Northumberland Plate 2011

Prior to last year's running of the Northumberland Plate I wrote:

"Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not..."

Twelve months on, perhaps there is something of a trend.... Last year's Plate winner Overturn took this year's Chester Cup while Veiled won the Ascot Stakes and Swingkeel the Queen Alexandra Stakes, all horses with jumps form in the book. Digging a little deeper, I discovered that between the years 1994 and 2001, no winner of the Pitmen's Derby had previously run over the sticks; from 2002 onwards, five of the subsequent nine winners had National Hunt form (Bangalore 2002, Unleash 2003, Mirjan 2004, Arc Bleu 2008 and Overturn 2010).

Regular readers will know that this Flat term I'm trying to focus on horses with jumps form racing over more than one and a half miles; two Royal Ascot winners last week were supplemented by My Arch (8/1) taking the Pontefract Cup on Sunday while Kavaloti (11/10f) collected a class 6 handicap on the all-weather at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

The horses with jumps form declared for Newcastle's Northumberland Plate tomorrow are Overturn, Investissement, La Vecchia Scuola and first reserve Crackentorp who may yet line up as Her Majesty's horse, Tactitian, is rated doubtful this evening. Although this is a two mile race, a low draw is seen as important - in the past decade four winners have raced out of a stall numbered higher than nine, with Eddie Ahern performing miracles last year on Overturn who broke from stall 21. Donald McCain's charge missed last weeks' Queen Alexandra Stakes on account of the ground, has a plum draw in stall two but is rated thirteen pounds higher this year - Henry Brooke can claim five. It's worth noting that only one horse has carried more than 8-11 to victory in the last decade - Bangalore won with 9-5 in 2002. John Gosden's Investissement is another with a good draw (berth three) and looks interesting, having had this as his target for a while; previously with Evan Williams, the Singspiel gelding didn't take to hurdling, finishing tailed off in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jim Goldie trains bay mare La Vecchia Scuola who is another with a good draw (stall 4) but has been out of sorts since her second in last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket; on her last run over hurdles she finished over 30 lengths behind Quevega in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. My Arch took the Pontefract Cup on Sunday but is drawn widest of all in stall 22 while Tim Easterby's Crackentorp finished third behind the useful Storm Brig in a Newcastle novice hurdle last November.

Of the other runners, Activate's Haydock win last month catches the eye, with Swingkeel (sixth) and My Arch (seventh) both having won since - Deauville Flyer, another from Tim Easterby's yard, was fourth that day, suffering interference in running around two furlongs out, and probably represents that trainer's best chance.

Almost all layers offer a quarter the odds four places - in a very competitive affair I'll take an each-way interest in Investissement at around 9/1.

I haven't done any work on Sunday's cards but I'll look closely at my Epsom Derby selection Native Khan who goes in the Irish Derby. Writing in the Weekender Kieren Fallon rates him overpriced at 8/1 and 'the logical each-way pick', while Nick Mordin selects the same horse as he sees favourite Carlton House 'vulnerable off a quick return because he's still immature'.

On the same day but changing codes, 18 have been declared for the English Summer National run over three and half miles at Uttoxeter. I prefer a young horse for this one and will do some homework on Eoin Griffin's The Last Derby who was third in the Cork National last October and sixth in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in April.

Northumberland Plate 2010

Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not, but the jumpers in tomorrow's field include the aforementioned Mamlook (ridden on this occasion by Seb Sanders), Halla San, Overturn together with the Irish-trained pair Rajik and Zaralabad. Although the Pitmen's Derby is a two mile affair, a decent pitch early on is crucial so lower drawn horses tend to be favoured - in the last ten years the winner has come from a double figure berth on just three occasions. Weight plays its part as well - just one winner has carried more than eight stones eleven pounds in the past decade and in that time only one favourite has obliged.

With those stats in mind, of the jumpers mentioned above Mamlook looks to have a little too much weight, both Halla San and Overturn have been done by the draw while Rajik in stall three is better placed than his stablemate but finished well beaten behind Junior at Ascot eleven days ago; will the gelding have had enough time to recover? Before I knew the draw, I fancied Donald McCain's Overturn but the draw is the big negative - this evening William Hill go 12/1 which makes some each-way appeal.

On the back of two recent wins at York Deauville Flyer has been heavily backed over the past couple of days and heads the market this evening at 4/1. Jockey Robert Winston is wasting to do the eight stones three required. Of Andrew Balding's pair I considered Bernie The Bolt but the trainer states the gelding is probably better in the autumn while the value about Stanstill (was 20s now 14s) has ebbed away. I'm fast running out of options so, in a typically difficult handicap, Desert Sea is the each-way suggestion. He will like the ground, has a decent draw, a racing weight and is 14/1 with most layers this evening; beaten just under four lengths by Mamlook in the Chester Cup the selection is six pounds better off here.

Weekend notes

In a strongly-run Irish Derby earlier this afternoon, Fame And Glory gained some compensation for his Epsom defeat by beating stablemate Golden Sword five lengths.This was Aidan O'Brien's seventh Irish Derby and Johnny Murtagh's third. In post-race comments Murtagh identified the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown as a possible target for the winner. Riding in his first classic, the winning trainer's son, J P O'Brien, finished tenth of the eleven runners on 200/1 shot Byzantine.

Michael Owen's wife, Louise, has recently been gainfully employed promoting next Saturday's Coral Eclipse at Sandown. That race has been given an extra fillip with the news that Epsom Derby winner Sea The Stars now goes for that prize, having been withdrawn from the Irish Derby on account of the easy ground.

There were plenty of footballing links at Newcastle's meeting on Saturday, links Derek Thompson wasn't slow to point out. Before the Pitmen's Derby, former Magpies' player Peter Beardsley and Hull City manager Phil Brown tipped up Som Tala from the stable of ex-England international Mick Channon. The beast, a 16/1 shot, won with something in hand. Roker Park won the 2.35 and Horatio Carter the 3.45; both are owned by Sunderland fan Mr T Alderson. Roker Park was the ground Sunderland used to play at while Horati Stratton Carter, better known as Raich Carter, captained them to the league title and their first FA Cup final victory. By the way, just in case you missed it, Derek Thompson originates from these parts...

Following on from recent match-fixing posts, I'm grateful to the Wrexham Supporters Association Blog for bringing to my attention two links that add some detail to the circumstances surrounding the Histon v. Lewes game in September 2008. Cambridge News Online reported the Histon team were threatened by a gambling ring while in May 2009 the Daily Mail made reference to five non-league games that were under investigation. Of course, fixing is a worry in all sports - the first-round tie at this year's Wimbledon Championships between Jurgen Melzer and Wayne Odesnik has been been in the news and has been reported to the authorities. The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) for its part has welcomed the recent announcement by Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe that he is to set up a Sports Betting Integrity Panel.

Mrs Tips and I were at Wimbledon on Thursday, having been allocated two Centre Court tickets through the public ballot system. The crowds were big, the weather hot - I found it all jolly tiring. I was left wondering whether the tennis product is better consumed through the medium of television. Mrs T. enjoyed it though, so I've asked her to file a report; she says she'll do that when she has fully recovered...

The Northumberland Plate

Weather permitting, 'The Pitmen's Derby' will be run at Newcastle this Saturday with a guaranteed maximum field of twenty runners. The ground is already riding soft, and there's more rain forecast, so the selection will need to stay every yard of the two mile trip to be in with any chance whatsoever.

Going through the runners earlier in the week I came up with a shorlist of three for what is traditionally a very competitive handicap; luck in running can play a big part in this race. The three are Sentry Duty, Irish raider Al Eile and the filly Juniper Girl who finished second to Full House at Ascot last week.

Jumping yards have a good record in this race. Nicky Henderson's Sentry Duty is respected but has a tough task carrying top weight. Al Eile finished fourth in the 2006 Champion Hurdle behind Brave Inca before going right out of form. However he bounced back this April winning The Aintree Hurdle, with his trainer declaring after the race that a big handicap on the Flat was a possible target over the summer. This looks the race he's been laid out for and in my opinion he's not badly handicapped. Backed at 12/1 on Tuesday and now trading at around 8/1, he goes on the ground and also has the benefit of an inside draw which has been important in this race in the past, barring last year that is.

I looked long and hard at Juniper Girl who has been allocated 9-2 and claimer Luke Morris takes off a handy looking 5lbs but the draw in berth 13 is potentially troublesome and the same comment applies to Nosferatu, the likely favourite, drawn in berth 16. Al Eile is the selection.

A car load of colleagues travel up to Newcastle tomorrow to go to this meeting - two each way longshots I've whispered quietly to the more reckless characters are Rising Shadow in the first and Protector (2.45) who was mentioned by Angus Loughran when running a decent race at 50/1 in the Wokingham last Saturday.