The 2025 Eider Chase

Eighteen have been declared for tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.10 Newcastle) with the going currently described as good to soft, soft in places. 

Collectors Item carries top weight; I've still to forgive myself for missing him in the Somerset National at Wincanton last time - he won at odds of 14/1 - having given a clear indication of a return to form on his previous start where he finished one and a half lengths behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown.

Jonjo O'Neill's charge was raised four pounds after that win at Wincanton but Jack Hogan's three pound claim offsets most of the increase.

Favourite O'Connell goes for a four-timer here. 

Having won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day by nine and a half lengths (Kelce one length in arrears when falling at the last), connections decided to try their luck down south in a handicap chase at Sandown.

Gavin Sheehan rode one cool race out the back that day, steadily making ground over the last half mile to jump the final fence in fourth and then scoot up the hill to win going away. 

The handicapper has raised the gelding eight pounds for his trouble; without wishing to carp that performance, I noted that five of the eight opponents that day were over nine years of age.

He has shot up 22 pounds since winning at Carlisle on December 1st; Peter Kavangh claims three while Gavin Sheehan rides Passing Well who led three out in the Surrey National at the end of last month but was pipped on the line by Sporting Ace (Major Dundee pulled up).

That looked a hard enough race on heavy ground at Lingfield just three weeks ago; Sporting Ace has gone up five pounds, Passing Well four.

Last year Anglers Crag beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck in this with Major Dundee unseating Tom Bellamy two out when ridden in third. 

Anglers Crag tries again this year off a mark four pounds higher; Brian Ellison's charge was fourth behind Magna Sam in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh 20 days ago, losing two places after the last. Second spot was claimed by Bodhisattva who goes off the same mark again tomorrow.

Brian Ellison hasn't had a jumps winner for 57 days while John McConnell's yard has struggled this winter.

Prince Des Fichaux races from two pounds out of the handicap this time and hasn't shown a lot since that effort in last year's race (behind Bretney twice - in the Highland National at Perth in April and the Scottish Borders National at Kelso in December). Handler Ewan Whillans has sent out two winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight.

Choosethenews won a point over three miles in 2022 but most of his racing under rules to date has been over trips around the two and a half mile mark. He has been well supported in the market during the day and his run behind Giovinco in February might suggest 126 is a lenient mark.

Having been pulled up behind O'Connell on his penultimate start, last time he finished second behind If Not For Dylan over two miles seven and a half furlongs at this track (Lord Roco a close third, Prince Des Fichaux pulled up). 

Lord Roco has yet to win a race over fences.

Ilikedwayurthinkin likes to race up with the pace and, despite his age, comes into this in good form having won easily at the track over three miles six at the end of November and then finishing second under top weight behind Undeniable Alibi at Ayr last month. 

Owned by J.P. McManus, this one has been supported in the market during the day; Ben Haslam hasn't had a jumps winner for 83 days.

Egbert looks the pick of Alan King's two; writing in the RP Weekender the handler tells readers the bug that hit the yard is easing off now and continues:

"This has been the target for Egbert since he won the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in December. 

"He's not an easy horse to catch right but he's working well and the further they go the better - he kept grinding away at Haydock, having been off the bridle a long way out, and he'll be suited by this thorough test of stamina. 

"Major Dundee couldn't handle the absolutely bottomless ground at Lingfield in the Surrey National but he didn't give himself a hard race and he's come out of it fine. 

"He was running well when he unseated two out in last year's Eider, holding third place at the time. He would definitely have been placed and he's five pounds lower now."

I've heard Henry Daly, when discussing Bretney, say that the further they go, the better he goes. 

In the past Alistair Jones has called this ten-year-old 'inconsistent' in the RP Weekender and a quick look at his profile might confirm that opinion with blinkers, cheekpieces and a visor tried on various occasions during his career. 

He seems best when able to lead from the front - on his penultimate start he beat Your Own Story 10 lengths in the Scottish National at Kelso. At the time of writing he's 33/1 with William Hill, having been 40s in places earlier in the day which, to my untrained eye, looks big should he turn up on a going day.

Your Own Story's subsequent sixth in the Welsh Grand National behind Val Dancer reads well enough, although Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to lose his pitch mid race before staying on from two out.

Irish raider History Of Fashion has three chase wins to his name and they've all have come at Down Royal and Fairyhouse - both right-handed tracks. 

Two of those wins have come this term for seven pound claimer Harry Sexton, the most recent a Listed race over three mile five and a half furlongs at the beginning of December.

Back in May Gaboriot won a hunter chase at Cheltenham over a distance of four miles and half a furlong while his third behind King Turgeon in the Great Sefton in November certainly catches the eye.

The chestnut was due to run in the Edinburgh National but was declared a non-runner after a poor scope. He comes to this fresher than a few in the field and the yard has sent out a couple of winners in the past week.

Three of Chemical Warfare's six chase wins have come at Newcastle and he has won over an extended three and a quarter mile trip at Sedgefield. 

I was under the impression the Pipe stable used to target this race in the past but perhaps I'm mistaken as Comply Or Die (2008) is their only previous winner. The yard is going through a quiet spell at the moment - just one win from 21 runs in the past fortnight.

Knockanore goes beyond three miles for the first time.

The lowest official handicap ratings of the winner since Merigo won off 125 in 2009 are:

2016: Rocking Blues 126

2017: Mysteree 127

2024: Anglers Crag 126

In a highly competitive affair I've decided to focus on those in the field that have previously shown some form around the four mile mark: Anglers Crag, Gaboriot, Your Own Story, Bodhisattva, Major Dundee, Bretney and Prince Des Fichaux.

Gaboriot is the each-way suggestion, as I write still 12/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair who pay five places.

The 2024 Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle

Coral Gold Cup day at Newbury tomorrow but I'm off to Newcastle instead where they have been watering to maintain good ground.

13 have been declared for the Rehearsal Chase at 3.20, run over a trip of two miles seven and a half furlongs.

To my mind three would definitely prefer slower going - Jet Plane, Frero Banbou and Anglers Crag - while there are question marks surrounding a few others in the field. 

Market leader The Changing Man has yet to win a chase after six attempts but he appeared to be travelling well enough in fourth when coming to grief in the Badger Beer won by Al Dancer on good ground at Wincanton three weeks ago. 

While most of his form to date is on softer ground, he won a Stratford handicap hurdle on good in March 2022; after that race trainer Colin Tizzard's representative indicated the gelding 'liked the drying ground on that occasion'.

Team Tizzard have been in fine form this season, recording 7 wins from 29 runs in the past fortnight; Hey Big Spender won three renewals of this race for the yard in 2011, 2013 and 2014.

Earlier today The Jukebox Man, trained by Ben Pauling and owned by Harry Redknapp, won the John Francome Novices' Chase at Newbury. Unfortunately Mr Redknapp had an alternative engagement in Cardiff so wasn't at the track to see a comprehensive display.

Tomorrow Bowtogreatness, trained by Ben Pauling and owned by Harry Redknapp and Sophie Pauling, is priced up second favourite for this race. 

Somewhat surprisingly Mr Redknapp hasn't shared his diary arrangements with me so he may, or may not, be at the track but last time out Bowtogreatness made all to beat Destroytheevidence over this trip on good ground at Newbury, form that reads very well. 

That was the gelding's first win in 12 chase starts; afterwards the trainer indicated he expected his charge to 'come on a ton' for the race, implying the win would provide a timely boost to the horse's confidence.

I like Neon Moon but I thought he was a tad lucky to win the Native River at Chepstow in October (raised just four pounds afterwards) as both Pull Again Green and Manofthepeople made separate jumping errors at the third last.

Nevertheless he ran creditably in third behind Chianti Classico at Ascot last time off 136. He goes off the same mark tomorrow but in the past hasn't always backed up one good run with another one.Wind surgery over the summer may have helped his cause in that respect.

The Pipe yard won this with Bonanza Boy (1989); Carvill's Hill (1991); Run For Free (1992); and Junior (2012).

Last week, in a Straight from the Stable article in the RP Weekender, Nick Alexander said of Donny Boy:

"I think White Rhino is very progressive and Donny Boy nearly beat him at Ayr this month. The plan with him is to go back up to 3m and run him in the Rehearsal Chase...

"I'm hoping he can run very well there and we can look at similar top-level handicaps."

The gelding's third behind Sharjah in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at Ayr in April reads well, with the likes of Abuffalosoldier fourth, Marble Sands sixth and Special Rate eighth. 

That said, he has yet to win a race over fences and last time jumped out to his right on occasions; he has drifted in the market today. 

The stable won the 2018 renewal with Lake View Lad.

In contrast Gustavian has been supported in the market and is now as low as 7/1 with some layers. Last time he was hampered by the fall of The Changing Man in the Badger Beer but stayed on to finish a 27 length third behind Al Dancer.

Two years ago, in a Straight from the Stable piece [RP Weekender 23-27.11.22], handler Antony Honeyball said of Gustavian:

"His trouble is that he tends to jump nine of his ten fences like an old pro and then really balls one up."

Stablemate Blackjack Magic won the 2023 renewal of the Badger Beer on seasonal reappearance but wasn't always fluent at the fences thereafter.

Top weight Marble Sands wouldn't be the easiest ride but the grey is certainly talented and beat Colonel Harry (goes in the Coral Gold Cup 3.00 Newbury) in the Colin Parker at Carlisle four weeks ago.

However most of his races to date have been over shorter trips and he could struggle to reverse placings with Donny Boy at Ayr in April.

On his first start for Lizzie Quinlan Special Rate made a bad mistake to unseat Sean (Quinlan) in White Rhino's race at Ayr while both Some Scope and Kinondo Kwetu were pulled up behind Senior Chief at Cheltenham five weeks ago.

Gavin Sheehan reported the former, previously second behind Does He Know in the Grimthorpe in March, 'jumped poorly' and has had wind surgery since.

The latter has some interesting pieces of form to his name this summer and is certainly worth a second look at a price.

Kinondo Kwetu has held an entry in my summer notebooks for the past three years - this year Sam England's charge was noted finishing fourth behind Cruz Control at 25/1 in the Freebooter at Aintree in April.

Unfortunately he appeared to regress on his next three starts (unplaced, pulled up, pulled up) before winning a five runner handicap chase at Uttoxeter off 137. After that race jockey Jonathan England said:

"Kinondo Kwetu had lost his confidence, he's always been a horse who had a little think about it. 

"Hopefully he can get going again. It's very much confidence with him."

He subsequently won at Worcester at the end of August (Hang In There second, Pull Again Green third) and then finished second at Perth behind Hidden Depths (has form this month with Chianti Classico and Pic D'Orhy) before the no-show at Cheltenham.  

He pulled up on his only other start at Cheltenham behind Whacker Clan in October 2023. There's (just) a hint he may prefer a flat track.

He certainly will appreciate underfoot conditions and, on his best form, looks likely to outrun odds of 33/1; I'm hoping he doesn't overthink things and manages to bring his 'A' game to proceedings. 

33/1 with some layers, Kinondo Kwetu is 28/1 with Sky who pay an extra place.

Kinondo Kwetu is the each-way suggestion, 28/1 with Sky paying five places.  

The 2024 Coral Trophy at Kempton

After the recent 'Last man standing wins' debate in the Racing Post it will be interesting to see how many complete the course in tomorrow's Eider Chase (2.08 Newcastle) which will be run over four miles one and a half furlongs on heavy ground - thoughts go back to Companero beating Giles Cross 30 lengths in the 2011 renewal with Morgan Be the only other finisher of the 12 who set off.

Major Dundee would be of interest in the Eider - provided he brought his A game to the table (third in the 2022 Scottish Grand National; won the 2023 Midlands Grand National). 

Alan King's charge certainly didn't do that in the Classic Chase at Warwick six weeks ago. The gelding ran a full-blown stinker in a first-time visor and was one of the first beaten; he also happened to be my selection for the race.

Writing in the RP Weekender the following week Mr King seemed to imply that maybe The Major wasn't quite as keen as he had once been but the handler appears a tad more upbeat in this week's edition of the same paper:

"He seems in good order at home and he'll retain the visor he wore last time out." 

At the time of writing he's 10/1 with bet365, Coral and Betfred who are all paying four places but I had my fingers burnt last tine so I'm off to Kempton instead where, I have no doubt, my selection in the Coral Trophy will take a leaf out of Major Dundee's book and substantially raise the temperature applied to my digits.

The going at Kempton is described as soft, with the lake bend heavy.

The Dan Skelton trained course and distance winner Flegmatik, favourite through the week, has just been replaced by Blackjack Magic at the head of the market. 

Ideally Flegmatik would want better ground. 

Blackjack Magic, one of three runners for Anthony Honeyball, won the Badger Beer at Wincanton in the autumn, with stablemates Forward Plan sixth and Sam Brown pulled up. The three do battle once again tomorrow; Blackjack Magic sports first-time blinkers as on his two subsequent runs he made significant jumping errors at the business end of the race.

Forward Plan has shown his very best form on good ground while 12-year-old Sam Brown carries top weight and appears to have been revitalised by the application of a visor. On his penultimate start he won the Veterans' Final at Warwick and then finished less than 10 length behind Shishkin in the Denman Chase at Newbury.

Bowtogreatness shaped as though this return to three miles would suit when fifth behind Ginny's Destiny over an extended two and a half miles at Cheltenham four weeks ago. 

Il Ridoto races beyond two miles four and a half furlongs for the first time; Lord Baddesley tries further than two miles six and a half furlongs for the first time. 

The booking of Rex Dingle for Lord Baddesley suggests this one is the main hope for the Chris Gordon yard which is in sparkling form - 5 wins from 12 runs in past fortnight - in marked comparison to earlier in the season.  

Having won twice at Kempton the mare Tweed Skirt clearly likes the place but is another who has, to date, shown her best form on better ground.

Veteran Al Dancer has never won beyond two miles five.

Another veteran, Cap Du Nord, won the 2022 renewal of this race off a mark of 127 and popped up at Ascot this time last year off the same mark. 

He hasn't won since and is now officially rated 118 over fences. He's eight pounds wrong at the weights but Tristan Durrell claims three; it wouldn't be wise to completely write off a revival.

Killer Kane was fifth in this race last year (Flegmatik second, Cap Du Nord ninth); he raced from out of the handicap that day yet carries 10-7 tomorrow. Following wind surgery in December, he was beaten by the well-regarded Highstakesplayer and Iconic Muddle over course and distance 15 days ago. 

Unanswered Prayers underwent wind surgery last month having finished behind Tweed Skirt over course and distance the day after Boxing Day. 

Lord Baddesley's stablemate came to grief at the final flight at Ascot in November in a race won by Victtorino and was then hampered by a faller just after the last over the same course and distance three weeks later. 

He has been backed down from 25/1 earlier and is now as low as 17/2 in a place. 

Freddie Gingell was initially booked to ride Unanswered Prayers but the five pound claimer has been re-routed to Chepstow where he rides Monmiral. 

Paul Nicholls' charge reverts to hurdles in a Pertemps qualifier (3.08) after struggling in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham and a novice chase at Musselburgh. The first four home qualify for the Pertemps Final at the Festival and I'm guessing the plan is to get qualified.

 I digress.

This isn't a good race for favourites; I'm going to side with one who has form over the trip on soft ground and course and distance winner Killer Kane fits the bill. 

His main target is the Topham at Aintree in the spring - he finished third in the race last year - but I'm hoping he can show up well here on his second run after wind surgery.

Killer Kane is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing with most layers paying four places. 

The 2023 Eider Chase at Newcastle

Sooner or later it was bound to happen. 

The doc took one look at my bloods and, in no uncertain terms, duly announced it was time for the statins.

I picked up the prescribed medication and, before starting to pop the pills, thought it judicious to read the accompanying documentation which referenced in some detail a number of possible side effects: nausea; wind; indigestion; constipation; diarrhoea; sexual difficulties; headaches; vomiting; belching; backache; insomnia; fatigue.

Now, I was just about to pick up the phone to point out to the doc that the listed side effects constituted a fairly accurate summation of the past 40 odd years when, all of a sudden, I was distracted by a report that Lucinda Russell was 'absolutely delighted' with the weight of 10-05 allocated to Corach Rambler in this year's National... 

I'd imagine Christian Williams would have been nearly as pleased as Lucinda when Cap Du Nord was raised five after winning the LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase by a comfortable seven lengths at Ascot last Saturday. 

Tomorrow his charge tries to repeat last year's victory in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton, with Cian Quirke - claiming five - in the plate.

It was twelve months ago this very weekend Christian Williams sent out Win My Wings to win the Eider Chase at Newcastle and barely twenty minutes later Cap Du Nord and Kitty's Light to finish first and second respectively in the Kempton feature.

And five weeks on Win My Wings beat Kitty's Light seven lengths in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr.

The Williams yard may have had a quiet time of things so far this term but up at Newcastle Kitty's Light - Jack Tudor up - tries to emulate Win My Wings in this year's Eider (3.25) and the bookmakers seem to think there's one horse in the race. 

It's easy enough to see why - after finishing third behind Hewitt in the bet365 Chase at Sandown last April off a mark of 145, Kitty's Light goes off 132 tomorrow. 

A modest third behind Ansaam at Kempton last month hinted at a revival; this seven-year-old has a few miles on the clock for one so young and at the prices makes little appeal for betting purposes - the last seven-year-old to come home in front was Portrait King in 2012.

The favourite faces fourteen rivals (thirteen now Young Bull is a non-runner) with the going at Newcastle currently described as good to soft. Just nine days ago a brouhaha broke out at the track after the going was abruptly changed to good, good to firm in places.

Sam's Adventure won the 2021 renewal off 139 and races off 125 tomorrow.

Brian Ellison's charge comes into this on the back of a win in a Catterick Veterans' Handicap Chase last month but finished behind No Cruise Yet at Haydock in November and behind Bushypark in the North Yorkshire Grand National.

Bushypark was back to his best on heavy ground at Catterick that day. In December 2021 he beat Doyen Breed off a mark of 132; drying ground is a concern.

With just five chase starts to his name, The Galloping Bear hasn't had much racing. 

This time last year he beat Bristol De Mai in the Grand National Trial at Haydock but was subsequently disqualified when a banned substance was detected in the sample provided. His chance is respected.

Bavington Bob has the assistance of Brian Hughes in the plate but Ann Hamilton's charge has jumped out to his right on occasions and doesn't looked guaranteed to stay; connections fit blinkers for the first time.

To my mind top weight Eva's Oskar looked to have a hard enough race at Sandown three weeks ago, fading out of contention from two out. The last horse to carry top weight to victory was Comply Or Die in 2008.

All three of Houston Texas' wins to date have come at Carlisle. He was outpaced three out here last time but rallied well before finishing fourth behind French Paradoxe.  

No Cruise Yet also likes Carlisle but his tendency to jump right on a left-handed track isn't ideal. 

That said, Sam England's inmate won over an extended three and a half miles ay Haydock in November and finished second in the North Wales National Handicap Chase at Bangor 15 days ago. He races from two pounds out of the handicap.

In Rem was well backed for the London National at Sandown in December but he hit the third and came to grief at the eighth; the jumping remains a work in progress.

Shanty Alley is better judged on his second at Newbury behind Grumpy Charley. Last time he never really recovered from a blunder at the first in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster won by Cooper's Cross.

Amateur has won the past two renewals of the West Wales National at Ffos Las and that may well be the target again. His most recent effort - sixth in a Hereford handicap chase behind Only The Bold at odds of 125/1 - merits respect. Paul Kealy highlights his chance in the Weekender along with that of Rath An Iuir. 

Rose Dobbin's charge finished sixth behind Win My Wings in last year's race but didn't appear to quite stay the trip, weakening from three out. Cheekpieces are fitted for the first time.

Both One More Fleurie and Mighty Thunder have shown little since the spring of 2021. 

The former was pulled up in last year's Scottish National while the latter won the 2021 Scottish National off 144 but has failed to complete in five of his eight starts since. He races off 132 tomorrow, Patrick Wadge claims seven and the yard is in good form but a leap of faith is required.

Young Bull has just been declared a non-runner.

Here's a list of recent winners:

2009 winner: Merigo (125); top-rated: Harmony Brig (136)

2010 No race

2011 winner: Companero (132); top-rated: Comply Or Die (144)

2012 winner: Portrait King (131); top-rated: Mister Marker (135)

2013 No race

2014 winner: Wyck Hill (133); top-rated: Junior (145)

2015 winner: Milborough (134); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (147)

2016 winner: Rocking Blues (126); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (144)

2017 winner: Mysteree (127); top-rated: Straidnahanna (139)

2018 winner: Baywing (140); top-rated: Chase The Spud (149)

2019 winner: Crosspark (135); top-rated: Daklondike (148)

2020 No race

2021 winner: Sam's Adventure (139); top-rated Crosspark (150)

2022 winner: Win My Wings (132); top-rated Domaine De L'Isle (144)

A strong pace looks likely with Shanty Alley, Bushypark, One More Fleurie and No Cruise Yet among those who like to race prominently.  

A very competitive renewal. With showers forecast before the off, a chance is taken with Bushypark in the hope the ground doesn't dry out completely.

Bushypark is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 11/1 with both Paddy Power and William Hill who are paying five places. 

Now, what the hell have I done with those tablets?

Eider Chase 2022

Following changes made in 2020, the Eider Chase, now run over a distance of four miles one furlong and 56 yards, is, by my reckoning, the third longest race in the calendar behind the Aintree Grand National and the Midlands Grand National run at Uttoxeter. 

Unfortunately the race fell foul of the weather in 2020; last year Sam's Adventure became the first winner over the extended distance, beating Crossley Tender threequarters of a length with Salty Boy a further 10 lengths adrift in third.

The going is currently described as good to soft; they're due off at 3.15.

Of 17 declared for tomorrow's renewal, I've arbitrarily concentrated on seven in the field that have shown some kind of form over a distance beyond three and a half miles, although I have to admit the drying ground might negate the validity of that premise to a certain degree; Checkitout only just fails to meet this threshold.

The seven referenced are: Eclair Surf; Lake View Lad; Potters Corner; Achille; Innisfree Lad; Gwencily Berbas; and Cash To Ash.

Three of those seven - Lake View Lad, Potters Corner and Achille - are aged 12; the last 12 year old to oblige was the Jenny Pitman trained Willsford in 1995.

Eclair Surf proved something of a revelation in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time out, making all to win by 13 lengths (Achille seventh). 

The horse hadn't been too fluent at the fences up to that point but he jumped really well at Warwick and has been raised 10 pounds for his trouble. Earlier today he was replaced at the head of the market by Irish raider History Of Fashion who looks to have been given every chance by the British handicapper.

Lake View Lad's seventh behind Mighty Thunder in the Scottish Grand National last April off a mark of 155 reads well; Nick Alexander's charge hasn't been in quite the same form this term and races off 142.

I'm prepared to forgive Potters Corner his most recent effort when he was pulled up in the Welsh National at Chepstow - only five finished that day (Achille fourth); Captain Drake, pulled up in the same race, won the Devon National at Exeter earlier this afternoon. 

On his penultimate start Potters Corner was beaten a nose by Diesel D'Allier in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham; a reproduction of that form would give Christian Williams' charge a chance and jockey Ellis Collier can claim seven. 

The yard is currently operating at a 27% win strike rate; the market suggests stablemate Win My Wings has a better chance on her first try beyond three and a quarter miles..

It's difficult to see the Venetia Williams trained grey Achille reversing Warwick form with Eclair Surf.

On his penultimate run Gwencily Berbas looked impressive winning at Exeter but David Pipe's charge appeared to be taken out of his comfort zone by Valadom and deep ground next time at Sandown and his jumping suffered as a result. 

Back in December Cash To Ash and Innisfree Lad finished second and third respectively behind Big River in the Scottish Borders National at Kelso; the pair look closely matched again. That day Cash To Ash may have finished slightly closer to the winner but for a mistake at the last.

Cash To Ash has since finished second behind Sidi Ismael in the Lincolnshire National and then second again behind Big River at Kelso while Innisfree Lad has won at Plumpton but was well beaten at Newbury and on a return visit to Plumpton. 

I marginally prefer Cash To Ash but stable form is a concern and his profile doesn't match that of recent winners:

2009 winner: Merigo (125); top-rated: Harmony Brig (136)

2010 No race

2011 winner: Companero (132); top-rated: Comply Or Die (144)

2012 winner: Portrait King (131); top-rated: Mister Marker (135)

2013 No race

2014 winner: Wyck Hill (133); top-rated: Junior (145)

2015 winner: Milborough (134); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (147)

2016 winner: Rocking Blues (126); top-rated: Shotgun Paddy (144)

2017 winner: Mysteree (127); top-rated: Straidnahanna (139)

2018 winner: Baywing (140); top-rated: Chase The Spud (149)

2019 winner: Crosspark (135); top-rated: Daklondike (148)

2020 No race

2021 winner: Sam's Adventure (139); top-rated Crosspark (150)

(Seven of the ten winners listed carried a weight between 10-13 and 11-01.)

Cash To Ash may prove well-named but he stays and has been in consistent form this term. 

With William Hill, Paddy Power and Sky Bet paying six places Cash To Ash is the each-way suggestion, a 16/1 chance at the time of writing.

Postscript: Strong Economy has been declared a non-runner this evening leaving a field of 16.

Eider Chase 2021

Last year the amendments Newcastle Racecourse announced to the running of the Eider Chase were of little consequence as the meeting was abandoned due to a waterlogged track.

This year's renewal will be the first run over the revised distance of four miles one furlong and 56 yards. Don't quote me but, after the Aintree Grand National, I think this race may the longest in the calendar.

12 have been declared for tomorrow's renewal with the going currently described as soft, heavy in places; at the time of writing Salty Boy and Sam's Adventure head the market. 

Sam's Adventure went into a number of notebooks on his penultimate start when he comfortably beat Sojourn over three miles one and a half furlongs at Haydock with Salty Boy, in receipt of 11 pounds, six and a quarter lengths behind the winner in third; next time out Sam parted company with jock Ryan Mania in the Haydock race won by Royal Pagaille. 

Back in September Brian Ellison said:

"This lad [Sam's Adventure] loves a trip and plenty of mud....

The big target for him this season will be the Welsh National, where you would expect him to get his preferred conditions." 

Last month Salty Boy, yet to win over fences, was sent off  9/2 joint second favourite for the Sussex National at Plumpton over a trip of three miles four and a half furlongs. He finished sixth behind Seaston Spirit, beaten just under six lengths, with connections indicating the sharp track didn't suit.

On revised terms Salty Boy and Sam's Adventure look closely matched.

Crosspark did me a big favour winning this two years ago off a mark of 135; tomorrow he carries top weight racing off 150. Caroline Bailey's charge has finished second on four occasions this season - and has been raised eight pounds for his trouble. Comply Or Die (2008) was the last horse to carry top weight to victory (off a mark of 139). To date, Crosspark has shown his very best form on good or good to soft ground.

Big River seems to have been around for ever. 

His fifth in the Ultima at Cheltenham last year reads well, beaten just over three lengths, as does his fifth in the 2019 Scottish National. Eighth in the rescheduled Welsh National last month, the ground underneath the required frost covers probably proved better than ideal for this one once they were removed. Perhaps I'm being a tad unfair to the old boy but over the years I've felt his jumping hasn't always been quite up to scratch; of his seven wins under rules, six have come at Kelso.

For his age The Dutchman doesn't have that many miles on the clock. 

On his penultimate start he was pipped on the line by Late Romantic over a trip of three miles one and a half in a veterans' chase at Haydock. Last time he held a narrow lead when taking a crashing fall four from home in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day.

Previously with David Dennis, Cyclop clocked up three of his four chase wins following the move to Tom Symonds' yard last October. Now in the care of Matt Sheppard, he has been kept busy enough over the winter months; the booking of Brian Hughes here catches the eye.

Crossley Tender is another who has been kept on the go - this will be his ninth start since October. His defeat of Samuel Jackson last month was franked earlier this afternoon when that one beat Tea Time On Mars a neck in the Devon National Handicap Chase at Exeter. 

Springfield Fox has struggled in the jumping department this term. Connections try cheekpieces while David Bass travels north for this one ride.

Those not already mentioned race from out of the handicap. 

Little Red Lion lost his confidence on his last run over the larger obstacles, eventually coming to grief five from home; since then he returned to winning ways over hurdles at Chepstow. 

On the face of it, this one doesn't have an obvious chance but I'm wary - I'm sure I can recall the yard having a stab or two at this race in the past and, of course, Comply Or Die won in 2008. If Ben Jones can do the necessary, he'll be able to claim three of the five pounds 'overweight'; in the last 12 months Ben's lowest riding weight is recorded as 9-12.

The mare Haul Us In (47 lengths behind Tea Time On Mars at Bangor last time) is probably the stable's second string and Friends Don't Ask is 27 pounds 'wrong' but from three pounds out of the handicap Strong Economy is worthy of a second look. 

Last time out this one won on heavy ground over three miles three at Ayr and he comes into this in decent form - and a good deal fresher than a few of his rivals. He hails from the yard that sent out 2015 winner Milborough. 20 of the 21 starts to date have been at Ayr (the other one at Perth) so I'm hoping a change of scenery might eke out some further improvement, together with the first-time cheekpieces.

For those with a (particularly) strong constitution Strong Economy is the each-way suggestion. At the time of writing Paddy Power offer 14/1 and pay one fifth the odds four places.

Regular contributor TW has provided his ratings and selection for this race:

Vertem Eider Handicap Chase

RTG,Horse,WC
163,CROSSPARK(GB),39.1
166,BIG RIVER(IRE),17.4
163,CYCLOP(IRE),15.6
165,CROSSLEY TENDER(GB),11.1
166,SALTY BOY(IRE),8.5
160,SAM'S ADVENTURE(GB),3.3
158,THE DUTCHMAN(IRE),3.2
162,SPRINGFIELD FOX(GB),0.4
155,STRONG ECONOMY(IRE),0.4
161,HAUL US IN(IRE),0.4
157,LITTLE RED LION(IRE),0.4
138,FRIENDS DON'T ASK(GB),0.4

11YO Crosspark running off a career high mark of 150 surely not? But with most of his rivals having one or more questions to answer it is perhaps not beyond the realms of possibility.

The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase 2020

The good news: racegoers will be allowed back at certain tracks from Wednesday next week.  

The bad news: there will be tiers before Christmas (as my dear old Ma always used to tell us around this time of year). 

The Ladbrokes Trophy Chase - the Hennessy Gold Cup - is the highlight on the second day of Newbury's Winter Carnival meeting. Eighteen have been declared with the going currently described as good, good to soft in places.

At the time of writing Vinndication and Kildisart share favouritism,

Vinndication finished second behind Cyrname in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby four weeks ago (Aye Right third); Kim Bailey's charge did well to finish just two lengths adrift of the winner as his jumping was pretty sketchy - and it looked positively hairy during a schooling session at the racecourse earlier this week. Some feel the gelding is better going right-handed but he has previously run and jumped well at Cheltenham (fourth behind The Conditional and Kildisart in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March, Mister Malarky pulled up); connections fit cheekpieces for the first time in the hope they'll help the cause.

Kildisart was beaten a neck by The Conditional in the Ultima and meets that rival three pounds better off; with a nice pipe-opener over hurdles under his belt (Copperhead pulled up), Ben Pauling's charge has been well supported in the market while The Conditional appears to be drifting on this seasonal debut. The horse finished a fine second behind De Rasher Counter in this race last year (Beware The Bear fourth, Mister Malarky sixth, Regal Encore pulled up) but now races off a ten pounds higher mark. 

After that effort The Conditional didn't appear to stay the extended trip of the Classic Chase at Warwick in January but I've seen a comment suggesting there were possible excuses that day and I'm just wondering whether connections are considering a repeat attempt this year. 

To my mind Black Op has never really convinced over the larger obstacles but Secret Investor was impressive beating Potterman seven lengths on good ground at Chepstow last time; his tendency to jump markedly right that day remains the worry.

Course and distance winner Copperhead looks the pick of the two Tizzard runners with connections clearly expecting a big run. He went to the Cheltenham Festival in top form but, carrying my money, he went out like a light in the RSA and his most recent effort at Wetherby didn't offer much encouragement either. His chance is respected but I can't support him on this occasion.

Stablemate Mister Malarky, sixth last year, starts from a mark one pound lower tomorrow; the fitting of first-time blinkers and the good ground could help the cause. He beat Black Corton two lengths in the Betway Chase at Kempton in February with Kildisart six lengths adrift in fifth. That form reads well but this one is a moody character who wouldn't be guaranteed to put his best foot forward.

Kim Bailey's second string Two For Gold was beaten some 17 lengths by Copperhead in the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase at Ascot and on the balance of his form looks short enough in the market.

Ultra consistent Potterman has made hay over the summer and was pipped a short head by El Presente in the Badger Beers at Wincanton three weeks ago; Alan King's charge has been placed in nine of his 11 starts to date. He goes off the same mark tomorrow but is due to go up five pounds.

The two on the short list are Cloth Cap and Aye Right. 

The former carries the minimum ten stones but is guaranteed to stay having finished third behind Takingrisks in the 2019 Scottish National. 

The latter meets Vinndication seven pounds better off for five lengths but I'm concerned about how well he'll see out this extended three mile two furlong trip. Unfortunately handler Harriet Graham misses the race after being run over by her own lorry... 

In the hope the beast gets on better with the lorry on the long journey down, Aye Right is the each-way selection. At the time of writing the horse is 10/1 with Betfair who pay six places.

**

'Nicky Henderson has a particular way with fillies and mares and I'd think long and hard before you decide to lay one,' was a piece of unsolicited advice proffered to me by a tweed-clad gent in a racecourse bar a few years ago. 

Now, that's an opening gambit, and just for a minute I wondered whether I'd accidentally walked onto the set of a Carry On film, or, even worse, into a scene from a Jilly Cooper bonkbuster. 

I played it straight and told the gent concerned Polly Peachum was my favourite mare in training, named as she was after a character from The Beggar's Opera. That answer seemed to have the desired effect and the old boy sloped off to annoy someone else...

Mr Henderson saddles two high profile mares tomorrow - Epatante in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle (2.05) and Marie's Rock in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury (2.25). 

Apparently Epatante translates as 'Amazing' and while it's no surprise to see the champion hurdler priced up an odds-on chance, race-fit rivals Sceau Royal and Silver Streak look sure to provide stiff opposition. With Not So Sleepy and Cornerstone Lad in the field, a decent pace seems assured.

Epatante won last year's renewal of the Gerry Feilden off a mark of 137 so it's easy to see why layers have priced up Marie's Rock favourite with her current rating of 141. That said, her last run was 334 days ago and a number in the field are rated in the 140s including Botox Has (146); Sebastopol (142); Milkwood (141); Thyme White (141); and stablemate Floressa (141). 

Milkwood was my each-way play in the Greatwood before the rain arrived. The ground will suit here but the thing is, no matter how hard I try, I just can't forget the words of that gent in the tweed suit...

**

Finally, I intend to take an each-way interest in Mick Maestro in the 1.43 at Doncaster. 

Ashington looked unlucky when badly hampered by a faller in Tegerek's race at Cheltenham and Kevin Brogan claims seven. 

I saw Mick Maestro finish second behind New Agenda at Ludlow just over two years ago; the horse was with Alan King at the time and effectively Richard Johnson gained first run on the winner. 

Off the track for 644 days, Mick ran a stormer at odds of 66/1 on his first run for Nick Kent, finishing just under seven lengths behind Kaizer (fifth in a competitive handicap hurdle at Haydock last weekend). A lot of his racing has been on right-handed tracks and the 'bounce' factor is a concern but the better ground here is a big positive; at the time of writing bet365 offer 14/1.

Eider Chase 2020

Nike Vaporfly running shoes have thrown up some difficult questions for the world athletics ruling body in recent weeks. In some cases, athletes have reported a 4% improvement on the time taken to run a marathon; they have been described as 'magic' shoes and 'likened to doping'.

Yesterday, a sufficiently well-refreshed reader, swaying gently in the wind, beckoned me over and proceeded to suggest that, using similar patented technology, Nike should consider branching out into the manufacture of thoroughbred racing plates. Perhaps brand them 'Horsefly' (not 'Horseplay' - a singular point on which we could both agree). He continued along the lines that these hi-tech racing plates should then be fitted to all the blog's selections in the future - that way down-at-heel readers might at least retain a modicum of hope of receiving some small return on the wagers suggested.

Quite cutting remarks, I think you'd agree.

'A sort of shoe-in, do you mean?' I enquired. 'Have a sole!'

Too late. Showing plenty of toe, he'd already hoofed it - straight into The Trotting Mare across the road.

Tomorrow's meeting at Newcastle is subject to an eight o'clock inspection; the going is currently described as heavy, soft in places. Twelve have been declared for the Eider Chase (2.45) which this year will be run over the slightly longer distance of four miles one furlong and 56 yards.

In 2018 Baywing won carrying 11-00 off a mark of 140 while last year Crosspark won off a mark of 135 carrying 10-13. Tomorrow Prime Venture heads the handicap off a mark of 136 which suggests this year's renewal may not be among the best but that's unlikely to make finding the winner any easier.

A number in the field wouldn't be guaranteed to see out this trip in this ground but Prime Venture isn't one of them and trainer's daughter Isabel Williams can claim seven. His fourth in the Welsh National behind Potters Corner reads well and, although he has yet to score over the larger obstacles, his handler hopes 'his time won't be long in coming'.

Favourite Petite Power comes into this in very good form. Fergal O'Brien's charge finished third behind Kimberlite Candy in Warwick's Classic Chase and before that was pipped a neck by Belle Empress - Belle Empress finished a creditable third in the Devon National at Exeter earlier today. Mr Liam Harrison claims seven pounds.

Owned by The Black Horse Hotel Bridgnorth, Calipso Collonges was a well-beaten second behind Lord Du Mesnil in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock last time. That still rates a good effort and his handler has said 'I can see him winning a nice handicap somewhere this season'. This is his first try at a trip beyond three miles two furlongs.

On the other hand Hugo 'N' Taz won the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen over three miles three and half furlongs on his first run in this country. Quoting David Pipe in this week's Weekender:

"I would be disappointed if he didn't build on that next time. He is in the Eider on Saturday and and could be a possible for the National Hunt Chase next month."

Three and a half weeks ago Fortified Bay beat Hill Sixteen two lengths here with Glittering Love third and Ascot De Bruyere fourth. Fortified Bay has been raised seven for that effort and on a strict interpretation of the form still has the beating of the third and fourth. That was over a trip just shy of three miles and clearly the market expects more from the Paul and Clare Rooney owned Glittering Love who sports first-time cheekpieces. Quoting handler Nicky Richards from the Weekender 04-08.12.19:

"He's a grand horse who has been very successful so far. He won four of his five point-to-points and began his chasing career on a very good mark last season... I think he could have another good winter given the rub of the green. He wants proper soft ground and stays well." 

Alminar won last time out and Financial Outcome has undergone wind surgery since finishing third behind Fortescue at Uttoxeter. Both are aged seven - only one seven-year-old has come home in front since Domaine De Pron won in 1998 - Portrait King in 2012.

Shanroe Santos is inconsistent but would have his chance on a going day while Very First Time didn't appear to stay when fourth behind Hugo 'N' Taz in the Lincolnshre National.

A most open affair; I'm considering two at a price. On his first run after wind surgery Donna's Delight won well from the front over three miles three at Ayr last time out. On a tenuous line through Lord Du Mesnil, Calipso Collonges has the beating of Sandy Thomson's charge.

At a much bigger price Ascot De Bruyere has a very good record at this track and on his only try beyond three miles finished a creditable sixth - beaten under 12 lengths - behind Harry The Viking in the 2018 Scottish Borders National at Kelso.

I still haven't forgiven myself for failing to look more closely at Smooth Stepper at Haydock last weekend (put off by those veterans' chase runs) so this week I'm going to take an each-way chance on Ascot de Bruyere and hope that, although a lot of his racing has been over two and half to three miles, he can see out the marathon trip in the manner he did at Kelso; Danny McMenamin does his bit for the cause by claiming three.

At the time of writing William Hill offer 28/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places. Ascot De Bruyere is the each-way suggestion.

Now, if only he could race in those 'magic' plates...

Eider Chase 2019

There's a top-class card at Kempton tomorrow with Angels Breath set to go in the Dovecote (3.00) but with just ten declared for a trappy-looking 888Sport Handicap Chase (3.35) - the favourite has failed to oblige in the past decade - I'm off to Newcastle in search of some each-way value in the Eider Chase (2.40). A field of sixteen face the starter; the going is described as good to soft, soft in places.

According to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) the eider is the UK's heaviest duck and its fastest flying - and that looks suspiciously like a tip for top-weight Daklondike to me.

Comply Or Die won this race for trainer David Pipe in 2008 and six weeks later added the Grand National to the haul. Daklondike is clearly talented but he has never looked the easiest of rides although, to be fair to the horse, he appeared unlucky when unseating Tom Scudamore at Haydock last time.

It's no surprise to see Vicente at the head of the market. Paul Nicholls' charge won the Scottish Grand National in 2016 and 2017 off a mark of 146 and he races off exactly the same mark tomorrow. His third at Taunton last month should have put him spot on for this.

Vicente won't mind drying ground but a number in the field would prefer more cut and Baywing certainly falls into that category; last year's winner beat West Of The Edge four lengths on heavy ground. Trainer Nicky Richards seems decidedly more bullish about Baywing's stablemate Progress Drive on his first start after wind surgery - Brian Hughes rides.

Just Your Type is very short in the market for one with just three chase starts to his name. He appeared to have the spoils in the bag when coming to grief two out at Exeter last time; since 1989 only two seven-year-olds have come home in front - Domaine De Pron in 1998 and Portrait King in 2012.

The ground shouldn't inconvenience Ange Des Mirabeaux but following two wins he's now 17lbs higher in the handicap. The trip is an unknown but, that said, this has been the plan all season and I prefer Dan Skelton's charge to Kimberlite Candy whom handler Tom Lacey described as 'inconsistent' in his 'Straight from the Stable' tour (Weekender 07-11.11.18), going on to say '...I'd admit he could be a hard horse to catch right.'

Potters Corner is part-owned by Wales centre Jonathan Davies who will presumably be preparing for the match against England when this race is run. Potters Corner was still in with a shout when coming to grief two from home at Wincanton last time; the nine-year-old has just seven chase starts to his name.

A fourteen-year-old has never won but two contest tomorrow's renewal - Raz De Maree and Harry The Viking. The former would want more cut but the latter deserves a mention for his Scottish Borders National win at Kelso in December (Progress Drive third, West Of The Edge eighth).

On a line through Callet Mad, Crosspark, third in a competitive renewal of the Classic Chase at Warwick six weeks ago, should finish ahead of Harry The Viking and should also handle underfoot conditions. Here he races off the same mark of 135 as at Warwick.

The Charlie Mann trained Morney Wing is another outsider in with a sniff. He looked to have a hard enough race the last day when holding Red Infantry a length in the London National at Sandown but connections have given their charge plenty of time to recover.

Rock On Fruity goes beyond three miles one for the first time; owned by JP McManus, he'll be worth monitoring in the market.

I feel Irish raider Kilkishen may struggle beyond three and a half miles on the balance of his form to date while Mysteree won this in 2017 but has not been competitive of late.

Racing Post ratings indicate Vicente is the one to beat but at the prices I'm going to take an each-way interest in Crosspark, one of two Jamie Moore rides at the track for Caroline Bailey (the other is Don't Tell The Wife in the 1.35). At the time of writing several layers offer 16/1 one fifth the odds five places while William Hill offer 14/1 one fifth the odds seven places.

To my eye Crosspark looked as though he would stay further the last day - Crosspark is the each-way selection, generally available at 16/1 one fifth the odds five places.

I'd like to conclude this post with a slight digression...

Last month the Queen's mare No Trumps (sire: Black Sam Bellamy; dam: Magic Score) was sent off a 33/1 chance in a low-key novice hurdle at Warwick and, after running in snatches, finished a well-beaten fourth.

Speaking personally, if the horse's name brought anything in particular to mind, it was the sort of hand my father complained he was habitually dealt at whist drives in the local church hall - do those things still take place? - but the following day a wry snippet appeared in The Times Diary (aka TMS in recognition of its current location at Thomas More Square, Wapping, E1) highlighting the pre-eminence of the owner and linking the mare's name to Donald Trump and members of his family.

Somewhat taken with this general persiflage, I decided to mail a couple of other equine suggestions to the Diary, including Getaway Trump (fourth in last Saturday's re-arranged Betfair Hurdle at Ascot) and, for beleaguered British bettors besieged by the Brexit brouhaha, Article Fifty.

And, bless my old boots, editor Patrick Kidd replied saying he was potentially interested in the Article Fifty horse.

Now, the beast in question was declared to run at Wetherby on Tuesday so before racing I provided Mr Kidd with some points of interest, the regular stuff, you know - owners: Swanee River Partnership; Mr Richard, not Boris, Johnson doing the steering; required major (wind) surgery last November; competing against the likes of Thelongwayaround, All Hail Caesar - feel free to make up your own comments and insert them here.

In the event, second favourite Article Fifty ran something of a full-blown stinker, finishing eleventh of the thirteen starters, beaten over 90 lengths. It was clear hold-up tactics hadn't worked and questionable whether the administered surgery had, while comments-in-running included terms such as 'headway', swiftly followed by 'soon lost place' and 'behind'. Simply all too bad to be true.

Mr Kidd though was unimpressed - a sort of thanks, PG, but no thanks, didn't really work, the sort of knockback I've become accustomed to receiving after every job interview I've bothered to turn up for over the past 25 years and, with this particular rejection, was there just the slightest suggestion the copy hadn't quite met the exigent editorial standards in place at such an august publication as The Times?

Gutted, I took the hint and instead had a quick word with the editor of this blog, a scruffy, indolent individual, often to be found in the shed at the bottom of the garden reeking of ale and old socks - to quote my dear old mother, 'a man who could use a damned good wash'.

He had no editorial qualms whatsoever.

The Betfred Eider Chase 2016

Back in February 2014 I wrote:

"Many will concentrate on Kempton tomorrow but rather than put up half a dozen short-priced losers on that card, I've chosen to exercise a modicum of self-discipline and restricted myself to putting up one bigger-priced loser at Newcastle."

I'm going to adopt a similar approach this evening as on that occasion I tipped Wyck Hill for the Eider and, bless my old boots, David Bridgwater's charge obliged at odds of 9/1, having been as big as 16/1 the night before.

Afterwards, in what can only be described as a severe state of shock, I wrote:

"I haven't bothered to go back and check the fine detail but, in very broad terms, I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years..."  

Wyck Hill goes again in tomorrow's Eider (Newcastle 2.50) but he fell at the sixth in last year's renewal and at the age of twelve it's hard to drum up confidence - he was pulled up on his last racecourse appearance in the 2015 Grand National.

Last year Miborough beat Summery Justice a length and a half with Woodford County eighteen lengths adrift in third (Portrait King ninth, Beforeall tenth, Shotgun Paddy UR and, as discussed, Wyck Hill F).

Of the first three home, at the age of nine Woodford County makes some appeal off a mark just two pounds higher. This term he has won over three miles six at Exeter in December and finished fifth behind the Kerry Lee trained Mountainous in the Welsh National, beaten just a neck for fourth spot by Saroque who claimed second in the Devon National earlier today.

Kerry Lee, enjoying a rich vein of form in this type of race, saddles likely favourite Russe Blanc but the grey has been raised a stiff-looking twelve pounds following a facile victory in Warwick's Classic Chase six weeks ago.

12/1 at the time of writing, Woodford County is the each-way selection; most layers pay a quarter the odds four places.

In an effort to manage unrealistic expectation, allow me once again to draw your attention to my comment following Wyck Hill's 2014 victory: 'I manage to pull a stunt like this roughly once every ten years...'

Eider Chase 2014

Many will concentrate on Kempton tomorrow but rather than put up half a dozen short-priced losers on that card, I've chosen to exercise a modicum of self-discipline and restricted myself to putting up one bigger-priced loser at Newcastle.

Gosforth Park's feature is the four mile one furlong Eider Chase at 2.55; most layers will pay a quarter the odds four places provided the sixteen declared overnight make it to the start.

I'm interested in Wyck Hill, quoted at 16/1 with Bet Victor earlier this afternoon but now only a 12/1 chance. This one has been bang out of form this term but as a result he's dropped to a mark of 133. Last year he won a listed handicap chase at Ascot off 129 and trainer David Bridgwater is on record saying: 'I thought he was capable of winning off a good bit higher mark than this...'

The last five winners of this have all carried 11-0 or more; tomorrow connections try their charge in a tongue-tie for the first time.

I know I'm taking a chance on the return to form but at the price Wyck Hill appeals as an each-way play.

Three quick picks for Hennessy Saturday...

Presseed for time this evening so, very quickly...

Newcastle's Fighting Fifth (2.05) looks to have a little more strength in depth than in recent years. Odds-on shot My Tent Or Yours is top-rated but several of Henderson's have needed their first run. I'll oppose with Melodic Rendezvous who took the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago even though handler Jeremy Scott thought his charge would come on for the run. Should eight make it to post, 14/1 about John Quinn's four-year-old filly Cockney Sparrow looks reasonable each-way value.

This year's Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3.00) is wide open. Several fancied runners have been backed through the week, yet I suspect many of them would ideally prefer a little more cut underfoot. An each-way longshot that looks overpriced to me is Same Difference (33/1) who won at the Festival in March and went on to finish second to Quentin Collonges in Sandown's bet365 Gold Cup. On his seasonal debut at Ascot he raced prominently for a while before fading to come home some 35 lengths behind Houblon Des Obeaux (Merry King second, Triolo D'Alene third, Opening Batsman pulled up). The winner has been raised a hefty 10 pounds for that effort (stable jock Aidan Coleman prefers Katenko here) and, obviously, I'm hoping (against hope?) that run has blown away some of the cobwebs...

Opening Batsman (40/1) was amongst the market leaders for that Ascot race but was never a a factor. Still, he took the Racing Plus Chase on good grouind at Kempton in February and a return to that sort of form could see him being competitive. Same Difference is the each-way suggestion.

Finally I'm guessing Donald McCain Jnr will be trying his very hardest to win the race run in memory of his father, the Ginger McCain Memorial Novices' Chase (Bangor 12.30); Swatow Typhoon is his entry in the Class 3 event.  

Northumberland Plate 2013

Some old favourites line up for this year's renewal of the John Smith's Northumberland Plate including Tominator, successful in 2011, Blue Bajan and Ile De Re who carried 9-03 to victory last year, holding Crackentorp half a length.

That was a notable performance, particularly on heavy ground; Ile De Re became only the fourth horse in the past 20 years to carry more than 9-0 to victory (the others being Bold Gait 9-10 1995, Celeric 9-04 1996, Bangalore 9-05 2002) and just the second favourite to oblige in the past decade.

The draw is key - it's important to secure a decent pitch early on; lower numbered stalls are more highly prized although Overturn won from berth 21 in 2010 and Tominator from stall 14 the following year.

Richard Fahey's pair Address Unknown and Ingleby Spirit finished first and second from good draws in the Chester Cup last month but are drawn 15 and 18 respectively for tomorrow's event.

I usually select an animal with jumps form for this marathon.

Alan King's Ardlui catches the eye and has been well-touted. The gelding missed a Royal Ascot engagement for this (a bonus) while The Betchworth Kid ran seventh for the stable last year; having said that, he has his share of weight to carry.

John Quinn's yard is in reasonable form at the moment. Moidore was well beaten behind Ardlui on his penultimate start at Ripon but next time ran six lengths second to Well Sharp at York conceding two pounds; that one franked the form in no uncertain terms by going on to win the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Moidore looks likely to appreciate any rain that might arrive and is the each-way suggestion at around the 12/1 mark.

Each-way chances in the Racing Plus Chase and the Eider

Good ground for tomorrow's top class card at Kempton where the feature Racing Plus Chase (3.50) has thirteen entered. Wyck Hill, now in the ownership of J P McManus, has made the headlines this week and looks set to go off favourite, with a trip over Aintree's National fences beckoning if all goes well here. A decent display from Wyck Hill will do Venetia Williams' Katenko (entered in the Gold Cup and the National) no harm at all, although punters reading Wednesday's Hereford Times would be confused as to exactly which race Williams was reported to be 'excited about'...

Last year's winner Nacarat needs good ground to be seen at his best, a comment that also applies to top weight What A Friend, part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson. The former has been tipped up each-way in several places while the latter is quirky but has run well fresh in the past, although I was surprised to see this is his first attempt racing right-handed. It should be noted that a big weight has proved no barrier to success. Eight of the past ten winners have carried 11-0 or more to victory; three of those eight were burdened with 11-12.

I haven't spent a long time on this race. Nacarat (10/1 Stan James) is the each-way suggestion for the more cautious while I'm going to chance What A Friend each-way (25/1 Stan James) - Harry Dereham claims a useful-looking five pounds.

There are small fields on the remainder of the card - the outcomes will prove informative but beforehand they look decidedly trappy - so instead I've decided to take an each-way interest in Tim Vaughan's Our Island in the Eider Chase at Newcastle (2.55). This one ran well for a long way in the Welsh National at Chepstow; having said that, I said something similar about Triggerman this time last week but he was pulled up behind Well Refreshed in the Peter Marsh at Haydock. The Welsh National form didn't stand up to the closest scrutiny at Haydock (Viking Blond fifth, Teaforthree most disappointing in tenth, Master Overseer pulled up) but at least winner Monbeg Dude made a place in third.

Master Overseer has top weight tomorrow but appears to have two ways of running - he won a Veterans' Chase at Wincanton three weeks ago and pilot Tom Bellamy can claim seven. Only seven of the 14 race off their correct handicap mark with Our Island set to carry 10-4; he raced from two pounds out of the handicap at Chepstow and since then was withdrawn on the day from an intended engagement in the West Wales National at Ffos Las.

Cool Operator is respected and his defeat of Rigadin De Beauchene (has gone on to win the Classic Chase at Warwick and finish second in the Peter Marsh) reads well but that was over two and a half miles. Likely favourite Chac Du Cadran won easily from the front last time but has been raised 11 pounds for his trouble

On his penultimate start the selection finished third in the Axminster Carpets Devon Marathon Handicap Chase over four miles. Our Island is Tim Vaughan's sole runner at Newcastle tomorrow - I'm guessing the handler isn't sending his charge all the way to Newcastle from his south Wales base if he doesn't think the gelding is in with a squeak.

The Hennessy Gold Cup and The Fighting Fifth 2012

Like many, I tend to prefer a young up-and-coming chaser for the Hennessy; the race was switched from Cheltenham to Newbury in 1960 - the number of times the variously aged horses have won is shown below:

6 year old:    7
7 year old:  21
8 year old:  11
9 year old:  10
10 year old:  2
11 year old:  1

Horses aged seven to nine have won 42 of the 52 runnings, while seven-year-olds boast a 40.38% strike rate in that period.

This year's renewal looks as competitive as ever with Nicky Henderson's RSA winner Bobs Worth priced up favourite at around the 7/2 mark. Alan King, who had a notable winner with Bless The Wings earlier today, tells us in the Weekender Hold On Julio '...is unquestionably the best chance I have had of landing the famous race', while The Package comes here in fine heart having taken Wincanton's Badger Ales Trophy three weeks ago but regular pilot Timmy Murphy may miss the ride after falling from Leeroar in Newbury's finale this afternoon.

I tipped Carruthers to win the Hennessy last year;  this year the trainer has been pretty bullish about his charge (despite a couple of below par efforts) although the horse would not want the ground to dry out too much and become sticky. Carruthers is certainly a big price and will stay the trip but I'm going to desert him for the 2011 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner First Lieutenant. Irish trained runners have an abysmal record in the race but this one was beaten just two and a half lengths by Bobs Worth in the RSA last March; he's in receipt of one pound from that rival now and already has two runs under his belt, last time finishing a length behind Kauto Stone in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. At 10/1 he represents reasonable each-way value, although I'm not convinced the final two and a half furlongs are exactly what he needs.

Those looking for a lightweight at a price could do worse than consider the form of Alfie Spinner (18/1 Sky Bet) when finishing two and three quarter lengths behind Bobs Worth, both beaten by Invictus at Ascot in February; Invictus was to be my selection for the RSA in March but he picked up an injury and never made the race...

In a nutshell, two each-way chances against the field - First Lieutenant (10/1) and Alfie Spinner (18/1).

There's an eight o'clock inspection up at Newcastle tomorrow morning; if the meeting gets the go-ahead there will be just four runners in the Fighting Fifth. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes races off 151 and is priced up odds on this evening while Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame, rated 152, is on offer at 4/1 with several layers. No four-year-old has won this in the past decade but John Quinn's charge comes here fit from the Flat (he was second in Cesarewitch) and may handle the ground better than the favourite. The McCain operation has had a couple of winners of late but certainly hasn't been firing on all cylinders and the handler hints his charge will come on for the run. Obviously a tactical affair is the danger with such a small field - I just wonder whether Denis O'Regan may try to race from the front on Countrywide Flame. At 4/1 Countrywide Flame represents a value play against Cinders And Ashes.

Kempton, Adonis and other assorted offerings to the gods of racing...

Kempton's opener tomorrow is the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle. According to Greek mythology Aphrodite fell in love with Adonis, the god of beauty and desire, and entrusted the beautiful youth to Persephone, queen of the underworld. Persephone was also somewhat taken with Adonis and, when asked, refused to give him back to Aphrodite which resulted in something of a barney between the two goddesses. The compromise reached saw Adonis spend a third of the year with each goddess while he chose with which goddess to spend the final third - he chose Aphrodite but in the end, beautiful or not, he still managed to himself get slain by a wild boar. What has all this got to do with Kempton? Well, the Adonis is looking all Greek to me. Course and distance winner Sadler's Risk has been well-touted but is a jolly short price and the Hobbs yard isn't firing at present. The world and his wife knows about coughing in Paul Nicholls' yard but three winners from four runners at Sandown earlier today (Bold Chief 7/2, Toubab 8/11f and Sky Watch 7/2) would suggest Dildar offers value. Nicky Henderson's filly Une Artiste took the Victor Ludorum on heavy ground at Haydock last week while Baby Mix could easily bounce back from a disappointing effort behind Grumeti; Tom George has his team in fine form at the moment but the concession of weight to all rivals may prove the undoing of Baby Mix. Favourites have obliged on five occasions in the past ten years but I'll chance Dildar (7/2 with BetVictor) and I have to take a small each-way interest in Orthodox Lad at 40/1 (William Hill)  who may have improvement to come on better ground.

Adonis, Aphrodite, beauty and love are all very well but there's no love lost between the Racing Post and rival publication Racing Plus. In the feature Racing Plus Chase, a race previously associated with the Racing Post but this year sponsored by Racing Plus, I'll stick with Nacarat, mainly for old times sake. In my opinion this horse shows his very best form on good ground - he won the 2009 renewal - but at 11 it's probable one or two will prove a bit too quick at the business end.

All eyes will be on Grumeti in the Dovecote (3.40) - Choc Thornton takes his first ride in public on Alan King's charge who is quoted as low as 7/1 for the Triumph Hurdle. On paper this doesn't look a complete walk in the park with Keys (blinkers fitted for the first time over hurdles), Terre Du Vent (placed behind Kasbah Bliss in France) and well-touted newcomer Dodging Bullets in the field.

On ratings Cristal Bonus is the one to beat in the Pendil (4.10) but he makes little appeal as a bettng proposition.

The tissue for the concluding bumper has the only previous winner in the field third in the market. I saw Starvin Marvin win at Warwick seven weeks ago and he did it well enough at odds of 14/1, overturning well-backed favourite Le Bec from the Emma Lavelle yard by two lengths. Earlier today Le Bec was sent off joint-favourite in the Sandown bumper but again failed to oblige, beaten four and a quarter lengths into third. Colin Tizzard's Virginia Ash will be the likely favourite tomorrow on the back of his third in a listed Cheltenham event where he was seen staying on to good effect but to these eyes Starvin Marvin put his race to bed quickly enough at Warwick and this flat track could suit - I'll consider a wager if the tissue price of 9/2 becomes available on the day.

Finally one tentative Eider suggestion offered to the gods of the Tyne - Peter Niven's mare Posh Bird is weighted to turn around recent form with Mister Marker (two pounds for half a length over three miles one at Ayr) and she may appreciate drying ground more than a number of her rivals.

The Hennessy and the Fighting Fifth

After Kauto's heroics in last week's Betfair Chase, this week's Hennessy just hasn't captured the imagination. Old-timers such as myself often witter on about the Hennessy going to a young up-and-coming sort but as Tom Segal points out in the Weekender, last season's top novices looked distinctly average in the Betfair. I bet Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA last March but he's not the most proficient of jumpers; Wymott's stable jock Jason Maguire prefers Peddlers Cross at Bangor and a quick trip to Newcastle to partner Overturn; Great Endeavour looked good in the Paddy Power but hasn't won over further than two miles six while The Giant Bolster has failed to complete on four of his six chase starts. So, of the younger brigade, Wayward Prince, third in the RSA and fourth behind the well-regarded Quito De La Roque at Aintree three weeks later (Sarando beaten just a neck into second) makes some appeal; trainer Ian Williams sounds hopeful enough and in the past fortnight has sent out seven winners from 36 runners. Of the more established entrants, top weight Neptune Collonges has Harry Dereham take seven pounds off but didn't really hit the heights last season following a long break after injury - since 1957 only three horses older than nine have won: Mandarin (1961), Rondetto (1967) and Diamond Edge (1981). Blazing Bailey is an outside chance while there's a hint Beshabar has the National as his target. Running one pound out of the handicap, Carruthers finished sixth in this last year off a mark of 155 - he returns this time off 146 and ran well on his seasonal debut behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Connections try a tongue-tie for the first-time - 20/1 with totesport looks reasonable each-way value. This evening two layers offer a quarter the odds five places on this race - bet365 and Paddy Power.

The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.

Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.

All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.

King George day at Ascot

Only five go in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot tomorrow but it looks particularly intriguing. On ratings, there's little to choose between Workforce and Rewilding while Coolmore has surprised many by putting up trainer's son Joseph O'Brien on St Nicholas Abbey. Nathaniel has course and distance winning form and has been supplemented at a cost of £75,000; Debussy is set to act as pacemaker for Rewilding. Over the week the market has changed significantly with Workforce now a clear favourite following a favourable gallop at Newmarket on Sunday. Rewilding, with Ascot specialist Dettori in the plate, has to be the value; William Hill offered 7/2 until early afternoon but now go 3/1; 100/30 is generally available. Connections think they have found the answer to the colt's apparent inconsistency last season - he needs a break between races. Workforce flopped badly in this last year, leading some to question whether he disliked the track; trainer Sir Michael Stoute is on record saying his charge is in much better shape this year. A fascinating renewal - Rewilding gets the nod.

Continuing with a theme (Keys went in again (4/5f) earlier this afternoon), horses with NH form running over more than 12 furlongs tomorrow include:

4.05 Newcastle - Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau, Summerlea, Falcun, Hi Dancer, Strikemaster and Follow The Sun. Tillietudum has won novice hurdles at Perth, Bangor and Ayr by racing from the front. Jeu De Roseau has Towcester and Sedgefield handicap hurdles to his name and was beaten less than five lengths by Tillietudlem at Catterick last time; they look closely matched on the revised terms. Summerlea has his second run for new connections, having finished mid-division in a Punchestown maiden hurdle in October 2009. Falcun didn't look suited to the jumping game with two undistinguished runs in maiden hurdles; his latest run hints he may benefit from this trip after staying on well over 14 furlongs at Redcar the last time. Hi Dancer won a Sedgefield handicap hurdle off 108 in March at odds of 25/1. Strikemaster boasts little NH form of note but Follow The Sun has won a Southwell two mile handicap chase. Tillietudlem, Jeu De Roseau and Falcun are of interest - Falcun is a tentative suggestion.

4.45 York - Bow To No One, Simonside and Profit's Reality. Bow To No One has run of the mill novice hurdle form over two miles that dates back to March/April this year. The mare finished second to 66/1 winner French Hollow at this course two weeks ago and on the back of that effort looks likely to go off the market leader; Spiekeroog made up plenty of ground to finish fourth that day and may well have improved for the run. Simonside was a Market Rasen bumper winner in 2007, won over course and distance last September and won his penultimate start at Ayr. Profit's Reality has raced 64 times with just the one start over hurdles at Bangor in August 2008. Bow To No One is of most interest; Simonside may find one or two too good in this Class 3 event.

6.15 Lingfield - eight of the ten runnners have NH form; Dream Catcher has won over hurdles but has been generally disappointing. No suggestion.

8.10 Salibury - Tropical Batchelor is the only one with jumps form but is of interest on the back of his close fourth at Haydock last week. The winner of the Haydock race, Spirit Of A Nation, goes in York's 4.45 (see above) and may provide a pointer to Tropical Batchelor's chance. Reg Hollinshead's Drawn Gold finished fifth at Haydock but reopposes on two pounds worse terms as the jockey isn't a claimer. Tropical Batchelor looks to represent a reasonable each-way shout (10/1 or bigger) on his third start of the season after a long layoff.

Northumberland Plate 2011

Prior to last year's running of the Northumberland Plate I wrote:

"Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not..."

Twelve months on, perhaps there is something of a trend.... Last year's Plate winner Overturn took this year's Chester Cup while Veiled won the Ascot Stakes and Swingkeel the Queen Alexandra Stakes, all horses with jumps form in the book. Digging a little deeper, I discovered that between the years 1994 and 2001, no winner of the Pitmen's Derby had previously run over the sticks; from 2002 onwards, five of the subsequent nine winners had National Hunt form (Bangalore 2002, Unleash 2003, Mirjan 2004, Arc Bleu 2008 and Overturn 2010).

Regular readers will know that this Flat term I'm trying to focus on horses with jumps form racing over more than one and a half miles; two Royal Ascot winners last week were supplemented by My Arch (8/1) taking the Pontefract Cup on Sunday while Kavaloti (11/10f) collected a class 6 handicap on the all-weather at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

The horses with jumps form declared for Newcastle's Northumberland Plate tomorrow are Overturn, Investissement, La Vecchia Scuola and first reserve Crackentorp who may yet line up as Her Majesty's horse, Tactitian, is rated doubtful this evening. Although this is a two mile race, a low draw is seen as important - in the past decade four winners have raced out of a stall numbered higher than nine, with Eddie Ahern performing miracles last year on Overturn who broke from stall 21. Donald McCain's charge missed last weeks' Queen Alexandra Stakes on account of the ground, has a plum draw in stall two but is rated thirteen pounds higher this year - Henry Brooke can claim five. It's worth noting that only one horse has carried more than 8-11 to victory in the last decade - Bangalore won with 9-5 in 2002. John Gosden's Investissement is another with a good draw (berth three) and looks interesting, having had this as his target for a while; previously with Evan Williams, the Singspiel gelding didn't take to hurdling, finishing tailed off in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jim Goldie trains bay mare La Vecchia Scuola who is another with a good draw (stall 4) but has been out of sorts since her second in last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket; on her last run over hurdles she finished over 30 lengths behind Quevega in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. My Arch took the Pontefract Cup on Sunday but is drawn widest of all in stall 22 while Tim Easterby's Crackentorp finished third behind the useful Storm Brig in a Newcastle novice hurdle last November.

Of the other runners, Activate's Haydock win last month catches the eye, with Swingkeel (sixth) and My Arch (seventh) both having won since - Deauville Flyer, another from Tim Easterby's yard, was fourth that day, suffering interference in running around two furlongs out, and probably represents that trainer's best chance.

Almost all layers offer a quarter the odds four places - in a very competitive affair I'll take an each-way interest in Investissement at around 9/1.

I haven't done any work on Sunday's cards but I'll look closely at my Epsom Derby selection Native Khan who goes in the Irish Derby. Writing in the Weekender Kieren Fallon rates him overpriced at 8/1 and 'the logical each-way pick', while Nick Mordin selects the same horse as he sees favourite Carlton House 'vulnerable off a quick return because he's still immature'.

On the same day but changing codes, 18 have been declared for the English Summer National run over three and half miles at Uttoxeter. I prefer a young horse for this one and will do some homework on Eoin Griffin's The Last Derby who was third in the Cork National last October and sixth in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in April.

Derby Day 2011

The jockeys have been making the news today... There were two stand-out rides at Epsom earlier, from Ryan Moore aboard Saint Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup and from Johnny Murtagh who pinched the Oaks from the front on Dancing Rain. Frankie Dettori found himself in trouble with the stewards after the Oaks, having been found guilty of dropping his hands and losing third place; he has been hit with a ten day ban. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Kieren Fallon will be able to ride in tomorrow's Derby after the owner of Native Khan took out a High Court injunction to prevent the jockey from riding Aidan O'Brien's Recital; the judge initially ruled he would not prevent Fallon from riding but the decision has been taken to appeal - the result is due at 0900 Saturday morning.

My Derby record makes grim reading with just two wins (Authorized 2007 and Workforce 2010) in forty years of trying. Generally the market has proved a good guide to the race with Sinndar (7/1) being the biggest priced winner in recent years. Using that benchmark, the victor will come from a list that comprises Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville. I can't have the Queen's colt, Carlton House. His victory in the Dante was over three seconds slower than Midday's time in the Middleton Stakes half an hour earlier; he isn't guaranteed to stay; he doesn't represent value while his problems in the build-up have been well-documented. Fallon originally committed to ride Native Khan but has jumped ship; the jock has written a bullish piece in the Weekender about Recital's chance but at this point we don't know if he'll be on board. Seville finished second behind Carlton House in the muddling Dante and on breeding looks the more likely to stay the trip. Pour Moi has been well backed in recent weeks but French traned horses don't have a great record in the race.

Native Khan catches my eye, although obviously Fallon's view is respected. Ed Dunlop's grey isn't guaranteed to stay but he appeared to finish the 2000 Guineas strongly. Timeform rates the principals as follows: Carlton House 136p; Native Khan 134p; Seville 133p; Recital 133; Pour Moi 129p. At 12/1 with Coral I'll chance Native Khan staying the distance and have an each-way wager. For the dreamers amongst you, one that will stay and looks overpriced at 100/1 is Pisco Sour, although the luck of the draw (stall one) hasn't been kind to Hughie Morrison and his colt.

Should Carlton House win for Her Majesty, she will become the first royal to win the Derby since King Edward VII took the race with Minoru in 1909. Should Carlton House disappoint but Sohraab win the preceding Epsom Dash, I'd imagine Her Majesty would not be particularly amused; Kate Middleton's parents own a share of Sohraab...

Up at Newcastle's evening meeting, several runners in the two mile handicap (7.30) have form over the sticks. Orsippus is one that stands out, despite top weight, having finished third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March. Off a mark of 137 he disappointed in the Swinton Hurdle but he starts this Grade 6 handicap off 62. He would be of interest if priced around 5/1 (as he is in tonight's tissue). In the past Westlin' Winds has tended to show better form with cut underfoot; this is his third run for Brian Ellison, having moved north from Charles Egerton's yard a couple of months back. Brian Ellison's 21% strike rate in the past fortnight means an improvement on those first two runs wouldn't be a complete surprise.