Fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat...

The manner in which Really Super, fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat, scooted clear in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen yesterday set me thinking. 

Flat racing emerged from lockdown on June 1st while jump racing had to wait until July 1st. Since the resumption of jump racing, how have horses that ran on the Flat in June fared on their first run back over jumps? 

The detail below shows they've fared rather well, returning a level stakes profit of over 45 points... 

Southwell 01.07.20  

12:00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran

12:30

Issac Wonder [17F] 12/1 WINS

Azzuri [29F] 5/4f second

Tonto's Spirit [6F] 17/2 sixth

Cracking Destiny [30F] 9/2 UR; 12 ran

1:10

No qualifiers; 12 ran

1:40

Flintrock [18F] 18/1 fifth

Zenafire [16F] 33/1 eighth; 12 ran

2:10

Medalla De Oro [27F] 11/2 second

Rhosneigr [23F] 6/1 fourth

Thrave [24F] 100/30 fifth; 12 ran

2:40

Ashutor [15F] 5/4f third

Seeusoon [23F] 14/1 fourth

Harbour Sunrise [20F] 250/1 sixth

Let Rip [22F] 7/1 eleventh; 12 ran

3:10

Byron Flyer [25F] 9/2 fourth

Paseo [16F] 14/1 seventh

Final Choice [19F] 50/1 eleventh

Stynes [22F] 28/1 twelfth; 12 ran

3.40 

St Gallen [29F] 3/1f  WINS

Scorched Earth [16F] 6/1 second

Dino Velvet [22F] 4/1 third

See The Sea [25F] 16/1 fourth

Carntop [15F] 7/2 sixth; 12 ran

4.10

Hattab [22F] 13/2 third

Magellan [21F] 9/2 fifth

Prabeni [18F] 18/1 sixth; 12 ran

Southwell aggregates:

108 runners

25 qualifiers

2 winners: Issac Wonder (12/1); St Gallen (3/1f).

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: -8 points

----------

Uttoxeter 06.07.20

12.55

Ginistrelli [26F] 2/1 WINS

Aleatoric [6F] 150/1 third

Employer [13F] 4/1 eighth; 11 ran

1.25

Check My Pulse [19F] 66/1 third

Fanfaronade  [13F] 40/1 eighth; 8 ran

1.55

Dariya [21F] 8/1 fifth; 12 ran

2.30

Diodorus [21F] 2/1 second

Escapability [24F] 11/8f third; 9 ran

3.00

Mister Universum [28F] 16/1 WINS; 9 ran

3.30

No qualifiers; 12 ran

4.00 

Whiskey And Water [18F] 13/2 second

Building Bridges [26F] 16/1 fourth; 12 ran

4.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

5.00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran.

Uttoxeter aggregates:

94 runners

11 qualifiers

2 winners: Ginistrelli (2/1); Mister Universum (16/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +9 points

----------

Newton Abbot 07.07.20

1.40

Hiconic [30F] 9/2 WINS

Peat Moss [14F] 6/1 third

Debt Of Honour [21F] 12/1 sixth

American Dreamer [20F] 22/1 seventh; 7 ran

2.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.40 

No qualifiers; 8 ran

3.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

3.45

No qualifiers; 8 ran

4.20

Hereia [32F] 8/1 fifth

Grapevine [23F] 14/1 sixth; 7 ran

4.50

Teaser [35F] 12/1 sixth; 9 ran

5.20

No qualifiers; 8 ran

5.50

No qualifiers; 9 ran

Newton Abbot aggregates:

74 runners

7 qualifiers

1 winner: Hiconic (9/2)

Profit / Loss to one point win stake: -1.5 points

----------

Stratford 08.07.20

12.15

No qualifiers; 8 ran

12.45

Beat The Judge [28F] 5/1 third

Oborne Lady [23F] 250/1 seventh; 9 ran

1.20

I'lletyougonow [31F] 25/1 second; 9 ran

1.50

Lady Reset [14F] 4/1 fourth; 11 ran

2.20

Romanor [33F] 28/1 WINS

Et Moi Alors [7F] 20/1 sixth; 10 ran

2.50

My Renaissance [20F] 8/1 seventh; 10 ran

3.20

Jamacho [17F] 11/4 WINS

Chelsea's Boy [23F] fifth 25/1; 9 ran

3.50

No qualifiers; 7 ran

4.20 

Valkenburg [23F] 13/8f PU; 8 ran

Stratford aggregates:

81 runners

10 qualifiers

2 winners: Romanor (28/1); Jamacho (11/4)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +21.75

----------

Market Rasen 10.07.20

12.00

Bear Valley [14F] 9/2 second

For Pleasure [15F] 13/2 third

Crimson King [17F] 40/1 tenth; 12 ran

12.30

No qualifiers; 7 ran

1.00

No qualifiers; 8 ran

1.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.05

Red Force One [13F] 5/1 WINS

Fair Mountain [24F] 12/1 second

Brandon Castle [20F] 11/2 fourth

Fiesole [34F] 20/1 seventh

Valentino Dancer [22F] 15/2 ninth

Red Tornado [22F] 33/1 PU; 10 ran

2.40

Really Super [38F] 25/1 WINS

Fidux [31F] 14/1 second

San Benedeto [24F] 17/2 eighth

Adrrastos [20F] 16/1 PU; 17 ran

3.15

Searching [10F] 8/1 WINS

Mantovani [19F] 15/2 third; 6 ran

3.50 

No qualifiers; 6 ran

4.20 

No qualifiers; 7 ran

Market Rasen aggregates:

82 runners

15 qualifiers

3 winners: Red Force One (5/1); Really Super (25/1); Searching (8/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +26 points

----------

According to the back of my fag packet a 1 point win wager on runners on their first run back over jumps after a pipe-opener on the Flat in June is currently showing a profit of 47.25 points. 

Time for a lie-down I think.

Midlands Grand National 2020

A curtailed post on Gold Cup day to look at tomorrow's Midlands Grand National (3.35); the going at Uttoxeter is described as heavy, soft in places.

With other major sporting events postponed or cancelled on account of the coronavirus pandemic, you feel it's only a matter of time before racing is affected.

Ladbrokes Trophy winner De Rasher Counter stands his ground; Ben Jones can claim three but the top weight still has to give away a minimum of ten pounds to his rivals over this marathon four mile two furlong trip. Petite Power, Sheneededtherun, Very First Time and Financial Outcome all contest this from out of the handicap.

Christmas In April won the Sussex National at Plumpton in January and the Devon National at Exeter last month and as a result is now rated 14 pounds higher. I'm just concerned this will may well prove one trip to the well too many.

Truckers Lodge is priced up favourite on the back of his second behind Potters Corner (won this last year off 135) in the Welsh National; the handicapper has raised Paul Nicholls' charge just one pound for that effort but this trip is the best part of four furlongs further.

Prime Venture was fourth in that Welsh National, beaten just over four lengths, and the handicapper has dropped Evan Williams' charge one pound. Fourth in this race last year off 139 he tries this time off 135 and connections fit blinkers for the first time. You can see why this one makes plenty of appeal but at 7/1 now the value has disappeared.

Joe Farrell would prefer better ground while the mare Sheneededtherun has really improved for a move of yard but this represents a step up in class.

I'm considering two at an each-way price: Dominateur and Just Your Type.

The former is unexposed; in the RP Weekender [11-15.12.19] Oliver Sherwood said:

"I think he can make up into a nice staying chaser and could be worth following."

Just Your Type finished second behind Bigirononhiship over an extended four miles at Kelso in December. He never really travelled next time in the Towton at Wetherby and has since undergone wind surgery; if that surgery has helped the cause, 14/1 (five places) looks tempting. Connections have ditched the tongue-tie tried in the Towton.

Along with Captain Drake (unseated twice in last three runs), Just Your Type is joint top-rated on Racing Post ratings.

It's certainly a risky wager but it may just be the last one for quite some time...

For those with money to burn after Cheltenham Just Your Type (14/1) is the each-way suggestion; Sky Bet pay one fifth the odds five places.

A Uttoxeter longshot

The lull before the storm...

Media attention switches to the Flat cards at Doncaster and Kempton tomorrow ahead of next week's Aintree Grand National meeting.

With two low-key jumps meetings on offer, at Stratford and Uttoxeter, I'm going rogue this week; those of a nervous disposition easily offended by spurious argument should read no further.

Ordinarily I wouldn't look too closely at a run-of-the-mill Class 4 handicap hurdle with 20 runners but 'needs must when the devil vomits into your kettle', to quote Edmund Blackadder II; I'm going to make a case for the Robin Dickin trained Three Bullet Gate in the 3.55 at Uttoxeter.

Stable stalwart Thomas Crapper was retired on Wednesday - 'Crappy' wasn't particularly well-named, having won over £136,000 in prize money for connections. All that said, the yard isn't currently in the best of form - Lara Trot was the last winner, holding stablemate Tara Well half a length at Leicester on 22nd January.

Last time out Three Bullet Gate was beaten over 17 lengths by Rhythm Is A Dancer in a Class 3 novices' handicap hurdle over two miles five furlongs at Ludlow, weakening after the final flight. The slight step back in trip here should help the cause.

Prior to that he was beaten under nine lengths by Dyliev in a Warwick novices' handicap hurdle over an inadequate trip of two miles - that one has some respectable efforts to his name including a nose second to the Charlie Mann trained Capone.

The gelding was clearly out of his depth in the Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham in December but 11 days before had finished ten lengths second to Skandiburg at Fakenham. Skandiburg has since finished eighth in the novices' handicap hurdle final at Sandown on Imperial Cup day.

In a Chepstow maiden in November he finished behind The Big Bite (twelfth in the Supreme at the Festival) and prior to that finished third in a Southwell bumper behind Adjourned and Megan's Choice - the former cost 50,000 euros (as a yearling), the latter 45,000 euros.

On Racing Post ratings Three Bullet Gate should be competitive but, obviously, in a wide open event dangers abound.

Owned by Mrs Diana Whateley, favourite Renwick has his first run after wind surgery and sports first-time cheekpeices while Shanty Alley might be expected to show improvement for the step up to two and a half miles. 

Tom Lacey said of He's A Goer in the Weekender 07-11.11.18:

'He's been a bit of a monkey but is getting the hang of things now.'

Connections fit blinkers for the first-time tomorrow.

Cougar Kid, Starjac and Land League (despite protracted absence and occasional tendency to jump right) warrant a second look but a number in the field appear to have questions to answer.

With Tiger Roll as low as 7/2 for next week's National, it would seem the layers think it's more difficult to pick the winner of tomorrow's 3.55 at Uttoxeter - and they may well be proven correct.

Drying ground is likely to suit and both Sky Bet and Bet Victor are paying one fifth the odds five places; at 25/1 Three Bullet Gate is the each-way suggestion.

Midlands Grand National 2019

A somewhat curtailed post following a hectic week at Cheltenham...

Twenty runnners have been declared for tomorrow's Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter due off at 3.35; the going is currently described as soft with strong winds and heavy rain forecast - an inspection has been called for eight o'clock tomorrow morning.

Only two winners have carried more than 11-0 to victory in the past ten years - Synchronised in 2010 and Firebird Flyer in 2016; Ms Parfois and American at the top of the market are set to carry 11-4 and 11-12 respectively.

Last year's winner Regal Flow became the first horse older than nine to come home in front since Lucky Lane obliged in 1995.

A key piece of form is The Last Fling Handicap Chase run at Haydock on December 30th last year. Chef D'Oeuvre beat Back To The Thatch two and threequarter lengths that day with Dell'Arca a further twelve lengths adrift in third.

Chef D'Oeuvre was raised eleven pounds for that victory and went up another four when finishing third (from three pounds out of the handicap) behind Robinsfirth and Ramses De Teillee in Haydock's Grand National Trial.The form reads well and the horse has clearly benefited from a change of stable but inevitably the handicapper has had his say.

Both Back To The Thatch and Dell'Arca haven't run since - the former is up six pounds, the latter down one pound. Back To The Thatch re-opposes Chef D'Oeuvre nine pounds better off for two and threequarter lengths. 

On his seasonal debut for new connections Chef D'Oeuvre was beaten over 21 lengths at this track by Crosspark.

Crosspark won the Eider three weeks ago with Kilkishen six and a half lengths adrift in fourth, Raz De Maree seventh  and Potters Corner falling two from home when appearing to hold every chance.

Potters Corner has been raised three pounds for that effort; he is clearly a talented individual but the fences seem to be getting in the way - Christian Williams' charge has failed to complete in three of his last four chase starts.

Arthur's Gift is relatively unexposed while Ballydine boasts good form behind Lake View Lad, Carole's Destrier and particularly behind Wakanda in the Peter Marsh at Haydock - beaten under five lengths that day, he may have finished much closer but for a bad blunder three from home.

Dawson City, seventh behind Elegant Escape in the Welsh National, collected the Devon National at Exeter three weeks ago and should certainly having little trouble staying the trip but now looks high enough in the handicap.  

Of those at bigger prices Smooth Stepper did me a favour roughly 12 months ago when winning at Kelso; the balance of his form suggests he struggles to stay beyond three and a half miles. Prime Venture has not won over fences in five starts but has been pitched in against the likes of Bags Groove, Kilbricken Storm and Ramses De Teillee.

It's possible to make a case for several in the field. Comments from connections have led me to Back To The Thatch who has the right profile and comes to this a fresher horse than those who ran in the Eider.

At the time of writing William Hill offer 11/1 and pay one fifth the odds seven places.

Back To The Thatch is the each-way selection with William Hill.

Midlands Grand National 2018

Surrounded by random dog-eared notes, mostly written in HB lead pencil, losing betting slips and dishevelled racing papers, I have just watched a replay of this year's mesmeric Gold Cup and surreptitiously shed a tear.

On radio Tom Scudamore described the race as championship steeplechasing at its very best and, of course, he is correct.

Fifteen started but it effectively became a match after the first fence; a race between Native River and Might Bite to be replayed in the mind for years and years to come.

Tomorrow's card at Uttoxeter is under threat from overnight snow and rain; the going is currently heavy and an inspection is scheduled for 8.00am.

Eighteen have been declared for the Midlands Grand National (3.35) run over a trip of four miles two furlongs.

Kerry Lee saddles three while Henry Daly, Dr Richard Newland and Nigel Twiston-Davies all have two runners each.

Newcastle's Eider Chase provides a key piece of form; West Of The Edge finished second behind Baywing with Hainan fourth, Milansbar fifth, Back To The Thatch falling when appearing to hold every chance and Themanfrom Minella pulled up. That particular marathon was run just three weeks ago so there has to be a question mark over how well the participants have recovered.

This evening Dr Newland is pretty upbeat about West Of The Edge's chance and his charge heads the market; just one favourite has obliged in the past ten years.

In the same timeframe no horse older than nine has come home in front and just two have carried more than 10-12; Synchronised in 2010 and Firebird Flyer in 2016 both carried 11-5 to victory.

Those trends highlight the chances of the two Henry Daly runners; Artful Cobbler is preferred to Back To The Thatch who looked to take a pretty hefty tumble at Newcastle.

Hainan is of interest as there's a hint Danny Cook went for home a little too early in the Eider and he's 16/1 with Paddy Power who pay five places but on balance the grey has his fair share of weight.

Using the trends as a guideline I'm going to take a chance on outsider Billy Bronco who looks less exposed than a number in the field and was second behind I Just Know (declared Uttoxeter 4.10) in the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick in January.

Billy Bronco is 25/1 with Sky Bet paying one fifth the odds five places.

And in the event the meeting is abandoned?

I'll start my Cheltenham debrief post - and run that replay of Native River's victory in the Gold Cup.

Two low-key jumpers

The Flat takes centre stage this weekend with big meetings at Doncaster and Dubai, while Stratford and Uttoxeter offer more humble fare over the sticks.

Two jumpers caught my passing interest, both declared to run at Warwick a week last Wednesday but both withdrawn, possibly on account of quicker ground.

Prouts Pub (Stratford 1.55) had previously won a bumper on the all-weather at Lingfield. He has his first run for Nick Gifford who has sent out three winners from just 10 runners this month. Likely favourite Massena sets a reasonable standard off a mark of 128 but was beaten at Taunton on Monday.

Miss Lucky Penny (Uttoxeter 3.55) was withdrawn from the mares' handicap hurdle won impressively by Polly Peachum. Previously she had been beaten threequarters of a length by Wily Fox on her handicap debut at Warwick and connections have decided to have another go - Will Kennedy replaces five pound claimer R J McCarth in the saddle. At the weights there's little between the pair but I'm guessing Miss Lucky Penny will be ridden closer to the pace this time...

A bumper weekend...

Looking at the five day declarations earlier in the week, I'd identified a couple running in bumpers that were of some interest while everyone else was concentrating on the Flat.

Oliver Sherwood has his team in good form at the moment and Luci Di Mezzanotte's head second to The Pirate Queen from the Alan King yard last time read well. King's inmate finished fifth in the Aintree listed mares' bumper on her previous run. Luci had an entry in the Bangor bumper at 4.50 on Saturday but it looks as though Fergal O'Brien's previous winner Down Ace has scared her off...

Peter Bowen's Rolling Maul held a couple of weekend options at Uttoxeter and Stratford on Sunday but the handler has decided to take up neither - instead Bowen sends The Road Ahead to the Warwickshire track where Prideofthecastle from David Pipe's stable is likely to provide a stern test.

It's also worth noting that Propsect Wells, well beaten behind Zarkander in the Aintree Hurdle last time, tries fences for the first time on Stratford's card.     

2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

Low-key jumping fare

The Flat takes centre stage this weekend with the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan and, a bit nearer to home, the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster.

The jumping fare on offer looks decidedly run-of-the-mill - I don't intend to play.

A few notes which may be of interest... The maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter has been split into two divisions - Raktiman looks to have decent claims in the first leg (1.55) but will be priced accordingly while Mabel Tasman might offer some each-way value against rivals from bigger yards in the second division (3.05). The mare appeared to run out of petrol (know the feeling?) at Wincanton the other day over two miles six; the slighlty shorter trip and better ground here should help.

At the same track...

Saint Luke (4.10) boasted some smart form last year, finishing twelfth behind Cheltenian in the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival bumper before finishing fifth behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree version. Unfortunately Peter Bowen's gelding has failed to reproduce that this season and with the stable out of form can't be considered.

The booking of McCoy for H'ella Petite in the mares' bumper (5.15) catches the eye.

Ruby Walsh rides two for Paul Nicholls (Balding Banker 3.05 and Tonic Mellysse 3.40) before dashing off to Stratford to partner Whisky Yankee in their finale. Previous winner Kings Lad has a penalty to carry - the hint may be worth taking.

At Ascot on Sunday I'll monitor Orthodox Lad's running in the 3.30 - I'm not sure whether this one is under-rated or not. There's no denying he was run off his feet in the Adonis at Kempton but he will appreciate the quicker ground.

In the concluding hunters' chase Master Medic would be worth a second look if the tissue price of 5/1 becomes available.

Finally, for those who wish to place wagers on runners with tenuous connections to rock & heavy metal music, Rockin' Horse Racing Tips may just be the site you've been waiting for... ;)           

Weekend snippets

Jumps racing is a tough old game and I'm guessing the hope of discovering that one special horse is what keeps trainers such as Robin Dickin getting up every morning. I expect there are a few false dawns along the way but when the real deal turns up, you'll be able to spot it quickly enough. Robin Dickin's emotional interview after Restless Harry had beaten Fair Along 20 lengths in Wetherby's John Smith's Hurdle yesterday told us his search is over. Of prime importance now is to do right by the  horse; I'm sure Mr Dickin will not be found wanting in that sphere. A novice chase campaign looks on the cards but you can't help wondering whether connections might be tempted by a stab at the World Hurdle next March; this evening Ladbrokes quote Harry 33/1 for the RSA Chase, bet365 the same price for the World Hurdle.

In the past the aptly-named Restless Harry hasn't travelled long distances very well but he was as good as gold on Saturday; connections took a Shetland pony along to accompany the stable star and that appears to have done the trick...

It was good to see Time For Rupert back on form in the Charlie Hall. Although Paul Webber's charge was beaten three and a half lengths by Weird Al, connections were delighted with the performance and have indicated they will consider Haydock's Betfair Chase as his next target.

On the other hand connections of Charlie Hall winner Weird Al are reluctant to commit to the Hennessy. Weird Al has had his problems, a comment that also applies to Diamond Harry who was market leader for the race on Saturday morning before being withdrawn after he was found lame.

Ordinarily you might struggle to find common ground between the British Horseracing Authority and the Church of England but in recent weeks both organisations have managed to preside over something of a public relations disaster - the whip debate and the anti-capitalist demonstration outside St Paul's Cathedral.

On Saturday's Morning Line conditional jockey Stephen Clements (attached to Colin Tizzard's stable) named a couple to look out for - thing was he spoke so quickly, I had trouble understanding what he said! Oiseau De Nuit and Drybrook Bedouin were mentioned but Nick Luck appeared to indicate the latter had been reluctant to go to post in the past.

Finally, a result noted in the mares' maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter on Friday. 66/1 chance Justazippy beat 66/1 chance Prickles a head, 14 ran. The Straight Forecast paid 2068.29 while the Exacta paid 2413.50.
If only...

Talking horses

Carlton House was sent off 5/4 favourite for the Irish Derby earlier today but The Queen's colt could only finish fourth, Aidan O'Brien training the first three home - Treasure Beach (7/2) beat stablemates Seville (5/1) and Memphis Tennessee (10/1) to give the Irish handler his ninth victory in the race. This evening Paddy Power bet on the Ladbrokes St Leger as follows: 3/1 Nathaniel, 5/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Sea Moon, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Seville.

I was out and about Saturday lunchtime when I received a phone call from a fellow racegoer I see at the races once or twice a year. He'd had a word from one of the owners of Misty Conquest who was due to run in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket. 14 had been declared but at the time of the call one had been withdrawn; Tom Dascombe's filly had been priced up 5/1 second favourite in a couple of the morning papers. Six furlong sprints aren't my cup of tea and a few in the field looked well fancied, including Queen's Revenge and My Propeller, owned by Newcastle footballer Joey Barton; last time out this one had won a six furlong Pontefract madien by an astonishing 17 lengths. After some consideration I decided not to play. When Channel 4 showed the race preliminaries, another two had fallen by the wayside (including My Propeller) and Misty Conquest was priced at 10/1. In the event, she knew her job, broke well, led to half way, eventually coming home third; she had no answer to the strong challenge of Lily's Angel (6/1) who won a shade more cosily than the distances might suggest and looks a smart prospect.

The Jamie Snowden trained 11-year-old Knighton Combe took this afternoon renewal of Uttoxeter's English Summer National at odds of 16/1.

Martin Waller (Tempus) penned an interesting piece in Saturday's Times under the headline 'No such thing as a dead cert for investors in online gaming'. Betfair is shortly set to release its first set of annual figures since the company's flotation; shares issued at £13 last autumn were worth just £7.43 at close of business on Friday evening.

Finally Will Hayler's blog in Saturday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4 presenter Lesley Graham's attempt to generate more interest in her nine bedroom Newmarket mansion which she is looking to sell following the collapse of her marriage to Neil;  a piece appeared in the property section of Wednesday's London Evening Standard. Back in March A.P. McCoy's house was on the market for £2.5 million but unfortunately the property was sold before I could arrange a meeting with my mortgage adviser. By comparison Ms Graham's pad looks a snip at just £1.4 million but I won't bother trying to contact my adviser as I happen to know he's on holdiay for a fortnight...   

Northumberland Plate 2011

Prior to last year's running of the Northumberland Plate I wrote:

"Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not..."

Twelve months on, perhaps there is something of a trend.... Last year's Plate winner Overturn took this year's Chester Cup while Veiled won the Ascot Stakes and Swingkeel the Queen Alexandra Stakes, all horses with jumps form in the book. Digging a little deeper, I discovered that between the years 1994 and 2001, no winner of the Pitmen's Derby had previously run over the sticks; from 2002 onwards, five of the subsequent nine winners had National Hunt form (Bangalore 2002, Unleash 2003, Mirjan 2004, Arc Bleu 2008 and Overturn 2010).

Regular readers will know that this Flat term I'm trying to focus on horses with jumps form racing over more than one and a half miles; two Royal Ascot winners last week were supplemented by My Arch (8/1) taking the Pontefract Cup on Sunday while Kavaloti (11/10f) collected a class 6 handicap on the all-weather at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

The horses with jumps form declared for Newcastle's Northumberland Plate tomorrow are Overturn, Investissement, La Vecchia Scuola and first reserve Crackentorp who may yet line up as Her Majesty's horse, Tactitian, is rated doubtful this evening. Although this is a two mile race, a low draw is seen as important - in the past decade four winners have raced out of a stall numbered higher than nine, with Eddie Ahern performing miracles last year on Overturn who broke from stall 21. Donald McCain's charge missed last weeks' Queen Alexandra Stakes on account of the ground, has a plum draw in stall two but is rated thirteen pounds higher this year - Henry Brooke can claim five. It's worth noting that only one horse has carried more than 8-11 to victory in the last decade - Bangalore won with 9-5 in 2002. John Gosden's Investissement is another with a good draw (berth three) and looks interesting, having had this as his target for a while; previously with Evan Williams, the Singspiel gelding didn't take to hurdling, finishing tailed off in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jim Goldie trains bay mare La Vecchia Scuola who is another with a good draw (stall 4) but has been out of sorts since her second in last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket; on her last run over hurdles she finished over 30 lengths behind Quevega in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. My Arch took the Pontefract Cup on Sunday but is drawn widest of all in stall 22 while Tim Easterby's Crackentorp finished third behind the useful Storm Brig in a Newcastle novice hurdle last November.

Of the other runners, Activate's Haydock win last month catches the eye, with Swingkeel (sixth) and My Arch (seventh) both having won since - Deauville Flyer, another from Tim Easterby's yard, was fourth that day, suffering interference in running around two furlongs out, and probably represents that trainer's best chance.

Almost all layers offer a quarter the odds four places - in a very competitive affair I'll take an each-way interest in Investissement at around 9/1.

I haven't done any work on Sunday's cards but I'll look closely at my Epsom Derby selection Native Khan who goes in the Irish Derby. Writing in the Weekender Kieren Fallon rates him overpriced at 8/1 and 'the logical each-way pick', while Nick Mordin selects the same horse as he sees favourite Carlton House 'vulnerable off a quick return because he's still immature'.

On the same day but changing codes, 18 have been declared for the English Summer National run over three and half miles at Uttoxeter. I prefer a young horse for this one and will do some homework on Eoin Griffin's The Last Derby who was third in the Cork National last October and sixth in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in April.

Digestives

A good weekend for the Coolmore operation with Aidan O'Brien's son Jospeh claiming his first Classic winner aboard Roderic O'Connor in yesterday's Irish 2000 Guineas while earlier this afternoon Misty For Me took the Irish 1000 Guineas. This evening William Hill is best-priced about both horses for Epsom - Roderic O'Connor is quoted at 20/1 for the Derby and Misty For Me 10/1 for the Oaks.

There was plenty of media hype surrounding Hungarian sprinter Overdose, aka the Budapest Bullet, and his attempt on Haydock's Temple Stakes. In the event the Bullet proved to be a blank, trailling home a disappointing seventh. After the race pilot Andreas Suborics indicated the horse may appreciate more give underfoot following his recent training problems.

Plenty think Carlton House is something of a shoo-in for the Derby. Generally the market has proved a very good guide to the race (no winner priced bigger than 7/1 in the past decade) and the right vibes have been coming out of the stable. Nevertheless, three reasons to be wary...This year's Dante was a muddling affair with the time (2m 13.49) over three seconds slower than the Middleton Stakes (2m 10.05) run half an hour earlier; the colt isn't guaranteed to stay; the current price offers little in the way of value.

Many years ago an acquaintance of mine described our sport as 'a game of regrets', pointing out that even when you've lucky enough to have backed a winner, you're somehow troubled by the fact you hadn't increased your stake money. Last week my particular regret was not to have chanced Moorlands Jack on his first try over hurdles at Uttoxeter. In a Weekender Stable Tour article last September handler Tim Vaughan was particularly sweet on the (then) unraced  five-year-old, commenting the bay gelding would be 'speedy enough to win first time out'. Two below par efforts in bumpers didn't look encouraging going into the Uttoxeter race but the trainer's faith wasn't misplaced as 20/1 chance Moorlands Jack won despite being less than fluent at a couple of his hurdles. I'll monitor progress with interest. Others worth a second look if appearing in the foreseeable future include recent Perth winner Lewlaur Supreme, David Pipe's bumper winners Swing Bowler and Barney Cool and Paul Webber's Monkey Milan who took a Towcester bumper - jock Denis O'Regan was reported keen not to use the whip on this rather green five-year-old.

Finally, where's the value? £50 million for Chelsea footballer Fernando Torres or £53 million for Waterstone's 300 High Street bookstores?          
 

Midlands Grand National 2011

After Long Run's historic win at Cheltenham earlier today, the racing roadshow moves on with the Midlands Grand National the feature at Uttoxeter tomorrow. 18 runners face the starter where the going is described as soft, good to soft in places. I'm guessing the ground will be pretty tacky as it has been drying out for a few days now. Top weight Synchronised won this last year but carries another seven pounds on this occasion and has to give a minimum of 13 pounds to the rest of the field - it looks a big ask. Synchronised's victory apart, in the previous eight runnings the biggest weight the winner has shouldered is 10-9; half the field have to carry more than their allotted handicap weight but in 2002 The Bunny Boiler was nine pounds out of the handicap when winning at odds of 5/1. Paul Nicholls' Tricky Trickster has had a breathing operation since we last saw him in November and has the Aintree National as his target. Companero took the Eider at Newcastle three short weeks ago in atrocious ground (Belon Gale and Ballyfoy pulled up) - he's 11 now and may not have had sufficient time to recover. I like Richard Lee's diminutive gelding Le Beau Bai; ideally he needs more rain in the ground and does find himself getting detached in his races but at 12/1 with Skybet he's worth an each-way wager in a difficult-looking event - the majority of layers are offering a quarter the odds four places.

Some short snippets...

Harry Findlay's successful appeal on Wednesday has received plenty of press coverage this week - Greg Wood argued for a change in the BHA rule book in Friday's Guardian. Meanwhile the exchange operator Findlay used to lay his own horses, Betfair, appears to be considering a stock market flotation in the autumn which could value the group in the region of £1.5 billion. Saturday's Times reported that the two founders, Ed Wray and Andrew 'Bert' Black, will share a paper fortune of £375 million if the float goes ahead. Betfair is the world's biggest betting exchange with over three million customers in 140 different countries.

In future 'Bert' Black is likely to pump some of that money into Manor House Stables where Tom Dascombe trains a number of horses for Michael Owen. However it was trainer Tim Vaughan who provided Owen with his first double as an owner when Paddy Partridge and Holoko Heights took the opening two races on the card at Uttoxeter on Wednesday.

It looks as though trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies intends to try and keep the Plates spinning. Grand Slam Hero won the Summer Plate at Market Rasen yesterday and connections have indicated they now have the Galway Plate on July 28th in their sights. Bet365 still offer 16/1 this evening but William Hill go 10/1.

In the world of golf, congratulations go to the new Open Champion, Louis Oosthuizen. Mrs Tips reports Clare Balding saying on radio a racing acquaintance of hers had backed the winner at odds of 480/1. I wonder who that might be...

Finally, a quip from Johnny Vegas in a 60 seconds interview that appeared in a recent edition of Star magazine. Asked if he'd ever cheated on anyone, Vegas replied: "I have never cheated on anyone, certainly not in a relationship. I cheated on my dad when I said I put bet on for him, but I kept the money. That was 20 years ago." Of course, had the horse come in, he could simply have gone back to his father and handed over the stake, saying he forgot to put the bet on. Such an honest gesture from one so young may well have prevented the probable parental thrashing that loomed ahead. However, if the young Vegas had already spent his dad's stake money on several bags of sweets, then the only sensible course of action would have been to stuff an old exercise book down the back of his pants. Ah, the good old days - where did it all go wrong?

Midlands Grand National anyone?

After a bookies' week at Cheltenham (review to follow in a separate post), there's the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter tomorrow for those with any cash left. Somebody who should have plenty of fifties in his back pocket is Nigel Twiston-Davies after the yard finished the last day of this year's Festival with a 748/1 treble courtesy of Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup (7/1), Baby Run, ridden by son Sam Twiston-Davies, in the Foxhunter Chase (9/2jf) and Pigeon Island in the finale (16/1). With the stable in such fine form, I had this idea to back one of theirs in the Uttoxeter feature but guess what - they don't have one entered.

Eighteen have been declared; the going is currently described as good, good-to-soft in places, but the way the rain is falling in Coventry at the moment I'm guessing it'll ride soft on the day. In the last ten years the race has been run eight times with the winner never carrying more than ten stones nine and on each occasion being aged between seven and nine. Of the eighteen, the four I've concentrated on are the Philip Hobbs pair Ballydub and Mark The Book, Sherwoods Folly and Irish raider Inoma James. Hobbs, in fine form at the Festival, fields three, the other one being Kornati Kid who is highly regarded but didn't appear to take the preliminaries at all well in the Welsh National the last time - his chance had gone before the start. The trainer picks out Ballydub in first time blinkers as his pick of the three. Sherwoods Folly has had a decent break coming to this and makes some appeal off a light weight while the chance of Inoma James is more obvious - he won the Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January on heavy ground. Irish-trained runners have a good record in this race, having won three times since 2002 - I'll take an each-way interest in Inoma James at around 9/1.

Of those near the head of the handicap Le Beau Bai looks on the small side for a big weight while Synchronised was declared for the four mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival on Wednesday but was then withdrawn, presumably on account of the ground; underfoot conditions will be more to his liking here.

Newbury on Saturday

The Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes run over a mile is the highlight on tomorrow's Newbury card. Most tipsters have put up Paco Boy who proved he stayed the trip when winning with something in hand at Sandown last time out. That day Dream Eater and Virtual finished second and third and are on six pounds worse terms here. The underfoot conditions will suit Paco Boy but could stretch his suspect stamina while Dream Eater may be better on better ground. On handicap ratings Paco Boy is well ahead of his rivals but this evening his price is drifting on the back of the stamina worries. I've decided to look for something bigger each-way and the two that have caught my eye are the Peter Chapple-Hyam pair, Tariq and Winker Watson. Last July Winker Watson was beaten less than four lengths by Henrythenavigator in the Sussex at Goodwood, with Tariq a further six lengths behind that day. The fact that Winker is priced up at 40/1 for tomorrow's race tells you things haven't gone to plan since. Andrew 'Bert' Black owns a share and reported on his blog that Winker has worked well on the gallops; having said that, the horse disappointed badly at Warwick last time out for no apparent reason. Subsequently I heard Chapple-Hyam saying the horse had a mind of his own these days; he was considering blinkers (not applied tomorrow), and if they didn't work, scissors. This quote was taken from the trainer's web site earlier today: "I'm just hoping that Winker can reproduce his home work at the track. He has been working well." Stablemate Tariq is priced around the 16/1 mark and was third in this last year, three quarters of a length and a neck behind Creachadoir and Phoenix Tower; of this charge the trainer states: "Tariq has really started to come to himself in the last week or so and I am happy with him. He won’t mind the rain that Newbury has had." I haven't given up on Winker Watson - 40/1 would look silly if the horse put his best foot forward - but the percentage call has to be an each-way interest in Tariq. Twice Over has received treatment for a corn on his foot and connections will make a final decision on his participation on Saturday morning.

Geordieland has been re-routed to the Aon Stakes (2.05) after missing the Yorkshire Cup earlier today on account of the going. There must a fair chance he'll miss this as well if significant rain falls overnight. I'm tempted to take a chance on an old favourite of mine, Yellowstone, on his first appearance for the Paul Cole yard. He's the Racing Post top-rated, will handle the ground although obviously I'm taking fitness on trust.

For those who can't bear the thought of watching the Eurovision Song Contest, Uttoxeter offers alternative entertainment with its 'James Bond Evening' (whatever that might entail). Prowling through the runners for an appropriate bet I considered Doctor Foxtrot, Stayclosetome, Midnight Diamond, Classic Chic and Sapphire Night but in the end had to go for Great Hero in the finale.

Wedding day winners?

I have to go to a family wedding in Herefordshire tomorrow; as old age creeps up on me, in my mind I've found the terms Schadenfreude and weddings become ever more closely associated... What I tend to do on occasions such as this is go through the runners the night before, looking for names of horses with wedding day connotations and then, if asked, suggest to interested guests they bet those particular beasts. You won't be surprised to learn that over a ten year period the wedding day selections have performed much better than the selections I make using my normal methods. Mrs Tips and I have quickly perused tomorrow's runners at Doncaster and Kempton - Mrs T. likes Quiet Elegance, Bond Together, Grand Passion, Hearts Of Fire and Could It Be Magic while I much prefer Don't Panic, Against The Grain, Outrageous Request and Pullyourfingerout (those are the ones I was allowed to publish).

It's the first day of the Flat tomorrow. The highlight is the Lincoln at 3.55 which, as usual, has the look of a bookmakers' benefit. A decision on the participation of ante-post favourite Expresso Star is unlikely to be made before trainer John Gosden has walked the course. Earlier in the week the Racing Post informed us the layers were being kept awake at night worrying about this Expresso Star; now it's looking even money he'll run. I'm steering well clear.

It may be the opening day of the Flat but the big name jocks are riding at the Dubai World Cup fixture. If you fancy a flutter I recommend using Nick Mordin's analysis in the Weekender as a starting point; Nick is particularly bullish about Casino Drive and correspondingly negative about the opponents he faces in the Dubai World Cup due off at 5.30.

If I can find a betting shop in the local High Street, I'll cut away from the festivities for five minutes and stick a fiver on something at Uttoxeter or Lingfield. Tomorrow's meet at Uttoxeter is billed as 'Lambrini Classic Raceday' - make of that what you will - Scutch Mill gets the nod in the seller. Paul Nicholls is usually complimetary about his charges but this evening on Teletext he's not particularly complimentary about Predateur in the 3.45; I'll look to oppose the likely favourite, although making a case for any of the others looks hard work. The market says Sandhurst but Personal Column should handle the ground, has run in better class races and will offer some value against the front two.

Lodge Lane has been chalked up favourite for the 4.00 at Lingfield and would win if at his best but he's been nowhere near recently, pulling up on the last two occasions; connections try blinkers for the first time. Charlie Mann's Fair Point had a hard enough race in the Festival four miler so comes with reservations but makes more appeal than King Jack on his first outing over the larger obstacles. Quickbeam ran an awful race at Wincanton so I'll chance Lucy Wadham's Backbord to win my hotel bar expenses in what looks a rather trappy event.

Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter

Those who like a challenge (and have money left over after the Cheltenham Festival) may want to consider the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter; the starter is scheduled to send them on their way at 3.10. Twenty are set to go to post but with underfoot conditions on the soft side at least three are expected to be withdrawn - Alderburn, Dom D'Orgeval and and Martha's Kinsman. Over the years Irish runners have fared particularly well in this race so it's no surprise to see Jessica Harrington's Badgerlaw priced up as favourite with Hold The Pin and Operation Houdini also holding prominent positions in the betting; in the past eight renewals, the winner has come from the front two in the market on five occasions. I've been on the lookout for a home-based runner with a weight under eleven stones. Neither Appleaday nor Kilcrea Asla is guaranteed to stay the distance; the booking of Barry Geraghty for Gidam Gidam catches the eye but there's a suspicion the horse may prefer better ground. Companero looks like a horse who will be suited by soft ground and will stay all day - he's reluctantly passed over as he's just a little too high in the handicap for my liking, so I'll probably take an each-way chance with Flintoff who runs some good races and some bad. Owned by Andrew Flintoff and Paul Beck, he comes to this fresh and hails from a stable that is in fine form at the moment. The amateur rider takes off a handy-looking five pounds - the selection is currently priced at 16/1 with William Hill.

In the 3.40 Fiendish Flame is likely to go off favourite and try to make all but that will be no easy task with top weight on soft ground; jockey A P Lane claims three. Kadouchski is bang there on RP ratings yet is priced up at 14/1 with bet365; it's easy to forgive his last run as he probably didn't stay the two miles four furlongs at Sandown and in any case was beaten by a horse called Silk Affair which won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham on Wednesday. Having just written that, I'm going to go away and do a bit more work on that race...

In the 4.10 Ogee, formerly with Sir Michael Stoute on the Flat, is likely to go off favourite. He's a decent benchmark but has plenty of miles on the clock; preference is for Nicky Henderson's Acordeon.

Weekend action

Twenty go to post in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle tomorrow; several in the field ran at Ascot last week and, generally, Ascot runners have a good record in this. Nonetheless a few appeared to have a hard race, including Bukit Tinggi who has been kept busy this season. The draw can play an important part even though the race is over two miles; I tend to favour low numbered runners as they can hold a handy position more easily. Two that catch my eye and should handle the likely cut in the ground are Highland Legacy and Tilt. Both come to this fresh having run in the Chester Cup where Tilt, finishing third at level weights, came out on top. I think the pair are closely matched again but take the view that Highland Legacy didn't quite see out the two miles two furlong trip and, drawn in stall two here, can reverse the form giving Tilt, less favourably drawn in berth eleven, two pounds.

On Sunday it would be easy to miss the English Summer National run over four miles at Uttoxeter. Grand National fifth Philson Run, no spring chicken at the age of twelve, would have been a sporting each-way bet had the ground come up on the slow side but the forecast going (good to firm) makes me think a few of these will have a bit too much pace for the old-timer.

The Irish Derby at the Curragh, also on Sunday, looks fascinating with several runners from the English version choosing to try their luck again. Dermot Weld, trainer of Casual Conquest, has said that he doesn't think his horse can now find the five lengths he was beaten last time when finishing third. The race would appear to be between the first two at Epsom, New Approach and Tartan Bearer, and, unsurprisingly, the official ratings confirm that view. I know a few commentators felt the race at Epsom developed into something of a sprint up the home straight; I'm not brave enough to oppose New Approach so will maintain a watching brief but for those who are, Tartan Bearer looks the value.