Nicholls top Festival trainer?

The top trainer market for the 2013 Cheltenham Festival is dominated by Nicky Henderson (4/6f) and Willie Mullins (2/1) yet last year's champion NH trainer, Paul Nicholls, can be backed at 10/1 in places (Betfred, William Hill).

Most of us understand why Henderson and Mullins are at the head of affairs but 10/1 is a big enough price about Nicholls who has traditionally fared well at this meeting so I thought I'd do some basic spadework on the trainer's horses for next week.

Here's a selection of his entries (with indicative prices only) which were correct (I think) at the time of publishing this post...

Tuesday

1.30 Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Dodging Bullets (9/1)
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase: Rolling Aces (12/1)
3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander (9/2)
5.15 Pulteney Novices' Handicap Chase: Rebel Rebellion (20/1 [runs 4.25 Sandown, Sat.])

Wednesday

1.30 John Oaksey National Hunt Chase: Hawkes Point (16/1)
2.30 RSA Chase: Unioniste (4/1)
3.20 Champion Chase: Sanctuaire (16/1)
4.00 Coral Cup: Wonderful Charm (was 7/1 but drifting), Salubrious (20/1), Brampour (33/1)
4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle: Saphir Du Rheu (7/1), Pitt Zig (9/1)
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper: Fascino Rustico (16/1)

Thursday

1.30 Jewson Novices' Chase: Unioniste (14/1)
2.05 Pertemps Final: Sam Winner (4/1), American Trilogy (20/1)
2.40 Ryanair Chase: Ghizao (33/1)
3.20 World Hurdle: Wonderful Charm (12/1), Celestial Halo (33/1), Prospect Wells (40/1)
4.00 Byrne Group Chase: Poquelin (20/1), Domtaline (20/1)
4.40 Kim Muir: Harry The Viking (16/1)

Friday

1.30 Triumph Hurdle: Far West (4/1)
2.05 County Hurdle: Mr Mole (6/1 [runs Imperial Cup, Sat.]), Hinterland (20/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)
2.40 Albert Bartlett: Aaim To Prosper (20/1), Aerial (33/1), Easter Day (33/1), Pay The King (40/1)
3.20 Gold Cup: Silviniaco Conti (4/1)
4.40 Martin Pipe: Salubrious (14/1)
5.15 Grand Annual: Ulck Du Lin (8/1), Toubab (16/1), Shooters Wood (16/1), Edgardo Sol (25/1)

Henderson deserves his position at the head of the market but there are some reasonable chances listed above which makes the 10/1 on offer look big to this observer.

Late tweet from the trainer himself - he rates Sam Winner his best chance of the week and is 'very hopeful' about Zarkander and Silviniaco Conti.

In the frame...

Earlier this week Daryl Jacob was appointed Paul Nicholls' second jockey. Having read Lucky Break and Ruby: The Autobiography, I wondered whether Nicholls would have perhaps considered an alternative arrangement this time given that first choice Walsh missed much of last year's core NH season with a broken leg. Of course, Walsh is peerless and returned to action in March to ride five Festival winners. Nonetheless hints of tension in the partnership were inevitably present - Nicholls was known to be disappointed by Walsh's decision to ride Willie Mullins' Mikael D'Haguenet ahead of Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. In the Weekender Alistair Whitehouse-Jones reports that trainer Nick Williams has acted quickly and appointed James Reveley as a replacement for Jacob but hints that Reveley's reluctance to relocate south could lead to problems in the future.

It may be very early days in the new NH season but I've seen snippets from Simon Holt and Alan Lee suggesting two jockeys who could give current champion A P McCoy a run for his money this year are Jason Maguire and the aforementioned Daryl Jacob.

Mickael Barzalona rode a double at Newmarket yesterday and later Barcelona won the Champions League Final at Wembley, but did anyone else think Paddy Power were sailing close to the wind with the advertisement that interspersed Channel 4's racing coverage? A young lady showed viewers a mobile device displaying the message 'Barcelona win normal time, refund losing bets'; the lady in question then encouraged punters to go to a specific web address. In actual fact the refunds applied to Paddy Power's correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer markets only; although full details were displayed in 'small print' on screen, I thought the deliberate impression created was the refund applied to all bets struck.

Finally, a couple of horses you may wish to follow if, unlike Ryan Giggs, you're a fan of Twitter...

Twitter horse Trending @Trending_Horse trained by @jeremygask website: http://socialmediaracing.com/

The People's Horse @peopleshorse website: http://www.thepeopleshorse.co.uk/

Student Horse Tae Kwon Do @StudentHorse His progress has been mentioned on the blog previously; he obliged at odds of 9/2 at Fontwell earlier today.

Thoughts on Halloween

Quick notes from Wetherby yesterday... Deep Purple ran a fine race in the Charlie Hall - Evan Williams' charge was fairly eating up the ground at the finish, much as he did in the race last year. The Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on December 9th is the next stop. Interviewed on Channel 4 by Derek 'Tommo' Thompson, owner Graham Wylie put up three to keep an eye out for - Tidal Bay (finished third behind Fair Along in the John Smith's Hurdle), Presenting Forever and On His Own; the last named has a five day entry in the 3.10 at Hexham on Friday. Coastley was going well enough for a 28/1 shot in Fair Along's race but put in a howler at the ninth flight that practically stopped him in his tracks. He was pulled up shortly afterwards but could be of interest in the future, a comment that also applies to Gary Moore's Bogside Theatre who ran well for a long way at the head of affairs before taking a crashing fall three from home - the obvious concern is the mare's confidence will have been affected. Calgary Bay, a big-looking beast, appeared to be travelling sweetly and set for a place at least as the principals came to the top of the final bend but the gelding found disappointingly little when asked a question. Perhaps Martin Todhunter's outsider That's Rhythm (finished fifth) will be worth a second look when dropped a little in class. Gilbarry went into many notebooks when taking the opening novice chase by beating 6/5 favourite Osric, the pair 30 lengths clear of Knockavilla in third.

This season Paul Nicholls has moved stables and now writes a column for Betfair. The Racing Post, not to be outdone, hit back by announcing on Saturday they had signed up Nicky Henderson. In his first piece for the trade paper the Lambourn trainer kept punters in the picture by indicating many of his string were two weeks away from where he wanted them to be.

Weird Al returned to the track at Carlisle earlier today; Ian Williams' charge got up on the line to dead -heat with Little Josh over a trip that is probably short of his best. I was surprised to see Cape Tribulation sent off favourite for this intermediate chase; the bay didn't jump all that well at Hexham the last time veering left on occasions - that trait was evident again. He lost his position from the eleventh and was soon pulled up.

With Cheltenham's Open meeting less than a fortnight away, a quick reminder that Cheltenham Racecourse station is currently closed due to a landslip south of Gotherington Halt. Repair work has started - the latest estimate I have is that services are unlikely to be restored before mid summer; further details on the Gloucestershire Warwickshire Railway website.

Finally, as highlighted on The Morning Line, Donald McCain's Drill Sergeant (formerly with Mark Johnson on the Flat) is blessed with ability but comes with quirks. Holding a fifteen length advantage in a Haydock novice hurdle, the Rock Of Gibraltar gelding pulled himself up at the the exit to the stables, going from first to last in a matter of strides. McCoy worked the magic though and the 11/10 favourite still ran out the winner, beating Brother Bob a length. In a recent stable tour article Donald McCain had said, 'It is possible we will ride him more positively in the future over 2m...' My guess is connections will be reviewing that approach. Incidentally, the form appears to pay a compliment to Kilcrea Kim who beat Drill Sergeant over two and half miles at Bangor. That one has a five day entry in the 1.35 at Exeter on Tuesday.

Anticipation, fun and misuse of the whip

As the National Hunt season moves into gear, I'm reminded of the old saying: horse racing - half the fun is in the anticipation. Here's a selection of early seaon targets for some well known horses, as noted in Saturday's Times:

Twist Magic (P. Nicholls) Haldon Gold Cup, Exeter

Tataniano (P. Nicholls) Cheltenham Open meeting

Kauto Star (P. Nicholls) Down Royal, November 6th; King George

Denman (P. Nicholls) Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury

Imperial Commander (N. Twiston-Davies) Betfair Chase, Haydock

What A Friend (P.Nicholls) Betfair Chase, Haydock

Master Minded (P.Nicholls) Ascot, late November

Additional running plans noted include:

Big Fella Thanks (F.Murphy) Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury

Wolf Moon (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 15th

Total Submission (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 15th

Benbane Head (M.Keighley) Cheltenham Showcase meeting, October 16th

There's a whisper in some quarters that Nicky Henderson can take the trainers' title this season. John O'Hara's comment is worth noting: 'In all my time of talking to trainers for the Weekender I have never seen a jumps yard more full of quality than the one Nicholls is preparing for the 2010-11 season'. William Hill bet 4/9 Nicholls, 2/1 Henderson, 20/1 bar.

In a driving finish at Chepstow yesterday Ruby Walsh managed to get the Paul Nicholls trained Escort'men home a nose in front of 2/1 favourite Olofi ridden by Paddy Brennan. After Walsh had dismounted, he had recourse to resort to the whip once again before weighing in as a gentleman dressed in a red T-shirt entered the winner's enclosure and attempted to mount the chestnut gelding. The offender was promptly chased off by Walsh, the threat of a slap from the persuader enough to bring the him into line. The culprit was quickly escorted from the premises. Good Lord! Just what is the world coming to? Rumours that Walsh was subsequently given a one day ban by local stewards for misuse of the whip are wide of the mark.

Weekend notes

Big Zeb bounced back to form to take the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown earlier today; the trainer feels he has now sorted a problem the horse had with ringbone on his off-fore. This evening Ladbrokes bet 7/1 Colm Murphy's charge for the Champion Chase.

The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.

Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.

Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.

Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.

One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...

Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!

Racing returns

Jim Best's 5/1 shot Anak won the first jump race run for thirteen days when taking the opener at Kempton yesterday. Two and a half hours later Andy Turnell's Micheal Flips took a competitive-looking renewal of the Lanzarote with the minimum of fuss, having eight lengths to spare over 9/2 favourite Duc De Regniere at the line. This evening the winner is quoted a 20/1 shot with William Hill for the Totesport Trophy at Newbury on February 13th.

At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.

Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.

We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?

Noted this weekend

The two star performances over the weekend were St Nicholas Abbey winning the Racing Post Trophy and over in Ireland Dunguib taking the maiden hurdle at Galway. This evening St Nicholas Abbey is generally 3/1 and 7/2 for next year's 2000 Guineas and 3/1 for the Derby, but Stan James go as short as 2/1. Dunguib is generally a 5/2 shot for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham next March.

Paul Nicholls may have come away from Chepstow without a winner yesterday but it was no surprise to see his Pepe Simo (5/2) take the Paul Nicholls Racing 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle at Wincanton today, beating the 13/8 favourite Henry King a length and a quarter.

During the BBC's coverage from Aintree on Saturday Clare Balding mentioned the John Smith's marketing campaign which is set to offer drinkers a share in the people's racehorse, a three-year-old called Smithy. Viewers were encouraged to check the John Smith's website for details. I've just had a quick peek - there are 'bogof' offers to several interesting meets but finding details of Smithy wasn't easy. An article from Marketing informed us we can register our interest from January 2010, and it was that article that pointed me in the direction of the link to Smithy's Yard, Home of the People's Racehorse.

With Christmas creeping ever closer, two more books of interest - Marcus Armytage offers some frivolous racing tales in 'Turn Me On Guv: 'Tails' from the Racecourse', while those looking for something a little more serious may want to consider fellow blogger Ben Aitken's 'Narrowing The Field - Using the Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing', available from the High Stakes bookshop.

Several acquaintances have been quick to tell me about Wrexham's indifferent start in the Blue Square Premiership this season. Mrs Tips, ever the helpful one, suggested the club sent a scout to run his eye over some dolphins who were filmed off the north Wales coast, playing football with jellyfish... Staying with the football theme, I had to smile at the commentator's introduction to the Chelsea versus Blackburn Rovers match on Match Of The Day last night. "If football was played on paper," he boomed, "we would win the pools every week!" Doesn't sound a bad idea to me.

Finally, spare a thought for amateur rider Victoria Cartmel who made history yesterday by becoming the first jockey to be banned for misuse of the whip and dropping her hands in the same race, the finale at Newbury yesterday. Sometimes, you just can't do right for doing wrong...

Taking stock

The jumps season starts to take centre stage in the next couple of weeks but a couple of events this week haven't necessarily shown the game in the best light. There were four fatalities at Wetherby on Wednesday; the course will have to pass an inspection before the meeting scheduled for Friday and Saturday October 30th / 31st will be allowed to go ahead - the Charlie Hall Chase is the feature of the Saturday. Meanwhile, yesterday at Cheltenham of all places, the four runners in the five o'clock race were forced to take the wrong course after staff failed to remove a temporary running rail. A stewards' inquiry ensued and all jockeys were exonerated - how often do we see that happen? The incident has been referred to the BHA - rumours that the groundstaff concerned have been served with a one-day ban for misuse of the rails are wide of the mark.

Two impressive winners this weekend... The proverbial handicap snip Darley Sun ran out an easy winner of the Cesarewitch and the Kempton Christmas Hurdle is now on the agenda for Starluck after the gelding won on his seasonal debut whilst remaining in second gear.

Earlier this week in The Times Paul Nicholls put up three dark horses from the yard to watch out for - Aiteen Thirtythree, Royal Charm and Valentine Vic. Don't say I didn't tell you.

Finally, as Sea The Stars prepares to take up a new career at stud, Julian Muscat composed a fascinating double-page spread for Thursday's The Times that gave a glimpse into the esoteric world of the horse breeder. Hills offer 12/1 that any of Sea The Stars' first crop of three-year-olds will win a classic.

The proper start to the jumps season

Many consider tomorrow's meeting at Chepstow the real start to the jumps season; in days gone by the feature race was the Mercedes Benz Chase, with the BBC televising at least three races from the card. How times have changed! The Paul Nicholls stable moves into gear now, and Ruby Walsh will start his regular winter flights across the Irish Sea. In the past, searching for value, I've experimented with an approach of opposing Nicholls' runners at this meeting, the theory being that after their summer break the horses may not be as far forward as many will assume. The results have been decidedly mixed - last year was best forgotten with Nicholls-trained beasts winning four (Tchico Polos 5/2, Herecomesthetruth 10/11f, R De Rien Sivola 8/1 and Taniano even money favourite). As today's Daily Telegraph reports Nicholls feels his charges are as far forward as they were this time last year, I'd advise caution in following the strategy this year.

One I would be prepared to take on is Classic Swain in the four-year-old hurdle at 4.10. Classic Swain has never struck me as straightforward and in the past has shown signs of temperament together with a tendency to miss the odd hurdle out here and there. Any Given Day is a horse I like while Trenchant, with Choc Thornton up, looks the pick of the Alan King runners. Josh Gifford's Helium, a staying-on eighth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, is held in high regard but, as with many on their first run of the season, fitness has to be taken on trust; having said that, the tissue prices the horse at 20/1 which looks big. In an open event, Any Given Day is put forward as the tentative selection - his run at Market Rasen in mid-August may give him an edge over some of his rivals here.

Tot Of The Knar has had her fair share of trainers and moved to the Nicholls yard in August. A game mare on her day, she gets into the 3.35 with a light weight but she has been novice chasing in smallish fields - taking on seasoned handicappers here she makes little appeal at cramped odds.

The favourite has won eight of the last ten runnings of the juvenile hurdle which is due off at 4.45. At the time of writing Fongoli is the most experienced animal and the market leader. The King stable won this in 2006 with Katchit and then finished second twice in succession with Pouvoir (2007) and Tuanku (2008). Tombov needs to improve on what we've seen so far to get competitive but the yard wouldn't enter him here on a mere whim. Fongoli is the selection.

Only six go to post for the novice chase at 3.00 which tends to act as a stepping stone for a young chaser destined for better things. As two thirds of the field are seven years old and more, I have concentrated on Nicholls' Gullible Gordon and Jonjo O'Neill's Theatrical Moment - Gullible Gordon gets the vote.

Noted - McCoy chooses to ride at Bangor. Khachaturian is of interest in the opener after his recent second to King Troy over a trip perhaps a little beyond his best. The drop back here should suit, although King Troy, previously fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, didn't jump well that day. King's Forest is respected. The McManus horses City Theatre and Shadow Dancer will be short odds to take the two novice hurdle events but I'll be tempted to have an each-way dabble on Norma Hill if she's priced around the 12/1 mark in the 3.30. This course and distance winning mare returned to action after a two year layoff with a reasonable effort in August. I've won money on her before - on her day she was a very speedy individual; if she retains her ability, she can be competitive here.

Weighed in

The Glorious Goodwood meeting starts on Tuesday, with the Betfair Cup and the Gordon Stakes highlights on the opening day. Other races to look forward to include the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, the two mile Goodwood Cup on Thursday, the Richmond Stakes on Friday while Saturday's features are the Nassau Stakes and the Stewards' Cup. A word to the wise - this isn't a meeting I've done particularly well at over the years.

Earlier in the week there was something of a shock when the Daily Mail reported that Michael Owen, currently on tour with Manchester United in the Far East, had sacked his trainer Nicky Vaughan. Now you can't help but feel some sympathy for Vaughan - the horses have the virus and you wake up one morning to be told by Owen's mother, Jeanette, that you've just joined the growing ranks of the unemployed. Reading between the lines, I don't think Mr Vaughan was particularly impressed with his treatment either... 'I haven't spoken to Michael, everything has been done by his mother. Working with high-profile people, these things are always likely to happen.' Mr Owen didn't appear to waste any time in arranging a replacement - the very next day both the Daily Mail and the Guardian reported that Tom Dascombe was set to take over the reins at the Cheshire stables, with financial backing coming from Betfair co-founder Andrew 'Bert' Black.

On the same day the Guardian also ran a story confirming that the BHA is investigating the running of Paul Nicholls' Predateur in a novice chase at Huntingdon on May 6th. Ridden by Christian Williams on this occasion, the horse, sent off second favourite in a field of four, went from 'every chance on bit 2 out' to 'ridden and found little' rather quickly. A trawl through his recent form would suggest this wasn't necessarily the first time this has happened.

Those of you who use the Racing Post website will know all about the recent introduction of charges for their Members' Club. I haven't subscribed and the other day, very helpfully, the Racing Post sent me an email pointing out the error of my ways. The mail lists the areas of the site I won't be able to access (thank you for that) unless I subscribe at a cost of £7.50 per month or 25p a day - 'that costs less than a third of a loaf of bread a day'. Now, I know what you're wondering - what's the price of a loaf of bread? Well, the loaf of bread the Racing Post has used for its comparison is the Hovis Wholemeal Thick (800g) from Sainsbury's which was on sale at £1.24 in June (but is actually reduced at the moment to £1). The mail finishes 'Use your loaf and make more dough. Keep in the know.' Lines like that - they're enough to make a grown man cry.

Finally, Mrs Tips spotted a potential bet in a snippet from Saturday's Times. Roger Federer and his wife Mirka have recently celebrated the birth of their twin daughters, Charlene Riva and Myla Rose. 'Bookmakers are offering 100-1 on either twin winning Wimbledon.' That has to be worth a tenner of anyone's money, doesn't it?

Points of (some) interest

Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King won the John Smith's Race Extra Smooth Novices' Chase at Musselburgh today and is now quoted as low as 10/1 for the Arkle. At the same meeting Nicky Henderson won the Triumph Hurdle trial with Giorgio Quercus but hinted the horse may miss Cheltenham in favour of either Aintree or Punchestown.

Paddy Power has taken a particularly dim view of Big Zeb's fall at Punchestown this afternoon and now price the horse at 14/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

At Sandown on Saturday Celestial Halo beat Osana but of the two I, in common with many I suspect, prefer the latter. Osana is currently quoted 10/1 second favourite for the Champion Hurdle with Celestial Halo 12s.

In the last fortnight Christian Williams has ridden two Saturday big-race winners for the Nicholls yard, both at Doncaster - Big Fella Thanks and I'msingingtheblues. It looks as though Sam Thomas is paying the price for a couple of high-profile falls earlier in the season. Any talk of Doncaster and you immediately think of the St. Leger but you wouldn't be advised to stay in the Grand St Leger Hotel if the recent report compiled by The Times' mystery guest counts for anything.

Listening to Radio Five Live's broadcast of the Liverpool v. Chelsea match, I heard the commentator tell listeners that he'd just received some racing news - Tony McCoy did not win the 4.10 at Fontwell. For that matter neither did Dominic Elsworth, Jamie Moore, Christian Williams, Aiden Coleman and Jack Doyle amongst others. Tom O'Brien, who did win the 4.10 at Fontwell, also failed to get a mention. You can understand why the champ, still two winners short of the magical 3,000, will be glad when the milestone has been reached and business can return to normal. If the predicted snow arrives, it's likely he'll have to wait towards the end of the week before he can try again.

Denman is scheduled to make his reappearance this weekend, either at Newbury on Saturday or over in Ireland on Sunday. I'm not a great one for ante-post betting but perhaps now is the time to consider the 3/1 offered by Coral and William Hill about Kauto Star to win the Gold Cup. If Denman's return proves to be below par, Kauto is likely to shorten; even if Denman delivers, Kauto still has an excellent chance, particularly if the race is run on decent ground.

Finally, here's a salutary tale to finish on. A colleague of mine popped into a William Hill shop early last week, took a pre-printed football coupon from one of the several holders found in such establishments and invested £2 of his own money on an eight match accumulator. The writing at the bottom of the slip indicated he would collect £70 should his eight predictions come to pass. As a matter of interest, he later logged onto his computer, typed in the same eight selections on the William Hill website and was horrified to discover that the online payout would be £88. Fortunately for him, West Brom failed to beat Manchester United.

Matters arising...

One approach I've tried in the past when searching for value is to oppose Paul Nicholls' runners early in the season, before the stable gets into full swing. Mr. Nicholls' four-timer at Chepstow on Saturday, complemented by Breedsbreeze's victory at Bangor, would appear to indicate I'll need to come up with something different this year.

Talk of Paul Nicholls and before long the subject of Denman crops up. The horse is a best-priced 13/8 shot to win the Gold Cup for a second time next March. The Aon Chase at Newbury in February is pencilled in as his target; no horse has returned to action so late and gone on to win chasing's Blue Riband in the last twenty years. Alan Lee's piece in Saturday's Times contained this interesting quote from the trainer about his charge: "It worried the hell out of me until we knew what it was ... He was losing condition and getting so tired he wouldn't even put his head over the door. The treatment knocked him back further but there's an 85 per cent chance he'll have no further problems..." Denman is presently confined to his box.

I didn't get time to look at the Bangor card before my post on Friday evening. More's the pity as I would probably have referred to an earlier blog note on Bill's Echo. "Bill's Echo ... will be worth a second look next time out." The blessed beast won Bangor's 2.25 at odds of 14/1.

You knew it had to happen - connections have decided to retire unbeaten filly Zarkava to stud. Her victory in the Arc will live long in the memory.

With the demise of Superform I have just purchased The Form Book Jumps Annual for the first time. This definitive reference work retails at £30 but is available from Amazon for just £19.50 with free delivery thrown in - the best book bargain I've bagged in ages!