World Cup wagers - update

Following on from my last post, with all the group stage matches now completed, I have been asked to provide updated figures for the predictions made by Nicolas Scelles and his research team at the University of Stirling.


So, here goes...


The correct score prices quoted were the best available as shown on the Oddschecker site on Wednesday-Thursday 11-12 June, before a ball had been kicked in the competition.


Interestingly, in the correct score markets Ladbrokes were best or joint-best priced on 31 of the 48 matches (64.58%) while BetVictor were best or joint-best priced on 12 of the 48 matches (25%).


Six correct scorelines were predicted from the 48 group games as shown below:

Chile 3 Australia 1 - 15/1 BetVictor

Ivory Coast 2 Japan 1 - 11/1 Ladbrokes

Argentina 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 17/2 Ladbrokes

Ghana 1 USA 2 - 12/1 Ladbrokes

Australia 0 Spain 3 - 13/2 Paddy Power

Portugal 2 Ghana 1 - 8/1 Ladbrokes / BetVictor

Figures to nominal £1 bet per match:

Win strike-rate:  6/48 - 12.5%

Outlay: £48.00

Return: £67.00

Profit: £19.00

Profit as % of turnover: 39.58%

World Cup wagers?

For the first time in many years I've had to forgo Royal Ascot form study.

The World Cup has proved a distraction, particualry the article entitled 'Prediction' compiled by researchers at the University of Strirling and published on The Scorecard website.

Bravely, the team at Stirling has predicted correct score outcomes for all matches at the 2014 World Cup.

As an exercise, using Oddschecker as the comparison tool, I noted the best prices in correct scores markets for the 48 scheduled group games before a ball had been kicked in the competition.

At the time of writing the team has predicted three correct scores from eleven completed games:

Chile 3 Australia 1  (15/1 BetVictor)
Ivory Coast 2 Japan 1 (11/1 Ladbrokes)
Argentina 2 Bosnia 1 (17/2 Ladbrokes)

A nominal £1.00 correct score wager on each of the completed games to date shows a healthy-looking profit of £25.50 on £11 staked.

Of course, as always, past results are not necessarily a guide to future performance...    

Doc Martin, Andy Murray, Choc Thornton, Avram Grant and the man who ate his winning lottery ticket...

There was plenty of action at Fontwell this afternoon... First time blinkers appeared to rekindle Trenchant's appetite as Alan King's charge won the Grade Two National Spirit Hurdle while Martin Clunes, star of Men Behaving Badly and Doc Martin, was hoping Buffalo Stampede, the horse owned by his TV company, would prove a star in the making - unfortunately the beast hadn't read the script and trailed in last of the seven finishers.

The Times reported recently that tennis ace Andy Murray had his first taste of the races and was suitably impressed. Mind you, it was at Dubai's Meydan racecourse and is a world away from a Monday afternoon card at Plumpton in the middle of winter...

A couple of Festival titbits - Robert 'Choc' Thornton appears to have picked up two decent spare rides in Somersby (Arkle) and Twist Magic (Champion Chase). The Weekender reports that Choc was approached about Twist Magic last week - a decision was made after Oh Crick finished a well-beaten fourth in Ascot's Betfair Chase. Oh Crick will now go either for the Champion or the Grand Annual; if connections take the former option, Wayne Hutchinson will ride. I'm sure Choc won't need me to remind him that last year Twist Magic dumped pilot Sam Thomas on the turf right in front of the stands as they went to post. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander worked with a stablemate after racing at Kempton on Saturday and is reportedly in good health and on track for the Gold Cup.

100 days to the World Cup in South Africa and people are starting to talk about football's financial crisis. Following their coverage of the Manchester United v. Aston Villa Carling Cup final this afternoon, the BBC ran a trailer for a Radio 5 Live progamme Business Of Sport which will discuss the issue on Tuesday evening at 20:00. I suspect much of this has been brought about by Portsmouth becoming the first Premier League side to go into administration - manager Avram Grant considers the League's nine point deduction unfair. Now I have every sympathy with this view but such events are a common occurence lower down the footballing hierarchy and have been for some time. Contrast Portsmouth's situation with that of Chester City who were expelled from the Blue Square Premiership on Friday morning following a meeting at Rushden. Chester started the season on -25 points and were still in negative territory when they played their last game; the club is now up for sale for just £1. The men with the money - what have they gone and done to the beautiful game?

Finally, you would be tempted to place a headline 'Man Eats Winning Lottery Ticket' in the same bracket as 'Routemaster Discovered On The Moon' or 'Politician Tells The Truth'. On Friday a passenger travelling from Krakov in Poland to East Midlands Airport with Ryanair won 10,000 euros (roughly £8,930) on a scratchcard. When he was informed there wasn't enough cash on board to pay him immediately, he became agitated and promptly ate the winning ticket, thereby forfeiting any chance of collecting his prize. Understandably, the man wishes to remain anonymous...

England & Sven - two schools of thought

It seems there are two schools of thought on England's performances in the World Cup to date.

The first school is of the opinion that the team has reached the quarter final stage of the competition without playing well. Nonetheless the opposition has been beaten; if a team can reach this stage without playing well, it augurs well for the future. Proponents of this view affirm there's a big game in this England team and we're going to see it in the next match.

The second school of thought also acknowledges that the team has not played well. The prevailing view is that the team has been performing way below expectations and when the stiffer opposition comes along the side's inherent weaknesses will be fully exposed.

Quoting from today's Times, "If Luiz Felipe Scolari beats Sven-Göran Eriksson for the third time, perhaps he will get to keep him. It is a prospect that seems probable on form and history..."

If you subscribe to this second viewpoint then 11/4 Portugal to beat England in 90 minutes with both Victor Chandler and Betdirect looks very good value indeed.

World Cup fans better behaved than Ascot punters

The Sun leads today with the story that more drunken punters have been arrested during the first three days at Royal Ascot than England football fans following their team in Germany.

HRH The Queen will not be amused.

Rumours that Prince Philip was found drunk in charge of a horse and cart are wide of the mark.

Ascot this year seems to have centred around opinions on the new stand, Jodie Kidd peering over Willie Carson's top hat to front the BBC's fashion coverage and popped-up punters taking a pop at one another.

Whatever happened to the racing?

More to the point, does anyone know when's the next meeting at Newton Abbot?

Buying money when England play

The best money I've made on the World Cup so far was in Liverpool on Thursday evening when England were playing Trinidad & Tobago.

I walked into a bar which offered the following deal - all beers £1.50 until the first England goal.

After 70 minutes I asked the barmaid what would happen if it was 0-0 - would I be allowed to camp over until the Sweden game.

Two of us in a round - that's £3 a round; it was literally like buying money.

The World Cup and The Sportsman

Just four days to go before the big kick off.

The new paper The Sportsman will be hoping for a good World Cup; daily sales are currently below 20,000 with 40,000 established as the break even figure.

I've bought the paper on a couple of occasions. I'd have to say I haven't seen another single customer buy a copy; it's not available in a lot of newsagents.

Priced at £1 I think it's fair value but others disagree. Many commentators think the paper will be out of business by the end of the year.

Come on guys - if your circulation figures need increasing, why not offer the punters a free bet on the football?

World Cup nostalgia from Wales

I grew up in Wrexham, north Wales, something of a footballing backwater. The two teams I supported then, and still do now, are Wrexham and Wales.

Recently a colleague has loaned me a copy of 'When Pele broke our hearts - Wales & the 1958 World Cup' by Mario Risoli. This book is an enlightening read in an age when many footballers are paid tens of thousands of pounds a week.

Here's a taster.

May 1957 and Wales face two World Cup qualifying games behind the Iron Curtain, East Germany in Leipzig and then Czechoslovakia in Prague seven days later. On the flight out the non-playing staff outnumber the players 13-12.

After defeat in Gemany, Wales are forced to call for replacements. One player targeted is Sunderland centre half Ray Daniel. At the time Daniel was on holiday in Swansea; he contacts Sunderland and asks them to send his boots to London. Sunderland send him a brand new pair of boots; this proves to be a bit of a problem.

Quoting another squad member...
"The boots in those days were thick and heavy-leathered with hard toes and knock-in studs.
It would take you about 12 months to break them in. They were very, very uncomfortable. We would put them in soapy water to soften them up and then stuff them with brown paper so they would fill out."

Daniel was in agony in his new boots, so much so that for the last 10-15 minutes of the match he took them off and played in just his socks.

Tell me, where did it all go wrong?