Last week's post on The Times' virtual medal table generated some interest, so I thought I'd follow up seven days on.
The supplement published with The Times on Thursday 26th July printed a virtual table for each day of the Olympics. At the close of business on Thursday August 2nd Team GB were predicted to have three gold medals whereas in actual fact they had five in the bag. If that advantage is maintained to the end of competition, Great Britain will finish with 21 golds, two more than predicted.
For those who may be interested in taking a position, I thought it would be useful to list the GB golds as predicted by The Times, starting from today.
Friday:
Kath Grainger / Anna Watkins, Women's double sculls
Saturday, predicted to be Team GB's best day:
Helen Jenkins, Triathlon
Men's Four, Rowing
Women's Team Pursuit, Cycling
Mo Farah, 10,000 metres
Sunday:
Ben Ainslie, Sailing
Monday:
Jason Kenny, Men's sprint cycling
Tuesday, predicted to be the second best day:
One of the Brownlee brothers, Triathlon
Victoria Pendleton, Cycling individual sprint
Sir Chris Hoy, Cycling keirin
Wednesday:
No golds
Thursday:
Savannah Marshall, Women's boxing
One other, not listed
Friday:
Sarah Stevenson (not selected on form)
Saturday:
Sprint canoeing x 2
One other not listed
Sunday:
No golds
You pays your money and takes your choice...
Personally I still think this looks a big ask, so instead I'll consider placing my money on Present To You in tomorrow's 2.35 at Newton Abbot.
The selection was beaten seven lengths by likely favourite Giant O'Murchu six days ago at Stratford over a distance just shy of two miles two furlongs. The shorter trip here appears in his favour, he now races on seven pounds better terms and connections have opted to try a visor for the first time. If the tissue price of 8/1 becomes available, David Bridgwater's charge looks reasonable each-way value.
Showing posts with label olympic games. Show all posts
Showing posts with label olympic games. Show all posts
Friday, August 03, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Layers and the Olympic games
With Galway and Glorious Goodwood (referred to as simply 'Glorious' in some quarters) next week, this weekend's racing action looks somewhat mundane, especially with anticipation building for the much-heralded start to the London 2012 Olympic Games...
Perhaps it's just me but over the past few days I sense bookmakers have started to smell some easy Olympic-sized pickings in the forthcoming fortnight and have been indulging in some Olympic games of their own - yesterday I swear I saw a tweet where a layer quoted 8/1 about James Bond to light the Olympic flame...
Olympic betting isn't something I have any experience of but by far the best article I've read in recent months was penned by The Times' Owen Slot back in early March. The Times, in conjunction with Infostrada Sports in Holland, created a virtual medal table using a database of form collated up to that point. In that virtual medal table, Great Britain finished fifth with 16 gold medals, four behind Germany in fourth and Russia in third. Now, the table hasn't factored in home advantage but, as Slot is keen to point out, the layers have.
Home advantage would need to be worth a notional 11% improvement in form for Great Britain to finish third with 21 golds - the tally at Beijing in 2008 was 19 when Team GB finished fourth.
Depending on your perception of the value of home advantage, you can make your plays... Skybet go 5/4 Great Britain to finish fourth, while the same firm offer 6/1 Team GB will finish fifth, a price that makes plenty of appeal to the more pessimistic amongst us; more persistent punters may also care to ask for a price about Germany finishing fourth.
A word of warning before you rush to part with your cash - that table was compiled on form as at 5th March 2012 and a lot has happened since. Slot's article 'Bookmakers banking on home advantage to boost medal tally' was published with the sub-header 'Leading layers ignore statistics to frame optimisitc market for Britain' (The Times, Monday March 5 2012, p59).
As I said earlier, generally I don't bet on the Olympics - if I succumb to temptation this time, I'll take 6/1 about GB to finish fifth in the medal table.
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Postscript added 28.07.12 @ 13:40
Supplement published with Thursday's Times (26.07.12) printed an updated virtual medal table - top five places shown below:
1. USA 39 gold, 21 silver, 28 bronze
2. CHINA 34 gold, 33 silver, 24 bronze
3. RUSSIA 20 gold, 30 silver, 32 bronze
4. GB 19 gold, 24 silver, 21 bronze
5. GERMANY 17 gold, 22 silver, 20 bronze.
Note that the comment added to this post by reader mrvp highlights a potentially better opportunity.
PG.
Perhaps it's just me but over the past few days I sense bookmakers have started to smell some easy Olympic-sized pickings in the forthcoming fortnight and have been indulging in some Olympic games of their own - yesterday I swear I saw a tweet where a layer quoted 8/1 about James Bond to light the Olympic flame...
Olympic betting isn't something I have any experience of but by far the best article I've read in recent months was penned by The Times' Owen Slot back in early March. The Times, in conjunction with Infostrada Sports in Holland, created a virtual medal table using a database of form collated up to that point. In that virtual medal table, Great Britain finished fifth with 16 gold medals, four behind Germany in fourth and Russia in third. Now, the table hasn't factored in home advantage but, as Slot is keen to point out, the layers have.
Home advantage would need to be worth a notional 11% improvement in form for Great Britain to finish third with 21 golds - the tally at Beijing in 2008 was 19 when Team GB finished fourth.
Depending on your perception of the value of home advantage, you can make your plays... Skybet go 5/4 Great Britain to finish fourth, while the same firm offer 6/1 Team GB will finish fifth, a price that makes plenty of appeal to the more pessimistic amongst us; more persistent punters may also care to ask for a price about Germany finishing fourth.
A word of warning before you rush to part with your cash - that table was compiled on form as at 5th March 2012 and a lot has happened since. Slot's article 'Bookmakers banking on home advantage to boost medal tally' was published with the sub-header 'Leading layers ignore statistics to frame optimisitc market for Britain' (The Times, Monday March 5 2012, p59).
As I said earlier, generally I don't bet on the Olympics - if I succumb to temptation this time, I'll take 6/1 about GB to finish fifth in the medal table.
------------------------
Postscript added 28.07.12 @ 13:40
Supplement published with Thursday's Times (26.07.12) printed an updated virtual medal table - top five places shown below:
1. USA 39 gold, 21 silver, 28 bronze
2. CHINA 34 gold, 33 silver, 24 bronze
3. RUSSIA 20 gold, 30 silver, 32 bronze
4. GB 19 gold, 24 silver, 21 bronze
5. GERMANY 17 gold, 22 silver, 20 bronze.
Note that the comment added to this post by reader mrvp highlights a potentially better opportunity.
PG.
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