Thinking about the Festival...

Earlier today at Leopardstown Joncol pipped Cooldine in a thrilling finish to the Irish Hennessy; the winner is now a 7/1 shot with totepsort for the Ryanair Chase. The runner-up delighted Willie Mullins with his effort. Last year's RSA Chase winner has been out of sorts so far this term but the handler thinks his charge will come on for the run - Cooldine is quoted at 14/1 for the Gold Cup with most layers, behind Kauto Star (5/4) and Denman (9/4).

Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.

The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.

Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.

Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.

Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.

RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.

Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.

Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.

World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.

Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.

Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.

One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.

Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.

England to beat Ireland before Cheltenham?

Ireland entertain England at Croke Park this Saturday in the RBS Six Nations Championship. To my mind Martin Johnson's England showed plenty of improvement in their last match against Wales. They asked serious questions of the hosts, succeeded in scoring two fine tries, for the most part demonstrated resolute defence and, with more self-belief, could well have won that test match. Of course, the yellow cards were problematical but at the end of the game there were just eight points between the sides. As the final whistle sounded, there was no showboating from the Welsh players - the looks on their faces told you what we all knew - they'd been in an almighty tussle and were simply glad to have come through on top. Two weeks on and my guess is Martin Johnson will have made every attempt to address the disciplinary problems that have plagued the side. If you accept the above, then you'd have to be interested in the 11/4 Paddy Power are offering about an England win at Croke Park - Blue Square and 888sport only go 15/8.

One big Scoop6 Saturday

This Saturday's Scoop6 will be advertised as worth £2.5 million to a single winner. The win fund is currently worth just over £958,000 and the bonus fund £715,000. According to my calculations, there are 21,162,960 possible winning combinations; often horse racing is as much about numbers as horses. Both my regular readers will testify that, recently, I've had trouble tipping the winner of an eight runner bumper at Ludlow, never mind attempting six consecutive winners across three cards. I suppose it must be a challenge thing...

Leg 1 2.05 Newmarket: Cesare / Toylsome
Leg 2 2.20 Cheltenham: From Dawn To Dusk
Leg 3 3.05 Catterick: Matsunosuke
Leg 4 3.15 Newmarket: Literato
Leg 5 3.30 Cheltenham: Knowhere
Leg 6 3.55 Newmarket: Dr Sharp / Macorville
4 lines.

For the less reckless, Dr Sharp appears to have a decent each way chance in The Cesarewitch (and a good draw as well.) Over at Cheltenham, the 5.15 looks a hot novice chase. Likely favourite Patman Du Charmil is worth taking on with either Blu Teen or Ice Tea. Blu Teen disappointed when odds on at Market Rasen recently but Paul Nicholls commented that he was a big gross horse who was hard to get fit. The Racing Post adds that the animal bled last time so I'll take a chance with Ice Tea who jumped much better when winning well at Hexham last time and will be a bigger price as well.

Of course the Rugby World Cup final will dominate tomorrow's action. I'd expect a close game; at current prices England are the value. Whatever happens, let's hope potential try scorers ground the ball a little better than this unfortunate player...

Hey, John Motson! Sometimes I watch ITV

During yesterday's coverage of the England versus Estonia football match from Wembley, the irksome John Motson succeeded in irritating both Mrs Tips and myself even further by advertising, through the medium of television, the England versus France rugby semi-final coverage on Radio Five Live, describing the game as 'unmissable'.

Agreed, the match wasn't to be missed, but why would I choose to listen to it on Radio Five Live when I could watch it live on ITV1? I appreciate this must sound naive but we are all big boys and girls now; why can't commentators be a little bit more grown-up and accept the fact that viewers, in the comfort of their own living rooms, do actually change to competitor channels? England rugby fans will always want to see England playing live, not just when the BBC happens to transmit their matches.