The 2025 Welsh Grand National

A vintage renewal of the King George at Kempton earlier today, with The Jukebox Man (7/1), owned by Harry Redknapp, beating Banbridge (16/1) and Gaelic Warrior (9/4jf) a nose and a nose, and Jango Baie (9/4jf) half a length away in fourth.  

19 runners declared for tomorrow's Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow) run over three miles six and a half furlongs; the going on the chase course is currently described as good to soft and the drying ground won't suit a few in this field.

Sent off 6/1 favourite for last year's renewal, Jubilee Express finished second, one and a half lengths behind Val Dancer, with stablemate Iwilldoit third and fourth horse Monbeg Genius a further ten lengths in arrears.

Sam Thomas' charge raced off 126 that day, Dylan Johnson claiming three. He races off 130 tomorrow, having beaten Collectors Item two and a half lengths here in the Trial over three miles three weeks ago (Pats Fancy over 50 lengths behind in sixth). That represented a commendable effort by the runner-up on seasonal debut; pilot Kevin Brogan dropped his whip just after two out and meets the winner four pounds better off.

Git Maker, second behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin in the 2024 Kim Muir, finished third in the Scottish Grand National the following month. The gelding likes soft ground; this looks to have been the target after a prep race over the Lingfield hurdles six and a half weeks ago to blow away the cobwebs.   

Unbeaten in three starts last season Mr Vango returned as good as ever three weeks ago, pipped a short head by Twig in the Becher at Aintree (Monbeg Genius pulled up) conceding a stone to the winner. The handicapper has raised him another three pounds for that effort and he now races off a mark 20 pounds higher than when beating Collectors Item one and a half lengths in the 2024 London National at Sandown. 

Rock My Way, fifth in the Scottish Grand National in April, went into several notebooks when jumping like a stag and shooting clear from two out to win the Berkshire National at Ascot 11 lengths. After the race handler Joe Tizzard said:

"He's always been consistent but he's never done anything like that. It was a beautiful performance to watch and he actually put himself in the Grand National picture after that."  

Drying ground will not be a concern.

Haiti Couleurs won the National Hunt Challenge Cup at Cheltenham in March and followed that up by winning the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse the following month. Rebecca Curtis' charge was awash with sweat in the preliminaries that day and, once again, on his first try in Graded company, he was on edge before the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month where, caught on the back foot at the start, he failed to establish a rhythm and never jumped with much fluency, eventually being pulled up before four out.

Subsequently the trainer said:

"He came back from Haydock quite sore on his sacroiliac joint which we had medicated the Monday after, it seems to have really helped." 

He has form on better ground - in receipt of seven pounds, he beat Uncle Bert 15 lengths at Aintree just over a year ago. Now in receipt of 18 pounds, that opponent is certainly weighted to reverse the form but his ability to see out the trip has to be taken on trust. 

Keep an eye on Haiti Couleurs in the preliminaries. 

O'Connell, best on soft, won this year's London National at Sandown (Hung Jury second, Tanganyika a disappointment and pulled up before The Pond Fence); Gavin Sheehan's move up the inside rail approaching two out proved decisive. Danny McMenamin, in fine form lately, takes over tomorrow but I'm not certain this track, which can favour those that race prominently, will suit O'Connell who is often played late for a turn of foot.

Intense Raffles, winner of the 2024 Irish Grand National,  faces a stiff task off top weight. He ran well for a long way in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time but usually appreciates plenty of cut underfoot.

Collectors Item has some respectable efforts to his name including second in the 2024 London National behind Mr Vango - meets that rival 12 pounds better off - and beating Katate Dori in the Somerset National at Wincanton in January. He's three pounds 'well in' after that latest run behind Jubilee Express and won a novice hurdle at the track in 2022.

I thought Dom Of Mary a tad lucky to win at Newcastle last time. That day Ned Fox sent 2/1 favourite Zertakt into a clear lead between the final two flights but the gelding slowed markedly approaching the last, losing all momentum and allowing James Owen's charge to scoot away and win two and a quarter lengths. Dom Of Mary is one pound out of the handicap.

Incidentally Zertakt made amends at Cheltenham two weeks ago - handler Venetia Williams has the National Hunt Chase at the Festival in March as his target.

Nassalam won the 2023 renewal of this race 34 lengths on heavy ground off 145 - only five of the 19 to go to post completed. The handicapper duly clobbered Gary & Josh Moore's charge; back now to a mark of 145, he has been pulled up in five of his six starts since and underwent wind surgery last month.

Deafening Silence stayed on well enough when second behind Konfusion in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time (Konfusion won the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby earlier today) but was some 15 lengths behind the winner. Trainer Dan Skelton is on record saying that the gelding wants soft ground and a gap between his races; this will be the first chase with more than eight runners he has contested.

Uncle Bert blew away his field over two and a half miles at Aintree earlier this month, recording his first chase win in four starts. Now rated 140, he's four pounds 'well in' here and in January won a Haydock hurdle over an extended three miles. He's a tough cookie and weighted to reverse placings with Haiti Couleurs on Aintree form from last year but he's not guaranteed to see out the marathon trip. 

Livin On Luco made all and stayed on dourly to hold Neo King a neck in the Southern National at Fontwell six weeks ago; last December he finished sixth at Cheltenham, some 69 lengths behind Haiti Couleurs. Another one racing from one pound out of the handicap.

Tanganyika failed to build on a promising seasonal return at Sandown last time while Hung Jury, one of two veterans in the field, had no answer to O'Connell's turn of foot when second in that same race; Hung Jury is another to race from out of the handicap. 

Back in 2023 Monbeg Genius won a couple of novice chases at this track. Fourth in last year's renewal off 144, he's two pounds better off here - a bad mistake four out put paid to any chance he might have held in the Becher on seasonal debut.

Where It All Began finished fourth in the 2024 Kim Muir, eighth behind Intense Raffles in the 2024 Irish Grand National but has shown no worthwhile form since, while Beaufort Scale - six pounds out of the handicap - remains a maiden over fences and is a reserve for tomorrow's Paddy Power Chase (3.00 Leopardstown).

Pat's Fancy, the other veteran, races from a mark nine pounds out of the handicap.

Of the principals, Rock My Way and Haiti Couleurs should not be inconvenienced by drying ground.

The vote goes to Collectors Item, with the O'Neill yard now in better form; I'm hoping he can build on that effort behind Jubilee Express last time.

Collectors Item is the each-way suggestion, 10/1 generally at the time of writing, with most layers paying five places. 

Hoping to come on for the run...

Where to start? Well, spiders started coming into the house in the middle of August this year - that looks early in my book.

England manager Thomas Tuchel had a bit of a dig at the fans for their lack of support following last night's comfortable victory over Wales in a friendly at Wembley. 

Previously, after England's 2-0 victory over Andorra at the beginning of September, Martin Samuel wrote in The Times that 'Thomas Tuchel is selecting on form that is seven years out of date'. That line struck me like a bolt out of the blue: for years I've been doing something very similar - and I immediately experienced something of a personal epiphany.

After such a startling shock, I dashed straight under the stairs - a damp, dingy, festering space that I've used as a refuge in times of distress ever since the shed started to leak - and began to make the sort of technical adjustments to the selection processes that, in the long run, are unlikely to make any material difference whatsoever; readers hoping to see an improvement in the performance of the blog's highlighted runners should bear in mind the age old adage: old habits die hard.

Here's a salient case in point from Worcester's Fixed Brush Series Final card at the end of September.

Things had started off well enough on the day: minimal travel expenses incurred thanks to the Older Person's bus pass - used on the railway; concessionary course admission for £18.50; and then a kindly gent in the queue offered me a token for a free racecard. 

It went quickly downhill thereafter.

In the feature I preferred Knights Affair to Don Virginia, having watched a replay of their meeting over an extended trip at Stratford several times the night before. Don Virginia blew away what looked on paper a competitive field to win 17 lengths, with Knights Affair a further 20 lengths adrift in seventh.

Then Sir Hobnob took the biscuit by running green in the two and a half mile maiden hurdle.

After the Fixed Brush Hurdle Final, winning jockey Richie McLernon said:

"I was second on him at Hereford and thought he was a bit questionable then, but they held off for this and, fair play, it's paid off. They've [first-time cheekpieces] made a massive difference."

Paul Nicholls was slightly more helpful when he told Racing Post readers he doesn't have the ammo for a tilt at this year's trainers' title - he thinks Dan Skelton a bit of a shoo-in - but Martin Pipe's record of 3,930 winners is certainly within range.

Plenty thought Skelton a bit of a shoo-in last season but they hadn't counted on the the late run of Mr W.P.Mullins - for a second consecutive year. The Irish maestro clearly has his eye on the hat-trick with early season targets already pencilled in for Il Etait Temps (Tingle Creek); Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior (King George); and Anzadam (Fighting Fifth).

Mr David Maxwell hung up his riding boots over the summer - the David Maxwell dispersal sale takes place after racing at Cheltenham on Friday October 24th. 

The man himself told punters to 'lump on' Queensbury Boy in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow but earlier this afternoon the gelding could only finish fourth behind Sticktotheplan who, in a first-time hood, successfully conceded weight to all his rivals. Mr Maxwell's thoughts on one or two other key horses in the sale are here. 

Cheers for Chepstow's inaugural three-day Welsh Racing Festival which sees the Welsh Champion Hurdle (3.17 Sunday) return to the track for the first time since 2002. Earlier today the going on the hurdle track was changed from good to soft to good after the first race and on the chase track from good to good to firm, good in places after the third race.

On Monday, on his first ride since suffering spinal and neck injuries at Plumpton on Easter Monday, Nico De Boinville made all aboard The Expensive One to win the novices' handicap hurdle at Stratford. After that race the jockey said he was likely to 'come on for the run' and the same comment can be applied to the author of what follows.

Two chasers on the radar tomorrow:

Deep Cave makes his debut over British fences (2.45 Chepstow). 

After winning the opening handicap hurdle at Aintree on Grand National day, trainer Christian Williams said of Deep Cave:

"It's probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he'd be better on nice ground and he's going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he's not a novice, but hopefully he'll be a Saturday horse."

King Of Answers makes his chase debut (3.45 Hexham).

Back in May 2023 King Of Answers was beaten under two lengths by Wendigo in an Irish maiden point. Wendigo subsequently finished second behind The New Lion in the Challow at Newbury before finishing fifth in the Albert Bartlett behind Jasmin De Vaux. 

Finally, I realise I'm wandering off-piste but jumps trainers have a decent recent record in the Cesarewitch (3.40 Newmarket) - they have collected the spoils in nine of the past 12 renewals - and Ndaawi catches my eye. 

Gordon Elliott's charge, sent off a 7/1 chance for last year's renewal (Jamie Spencer up), finished stone cold last on soft ground, beaten 134 lengths off a mark of 92. After that race the trainer's representative reported the gelding did not stay the trip of 2m 2f on this occasion. 

Next time out, back over the sticks, he finished second to Kargese in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham (run over 2m 1f on the stiffer New Course on good to soft) and was then awarded the Galway Hurdle (2m, good) in the stewards' room at the beginning of August.

He lost two places when coming under pressure in the closing stages on the Flat at Chester last month (2m, good to soft, Cieren Fallon up) and connections have opted to fit first-time cheekpieces tomorrow. Cieren Fallon keeps the ride while Jamie Spencer is aboard stablemate Mordor.

His seventh in the 2024 Ascot Stakes (2m 4f good to firm) suggests this trip is within his compass on quick ground; a hurdle mark of 154 indicates there could be some leeway off a Flat mark of 89.

Ndaawi is a tentative each-way suggestion, 20/1 with Coral and William Hill at the time of writing, both paying five places.

The 2024 Welsh Grand National

Season's greetings. 

Sixteen are set to face the starter for this year's renewal of the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow); the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.

Market leader Monbeg Genius has three chase wins to his name - and two of those have come at Chepstow. 

He was beaten 12 lengths by the mare Fontaine Collonges at Haydock three weeks ago and meets that rival five pounds better off, allowing for the three pound claim Ned Fox makes on Venetia Williams' charge.

His third behind Corach Rambler off 140 in the 2023 Ultima reads very well but a mark of 144 here looks stiff. 

Stable jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr rides stablemate Iron Bridge who will be expected to come on for his seasonal debut when third behind Val Dancer at Carlisle (Your Own Story pulled up); the yard recorded a quick-fire double with Red Dirt Road and Fortunate Man at Aintree earlier today. 

Iron Bridge finished a remote second off 142 behind Nassalam last year so looks feasibly treated on 136; Mel Rowley's charge has been raised five pounds for that Carlisle victory.  

It's worth noting that in the past 20 years only five winners have managed to carry more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03, 2006); Synchronised (11-06, 2010); Native River (11-12, 2016); Elegant Escape (11-08, 2018); and Nassalam (11-03, 2023).

The mare Galia Des Liteaux was beaten threequarters of a length in the Classic Chase at Warwick last year before finishing eighth in the Aintree Grand National; trainer Dan Skelton indicated in a pre-season briefing that this race has been the target.

Sam Thomas saddles two, both making their seasonal debut - 2021 winner Iwilldoit and the seven-year-old Jubilee Express. The latter is much shorter in the market but has just four chase starts to his name.

Gordon Elliott saddles Where It All Began and Stuzzikini.

The former won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown last February before finishing fourth in the Kim Muir and then eighth in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse where he didn't jump particularly well. 

The market suggests this one, wearing first-time blinkers, is the pick of the pair.

After pulling up behind Bangers And Cash in a handicap chase at Exeter in November 2022, The Newest One was campaigned solely over hurdles until winning an amateur riders' chase at Cheltenham in October (Amateur and Atlanta Brave both pulled up). 

His fifth behind Grand Sefton winner King Turgeon at Cheltenham last time looks respectable and Twiston-Davies' charge won a novice hurdle by 19 lengths at this track last December. 

Evies Vladimir wouldn't be the safest of conveyances while Classic Concorde has a high hurdle rating but hasn't run in a chase since June 2023. 

Campaigned mostly on right-handed tracks, No Hubs No Hoobs won the Devon Stayers Handicap Chase at Exeter in April and finished 22 lengths behind Remastered on seasonal debut at Wincanton nine weeks ago. 

I tipped Amateur each-way at 66/1 for this last year; racing from the front and jumping slightly right, he went well for a long way but had nothing more to give and was pulled up before the first in the home straight. He has been pulled up on all three starts this season. 

Two each-way chances are on the radar.

Currently a 12/1 shot, Val Dancer has been backed in the run up to the race. After the win at Carlisle last time, trainer Mel Rowley said:

"Val Dancer did quite well last season and has really strengthened up and grown over the summer. He really wants cut in the ground and he could be a type for races like the Midlands Grand National."

Atlanta Brave's threequarters of a length second to Surrey Quest off a mark of 121 in the Mandarin Handicap Chase last December reads well (winner was subsequently beaten a nose by Macdermott in the Scottish Grand National). 

Kerry Lee's charge has yet to win a race over the larger obstacles but was highlighted by Keith Melrose, Racing Post betting editor, as a horse to follow this season (The Big Jump Off, Racing Post Monday 21st October).

Just four days later the gelding was pulled up three out at Cheltenham; next time he was fourth of five, beaten five lengths by Roccovango at Uttoxeter.

The yard was slow into its stride this term but has recorded two wins from nine runs in the past fortnight (22% win strike-rate).

There's a hint this may be a year too soon but the fact Kerry Lee's inmate won a maiden hurdle at this track in January 2023 is a positive and I note connections have opted to fit cheekpieces for the first time.

Generally a 14/1 shot, Ladbrokes and Coral stand out offering 18/1 at the time of writing. 

Atlanta Brave is the each-way suggestion, with both Ladbrokes and Coral paying five places.  

Winter warmers on the way

I'm Ravenous showed his appetite for the jumps game by pipping Isle Of Sark a head in a maiden hurdle at Sedgefield last week; after the race winning trainer Ben Pauling said: 'The season is hotting up...' 

It most certainly is, although not perhaps to a temperature of 400C, as the BBC weather app recently forecast for the city of Nottingham. 

The Racing Post has highlighted Dan Skelton's red-hot start to the new campaign. 

With over £440,000 in prize money banked at the end of last month, Skelton, pipped for the trainers' title by Willie Mullins last year, is more than £250,000 ahead this term.

Chepstow's two day meeting this weekend traditionally marks a change of pace in proceedings.

The mare Flying Fortune won the Persian War Hurdle with something to spare today, having won the Fixed Brush Final at Worcester a fortnight ago. 

Stablemate Letterston Lily, third behind Flying Fortune at Worcester, goes in tomorrow's Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 4-Y-O Hurdle (2.10) . Enthusiasm is tempered by the fact regular pilot Sean Bowen is booked to ride Roaring Legend.   

In the Silver Trophy (3.20) only two from a field of eighteen have seen a racecourse in the past eight weeks - Tritonic and Forever William. 

Twinjets currently heads the market for the Native River Handicap Chase (4.35); with just three chase starts to his name, Paul Nicholls' charge meets more experienced rivals and, to date, hasn't convinced over the larger obstacles.

I like Arizona Cardinal who finished off last season winning the Topham at Aintree but he races off a career high mark of 142 and 8/1 doesn't make much appeal.

Nassalam won last year's Welsh National at this track by an astonishing 34 lengths off 145. He was duly hammered by the handicapper and is set to carry top weight.       

Team Twiston-Davies, habitually amongst the front runners around this time of year, have made quite some start this term, recording eight wins from 25 runners (32%) in the past fortnight. 

Sam will probably feel Scottie's Sister was one that got away at Ludlow on Wednesday, the jockey dropping his whip after the last and finishing half a length second to the Alan King trained One Glance.

With my annual trip to the Shropshire track coming up I carried out some preliminary spadework on the card for that first Ludlow meet of the new term. 

Rickety Bridge and Mostly Sunny dominated the market in the Remembering Margaret Roberts Novices' Hurdle (3.05) while Highly Recommended had been noted as an 'eyecatcher', making modest late headway in a Worcester race three weeks earlier. 

Mel Rowley's charge was priced 40/1 on Tuesday evening but, quite reasonably, I reasoned it was highly unlikely both market principals would underperform in a race of this nature so didn't place a wager of any kind.

In the event 4/7 favourite Rickety Bridge jumped poorly throughout and was beaten a long way out while 7/4 chance Mostly Sunny appeared to slip on the home turn allowing Highly Recommended (22/1) to saunter home 17 lengths clear.

To quote Ben Pauling: 'The season is hotting up...' 

The 2023 Welsh Grand National

Festive greetings.

I found a copy of  'This Sporting Life - Gerry Cranham, Photographer' beneath our Christmas tree yesterday and was immediately transported back to those halcyon days of childhood; the result is I haven't spent much time on tomorrow's Welsh National form (2.50 Chepstow).

Twenty are set to face the starter with the bottom eight running from out of the handicap; the going is currently described as good to soft but strong winds and heavy rain are predicted throughout the day.

Fresh from victory in a dramatic renewal of the King George earlier this afternoon, Gavin Sheehan is aboard market leader Super Survivor. 

Jamie Snowden's charge carries a nice racing weight but has just four chase starts to his name. He was no match for stable companion Git Maker at Lingfield last time and prior to that finished behind Autonomous Cloud and Iron Bridge in a novice chase at Uttoxeter in March. 

Nassalam beat Wayfinder over an extended two miles seven furlongs in the trial race at the track 18 days ago. 

Top weight Iwilldoit did it in 2021 and bids to repeat the trick off a mark 13 pounds higher; Dylan Johnston claims seven. 

Since 1997 only four horses have carried more than 11-00 to victory: Halcon Genelardais (11-03 in 2006); Synchronised (11-06 in 2010); Native River (11-12 in 2016); and Elegant Escape (11-08 in 2018).

The Big Breakaway was second in this race last year (Truckers Lodge fourth, The Galloping Bear a faller and Wayfinder pulled up) but Joe Tizzard's charge has failed to complete in three of his four subsequent starts; last time he was pulled up behind Chambard in the Becher.

Only The Bold will relish testing ground but it's difficult to glean much hope from his two runs over hurdles last month.

Truckers Lodge, winner of the London National at Sandown 18 days ago, has placed in three of the past four renewals of this race. 

Course winner Amateur finished third behind Truckers Lodge in the West Wales National at Ffos Las in April, beaten just over four lengths in receipt of three pounds on soft ground.

Tomorrow he receives a stone from that rival, although Freddie Gingell reduces that differential by five pounds.

The profile of John Flint's chaser has an inconsistent look to it and, ideally, he may prefer better ground but at 66/1 with Paddy Power I'm going to take the chance and have a small each-way interest.

Amateur is the each-way selection, 66/1 with Paddy Power paying six places.

Frankie, Lucinda, Caroline, Michael - and the longest impending retirement I've ever known

Many years ago, at a time when I had to work for a living, one of my workplace managers - I occupied a humble, lowly position within a vast organisational hierarchy - announced, with some degree of relish, his impending retirement, having recently celebrated his 50th birthday.

You may have encountered a similar type.

At subsequent fortnightly catch-up meetings he'd invariably reference at some point his previous 'announcement' with the result that, within the matter of a few short weeks, we'd all grown fed up to the back teeth hearing about 'the retirement'.

The individual concerned eventually took the plunge at the age of 59 and, to this day, it remains the longest impending retirement I've ever had the misfortune to bear witness to.

However it would appear Lanfranco Dettori seems intent on giving my colleague a bit of a run for his money.

Having spent this, his 'final' season, telling anyone and everyone that he's about to hang up his riding boots after Qipco Champions Day at Ascot, Frankie has suddenly changed his mind and is now off to ride full-time in the States.

"I could be there three months or three years, I don't know," he said.

Well, bless my old boots.

Over the summer months Michael Scudamore has moved his operation north of the border to join forces with Lucinda Russell (and partner Peter Scudamore) while his brother Tom has taken over the reins at the Herefordshire base he vacated which will be used as a pre-training / satellite yard. 

The Russell-trained Lebowski ran without the declared tongue-tie in the Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Seniors' Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow earlier this afternoon. Sent off the 2/1 favourite, the bay raced from the front but was headed three out and weakened to eventually finish fifth.

Professor Tisdall is on record saying she wants to win two races above all others - the Grand National and the Cesarewitch.

Wordsworth carries her colours in the latter race tomorrow but wasn't quite poetry in motion when winning the first division of a Bangor maiden hurdle on his first run for David Pipe 10 days ago - Act Of Authority won the second division in a faster time.

Pied Piper, rated 157 over hurdles yet 96 on the Flat, heads the betting for the Ces but I'm going to take a small each-way interest in an old friend / adversary, Zoffee. 

This one finished fourth off the same mark in last year's renewal and looks to have had a similar prep - at the time of writing he's 20/1 with Sky who are paying eight places.

To finish, I note that Lucinda popped up on Desert Island Discs last month and included Wandrin' Star (Lee Marvin) in her list of eight tracks. 

Hmmm... Put me in mind of the time when I thought Walk In The Park would win the 2019 Becher Chase but I backed Wandrin Star (David Bass) instead. 

I don't need to tell you what happened.

The 2022 Coral Welsh Grand National

Nineteen have been declared for tomorrow's Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow) with the ground currently described as good to soft, good in places.

Heavy rain is forecast but at the time of writing it's questionable how much will fall before off time. 

Connections of leading fancy The Galloping Bear have indicated they won't run if the rain doesn't materialise - and I note a number of confirmed mudlarks are towards the top of the market.

The top weights in the past three years were rated 160 (Elegant Escape); 159 (Yala Enki); and 166 (Native River). 

The Big Dog, trained by Peter Fahey in Ireland, heads the weights tomorrow with a rating of 153.

Owners Damien and Colin Kelly had this race as a target last year but The Big Dog made a bad mistake at the ninth fence - jockey Jonathan Burke lost an iron - and the gelding was quickly pulled up; they try again tomorrow off a mark six pounds higher. 

Four weeks ago The Big Dog won the Troytown Handicap Chase at Navan (Regina Dracones fell at the second) worth 59,000 euros. The majority of his races have been on soft or heavy ground.

The mare Quick Wave heads the market this evening; she finished 28 lengths behind Fortescue at Sandown in March but subsequent wind surgery certainly looks to have helped Venetia Williams' charge who dotted up in the London National and is only four pounds higher here.

Her stablemate Farinet won the track's Welsh Grand National Trail three and a half weeks ago but hasn't been declared; at present he holds an entry for a handicap chase at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. 

Ask Me Early likes cut in the ground but unfortunately didn't make the cut for last year's race. His third behind Le Milos at Bangor on seasonal debut reads well given the winner won the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next time out. 

Course winner The Big Breakaway was only just beaten by Fontaine Colonges at Haydock on seasonal debut (Musical Slave fifth, Truckers Lodge ninth). He ran a strange race that day with a couple of slow leaps in the early stages before making ground up the home straight.

Musical Slave certainly won't be inconvenienced if the rain stays away and his second behind Hewick in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April reads well. 

He lost two places in the closing stages behind Fontaine Collonges last time; he hasn't looked entirely trustworthy in the past but the fitting of cheekpieces has certainly brought about improvement.

Truckers Lodge was second in this race in 2019 behind Potters Corner and third last year in first-time blinkers off a mark of 150.  

He has to be of interest off 141 and Freddie Gingell can claim seven in a race run in memory of his mother. I note the blinkers are back on; in the past Truckers has shown his very best form on soft / heavy ground.

Fantastikas looked to have a hard race up front in the Becher Chase last time (Fortescue fourth) but Movethechains looks relatively unexposed and could be anything. That said, the Weekender informs me: 'No winner in more than three decades was making its seasonal reappearance'.

Rebecca Curtis saddles two course winners - Pats Fancy and Wayfinder - and both were disappointing last time.

The former was tailed off in a handicap hurdle and the latter pulled up behind Farinet in the trial race referenced above - Time To Get Up was another pulled up in that same trial race.

Wouldubewell isn't the biggest of mares. She appeared to tire four out when sent off 4/1 favourite for a race at Haydock  last month; Ben Jones rode that day and he's aboard The Galloping Bear tomorrow.

The Two Amigos has run well in this race in the past and ideally wants more cut underfoot while Cyclop has a few miles on the clock but has been in good form this term finishing third in both the Southern National at Fontwell and the Scottish Borders National at  Kelso in the past six weeks.

The booking of Harry Cobden for the Irish-trained mare Regina Dracones catches the eye. She looks feasibly handicapped off 128 but appeared to just run out of petrol behind Punitive over three miles five at Fairyhouse last time.     

Gats and Co and D'Jango both race from out of the handicap.

As I highlighted in my last post, I think the Henry Daly trained Fortescue has had this as a target. 

His third behind Royal Pagaille in the Peter Marsh at Haydock at the beginning of the year reads well and although he looks quite high in the weights now pilot Hugh Nugent, whose grandfather owned and bred the horse, can claim three.

He finished second on his only run at the track in a novice chase three years ago and, admittedly in receipt of weight, has twice beaten favourite Quick Wave - at Exeter (March 2020) and Sandown (March 2021).

Fortescue looked a tad taken off his feet in rear in the early stages of the Becher last time before staying on to claim fourth - I'm hoping the fitting of first-time cheekpieces will help him hold a better pitch in this race.

Fortescue is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 with Sky Bet who are paying one fifth the odds seven places. 

Christmas capers...

This year the Christmas cranberry sauce has been made using four tablespoonsful of 2015 late bottled vintage port - Graham's, of course - and now, well, I'm obliged to polish off the rest. 

That's no particular hardship, you understand, as I do enjoy the odd snifter at this time of year but, on sober reflection, I should point out it does very little to help with those tricky Christmas wagers.

Rain has certainly arrived - the local parade of shops resembled a scene from Blade Runner earlier today - and apparently 18mm of the wet stuff fell at Kempton where the going for the King George meeting is now described as soft.

Three of the four races to be televised from the track have just five declared and the King George nine.

From a betting perspective the small fields don't generate much interest although 16/1 about Royal Pagaille in the main event might look fair value should the going deteriorate further.

I've started work on the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow, Tuesday). 

The trends seem to point to a horse aged between six and eight years of age that has previous form at the track and is burdened with a light(ish) weight. 

Ask Me Early fits the bill but in terms of quality this year's race would struggle to compete with the majority of renewals over the past ten years. 

At the moment I'm considering Fortescue at a bigger price (20/1) as I believe connections have had this as a target. 

After a pipe opener in a Bangor novice hurdle in November, Henry Daly's charge raced in rear in the Becher Chase at Aintree three weeks ago and looked one of the first beaten; however, he made eye-catching late headway from three out to eventually finish fourth, beaten ten lengths.

Granted, he has his share of weight (11-6) but, if confirmed, regular pilot Hugh Nugent can claim three, and form last season behind Five Star Getaway and Royal Pagaille reads well.

I'll try to post a preview of this race after racing on Boxing Day. 

In the meantime, I think it's time for another glass...

With very best wishes to all readers this Christmas time.

The 2021 Coral Welsh Grand National

Merry Christmas.

This past week I've spent more time with the lateral flow test kit than the form book; still, I like to take an interest in the Welsh Grand National (2.50 Chepstow).

Twenty are set to face the starter; the going is currently described as soft.

Native River carried top weight to victory in 2016 and bids to repeat the trick tomorrow. Colin Tizzard's charge has to give 10 pounds to stablemate and 2018 winner Elegant Escape and a minimum of 16 pounds to everything else; several in the field will run from out of the handicap. .

Secret Reprieve was backed as though defeat was out of the question for last year's renewal; carrying 10-01 Evan Williams' charge never gave supporters a moment's worry, coming home three lengths ahead of The Two Amigos with Captain Drake fourth, Truckers Lodge seventh and Ramses De Teillee twelfth.

Secret Reprieve hasn't seen a racecourse since. The trainer admits that isn't an ideal set of circumstances but this evening the horse is clear market leader.

In 2019 Potters Corner came home in front, beating Truckers Lodge one and threequarters lengths (Elegant Escape sixth); Christian Williams' charge ran a fine trial earlier this month, beaten a nose in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Truckers Lodge finished a distant fifth behind Iwilldoit in the Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at this track at the beginning of the month - the prep race Secret Reprieve won in 2020. Second horse home, Colorado Doc, was beaten 24 lengths. Sam Thomas' charge warrants every respect. 

Connections fit first-time blinkers on Truckers Lodge; on jockey bookings the stable's main chance appears to be Highland Hunter. 

Highland Hunter beat Deise Aba a nose in the London National at Sandown and here is weighted to confirm that form.

Midnight Thunder won last year's Edinburgh National at Musselburgh and followed up with victory in the Scottish Grand National at Ayr; on seasonal reappearance he was a well beaten fourth in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby.

Peter Fahey trains The Big Dog over in Ireland; this race has been a long-term target. Rated 132 over hurdles, the handicapper over here has allocated him a mark of 147.

This race also looks to have been the plan for Discordantly who sports a first-time tongue tie and fell in last February's Punchestown Grand National Trial won by The Big Dog.

On only his second start for current connections Hill Sixteen ran some race in the Becher three weeks ago, beaten a nose by Snow Leopardess with Achille fifth, Kimberlite Candy seventh and Mac Tottie falling. Previously Mac Tottie won the Grand Sefton at Aintree but he wouldn't be guaranteed to stay this trip.

Hold That Taught looks the pick of Venetia Williams' two runners and Maddy Playle has made the case for Eva's Oskar in the Weekender but in a very competitive race I think Hill Sixteen looks unexposed while Captain Drake is overpriced at 40/1. 

Stablemate Ask Me Early was ante-post favourite for this race before taking a heavy fall on the schooling grounds. In a recent stable tour, Harry Fry said of Captain Drake:

"It always takes him a run or two to get into the swing of things and the plan is to go for the Welsh National again, having finished fourth last season. The problem we face is he's 8lb lower than 12 months ago, so it'll be touch and go as to if he gets in at the weights. He's a proper mudlark and I feel he could run a big race if he gets in. I know he's not the easiest horse to catch right, but there's a big handicap in him."

He's eight pounds 'wrong' tomorrow but Lorcan Murtagh can claim three and connections have opted to try blinkers for the first time.

At the time of writing Paddy Power stand out offering 40/1 and pay six places.

Captain Drake is the each-way suggestion.

Chepstow chat - and an each-way chance

Chepstow's two day meeting is generally seen as the start of the 'core' jumps season and, for me, is usually the time form study begins again in earnest. 

That said, I followed the summer racing circuit more closely this year; I wouldn't be confident the bank account is going to see any particular benefit.

Earlier this afternoon the more experienced Camprond came home ahead of well-backed stablemate Luttrell Lad in the Persian War Novices' Hurdle. 

First Street (Nicky Henderson) and Paso Doble (Paul Nicholls) were easy enough to back beforehand and the market was proven correct with both runners disappointing, beaten 21 and 36 lengths respectively.

Knappers Hill obliged for the champion trainer in the opener but there were disappointments with Threeunderthrufive (10//11f), Hell Red (5/2f) and Mondora (15/2).

A ten-year-old had won four of the last five renewals of the Veterans' Handicap Chase (2.10) and two ten-year-olds, Some Chaos and Vivas, finished first and second this year. 

I was at Warwick when Vivas unseated his pilot a couple of weeks ago; known to go well fresh, he was quite well fancied that day in a race in which he had finished second behind Young Wolf the year before.

The form of that race has piqued interest in tomorrow's Native River Handicap Chase (2.25); 14 have been declared.

Although beaten twice by Francky Du Berlais, Exelerator Express has been impressive this summer; the handicapper has raised Neil Mulholland's charge nine pounds following his latest win at Worcester just over seven weeks ago. He may well have a crucial fitness edge over a number of tomorrow's rivals. 

Writing in the Weekender Maddy Playle has a word for Full Back but this looks a big ask for Garry Moore's novice - no six-year-old has won this in the past ten years.  

Of course, you could argue that stat would be a worry where Kitty's Light is concerned but the five-year-old was a revelation last year. 

The gelding finished third behind El Presente in the Badger Beers at Wincanton in the autumn before winning the Borders Handicap Chase at Kelso and then being 'promoted' to second behind Potterman in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown after being hampered by Enrilo on his run to the line. Several commentators felt that without the interference he would have won that race.

At a price, two from the Warwick race won by Haul Away are of interest.

Irish Prophecy was beaten under six lengths at Warwick and previously was still in with a shout in Exelerator Express' race at Worcester when making a bad mistake five from home, with jock Tom Bellamy losing an iron.

After Warwick the handicapper dropped Emma Lavelle's charge two pounds.

On 17 May 2019 Cobra De Mai won the Weatherite Handicap Chase at Cheltenham off a mark of 142.

In the 2020 renewal of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival the gelding finished less than nine lengths behind winner The Conditional off the same mark.

Last season Cobra lost his form; in February he was moved out of Dan Skelton's yard to join Caroline Bailey.

On his first run for new connections, he raced with enthusiasm for the first time since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, weakening to cede third place to Irish Prophecy on the run-in, eventually beaten under nine lengths.

The handicapper has dropped him a further four pounds for that effort; tomorrow he races off 128 and will appreciate the good ground.

At the time of writing Irish Prophecy is generally at 16/1 chance while Cobra De Mai is 18/1 with Paddy Power who pay four places one fifth the odds.

I tipped up Cobra De Mai for last season's Badger Beers (under the heading: 'What's this? A Cobra in the Badger Beers'). Off 138 that day he ran like a drain - and he may well do the same tomorrow - but I'm hoping he's going to build on the promise shown at Warwick 18 days ago and at least give me a run for my money...

Cobra De Mai is the each-way suggestion. 

The rescheduled 2020 Welsh Grand National

Precautionary 8.00am inspections have been called for all three of tomorrow's meetings - at Chepstow, Kempton and Wincanton.

The rescheduled Welsh Grand National (3.10) is the highlight at Chepstow with 18 set to face the starter. 

It's easy to see why the layers have Secret Reprieve clear favourite, although 7/2 about this comparatively inexperienced sort in a race of this nature looks extremely short. 

Writing in the Weekender [06-10.01.21] Evan Williams says:

"I've long thought of him as the ideal sort for a Welsh National and my aim this season was to get him in the race at as near to ten stone as possible. He won the Welsh National trial by an impressive 12 lengths at Chepstow last month...

"I was unsure when it was rescheduled to this weekend if the conditions would remain the same [keeping their old handicap marks] but thankfully they do as he does look to be particularly well in at the weights [runs off 134 but new mark is 142]. I think he has a huge chance of winning the big one..."

In my original preview I decided to take an each-way interest in Secret Reprieve's stablemate Prime Venture and I'm going to stick with that selection. A bit of a quirky individual, he finished fourth last year (Truckers Lodge second, Yala Enki third, The Three Amigos fifth) and turns up this time in better form having broken his duck over fences at Sedgefield in November; the trainer reports that victory has really helped boost the gelding's confidence.

The form of those behind in the trial run over two miles seven and a half furlongs on December 5th is of interest; The Two Amigos chased home Secret Reprieve with Bobo Mac third and Captain Drake fifth.

The Two Amigos likes to race prominently and in last year's renewal was still chasing winner Potters Corner two out before eventually finishing fifth; I just wonder whether connections might try to tweak the tactics a tad this time.

As I indicated in the original preview I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve and the additional 13 days since the trial will help his cause.

Captain Drake wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but makes some appeal (to me, anyway) of those at bigger prices. Quoting Harry Fry in his Straight from the Stable feature (Weekender 23-27.12.20):

"He was in and out over fences last season, winning at Exeter before finishing runner-up [behind Truckers Lodge] in the Midlands National, but he had a couple of unseats in between.

"I was delighted when he won first time out this season when I ran him back over over hurdles at Uttoxeter. He did not travel or jump well at Cheltenham next time but he ran better at Chepstow...

"Hopefully that will have done his confidence some good as there were definitely signs of improvement. I am still keen to go for the Welsh National as the trip and ground will be fine." 

Vieux Lion Rouge is also eight pounds well in after winning the Becher Chase last time but regular pilot Tom Scudamore prefers Ramses De Teillee who finished second to Elegant Escape in the 2018 renewal. 

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion, quoted at 12/1 with William Hill this evening who pay five places.

The closest I'm likely to get to Lanzarote in the next 18 months is the Lanzarote Hurdle (3.30 Kempton); if Chepstow were to fail its early morning inspection, I was considering taking a chance on the weather in Surrey. 

I thought The White Mouse had a small squeak in the race and I nearly fell into a trap. Some basic spadework confirmed a gnawing suspicion - I couldn't find a mare that had come home in front in over 30 years. Well cheesed off!

Welsh Grand National 2020

With Storm Bella forecast to bring strong winds and heavy showers to much of the country overnight, Chepstow's Welsh National card will do well to survive; the going is currently described as heavy and an inspection is scheduled to take place at 07.45 tomorrow morning.

The Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase is due off at 2.50 and this year is being run in memory of Kim Gingell, daughter of Colin Tizzard, who died in May after a short battle with cancer, aged 43.

The yard has clearly aimed Christmas In April at the race; should the meet go ahead and the horse come home in front, there won't be a dry eye in the house. 

Three weeks ago Secret Reprieve beat The Two Amigos 12 lengths in the Welsh National Trial (Bobo Mac third, Captain Drake fifth) run here over a trip of two miles seven and a half furlongs; the handicapper has since raised Evan Williams' charge four pounds. 

The layers seem to think that's a tad on the lenient side with the gelding generally priced up a 7/2 chance. Only four six-year-olds have won since the war: L'Aventure (2005); Halcon Genelardais (2006); Native River (2016); and Elegant Escape (2018).

For this I like something carrying less than 11-00 that has shown decent form at the track. Last year's selection The Two Amigos ran a fine race from the front but just seemed to run out of petrol after the last, eventually finishing fifth, six lengths behind Prime Venture in fourth.

Prime Venture looks to be Evan Williams' second string but the yard's horses are running well (36% strike rate over the past fortnight). Sent off the outsider of three on seasonal debut at Sedgefield, Prime Venture broke his duck, winning his first chase by 16 lengths; the handicapper has raised him five pounds.

I'd expect Bobo Mac to improve although I'm put off by a comment Tom Symonds made in the Weekender [16-20.12.20]: '...it could be something like the Eider would fit in better', the implication being the horse needed time between races. The handler also said: 'He's talented but he needs to be ridden like a ghost in the race.'

Springfield Fox has been well supported but doesn't look entirely straightforward while Dominateur didn't jump with any fluency behind Pym on his seasonal debut at Sandown. 

Vieux Lion Rouge blew away his opponents in the Becher Chase three weeks ago with stablemate Ramses De Teillee disappointing in seventh, beaten over 90 lengths. Ramses didn't jump well that day but his second in this race behind Elegant Escape in 2018 merits every respect.

Prime Venture is the each-way suggestion. Most layers paying five places quote 12/1 this evening; William Hill quote 11/1 and pay seven places. 

Searching for a silver lining in Chepstow's Silver Trophy (2020 renewal)

 'Anywhere nice on holiday this year, PG?'

'Just the usual - a fortnight down the bottom of our back garden.'

'Lovely.'

It's been that sort of year.

A recent article in The Railway Magazine pointed out the chances of contracting coronavirus on a one-hour train journey were 11,000/1. If you took the precaution of wearing a facemask for the duration of the journey, the chances were calculated at 22,000/1. With odds like that and a senior railcard to hand, I decided a treat was in order - a day trip to London to catch up with daughter and boyfriend.

A pleasant stroll around Battersea Park, spot of lunch in The Lighthouse and then further restoratives taken at The Sydney Arms, Chelsea, which, last time I checked, was run by former Flat champion jock Richard Hughes.

I'm using the term 'run' rather loosely as Mr Hughes was nowhere to be seen on the day in question but I'm assuming he doesn't have an awful lot of spare time for pulling pints of Timmy Taylor's given he's currently training out of Weathercock House in Lambourn - a yard forever associated with the redoubtable Mrs Jenny Pitman and 1983 Grand National winner Corbiere.

Anyway, with Racing TV broadcasting run-of-the-mill midweek fare from Goodwood, Galway and Catterick Bridge, we decided to sit outside in the late summer sun; more close-run encounters were spotted at the Sydney St - Britten St junction than at the Catterick races. 

Earwigged at the bar: 'Let me check - yes, yes, my William Hill account is up as well.' All seems so deceptively easy, doesn't it? Unfortunately, I still haven't worked out what I'm doing wrong.

Usually around this time of year I ask my butler to dig out the tweeds and take them for their annual visit to the local dry cleaners in preparation for the season ahead. That won't be necessary this year. I recall now with a certain degree of embarrassment the time I took the tweeds on an end-of-summer jolly to the Stratford races. On that occasion, as the result of an oversight on Beeves' part, I arrived fully togged up but with a furtive mothball concealed in one of those troublesome inside pockets. I wasn't unduly pestered by low-flying insects during racing but afterwards during post-race drinks the sweet-smelling, sweet-talking Lady Fotherington-Smythe, knocking back pints of house lager faster than my odd job builder - 'Listerine' I think she called it - was memorably dismissive. Most disconcerting.

Since the resumption of racing following lockdown there appears to have been a surfeit of big-priced winners. One school of thought contends that, with no on-course market, off-course bookmakers are more willing to lay realistic odds about outsiders. At this point I should point out that the longshots I've bet since resumption have all finished exactly where the starting price indicated they should have.

British racing looks set to continue behind closed doors for the foreseeable future. Without spectators, the sport is expected to lose between £250 - £300 million this year. Trevor Hemmings is just one owner who has cut his cloth accordingly.

If you've made it this far, your perseverance is about to be rewarded with another one of my disappointing selections...

Seventeen are set to go to post for the Silver Trophy (3.57 Chepstow) with Lightly Squeeze a non-runner.

Paul Nicholls chalked up a four-timer at the track this afternoon with McFabulous impressive in the Persian War. The Ditcheat handler saddles two in this tomorrow - Saint Sonnet and Sir Psycho. 

Saint Sonnet carries top weight and I think I'm correct in saying that only one horse has carried top weight to victory since the inaugural running in 1988 - Court Minstrel obliged at odds of 40/1 in 2015 (and subsequently went on to win on the 2017 renewal as well).

Sir Psycho was extremely slick at his obstacles in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock and was not disgraced behind Burning Victory in the Triumph Hurdle, although we shouldn't forget Goshen (declared 4.25 Goodwood, Sunday) was some 10 lengths clear of his field when coming to grief in that most dramatic of races. Bryan Carver can claim five but the four-year-old still looks quite high in the handicap and would probably prefer more cut, a comment that applies to a few of the runners. Only two four-year-olds have come home in front: Carlovent (1999); and Mr Thriller (2009). 

The Dan Skelton / Harry Skelton combination took the spoils with Shelford in 2014 and Flash The Steel last year. The brothers try for the hat-trick tomorrow with Flash The Steel now rated eight pounds higher than 12 months ago. 

I've seen the J.P. McManus owned Notre Pari tipped up in a few places. This one looked booked for a place in the Lanzarote before coming to grief at the final flight; winner Burrows Edge finished down the field in the Coral Cup off a mark of 138.

As a general rule of thumb I prefer one that has shown form over the course here. Caswell Bay boasts course and distance winning form and finished second behind Torpillo in last year's renewal of the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow 4-Y-O Hurdle but his profile is too inconsistent and, again, I think he'd prefer easier conditions.

The two that I've considered at a price are Hometown Boy and Push The Tempo.

Hometown Boy likes to race prominently and has respectable efforts behind McFabulous and Hurricane Harvey in the book although I note the majority of his racing has been on right-handed tracks. 

Push The Tempo doesn't have too many miles on the clock and will not be inconvenienced by drying ground. His third behind Chapmanshype at Kelso three weeks ago reads well; Robert Stephens' charge finished fifth behind Secret Investor in the 2018 running of the Persian War. On Racing Post ratings Push The Tempo is the one to beat, with jockey Rex Dingle able to claim three; I've noted the price being nibbled at this evening. He could 'bounce' after the long layoff before that Kelso run but, conversely, that run may give a fitness edge against those making their seasonal debuts.

At the time of writing most layers offer 20/1 and several are paying one fifth the odds five places; in a competitive affair Push The Tempo is the each-way selection.   

Welsh Grand National 2019

Earlier today I was approached  by a punter who suggested PG stood for Port Guzzler - the sheer temerity of it. The same punter then proceeded to ask me for an each-way suggestion for tomorrow's Welsh National (2.50 Chepstow).

My minimalist response is reproduced below - one for you to take or for you to leave.

Sky Bet pays six places and offers 9/1 about Prime Venture in first time cheekpieces; enthusiasm is tempered by the fact the horse has never won a race over fences.

The vote goes to The Two Amigos, placed in five of his six chase starts to date; Nicky Martin's charge is currently quoted an 18/1 chance with  Paddy Power / Betfair who pay one fifth the odds five places.

A quick check-up at Chepstow

Chepstow's two day meeting is seen by many as the start of the core National Hunt season.

Earlier this afternoon Thyme Hill ran out a determined winner of the Persian War Novices' Hurdle (2.10) outpacing Fiddlerontheroof after the final flight on ground described as good to soft.

That going description changed to soft before the 'Professor Caroline Tisdall Supports Heroic Jumpers Veterans' Handicap Chase (Leg 7 of Vets' Series)' at 3.55 in which the aforementioned professor Caroline Tisdall held a share in two of the runners, Dell'Arca and Vieux Lion Rouge.

The former was tipped up on Radio 4 this morning, the logic being, presumably, that if an owner decides to sponsor a race, they are likely to be reasonably well motivated to try and win some of their own money; unfortunately for the Radio 4 tipster, the latter obliged at odds of 9/2.

Looking at tomorrow's card, Relentless Dreamer (3.20) did me a big favour at odds of 16/1 at Cheltenham around this time last year but he hasn't been seen out since; on balance I think Rebecca Curtis' charge would prefer slightly better conditions underfoot. To my mind Lil Rockerfeller's jumping of the larger obstacles is not consistent enough.

Only three contest the novice chase at 3.55 but all eyes will be on the widely touted Reserve Tank.

Connections have decided to allow Ballyandy to take his chance in the Silver Trophy (4.30) and Nigel Twiston-Davies' charge has to concede a minimum of 14 pounds to all 17 rivals; that looks particularly difficult on soft ground.

Paul Kealy tips up Coolanly in the Weekender.

I thought this one had a chance in the Challow last December but on the day he drifted like a barge in the betting and was one of the first beaten; once or twice afterwards I thought he just looked bossed out of it when the chips were down.

The Evan Williams trained Bold Plan is likely to be popular while Remastered looks unexposed on his first run in a handicap.

The trouble with a wager at this time of year is you often have to take fitness on trust. Of the 18 declared just three have run within the last three months - Didtheyleavuoutto, Man Of Plenty and last year's winner Garo De Juilley.

The last-named is rated three pounds higher this time but looks to have had this as his target following a pipe-opener over fences. He finished well beaten behind Champagne Court and Coolanly in the Martin Pipe but prior to that was thirteen lengths adrift of Paisley Park in Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle (run on soft ground) and just over ten lengths behind Capitaine in the Greene King Handicap Hurdle at Taunton.

That form reads well and Sophie Leech's charge appears to handle underfoot conditions; last year's winning rider Paddy Brennan is aboard Coolanly but the booking of Adrian Heskin catches the eye.

Ordinarily I would be distinctly reticent this early in the season but, hell, several layers (including Betfair, Paddy Power, Sky Bet and Bet Victor) are offering 33/1 and paying one fifth the odds five places.

To use the vernacular, I'm not convinced I have my eye in but at the prices Garo De Juilley is the each-way suggestion.

Becher Chase 2018

In search of a (seasonal) Saturday wager I've been browsing through runners in the London National (Sandown 3.35), the Welsh National Trial (Chepstow 2.35) and the Becher Chase (Aintree 1.30).

Ramses De Teillee, fifth behind Present Man in the Badger Ales last time on ground that wouldn't necessarily have suited, looks to have conditions in his favour at Chepstow on this his second start after a wind operation - he's the one to beat and is priced accordingly.

In a race where five of the ten runners boast course and distance winning form, I thought I had a potential angle with Another Venture; quoting from Kim Bailey's Straight from the Stable tour (Weekender 24-28.10.18):

"...he'll be all about those long-distance staying handicaps this season. I'm sure there's a good one in him somewhere, although he'd want the ground riding very soft." 

Unfortunately the layers aren't showing too much Christmas spirit - 7/1 generally, 9/1 Paddy Power - so I'm off to Aintree instead for the Becher Chase which is run over the National fences.

Eighteen are set to face the starter including former winners Highland Lodge, Vieux Lion Rouge and Blaklion. The bottom four race from out of the handicap; the going is currently described as soft.

In the past ten years only two horses have carried more than 11-0 to victory - Vic Venturi (11-12 in 2009) and Blaklion (11-6 last year).

In the same timeframe just two winners have been returned bigger than 14/1 - Oscar Time (25/1 in 2014) and Highland Lodge (20/1 in 2015).

Nigel Twiston-Davies' pair, Blaklion and Ballyoptic, find themselves at the head of the market while both Gordon Elliott runners have been off the track a long time. James Moffat sends down Just A Par along with Highland Lodge from his Cartmel base.

I've seen Crosshue Boy tipped up in a couple of places but on Racing Post ratings this one has something to find with a few of these while Present Man has done the majority of his racing on right-handed tracks.

For this race I tend to prefer one with form over the fences and the one I like with less than 11-0 is 2016 winner Vieux Lion Rouge.

Part-owned by Professor Caroline Tisdall (who 'supports the IJF' according to the naming of the first at Chepstow), the gelding was beaten some 65 lengths into seventh by Blaklion last year but at least starts tomorrow off a mark six pounds lower.

'Not likely to make too much of a difference!' I can hear you cry but, hey, he has undergone wind surgery since last at the track, sports a first-time tongue tie and, to date, has at least managed to complete every time he has tackled these fences.

Of the others Ultragold has stand-out form over these obstacles but races beyond three miles for the first time. On his two attempts at three miles to date he finished ninth behind Go Conquer at Ascot (November 2017) and fourth of six behind Dinons in a novices' hurdle at Cheltenham at the end of October.

Those who want a bigger price may think Regal Flow worthy of a second look.

Bob Buckler's charge won the Midlands Grand National on heavy at Uttoxeter in March before coming home tenth in the Scottish National. His two runs since should have put him spot on - my reservation is he has no form over these fences.

Oddschecker tells me William Hill is paying one fifth the odds seven places; at 9/1 Vieux Lion Rouge is the each-way selection.

Chepstow chinwag

Back in the middle of the long hot summer we've just enjoyed Harry Skelton was some twenty winners ahead of Richard Johnson in the race to become the 2018/19 champion jockey; the tally this evening reads: Johnson 98, Skelton 87.

Exeter's meeting yesterday may have been abandoned due to hard ground but it's raining and blowing a gale outside at the moment.

Tomorrow Chepstow stages its opening meeting of the core NH season.This two-day jamboree is one to watch with the future in mind; the falling rain further tempers enthusiasm for a wager.

Earlier this afternoon Maria's Benefit (fourth in the mares' hurdle at the Festival in March) ran out a comfortable winner on her chase debut on heavy ground at Newton Abbot with 2017 Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger failing to impress in the jumping department.

Several think Colin Tizzard holds a strong hand in the novice chase division this year.

Both Vision Des Flos (my each-way selection for the Ballymore where he finished sixth behind Samcro) and Lostintranslation (seventh behind Summerville Boy in the Supreme and then four weeks later beaten half a length by Black Op at Aintree) held five-day entries for the Smerdon Tree Novices' Chase (Chepstow 3.35) but neither has made the final cut.

Trained by Paul Nicholls, Master Tommytucker came to my attention a couple of months back but he's priced up favourite this evening and Monbeg Legend, officially rated 147, will be no pushover and could easily have a fitness edge.

With Chepstow such an idiosyncratic track it's easy to see why previous course and distance winner Rock The Kasbah is favourite for the handicap chase at 5.20. Cobra De Mai is of some interest; he was beaten by a smart sort in Javert at Uttoxeter over two and a half miles the last day - after this race connections will find out whether he needs further a little further these days.

Since my last post in July two racing-related publications from former times have come into my possession. Racing Review (May - June 1949) describes itself as 'the foremost illustrated monthly journal for Sportsmen of the Turf' and is priced at two shillings & sixpence; and the official racecard for the Ladbroke Chester Handicap meeting on 4th May 1976. Ladbroke's sponsorship of the Chester Handicap on that day was the princely sum of £2,100.

Finally a work colleague helpfully mailed me a link to this story

The BHA is set to give racecourse obstacles a yellow makeover in trials after researchers discovered horses tend to see the currently-used orange as a shade of green.

How my colleague thinks this research will help improve my betting selections is quite frankly beyond me. I pointed this out to him in a rather snappy reply.

"Making the obstacles easier to see is unlikely to be of any discernible benefit to the beasts I tend to waste my hard-earned on. As a general rule of thumb, the issue for the horses I tend to bet isn't so much they can't see the obstacles, rather it's they struggle to run fast enough to keep up with the other horses in the race."

Looking forward to losing more of my hard-earned with you over the coming months...

The rescheduled Coral Welsh Grand National 2017

Look, I know I'm getting older and that bit more forgetful - in the pub I am constantly being reminded to buy a round - but when I checked out tomorrow's Welsh Grand National preview in the Weekender, I was struck with a very distinct feeling of deja vu.

Ten days ago I tipped Wild West Wind for the Welsh National that was subsequently called off. The Weekender preview for that race discussed Wild West Wind's victory in the Welsh National Trial on December 9th and continued:

"The gap between that race and this one is just 18 days but Tom George's charge will be thereabouts if fully recovered."

Rather strangely, that's exactly what's printed in this week's Weekender...

Tom George's charge, together with Alfie Spinner (second) and Milansbar (third), has benefitted from an additional ten days to recover from those particular exertions. Unfortunately layers are no longer offering the 12/1 originally quoted; Wild West Wind is generally 8/1.

As in my original preview, given underfoot conditions (Chepstow heavy, 'brutal' to quote Evan Williams), I've concentrated my insubstantial efforts on runners who are weighted to carry less than 11-0 - eight of the last ten winners fall into this bracket - and who have also shown some form previously at the track.

Last year Native River became the first top-weight to come home in front since Carvill's Hill in 1991. Since the war there has been no thirteen-year-old winner and just one twelve-year-old - Gallery in 1960.

The shortlist comprises Raz De Maree, O'Faolains Boy, Buckhorn Timothy, Milansbar, Alfie Spinner, Firebird Flyer and Emperor's Choice.

Taking James Bowen's five pound claim into consideration, Raz De Maree (14/1) - second last year - tries on better terms this time and it's unlikely there's another Native River in the field. I saw him tipped up here and there over Christmas but he's looking a little long in the tooth now and I prefer to look elsewhere.

Alfie Spinner (25/1) is thirteen as well but his second in the Welsh National Trial reads well; on a strict interpretation of the form he has the beating of Wild West Wind. Prior to that run Alfie was pulled up in the Badger Ales at Wincanton behind Present Man (Final Nudge a head second).

The booking of Geraghty for O'Faolains Boy (25/1) catches the eye. This evening the Racing Post quotes handler Rebecca Curtis:

"We gave him a tie-forward operation coming into the winter, which seems to have really helped. He seems in really good form and is hopefully back to his old self."

O'Faolains Boy also holds an entry in the Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown (3.00).

When last seen over the larger obstacles in the 2016 Welsh National Trial, Buckhorn Timothy (25/1)  seemed to find the larger obstacles getting in the way. His two recent hurdle runs provide some grounds for optimism; Joe Tizzard has told the Racing Post:

"We've had this in mind for him all season... Like them all, he's got to handle the conditions but he has a good attitude and should be all right."

Earlier in the week Neil King issued a positive update about Milansbar (16/1).

I'm wary when the trainer tells us 'Milansbar has been quite hard work for Trevor [Whelan] on his last two starts...'; the first-time cheekpieces will need to work their magic but on Racing Post ratings he is the top one in the field.

2014 winner Emperor's Choice (20/1) may find this coming a little too quickly after winning on heavy at Haydock over three miles three and a half furlongs last Saturday while Firebird Flyer is one of three entries for Evan Williams.

Pobbles Bay looks the stable's best chance while On The Road is unexposed but not guaranteed to stay.

Firebird Flyer (40/1) finished second behind Mountainous in 2016 and then eighth last year but has generally been out of sorts (pulled up in the Midlands National and the Scottish National).

There was a faint flicker of hope on his comeback run over hurdles at Ffos Las in November; he races off a mark 11 pounds lower than last year, is the second best horse in the field on Racing Post ratings and jockey Conor Ring claims three pounds.

It's a wide open event.

On the back of Joe Tizzard's comments Buckhorn Timothy is the tentative each-way suggestion at 25/1, with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred amongst those paying one fifth the odds five places.

Brief notes for the new season

Summer highlight - picking up a copy of R.M. Bevan's The Roodee: 450 years of racing in Chester from Fossgate Books in Fossgate, York.

The book contains a picture of a particularly young-looking Willie Carson which brought back memories of this Jak cartoon originally published in the London Evening Standard 10 June 1980 and which I saw printed in the Liverpool Daily Post at roughly the same time.

Holidaymakers may have taken a dim view of the late summer rains but the benefit to jump racing has been obvious; we've already seen a number of decent performers in action, in stark contrast to last season.

Much to my dismay I wasn't able to attend Ludlow's first October meeting but Bigmartre's victory in the novice chase catches the eye, with Mad Jack Mytton third and my fancy, Mick Thonic, unseating Brian Cooper three out when probably held by the winner.

Similarly Shantou Rock's all-the-way win in a Newton Abbot novice earlier today warrants close inspection.

Finian's Oscar makes his chase debut at Chepstow tomorrow but Market Rasen Summer Plate winner Alcala will be no pushover. Paddy Power offered 5/1 about Paul Nicholls' charge earlier today; at the time of writing 7/2 is the best price available. I'm not going to play but I prefer Alcala.

If you fancy a wager in the Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Hurdle (3.35 Chepstow) then a close look at the Fred Winter form from the Festival is de rigueur (Percy Street sixth, Dino Velvet eighth, Dolos thirteenth, Fidux nineteenth). I subsequently tipped Dolos to make amends at Ascot in April but So Celebre proved too good (Percy Street third). Before this race I fancied Dino Velvet with Alan King's yard in particularly good form but the current price makes no appeal.

In the Silver Trophy (4.10 Chepstow) I shall watch Alary with interest. On his first run for the stable in the Peter Marsh at Haydock last January he did not look good at all but connections clearly feel the talent is there. To my mind a number from the Tizzard yard are likely to come on for their first race this season and over the smaller obstacles this looks like a warm-up for the winter ahead.

Boxing Day blues

A little like Victor Meldrew I feel I must be getting old and miserable because the Boxing Day cards have just failed to inspire.

In years gone by, driven to distraction by the family Christmas, I've attended Newton Abbot and Towcester races on St Stephen's Day but unfortunately those fixtures no longer form part of the racing calendar.

The withdrawal of Coneygree has paved the way for Thistlecrack to take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George VI Chase at Kempton. A fascinating race in prospect, agreed, but with just five runners it's one to savour rather than bet on. The meagre turnout for this showpiece event is likely to be seen as something of an embarrassment in certain quarters.

A similarly small field is assured for Kempton's Christmas Hurdle where Sam Twiston-Davies will want to try and make all aboard The New One. Richard Harper has declared Gray Wolf River, rated some 104 pounds lower than The New One, in the hope of collecting place prize money; some layers have quoted odds of 5,000/1.

Hennessy form should come in handy in the next few days with Blaklion and Henri Parry Morgan declared for Monday's Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby while Native River, Carole's Destrier, Vyta Du Roc and Theatre Guide all hold entries for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday.

On form Blaklion looks the one to beat at Wetherby but after his fifth in the Hennessy pilot Ryan Hatch reported his charge had 'cut out' up the long home straight and connections were likely to consider a breathing operation...

Previous Welsh National winners Mountainous and Emperor's Choice will probably try to repeat the trick on Tuesday but, provided the going doesn't dry out too much, I'll take an each-way interest in Firebird Flyer.

Second in last year's race, Evan Williams' charge went on to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March and had a reasonable prep on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month. He starts from a mark eight pounds higher this time.

Looking slightly further ahead, ITV commences its racing coverage at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Richard Hoiles is the new lead commentator; I know I'm going to miss Simon Holt.

Happy Christmas!