Man v horse update

Regular readers will recall a previous post which looked at the Man v. Horse challenge which is set to take place at Kempton Park racecourse on Wednesday evening June 30th; Jamie Baulch takes on Brendan Powell's eight-year-old entire Peopleton Brook. This one has caught my imagination - most people I've talked to seem to think the horse will win easily but on the times shown below, at his peak, Baulch would have won this challenge.

I have done some more research and am particularly grateful to library staff at Warwickshire College, Moreton Morrell who have helped with this work.

My understanding is the race has been framed as follows:

Jamie Baulch will race over the final 100 metres of Kempton's all-weather track and will use starting blocks;
Peopleton Brook has a 20 metre handicap (so races over 120 metres) and will break from a starting stall;
Peopleton Brook will have the advantage of the inside running rail.

At racing speed an average thoroughbred covers 100 metres in roughly six seconds. Winning times for recent five furlong (1000m) races at Kempton are a fraction over 60 seconds. The question is - how long does it take a thoroughbred to reach racing speed from a standing start?

A quick summary of findings...

In studies intact male thoroughbreds were 0.7% faster than females and neutered males (Etin , Pauline Do racehorses and greyhound dogs exhibit a gender difference in running speed?, Equine and Comparative Exercise Physiology, Vol 4 Issue 3-4, November 2007, pp 135-140).

The mean speed for thoroughbreds racing through the beginning section of 402 metre races has been recorded as 36.1 km/h (+/- 1.5). At this speed the horse will cover 100 metres in 9.97 seconds, 120 metres in 11.96 seconds (Nielsen, B.D. and Turner, K.K. Racing speeds of quarter horses, thoroughbreds and Arabians, Equine Veterinary Journal Supplement 2006, August (36), pp 128-132.

Jamie Baulch's personal best over 100 metres is 10.51 seconds, achieved in 1995. Baulch, now 37, retired from athletics five years ago and manages Welsh rugby star Shane Williams. He has been training for some months but, of course, we don't know what times he has been clocking. I sent a tweet to the athlete asking that very question but he hasn't replied...

In a nutshell:

Peopleton Brook
Fit - run three times this month already, finishing fourth at Newbury last Tuesday;
Professional jockey on board but not regular rider;
Likely to carry around eight stones five?
Has advantage of inside running rail;
In studies intact males run 0.7% faster than neutered males / females;
Often receives comment 'held up' in his races -will he break quickly enough?
Not used to racing in this manner;
The start will be critical - lack of other horses could lead to slower start.

Jamie Baulch
Would have won this challenge at his best;
Now 37, retired from athletics five years ago and past his prime;
Has been in training but fitness levels unknown;
Better initial rate of acceleration, aided by starting blocks;
More likely to be affected by track conditions.

Much will depend on Baulch's fitness but it could be a lot closer than many think.

Another one horse race?

In what Kempton Park racecourse describes as 'an exciting UK first', the last race at their meeting on Wednesday 30th June will see Olympic silver medalist Jamie Baulch run against a horse over the final 100 metres of the all-weather track. In this unique Man v. Horse handicap, the horse has to start 20 metres behind the human, the winner claiming £10,000 prize money for their charity. With Fergus Sweeney in the plate, the horse is expected to complete the course in less than twelve seconds and consequently the bookmakers have installed the equine contestant as their favourite.

The names of two Brendan Powell trained sprinters have been put forward to take on Baulch - Peopleton Brook, an eight year old entire who has won 9 of his 88 starts to date and Who's Winning, a nine year old chestnut gelding who has won 11 of his 114 starts. A quick look through the form shows that Peopleton Brook tends to be held up at the start of his races while Who's Winning receives the comment 'quickly away' on a couple of occasions.

Aged 37 Baulch would be the first to acknowledge he's probably past his prime but he has been training hard in recent months. On New Year's Day 1995 he ran a personal best of 10.51 seconds over 100 metres. Anything near that puts him in with a fighting chance; should the horse miss the break, surely the deficit will be too big to make up? Of course, the weather will have an important part to play as will the fact the horse is set to race with the benefit of the inside rail.

I'll keep an eye on this story - I don't think Jamie's is a hopeless cause by any stretch of the imagination.