Cold comfort

As a belated Father's Day present, a few weeks ago I was given tickets to tomorrow's Classic Chase meeting at Warwick; unfortunately that particular avenue of enjoyment has been scuppered by the cold weather -  along with the Coral Lanzarote Hurdle Day meeting at Kempton and the William Hill Medieval Raceday at Wetherby.

The feature from the Wetherby card, the Towton Novices' Chase, has been expeditiously transferred to the replacement meeting at Ffos Las which still has to pass an inspection tomorrow morning. 

The Met Office reports overnight temperatures at the Welsh track will remain above freezing while an update on Turftrax indicates the course was 'raceable' at 11.30 this morning.

Nonetheless, such is my disappointment at the abandonment of the Warwick fixture, I can barely summon the strength required to open a form book, never mind identify an each-way wager that makes any appeal.

Rosscahill and One Big Bang dominate the market for the DragonBet The Independent Bookmaker Handicap Hurdle (2.58). 

The former looked beaten after the last last time but stayed on powerfully to deny Ben Solo and tries this new trip on his first run in a handicap; the latter, second behind Shoot First at Haydock on his penultimate start, looked held on 127 at Cheltenham - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Soft ground at Ffos Las saps like nowhere else - Rosscahill, Mahland, Up For Parol, Stolen Silver, Balkardy, and Classic Concorde have all previously won at the track.

Mel Rowley's team are in good form but the price about Mahland has disappeared.

Stolen Silver, rated 154 over fences, goes off 141 and held five day entries for the Lanzarote and the Pertemps Qualifier at Warwick. This looks less competitive but the Sam Thomas trained grey jumped the Aintree hurdles as though they were fences nine weeks ago.

Up For Parol held the same five day entries as Stolen Silver, with the Lanzarote the probable target, Jamie Snowden's charge having finished sixth, third and thirteenth in the last three renewals of the Kempton showpiece.

On seasonal debut Up For Parol came home second, 18 lengths behind runaway winner Henri The Second in a Pertemps Qualifier at Sandown five weeks ago, with West To The Bridge a further 11 lengths adrift in fourth.

Classic Concorde finished ninth behind Val Dancer in the Welsh National last time but is rated six pounds higher over hurdles.

Madaket is reported to have schooled well over fences; Micheal Nolan reported the gelding 'stopped quickly' in a Chepstow handicap hurdle 15 days ago. 

Alan De Banks and Balkardy both race from out of the handicap. 

The former makes his handicap debut for a yard that hasn't sent out a winner for 61 days while the latter has struggled over the larger obstacles. Handler Evan Williams recently said of his charge [RP Weekender Straight from the Stable 26-30.12.24]:

"He's not very big and fences get in his way sometimes, but he's very genuine. He's a joy to have around the place and I hope he can carry on giving a good account of himself."

When I learnt of the replacement activity organised as a substitute for my Father's Day trip to the Warwick races, any enthusiasm I might have mustered for a Ffos Las fancy sapped straight out of my shoes - a walk around Kenilworth's Castle & Abbey Trail.

I'll keep my powder dry for another day. 

Welsh Champion Hurdle 2021

Champions Day at Ascot tomorrow but I prefer the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las instead.

Last year's winner Sceau Royal goes to Kempton on Sunday while the  runner-up Ballyandy tries his luck once again off a mark three pounds lower. 

That looked a particularly strong renewal with last week's Cesarewitch winner Buzz third and subsequent Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Milkwood fourth.

Tomorrow's renewal doesn't appear to be quite up to that standard but it's ultra competitive nonetheless. 

12 have been declared to face the starter at 4.35; the going is described as good with showers forecast.

At the time of writing the four five-year-olds in the field occupy the top four positions in the betting. 

Favourite Calico was last seen finishing fourth behind Milkwood in the Scottish Champion and has since had wind surgery (Diego Du Charmil eighth in that race).

Cormier came home second behind Copperless in Haydock's Swinton Hurdle in May and has been running on the Flat over the summer.

Amarillo Sky and Dobryn reappear after a summer break and both look unexposed; the former is joint top-rated with Ballyandy on Racing Post ratings.

The Tom Lacey trained Glory And Fortune is another unexposed type, coming into this after comfortably winning a Plumpton handicap last month. 

The Pipe team holds a strong hand with Umbrigado and Leoncavallo. 

On seasonal debut last year Umbrigado finished second behind War Lord in a Haydock handicap hurdle over a slightly longer trip. His five subsequent starts were all in chases - he won three, including the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury in March. I suspect this could be a pipe-opener for another campaign over the larger obstacles.

In the past Leoncavallo has run well after a break.

Ballyandy seems to have been around forever - he beat Battleford a nose in the 2016 Cheltenham bumper - and is as tough as old boots. Like the rest of us, he isn't getting any younger but the 10/1 bet365 are offering makes some each-way appeal.

The one that interests me is the Emma Lavelle trained Hang In There. 

This one brings decent recent form to the table. He was beaten a head by Stonific in the Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen in July, with Valentino Dancer a neck behind in third and Camprond fourth. 

Valentino Dancer was entitled to reverse that form when the pair re-opposed last month, again at Market Rasen, and he did just that, beating Hang In There two and a half lengths. Hang In There made a bad mistake at the final flight that day but the error probably didn't cost him the race.

Last weekend Valentino Dancer was beaten a head in a competitive handicap hurdle at Chepstow while Camprond won the Persian War Novices' Hurdle.

The handicapper has raised Hang In There two pounds for that latest run; regular pilot Joe Anderson claims ten.

Admittedly there are a few unexposed types in this field but with several layers quoting 16/1 and paying one fifth the odds four places, I've made a decision to hang in there.  

Hang In There is the each-way selection.

Early season temptations

Good Lord, it all seems decidedly early in the season to be talking Grand Nationals!

Gordon Elliott has sent Jury Duty and Clarcam over to contest the American Grand National at Far Hills in New Jersey. Other British runners in the field include Jaleo trained by Ben Pauling, Tornado Watch from the Emmet Mullins yard and Hammersly Lake trained by Charlie Longsdon.

The last-named has a race a little nearer to home named to wish him all the very best; eleven have been declared for tomorrow's 4.55 at Ffos Las: 'Hammersly Lake Good Luck in America Tonight Handicap Chase'.

Kempton's Sunday card is the best jumps action on this side of the Atlantic this weekend.

Only four have been declared for the listed 'Matchbook Time To Move Over Novices' Hurdle' at 3.05 but I'll be interested to see how Itchy Feet shapes up.

After his win at Southwell the last day trainer Olly Murphy said 'I wouldn't be afraid of going up in class with him'. Connections have certainly taken that jump up in class and on Racing Post Ratings Itchy Feet has some 20 lengths to find with likely favourite Leapaway who is going for the six-timer. At present the market is suggesting it's going to be competitive.

Two of the field in the handicap chase at 3.40 have had a recent run and the tissue this evening prices both around the 7/1 mark. Oliver's Hill won this race last year off a mark of 116 and will try to repeat the trick off a mark of 127 having got up to beat Peppay Le Pugh at Fontwell 15 days ago.

Valhalla has a mixed profile. His third behind Ontopoftheworld and I'dliketheoption at Newton Abbot at the beginning of the month was a decent pipe-opener although the winner that day has since been well beaten by Mercian King at Worcester. Colin Tizzard's string seems well forward - Mick Thonic (12/1) ran a creditable race from the front earlier today at Wincanton, beaten half a length by Equus Amadeus.

Last year Ballybolley beat Master Dee into third in the Prelude Handicap Chase (Market Rasen 4.00). The pair meet again this year with Connor Brace claiming ten pounds on Fergal O'Brien's charge. Only eight in the field but a very competitive affair nonetheless; Master Dee would have to be of interest at around 9/2.

To my mind the most interesting race of the day is the Smerdon Tree Novices' Chase (Ffos Las 3.55). I like the Tizzard-trained Vision Des Flos but he's a very short-priced favourite and this looks hot. A race to watch closely with the future in mind...

The temptations are there but I'm going to keep my powder dry for the long season ahead. And anyway, I'm off to Ludlow on Thursday!

Heaven - or hell?

The wet and windy weather forecast will certainly have an affect on tomorrow's QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot but it's likely to prove far more problematic for Ffos Las where The New One, Clyne and Sire De Grugy are amongst the declarations for the Ladbrokes Welsh Champion Hurdle at 4.25.

Amateur Mr Zak Baker picks up the ride on The New One and can claim five; regular pilot Sam Twiston-Davies is on duty at Stratford. Now eleven, Sire De Grugy's best days are probably in the past but here he races off a hurdles mark of just 147 - his chase mark is 165. His price has fluctuated noticeably - a 7/2 shot mid-afternoon, Gary Moore's charge is quoted 6/1 at the time of writing. Bottom weight Remiluc races from out of the handicap but is the only one with a recent run to his name.

West Approach, third behind Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the Ladbrokes Download The App Beginners' Chase at 3.20. Barry Geraghty is aboard Brelan D'As for owner J P McManus.

The uncertainty over the weather tempers enthusiasm for a wager, particularly at this early stage of the season.

Bristol De Mai was exceptional at the beginning of the year when he destroyed his field in the Peter Marsh at Haydock but subsequently his jumping wasn't up to scratch behind Native River at Newbury and he then finished 20 lengths behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup. Tomorrow he picks up the trail at a far less exalted level in the totepool Live Info Download The App Handicap Chase (3.00 Stratford). He's only six but seems to have been around for ever; in seasons past he has needed the first run.

Paul Nicholls' Roman De Senam is a warm order to come home in front having won convincingly at Chepstow six days ago. Aged just five, he has won two of his eight chase starts but I feel this is more competitive than the market would have us believe.

Nicky Henderson's Days Of Heaven is a big price and is of some interest although the ground is softer than ideal - essentially he wants good ground and currently the official going is described as good to soft.

This one was beaten some 14 lengths into seventh behind Alcala in the Market Rasen Summer Plate back in July; a few were slightly disappointed with that effort - the form book notes the gelding 'gave problems beforehand' - and he faded approaching the last.

He has won previously at this track and goes off a mark one pound lower; I feel there may be more to come and that makes the 16/1 on offer tempting.

Essentially I want the wind to dry the track out, the rain to stay away. The BBC's weather forecast predicts a dry sunny morning with rain arriving mid-afternoon.

Provided it rides no worse than good to soft and the eight make it to post, I intend to take a small early season each-way interest in Days Of Heaven.             

Heavy going for the Ffos Las feature

I'm considering a wager in the West Wales National at Ffos Las tomorrow (3.15) but at the back of my mind I can hear Sir Anthony McCoy OBE saying something along the lines of  'there's heavy and there's Ffos Las heavy'.

And the weather forecast looks decidedly grim too.

Rebecca Curtis fields four of the seven declared; last year her Bob Ford finished in splendid isolation to collect the spoils at odds of 16/1 with eight of the nine opponents failing to complete.

There are some notable differences to take into account for this year's renewal: Bob Ford is set to carry top weight and is currently priced up favourite; the gelding looked to have a hard enough race and had probably come to the end of his tether when falling four out in the Welsh National at Chepstow last month; the distance of the race has been shortened by three furlongs.

Stablemate Red Devil Lads doesn't jump well enough for my liking while Audacious Plan would prefer better ground (and has the Kim Muir as his target) which suggests connections may consider Minella On Line their best chance of a repeat victory.
    
Cogry failed to fire when sent off favourite for the Welsh National; if you can forgive that particular effort, he has form in the book - his two and a quarter lengths fourth to Sausalito Sunrise at the Cheltenham Open meeting catches the eye. He has won on heavy ground before - but this is Ffos Las heavy. And he did appear to get stuck in the mud last time... 

5/1 Minella On Line is tempting but Jamie Bargary can claim five on Cogry; Cogry (3/1) is given another chance.

It's unusual to see two top-notch novice chases within twenty minutes of one another. On paper Sandown's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (2.25) looks between Tea For Two and Bristol de Mai but the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby (2.45) is a far more open affair.

Definitly Red did well to finish so close to Black Hercules at Warwick the last day as he was persistently out-jumped by the winner. Blaklion is a horse I like who will be suited by the step back up to three miles here but Native River was slightly disappointing behind Tea For Two in the Feltham - connections felt Kempton's right-handed track didn't suit their charge. Harry Fry's mare Bitofapuzzle fell last time over in Ireland but poses a serious threat to all.

Back going left-handed, Native River (7/2) is the selection.   

Ffos Las foibles

Only five declared for tomorrow's Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown; course and distance winner Irish Saint is probably the percentage call but he's likely to be priced accordingly in what looks a rather trappy renewal. For that reason, I'm off to Ffos Las for a wager.

In the West Wales National (2.40) I'll chance Oliver Sherwood's Global Power who missed the cut for the Welsh National at Chepstow if memory serves...

I happened to tip the beast for Warwick's Classic Chase three weeks ago but he was withdrawn on the morning of that race. Theatrical Star beat the selection a neck at Fontwell in December before coming home a good second to Hawkes Point in the Warwick showpiece.

The ground and trip should suit but there are dangers aplenty including last year's runner-up Firebird Flyer, Ziga Boy who was travelling very well when coming to grief in the Mandarin Chase at Newbury and David Pipe's Smiles For Miles who has shown good form this season.

Generally available at 6/1, Global Power is the selection.

The Welsh Champion Hurdle (2.05) has a competitive look to it but I'm drawn to another Sherwood inmate, Puffin Billy. This one failed to get into any sort of rhythm in the Ascot novice chase won by Irish Saint just before Christmas; he fell heavily at the last when well beaten.

Connections have chosen to revert to the smaller obstacles here; there's no denying that fall is a concern.

That said, he was good enough to finish nine lengths second to Melodic Rendezvous off a rating of 150 two years ago and then fifth behind Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours, Jezki and company in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the 2013 Festival.

Supporters of the fancied Foryourinformation will point to a noteworthy fourth behind Out Sam, Thomas Brown and Tea For Two in November and a second behind Value At Risk, although he was 22 lengths adrift at Newbury.

In his latest run in a Class 5 maiden hurdle over course and distance he only just landed the spoils by a neck from Warren Greatrex newcomer April Dusk.

I'm not wholly convinced but there are several better judges who feel the handicapper has let him in lightly. 

Racing off a mark of 143 tomorrow, Puffin Billy (12/1 bet365) rates an each-way play in a race where six of the field are obliged to carry more than their long handicap weight.

From a £15 million jackpot to Ffos Las

The total for this week's Scoop6 pool is predcited to pass the £15 million mark...

With the benefit of hindsight, last week's pot (4,696,960 different winning combinations) was eminently more winnable than this week's puzzle (9,424,800 combinations).

Rain is predicted for Haydock - the odd non-runner here and there may reduce that rather large number by the odd million or so but we're still talking big numbers.

All this week's races will be run over a distance of eight furlongs or less; for those interested, the races are:

2.05 Haydock 
2.50 Catterick
2.55 Goodwood
3.10 Haydock
3.25 Catterick
3.45 Haydock

There's no £15 million jackpot up for grabs at Ffos Las but the rain has certainly arrived at the Welsh track where the going is described as soft; the handicap chase at 7.40 looks more open than some of the other fare on offer.

Top weight Smadynium, trying this trip for the first time, isn't guaranteed to stay while at the other end of the handicap Tough Talkin Man has been allocated the bare minimum and amateur Mr S P Bowen claims a further seven pounds - the Bowen yard has sent out four winners in the past week. Whispering Jack won this last year (Sir Mattie beaten 16 lengths) but hasn't been in good form of late. By contrast Sir Mattie ran well for a long way here the last day on his first appearance for the best part of a year. Five Star Wilsham has his second run for the Twiston-Davies yard and boasts some interesting pieces of form; that said he has failed to complete in his last three chase starts.

Both Sir Mattie and Five Star Wilsham are priced up at around 5/1 in the tissue; of that pairing, the latter looks to offer slightly better value and so makes more appeal - it's the jumping that's the worry.       

Royal Ascot 2013 - Thursday: jumpers for Ladies' Day?

The Ascot Gold Cup is one of my favourite races on the Flat - this year's renewal looks very open with 18 set to face the starter. The Queen's filly Estimate gets her allowance and is bound to be popular but this looks a tough ask. Colour Vision had Saddler's Rock half a length and a neck behind in third when winning last year's renewal but the latter-named appeared unfortunate that day while Dermot Weld's 2010 winner Rite Of Passage is talented but fragile. Earlier in the week I fancied Simenon for this but the threat of rain is a worry; nonetheless Willie Mullins' charge won the Ascot Stakes and the Queen Alexandra Stakes four days later at last year's meeting so it's no surprise to see connections going for gold. Much of the value has disappeared from Simenon's price (7/1) and on official ratings he has enough to find with a few in the field. I'll stay loyal to Simenon but Saddler's Rock had both Colour Vision and the selection behind in last year's Goodwood Cup (run over two miles) so I'm considering a saver on Saddler's Rock...

Away from the posh coats and fancy frocks of Royal Ascot, I intend to chance Awaywiththegreys on his first try over fences at Ffos Las (7.05). Propsect Wells will make the market but in a Weekender Stable Tour (published 03.04.13-07.04.13) handler Peter Bowen said:

'He won a couple of novice hurdles in June and October last year, ending up with a rating of 133, but he will be much better over fences and has schooled brilliantly. He has had a break for the past few months but will be back for the summer and is definitely one to follow first time out which will be in early May.'

Propsect Wells was rated 149 when winning the Game Spirit at Fontwell in February but was turned over at odds of 1/4 on his chasing debut at that track and may not be the most natural chaser in the making.   

Randomly noted...

Hot on the hooves of the Godolphin doping scandal, this week jockey Eddie Ahern received a 10 year ban for breaching three BHA rules, a ban he will contest with the support of the Professional Jockeys' Association.

In other news...

Dettori's return to the track following a six month ban has been delayed but he remains hopeful of riding in the Epsom Derby on June 1st.
 
In Wednesday's Racing Post Lee Mottershead reported that in the period from January 1st to April 27th 2013 viewing figures for Channel 4 Racing were down on 22 of the 25 broadcast days, while the audience for The Morning Line fell 277,000 during the Cheltenham Festival.

And Royal Ascot has appointed its first 'official partner' - Swiss watchmakers Longines. Chris Cook of The Guardian wonders, quite wryly, whether this partnership will lead to the publishing of acccurate sectional times at the track...

Enough.

Last weekend's post made mention of Oliver Sherwood's mare Luci Di Mezzanotte. She didn't run at Bangor but did turn up for a Wetherby Maiden Hurdle yesterday and obliged at odds of 4/1.

Tomorrow sees the traditional Bank Holiday card at Cartmel; these meets are something of an institution in their own right but I'm afraid the place has never been particularly kind to me.

Down the country a bit and across to the left, the 6.40 novice hurdle at Ffos Las has caught my eye. The David Pipe trained Third Of The Third, owned by course boss Dai Walters, is likely to be sent off favourite but both Groomed and top weight Lord Grantham are closely matched on ratings. RPR/ OR ratings show Third Of The Third 132 / 113, Groomed 131 / 112 and Lord Grantham 129 / 120.

Granted, Lord Grantham has to give weight to all his rivals but Jake Greenall's three pounds allowance offsets some of the burden and Henry Daly's charge looks likely to stay the trip better than Groomed; I'll consider opposing the favourite with Lord Grantham at around the 3/1 mark.

Finally it's interesting to see the well-named Mad Moose running in a listed event on the Flat (2.20 York). After refusing to race at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals this spring, Mad Moose appears to have taken a a bit of a liking to the Flat game and his recent second at Chester behind Mount Athos (probably bound for the Melbourne Cup in November) reads well enough, although that form should be treated with plenty of caution.

Trainer's son Sam Twiston-Davies rides 'The Moose' over the sticks; brother Willie takes over here. Songcraft is the class act and the percentage call in the race; it remains to be seen whether Mad Moose can confirm recent improvement.

Ffos Las fancies

Tomorrow's Sandown card is an all-chase affair, the hurdles track having failed to cope with recent rain and snow. At this stage several Champion Hurdle contenders who were amongst the original declarations for the opener at the Esher course have now been re-routed to Doncaster for Monday's 32Red hurdle including Darlan, Rock On Ruby and Grandouet.

All eyes will be on Captain Conan at Sandown in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at 2.25. Barry Geraghty appears confident his mount will stay; I certainly wouldn't be tempted at odds of 2/5. His three opponents have all won over the trip while the favourite was beaten on both starts over two miles two last season.

After his horse Oscar Whisky had finished a neck second to Reve De Sivola at Cheltenham last week, Ffos Las owner Dai Walters took the opportunity to plug tomorrow's card at the West Wales track, pointing out that the £15 entrance fee was considerably cheaper than a ticket to the Wales v. Ireland rugby international - the match is scheduled to be transmitted on the large screen at the course.

As an aside, I fancy Ireland at the Millennium Stadium (13/10 Coral) but, getting back to the racing, the highlight is the Welsh Champion Hurdle (2.05), a limited handicap run over two and a half miles. Two years ago Mr Walters won this race with the aforementioned Oscar Whisky; this time he relies on Tanerko Emery but he doesn't appear particularly confident... Nicky Henderson's Oscara Dara is bound to be popular after victory in the Lanzarote at Kempton three weeks ago; his ungainly stumble at the last that day was far from pretty on the eye but the manner in which he recovered to win suggested there was a bit left in the tank. The handicapper has noticed though - he races off a mark 14 pounds higher here. It's interesting to see connections revert to the smaller obstacles with Tiger O'Toole; a talented individual on his day, in my book he has never really taken to chasing. His hurdles mark is nine pounds lower than his chase rating and although some of that advantage is negated by the race conditions, the 33/1 available generally looks too tempting; Tiger O'Toole is the each-way selection.

Twelve declared for the West Wales National at 2.40 (although Summery Justice has the 3.35 at Sandown as first preference) in which the bottom seven race from out of the handicap. Alfie Spinner is marked up favourite this evening - this one got no further than the third in the Hennessey and was then firmly put in his place by Katenko (winner since) at Sandown. At the last minute connections opted for that Sandown engagement rather than the Welsh National at Chepstow (presumably as it looked the easier task) so the fact the gelding was beaten some 27 lengths doesn't inspire confidence. Cannington Brook had a particularly hard race in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock six weeks ago, holding Jonjo O'Neill's Merry King a nose on the line. Junior holds claims but is quirky so at the prices I'll take an each-way interest in Our Island (16/1 Ladbrokes) from Tim Vaughan's stable. This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National having previously finished third in the Devon Marathon Handicap Chase at Exeter; he has place claims even though seven pounds 'wrong' at the weights.

Four go in the novice chase (3.10); Sir Mattie has his first run for 237 days but the other three look closely matched. I was at Warwick three weeks ago when Tour Des Champs came to grief two out in the race won by Rocky Creek. My impression was Tour Des Champs may have finished second that day but it was a crashing fall and his completion rate over the larger obstacles leaves a little to be desired. Benheir made a mistake at the first in the Classic Chase at that meeting and struggled thereafter but may show improvement with AP McCoy replacing seven pound claimer Patrick Corbett in the saddle. To be fair to the claimer, the pairing has won previously over the course and on their penutlimate outing finished 15 lengths behind Carruthers (goes in the 2.40). One In A Milan could be anything after an easy course and distance win last time out. Rebecca Curtis said in a Weekender stable tour (24-28 October 2012) that Benheir would be aimed at the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham - the stable won that race last year with Teaforthree - and, as McCoy has an excellent record riding for the yard, I'm going to give the vote to Benheir ahead of Tour Des Champs.

The same trainer / jockey combination will be worth a second look with Internationalapeal, described as 'a very big horse for his age' in the concluding bumper.

2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

The weather, Wetherby and Weatherbys

No selections this weekend - the turf cards at Sandown and Wetherby have already been lost to the weather and prospects at Ffos Las can hardly be described as good after clerk of the course Tim Long conceded frost had got under the covers - there's an inspection at 9.00 tomorrow morning.

What do we have to look forward to? Well, the Cheltenham Festival is just over five weeks away and the team behind the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2012 has started sending out tantalising statistical tweets on @CheltFestNews. The guide, now in its 13th year, is set to be published on February 24th and at £14.95 (including first class postage and packing), will, as always, prove a sound investment and extremely good value for money. This year you can also subscribe to the guide's Text Updates for £9.70 or Online Updates at a cost of £20.00

I'm staying disciplined and will not be tempted by tomorrow's rugby internationals, so no wagers for me this weekend; looking on the bright side, that'll be the first time I've managed to break even this year...

Some Saturday selections

Quick post this evening as I want to catch the Wales v. England rugby international. Dai Walters, the founder and owner of Ffos Las racecourse, will be hoping Wales can win tonight's match and that his horse Oscar Whisky makes it a double in the Welsh Champion Hurdle tomorrow. The layers think Whisky Oscar is something of a shoo-in (1/5) but they price England 4/7 favourites for tonight's encounter - Wales are 15/8 in spite of the home advantage.

In the three and a half mile chase at the Welsh track I'll chance I'moncloudnine who ran well to finish third in the Welsh National at Chepstow four weeks ago on ground that wouldn't necessarily suit. He sports first-time cheekpieces here which may bring out some improvement; Barry Geraghty, who looks to have a decent book of rides, is in the plate. The slight concern is the yard hasn't had a winner since January 13th.

At Sandown champion hurdler Binocular will face just three opponents at 1.55 - the next best horse is rated some 36 pounds inferior; as a result Binocular is priced 1/12 in tonight's tissue. The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase is far more competitive. After a comment in last Sunday's post about Robinson Collonges, I was looking forward to seeing that one taking his chance here but Paul Nicholls has entered front-runner Rebel Du Maquis instead. This one was beaten seven and a quarter lengths into third by Reve De Sivola and Wishfull Thinking the last time; on that occasion he was conceding eight pounds to the winner while the second franked the form with an impressive victory at the Cheltenham Trials Day meeting last week. Jonjo O'Neill saddles Rock Noir who hasn't raced over the distance in this country; in addition the stable has had a quiet time of it lately (3 wins from 33 runners in past fortnight). Big things were expected of Captain Chris this season - he's finished second three times but has bumped into a couple of smart performers in Silviniaco Conti and Ghizao; tomorrow should tell us more but on official ratings he has a bit to find with a few of these. Medermit is the top-rated animal and priced up the 7/2 market leader this evening; the favourite has won six of the last ten runnings. Second last time out in the Dipper, pilot Choc Thornton was disappointed to be beaten by Hell's Bay over two miles five - I've seen a comment from him this week saying that, with hindsight, he'd have ridden a different race. An open event - I'll side with Alan King's grey Medermit.

In the three mile totesport Masters Handicap Chase Philip Hobbs' Leading Contender appears nicely weighted - he doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock and is the tentative suggestion. Looking through a stable tour article from last October, the handler informs us the key is likely to be the jumping - the gelding isn't a natural but ran well enough for a long way behind Nicto De Beauchenne over course and distance the last time.

Only five go in the Towton at Wetherby but Ferdy Murphy had a good word for Hollo Ladies the other day. Ian Williams' Wayward Prince is bound to be popular but at the weights Murphy's charge has three pounds in hand and rates a play against the favourite at around 3/1.

Frozen courses

Probably the only thing I have in common with Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford is the fact we both took a peek under the covers this morning and didn't particularly like what we saw. Kempton's Boxing Day card has been abandoned; Monday's revised eight-race card at the track is now subject to an inspection on Sunday (Boxing Day) at 2.00pm.

At the time of writing the current state of play is:

Boxing Day 26th December

Kempton Park - abandoned

Fontwell Park - 11.00 am inspection Christmas Day

Huntingdon - abandoned

Market Rasen - abandoned

Towcester - abandoned

Wetherby - abandoned

Wincanton -abandoned

Wolverhampton - inspection 6.30 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned. Rescheduled Thursday 30th December

Limerick - abandoned

Down Royal - abandoned

Monday 27th December

Chepstow - abandoned. Welsh National meeting rescheduled January 8th

Kempton Park - inspection 2.00 pm Boxing Day

Southwell - no inspection currently planned

Wetherby - inspection 9.00 am Boxing Day

Leopardstown - abandoned

Tuesday 28th December

Catterick - abandoned

Ffos Las - course currently covered

Leicester - inspection 8.30 am Boxing Day

Wednesday 29th December

Kelso - abandoned

Thursday 30th December

Haydock - inspection 11.00 am Tuesday 28th December


Makes grim reading, doesn't it? Pass the port, please...

Racing returns

Jim Best's 5/1 shot Anak won the first jump race run for thirteen days when taking the opener at Kempton yesterday. Two and a half hours later Andy Turnell's Micheal Flips took a competitive-looking renewal of the Lanzarote with the minimum of fuss, having eight lengths to spare over 9/2 favourite Duc De Regniere at the line. This evening the winner is quoted a 20/1 shot with William Hill for the Totesport Trophy at Newbury on February 13th.

At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.

Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.

We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?

Some weekend jumping notes

The Sporting Life reports plenty of drama at Ffos Las today - sadly 11/2 chance Manorson broke down after winning the Sir David Mansel Lewis Memorial Beginners' Chase.

David Pipe's charge Seven Is My Number, owned by David Johnson, took the opener at Bangor yesterday - the 9/2 chance beat Khachaturian (7/4) a short head in a relatively fast time. That's his third win on the bounce this autumn, although, according to the Racing Post's comments in running, the horse did everything he could to throw away the chance: '..ridden when wandered right and joined last, had plenty left but made it very hard for rider, cajoled home in front..." The rider who worked the oracle was Timmy Murphy. The horse looks far from straightforward but, despite those comments, clearly possesses ability as he was giving the runner-up ten pounds.

Evan Williams is in the spotlight in the Weekender's 'Straight from the Stable' feature this week and I was intrigued to see Silverburn is now an inmate of the yard. Although this horse, formerly with Paul Nicholls, has a Tolworth Hurdle to his name, I always felt he never quite lived up to expectations, even though Nicholls was quick to talk up his charge's chance when any opportunity arose. After finishing fourth in the Ballymore at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival, Silverburn was, for me, one to take on - his third in the 2007 Feltham behind Joe Lively was a typically frustrating effort. Mr Williams has a reputation for working wonders with animals that have maybe fallen out of love with the game - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn progresses.

Noted from that same Weekender article - State Of Play won't be ready for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and is being aimed at the Grand National; Brenin Cwmtudu has schooled well over fences and 'could make signifcant progress this season' (has five-day entries in two chases at Ludlow on Thursday); Foxhunter winner Cappa Bleu is waiting for the rain to arrive and Fight Club is one to look out for when starting his novice hurdle campaign.

Howard Johnson caught the eye with three winners from just four runners at Carlisle on Friday but the form didn't carry over to Hexham the next day where both Wave Power (evens) and Montoya's Son (6/4) both disappointed. It's early days yet...

A couple of weeks ago Tom Segal, writing in the Weekender, indicated he preferred Flat racing to Jumps as a betting medium. Amongst the reasons he advanced - in chases in particular it was critical for a horse to get into a jumping rhythm and you could never tell beforehand if that was going to happen. I just couldn't resist putting forward a couple of counterpoints, reasons why I'm not so keen on the Flat game as a bettng medium - effect of the draw, traffic problems, less form to go on... ;)

Finally, for those who like their information straight from the horse's mouth, NH trainer Chris Bealby has an interesting blog at chrisbealby.wordpress.com