A day at the Haydock races

You'd think they'd have learnt by now...

Some colleagues go to the Haydock races tomorrow for a stag do and they've asked for some tips. First one I gave was don't get married; after that, I told them this.

The main event at 2.50 is the Lancashire Oaks which will be run over one and a half miles. Last year's winner Barshiba heads the market and looks sure to run her race but no mare / filly has won this more than once. Having said that Barshiba is as tough as old boots, has her own way of doing things and ran a fine race at Royal Ascot to finish third behind Harbinger and Duncan. Prior to that she had finished fourth behind three of tomorrow's opponents, Les Fazzani, Polly's Mark and Roshiba over this course and distance on good to soft ground. Should enough rain arrive before the off, Les Fazzani would make plenty of appeal to confirm form with the favourite while Polly's Mark reopposes Kevin Ryan's charge on three pounds worse terms for a head defeat. You'd expect improvement on the first run from Sir Michael Stoute's Rosika who will be better suited by decent ground but has enough to find on official ratings; Coral go 12/1 this evening which may make some each-way appeal. The same firm go 16/1 Barry Hills' Champagnelifestyle. This three-year-old was the subject of some bullish comments before the Epsom Oaks but she looked to fade in the final furlong; connections were puzzled by that run but report her in good form, although they think a drop of rain would help the cause. They clearly think plenty of this one, summarised by this quote after Epsom:

'We still believe we have a talented filly and there will be another day for her.'

Champagnelifestyle each-way is the suggestion at 16/1. A couple of stats - three favourites have won in the last ten years while the winner has come from the first three in the betting eight times over the same period.

As usual, the Old Newton Cup (3.25) looks devilishly difficult. I used the following to narrow the field a little... Nine of the last ten winners carried more than 8st 7lbs but only three have carried more than 9st; in the past decade all winners have been aged four or five. Last year Red Merlin took the spoils and he tries again tomorrow but I'll take a small each-way interest in another red, Red Cadeaux. He was priced up at 14/1 earlier today but this evening is just 11/1, so somebody must be backing him. Recent stable form would be a very real worry.

Berling will be a short-price to take the opener but I told the future groom to take a chance with Anhar (15/2 Stan James); if nothing else, he'll have something to remember his carefree days by...

Over at Sandown the Eclipse doesn't look quite up to scratch this year and, judging by the offers of reduced priced tickets I've received this past week, others are of the same opinion. Six are set to face the starter in what could well develop into a tactical affair. On ratings Twice Over is the one to beat while Dar Re Mi bids to become the first filly / mare to win in eighteen years. Connections will hope Zacinto can fulfil his potential with this step up to ten furlongs while Marcus Tregoning wants the rain to stay away in the hope Mawatheeq can come on for his seasonal debut following a spell on the sidelines through injury. Mawatheeq (6/1) is the interesting one but I'll watch from the sidelines.

Some thoughts on Sandown and the Lancashire Oaks

Sea The Stars, having missed the Irish Derby last Sunday on account of easy ground, bids to become the first horse since Nashwan twenty years ago to add a victory in the Eclipse to victories in the Guineas and the Derby. The ten furlong trip looks ideal and he looks likely to start odds-on favourite. Favourites don't have a good record in this; over the last ten years only Hawk Wing (8/15f) has obliged and we've seen two big-priced winners in Oratorio at 12/1 in 2005 and Compton Admiral at 20/1 in 1999. For the record, the classic generation has won four of the past ten renewals. Earlier in the week I'd lined up an each-way wager on Mike de Kock's Archipenko as my tip but the beast was found to have a swollen fetlock on Thursday morning. I think this is Rip Van Winkle's trip but he has been the subject of a slight scare story earlier today; Jimmy Fortune deputises for the suspended Johnny Murtagh. Really this is a race to watch and savour; I expect the favourtite to win but he'll be no betting proposition. If I indulge, I'll take a small each-way interest in Henry Cecil's Twice Over who on official ratings has some six pounds to find with the top-rated Conduit. Victor Chandler go 20/1 this evening.

On official ratings Gravitation is the one to beat in the Coral Marathon run over a distance of two miles at 4.20. Having said that, Gravitation ran something of a stinker last time and Willie Jarvis' yard is currently out of sorts. Judgethemoment was withdrawn from last weekend's Northumberland Plate (in which Wells Lyrical finished second) just an hour before the off on account of soft ground. There seems little likelihood those conditions will prevail tomorrow and his chance is respected. However I'm going to side with Amerigo who was well-touted for the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot. He didn't help his cause by pulling hard that day and this tough two miles should suit better; Coral offer 5/1 this evening.

No bet for me in the opening five furlong Coral Charge which looks a hot event. The three-year-old Triple Aspect is top-rated and has a good draw in stall eleven. Two Royal Ascot sprinters will make this interesting; Anglezarke, third in the King's Stand Stakes, goes from stall ten and Ialysos, unplaced in the Golden Jubilee Stakes but unbeaten prior to that, goes from stall nine. Others who performed at Royal Ascot include Duff (eighth in the Golden Jubilee), Captain Gerard (fourth in the King's Stand) and Total Gallery (fourteenth in the Jersey).

In the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock I'm inclined to oppose Barry Hills' High Heeled as I've read in a couple of places that she likes 'to get her toe in'. According to the market, her only serious challenger is Flame Of Gibraltar. For me Take The Hint is of interest. On a bare reading of the form she has it all to do to reverse recent Ribblesdale running with Flame Of Gibraltar and the extra two furlongs here isn't certain to suit. Having said that, John Gosden's yard was going through a lean spell at that time; things look much better now. I don't think there's an awful lot between the two and at the prices I'll chance Take The Hint seeing out the trip - I'll have an each-way interest at around the 8/1 mark.