. Incidentally Mick's autobiography, entitled 'Better Than Sex', is now available from all good bookstores; quite a catchy title - I reckon it could be a bestseller!

Kempton hosts a fine card on Sunday, the highlight being the return of champion hurdler Katchit in the 4.35. A recorded interview with Katchit's trainer, Alan King, has been available on the Racing Post site over the last few days. By my calculations it was filmed roughly a fortnight ago; in it the trainer comments that his charge has 'thickened out' but is 20 kilos above his racing weight of last season. Teletext report today that the horse is expected to 'come on for the run'. That being the case, I won't be in a rush to take a short price about the champ; two to consider as plays against him are Snap Tie and Katies Tuitor.

In the same video, Mr. King is quite bullish about Greenbridge who runs in the 2.50. Greenbridge has schooled very well and the trainer admits that he's 'excited about him'. I'll take the hint, although he won't have it all his own way with Paul Nicholls' I'msingingtheblues also in the line-up.

Top-rated horse Woolcombe Folly looks the answer to the 3.25.

Provided the prices aren't too short, two other King inmates I'll consider on the card are Saticon in the opener and Nikos Extra in the 5.05.