Showing posts with label scottish grand national. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scottish grand national. Show all posts

Friday, April 17, 2026

The 2026 Scottish Grand National

David Smith, economics editor of The Sunday Times, wrote in Wednesday's edition of The Times:

"One of the jibes made against economists - and there are many - is that they see something working in theory and then wonder if it will work in practice." 

I'm no economist but that sentiment struck a bit of a chord...

21 have been declared for this year's Scottish Grand National (3.35 Ayr), the second smallest field in the past ten years; 18 contested the 2023 renewal won by Kitty's Light.

The going at the track today was changed to soft, heavy in places, before the final race at 5.15; showers are predicted before racing tomorrow.  

Top weight this year is rated 145.

The fact the past nine winners have all been rated 135 or above with only two carrying more than 11-00 - Mighty Thunder (144) 11-02, 2021 and Win My Wings (140) 11-08, 2022 - highlights this renewal is some way below the usual standard.

With the exception of Kap Vert, younger horses find themselves towards the head of the market. 

Just over five weeks ago Ask Brewster held Road To Home a neck in the Kim Muir on good ground at Cheltenham with Kim Roque eight lengths adrift in fourth and Herakles Westwood fading badly from three out to finish well beaten in mid division.

On revised terms Road To Home would be expected to reverse placings, especially as, to date, Ask Brewster has shown his best form on decent ground; Kim Roque and Road To Home look closely matched, although Kim Roque appeared to be closing on the leaders at the finish.

King Of Answers seemed to take a step forward in first-time cheekpieces at Kelso in February (Maximillian third) and, raised ten pounds, lost nothing in defeat to Holloway Queen over three and three quarters miles in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival (eighth Holokea won at Haydock on Wednesday); the handicapper has raised him a further three pounds for that effort.

Paul Nicholls saddles two - Quebecois and Isaac Des Obeaux; the trainer has won the race three times previously with Belmont King (1997) and Vicente twice (2016 and 2017). 

Quebecois is still a maiden over fences. 

He finished third behind Johnnywho and Jagwar in the Ultima (the first named fourth in the Grand National last week, the latter unseating Mark Walsh following a bad mistake in the same race) with Blaze The Way seventh and the grey Stolen Silver beaten over 45 lengths in fourteenth. 

On his blog the handler concedes his charge 'is probably on a tough mark now' and continues:

"On good ground I have no doubt he [Quebecois] would get the trip but on this ground I don't know.

"He is a half brother to an Albert Bartlett winner and he did get the trip at Cheltenham the other day."  

On his penultimate start Isaac Des Obeaux was beaten 21 lengths by Rivers Corner in the Somerset National at Wincanton. 

I had the beast down as a doubtful stayer after that effort but next time out, over a mile further and under an inspired Sam Twiston-Davies ride, the gelding stayed on stoutly to beat Rock My Way eight lengths in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, with Git Maker third and Collectors Item pulled up. 

He looked to have a hard race that day and has been raised seven pounds to a career high mark of 139.

Blinkers appear to have helped Git Maker.

His stamina gave out over four and a quarter miles at Uttoxeter but Jamie Snowden's charge was third in this race on soft ground in 2024 off 133; two years on he tries again off 129.

Montregard has spent the season racing right-handed, winning twice at Ascot and finishing second behind The Jukebox Kid (Kap Vert fourth) at the same track on his penultimate start. 

16 pounds higher than in the autumn, he comes here with a progressive profile and will be fresher than most. He tries a trip beyond three miles for the first time but his trainer thinks he'll stay.

Chasingouttheblues has won three of his seven chase starts to date and caught the eye four weeks ago when staying on to reel in Fierce Warrior after the last over an extended three miles at Carlisle. After the race Tim Walford, father of trainer Mark, said:

"Chasingouttheblues loves a horse to aim at. He wants far further and he's a Nationals horse. We might have a crack at the Scottish National if there's a bit of give, he wouldn't run on quick ground. He's improving. This track suited him better than last time [beat Paddy O'Mahler half a length at Catterick], when he wasn't quite right."

Promontory didn't run until he was eight but won the Dublin National Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles at the beginning of March. He was raised nine pounds for the win and races here off a mark five pounds higher than that Irish rating; the gelding has been the subject of some market support during the day.

Kap Vert finished under eight lengths behind Montregard in the race won by The Jukebox Kid at Ascot in January before winning a Class 3 handicap chase on good ground at Taunton at the beginning of last month. Only six years of age, he hails from a yard who don't make a habit of overfacing their charges.

Herakles Westwood, my each-way selection for the Kim Muir, faded from three out for no obvious reason - another instance when a theory of mine didn't work out in practice. 

He finished behind Blaze The Way at Cheltenham in December before beating Katate Dori on New Year's Day; any benefit derived from the wind surgery undergone in February was difficult to discern at the Festival.

Sam Thomas saddles two - Katate Dori and Our Power.

Our Power, third in this last year with Famous Bridge and Magna Sam both pulled up, has been out of sorts this season; connections fit first-time blinkers but Dylan Johnson rides Katate Dori whose sixth behind Panic Attack in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury reads well enough. 

Collectors Item beat Katate Dori off a mark of 132 in the 2025 Somerset National at Wincanton but Jonjo O'Neill's charge is another who has too often failed to transfer my working theories into practice.  

Gabbys Cross has the assistance of Sean Bowen in the saddle but has been contesting veterans chases since joining Nick Schofield. 

Since 2000 there have been three winners older than ten: Hello Bud (2009); Merigo (2012); and Wayward Prince (2015).

Certainly not the highest quality renewal but very competitive nonetheless. 

Novices boast a good record in the race and both Promontory and Kap Vert look unexposed but Git Maker, third last year, arrives in form and should appreciate the soft ground. 

Git Maker is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 16/1 with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral, all paying five places.

That's the theory. Will it work in practice?

Friday, April 11, 2025

The 2025 Scottish Grand National

In a bid to wrestle a second consecutive British trainers' title from Dan Skelton, Willie Mullins' bandwagon rolls in to Ayr...

Six of the yard's original 11 entries for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.35) have made the final declaration stage in a field of 23 runners; those who waited to see what Paul Townend chose to ride waited in vain - the stable's star jockey hasn't been booked for a ride since finishing second on I Am Maximus at Aintree last Saturday.

At the time of writing four of the six Mullins horses are prominent in the market: Chosen Witness, with Sean O'Keefe up; Olympic Man (Mr P W Mullins); Captain Cody (Harry Cobden); and last year's winner Macdermott (Danny Mullins) .

Chosen Witness has yet to win a race over fences in three starts but he was travelling well enough at Navan last time when unseating Paul Townend in a race won by Better Days Ahead - who subsequently finished third in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.

Olympic Man is another with just three chase starts to his name. He won over two and a half miles at Naas last time out but, to date, hasn't always appeared particularly fluent over his fences.

Captain Cody has yet to win in four chase starts; he unseated mid-race behind Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Festival last month (Rock My Way second, Klarc Kent eighth, Hasthing fell at final fence when probably booked for fourth) and looks high enough in the handicap on 140.

In last year's renewal Macdermott (137) pipped Surrey Quest (133) a nose, with  Klarc Kent fourth (132), Spanish Harlem sixth (140), and Mr Incredible (153) pulled up. 

Macdermott's form looks rather indifferent this season yet he goes off 142 while this race has been a stated target for Surrey Quest who races off 139. 

Spanish Harlem, beaten just over eight lengths and now four pounds lower, appears feasibly treated on 136 while Klarc Kent - along with Magna Sam and Brandt - runs from out of the handicap this year but hinted at a return to form in the National Hunt Challenge Cup.

It all brings back memories of younger days when, on my annual trip to the Festival, I'd try to pick the Mullins trained winner of the Cheltenham bumper - more often than not, the market proved of no practical use whatsoever...

One final observation on last year's race, run on ground officially described as soft. 

11 of the 26 runners completed, all carrying under 11 stones; less than 10 lengths separated the first seven home, with all 11 finishers in a ratings band between 132 - 141.

In 2004 Grey Abbey carried 11-12 to victory; since then only four winners have carried more than 11-00: Godsmejudge (11-03, 2013); Vicente (11-03, 2016 and 11-10, 2017); and Mighty Thunder (11-01, 2021).

The going this year is described as good to soft; Skelton relies on Sail Away and Snipe in his bid to land the £112,540 first prize. He'll certainly feel encouraged by the treble he sent out at the Scottish venue today: Roxanne (100/30); Riskintheground (13/2); and Asta La Pasta (6/4f). 

Sail Away and Snipe finished second and third behind The Doyen Chief at Warwick just over a fortnight ago, beaten a neck and six and threequarters lengths; the winner was probably worth more than the official winning margin that day and has the bet365 Chase at Sandown as his target. 

Sail Away hasn't come home in front since winning the 2023 running of the Novices' Championship Handicap Chase at this meet off 136 but his last two runs have hinted at better to come - he bled from the nose when third behind The Doyen Chief on his penultimate start. He'll appreciate better ground and is feasibly treated on a mark of 132 although the trip is a journey into the unknown.

Previously Snipe came home third behind Docpickedme in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster in January, where Walking On Air fell jumping the last when looking the likely winner.

Harry Skelton rides Sail Away and that one looks the stable's main hope.  

New handler Faye Bramley, based at A P McCoy's pre-training yard in Lambourn, saddles Walking On Air for the first time. When with Gary Brown, the gelding finished eleventh behind Daily Present in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham 30 days ago, a race in which Grozni finished sixth, Wiseguy seventh and Dom Of Mary eighth.

On his only try beyond three and a quarter miles Henry's Friend was pulled up behind Corbetts Cross in the 2024 National Hunt Challenge Cup. 

He appears to have his share of weight here - a comment that also applies to Our Power - while I noted Finn Lambert hard at work some way from home when The Kniphand stayed on to finish second behind Moroder in the Grimthorpe last month.

Rock My Way will need to jump better than last time to give himself a chance, a comment that also applies to Hasthing who wears cheekpieces for the first time. 

When Famous Bridge wore cheekpieces for the first time he scooted away from Apple Away after the last in Haydock's Grand National Trial. He was raised four pounds for that effort, then dropped one after finishing sixth behind Myretown in the Ultima. That still leaves Nicky Richards' charge on a mark of 141 and the stable has been quiet recently, although Summergrounds won the concluding handicap hurdle earlier today.   

Back in February the 11-year-old Magna Sam won the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh by nine and a half lengths off a mark of 114 (Surrey Quest third); he was raised eight pounds for his efforts but still races from out of the handicap tomorrow. 

In 2023 Alastair Ralph's charge finished fifth behind Kitty's Light in this race, two places behind 40/1 shot Flash De Touzaine; Liz Doyle's charge bounced back to form to win a Veterans' Chase at Limerick last month. 

Brandt won the Dublin Handicap Chase at Leopardstown over an extended three and a half miles last time off a mark of 110, with Tiernan Roche claiming five. He races from four pounds out of the handicap tomorrow; the booking of Sean Bowen certainly catches the eye.  

And Alice Stevens, claiming three, has the been given the unenviable task of cajoling former Mullins inmate Mr Incredible to put his best foot forward.

In summary...

I wouldn't be the only one surprised to see no runner from Lucinda Russell's stable in this field - Whistle Stop Tour goes in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at 1.43. 

Those on the shortlist include Surrey Quest, Spanish Harlem, Famous Bridge and Magna Sam. 

Surrey Quest looks solid - I'd expect him to reverse Edinburgh National form with Magna Sam on this left-handed track - but a mark six pounds higher than last year is a challenge. 

A mark of 141 looks stiff enough for Famous Bridge but Spanish Harlem makes some appeal - four pounds lower than last year when beaten just over eight lengths. 

Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Spanish Harlem has yet to win a race for W P Mullins but there were hopeful signs at Punchestown last time while the time before he finished 33 lengths behind Nick Rockett in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. 

I'd like to think he can show some improvement on last year's effort.

Spanish Harlem is the each-way suggestion, 12/1 generally at the time of writing but 14/1 with Paddy Power who pay six places. 

Friday, April 19, 2024

Scottish Grand National 2024

If you say Willie Mullins often enough, sooner or later you're going to fall into the trap and say Mullie Willins - I'm sure I heard Ted Chamberpin do exactly that at some point during ITV's coverage in midweek.    

Anyway, the great man - Willie that is, not Ed - is attempting to repeat a feat achieved by Vincent O'Brien in the 1952-53 and 1953-54 seasons - win the British jump trainers' title from a base in Ireland.

W.P. Mullins saddles six of the 26 declared for this year's Scottish National (3.35 Ayr): Mr Incredible; Ontheropes; Spanish Harlem; Macdermott; Klarc Kent and We'llhavewon. 

Fellow title contenders Paul Nicholls and Dan Skelton saddle three between them - the former Stay Away Fay and Broken Halo while Dan relies on Ballygrifincottage. 

Earlier today Skelton nosed back ahead of Mullins in the title race after sending out Catch Him Derry (5/6f), Punta Del Este (25/1) and Presenting Nelly (5/1) to win at Ayr. 

Nicholls sent out Outlaw Peter (7/2jf) to win at Ayr and Kick Up A Storm (11/1) at Exeter; the Ditcheat handler has won the Scottish Grand National three times previously with Belmont King in 1997 and Vicente twice in 2016 and 2017. 

The going is currently described as soft.

Two six-year-old novices, Macdermott and Spanish Harlem, spearhead the Mullins challenge, along with Mr Incredible. The last six-year-old to come home in front was Earth Summit in 1994.

On his fifth start over fences Macdermott beat Better Times Ahead a comfortable 12 lengths at Fairyhouse earlier this month and was raised 12 pounds by the Irish handicapper to a mark of 133. He goes off 137 here and races beyond three miles for the first time. 

Spanish Harlem, the mount of Paul Townend,  has just three chase runs in the book, all over two and a half miles; his jumping hasn't always been foot perfect, with connections suggesting that, to date, this one has shown more at home than he has on the track.

Mr Incredible looked reluctant to go off with the field at the start of the Grand National last week but appeared a tad unfortunate to unseat in rear when hampered by Mahler Mission at The Chair.

Top weight Stay Away Fay faces a stiff task.

Since Grey Abbey won carrying 11-12 in 2004 only four have carried more than 11-00 to victory: Godsmejudge (11-03, 2013); Vincente (11-03; 2016); Vicente (11-10, 2017); and Mighty Thunder (11-01; 2021).

Clear favourite at the time of writing, Git Maker went clear two out with Inothewayurthinkin in the Kim Muir at the Festival but had to settle for second (Whacker Clan third, Whistleinthedark tenth). 

Four weeks later that Festival winner beat Iroko four lengths in the Grade One Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree and is now rated 158; Jamie Snowden's charge looks handily treated here on 133. Soft ground is important to him - the deeper, the better. 

Two key pieces of form are the Eider Chase at Newcastle in February and the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter five weeks ago.

On his first try beyond three and a quarter miles Anglers Crag did well to beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck on heavy ground in the Eider after making a serious mistake two from home. 

Brian Ellison's charge is unbeaten in four chase starts this term and has seen his mark rise from 106 to 134.

Eider third Tommie Beau has been kept busy throughout the winter but was less than seven lengths behind the winner while fifth Cruz Control franked the form by winning the Freebooter Handicap Chase at Aintree last Saturday.

Eider fourth Gold Clermont finished sixth behind Beauport in the Midlands Grand National.

Despite jumping right on occasions - and racing wide around the bend when setting off on the final circuit - Beauport still had enough in reserve to hold Mr Incredible one and threequarter lengths at Uttoxeter, with grey mare My Silver Lining third, Autonomous Cloud fourth and 9/2 favourite Iron Bridge pulled up.  

Beauport has been raised eight pounds; on revised terms the first four look closely matched once again. 

Handler Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this in the past with Captain Dibble (1992); Earth Summit (1994); and Hello Bud (2009).

Iron Bridge didn't jump particularly well on the day and weakened out of contention up the home straight; he was quickly pulled up before the final flight and was subsequently declared to be suffering from post-race heat stress.

Back in 2023 Autonomous Cloud, in receipt of 12 pounds, just held Iron Bridge a head in a three mile novice chase at the Midlands Grand National meeting.

Wearing a first-time visor Inis Oirr made all to win the Edinburgh National 21 lengths at Musselburgh in February and has been raised 14 pounds; Lucinda Russell's charge was a non-runner in the Midlands National and comes here fresher than most.

Mr Vango is another who likes to front run. 

He made all to win the Devon National at Exeter on heavy ground but had no answer to Corbetts Cross when third in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.

In November 2022 Ballygrifincottage beat Beauport 11 lengths in a Haydock novice chase. 

On his next start, the Towton at Wetherby (February 2023), he bled from the nose and hadn't shown any worthwhile form since until chasing home Rose Of Arcadia at Sandown six weeks ago. Dan Skelton's charge looks feasibly handicapped off 138 but the trip remains an unknown.

Surrey Quest has won two of his three starts since moving to Toby Lawes, including the Mandarin Chase at Newbury; good ground in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last time wouldn't have played to his strengths. 

Truckers Lodge beat Beauport in the London National in December. Broken Halo was four lengths down disputing third when coming to grief two out. 

Paul Nicholls' charge won over and extended three and a half miles at Taunton last time but has done most of racing on right-handed tracks in the past two years.

Elvis Mail won at Kelso 13 days ago and has been raised four pounds; Nick Alexander's grey has been known to miss out the odd fence now and again.

Gold Cup Bailly has been off the course for just over a year. He won at Ayr back in January 2023 when connections indicated he got a three mile trip without relishing it. 

Ontheropes won the Munster National in 2021 and was an 8/1 chance for the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury the following month where he finished fourth behind Cloudy Glen. 

He looks to have had his troubles since but hinted at a return to some sort of form when seventh behind Hartur D'arc in the Leinster National at Naas six weeks ago.

Bumper winner Klarc Kent has yet to win a race over hurdles or fences in six attempts.

Whacker Clan, Egbert, Punitive, 2021 Welsh Grand National winner Secret Reprieve, and We'llhavewan all race from out of the handicap.

It's possible to make a case for several in the field - a couple at fancy prices too; trained in Scotland, Inis Oirr has been well backed during the day but I keep returning to the Midlands National form. 

Given a hold-up ride by (the now retired) Paddy Brennan, Autonomous Cloud didn't quite see out the four and a quarter mile trip on heavy ground at Uttoxeter when beaten seven and a quarter lengths. 

I'm hoping the shorter trip here on soft ground will help his cause; the handicapper has helped by reduced his mark one pound. Fergal O'Brien's charge often races up with the pace and I'd like to see those tactics adopted tomorrow in a race where the winner often comes from those that have travelled prominently.

Autonomous Cloud is the each-way suggestion, currently 20/1 with bet365 and Betfred who both pay six places.

Friday, April 21, 2023

Scottish Grand National 2023

23 have been declared for tomorrow's renewal with the going described as good to soft, good in places. Showers are forecast throughout the day.

With Dusart taking his chance, seven are set to race from out of the handicap: Your Own Story; Waitnsee; Magna Sam; Mighty Thunder; Flower Of Scotland; Half Shot; and Small Present.

The top weight has to concede upwards of seven pounds to all his rivals; since 2000 only two winners have carried more than 11-09: Grey Abbey (11-12 in 2004) and Vicente (11-10 in 2017).

The lowest rated winner in the past ten years was Joe Farrell in 2018 who won off a mark of 135.

The market has been dominated by Kitty's Light, Monbeg Genius and Your Own Story. 

Kitty's Light finished second behind stablemate Win My Wings off 143 in this race last year and goes off 140 tomorrow. On that evidence he looks a well-handicapped horse and the bookies have priced him accordingly.

Christian Williams' charge has been slow to come to hand this season. 

His third behind Annsam at Kempton in January hinted at a revival and the gelding went on to win the Eider at Newcastle next time; he looked cooked a mile from home but stayed on dourly to pass The Galloping Bear after the last.

Not the biggest of individuals, he's usually given a hold up ride, thereby avoiding the early scrimmaging up front. Of course, that tactic brings its own risks; as a general rule of thumb, racing prominently has paid dividends in the past. Cheekpieces haven't been fitted since he finished third in last year's bet365 Chase but they're back on tomorrow.

There has been plenty of money for Monbeg Genius throughout the week; his third behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima at Cheltenham looked strong form after the winner went on to take last Saturday's Grand National at Aintree. Jonjo O'Neill's charge is currently priced up favourite.

Lucinda Russell saddles two in a bid to win two Nationals in the space of a week: Your Own Story and Mighty Thunder. The former looks the yard's main hope - Lucinda is on record saying 'I think he has a right chance' - and he'll certainly stay but an official rating of 127 looks low compared to that of previous winners.

Mighty Thunder won off 144 in 2021 but hasn't won since and is now rated 125. There have been recent signs of a revival (fifth behind Elvis Mail at Kelso last time) but he probably holds place prospects at best.

Elvis Mail wasn't stopping in that Kelso race over three and a quarter miles; Nick Alexander's grey jumped well on that occasion but has been known to make a costly blunder or two at his fences.

Three weeks ago Malina Girl won the Ulster National at Downpatrick over three and a half miles. This probably comes quick enough for Gavin Cromwell's mare after that slog in soft ground; the last six year old to come in front was Earth Summit in 1994. The RP Weekender informs me the last Irish-trained winner of this event was Huntsman - in 1869!

Undersupervision likes Doncaster - he won the 2022 Grimthorpe and was pipped by Moroder in this year's renewal - and looks as though he'll stay but he isn't always fluent at the fences.

Rebecca Curtis trained Joe Farrell to win in 2018. She saddles Ruthless Article here but hasn't had a winner in 176 days.

On his blog Paul Nicholls points out that Flash Collonges, from the family of Grand National winner Neptune Collonges, races off a chase mark of 134 but has a hurdle rating of 145. Connections seem confident he'll stay the trip.

Nicholls' other runner, Threeunderthrufive, didn't appear to stay three miles five in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January.

Cap Du Nord is Christian Williams' second string, Cooper's Cross came to grief in the Topham at Aintree eight days ago while Manofthepeople appeared to be outstayed by Bridge North the last day.

Of those at bigger prices two are of interest.

It was some performance by Magna Sam to come out after nine months off and, on his first run for Alastair Ralph, win the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh. He beat Captain Cattistock and that one won a competitive handicap chase at Cheltenham on Wednesday. 

Magna Sam raced prominently and, once sent on, wasn't for catching. He was subsequently raised five pounds although regular pilot Alex Edwards doesn't claim three here; this has been the target since. The slight concern is that most of his form has come on right-handed tracks.

Nicky Richards doesn't strike me as someone who would oversell a horse but, reading between the lines, I think he likes Famous Bridge who runs in the famous Trevor Hemmings colours. In a stable tour piece in the Weekender [19-23.10.22] he concludes: 'It could be very interesting where we end up.'

Richards won this with Takingrisks in 2019; the handler is quoted in the Racing Post:

"We're taking a bit of a punt but he has put it together on his last two runs. I don't think he'll be off 10st 2lb next year and nothing ventured, nothing gained. He looks a million dollars and I don't think he'll be far away."

I've missed the bigger prices about Magna Sam - now generally a 16/1 shot - but, at the time of writing, Betfred offer 22/1 about Famous Bridge and pay six places. 

Famous Bridge is the each-way suggestion.

Friday, April 01, 2022

Scottish Grand National 2022

For the first time in as long as I can remember the Scottish Grand National is to be run before the Grand National.

24 made the final declaration stage for this year's Ayr showpiece (3.35) which, in terms of quality, wouldn't be the best of renewals. Last year top weight Lake View Lad raced off a mark of 155; Hill Sixteen starts off 147 tomorrow. Streets of Doyen has been declared a non-runner.

The going is currently described as good to soft, good in places.

Five weeks ago trainer Christian Williams had one Saturday afternoon he's unlikely to forget in a hurry. Win My Wings won the Eider Chase at Newcastle; half an hour later Cap Du Nord beat stablemate Kitty's Light in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton.

Kitty's Light heads the market for tomorrow's race - and all seven favourites obliged at Ayr today. 

A six-year-old, Kitty's Light already has the form of a seasoned handicapper in the book and appeared unlucky not to win the bet365 Chase at Sandown last April off 139; the run at Kempton last time served notice of a return to form. 

Not the biggest of individuals, the bay tends to be ridden conservatively in rear to avoid early scrimmaging before making ground in the latter stages of a race and that, coupled with a weight of 11-08, gives me cause for concern. 

Win My Wings, with Ryan Mania up, beat Innisfree Lad (third), Court Master (fourth) and History Of Fashion (unseated rider) in the Eider. The handicapper has raised the mare eight pounds for that effort but amateur Mr. Rob James claims seven so effectively starts on a mark just one pound higher. 

Ryan Mania on The Ferry Master will certainly know what he has to beat. 

Sandy Thomson's charge finished a creditable fourth off 133 behind Mighty Thunder last year and is five pounds lower this time - stablemate Dingo Dollar finished second and is quoted a 50/1 chance for next week's Aintree showpiece.

When I looked back at the race, it appeared The Ferry Master held every chance four out but lost ground up the home straight - and lost two places before the final fence. A wind operation at the end of January may help the cause but there's a lingering doubt whether he really sees out the trip.

Court Master also appeared to fade from two out in the Eider. 

Cool Mix has never won beyond two miles four and a half furlongs but he finished fifth last year, threequarters of a length behind The Ferry Master. He looks well handicapped off a mark six pounds lower and Alan Doyle claims seven. Iain Jardine's charge finished ahead of The Ferry Master in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November and sports a first-time tongue tie.

Stormy Judge's defeat of Enjoy D'allen and School Boy Hours in a Navan novice chase 12 months ago reads very well - and Danny Mullins takes the ride tomorrow. This one's chance is respected but his best form to date has come on soft / heavy ground and similar comments apply to stablemate History Of Fashion. Peter Fahy saddled Mister Fogpatches to finish third last year.

Novice chasers have a good record in this race. 

Ashtown Lad, a seven length third behind Ahoy Senor in the Towton at Wetherby, could be ahead of his mark as he races beyond three miles for the first time. Major Dundee has a similar profile while Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has won this three times with Captain Dibble (1992), Earth Summit (1994) and Hello Bud (2009), saddles Fantastikas. Fantastikas finished seventh behind Corach Rambler in the Ultima 18 days ago (One More Fleurie seventeenth and Vintage Clouds pulled up); the relatively quick turn out here isn't ideal. Ask A Honey Bee has shown a tendency to jump right on occasions.

Olly Murphy is on record saying The Wolf is 'a vey hard ride'. The gelding's tendency to miss one out here and there doesn't help the cause but he finished second behind Captain Cattistock in the Edinburgh National last time out.

Hill Sixteen's second behind Nut's Well in Kelso's Premier Chase four weeks ago reads well but has resulted in a harsh-looking nine pound rise; Jack Andrews can claim five. Since 2000 only two horses have carried more than 11-03 to victory: Grey Abbey (11-12 in 2004) and Vicente (11-10 in 2017).

Chirico Vallis and Via Dolorosa are two 10-year-olds in form. 

The former pipped Kitty's Light in the Native River Handicap Chase at Chepstow in October (Fidux sixth) but appeared to weaken over three miles five when second behind Eclair Surf in the Classic Chase at Warwick.  

The latter was raised 10 pounds when beating Potters Legend at Fakenham last time where he showed a tendency to jump right.

El Paso Wood has been kept busy since joining David Pipe in the autumn - this will be his ninth start. Last time he finished fourth at odds of 80/1 in the Midlands Grand National. 

He's now six pounds better off but I wonder whether the gelding has fully recovered from that slog in the Uttoxeter mud a fortnight ago.

Innisfree Lad wouldn't be the most consistent of individuals but of those at bigger prices Jersey Bean is certainly worth a second look. 

Oliver Sherwood's charge beat Furius De Ciergues in Haydock's Stayers' Handicap Chase over an extended three and a half miles in November and looks to have been trained specifically for this.

The ground is likely to be too quick for Prime Venture while Strong Economy races from four pounds out of the handicap.

As ever, a really competitive renewal - the two on the shortlist are Major Dundee and Jersey Bean. 

Alan King won this with novice Godsmejudge in 2013 and has a win strike rate of 18% over the past fortnight while Oliver Sherwood's last winner was some 78 days ago - the nod has to go to Major Dundee.

Major Dundee is the each-way selection, at the time of writing 12/1 with William Hill who are paying six places.

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Scottish Grand National 2021

Sponsors Coral regularly reference the Scottish Grand National as generating their fourth highest turnover of any race in the calendar. 

The most recent renewal took place on 13th April 2019 when Nicky Richards' Takingrisks foiled Crosspark's attempt to become the first horse since Willsford in1995 to win both the Eider and the Scottish National in the same season. 

This year's Eider winner Sam's Adventure has been raised eight pounds for his trouble (in a race which saw Big River pulled up and The Dutchman unseat rider). 

Nicky Richards saddles two - Chapel Stile has done most of his racing on soft / heavy ground while Chidswell beat Dingo Dollar in the 2019 Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster and bids to become the first twelve-year-old to come home in front since Willsford.

23 runners went to post two years ago, with five withdrawn on the day on account of the drying ground - including Dingo Dollar. At the time of writing Vintage Clouds has been declared a non-runner leaving 22 set to face the starter at 3.35 tomorrow - the smallest field to go to post for a number of years.

Aye Right is an admirable sort; Harriet Graham's charge likes to race prominently and heads the market but looks in the grip of the handicapper.

Notachance certainly has a chance in a race Alan King likes to target - he trained Godsmejudge to win in 2013. 

This one won the Classic Chase at Warwick with something in hand and then suffered a nasty injury next time when pulled up behind Lord Du Mesnil at at Haydock. The handler reports the gelding in fine form now but the prep has been a little rushed; connections considered waiting for the bet365 Chase at Sandown next week but have decided to take their chance here.

Former Alan King inmate Dingo Dollar looks the pick of Sandy Thomson's two runners with Brian Hughes up. The Ferry Man is respected but much of his form to date has been in small fields.

Soldier Of Love is Paul Nicholls' representative with Truckers Lodge and Highland Hunter not making the final declaration stage. This one will certainly appreciate good ground; the handler won the 2016 and 2017 renewals with Vicente.

Tom Scudamore picks up a plum ride aboard Mighty Thunder after regular pilot Blair Campbell failed to recover from a recent hand injury. Lucinda Russell's charge won the Edinburgh National in February and then finished a highly creditable second to Time To Get Up in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter last month. The gelding clearly stays and should handle the ground; the handicapper has raised the horse 14 pounds for his last two efforts.

Mister Fogpatches is the sole Irish raider with Danny Mullins taking the ride. The gelding handles good ground but remains a maiden over fences. 

Big River finished fifth behind Takingrisks in 2019 but is one whose jumping has never really convinced.

Among those at bigger prices Some Chaos, Coup De Pinceau and Chef D'Oeuvre are of interest.

Some Chaos finished third behind Secret Investor and Potterman at Chepstow in October and then beat Claud and Goldie over three and a quarter miles at Kelso. On his next start he finished fifth behind El Presente in the Badgers Beers Silver Trophy at Wincanton, beaten under six lengths after encountering some trouble in running three out. 

He has since had a break and a couple of warm-up runs over hurdles; connections appear to have decided on a first try at this marathon trip after Wincanton - the gelding has shown his best form on decent ground.

Coup De Pinceau moved out to Nick Mitchell's yard in Dorset last December. On his second run for new connections Coup De Pinceau won over an extended three and a half mile trip at Taunton where he appeared to appreciate the hold-up tactics employed. Angus Cheleda claims a useful seven pounds. 

Chef D'Ouevre moved from Warren Greatrex to Sam England in 2018 and has clearly had his problems. He has undergone two wind operations in the past 18 months and had a spell of 606 days off the track. That said, when he made it to Haydock he appeared to like the place, winning there over three miles three and, on his latest start, over three miles four and a half furlongs; in the past he has run well on good ground. 

Sky Bet stood out offering 50/1 about this one in their first show yesterday; at the moment he's best-priced with Paddy Power who offer 30/1.

A quick mention in passing for Cool Mix who isn't totally disregarded but wouldn't be guaranteed to stay and for Dino Boy too who is eight pounds 'wrong' at the weights but has won over this distance previously and is owned by Mr & Mrs Raymond Anderson Green, winners of the prize in 2010 and 2012 with Merigo.

From the bigger priced runners the two considered are Some Chaos and Chef D'Oeuvre. 

Off a mark of 142 the former is a better fit with the profiles of previous winners and looks to have been trained specifically for the race; this is his first try beyond three and a quarter miles.    

Off a mark of 129 Chef D'Oeuvre races from two pounds out of the handicap but looks to have a respectable chance of seeing the trip out.

Some Chaos is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 20/1 with Betfred who pay 6 places.

Friday, April 12, 2019

Scottish Grand National 2019

To quote Dorothy in The Wizard Of Oz:

'Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!'

Lion Hearted won the Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com Handicap (Chelmsford 4.10) yesterday.

Tiger Roll won last week's Grand National while Rock On Tiger goes in tomorrow's 5.05 at Bangor and Tigerskin in the 3.50 at Newbury.

Follow The Bear finished third in today's finale at Ayr while stablemate Beware The Bear shoulders top weight in tomorrow's Scottish Grand National due off at 3.35 for which 28 have been declared.

The fitting of blinkers has certainly had an impact on Beware The Bear.

Nicky Henderson's charge followed up his win at Cheltenham on New Year's Day with victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival last month - that day Vintage Clouds came home second, Big River fourth and Magic Of Light, second at Aintree last week, eighth.

As a result Beware The Bear has gone up a total of 14 pounds to a mark of 160. He gives away a minimum of eight pounds to all rivals here; the bottom nine race from out of the handicap.

It all looks a tall order and the stable strike-rate - 3 from 37 in the past fortnight - is a cause for some concern. The price appears on the drift this evening although some layers have him 9/1 joint favourite.

The last top-weight to collect the spoils was Grey Abbey in 2004.

Vintage Clouds was my fancy for last week's National but the grey came down at the first. Third in this last year, Sue Smith's charge has every chance but there are several in the field who make more appeal at bigger odds.

Similar comments apply to Big River. I like Lucinda Russell's charge but I'm not totally convinced by his jumping. Earlier in the week Peter Scudamore commented that the gelding would need to sharpen up his act in that department and hinted ideally the horse would prefer more cut underfoot.

Dingo Dollar was nine lengths behind Chidswell in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster six weeks ago (Durham National winner Brian Boranha third, Beau Du Brizais fourth). Prior to that Dingo Dollar had finished a length behind Crosshue Boy in the novices' handicap chase at this meeting last year with Acdc a creditable third.

While Alan King talks up Dingo Dollar's chance in the Weekender - this has been the target all season - there has been plenty of money for Crosshue Boy who was 33/1 in places at the beginning of the week.

Back in January Impulsive Star ran out an impressive-looking winner of the Classic Chase at Warwick; that day I was particularly taken with the manner in which he quickened away from nearest rival Calett Mad on the short run-in after the last. Crosspark finished third, stablemate Carole's Destrier fourth, Cogry tenth and Sizing Codelco eleventh.

Since then Impulsive Star was disappointing at Cheltenham but Crosspark went to Newcastle and won the Eider by a neck from Mysteree with London National winner Morney Wing six lengths adrift in third. Like Beware The Bear, first-time blinkers brought out a marked improvement in Mysteree last time - he only just failed to claim his second Eider. Since Crosspark has learned to settle better, he has shown much improved form.

Taking into account Sam Waley-Cohen's allowance, Impulsive Star would appear to have the edge over Crosspark on Classic Chase form but this evening Neil Mulholland appears more bullish about Carole's Destrier - this race has been the target. The trainer's third runner, Doing Fine, underwent wind surgery in January and looks to have had a similar preparation to last year when he came home fourth.

Cloth Cap, in the same ownership as Vintage Clouds, only has three chase runs to his name but his chance is respected - recent seven-year-olds to win include Godsmejudge (2013) and Vicente (2016).

Chidswell looked good in the Grimthorpe but I'm unnerved by the fact most of his form, and stablemate's Takingrisks, is in small fields; that same comment also applies to Blue Flight - the last six-year-old to win was Earth Summit in 1994, trained by handler Nigel Twiston-Davies. I note that son Sam is on Cogry...

Geronimo is one of those racing from out of the handicap but his victory here the last day suggests he'll stay the trip; should he come home in front, Rachael McDonald will become the first female rider to win this prestigious race.

A fiercely competitive renewal - it's possible to construct a case for several of the bigger priced horses.

I'm going to stay loyal to Crosspark (ahead of Impulsive Star) who did me a favour in the Eider back in February.

Further down the field Cogry looks big enough at 25/1 (sent off 9/2 favourite for Warwick's Classic Chase in January) as does Acdc at 33/1 on the back of his three length third to Crosshue Boy here last year.

Crosspark is the each-way suggestion at 14/1, with most layers paying one fifth the odds six places.

Friday, April 20, 2018

Scottish Grand National 2018

The week after Aintree invariably throws up a selection of Grand National 'scrapes' generally encountered by the once-a-year punters - with runners, non-runners and reserves adding to the complications this time round.

It is with a certain degree of chagrin that I have to report my mother-in-law has been at it again - winning, that is. She backed Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009 and she happened to be on Tiger Roll last Saturday at odds of 10/1.

Since the inception of this blog in 2006 my mother-in-law is showing an overall profit of 57.25 points; I'm seriously thinking of packing it all in and simply following her annual foray into the National market.

Percipient readers will have noticed I stated above that 'she happened to be on Tiger Roll' and therein lies a story.

Sent to the bookmakers to strike a number of bets for the extended family, my mother-in-law's runner, my father-in-law, was informed by the helpful assistant in the shop that her original selection, Thunder And Roses, was a non-runner; he should back Tiger Roll for her instead.

In terms of customer service it really doesn't get much better than that, does it?

The Times' theatre critic Ann Treneman wasn't quite so chuffed with the service afforded her when she walked into a William Hill betting shop in Bakewell, Derbyshire. Shown how to strike a £10 each-way wager on Milansbar, she was somewhat dismayed to discover later that William Hill only paid fifth place on wagers placed online.

Spare a thought though for this mother and her two daughters.

Mother backs Tiger Roll each-way single (wins); younger daughter backs Pleasant Company each-way single (second); elder daughter backs Bless The Wings each-way single (third). The tricast paid £9,439.25; the trifecta £68,670.00.

I did send a polite email earlier in the week enquiring why they hadn't informed me beforehand they were about to pull a stunt like that but, as of yet, I haven't received a reply.

If that's the sort of story that whets your appetite, tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (4.05 Ayr) is marginally easier with just 30 runners set to face the starter; the going is good, good to soft in places.

Last week a racing hack suggested layers would be targeting Flat fans after the Aintree Festival but in terms of turnover Coral rate the Scottish National their fourth best race after the Aintree National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Derby.

Vicente has won the past two renewals and tries for the hat-trick off a mark four pounds higher than last year and with similar underfoot conditions.

Cogry was beaten a neck into second last year with Benbens a further two lengths adrift in third, Vintage Clouds seventh (beaten thirteen and threequarter lengths), Henri Parry Morgan ninth (beaten nineteen and a quarter lengths) and Straidnahanna pulled up. At the revised weights Cogry has it all to do to reverse placings with the winner (Jamie Balgary no longer claims three) but Benbens looks in the mix.

Vintage Clouds, second behind Ballyoptic in the Towton at Wetherby and then third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, is respected off a mark seven pounds higher than last year; Sue Smith's gelding was the fourth reserve for the Aintree National last week but didn't get a run.

Two that caught my eye earlier were Looking Well and Doing Fine - or was it Looking Fine and Doing Well?

Anyway, there has been steady money for Neil Mulholland's charge Doing Fine - he's challenging for favouritism in some lists. He finished five and a quarter lengths behind Benbens in the London National last December; there's the suspicion Barry Geraghty left his mount with too much ground to make up that day. On a strict interpretation of the book the pairing look closely matched.

Looking Well's second to Ziga Boy in the 2017 Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster reads well; I backed him to follow up in the Grimthorpe at the same track five weeks later but he ran no race at all - an issue was subsequently discovered.

This term on his last run he came from off the pace and appeared to have the Edinburgh National in the bag approaching the last but he may well have been running on empty as he jinked, dumped Ryan Day on the ground and gifted a fortunate-looking victory to my selection Full Jack. The handicapper wasn't fooled - Nicky Richards' charge went up five pounds.

At the prices Looking Well makes more appeal but I'm concerned as both are hold-up horses and as a general rule of thumb those that race prominently have fared better in this event over the years.

A quick mention too for Irish runner Glencairn View who looks unexposed and could be anything; at the time of writing he's trading between 14/1 and 18/1.

Benbens is thirteen years old, pulled up last time out and is the least fancied of the three Twiston-Davies runners but on last year's running he looks in the mix and appears overpriced at 40/1 with Sky Bet (six places one fifth the odds).

However, on the better ground I'm going to chance that Looking Well can see out the trip and avoid any potential trouble in running.

Looking Well (20/1 Coral, one fifth the odds seven places) is the each-way selection.

Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand in the competitive-looking Ayrshire Hospice Land O'Burns Starlight Walk Handicap Hurdle (4.40) but one I expect to improve for the better ground is Burbank. He finished seventh in the Coral Cup, beaten seven lengths, and the handicapper has dropped him one pound for that effort. I'm not tempted by the 7/1 - 8/1 on offer this evening so I'll watch with interest.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Scottish Grand National 2017

There are thirty declared for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National (3.55 Ayr) where the going is currently described as good to soft; recent big-priced winners include Iris De Balme at 66/1 in 2008; Al Co at 40/1 in 2014 and Wayward Prince at 25/1 in 2015. Vicente won last year's renewal and tries again off exactly the same mark.

Due to circumstances entirely beyond my control, form study this week has been somewhat curtailed; I've been on the lookout for an outsider at a decent price and have come up with two possibilities...

At 50/1 Blakemount clearly fits the outsider tag and his fifth in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter five weeks ago reads well enough. Sue Smith's yard appears in decent form but jockey bookings are disconcerting; Danny Cook rides Vintage Clouds (two falls in last three runs) for owner Trevor Hemmings and Sean Quinlan is aboard Straidnahanna, suggesting Blakemount (Henry Brooke up) is considered third choice.

Dancing Shadow has been in good form this season and won the Edinburgh National Handicap Chase at Musselburgh on his penultimate start over a trip of four miles one furlong. He was raised eight pounds for that effort but was subsequently pulled up in the amateurs' four miler at the Festival. Victor Dartnall's charge has enough weight and has to put that latest effort behind him but it was 39 days ago and Hill's offer 40/1 a quarter the odds four places while Paddy Power quote a price of 33/1 and pay one fifth the odds six places.

Blakemount is the each-way suggestion at 50/1 with Paddy Power paying one fifth the odds six places.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Scottish Grand National 2016

This year's Scottish National picks up where last week's Grand National left off with a number in the field, having failed to make the cut for the Aintree showpiece, turning out here instead; among them are Cause Of Causes, Midnight Prayer, Royale Knight, Pineau De Re, Highland Lodge and Alvarado.

My overall record in this race doesn't stand up to the closest scrutiny (Milborough's fall early on last year a fair benchmark) but Hello Bud was one of two selections put up for the 2009 renewal.

Mouse Morris and Gigginstown House Stud try for a hat-trick of Grand Nationals with Folsom Blue while in the contest for the trainers' title Willie Mullins sends over Measureofmydreams and Paul Nicholls saddles Vicente.

Nicholls could be worried by the stats which show just two seven-year-old winners since 2000 (Gingembre in 2001 and Godsmejudge in 2013); Godsmejudge was the first horse to carry more than 11-0 to victory since Grey Abbey in 2004.

On the back of his sixth in last year's Grand National, as well as Dr Richard Newland's subsequent remarks, I quietly fancied Royale Knight to run a big race at Aintree and at a fancy price too.

I'm going to stay loyal here; the horse will appreciate testing ground but I have this feeling the opportunity may have passed and quotes of 14/1 for this week's race are nowhere near as tempting as the 50/1 on offer for last week's. It will be important Brendan Powell secures a prominent pitch early on.

Rather ironically, in the Weekender Peter Naughton quotes Dr Newland about the selection's stablemate:

'Pineau De Re did his best piece of work in around two years last week and the race will suit him perfectly.'
             
Highland Lodge is worthy of a mention on the back of his win in the Becher Chase in December. That day, on his first run for Jimmy Moffatt, he had Vics Canvas, third at Aintree, three and a half lengths adrift in fifth. In the past he hasn't been one to trust implicitly but perhaps the change of scenery has helped work the oracle.

And you just wonder if first-time cheekpieces will help Shotgun Paddy who has some decent efforts in the book (including Warwick's Classic Chase in 2014) but whose jumping frequently causes a problem.

Royale Knight (14/1) is the each-way selection; a number of layers are offering a quarter the odds five places.

On a slightly different tack, the story that has generated most comment from the blog's tenth anniversary post a couple of weeks back is the telephone interview conducted with my mother-in-law after she had backed Mon Mome at 100/1 in the 2009 Grand National.

Here's the abbreviated detail of a further family fiasco following this year's race...

Two minutes after Rule The World had passed the winning post in front our landline rang; caller display indicated it was my brother.

'That's unusual - for a Saturday - to get a call from your brother,' quipped Mrs Tips emerging from the scullery. In an instant my worst fears were confirmed; he'd backed the winner at 50/1.

PG: 'What made you chose that one?'

Bro: 'I met this guy in the bookies and he had bet Boston Bob as his name was Bob so I started to think I need a horse with a Welsh connection.'

PG: 'The old Welsh connection, huh?'

Bro: 'Ydw. Browsing through the runners, when I saw Rule The World I immediately thought of Harry Secombe singing "If I ruled the world".'

Bro continues, singing limpidly in Secombesque fashion into the handset:

'If I ruled the world
Every day would be the first day of spring
Every heart would have a new song to sing
And we'd sing of the joy every morning would bring.'

I didn't know whether to laugh or cry and still don't - where's Thora Hird when you need her? I'm considering burning the form books - offers invited.

Friday, April 17, 2015

One thousand posts, two more longshots

For blog post no. 1000, a couple of Ayr longshots...

Thirty declared for tomorrow's Scottish National (3.45) - just two carry more than 11-0 while the bottom seven race from out of the handicap.

I've seen Sego Success tipped up but Alan King's charge has some 17 lengths to find with David Pipe's Broadway Buffalo on recent Cheltenham running.

Gallant Oscar and Indian Castle are closely matched on their respective third and fourth behind The Druids Nephew last time, form that reads very well. The former is owned by J P McManus and so has already proved popular in the market while the latter isn't certain to see out the trip.

Last year's winner Al Co fell at the first in last week's Aintree National but the Weekender reports the gelding continued riderless for a full circuit, jumping ten fences in the process.  

In February Milborough won the Eider Chase off a mark of 134 with pilot G B Watters able to claim five pounds; here he races off 144 and his rider can only claim three; he's still of interest at 20/1.

At the bottom of the handicap Carli King will race from the front and is another of interest at 33/1, having made all to win at Warwick over three miles five last month. That said, he's thirteen pounds higher tomorrow and is an additional pound wrong at the weights.

Paddy Power pay five places and are currently offering 20/1 about Milborough who gets the nod as the each-way selection.

Dan Skelton fired in four winners at Cheltenham's midweek meeting and I just think 16/1 looks too big about Bertimont (seventh in the Champion Hurdle) in the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2.35.

Quoting the trainer:

"I think Bertimont is in the best form he's been in all year, the track and ground should suit him really well.

"He's got a lot of speed, he won at Chepstow on decent ground and it will be drying all the time."

Bertimont (16/1 with Hills and Stan James at the time of writing) is the each-way pick.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Scottish Grand National day 2014

If Scotland were to vote for independence in September, I wonder what effect, if any, that might have on this particular fixture...

Seven days after the English Grand National at Aintree, thirty runners set off over the slightly shorter trip of four miles and 110 yards in the Scottish version at Ayr.

Tidal Bay looked unfortunate when unseating Sam Twiston-Davies at the Canal Turn last week but then went on to wreak havoc by carrying out Across The Bay on the stable turn when that one was some six lengths to the good over his field.

Tidal Bay stands his ground for tomorrow's showpiece with the result that just ten of his opponents are set to carry their allotted handicap weight, including stablemate Sam Winner, fifth in the RSA Chase last month - make of that what you will.

Peter Bowen has four runners while Alan King is one of several trainers saddling two - last year's winner Godsmejudge is on a comeback mission but the handler appears quietly confident about the chance of Midnight Appeal in the Weekender saying '... this has been the plan for some time.'

There are tips aplenty for Trustan Times but I'll take an each-way interest in Rigadin De Beauchene provided the ground doesn't dry out too much. He was pulled up last year but this time turns up fresher than most having won the Haydock National Trial on his seasonal debut; he's generally available at 20/1.

In the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.40) seven pound claimer Mikey Ennis negates much of the overweight Swing Bowler was set to carry as a result of the race conditions. The mare led two from home but didn't quite see out the climb up the Sandown hill in the Imperial Cup; against the likes of My Tent Or Yours and Montbazon she rates a sporting each-way play at 33/1.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Scottish Grand National 2013

At 3.50 tomorrow this year's shock Grand National winner Auroras Encore and jockey Ryan Mania bid to complete a double last achieved in 1974 by Red Rum and Brian Fletcher by winning the Scottish Grand National in the same season.

The handicapper has ensured the horse faces no simple task and has incurred the wrath of trainer's husband Harvey Smith in the process by raising the gelding a further 11 lbs following his exploits at Aintree.

In the past decade only two horses have carried more than 10-5 to victory in this race (Grey Abbey 11-12 in 2004 and Hello Bud 10-9 in 2009) so I've decided to sift through some of the lighter weights towards the bottom end of the handicap...

David Pipe's Big Occasion is appropriately named and has been well tipped-up following his victory in the Midlands National six weeks ago but, as a result, is priced short enough; at six years old he may just lack some vital experience.

Venetia Williams is having a good stab at the prize fund with three entries - Rigadin De Beauchene, Relax and Pentiffic.

The first-named didn't fire when jumping poorly at Sandown last time out but if that run is forgiven appears to offer some value at around the 20/1 mark. Stable jockey Aidan Coleman opts for Relax but I wouldn't totally discount Pentiffic (40/1) who failed to make the cut for the Aintree race and sports cheek pieces for the first time.

Lively Baron is an enigmatic character who could be competitive if in the mood but I'm going to chance Tom George's Monsieur Cadou each-way at around 14/1.

His victory in Haydock's Tim Molony Handicap Chase three weeks ago reads well and the manner in which he stayed on at the end that day suggests he should get this trip. The handicapper has raised the gelding 12 lbs for that effort but with just 10-4 to carry he looks worth an interest.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Scottish Grand National 2012

Grand Nationals - they're a bit like London buses; you don't see one for an age and then three come along all at once. Tomorrow's Scottish Grand National is the third to be run in under a fortnight - 25 will face the starter at 3.25 to set off on a journey of four miles 110 yards.

Those who prefer to make up their own mind may wamt to refer to this Twitter Guide to the Scottish Grand National, comments provided by Coral's Tim Smith.

Otherwise, here's a view...

Junior, a faller at the second at Aintree, is allowed to take his chance and appears to have a stiff task conceding a minimum of nine pounds to the rest of the field; the bottom ten all race out of the handicap. Only one winner has carried more than 10-9 to victory in the past decade - Grey Abbey in 2004 - while four winners have carried the 10-0 (not including riders' allowances) - Joes Edge 2005, Hot Weld 2007, Iris De Baume 2008, and last year's winner Merigo who is rated seven pounds higher this year.

Paul Nicholls' Harry The Viking ran well to be beaten just two lengths over the four mile trip of the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham; R. Walsh takes over from Mr W. Biddick in the plate and Harry is likely to start favourite.

Of those near the head of the market, Portrait King catches the eye. He comes into this on the back of a win in the Eider, having won the Punchestown Grand National Trial on his penultimate start. He's been given a break since and should go well - bet365 offer 9/1 this evening. Quentin Collonges looks unexposed but Knockara Beau's sixth in the Gold Cup reads well and rates the each-way wager at around the 12/1 mark.

A Twitter Guide to the 2012 Scottish Grand National runners

Another in this occasional series...

Following publication of my Twitter Guide to last week's Aintree Grand National, I was slightly worried racing aficianado and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond might accuse me of cultivating southern bias if I didn't do something similar for tomorrow's Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr.

Thing is, the feedback I received from the Aintree Guide was jolly desperate, with punters saying the comments were 'rather dry'.

Gutted.

So, in an attempt to address this miserable siutation, I asked Tim Smith, Senior Trader at Coral, to provide comments for tomorrow's race. As you can see below, he's far better informed than me and has a better sense of humour to boot.

Usual rules - each entry compiled using Twitter's 140 character restriction...

Junior
Has won at Royal Ascot and the Cheltenham Festival. Didn’t get beyond the 2nd fence in the National. Compensation here?
Benny Be Good
His dad was my favourite horse ever. Adaptable type who mixes hurdling with chasing but handicapper in control now.
Walkon
Was once 2nd in a Triumph hurdle. Lost his pace and now up in trip, and will be walking by the end of this slog.
Knockara Beau
Old favourite who stays extreme trips better than his jockey does. Plodded on in the Gold Cup – this more his grade.
Fruity O’Rooney
In cracking form having finished 2nd at Cheltenham. Likes a trip but no secrets from the handicapper now.
Galaxy Rock
Gold Cup winning trainer/jockey combo. In decent form, popular with punters and stays longer than the mother in law.
Harry The Viking
2nd at Cheltenham, Ruby up now and sure to plough on when others have cried enough. Will be a shocking result for the bookies!
Auroras Encore
Back to form over shorter lately but stays 3 miles. This could be a mile too far but he’ll show up well early.
Ikorodu Road
Lightly raced for his age and on a hat trick. Not sure to stay this far but will be bang there if he does.
Portrait King
Irish raider on a hat trick. Stays forever, goes on any ground and jumps for fun. Hard to see him out the frame.
Garleton
Old-timer who bounced back to form last time, but will need his free bus pass to trouble the judge in this one.
Quentin Collonges
Beaten at 11/8 last time up but this lightly raced novice could be a decent EW bet, provided you can spell it on the slip.
Merigo
Won this in 2010 and 2nd last year. Laid out again this season and sure to go very close under Timmy Murphy.
Mostly Bob
Runs more bad races than good ones but capable on his day. Needs to bounce back from a shocking showing at Cheltenham.
Be There In Five
Pulled up in this last year and not shown much since. If you stand by the Winners Enclosure this will be there in five…..hours.
Any Currency
Out classed in the Cotswold Chase but will be more competitive back in a handicap. Could plod into the places at a price.
Our Island
Prolific point winner with bits of form under rules. Ran ok at Cheltenham but needs to pull out more to take this.
Pettifour
Mixes chasing and hurdling but not very good at either these days. Was once quite decent, but then so were U2.
Mac Aeda
Improving novice from the in-form Malcolm Jefferson barn. Blew out last time but chances if yard magic rubs off.
Abbeybraney
Running ok for an old timer but not getting any better. Will jump round in his own time.
King Fontaine
Fallen on his last two chase starts. Has more letters in his form than numbers and could get another one here.
Ballyfitz
Nearly old enough to shave but continues to run well in decent races. The pick of the golden oldies.
Captain Americo
Manages to get out paced in even the slowest of races and looks likely to do the same here. More likely to get lapped than win.
Etxalar
Out of form and out of the handicap. The owner must want some free badges.
Heez A Steel
Form looks like a Scrabble hand, and the only word he will be making here is T-A-I-L-E-D-O-F-F.

Friday, April 15, 2011

Scottish Grand National

In the week after Aintree's Grand National there has been no shortage of people giving their opinion on last Saturday's events. Simon Barnes and Carol Midgley of The Times inform us they've watched their last National, the latter stating 'I think I know the difference between right and wrong' while Matthew Syed, the same paper's 'Sports Feature Writer of the Year', resorts to quoting chunks of Orwell to readers in a piece penned on Wednesday. The case for the defence included Brough Scott appearing on The One Show, a statement issued by the British Horseracing Authority and support for the race from champion jockey Tony McCoy. As if all that wasn't enough, there's another Grand National tomorrow - in Scotland!

30 have been declared for tomorrow's showpiece at Ayr where the going is described as good, good to soft in places; at the time of writing two look doubtful - Fair Along and Bellflower Boy. Neptune Collonges has stood his ground which means that just eight of the 30 declared will carry their correct handicap weight; Neptune is set to concede a minimum of 15 pounds to his opponents. Several runners were in action at Cheltenham last month - Neptune Collonges (Gold Cup), Chicago Grey, Beshabar and Be There In Five (NH Chase), Blazing Bailey, Fair Along and No Panic (Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase), Fredo (Kim Muir), Poker De Sivola (Cross Country Chase), Gansey (Byrne Group Plate) and Gone To Lunch (Foxhunter Chase) while Minella Four Star beat Ballyfitz in the Midlands Grand National and That's Rhythm jumped a sand line in the turf at the start of last week's Aintree National before overjumping at the first and falling. No favourite has obliged in the past decade and only one winner has been priced lower than 12/1 (Ryalux in 2003). Of the market leaders, Always Right (9/1 Coral, totesport) appeals, certainly more so than last year's winner Merigo who was well behind the former in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster. Having said that, Always Right just held Lothian Falcon (first-time cheekpieces applied) in that Doncaster race; the latter reopposes on 10 pounds worse terms here although Peter Carberry can claim seven of them. I shall take a small each-way interest in Always Right.

I'm not particularly tempted by the Scottish Champion Hurdle (a limited handicap). Those who want to play may be interested in Nick Mordin's comments in the Weekender - Bygones Of Brid doesn't travel well but has won five out of six on local tracks. He may be of interest at a price.

On Arkle form Giorgio Quercus has the beating of Stagecoach Pearl in the 2.20 while the five year old mare Nadiya De La Vega is well regarded. Geraghty looks to have chosen Giorgio. For the record, the favourite has won three of the past ten renewals whereas the second favourite has won on four occasions.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Ayr plans disrupted

Air travel has been disrupted today by a volcano in Iceland while tomorrow's Ayr National has been disrupted by the appearance of a four foot hole on the hurdles course. As a result, the thirty runners set to contest the Coral Scottish Grand National at 3.20 will have twenty four obstacles to negotiate rather than twenty seven. Howard Johnson's Killyglen heads the weights while nine of the contenders race from out of the handicap. I had no luck in last week's Grand National and I suspect it will be a similar story tomorrow. I've been on the lookout for a horse that comes to this relatively fresh and will handle the ground - one I considered was Andrew Parker's Merigo. That one won the Eider last year - Timmy Murphy rides again for the father-in-law so I expect he'll be trying his best - but the horse prefers cut underfoot. That being the case, I'll take a small each-way interest in the Sir Robert Ogden owned That's Rhythm who has won on decent ground and is expected to appreciate the trip. The horse fell in this race last year - I'm hoping the fitting of first time cheekpieces will help his concentration; Coral offer the value this evening at 20/1.

Emma Lavelle's Kangaroo Court is of interest in a trappy-looking Future Novices' Champion Chase. He has won over the distance but has something to find with both French Opera and Tchico Polos on official ratings. The concern is he was withdrawn at Cheltenham on Wednesday (rather than declared a non-runner) and I don't know why. He'll appreciate the ground here - at the prices on offer Kangaroo Court gets the vote (9/2 Tchico Polos looks big too) in a race where only two favourites have obliged in the last ten years - in contrast the second favourite has won on five occasions.

If the hole in the hurdles track affects the chase course, how it affects the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.45) is anybody's guess. Following a long layoff Michael Scudamore's Gloucester ran a fine race the last time at odds of 50/1 to take sixth in the Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He won't be that price tomorrow but may be worth an each-way intertest at around 10/1 - he's sure to appreciate the good ground.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

The bottom drawer...

On Saturday the going at Newbury was described as soft while Ayr was on the fast side of good; for a moment I thought the two reports had been inadvertently mixed up! Hello Bud won the Scottish National in some style, managing to successfully make all over four miles. In that race Timmy Murphy was originally booked to ride Merigo, owned by his father-in-law, but the horse was withdrawn on account of the ground. Now I'm sure the thought must have crossed Timmy's mind that perhaps he'd managed to wriggle out of a potentially awkward situation there... None of it. Raymond Green, a big Rangers fan, had Timmy ride another of his runners, King Barry, named after the Rangers midfielder Barry Ferguson. After recent events I'm sure Barry would have appreciated some decent publicity; King Barry did his best to oblige, running up with the pace for much of the race but he faded from five out, finishing a respectable seventh.

A week on the Flat - Fantasia wins the Nell Gwyn impressively, Brian Meehan's Delegator the Craven without breaking sweat. Mr Meehan must have thought he'd bagged the Fred Darling as well with Super Sleuth but Mick Channon's Lahaleeb claimed the spoils in the shadow of the post. Jim Bolger's Vocalised won the Greenham but looks likely to miss the Guineas.

My miserable existence has become that little bit more miserable with the news of the passing of Sir Clement Freud. There have been several tributes in the press. My two favourite Sir Clement stories are his managing to secure payment equal to the Prime Minister's (at that time) for appearing with Henry the basset hound when promoting Minced Morsels in a television advertising campaign, and his placing a bet of £1,000 on himself to win the Isle of Ely by-election in 1973 at the rather rewarding odds of 33/1.

With the Flat about to take centre stage, Mrs Tips has stated that one of my summer jobs is to read Eclipse by Nicholas Clee. I fully intend to do so (and write a comprehensive review to boot) but, as is the case with several married men I know, once my wife has told me to do something, I never quite get around to it...

Finally, it may have escaped your notice that on April 9th Kim Bailey's Max Bygraves won a novices' handicap hurdle at Ludlow. Rumours that the jockey, J M Maguire, dismounted and started his post-race debrief by saying 'I wanna tell ya a little sto-ry' are wide of the mark.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Scottish Grand National

Having failed miserably in recent Grand Nationals, I'm not particularly confident my selections for the Scottish Grand National, which will be run over over a distance of four miles and half a furlong at Ayr on Saturday, are going to turn things around. Twenty one are set to go to post; as expected Notre Pere has not been declared on account of the going, so Paul Nicholls' Dear Villez now carries top weight. For this I've decided to avoid completely horses that ran recently at either Cheltenham or Aintree - that takes out Dear Villez, Tricky Trickster, Nine De Sivola, Gone To Lunch, Brooklyn Brownie, According To John, Coe and Arteea . Those who follow trends will tell you that novices have a decent enough record and Chief Dan George will be popular. His chance is respected but he's taken plenty of time to take to the chasing game and as he's likely to start near the head of the market I've decided to look elsewhere. The two each-way chances I like carry less than eleven stones - Sir Robert Ogden's That's Rhythm who has been well-backed in the run up to the race and is now around 16/1 and the Twiston-Davies trained Hello Bud. The stats tell us that the latter named, at the age of eleven, is probably too old to deliver in a race like this but he won without being extended at Wincanton nine days ago, will stay and will act on the expected quick ground; at around 33/1 he appeals as a sporting each-way wager offering some value in this ultra-competitive handicap.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Scottish Grand National

Twenty four go to post in tomorrow's Scottish Grand National at Ayr but there's a peculiarly lop-sided feel to the race with only three horses racing off their correct handicap mark. Miko De Beauchene has been in good form this season, has a nice racing weight and will handle the conditions. He's my idea of the winner and is likely to trade around the 6/1 mark - I should point out that in the past this hasn't been a particularly lucky race for me. Those looking for something at a bigger price with an each-way shout may want to consider Ossmoses at around 12/1 or Philson Run at 20/1. Ossmoses ran well enough after a long layoff last time out and will handle the ground; I'm concerned that on his second run back after such a long layoff he may 'bounce' and you could easily argue that the value has disappeared from the odds on offer. Philson Run appeared unlucky to fall early in the Grand National at Aintree. He's had a light campaign and comes to this relatively fresh. The soft ground will help - it will stop the others getting away - and I think he has reasonable place prospects. Being of Scottish descent, Mrs Tips always takes a keen interest in this event; she has put up Leading Man and Kilbeggan Blade as her two against the field.

The Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle is due off at 3.00; note that this is a limited handicap, with only five of the seventeen participants racing off their correct rating. In a very difficult race I may have a speculative each-way punt on Bywell Beau at around 25/1 - he will certainly handle the ground.

Noland will be long odds-on in the 2.30 Future Champion Novices' Chase but I'll consider opposing with Starzaan, particularly if the price is 6/1 as today's Sporting Life tissue indicates. The conditions of this race mean there's just one pound between the two using official handicap ratings. Two and a half miles, soft ground and a flat track suit Starzaan who, despite his age, has relatively few miles on the clock.