Those Easter heebie-jeebies

I just don't quite know what it is but those post-Cheltenham pre-Aintree fixtures always give me with the heebie-jeebies... 

Earlier today Gigginstown House Stud racing manager Eddie O'Leary indicated Tiger Roll will miss the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Monday and travel over to contest the Betway Bowl at Aintree next Thursday.

As a result the Irish National weights have risen 11 pounds; Latest Exhibition is now set to carry 11-10.

I haven't looked at the race in any great detail but I thought the form of last month's Grand National Trial at Punchestown worth a bit of work.

The Big Dog advertised his chance winning the trial; rider Jamie Codd was all prepared to do his lowest weight for the best part of 17 years if Tiger Roll were to turn up and take his chance but that won't be necessary now.  

The mare Moyhenna met plenty of trouble in running yet finished third that day, just seven lengths behind The Big Dog. Previously she was beaten half a length by Augusta Gold at level weights over a shorter trip at Fairyhouse. 

Taking into account her rider's five pound allowance, she looks weighted to reverse placings with both The Big Dog and Augusta Gold yet at the time of writing she's chalked up a 25/1 chance. 

The reason for the layers' largesse?  Probably her latest run at the Cheltenham Festival - just 17 days ago - in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase; she didn't jump particularly well when fifth behind the likes of Colreevy, Elimay and Shattered Love.   

Roaring Bull was ninth in the Punchestown trial while Discordantly isn't immediately discounted, falling five from home when still in touch with the leaders. This one ran well to finish sixth in the Ultima at Cheltenham but again the worry is the same as with Moyhenna - have they had sufficient time to recover from those Festival exertions?

Another mare I thought worth a second look was the Thomas Mullins trained course and distance winner Court Maid. She has her fair share of weight but turns up fresh and this looks to have been her target.

This side of the Irish Sea, with just seven declared in the Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (2.05 Haydock) Chti Balko is of interest at around the 7/1 mark; Paul Kealy has highlighted his chance in the Weekender. 

Donald McCain's charge has a particular liking for Haydock, as the handler explained in a Straight from the Stable feature [RP Weekender 30.12.20 - 03.01.21]:

"It was great to see him win so easily recently when coming home by 26 lengths at Haydock over 2m on heavy ground. It was his third win at the track, a venue he loves and I would run him there all the time if there were enough races. I genuinely believe he is a 10lb better horse around there."   

After that race, jockey Theo Gillard said:

"Most of Chti Balko's best runs have been around here on bottomless ground. He goes round those bends like a motorbike." 

It would be unwise to put too much store by that win as most of his opponents failed to fire on the day; it will certainly be far more competitive tomorrow. 

Similarly, the gelding won't have his favoured heavy ground, the going currently being described as good to soft on the hurdle course.

And the formbook tells us he can't hope to reverse placings with Shantou Express on last month's Wetherby running (Da Vinci Hand fifth). 

All that said, he's top rated on Racing Post ratings and finished second in the 2018 renewal of this race, beaten just over three lengths trying to concede 25 pounds to stablemate William Of Orange. His record over this trip at the track reads three wins and one second from four runs.

Favourite Vision Du Puy bounced back to form at Stratford last time; the mare has been raised five pounds for that effort and was placed in a Wetherby mares' listed hurdle in 2019. Her price has drifted through the day.

Shantou Express has gone up six pounds for that Wetherby run last time and is feared most.

Sporting first-time cheekpieces Dino Velvet likes to come from off the pace, a style of running that is probably not best suited to this track.

Xcitations has been raised 10 pounds for his recent Fakenham win while Nordic Combined would have a shout on his very best form but has looked inconsistent this term. 

It looks the sort of wager to give even the most sanguine a dose of the heebie-jeebies... 

Chti Balko is the win selection, 7/1 with both Paddy Power and William Hill at the time of writing.  

Wine and horses, Cheltenham and Aintree

For reasons entirely beyond my control I have a commitment I'm obliged to keep on Friday evening this week and so, unfortunately, will be unable to post as usual.

Actually I've landed myself in a spot of rather hot water by making the sort of rudimentary mistake somebody like The Wine Tipster could only describe as 'a schoolboy error'.

Sent on a simple errand to purchase a bottle of Pouilly-Fuissé (Chardonnay grape, Burgundy), I've come back home with a bottle of Pouilly-Fumé (Sauvignon blanc grape, Loire Valley), seduced by the slighly cheaper price...

It's a case of Cheltenham withdrawal symptoms.

This year there are four weeks betwen Cheltenham and Aintree, with much of the focus now on the Grand National which is scheduled for 5:15 on Saturday 14th April.

Danny Cook had barely dismounted from Definitly Red after finishing sixth in the Gold Cup before connections indicated their charge would not be running in this year's National; the Aintree Bowl is the likely target. Anibale Fly's third in the same race looked a decent enough trial - he holds entries in both the English and Irish Nationals - while American (ninth) is entered up in just the Irish showpiece at Fairyhouse, due off at 5:00 on Monday 2nd April. 

Total Recall was set to finish nearer first than last when coming to grief four from home in the Gold Cup; in some lists he is now favourite for the Aintree spectacular. 

Whatever, we should all note Harry Fry's quote after this year's Gold Cup:

"In the conditions at Cheltenham it didn't matter whether you won, were placed, unplaced or didn't finish, you had a hard race."

On Wednesday Tiger Roll ran a good trial in the cross country race at Cheltenham, beating The Last Samuri (third) and Beeves (seventh) with Cause Of Causes and Saint Are amongst those pulled up; Cause Of Causes, second in last year's National, was reported stiff and sore after the race. Beeves was noted to have run well for a long way at odds of 50/1 and Rathvinden's victory in Tuesday's four miler also mertis a mention.

In other National news Sandy Thomson is struggling to get his stable star Seeyouatmidnight qualified for the race.
 
Back in January the trainer gave Full Jack a low-key preparation before sending the gelding out to win the  Edinburgh National Handicap at Musselburgh. I spot a similar low-key approach with Seeyouatmidnight (has previously beaten Bristol De Mai and finished third in the 2016 Scottish National) but unfortunately the weather has had its say in the matter. 

Seeyouatmidnight still needs to run in a chase to qualify for Aintree. 

Mr Thomson might have expected to find a suitable opportunity at Carlisle's re-arranged meeting on Sunday but there isn't one on the card so the horse travels to Newbury on Saturday instead for the Doom Bar Handicap Chase (3.50). The gelding has been off the track for a year less one day and has had a wind operation in the interim but nonetheless has still been tipped up for Aintree in the Weekender at odds of 33/1...

The trainer states:

"He must have a fighting chance in the National and could be thrown in off 149."
 
Tempted? 

Of course, the final word after any Festival has to go to the handicapper - Matt Brocklebank has provided a neat summary of ratings adjustments together with notes on selected runners.

In the meantime, in preparation for Friday night, I'm off to do some initial spadework on these handy wine cheat sheets...

Irish Grand National 2012

A very quick look at the Irish National...

A number of  runners appeared at Cheltenham last month, including:

Alfie Sherrin (pipped Fruity O'Rooney to take the JLT Speciality handicap chase) with Magnanimity sixth beaten just under 20 lengths but re-opposing here eight pounds better off;

Catch Me second behind Cape Tribulation in the Pertemps Final (handicap hurdle) with Prince Erik tenth - Prince Erik twelfth in this race last year;

Four Commanders third behind Teaforthree in the four mile amateur riders' race with Allee Garde coming to grief at the twelfth - Ruby Walsh rides Allee Garde;

Start Me Up fifth behind Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir;

Glam Gerry third behind Salut Flo in the Byrne Group Plate.

Amongst those returning for another stab are Western Charmer (second last year but looking a little out of sorts this time), The Last Derby (sixth), Deal Done (ninth) and Saddlers Storm (pulled up). Groody Hill appears to have been laid out for the race (beat Cross Appeal into third on penultimate start) and has the assistance of McCoy in the saddle while two worth a second look at a price are Some Target and Lion Na Bearnai.

Over the years I have been singularly unsuccessful in this race; on balance I prefer to go for something that comes to this relatively fresh rather than one that may have had a hard race at the Festival less than four weeks ago. Younger animals have tended to fare better than their older counterparts in recent years so Willie Mullins' Some Target (Paul Townend doing the steering) is put up as nothing more than a tentative each-way suggestion (25/1 William Hill / Coral).

Irish Grand National

Ordinarily I wouldn't look too closely at this twenty six runner handicap but I'm intrigued by the fact that this evening's Racing Post reports the ground at Fairyhouse to be drying out. The money has come by the bucket load for Royal County Star which means the bookmakers have been rushing for cover - the horse is currently the 9/2 favourite. Provided the rains don't arrive, I'll consider two each way shouts against the field; Noel Meade's Mattock Ranger, priced at 20/1 with Paddy Power, is a proven stayer, having won the Cork National over three and a half miles last November and another 20/1 shot, Sir Frederic, whose trainer has previously stated that better ground will suit his charge.