Sandown segue

What were the chances of this then?

First post of the new decade and I'm talking about, er, Cheltenham.

In the very first race on New Year's Day the stewards controversially disqualified first past the post Protektorat and declared the second, Imperial Alcazar, the winner; one imagines Sir Alex Ferguson, part owner of Protektorat, would not have been amused. Dan and Harry Skelton certainly weren't - the trainer told the Racing Post the decision had ruined his trip to Disneyland and an appeal can be expected. 

A little over an hour later Champ took a crashing fall two from home in the Dipper; connections have been forced back to the drawing board. The Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot next month is a possibility but Nicky Henderson's charge remains the clear 7/2 favourite in ante-post markets for the RSA come March.

That's twice Champ has raced at Cheltenham and twice he has come back beaten - he finished second to City Island in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle last March.

I'd be the first to admit the eyesight isn't what it used to be but when Nicky Henderson told reporters that up to that fateful encounter with the penultimate flight it was the best he'd seen the horse jump, well, I nearly fell in a heap of my own. To my mind some jumps were good but others less so and Richard Hoiles said as much in commentary. Watch this space as they say.

The Tolworth Hurdle (2.25) is the highlight on the card at Sandown tomorrow while the Veterans' Handicap Chase (3.00) is being run in memory of Houblon Des Obeaux who suffered a heart attack here in the London National last month.

I've spent my preparation time looking at the Read Nico De Boinville's Unibet Blog Handicap Hurdle at 3.35; the going on the hurdle track is described as soft, heavy in places.

Nico De Boinville is booked to ride market leader Gunnery so, taking the advice proffered by the race title, I've taken a quick peek at Nico's blog. Rated 90 on the Flat, Gunnery may well appear well handicapped allocated a hurdle rating of 121; he won a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Doncaster six days ago but, that said, tomorrow's race looks far more competitive.

Often displaying a tendency to pull hard, Gunnery raced from the front at Doncaster; he's likely to face competition for the lead tomorrow with Totterdown another who likes to front run. Sent off an even money shot on his debut for the Fergal O'Brien yard in November, Totterdown ran his rivals ragged over course and distance.

A listed race here last month ties in a couple of tomorrow's runners. Mack The Man beat Protektorat (see above) with Smarty Wild fourth, Ruacana fifth and Distingo sixth. The handicapper has since tinkered with the weights but with less than five lengths covering the trio you might expect the layers' prices to be far closer - this evening Smarty Wild is quoted 13/2, Distingo 16/1 and Ruacana 20/1.

Distingo is of most interest - from Gary Moore's Straight from the Stable tour in the Weekender 16-20.01.19:

"We thought a lot of this horse last season and he hasn't quite delivered yet." 

The gelding's third behind Jolly's Cracked It (November 2018) reads well and if he can build on his most recent effort, 16/1 looks value.

I'm prepared to oppose the four runners who have been off the track for some considerable time - Colin Tizzard's two course and distance winners Eldorado Allen (392 days) and Ainchea (700 days); Mill Green (262 days but supported in the market this evening); and Remiluc (643 days).

It seems barely believable that John Constable won the Market Rasen Summer Hurdle off a mark of 150 in 2017, and the following December, off a mark of 156, finished four and a half lengths adrift of My Tent Or Yours in the International Hurdle.

You don't need me to tell you it has been downhill since.

Without holding my breath, I've been waiting for any small sign of revival from Evan Williams' charge who starts tomorrow's race off 127 - and trainer's daughter Isabel can claim a further seven. His latest effort at Cheltenham last month was the first sign of an improvement in form.

On his seasonal debut Blu Cavalier was soundly beaten in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot but three weeks later he came out and won well at Doncaster. The handicapper has raised him four pounds for that effort but my reading of the form is the pilot that day, Jonjo O'Neill Jr, was unable to claim whereas tomorrow Ben Jones (also known as 'Jones the Jockey' in our house) can claim five so, in effect, he's one pound better off.

Last February Ali Stronge's ten-year-old finished third in the Betfair Hurdle at Ascot behind Al Dancer and Magic Dancer; that form reads well but a ten-year-old hasn't won this in the past ten years.

On balance I prefer Blu Cavalier's profile to that of Distingo. Sky Bet offer 11/1 and pay one fifth the odds four places; Blu Cavalier is the each-way selection.

The Veterans' Chase Final at Sandown

Small fields for the most part at Sandown tomorrow.

Ed Chamberlin won't be the only one desperate to see the Irish-trained mare Laurina, currently as low as 7/2 with several layers for the Champion Hurdle, make her seasonal debut at 1.50. She faces just three opponents.

Thirty five minutes later six face the starter for the Tolworth. Seven days ago at Newbury the Challow turned into something of a tactical affair; here both Elixir De Nutz and Southfield Stone have made all previously so, hopefully, we'll see a truly run race.

By contrast seventeen runners have been declared for the Veterans' Handicap Chase at 3.00. 

Those looking for an unexposed type in this sort of race might usually expect to have their work cut out but market leader Rock Gone has relatively low mileage on the clock with just six chase starts to his name; he has never won over this trip.

Sam Twiston-Davies rides for Dr Richard Newland and I'm assuming Sam has chosen Rock Gone, having also ridden the favourite's stablemate Band Of Blood when fourth behind Cultram Abbey at Kelso last month. 

Cultram Abbey was raised five pounds for that effort but he looked good. He has done a lot of his racing around Perth and Carlisle.

Charlie Longsdon saddles Pete The Feat and Loose Chips who finished first and third respectively in the 2017 renewal; both clearly love it around here and hold each-way chances.

Aged 15, the former is the oldest runner in the race while the latter beat Rock Gone over this course and distance in November (Rathlin Rose fourth, Pete The Feat seventh, Tenor Nivernais ninth and Theatre Guide tenth) and now meets the second eight pounds worse off.

Rathlin Rose would be expected to come on for that fourth behind Loose Chips on his seasonal debut and has also been dropped two pounds to a mark of 130. Last March Rathlin Rose won at Ascot off 128 with Houblon Des Obeaux third, Loose Chips fourth and Band Of Blood fifth.

Buywise came home in front last year (Pete The Feat second, Loose Chips fifth and Houblon Des Obeaux sixth) but he has always been a horse that takes at least one liberty at the obstacles in his races.

With the covers down and the going on the chase track currently described as good to soft, soft in places, good in places on the back straight, underfoot conditions may not be quite as testing as in some previous years. 

Course and distance winner Le Reve is likely to appreciate better ground and that comment may also apply to top weight Exitas and Houblon Des Obeaux who appeared to get stuck in the mud behind Daklondike at Haydock last time. Although apparently unfancied in the market, Venetia Williams' charge is there with every chance on Racing Post ratings and the stable is in very good form.

Henlan Harri likes it here, will appreciate the better ground and has gone well after a layoff in the past but the stable hasn't had a winner for 24 days.

A wide open event and, of course, it's possible to make a case for several in the field. 

I'm tempted by Band Of Blood who should certainly finish closer to Cultram Abbey but Sam Twiston-Davies is clearly keen on Rock Gone so I'm going to take an each-way interest in Houblon Des Obeaux, sixth in this race last year off 143, beaten under 12 lengths. Paddy Power offer 20/1 and pay one fifth the odds six places.

A quick footnote on Plumpton's card on Sunday. The novice chase at 1.10 should prove highly informative while my New Year's Day each-way selection Big Meadow tries again in the Sussex National after unseating at the first at Exeter. Richard Johnson rides but the drying ground is still the negative.

Sandown veterans

I've been on the lookout for a young unexposed type in the 32Red Veterans' Handicap Chase at Sandown tomorrow but haven't had that much luck... Aerial from the Nicholls yard has the fewest miles on the clock with five wins recorded from nineteen runs.

These vets, they're an absolute credit to the game.

Top weight Shuil Royale boasts the best career wins-to-runs ratio in the field at 30.3% while just three record a figure lower than 15%; in 2011 Cody Wyoming won a Lingfield maiden hurdle at odds of 100/1 and currently shows a profit of £86.45 to a £1.00 stake.

In fact twelve of the runners boast a profit to level stakes - if only they'd given me this list of horses eight years ago...

Of course, with over £100,000 in added prize money, tomorrow's renewal is highly competitive - Aachen, beaten a neck by Soll last year, tries once again at the grand old age of thirteen.

In working through the form, I've discarded the four horses that have not previously won over three miles or more (Astracad, Ericht, Baileys Concerto and Cody Wyoming) and have then looked at the Scotty Brand Veterans' Handicap Chase, the last qualifying leg of the series, run over 22 furlongs at Kelso in early December.

That day Gas Line Boy made most to beat Cloudy Too (second), Aerial (fourth), Wychwoods Brook (fifth) and Dynaste (seventh). Ratings for that race and tomorrow's are compared below:

Gas Line Boy          was 136  now 145
Cloudy Too             was 142  now 140
Aerial                      was 135  now 134
Wychwoods Brook was 132  now 130
Dynaste                  was 150  now 145

I'm not inclined to take the Kelso form too literally. Dynaste never turned up, Wychwoods Brook was making his seasonal debut and there's a possibility Brian Hughes may have pinched the race up front over a shorter trip on slightly better ground.

Of those named above, it's hard to be confident about Dynaste and he's short enough in the market (comments that apply to Rocky Creek too).

Wychwoods Brook has a Peter Marsh Chase to his name and jockey James Nixon can claim seven but he hasn't always been the cleanest of jumpers so the 2016 Peter Marsh Chase winner Cloudy Too (14/1 generally) is the each-way selection with Aerial feared. Rain would certainly help the selection -  most layers are paying a quarter the odds four places.

Capitaine is my idea of the Tolworth winner but the race makes little appeal as a betting medium.

Over at Wincanton, Oneida Trial, mentioned in last week's post, goes in the 1.30 but the price - 12/1 with Paddy Power - doesn't really tempt on what we know so far while Daryl Jacob has a word for Fortunate George in the 3.15; Daryl travels to the track from Sandown after riding Midnight Jazz in the mares' listed hurdle.

Three selections for Sandown's Tolworth meeting 2016

Quick picks from tomorrow's Sandown card...

Just five declared for the Tolworth Hurdle at 2.25. Willie Mullins sends over Yorkhill who at this stage wouldn't be the yard's leading light but he's likely to start a short-priced favourite.

Nicky Henderson boasts a good record in this event winning five of the last six renewals. Four weeks ago O O Seven beat stablemate Premier Bond (winner since) over course and distance; rated 145 and available at 4/1 generally, O O Seven represents a value wager against the favourite.

Welsh Shadow from Dan Skelton's yard isn't readily dismissed. Beaten by Yarnworth on his penultimate run, he improved next time to win a listed event at Haydock. Connections rate this one highly and have indicated there is 'more to come'.

2013 Tolworth winner Melodic Rendezvous reverts to handicap company in the finale; at 13/2 he has to be worth an interest.

Finally my favourite mare in training, Polly Peachum, goes in the mares' listed hurdle at 12.40.

Polly hasn't shown her very best form on heavy ground which is a concern but the shorter trip here may help. At the weights she's the best horse in the field; priced up at 4/1 with Paddy Power Polly Peachum represents a play against the Mullins-trained favourite Gitane Du Berlais.

Kempton's Tolworth Hurdle

Seven declared for tomorrow's re-arranged Tolworth at Kempton with layers marking up The Liquidator as favourite; trainer David Pipe is on record saying Sandown would probably have suited his charge better than this sharp track.

Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.

Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.

I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.

In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.

On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.

Good news and bad news...

The bad news first - Sandown's meeting tomorrow scheduled to feature the Tolworth Hurdle has been abandoned due to a waterlogged track.

The good news is that this morning Sprinter Sacre came through a crucial workout on the gallops and his heart-rate was reported as 'normal'.

Trainer Nicky Henderson hasn't ruled out a tilt at this year's Queen Mother Champion Chase; layers have re-introduced the horse into their betting at odds of 4/5.

Now, as we all know, there are no certainties with horses so this evening I'm wondering whether there's some value opposing the favourites in the Champion Chase ante-post market.

After defeat at the hands of Kid Cassidy in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham in November,  connections of Sire De Grugy (currently second favourite at around 7/2) stated they wouldn't go back to Prestbury Park as their charge was unsuited by the undulating track. Will they re-consider now?

Connections of Cue Card (6/1 in places) could be tempted back to two miles but the talk to date has been of a tilt at the Gold Cup.

So, in search of a value angle, I'm thinking of spending some time looking in more detail at the claims of  horses such as Benefficient, Somersby, Twinlight, Hidden Cyclone, Captain Conan, Kid Cassidy and Arvika Ligeonniere...

Good idea or a waste of time?

The Welsh Grand National, Clare Balding, Mr Little's Noisy Car and the Tolworth...

Originally Clare Balding was rostered to cover the Welsh National at Chepstow for the BBC so there's a certain irony in the fact that, due to mitigating circumstances, nine days on she fronts this year's renewal for her new employers at Channel 4.

Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.

Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.

It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...

18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.

Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.

The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.

The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in  River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.

I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.

Time for the Tolworth

Only five declared for the Tolworth at Sandown tomorrow; a big run can be expected from both Propsect Wells and Colour Squadron while Nicky Henderson's Captain Conan has some smart French form to his name and could be anything. January is usually a quiet month for the Nicholls yard and connections have admitted their decision to let Propsect Wells take his chance here was 'an afterthought'. Colour Squadron makes more appeal, with underfoot conditions likely to suit Philip Hobbs' charge. Colour Squadron (2/1 generally) is the selection.

Other very quick notes...

The Strawberry One (4/1 this evening) has just one pound to find with top-rated Kaffie (7/4) on official ratings in the opener. She is considered, although it's worth noting her wins to date have come on good ground or quicker.

Course and distance winner Dave's Dream looks overpriced at 9/1 in the 2.05 and should be thereabouts granted a decent round of jumping. He merits each-way support, with David Bass claiming a valuable three pounds.

Sandown's Tolworth meeting

Cheltenham went ahead today after surviving three (?) inspections. Tomorrow's Tolworth meeting at Sandown has to survive a 7.30 am inspection - 95% of the course isn't covered so it must be odds against racing. I've been hit by a particularly nasty dose of the manflu with the result that I'm bailing out here and now and going straight to bed (with a bottle of Johnnie Walker Black Label). I know this is the first post of the decade and I realise, dear reader, this lays me open to plenty of disrespect on your part - did I hear the term 'wuss' muttered in the background? Quite frankly, I have to say, I'm beyond caring...

Normal service to be resumed as soon as possible....

Sandown's Tolworth card

Should Sandown's card manage to beat the overnight frost, the highlight will be the Tolworth at 2.40. There are only six in the line-up which could result in a tactical affair and for this reason the race doesn't make that much appeal as a betting medium. Dee Ee Williams has a solid look and is the selection; for those choosing to oppose, I prefer Nicky Henderson's course and distance winner Clay Hollister to Mahonia who was a little disappointing when turned over at Cheltenham last time. Two quick notes - the favourite has won four of the last ten renewals and the Nicholls stable has a decent record in this having won with Breedsbreeze, Silverburn and Noland in recent years.

On official handicap ratings United is the top-rated animal by some margin in the opener. Returning from an eighteen month layoff the mare won well over this distance a fortnight ago at Haydock. There must be a fair chance she'll 'bounce' here as that looked a hard enough race; I'm tempted to chance Nicky Henderson's Shatabdi who has been novice chasing; she is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and son Sam takes the ride.

A couple of interesting runners in the two mile chase. J.P. McManus' Foreman is now with Jonjo O'Neill, Marodima used to be something of a talented tearaway when with Paul Nicholls and Nick Gifford's useful gelding Killaghy Castle makes a comeback having been off the track for 631 days. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on six of the last seven renewals. If I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in Hoo La Baloo at 12/1; Paul Nicholls' charge likes it around here, Nick Schofield takes off a handy-looking five pounds and the horse deserves to win a decent race. Having said all that, it's no surprise to see his stablemate Medicinal installed as favourite in the early tissue shows.

Helium carries a penalty but looks the one to beat in the 1.35.

Short snips

Warwick plays host to the three mile five furlong totesport.com Classic Chase on Saturday - interesting entries include Paul Nicholls' Trust Fund, Arnold Layne, Kilbeggan Blade and the Hennessy second Dream Alliance.

In the Grade Two Leamington Novices' Hurdle on the same card Peter Bowen has entered Challow Hurdle winner Souffleur; others to catch the eye include Carruthers, in whom Lord Oaksey owns a share, recent Cheltenham winner Hills Of Aran and Alan King's Nenuphar Collonges. It's a few years since I've been to this meeting but, as I write this, I'm certainly tempted...

Breedsbreeze's victory in the Tolworth Hurdle on Saturday served to highlight the current differences between owner Jim Lewis and Henrietta Knight, as Lydia Hislop points out in The Times. What a contrast from when Best Mate was winning three Gold Cups.

After being jocked off some decent looking rides over the Christmas period, leading conditional rider Paddy Merrigan went AWOL, but now looks to have rebuilt bridges with the Peter Bowen yard.

Sandown and Wincanton

The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown tomorrow looks an intriguing race. In the last ten years the winner has come from the first two in the betting on eight occasions. On both official handicap and Racing Post ratings Alsadaa is the top rated horse but the trainer has stated publicly she won't run him on testing ground. Deep Purple is unbeaten over hurdles but all the form is on good or faster ground. Breedsbreeze and Calgary Bay have something to find but will handle the ground, while Sir Harry Ormesher was beaten three and a half lengths into fourth by Deep Purple last time and could get closer here with conditions to suit. It's a close call but I'm going to take a chance on Deep Purple handling soft ground; connections clearly think he's something special.

The following handicap hurdle at 3.10 is very tricky but I'm considering an each way wager on Astarador at around 14/1, the horse having finished third in last year's Tolworth. He hasn't seen a racecourse for just under a year and has enough weight in this, but he will handle the ground and the stable are in good form.

Over at Wincanton course and distance winner Miss Mitch is clearly top-rated in the novice chase at 1.45. Henrietta Knight likes Olmeto Collonges but the stable are out of form; Miss Mitch gets the vote.

Sandown's Tolworth Hurdle

A good start to the new year for some punters with 125/1 shot Tioga Gold going in at Southwell on Tuesday and a 100/1 winner at Lingfield on Thursday. Not such a good start to the year for the Betfair customer who laid Tioga Gold in running at 1,000/1 to the sum of £40.

The big race at Sandown tomorrow is the Tolworth Hurdle; only seven go to post but it looks a fascinating renewal of a race where the market has proved a decent guide over the years.

Charlie Mann's My Turn Now is the Racing Post's top rated horse but there will be many who feel Paul Nicholls' Silverburn has the scope for improvement. On a line through Tagula Blue there wouldn't be much between the two horses and at the tissue prices available today My Turn Now, who will handle the ground and is a course and distance winner, looks the value.

Paul Webber's De Soto wears a tongue strap which is off putting with the ground riding soft / heavy; clearly though this horse is a class performer held in high regard http://www.paulwebberracing.com/News.htm

Perce Rock comes over from Ireland, looks unexposed and, with McCoy on board, is respected, as is Astarador. A trappy race in which I'm going to side with Irish raider Perce Rock.

I take Pauillac to win the the 1.00 race while Preacher Boy's third in the Hennessy looks good form to take into the 3.45.