Summer blues

Some summer. I've lost count of the money I've lost on holiday deposits and I've had to shell out a small fortune on facemasks and hand sanitiser.

Today's low grade handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot wouldn't normally generate much interest but desperate times call for desperate measures; if I were forced to list the negatives, this post would be longer than Delia Bushell's resignation letter and I'd struggle to publish before the off at 7.30.

A number in the field of 17 (non-runner Petrucci) aren't in the best of form and several commentators have highlighted the chance of Dan Skelton's mare Ever So Cool on the back of her fourth behind Mercian Prince (rated 122) in a novice event at Bangor in July. This is her first run in a handicap and, unsurprisingly, she's priced up favourite.

Skelton's near neighbour Robin Dickin saddles Secret Court, a mare with a similar profile who was run out of third spot in a novice event at Uttoxeter 10 days ago; winner Bit On The Side was given a rating of 121. 

Going off 100 here, Secret Court appears to have a couple of pounds in hand (according to my calculations) and looks closely matched with the favourite. The step back in trip and the good ground should both suit. 

The Dickin yard hasn't sent out a winner for 452 days so it's quite difficult to muster much confidence but those summer losses weigh heavy... 

With several layers offering 16/1 and paying one fifth the odds five places, I'm going to take an each-way interest in Secret Court. 

Fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat...

The manner in which Really Super, fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat, scooted clear in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen yesterday set me thinking. 

Flat racing emerged from lockdown on June 1st while jump racing had to wait until July 1st. Since the resumption of jump racing, how have horses that ran on the Flat in June fared on their first run back over jumps? 

The detail below shows they've fared rather well, returning a level stakes profit of over 45 points... 

Southwell 01.07.20  

12:00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran

12:30

Issac Wonder [17F] 12/1 WINS

Azzuri [29F] 5/4f second

Tonto's Spirit [6F] 17/2 sixth

Cracking Destiny [30F] 9/2 UR; 12 ran

1:10

No qualifiers; 12 ran

1:40

Flintrock [18F] 18/1 fifth

Zenafire [16F] 33/1 eighth; 12 ran

2:10

Medalla De Oro [27F] 11/2 second

Rhosneigr [23F] 6/1 fourth

Thrave [24F] 100/30 fifth; 12 ran

2:40

Ashutor [15F] 5/4f third

Seeusoon [23F] 14/1 fourth

Harbour Sunrise [20F] 250/1 sixth

Let Rip [22F] 7/1 eleventh; 12 ran

3:10

Byron Flyer [25F] 9/2 fourth

Paseo [16F] 14/1 seventh

Final Choice [19F] 50/1 eleventh

Stynes [22F] 28/1 twelfth; 12 ran

3.40 

St Gallen [29F] 3/1f  WINS

Scorched Earth [16F] 6/1 second

Dino Velvet [22F] 4/1 third

See The Sea [25F] 16/1 fourth

Carntop [15F] 7/2 sixth; 12 ran

4.10

Hattab [22F] 13/2 third

Magellan [21F] 9/2 fifth

Prabeni [18F] 18/1 sixth; 12 ran

Southwell aggregates:

108 runners

25 qualifiers

2 winners: Issac Wonder (12/1); St Gallen (3/1f).

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: -8 points

----------

Uttoxeter 06.07.20

12.55

Ginistrelli [26F] 2/1 WINS

Aleatoric [6F] 150/1 third

Employer [13F] 4/1 eighth; 11 ran

1.25

Check My Pulse [19F] 66/1 third

Fanfaronade  [13F] 40/1 eighth; 8 ran

1.55

Dariya [21F] 8/1 fifth; 12 ran

2.30

Diodorus [21F] 2/1 second

Escapability [24F] 11/8f third; 9 ran

3.00

Mister Universum [28F] 16/1 WINS; 9 ran

3.30

No qualifiers; 12 ran

4.00 

Whiskey And Water [18F] 13/2 second

Building Bridges [26F] 16/1 fourth; 12 ran

4.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

5.00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran.

Uttoxeter aggregates:

94 runners

11 qualifiers

2 winners: Ginistrelli (2/1); Mister Universum (16/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +9 points

----------

Newton Abbot 07.07.20

1.40

Hiconic [30F] 9/2 WINS

Peat Moss [14F] 6/1 third

Debt Of Honour [21F] 12/1 sixth

American Dreamer [20F] 22/1 seventh; 7 ran

2.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.40 

No qualifiers; 8 ran

3.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

3.45

No qualifiers; 8 ran

4.20

Hereia [32F] 8/1 fifth

Grapevine [23F] 14/1 sixth; 7 ran

4.50

Teaser [35F] 12/1 sixth; 9 ran

5.20

No qualifiers; 8 ran

5.50

No qualifiers; 9 ran

Newton Abbot aggregates:

74 runners

7 qualifiers

1 winner: Hiconic (9/2)

Profit / Loss to one point win stake: -1.5 points

----------

Stratford 08.07.20

12.15

No qualifiers; 8 ran

12.45

Beat The Judge [28F] 5/1 third

Oborne Lady [23F] 250/1 seventh; 9 ran

1.20

I'lletyougonow [31F] 25/1 second; 9 ran

1.50

Lady Reset [14F] 4/1 fourth; 11 ran

2.20

Romanor [33F] 28/1 WINS

Et Moi Alors [7F] 20/1 sixth; 10 ran

2.50

My Renaissance [20F] 8/1 seventh; 10 ran

3.20

Jamacho [17F] 11/4 WINS

Chelsea's Boy [23F] fifth 25/1; 9 ran

3.50

No qualifiers; 7 ran

4.20 

Valkenburg [23F] 13/8f PU; 8 ran

Stratford aggregates:

81 runners

10 qualifiers

2 winners: Romanor (28/1); Jamacho (11/4)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +21.75

----------

Market Rasen 10.07.20

12.00

Bear Valley [14F] 9/2 second

For Pleasure [15F] 13/2 third

Crimson King [17F] 40/1 tenth; 12 ran

12.30

No qualifiers; 7 ran

1.00

No qualifiers; 8 ran

1.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.05

Red Force One [13F] 5/1 WINS

Fair Mountain [24F] 12/1 second

Brandon Castle [20F] 11/2 fourth

Fiesole [34F] 20/1 seventh

Valentino Dancer [22F] 15/2 ninth

Red Tornado [22F] 33/1 PU; 10 ran

2.40

Really Super [38F] 25/1 WINS

Fidux [31F] 14/1 second

San Benedeto [24F] 17/2 eighth

Adrrastos [20F] 16/1 PU; 17 ran

3.15

Searching [10F] 8/1 WINS

Mantovani [19F] 15/2 third; 6 ran

3.50 

No qualifiers; 6 ran

4.20 

No qualifiers; 7 ran

Market Rasen aggregates:

82 runners

15 qualifiers

3 winners: Red Force One (5/1); Really Super (25/1); Searching (8/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +26 points

----------

According to the back of my fag packet a 1 point win wager on runners on their first run back over jumps after a pipe-opener on the Flat in June is currently showing a profit of 47.25 points. 

Time for a lie-down I think.

Brief notes for the new season

Summer highlight - picking up a copy of R.M. Bevan's The Roodee: 450 years of racing in Chester from Fossgate Books in Fossgate, York.

The book contains a picture of a particularly young-looking Willie Carson which brought back memories of this Jak cartoon originally published in the London Evening Standard 10 June 1980 and which I saw printed in the Liverpool Daily Post at roughly the same time.

Holidaymakers may have taken a dim view of the late summer rains but the benefit to jump racing has been obvious; we've already seen a number of decent performers in action, in stark contrast to last season.

Much to my dismay I wasn't able to attend Ludlow's first October meeting but Bigmartre's victory in the novice chase catches the eye, with Mad Jack Mytton third and my fancy, Mick Thonic, unseating Brian Cooper three out when probably held by the winner.

Similarly Shantou Rock's all-the-way win in a Newton Abbot novice earlier today warrants close inspection.

Finian's Oscar makes his chase debut at Chepstow tomorrow but Market Rasen Summer Plate winner Alcala will be no pushover. Paddy Power offered 5/1 about Paul Nicholls' charge earlier today; at the time of writing 7/2 is the best price available. I'm not going to play but I prefer Alcala.

If you fancy a wager in the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Hurdle (3.35 Chepstow) then a close look at the Fred Winter form from the Festival is de rigueur (Percy Street sixth, Dino Velvet eighth, Dolos thirteenth, Fidux nineteenth). I subsequently tipped Dolos to make amends at Ascot in April but So Celebre proved too good (Percy Street third). Before this race I fancied Dino Velvet with Alan King's yard in particularly good form but the current price makes no appeal.

In the Silver Trophy (4.10 Chepstow) I shall watch Alary with interest. On his first run for the stable in the Peter Marsh at Haydock last January he did not look good at all but connections clearly feel the talent is there. To my mind a number from the Tizzard yard are likely to come on for their first race this season and over the smaller obstacles this looks like a warm-up for the winter ahead.

Easter presents?

Earlier today Viewpoint went into the history books as the first horse to win a race in this country on Good Friday; jockey Cam Hardie steered Richard Hannon's inmate to victory in the opener at Lingfield, in the process recording his first win for the handler.

There are fixtures aplenty on Easter Saturday but finding a wager that makes some appeal hasn't proved particularly easy.

This weekend I was hoping Nigel Twiston-Davies would let King's Tempest, withdrawn at Exeter earlier in the week, take his chance in Sunday's bumper at Towcester but the horse hasn't make the final declaration stage.

I saw this one, still an entire, win at Warwick last month after which the handler said:

'He's as big as any horse we've got and hopefully he's as good. We've been excited since day one with him and he's a lovely horse for the future. I'd love to say we'd go to Aintree with him but it's all about the future and we might look for a similar race as today before putting him away.'

The same yard saddles Blaklion in the concluding bumper at Haydock tomorrow. This point winner trounced his field at Ffos Las three weeks ago and rates a decent hurdles prospect. He won't have things all his own way with Donald McCain's Degooch an interesting opponent - I'm not tempted.

Earlier on the same Haydock card Twiston-Davies runs Red Rocco in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase (3.50) over three and a half miles. On the face of it Red Rocco hasn't had the best of seasons but on his penultimate start he looked booked for second behind Rigadin De Beauchene in the Grand National Trial at this track before coming to grief at the final flight. Bennys Well is likely to make a bold bid from the front and Red Rocco is another who likes to race from the front; with just six in the field the front-runners could well set the race up for one from behind but Haydock suits those that sit handy. Tactics will be all-important but at the prices (9/2) I'll chance Red Rocco shows us some more of his improved form...

The going is good, good to firm in places at Newton Abbot where they're likely to go lickety-split in the two mile handicap chase at 3.55. Novice Sonofagun is the bookies' favourite on the back of two recent wins but he's taking on some smart rivals... Oiseau De Nuit, Changing The Guard and Shooters Wood were all unplaced in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last month. The first-named finished four lengths second to the champion two-mile chaser Sire De Grugy in December while course and distance winner Changing The Guard is weighted to reverse placings with the favourite on their recent Ludlow meeting.

Identifying a vulnerable favourite is only half the battle and this looks a particularly trappy event but I'm swayed by winning course form at this tight track - Changing The Guard (7/2) gets the nod.

Lord Mildmay Memorial Chase

The highlight on Saturday's Newton Abbot card is the listed Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase at 3.55. Eleven have been declared with last year's winner Shoegazer trying to repeat the trick off a mark ten pounds higher.

Toubab tries this trip for the first time while Kian's Delight possesses plenty of potential but looks short on chasing experience against some of these - no five-year-old has obliged in the past ten years.

Twirling Magnet is a more likely sort as is Bobowen, winner of the Market Rasen Summer Pate - Sam Twiston-Davies clearly prefers Dr Newland's charge to Billie Magern trained by his father. Both Bobowen and top weight The Disengager finished well-beaten in the Galway Plate 31 days ago - the former was pulled up while perhaps the latter ran better than his finishing position of twentieth (beaten over 171 lengths) might suggest after leading five out before being headed following a mistake three from home.

This race has thrown up some big priced winners in recent years including Snoopy Loopy 10/1 2008; Star Of Germany 14/1 2009 and Passato 14/1 in 2010.

I'll chance previous course and distance winner The Disengager, back on better ground after Galway; his running style is well-suited to this track.

Saturday's summer jumping at Newton Abbot

Glorious Goodwood for many, but it's Newton Abbot for me where there's a decent card on offer for the time of year.

The highlight is the two mile handicap chase at 3.55. Three weeks ago at Stratford Dineur beat Tindaro half a length while West With The Wind trailed in fourth and Anquetta fifth. Tindaro is two pounds better off this time around while Dineur appeared to have a hard enough race when fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen six days later. McCoy rides Paul Webber's charge tomorrow - I'm going to side with Tindaro (4/1 with Paddy Power this evening).

The two Ferguson horses (Plain Sailing and Beachfire) are likely to dominate betting in the opener and Akdam looks the answer to the 3.20 but will be no price.

On the other hand the three mile three furlong handicap hurdle at 4.30 appears far more competitive. A case can be made for several but this evening William Hill's 8/1 about Jeremy Scott's On The Bridge looks reasonable value - On The Bridge is the each-way suggestion.  
  

At Easter - to play or not to play?

Just a brief post this evening as I don't intend to play tomorrow.

Winners are difficult to find at the best of times. If you're considering a wager at Dubai or even Doncaster, you may wish to note Alistair Whitehouse-Jones' comments in the Weekender:

'By all means enjoy this weekend's Dubai World Cup, but you'd be crackers to have a bet in it. Since moving from Nad Al Sheba to Meydan in 2010 it has become harder to predict than the Lincoln, with not one single-priced figure horse finishing in the first three.'

Quickly looking at the Haydock card, the opening Tim Moloney Chase is interesting but it's difficult to gauge the extent to which recent snowfalls have affected trainers' schedules, particularly those based in the North. In a short piece on the Sporting Life website, Sue Smith gave a glimpse into some of the problems encountered.

The biggest temptation to the resolve is likely to come in the shape of Newton Abbot's SIS Handicap Chase at 3.55. Worth over £15,000 to the winner, there are just five declared for a trappy-looking handicap.

Ulck Du Lin, trained by Paul Nicholls, is priced up favourite; the youngest horse in the race has the assistance of Ruby Walsh in the plate but is tasked with carrying top weight on heavy ground. Just fifteen days ago Nicholls' charge was pulled up in the Grand Annual at the Festival and looks vulnerable.

The outsider in the field Falcon Island has form this season behind both Ulck Du Lin and Eastlake. He was beaten thirteen and a half lengths by the former at Ascot when conceding seven pounds and then went down eigtheen lengths to the latter at Sandown giving away ten pounds. On the revised terms he is entitled to be competitive and Brendan Powell Jr can claim a further three. Priced at 12/1 with Paddy Power this evening, that resolve not to play is being tested somewhat...

From Olympic golds to Newton Abbot

Last week's post on The Times' virtual medal table generated some interest, so I thought I'd follow up seven days on.

The supplement published with The Times on Thursday 26th July printed a virtual table for each day of the Olympics. At the close of business on Thursday August 2nd Team GB were predicted to have three gold medals whereas in actual fact they had five in the bag. If that advantage is maintained to the end of competition, Great Britain will finish with 21 golds, two more than predicted.

For those who may be interested in taking a position, I thought it would be useful to list the GB golds as predicted by The Times, starting from today.

Friday:
Kath Grainger / Anna Watkins, Women's double sculls

Saturday, predicted to be Team GB's best day:
Helen Jenkins, Triathlon
Men's Four, Rowing
Women's Team Pursuit, Cycling
Mo Farah, 10,000 metres

Sunday:
Ben Ainslie, Sailing

Monday:
Jason Kenny, Men's sprint cycling

Tuesday, predicted to be the second best day:
One of the Brownlee brothers, Triathlon
Victoria Pendleton, Cycling individual sprint
Sir Chris Hoy, Cycling keirin

Wednesday:
No golds

Thursday:
Savannah Marshall, Women's boxing
One other, not listed

Friday:
Sarah Stevenson (not selected on form)

Saturday:
Sprint canoeing x 2
One other not listed

Sunday:
No golds

You pays your money and takes your choice...

Personally I still think this looks a big ask, so instead I'll consider placing my money on Present To You in tomorrow's 2.35 at Newton Abbot.

The selection was beaten seven lengths by likely favourite Giant O'Murchu six days ago at Stratford over a distance just shy of two miles two furlongs. The shorter trip here appears in his favour, he now races on seven pounds better terms and connections have opted to try a visor for the first time. If the tissue price of 8/1 becomes available, David Bridgwater's charge looks reasonable each-way value.

Easter Saturday jumpers

A busy time ahead with the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Monday followed by Aintree's version the following Saturday...

Haydock hosts the main jumps card tomorrow; five go in the opener. Course and distance winner Charminster will be popular and the percentage call but Alan King must surely feel Lidar has never quite lived up to expectations - the fences have had a tendency to get in the way on occasions. If the gelding is allowed to take his chance, connections will be hoping first-time cheekpieces can bring out some improvement. I've been scalded before with this one and, although he's closely matched with Charminster on ratings, on balance I don't feel inclined to give him another chance.

The 2.25 looks difficult but fancied horses French Ties and Tiger O'Toole both come with questions marks around their jumping.

Brian Ellison saddles seven of the twenty runners in the 2.55 with Hada Men representing the handler's best chance if the market is to be believed - the past three favourites have all obliged. I'll take an each-way interest in John Ferguson's Monarch's Way.

Persian Snow (4.05) would be worth an each-way wager at around the 10/1 mark.

In the long distance chase at 4.40 Dom D'Orgeval bids to repeat last year's win and ran a fair trial over a distance shorter than ideal the last time at Newbury. However, at the age of 12, the chances are one or two will be too quick, especially if the ground remains good. Wide Receiver (registered owners - Girls Allowed) is guaranteed to stay but had a hard race last time while top-weight Drumbaloo and Emperor Concerto wouldn't be certain to see out the trip. Outsider Seize isn't totally disregarded but I'm focusing on Bradley, Jaunty Journey and Graduation Night - Graduation Night gets the vote with this small yard having recorded two winners in the past fortnight.

In the RP Weekender Alan King had a big word for Hindon Road (3.05 Newton Abbot) but the gelding will be priced accordingly. The same trainer saddles Oh Crick in the SIS Handicap Chase 35 minutes later, a two mile Class 2 event with over £20,000 added. Only eight in the field but they're likely to go lickety-split on the fast ground at this tight track - I'll watch from the sidelines.

West Country memories

Simon Nott's tribute to on-course bookmaker Brian Edwards in this month's Racing Ahead brought back a couple of memories. Brian, who traded as George Edwards Plymouth, died on 17th July after a long struggle with cancer. I struck a few bets with Brian at Newton Abbot and Devon & Exeter back in the early nineties, a time when I was green enough to think I might come out on top...

In particular I recall going to Newton Abbot one fine spring evening to back a horse called Biloxi Blues in the handicap chase. The grey had decent form in the book and, at a time when Mark Coton's Value Betting was all the rage, I thought I'd stumbled on a value bet and a bit more as the daily papers reported the price as 6/1. Finishing work early, I drove to the course but was more than a little dismayed to see the bookies open with Biloxi at 6/4. The price soon began to contract so, making the best of a bad job, I walked up to Brian and asked for a fiver at 11/8. Quick as a flash, he reported 7/5 to his clerk and I walked away, not quite sure whether I'd been done or not.

The race itself proved rather eventful... Dean Gallagher decided to try and make all on outsider Wimbleball and he quickly built up a lead of twenty lengths or so. Despite hitting a couple of fences fairly hard, Wimbleball was clearly enjoying himself and his lead was still intact halfway down the back straight second time around before Richard Dunwoody decided it was time to play catch-up on Biloxi. Wimbleball wasn't for stopping and had the race in the bag coming to the last but he took one last liberty with that last fence and came crashing to the ground; Dunwoody carried out a nifty piece of steering, jumped the obstacle safely and 5/4  favourite Biloxi Blues collected the spoils. Brian's face told its own story immediately after the race; a couple of punters looking to collect before the winning jockey had dismounted were given short shrift.

Some 15 years later I was at Exeter with two brothers-in-law for the 2004 New Year's Day meeting. We hadn't been that successful but my companions had compensated by indulging in several of their favourite beverages. Waiting for the free bus home, my colleagues asked for an opinion on the concluding bumper. Philip Hobbs' Supreme Serenade was odds-on but I ventured they might want to consider opposing with Paul Nicholls' Alexanderthegreat; this conversation took place outside a couple of ptiches, one of which belonged to Brian. Brian appeared to be in conversation with his fellow layer but as soon as he heard me mention Alexanderthegreat, he immediately marked the horse out from 5/1 to 11/2. I started to smile but these subtle nuances escaped my inebriated colleagues who then demanded an explanation. I tried but it was proving hard work and at the end of it all one brother-in-law walks straight up to the layer offering 5/1 and strikes his bet...

In the event, Nicky Henderson's Copsale Lad (3/1) won impressively from Alexanderthegreat. Copsale Lad did me a couple of favours after that and some three years later popped up at Newbury at odds of 14/1. Unfortunately on that occasion I'd bid more than I should have for a day at the races with The Times' Alan Lee and he'd tipped me the second, Minella Tipperary...

R.I.P. Brian Edwards.

Lord Mildmay Memorial Chase

I was on business in north Wales earlier today and called in to the Pant yr Ochain for a spot of lunch, only to bump into a number of very smartly dressed young people on their way to Chester races; favourites won three of the six races on the card so I guess there's a fair chance a few of them will have gone home smiling.

Chester race again tomorrow but I'm concentrating on the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot run over a trip of two miles five and a half furlongs. Paul Nicholls fields four of the sixteen declared, while Peter Bowen runs three and Jonjo O'Neill two. The booking of Ruby Walsh for course and distance winner Roby De Cimbre indicates that one is the main hope for the Nicholls' stable - the Sporting Life tissue has the horse priced at 7/1 this evening.

If you're going to play in this race you have to look at the form of the Summer Plate run at Market Rasen five weeks ago. On that occasion Nostringsattached pipped stablemate Keepitsecret a short head on the line with Peter Bowen's No Panic a neck behind in third. The second and third re-oppose and are closely matched again; Keepitsecret looked unfortunate at Market Rasen - the slightly shorter trip here should help. Of the principals, I prefer Keepitsecret but the one that has caught my eye at a bigger price is Peter Bowen's Always Waining. Carrying top weight, this one finished fifth at Market Rasen just two and a half lengths behind the winner. That's his best effort for a long time - priced up at 12/1 in the tissue he's worth an each-way interest, although I will point out that stable form is worrying with no winners in the past five weeks.

Newton Abbot, Market Rasen, duff football bet

Last time out Alan King's Ruff Diamond beat Karashar a half length in a novice hurdle at Bangor; the pair meet again in the opener at Newton Abbot tomorrow. At the weights Karashar should reverse the form but Ruff Diamond didn't jump particularly well on that occasion so it could be close. Ruff Diamond is well regarded but looks tricky; I prefer David Pipe's Bathwick Man. Of those making their hurdling debuts, Highland Lassie is the most interesting.

The feature race is the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase at 3.35 with £40,000 up for grabs. Paul Nicholls' five year old Roby De Cimbre is likely to start favourite but he's inexeperienced compared to many of these and tries a trip further than two miles for the first time. Full House has done this blog a favour or two over the years but his last run on the Flat in the Chester Cup was abysmal and hinted that he may not be totally in love with the game. In a competitive heat I'll take a chance with William Butler who ran well to finsh third in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen. He's had a break since so should come to this refreshed. He's The Gaffer, rated 132 over fences, had a five day entry for this race but connections have opted to run him in the concluding handicap hurdle instead off a rating of just 93! Many will consider him a snip but at cramped odds I won't be getting involved.

At Market Rasen's evening fixture the two that interest me in the feature race at 6.30 are Nelson's Spice and Rookery Lad. Nelson's Spice has plenty of potential while Rookery Lad flagged a return to form last time out in a fast-run race. Connections have let a couple of opportunities pass by for the gelding on account of unsuitable ground; Rookery Lad is priced up at around 6/1 this evening which is tempting. I note that the opening race is named 'Wedding Fair Here 26th October Juvenile Maiden Hurdle' - scary indeed!

On the footballing front, regular readers will know that Wrexham's relegation to the Blue Square Premier at the end of last season caused considerable pain. Five games in and I'm learning, albeit very slowly. Before a ball was kicked Stevenage Borough were favourites to win the title but have started poorly, are currently one off the bottom and have a goal difference of minus eleven. By contrast Barrow, of whom moderate things were expected, have started well, and can point to a win against Mansfield among their early season exploits. The pair meet tomorrow. I'm not keen on football betting but totesport go 6/4 Barrow to win at home which looks decent enough value.

Forward planning

Jump jockey Robert 'Choc' Thornton may look good on the back of a novice chaser, but modelling items of clothing for The Cheltenham Collection appears a rather different proposition altogether; I'm afraid I'm not convinced. The reason I bring this to your attention is that I received a selection of promotional literature from Cheltenham racecourse in today's mail. I was intrigued to discover, for example, that there are several 'Cheltenham festivals', covering topics such as jazz, science, music and literature, none of which I have even the slightest inclination of attending, you will be pleased to hear. The racecourse's main brochure is exquisitely produced, incorporates some spectacular photographs of the track and welcomes readers to the new season with the words 'The excitement mounts'. It's whetted the appetite. Alan Lee writes in today's Times 'Most people only go racing if they have had the outing in the diary for months ahead...' and how right he is; with rising gas and electricity prices, it takes that amount of time to save up enough for a couple of small bets (useful tip - child benefit payments can be legitimately used to boost betting funds if necessary). I shall just have to do more forward planning. In the meantime, Saturday is Variety Club Day at Sandown but, with all this talk about the jumping game, I simply have to focus on the cards at Newton Abbot and Market Rasen over the weekend.

I've had a tip...

I've had a tip, and I don't get many. Regular readers will, quite rightly, take the view it surely can't do any worse than most of the beasts recommended here every week. A colleague I go racing with has told me connections of Five A Side think the horse has an each-way shout in the 4.00 at Newton Abbot tomorrow. It looks a competitive race. As with any tip, you can either take it or leave it - the choice is yours...

Easter Saturday

Tomorrow at 4.00pm Doncaster hosts the Lincoln on what is traditionally considered the first day of the new Flat season. I've always considered the race a bit of a lottery and won't be getting involved. Several of the fancied ante-post runners, including Zaahid and Don't Panic, failed to make the cut and race in the Spring Mile at 2.50 instead. With the ground riding good to soft, the general opinion seems to be that high drawn runners could be at a disadvantage. Rio Riva has been touted in several quarters during the week, was second in this race last year (when run at Newcastle), is joint top rated in The Racing Post, will handle the ground and has a decent draw in stall five; that's a number of positives but, as I've indicated, I won't be playing.

The jumping cards on offer are not out of the top drawer. At Haydock Captain Oscar looks the one to beat in the concluding bumper while, a bit further north, in Carlisle's opener several of the runners are closely matched. King Mak would have won last time out at Market Rasen but for trying to demolish the last fence - he gets the vote here.

Only six go to post at 3.30 for Newton Abbot's best race of the day and question marks surround all the participants. Likely favourite Squires Lane might be considered somewhat fortunate to have won last time; here he's taking on horses that have been running in better class races without showing too much form. Both Mister Ed and The Risky Viking are preferred to the twelve year old Paxford Jack. The Peter Bowen stable hasn't had the best of seasons but is now returning from a quiet spell but I'll take a chance with Nick Williams' The Risky Viking if he's priced up around 4/1.

Chester and Newton Abbot selections

Bauer has been discussed in a previous post and according to early tissue shows is put in as the 3/1 favourite for the 2.50 at Chester tomorrow. The race is no foregone conclusion; I'm concerned by the horse's tendency to race mid-division or off the pace as Chester is a sharp track that favours those racing prominently. Still, I'm sure jockey Eddie Ahern will be aware of the dangers - I see Bauer going close. Only six go to post in the Conditions Stakes at 4.00 with the York Gimcrack form represented by Imperial Mint and Nacho Libre. Imperial Mint is the top rated horse on official figures and gets the vote.

Over at Newton Abbot the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase has added prize money of £35000. Many of the runners are fairly well exposed. Peter Bowen will have targetted this race for Iron Man and Tommy Spar; of these two I prefer the former who ran out when in the lead in the Galway Plate. Chilling Place would be dangerous if sorting out his jumping problems while bottom weight Kings Brook won this last year but has disappointed recently. I tend to prefer an up and coming chaser for this; I respect Iron Man but will take an each way chance with Paul Nicholls' Forest Green who is unexposed and 'could be anything' as the saying goes.

Mid season sale at Ladbrokes

In a nutshell - Frankie Dettori wins the French Oaks, Paddy Brennan breaks his collar bone in a fall at Stratford, and turnover (and thereby profits) must be down at Ladbrokes as they're offering an extra 10% on all virtual racing singles today. I don't find it easy going through all that virtual racing form, so it's unlikely I'll be tempted because, as we all know, an extra 10% on nothing is nothing.

Blandings Castle, having won on his first appearance for six months last time out, looks worth keeping an eye on in the 3.00 at Newton Abbot; however his current price of 9/4 is no value whatsoever. I saw his main market rival, Johnston's Swallow, win at Towcester on Friday. JS isn't one to trust implicitly; he was comprehensively outjumped down the back straight by Mr Bigglesworth and looked in trouble but made up his ground on the climb to the finishing line.

Jacob's Cracker

5lb claimer D. Jacob is booked to ride Cream Cracker in the 3.15 at Newton Abbot tomorrow and they can prove a winning combination provided the rain doesn't spoil the party.

The 8 year old mare is officially rated 123, 9lbs higher than the less experienced Barton Flower, yet both horses are set to carry the same weight under the conditions of the race.

Of the other runners, Sakenos' debut over fences at Fontwell just two days ago was less than impressive while Arresting won nicely enough at Perth.

Cream Cracker looks more experienced than her rivals but wouldn't want the ground too soft; she rates a value bet at 9/4, the tissue price quoted on the Sporting Life website today.

Incidentally, I'm surprised to see Is It Me declared for the 6.20 at Market Rasen, given connections rate the colt a potential Triumph hurdle candidate. I expect the horse to win, but at long odds on he's not a betting proposition.