Champ for the Challow?

As there are just seven declared, I've spent most of this afternoon trying to come up with one to turn over Champ in the Challow (Newbury 3.00) and, to be honest with you, I'm beginning to think my time would have been more productively spent sat in a five mile tailback on the M1.

On Racing Post ratings market leader Champ has a minimum of ten pounds in hand over his rivals. In the past decade the favourite has come home in front on five occasions.

Champ's course and distance win in a handicap hurdle on soft ground here four weeks ago sets a high standard and his opponents will need to show improvement to be competitive. Still, he didn't look the easiest of rides last time, pulling his way to the front after five flights and staying on dourly at the head of affairs. Conditions are likely to be a little less testing tomorrow.

Connections clearly hold Brewin'Upastorm in high regard. Beaten four lengths in a Listed bumper here last February the gelding won nicely at Huntingdon last time and steps up in class and trip. In the Weekender Straight from the Stable tour (14-18.11.18) handler Olly Murphy said:

'He isn't a big, scopey horse but has the makings of a smart hurdler... He'll definitely want 2m 4f in time, but he'll stick to 2m for that first run and will be fit enough to do himself justice [Huntingdon win], although he'll improve for the run.'

There looked more to come from Getaway Trump when he won a novice hurdle by five lengths at Exeter three weeks ago. He showed a smart turn of foot on heavy ground that day and stable form is red hot. He was beaten 28 lengths by Senior Citizen at Chepstow on his seasonal debut but that form should be treated with caution as he stumbled three out and could not recover.

Kateson won over course and distance with something in hand last time. In the Weekender Straight from the Stable tour (07-11.11.18) Tom Lacey said:

'His owners have mentioned that they'd love to run him at Cheltenham in March, with the Albert Bartlett the preferred target, but he must take us there as I won't drop him in above his grade. I hope he'll progress to that level by the spring.'   

There's a hint he would ideally prefer softer ground.

On a line through Vinndication, Coolanly has some four and a half lengths to find with Champ which isn't necessarily reflected in the market prices on offer. Fergal O'Brien's charge fell on his seasonal debut and then raced noticeably wide when winning at Cheltenham six weeks ago. The stable won last year's renewal with Poetic Rhythm (15/8f) although Adrian Heskin very nearly pinched it on Mulcahys Hill.

Alsa Mix surprised connections when beating the boys at Sandown three weeks ago. She benefits from her mare's allowance here but trainer Alan King admits this is 'a tough ask'. I didn't come across any fillies or mares amongst the recent winners - I couldn't say for certain whether a mare or filly has ever won this contest.

Nestor Park was beaten over 14 lengths by Coolanly on his penultimate run but settled better to win at Warwick last month. On the Listed bumper form of last February. Ben Pauling's charge has just one length to find with second favourite Brewin'Upastorm.

You pay your money and takes your chance. Brewin'Upastorm (11/2) would be my win play against the short-priced favourite but I note that SkyBet are the only layers to pay three places one fifth the odds.

Coolanly (6/1 each-way with Sky Bet) is the suggestion.

A chance for the Challow

Rather spoilt for choice tomorrow with the Welsh National at Chepstow, the Lexus at Leopardstown and the Challow at Newbury.

The world and his wife have put up Well Refreshed for the Welsh National after his eye-catching trial in Sandown's London National three weeks ago. Allocated to carry just 10-2, and with Josh Moore able to claim a further three pounds, Gary Moore's gelding will certainly relish underfoot conditions but his jumping can be haphazard - I still recall the manner in which he practically ran through the final fence of Haydock's Grand National Trial on similar ground in February. I'm not tempted.

Gold cup winner Bobs Worth is on a retrieval mission in the Lexus after a below-par effort in the Betfair Chase last month. Connections don't sound overly confident and Henderson's horses are struggling at the moment - box office draw Sprinter Sacre was pulled up and diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton earlier today while Grandouet was turned over at odds of 1/2 in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase. Willie Mullins' Sir Des Champs blotted his copy book when falling last time but he's still my idea of the winner - Walsh rides Rubi Ball who could be anything.

Only six in the Challow but it's decidedly tricky. Likely favourite Oscar Rock has won a listed bumper at the track while Timesremembered failed to give seven pounds to Creepy the last day at Cheltenham. On a literal interpretation of that form Creepy has it to do to confirm the placings and the market prices on offer suggest bookmakers concur. To my mind Creepy has improvement to come but to date he has shown his best form on better ground so I'm going to stick with Emma Lavelle's Timesremembered  (7/2 generally) who is the best horse in the race on official ratings. Those same ratings also indicate that Kaki De La Pree is in there with a shout...

The rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle

There's a very good card at Newbury tomorrow with the highlight being the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle at 2.40. The press has built this up into a match between Big Buck's and Diamond Harry but we can expect improvement from Karabak (who, according to John Francome, nearly blew the stands down after finishing six lengths behind Zaynar in the Coral Ascot Hurdle some six weeks ago) while Fair Along has been known to sulk on occasions in the past but is good on his day. On official ratings Fair Along is the third best horse in this eight runner race, needing to find just three pounds with Diamond Harry, yet Paddy Power offer 25/1 this evening - that has to be worth an each-way dabble with the stable in such good form, provided of course the eight make it to the start. The same layers go 12/1 Karabak which also looks tempting each-way value if you fancy that one. I expect all those taking on the current holder of the World Hurdle title here would have preferred to have done so at Ascot as Big Buck's has never raced right-handed - the snow stopped that taking place.

The Graduation Chase (1.00) looks trappy enough and should prove useful for future reference. At the weights Roll Along should beat these but he disappointed on his first run for Twiston-Davies when an even money favourite at Carlisle. I harbour a suspicion he may just prefer better ground than he's likely to encounter tomorrow.

In the Challow Finian's Rainbow went into many notebooks when winning here by fifteen lengths last month. He has another five furlongs to travel tomorrow but the last time he didn't give the impression that would cause a problem. Others worth a mention include Reve De Sivola, Manyriverstocross and Duke Of Lucca while Kennel Hill ran a stormer at odds of 100/1 when second to Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham just over a fortnight ago.

Christmas review

Kauto Star's victory in a fast-run King George was most impressive; many of his rivals were taken clean off their feet. Paul Nicholls was clearly pumped up afterwards and used the post-race interviews to make a couple of points. We won't see Kauto out again before next March while Denman has Newbury's Aon Chase as his target.

I'm not certain how much store to put by Breedsbreeze's victory in the Feltham. The six novices put in some very dodgy jumping between them, the winner and favourite being the best of a poor bunch on the day. Market rival The Market Man made an absolute howler down the back straight that put an end to his chance. I'm not tempted by 10/1 this winner for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham as I wasn't totally convinced about him getting the three mile trip and his limited chasing experience to date has come in small fields. Gone To Lunch, who won today at Newbury, is priced at 16/1 for Cheltenham; he may not turn out to be the best horse in the field but his jumping should stand him in good stead.

On Saturday I thought two starts were worthy of comment. At Chepstow the starter let the runners go off any old how in the Future Champions Hurdle while in the Castleford Chase at Wetherby there were at least two or three jockeys riding speedy sorts who looked determined to get a 'flyer' and practically had their mounts galloping as the tapes went up; 7/2 favourite Calatagan was over twenty lengths off the pace at the first turn!

Diamond Harry won today's Challow Hurdle at Newbury without being extended; connections may take in one more race at Cheltenham towards the end of next month before going for the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Festival.

The prize awaiting the winner of the Weekender's Christmas crossword puzzle is dinner with Mick Fitzgerald. One thing is certain - should you win, you won't have to put in too much effort beforehand thinking about what you're going to talk about... Rumour has it second prize is a long weekend 'chez Fitz'.

Newbury's last meeting of the year

In the opener at Newbury tomorrow Moon Over Miami sets a decent standard but Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's has been well touted beforehand and looks the one. In the 1.35 I'm prepared to give Air Force One a second chance. The novice's jumping went to pieces after an early mistake last time out but, according to The Weekender, he has since undergone intensive schooling at home. Charlie Mann considers the horse amongst the best he has trained and the stable are flying high at the moment. The Challow Novices' Hurdle looks competitive. Paul Nicholls' Elusive Dream is the top rated horse but went out like a light last time, being comprehensively beaten by Razor Royale on soft going at Cheltenham; ED wears a tongue tie for the first time tomorrow. As a general rule I'm not keen on horses that wear tongue ties when the going is soft. On official handciap ratings Zilcash should be in the mix but he has done most of his racing over two miles. Souffleur looked to have been given a lot to do when finishing third recently and has been kept busy this season. Venetia Williams' Lightning Strike has won twice this season, handles the ground and gets the vote. My guess is the stable think a bit about Swordsman by giving him an entry in this. I'll consider an each way wager if he's priced around the 12/1 mark.