What's this? A Cobra in the Badger Beers...

What with one thing and another there have been a few fireworks this week... Now, I appreciate you wouldn't normally expect a brief preview of Wincanton's Badger Beers Silver Trophy (3.35) to start with a discussion about recent results at Hexham - but what the hell has been happening at Hexham?

Prompted by Evita Du Mesnil's victory in the first at Hexham today, I've had a quick look at Hexham results since the resumption of racing on July 1st - when starting prices started to be determined by the industry.

According to my fag-packet calculations there have been six meetings (44 races) at Hexham since the beginning of July; check the starting prices of these winners: 

02.09.20 18:00 race: Costly Dream 40/1

15.09.20 15:40 race: Daimiens Dilemma 28/1

02.10.20 13:15 race: Golden Robin 66/1

10.10.20 13:25 race: McGinty's Dream 20/1

25.10.20 12:55 race: Kilcaragh Boy 66/1

06.11.20 13:10 race: Evita Du Mesnil 80/1

There have been some fancy prices about placed horses too including Molly Whuppie (15.09.20 14:10 race 66/1 second); Pass Rusher (02.10.20 13:45 race 33/1 second); Farlam King (25.10.20 15:50 race 200/1 second); and Farran Dancer (06.11.20 15:30 race 40/1 second).

Any theories? Please feel free to send me some money-making ideas...

Finding a juicy priced winner on tomorrow's card at Paul Nicholls' local track looks decidedly difficult. 

To date Nicholls has won the Badger Beer ten times and holds three chances of making it eleven - Danny Whizzbang, Present Man and My Way. Danny looks short on chase experience, My Way has yet to win over fences while previous winner Present Man likes it around here but came up short last year and is, like me, getting no younger. The last horse older than nine to come home in front was Flaked Oats in the year 2000 - trained by Paul Nicholls.

This race hasn't been particularly kind to me over the years and wouldn't be one of my favourites - there may be a causal link there. With layers not looking keen to take too many chances, I'm going to make the case for Cobra De Mai. 

In a recent Racing TV Stable Tour piece (dated 22.10.20) trainer Dan Skelton said:

"He has struggled against the handicapper since he won at Cheltenham last April but I do believe we are somewhere near back to an optimistic mark. He ran the other day at Fontwell but he wants a bit of nice ground, three miles and a chance off the handicapper." 

Cobra should have conditions to suit tomorrow. 

He finished ninth behind Give Me A Copper in last year's renewal off a mark of 150 - and goes off 138 tomorrow. The handicapper dropped the gelding two pounds following his last run where he didn't jump well in Frodon's race at Cheltenham; I'm prepared to forgive that effort. He went off 11/2 third favourite that day, yet he's generally priced up at 14/1 for this lower grade race. 

You can't blame regular pilot Harry Skelton for choosing to go to Aintree for a nice-looking book of rides that includes Wilde About Oscar, Bennys King and Ch'tibello; Bridget Andrews will certainly be up to the task if the horse is. 

Cobra's sixth behind The Conditional at the Festival in March reads well and I think he was probably undone by the soft ground at Fontwell on the seasonal reappearance. I'm hoping the application of first-time blinkers helps to trigger a return to form as he races now from a mark that is four pounds lower than when he last won.

William Hill are paying five places; Cobra De Mai, currently 14/1, is the each-way selection.

To finish, a couple of quick snippets...

Local trainer Robin Dickin sent out his first winner in over 500 days at Huntingdon on Sunday. Owned by The Cocoa Nuts & The Tricksters, Mr Palmtree comfortably disposed of his rivals at odds of 12/1. The signs were there but, unfortunately, I completely missed them. Off a revised rating of 93, Mr Palmtree should remain competitive at his level.

Current coronavirus restrictions can only be considered a hindrance so Willie Mullins' decision to send Eight And Bob over to contest tomorrow's Pertemps Qualifier at Aintree (1.35) catches the eye. A quick trawl through the form left me slightly bewildered but the beast should be fit enough after a summer campaign on the Flat.

A chance at Chepstow

Tomorrow Wales face Australia at Twickenham in the Rugby World Cup while the Welsh football team travel to Zenica requiring just one point against Bosnia-Herzegovina to ensure a place in the finals of a major tournament for the first time since 1958.

Small wonder then that Chepstow's weekend cards have passed under the radar.

For many in years gone by, this meet signified the start of the National Hunt season 'proper'.

Philip Hobbs' Sausalito Sunrise goes in Saturday's feature chase at 5.05. On his seasonal debut last year the gelding won the novice chase on this card (Sego Success fourth) but was subsequently beaten twice by David Pipe's Kings Palace. A strapping course and distance winner, he would probably benefit from further rain but hails from a yard with a 38.46% win strike rate this month and is priced up 4/1 favourite this evening.

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls saddles Cowards Close, an unexposed type who has done most of his winning on right-handed tracks . Quoting from The Guardian's horse by horse guide to the stable:

'Chasing has been the making of this horse, who won the Royal Artillery Gold Cup at Sandown in February. He’s got loads of ability but he’s quite fragile and he hated the soft ground at Sandown that day. He had a few minor problems after that, so he didn’t run again but he’ll be ready in October to run at Chepstow or Cheltenham. If we can keep him sound, he’s definitely handicapped to win.'

Of the thirteen declared just four have seen a racecourse in the past two months - Standing Ovation (winner of a Listed chase at Uttoxeter on his penultimate start), Buachaill Alainn (winner of a Class 3 chase at Worcester in August), Garrahalish (third behind Dursey Sound at Warwick eighteen days ago) and Terminal (pulled up in Dursey Sound's Warwick race); those runners may have a fitness edge.

I was tempted by the Nicholls horse but the 6/1 available is eclipsed by the 14/1 Coral offer about Peter Bowen's course and distance winner Buachaill Alainn; I'll take an each-way interest and hope the step up in class doesn't prove his undoing.

Sunday's card at the Welsh track should see Emerging Talent take the Persian War Novices' Hurdle at 4.30 while Sire De Grugy didn't made the final declarations for the feature chase at 3.55 but Colin Tizzard's Third Intention stands his ground.

A quick footnote to finish - I shall watch Arco (Mr Ross Turner up, claiming seven) with some interest in tomorrow's concluding bumper at Hexham. Writing in the Weekender, handler Philip Kirby explains:

'She was as wild as a bear to break, but hats off to Ross Turner who has put hours in on her and has helped her to mature so much. She is a nice sort...I would love Ross to be able to ride her after he made her what she is.'

Good luck to the both of them!

Some Saturday suggestions

Those who have followed the blog over the summer months will know I've concentrated on horses with jumps form racing over distances beyond one and a half miles on the Flat; several familiar names are entered up for tomorrow's Cesarewich which is run over two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and is due off at 3.50. Of the 34 declarations, 16 have some type of NH form to their name; they are listed below with brief comments:

Sentry Duty Not the easiest to catch right and IMO better with some cut. Sixth last year;
Veiled Tipped on the blog, took the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Every chance;
Keys In my mind not certain to see out this extended trip;
Dayia 80/1 (Coral) is a big price about Lady Green's brown mare but her best form has been with cut;
My Arch Eighth last year;
La Estrella Done most of his winning in races with no more than 12 runners;
Phoenix Flight Out of sorts after excellent third behind Veiled at Royal Ascot - Coral's 80/1 looks big;
Rainforest Magic Dermot Weld's runner is a potential blot on the handicap - respected;
Braveheart Move Yet to win beyond 13f;
Gifted Leader Laid out for this? 50/1 available;
Palomar Not without talent but for me is one that needs things to fall just right;
Right Stuff Finished last behind Gifted Leader last time out;
Beyond Trainer David Pipe's best chance in the race;
Abergavenny Billy Wallace (The Prophet) makes a case for this one in the Weekender;
Bow To No One Mare finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes behind Hollins;
Tasheba Beaten over 25 lengths in a Fontwell handicap seven days ago.

General opinion is higher drawn horses are at something of a disadvantage as they will have to race wide around the bend. That being the case Beyond (stall 3) makes most appeal of the market leaders (14/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing). For those who must, two outsiders at an each-way price - Gifted Leader (50/1) and Phoenix Flight (80/1).

These days Chepstow's card doesn't get the coverage it once did but the clash between Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti should prove informative. I don't make a habit of betting novices on their first try over the larger obstacles but I prefer Silviniaco Conti, given he's won at the track previously. In the Weekender West Country correspondent Andrew King reports Nicholls' charge '...has been pleasing in his work at Manor Farm...' Others I fancied on this card have been marked up at rather short prices so I'll keep my powder dry. The going is reported as good to soft, good in places at the Welsh track.

Up at Hexham Chris Bealby's L'Eldorado looks a play against likely favourite Quite The Man in a competitive opener; Chris has a good word for the gelding in a post on his blog this evening.

Brief notes for Haydock & Hexham

Twenty three are declared for tomorrow's Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock - the tapes go up at 3.40. Last year's winner Eradicate heads the field but stablemates Rebel Now (half-brother to Binocular) and Higgys Ragazzo (carrying enough weight for a four-year-old) are likely to be of more interest this time if we believe the layers have priced the event correctly. Five and six-year-olds have won nine of the last ten renewals while the winner has come from the first three in the market on six occasions in the same timeframe. The one that catches my eye is Hunterview. Ante-post favourite for the Sandown Imperial Cup, David Pipe's charge was unfortunate to miss the cut for that race but then ran well for a long way in the County Hurdle at the Festival before putting in a slightly below par effort in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Hunterview tends to race prominently which should serve him well on this sharp track; the handicapper has dropped the gelding four pounds for his last effort so I'm hoping he can be competitive here. At 16/1 the selection holds a reasonable each-way chance - Sky Bet bet a quarter the odds five places.

Othermix is likely to go off favourite for the two and a half mile novice chase but faces no easy task conceding six pounds to three opponents who are not lightly dimissed. Nafaath has clear potential while Paul Nicholls' Red Harbour would represent a play against the jolly if rain were to arrive to ease the going.

Donald McCain may have won the Chester Cup with Overturn on Wednesday but at the other end of the scale he has been a staunch supporter of Hexham down the years. The handler, boasting a 25% strike rate over jumps in the past fortnight, sends four on the long trip north from his Cholmondeley base tomorrow. Omokoroa is the one to beat in the 4.25 but perhaps the most interesting is The Weatherman who makes his debut in the concluding bumper.

Quick comments

With Royal Ascot just around the corner, a few quick comments on a weekend when I intend to keep my powder dry for next week's big meeting.

Workforce was impressive taking the Derby seven lengths in a course record time. To my eyes the winner looked to have a hard enough race and afterwards Ryan Moore said he could have given his mount an easier time and still won. Connections reported the colt had only lost nine pounds in weight since Saturday which would appear to show he's taken this tough race remarkably well. I'd guess the Irish Derby may come a bit too soon and the King George would be the next target.

The crowds flocked to Epsom on a fabulous summer's day but both the bookmakers and the broadcasters told a different tale with the former reporting turnover down by up to 20% and the latter's viewing audience down by 33%. Coral has called for a debate to be started on moving the race to a Friday.

On the first day of the 2010 World Cup, the big racing story is that Denman owner Harry Findlay has been warned off for a period of six months after he was found guilty of laying Gullible Gordon, a horse he owns. Findlay has vowed to fight the ban but has said 'Win or lose the appeal, I will never own horses in Britain again.' Betfair, the exchange service Findlay used, said 'We do not believe the punishment to be proportionate or, for that matter, consistent with similar offences in the past.' Andy Roberts of Sky Sports asks the question 'Racing shoots itself in the foot again or a triumph for rule sticklers?' Looks like both to me.

To conclude, a couple of notes on Saturday's Hexham card. Donald McCain's Dorabelle missed a reasonable looking opportunity in the bumper at Market Rasen earlier today and goes instead for the opening mares' novices hurdle. Both her runs to date have been on decent ground so it remains to be seen how she'll handle the easier conditions here. McCain's runners are always worth a second look at Hexham - in addition the stable has a 20% win strike rate in the past fortnight. Connections must think she has a chance as it's a fair way up from Cheshire to Northumberland. One who has spent even more time in the horsebox is Red Jester. Trainer G A Ham has sent the nine year old gelding all the way from Axminster in Devon; he runs in the Lords Taverners Handicap Chase at 3.05 and is Liam Heard's sole ride at the meeting. The last time the bay ran here (May 2009) he finished a well-beaten seventh of twelve - this appears slightly less competitive. The likely favourite Stagecoach Pearl is from Sue Smith's yard which is out of sorts at the moment.

The intray

This weekend I couldn't help but spare a thought for Eddie Ahern. After finishing second on the appropriately named Times Up in the 2.00 race at Newmarket on Friday, Eddie left the weighing room and went for a bit of a walkabout. When he returned, he found he'd missed the deadline to weigh out on his next intended mount, Charlie Farnsbarns in the 3.10. Able deputy Ryan Moore guided the 50/1 outsider to a one and half length victory over 5/2 favourite Bankable. Poor old Eddie! Instead of collecting his share of the £36,000 win prize money, he was served with a £140 fine. Still, things looked a little better on Saturday afternoon when he took the mount on another 50/1 shot, Caracciola. Caracciola won the Cesarewitch by three lengths.

Snap Tie turned over champion hurdler Katchit at Kempton on Sunday. After the race Katchit's trainer Alan King said he was disappointed (with the result) but satisfied (with the performance).

Sticking with Alan King, in a recent stable tour feature he indicated there are plans to race Franchoek over further (than two miles) in the coming season. The trainer feels the horse could make up into a World Hurdle contender.

Tomorrow Exeter hosts the inaugral running of the Best Mate Beginners' Chase at 3.10. The race has attracted some interesting entries including Straw Bear, Pasco, Or Bleu and Sir Harry Ormesher. I had planned to go to Ludlow on Thursday as I haven't been there for a few years but unfortunately something has turned up and I can't make it - the bookmakers will have to get their dinner money from somebody else. A course I've never visited is Hexham but a few friends made it up there a week last Saturday. They didn't leave the course 'with a carrier bag of bookies' loot', but they felt the course was small, friendly with good viewing, although there were no large screens in place. The course is situated on a hill - the weather was sunny but the wind chilling. Entrance into the parade ring and the stables was included in the £10 admission price. I think I'll try and make the effort to get up there sometime in the foreseeable future.

Finally, I have been reminded that it was Robbie Box (not Fox) that featured in the BBC series 'Big Deal'. Should you wish, you can buy the complete Series 1 from Amazon for just £17.98. Hmmm... think I'll give that one a miss.

Tea at Hexham?

Ice Tea meets Charlie Egerton's The Entomologist for the second time in three weeks at Hexham this afternoon. The latter won last time over two and a half miles. We know Ice Tea will get today's stiff three mile one furlong trip while this is the first time the Egerton horse has run over this distance. The Racing Post prefers the Egerton runner but in my book Ice Tea has a decent chance, especially in receipt of 4 lbs. The tissue shows had Ice Tea 3/1 which looked good value, but, at the time of writing, 2/1 is the general price and no longer makes that much appeal. Ice Tea needs to jump better than last time; on balance, I'll sit this one out.

Incidentally, I logged on to the Racing Post site last night at around 9.30pm to check this race and a couple of others, only to find no notes on any of the runners and no tissue shows. The site had been updated this morning - an indication of things to come under the new ownership?