Fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat...

The manner in which Really Super, fresh from a pipe-opener on the Flat, scooted clear in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen yesterday set me thinking. 

Flat racing emerged from lockdown on June 1st while jump racing had to wait until July 1st. Since the resumption of jump racing, how have horses that ran on the Flat in June fared on their first run back over jumps? 

The detail below shows they've fared rather well, returning a level stakes profit of over 45 points... 

Southwell 01.07.20  

12:00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran

12:30

Issac Wonder [17F] 12/1 WINS

Azzuri [29F] 5/4f second

Tonto's Spirit [6F] 17/2 sixth

Cracking Destiny [30F] 9/2 UR; 12 ran

1:10

No qualifiers; 12 ran

1:40

Flintrock [18F] 18/1 fifth

Zenafire [16F] 33/1 eighth; 12 ran

2:10

Medalla De Oro [27F] 11/2 second

Rhosneigr [23F] 6/1 fourth

Thrave [24F] 100/30 fifth; 12 ran

2:40

Ashutor [15F] 5/4f third

Seeusoon [23F] 14/1 fourth

Harbour Sunrise [20F] 250/1 sixth

Let Rip [22F] 7/1 eleventh; 12 ran

3:10

Byron Flyer [25F] 9/2 fourth

Paseo [16F] 14/1 seventh

Final Choice [19F] 50/1 eleventh

Stynes [22F] 28/1 twelfth; 12 ran

3.40 

St Gallen [29F] 3/1f  WINS

Scorched Earth [16F] 6/1 second

Dino Velvet [22F] 4/1 third

See The Sea [25F] 16/1 fourth

Carntop [15F] 7/2 sixth; 12 ran

4.10

Hattab [22F] 13/2 third

Magellan [21F] 9/2 fifth

Prabeni [18F] 18/1 sixth; 12 ran

Southwell aggregates:

108 runners

25 qualifiers

2 winners: Issac Wonder (12/1); St Gallen (3/1f).

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: -8 points

----------

Uttoxeter 06.07.20

12.55

Ginistrelli [26F] 2/1 WINS

Aleatoric [6F] 150/1 third

Employer [13F] 4/1 eighth; 11 ran

1.25

Check My Pulse [19F] 66/1 third

Fanfaronade  [13F] 40/1 eighth; 8 ran

1.55

Dariya [21F] 8/1 fifth; 12 ran

2.30

Diodorus [21F] 2/1 second

Escapability [24F] 11/8f third; 9 ran

3.00

Mister Universum [28F] 16/1 WINS; 9 ran

3.30

No qualifiers; 12 ran

4.00 

Whiskey And Water [18F] 13/2 second

Building Bridges [26F] 16/1 fourth; 12 ran

4.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

5.00 

No qualifiers; 12 ran.

Uttoxeter aggregates:

94 runners

11 qualifiers

2 winners: Ginistrelli (2/1); Mister Universum (16/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +9 points

----------

Newton Abbot 07.07.20

1.40

Hiconic [30F] 9/2 WINS

Peat Moss [14F] 6/1 third

Debt Of Honour [21F] 12/1 sixth

American Dreamer [20F] 22/1 seventh; 7 ran

2.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.40 

No qualifiers; 8 ran

3.10

No qualifiers; 9 ran

3.45

No qualifiers; 8 ran

4.20

Hereia [32F] 8/1 fifth

Grapevine [23F] 14/1 sixth; 7 ran

4.50

Teaser [35F] 12/1 sixth; 9 ran

5.20

No qualifiers; 8 ran

5.50

No qualifiers; 9 ran

Newton Abbot aggregates:

74 runners

7 qualifiers

1 winner: Hiconic (9/2)

Profit / Loss to one point win stake: -1.5 points

----------

Stratford 08.07.20

12.15

No qualifiers; 8 ran

12.45

Beat The Judge [28F] 5/1 third

Oborne Lady [23F] 250/1 seventh; 9 ran

1.20

I'lletyougonow [31F] 25/1 second; 9 ran

1.50

Lady Reset [14F] 4/1 fourth; 11 ran

2.20

Romanor [33F] 28/1 WINS

Et Moi Alors [7F] 20/1 sixth; 10 ran

2.50

My Renaissance [20F] 8/1 seventh; 10 ran

3.20

Jamacho [17F] 11/4 WINS

Chelsea's Boy [23F] fifth 25/1; 9 ran

3.50

No qualifiers; 7 ran

4.20 

Valkenburg [23F] 13/8f PU; 8 ran

Stratford aggregates:

81 runners

10 qualifiers

2 winners: Romanor (28/1); Jamacho (11/4)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +21.75

----------

Market Rasen 10.07.20

12.00

Bear Valley [14F] 9/2 second

For Pleasure [15F] 13/2 third

Crimson King [17F] 40/1 tenth; 12 ran

12.30

No qualifiers; 7 ran

1.00

No qualifiers; 8 ran

1.30

No qualifiers; 9 ran

2.05

Red Force One [13F] 5/1 WINS

Fair Mountain [24F] 12/1 second

Brandon Castle [20F] 11/2 fourth

Fiesole [34F] 20/1 seventh

Valentino Dancer [22F] 15/2 ninth

Red Tornado [22F] 33/1 PU; 10 ran

2.40

Really Super [38F] 25/1 WINS

Fidux [31F] 14/1 second

San Benedeto [24F] 17/2 eighth

Adrrastos [20F] 16/1 PU; 17 ran

3.15

Searching [10F] 8/1 WINS

Mantovani [19F] 15/2 third; 6 ran

3.50 

No qualifiers; 6 ran

4.20 

No qualifiers; 7 ran

Market Rasen aggregates:

82 runners

15 qualifiers

3 winners: Red Force One (5/1); Really Super (25/1); Searching (8/1)

Profit / loss to 1 point win stake: +26 points

----------

According to the back of my fag packet a 1 point win wager on runners on their first run back over jumps after a pipe-opener on the Flat in June is currently showing a profit of 47.25 points. 

Time for a lie-down I think.

Heaven - or hell?

The wet and windy weather forecast will certainly have an affect on tomorrow's QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot but it's likely to prove far more problematic for Ffos Las where The New One, Clyne and Sire De Grugy are amongst the declarations for the Ladbrokes Welsh Champion Hurdle at 4.25.

Amateur Mr Zak Baker picks up the ride on The New One and can claim five; regular pilot Sam Twiston-Davies is on duty at Stratford. Now eleven, Sire De Grugy's best days are probably in the past but here he races off a hurdles mark of just 147 - his chase mark is 165. His price has fluctuated noticeably - a 7/2 shot mid-afternoon, Gary Moore's charge is quoted 6/1 at the time of writing. Bottom weight Remiluc races from out of the handicap but is the only one with a recent run to his name.

West Approach, third behind Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, makes his debut over the larger obstacles in the Ladbrokes Download The App Beginners' Chase at 3.20. Barry Geraghty is aboard Brelan D'As for owner J P McManus.

The uncertainty over the weather tempers enthusiasm for a wager, particularly at this early stage of the season.

Bristol De Mai was exceptional at the beginning of the year when he destroyed his field in the Peter Marsh at Haydock but subsequently his jumping wasn't up to scratch behind Native River at Newbury and he then finished 20 lengths behind Sizing John in the Gold Cup. Tomorrow he picks up the trail at a far less exalted level in the totepool Live Info Download The App Handicap Chase (3.00 Stratford). He's only six but seems to have been around for ever; in seasons past he has needed the first run.

Paul Nicholls' Roman De Senam is a warm order to come home in front having won convincingly at Chepstow six days ago. Aged just five, he has won two of his eight chase starts but I feel this is more competitive than the market would have us believe.

Nicky Henderson's Days Of Heaven is a big price and is of some interest although the ground is softer than ideal - essentially he wants good ground and currently the official going is described as good to soft.

This one was beaten some 14 lengths into seventh behind Alcala in the Market Rasen Summer Plate back in July; a few were slightly disappointed with that effort - the form book notes the gelding 'gave problems beforehand' - and he faded approaching the last.

He has won previously at this track and goes off a mark one pound lower; I feel there may be more to come and that makes the 16/1 on offer tempting.

Essentially I want the wind to dry the track out, the rain to stay away. The BBC's weather forecast predicts a dry sunny morning with rain arriving mid-afternoon.

Provided it rides no worse than good to soft and the eight make it to post, I intend to take a small early season each-way interest in Days Of Heaven.             

A teatime tip

Tesco's online customers may have struggled to get their PG Tips recently; I'm happy to report there have been no such problems here...

The continuing dry weather has meant that a number of high profile horses are set to miss intended engagements this weekend but at the time of writing the Nicky Henderson trained pair - My Tent Or Yours and Hargam - are both declared for the Listed Hurdle at Kempton on Sunday.

I put up Lil Rockerfeller for last week's Silver Trophy at Chepstow but in the event Neil King;s inmate wasn't allowed to take his chance and connections have opted not to run in this Saturday's Welsh Champion Hurdle (Ffos Las 4.10).

Welsh Shadow, trained by the in-form Dan Skelton and owned by Dai Walters, heads the market and has been talked up over the summer but this is no walk in the park; Garde La Victoire may have struggled over the larger obstacles towards the end of last season but he sets a very high standard.

Regular readers will know that last season Johnny Og, after foiling a cunning plan of mine, went on to right that particular wrong by obliging at a nice price in a Newbury novices' chase.

Martin Keighley's charge held a five-day entry for tomorrow's totequadpot Four Places In Four Races Handicap Chase (Stratford 3.15), worth over £15,000 to the winner. Johnny boasts previous winning form at the course but he hasn't been declared, presumably on account of the ground.

All of which led me to take a closer look at this race.

Gordon Elliott sends over Mountain King from Ireland; this one heads the market but I've noted that four of his five wins have come at right-handed tracks (Perth twice, Ludlow and Ascot one apiece) while his Warwick win in 2013 was in a bumper.

Both No Likey and Roman Flight have been busy over the summer - Roman Flight has had no less than ten runs since early May. At the age of eleven What A Laugh is probably past his best and No Buts has done most of his racing on soft ground which leaves Mont Royale and Top Cat Henry as potential plays against the favourite.

The former, owned by Phil Tufnell Racing Limited, won a Class 3 event at Worcester the last day and as a result has a seven pound penalty to carry.

Last year Top Cat Henry won a handicap chase at Fontwell before finishing threequarters of a length second to Carrigmorna King in this race; connections have opted to follow the same route again this year.

Henry looked unlucky when being badly hampered and brought down by eventual winner Antony at Fontwell a fortnight ago; the silver lining is he starts off a mark four pounds higher than last year.

With Dr Richard Newland's current win strike rate over 24%, Top Cat Henry, generally a 7/2 shot, is the suggested play against the favourite.

In the event he obliges, the teas are on me. Every little helps.

National considerations

We're two weeks away from A.P. McCoy's final Grand National.

Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - his mount in the race will be significantly overbet. If he were to pass the post in front, he's likely to retire on the spot.

Earlier in the week a colleague mailed me an article entitled 'Small data: how much would you have won backing McCoy?'

You won't be surprised to learn that a £1.00 level stakes investment on all his rides since January 2nd 2000 returns a deficit of £1744.75. Respectfully I pointed out to my colleague that over a similar period I developed any number of far more sophisticated approaches to giving away money to bookmakers.

A report in The Times today focuses on another jockey likely to generate publicity in the forthcoming fortnight; Sean Bowen bids to become the first 17 year old to win the race since Bruce Hobbs rode Battleship to victory in 1938.

Bowen is set to partner Mon Parrain for Paul Nicholls in the showpiece but still has to ride one more chase winner (10 required) before satisfying the stringent eligibility criteria established for the race.

Tomorrow he's aboard  Edmund Kean for father Peter in Stratford's snappily-entitled Bordeaux Undiscovered La Fleur Morange Handicap Chase. Having failed to complete on both runs this season, Edmund doesn't look to hold the most obvious chance in Bowen's search to qualify.

I need to do some more work on the National entries in the coming week; as regular readers know to their cost, I tend to favour horses that have previously shown form over the unique fences.

That said, I'll pass on the one tip I've received to date.

A respected form student is keen on the chance of Jim Culloty's Spring Heeled. Last year this one won the Kim Muir at the Festival, finished fifth in the Whitbread and was just pipped for third in the Galway Plate behind Road To Riches (third in this year's Gold Cup).

The National has been the target all along - stable form is the concern.

After the Lord Mayor's show

Inevitably there's something of an air of 'after the Lord's Mayor's show' about tomorrow's cards.

I've been waiting a while for King's Tempest and he goes in the opening novices' hurdle at Newbury.

I saw this one win a Warwick bumper about this time last year; there was talk afterwards of Cheltenham entries but in the summer the gelding moved to Warren Greatrex. On his first run for new connections the gelding was beaten two lengths by Jollyallan who went on to finish eighth behind Douvan in the Supreme at the Festival.

Decent enough form but Nicky Henderson saddles Flat-bred Hassle (by Montjeu) who was beaten just over ten lengths on his hurdling debut by stablemate Cardinal Walter who in turn was beaten six lengths by Qewy, fifth behind Douvan at the Festival.

One who looked to be coming back last time was Graeme McPherson's Harry Hunt; he's declared in Stratford's 3.50. At odds of 50/1 this one was fifth at Doncaster 31 days ago, jumping the last in second place before weakening over a longer trip.

He's of interest in this Stratford race and there's a pointer 15 minutes beforehand when the Doncaster second and fourth, Western Jo and Our Mick, contest the 3.35 at Bangor. The winner at Doncaster, Milan Bound, was amongst the five-day entries for Kelso's 2.50 but connections have decided not to take up the option.

I'll take an each-way interest in Harry Hunt (has won previously at this track) provided:
- Western Jo and Our Mick show up well at 3.35;
- Layers offer10/1.

Back in training...

Having been sent out to grass over the summer, I've only recently 'come back in' and as result will need  a few more weeks before coming to hand...


At a Warwick midweek meeting last March Nicky Henderson's mare Polly Peachum caught my eye while King's Tempest claimed the concluding bumper for the Twiston-Davies operation; both will be of interest when they re-appear.


Since then Warwick has held its final Flat meeting (Bank Holiday Monday, August 25th) as the course pursues its aim of becoming 'a top quality small jumps course.'


A few miles down the road Towcester has sold off seven of its NH fixtures deeming the decision  to diversify into greyhound racing a commercial necessity.


And Peddlers Cross, the 2011 Champion Hurdle runner-up, has been retired.


At Stratford tomorrow I'm tempted to chance David Pipe's Purple 'n Gold in the 3.55 provided the tissue price of 5/1 is available on the day. This one was beaten by Roman Flight over course and distance in May but held every chance before making a mess of the last. Although racing from out of the handicap here, at the weights he holds a chance of reversing the form and jockey Kieron Edgar claims five.


That said, having just returned from the summer vacation, I'm racing some way off the pace.

Some jumping links for Saturday's cards

Pressed for time, so rather brief notes this evening...

Dual purpose handler Ian Williams has some interesting runners around the country tomorrow.

At Chester Swinging Hawk tries to repeat last year's victory in the Kozel Handicap at 4.15; he faces a stiff enough task off a rating six pounds higher. Swnymor, ninth behind runaway winner Our Conor in the 2013 Triumph Hurdle, has his first run for J. J. Quinn in the same race.    

Gifted Leader is getting on a bit these days but took a Class 3 Market Rasen hurdle with the minimum of fuss off a mark of 120 last month. Rated 82 on the Flat he makes some appeal as an each-way wager in Newmarket's 5.15 and George Downing can claim five but 10/1 isn't particularly generous. The gelding finished second behind Veiled in the 2011 running of this race; Veiled went on to win the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot that year.

Williams saddles two at Stratford's evening meeting. Sonofagun arrives in good form to contest the Severn Cider Handicap Chase at 7.25 while the consistent Fredo, entered in the three and a half mile handicap chase at 6.25, should be thereabouts.

Five Star Wilsham did the blog a favour at Ffos Las last week and goes again in that 6.25 race; trainer Twiston-Davies certainly isn't letting the grass grow... With the benefit of hindsight, the gelding was well in that day and has been raised seven pounds for his trouble; this looks much more competitive but likely favourite Oscarslad is taking on seasoned handicappers here and makes a market which contains several credible winners.

I'm going to stay loyal to Five Star Wilsham who holds a better chance of conceding weight all round on drying ground and should certainly see out the trip.    

Two low-key jumpers

The Flat takes centre stage this weekend with big meetings at Doncaster and Dubai, while Stratford and Uttoxeter offer more humble fare over the sticks.

Two jumpers caught my passing interest, both declared to run at Warwick a week last Wednesday but both withdrawn, possibly on account of quicker ground.

Prouts Pub (Stratford 1.55) had previously won a bumper on the all-weather at Lingfield. He has his first run for Nick Gifford who has sent out three winners from just 10 runners this month. Likely favourite Massena sets a reasonable standard off a mark of 128 but was beaten at Taunton on Monday.

Miss Lucky Penny (Uttoxeter 3.55) was withdrawn from the mares' handicap hurdle won impressively by Polly Peachum. Previously she had been beaten threequarters of a length by Wily Fox on her handicap debut at Warwick and connections have decided to have another go - Will Kennedy replaces five pound claimer R J McCarth in the saddle. At the weights there's little between the pair but I'm guessing Miss Lucky Penny will be ridden closer to the pace this time...

Two September selections for Stratford

Two quick selections for Stratford tomorrow.

Rhum goes in the 4.30 following a pipe-opener over an inadequate trip at Ffos Las 16 days ago. Previously Twiston-Davies' charge ran well to finish fourth behind Monsieur Cadou in the Tim Molony at Haydock. He comes to this fresher than all his rivals, with any further rain likely to help the cause.

Just five face the starter in the 5.05 with Bennys Quest the likely favourite as he looks to chalk up his third win on the trot. Giant O Murchu was disappointing on occasions last term so I'll side with Synthe Davis and Tony McCoy.

NHotes and a beer

A very quick glance through the weekend cards...

Peter Bowen's dual-purpose mare Big Time Billy goes for an astonishing seventh consecutive win in the Stayers' Handicap at York (4.50) tomorrow. On Sunday the same handler sends Kian's Delight to Perth (2.30) while Dineur goes to Stratford for The Stratford Summer Cup (3.50), a very tight-looking handicap indeed. My concern about Dineur's chance would be that firm ground may not suit.

Writing in the Weekender Marcus Buckland makes a solid case for Solaras Exhibition in The Stratford Summer Salver (3.20) at the same meeting. This one was considered a 'lively outsider' by connections for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham; Solaras Exhibition would represent a value play should previous course and distance winner Castlemorris King be sent off favourite, as seems likely.

Finally I see The Times, in conjunction with Marston's brewery, is running a competition around The Ashes Series to win a year's supply of beer - and the brewer's Pedigree product would seem an appropriate tipple for any racing fan.

'Howzat for a great prize?' asks the blurb.

Well, not too impressive I'm afraid - the small print indicates the prize consists of 96 bottles of the aforementioned beer.

According to my miserable calculations, that equates to just 1.85 bottles per week. Now, I'm making no claims to be the world's biggest beer drinker but that allowance would barely cover one calendar month, never mind one calendar year.

'Enjoy responsibly' is what they like to tell us...

An evening session

In the Racing Post this week Steve Dennis has written a series of articles ('Evening Sessions') looking at selected evening meetings from around the country; today's piece about Kempton bemoans the lack of atmosphere at the Surrey track.

Yesterday evening, for the first time in quite a while, I watched a race in a bookmaker's shop. If Steve thinks there's no atmosphere at Kempton, he should have been in the Coral shop where I managed to catch the second half of the 6.25 from Worcester.

As I departed the deserted premises, a voice from somewhere beyond the counter pointedly exclaimed, 'That'll be one pound please!'

The comment must have been aimed at me - there was no else in the shop.

Have to smile, don't you?

There will be no lack of atmosphere at tomorrow's evening meeting at Stratford.

In the opening novices' handicap hurdle I'll back Peter Bowen's Vinnie My Boy. In the Weekender Stable Tour (3-7 April 2013) the handler said of his charge, 'He is a very smart horse...[who] has been handicapped on his soft-ground form but is better on faster.' Since that comment the horse has run twice, finishing third on both occasions on good to soft and soft ground. He should get quicker ground here and the application of first-time cheekpieces should help the concentration. The tissue shows 8/1 about Vinnie My Boy so I'll take an each-way interest at that price, though probably not at the Coral outlet mentioned above...

Well Mett ran well on his first try over the the larger obstacles in a beginners' chase at Wetherby 11 days ago; he'll stay the trip but faces a jolly stiff task giving weight to more experienced rivals in the 6.45.

The Class 2 chase and hurdle (at 7.45 and 8.15) look pretty competitive but course and distance winner Up To The Mark would be of interest in the 8.45 provided first-time blinkers can work their magic.

Clondaw Draft looks the one to beat in the bumper.            

A bumper weekend...

Looking at the five day declarations earlier in the week, I'd identified a couple running in bumpers that were of some interest while everyone else was concentrating on the Flat.

Oliver Sherwood has his team in good form at the moment and Luci Di Mezzanotte's head second to The Pirate Queen from the Alan King yard last time read well. King's inmate finished fifth in the Aintree listed mares' bumper on her previous run. Luci had an entry in the Bangor bumper at 4.50 on Saturday but it looks as though Fergal O'Brien's previous winner Down Ace has scared her off...

Peter Bowen's Rolling Maul held a couple of weekend options at Uttoxeter and Stratford on Sunday but the handler has decided to take up neither - instead Bowen sends The Road Ahead to the Warwickshire track where Prideofthecastle from David Pipe's stable is likely to provide a stern test.

It's also worth noting that Propsect Wells, well beaten behind Zarkander in the Aintree Hurdle last time, tries fences for the first time on Stratford's card.     

National coverage

It barely seems a week since I was writing a post with selections for the 2013 National...

Racing breathed a collective sigh of relief as the participants returned safe and sound; it didn't seem to matter that the winner was an unconsidered 66/1 longshot, Auroras Encore.

Perhaps I should qualify that statement - it mattered to the layers, as William Hill CEO Ralph Topping made clear in his post-race blog: 'But I'm a bookmaker first and foremost and it's our William Hill shareholders who top the podium today.'

Ouch.

Generally Channel 4 appeared well satisfied with viewing figures which peaked at 8.9 million but certain aspects of their coverage left me decidedly dissatisfied.

After two false starts in the Topham the previous day, the start to this year's National was always going to come under close scrutiny. The C4 team very nearly missed the boat completely with commentator Simon Holt still talking to camera while in the background eagle-eyed viewers could spot the 40 runners merrily setting off on their way.

The post-race re-run was slow to be compiled and, when it arrived, verged on the shambolic. The editorial decision to show the field jumping selected fences from different angles quickly led to confusion amongst the commentators, never mind the viewers.

Nick Luck's valiant efforts to keep commentating colleagues in check as well as the show on the road were admirable but in vain; he was fighting something of a losing battle when his instructions to 'stop' the re-run in order to discuss a particular point were then completely ignored by the station's technical team.

I'm still not sure whether I saw a replay of the three unseated riders at the Canal Turn on the first circuit...

Naively, I thought I could hop off to the Channel 4 On Demand site (4oD) to catch a replay of the great race. Not so. I was offered a replay of Alan Carr's Grand National Specstacular and Friday evening's excellent How To Win the Grand National but no replay of the race itself.

Enough!

Tomorrow's jumping cards have a low-key feel; I haven't done much homework. That said, I couldn't help but notice Claret Cloak heading the weights for the 4.15 handicap hurdle at Stratford. Now, Emma Lavelle has had a season from hell but this one was third behind Raya Star in a listed race at Ascot before Christmas and has form behind My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury and held an entry in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham before connections opted for the County Hurdle where the gelding finished mid-division.

Lavelle may have had only one winner since December 15th (Killyglass in the Aintree bumper last Saturday at odds of 20/1) but better ground is likely to suit her charge here and the tissue price of 10/1 looks decent each-way value for a horse with this profile running in a Stratford Class 3 handicap.

Brief thoughts on Saturday's NH cards

Three National Hunt cards tomorrow with the Old Roan Chase the highlight at Aintree, yet top jockeys Ruby Walsh, Aidan Coleman and 'Choc' Thornton choose to ride at Chepstow while champion AP McCoy settles for Stratford.

Eleven go in the Old Roan, where only one favourite has obliged in the previous eight runnings while a horse aged nine or older has won on six occasions in the same timeframe (Monet's Garden three times). Paul Nicholls' five-year-old Pacha Du Polder has a few novice chases under his belt (three wins, one unplaced and one unseated rider) and may struggle against more experienced opponents; the only runner not making his seasonal debut is Mahogany Blaze who could therefore be a little sharper than some of his rivals. I've a soft spot for Nacarat who has done this blog one or two favours over the years and tends to show his best on good ground but this renewal looks particularly tricky so I'm not going to play - much will depend on fitness. In spite of the stats, I'd expect the winner to come from the younger brigade.

Previously with Guillaume Macaire, the four-year-old Unioniste carries John Hales' colours (remember Azertyuiop?) and, having already won a chase at Auteuil, will be a popular choice for the 4.35, a race the Nicholls stable has won on three occasions since 2004. Having said that, he's unlikely to have things all his own way - Carlito Brigante won at Cheltenham last Saturday. This one wouldn't be guaranteed to reproduce that effort one week on but this sharp track should suit his style of running.

2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator held a five-day entry in the Aintree finale but connections have decided the grey will make his hurdling debut elsewhere.

The Persian War (3.40 Chepstow) sees Nicholls' Wonderful Charm make his debut in this country. The gelding has been well-touted for some time - in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley is quoted as saying '[Wonderful Charm is] one of the best young prospects I have managed to get out of France in recent years.' Aidan Coleman rode a fine race from the front to steal a listed novice hurdle at Kempton on Hawkhill six days ago but he prefers Anthony Honeyball's Ballybough Pat here. This one has surprised connections and won 15 days ago at Carlisle - I'll take the chance against the favourite provided he's priced 9/2 or bigger.

As always, the Silver Trophy (4.15) is most competitive. The one that catches my eye at a price is Robinson Collonges. Rated 134, he races off the same mark as when third behind Arthurian Legend in this last year. After that, he went off the rails over the larger obstacles but I'm banking on new handler Harry Fry working some magic. The stable has had a couple of winners in the past week and connections try a toungie-tie on their charge for the first time - at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Robinson Collonges is worth an each-way interest. I also looked at Rebecca Curtis' Meganisi but in this week's Weekender the trainer tells readers she thinks two and a half miles may be 'a little too far for him as he has bags of speed'.

Following a break, Roc De Guye ran well for a long way at Huntingdon last time before fading to finish seventh. He was dropped another four pounds for that effort and goes in the 3.55 at Stratford where the shorter trip and Timmy Murphy in the saddle should help. He rates an each-way chance if priced in double figures.

Punters sat up and took note of new trainer John Ferguson last season. Printmaker goes in Stratford's 4.30 but was sent off 11/8 favourite last time and disappointed. The stable hasn't had a winner since October 10th, recording thirteen consecutive losses.

Suggestions for Stratford

The passing of Lord Oaksey earlier in the week has brought many affectionate tributes including this one from The Daily Telegraph, a newspaper he started to work for in 1957.

In my mind's eye he belongs to an era of TV racing coverage where the presenter sat in front of camera sporting a trilby which was invariably doffed to viewers in the most polite fashion before the first race; Oaksey was second only to the great John Rickman in that respect.

If I have one single thing in common with The Noble Lord it's my ability to tip losers; Oaksey was not renowned for his skill as a tipster but he carried on regardless and in that sense proved a personal inspiration - this brief post before the 2006 Derby acknowledged the fact.

On the streets of Stratford last Satruday I saw some trilbies together with some tweed (that's Stratford-upon-Avon, you understand, not Stratford, East London), a sure sign that autumn is just around the corner when the jumping game moves up a gear or two.

Tomorrow's feature at the Warwickshire track is a race carrying a misleadingly pedestrian name -the Walls And Ceilings International Handicap Hurdle. This Class Two event over two miles and half a furlong has attracted a very competitive entry of sixteen, is likely to be run on good quick ground and is worth over twelve and a half thousand to the winner.

Recent winners Monte Cavallo, Laudatory, Hes Our Lad and Gay Sloane are all likely to prove popular while the bottom five run from out of the handicap.

Donald McCain fields two - on RP ratings Star In Flight should be thereabouts; the handler will have an idea of the gelding's capabilities through stablemate Absinthe who was second in the Scottish Summer Hurdle at Perth three weeks ago. Two from that race contest this - His Excellency and Smalib Monterg. The former hasn't been with the Pipe outfit long, having run in the Galway Plate previously - it would be no surprise to see him come good here - while the latter was tipped each-way by the blog for Perth and ran into a place. In a very competitive event, I'm going to stick with Smalib Monterg - a previous course winner -  who will represent reasonable each-way value if the tissue price of 14/1 is available on the day.

In the past I've done better than I had any right to expect by opposing favourites at this course so, for the brave, course and distance winner Papadron represents a play against Ballybough Gorta in the trappy-looking 4.20; Allerford Jack has been busy clocking up a four-timer over the summer but he unseated last time and there has to be a query about Sagredo's ability to last home.

However I'm not really inclined to oppose the short-priced favourites in either the 2.40 or the 3.15.

At 2.40 Rebeccas Choice and Tough Talkin Man don't really make much appeal against Geneva Geyser although that one hasn't been foot perfect in his first two chase starts.

One Term has to concede at least a stone to his rivals at 3.15 including newcomers Planetoid (rated 85 on the Flat), Good Boy Jackson (82 on the Flat last autumn, although it looks as though McCoy prefers to ride the favourite) and Danehill Dante (68). Having said all that, it's difficult to get away from Rebecca Curtis' charge who has made all to win his last two and could well repeat the trick in this.

2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

Low-key jumping fare

The Flat takes centre stage this weekend with the Dubai World Cup meeting at Meydan and, a bit nearer to home, the William Hill Lincoln at Doncaster.

The jumping fare on offer looks decidedly run-of-the-mill - I don't intend to play.

A few notes which may be of interest... The maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter has been split into two divisions - Raktiman looks to have decent claims in the first leg (1.55) but will be priced accordingly while Mabel Tasman might offer some each-way value against rivals from bigger yards in the second division (3.05). The mare appeared to run out of petrol (know the feeling?) at Wincanton the other day over two miles six; the slighlty shorter trip and better ground here should help.

At the same track...

Saint Luke (4.10) boasted some smart form last year, finishing twelfth behind Cheltenian in the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival bumper before finishing fifth behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree version. Unfortunately Peter Bowen's gelding has failed to reproduce that this season and with the stable out of form can't be considered.

The booking of McCoy for H'ella Petite in the mares' bumper (5.15) catches the eye.

Ruby Walsh rides two for Paul Nicholls (Balding Banker 3.05 and Tonic Mellysse 3.40) before dashing off to Stratford to partner Whisky Yankee in their finale. Previous winner Kings Lad has a penalty to carry - the hint may be worth taking.

At Ascot on Sunday I'll monitor Orthodox Lad's running in the 3.30 - I'm not sure whether this one is under-rated or not. There's no denying he was run off his feet in the Adonis at Kempton but he will appreciate the quicker ground.

In the concluding hunters' chase Master Medic would be worth a second look if the tissue price of 5/1 becomes available.

Finally, for those who wish to place wagers on runners with tenuous connections to rock & heavy metal music, Rockin' Horse Racing Tips may just be the site you've been waiting for... ;)           

Brief thoughts on Saturday's jump cards

Having only just returned from a(nother) losing day at Ludlow races (report to follow), I'm fortunate enough to have insufficient time to work on the form for tomorrow's meetings - as a result I have saved myself from identifying additional ways in which to lose even more child benefit allowance.

Whatever, much of the this evening's talk is around the BHA's 'tinkering' with the new whip rules. It would be fair to say that the changes have hardly been met with open arms, either by the jockeys or their professional association, the PJA. One rider who will be pleased with the BHA's decision is Christophe Soumillon as this evening he's likely to be around £52,000 better off.

Master Minded returns to action tomorrrow in the Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase at Aintree where the going is reported as good to soft, good in places. A fiield of just three is most disappointing; on paper the race looks a match between Paul Nicholls' charge and Albertas Run who receives ten pounds - on these terms there's little between the pair.

In the concluding maiden hurdle I'll keep an eye on Cinders And Ashes who ran well for a long way behind Cheltenian in the Festival bumper.

At Chepstow the Persian War Novices' Hurdle should prove useful for future reference. The one I'll monitor is Evan Williams' Charm School (rated 98 on the Flat). This gelding was bought out of John Gosden's yard after winning the November Handicap at Doncaster in 2009. In a recent Stable Tour article in the Weeknder, the handler indicated the key was teaching the horse to switch off in his races; he concludes, 'If we get it right, he could be a very smart recruit to hurdling.'

A few interesting runners in the Silver Trophy (4.15)  including two chasers, The Giant Bolster and Robinson Collonges, who will be looking for a confidence-boosting run over hurdles. The former, who has done work with Yogi Breisner over the summer, sports first-time cheekpieces and  has the Paddy Power Gold Cup as his target. Tim Vaughan's Architrave is a young horse with potential; he appeared to lose his way last season but later stomach ulcers were diagnosed and he comes here having had a pipe-opener at this course a fortnight ago over a trip short of his best.

The Nicholls pair Tataniano and Woolcombe Folly will be popular in the 4.50 but Gilbarry is the interesting one, having won the Future Champions Novices' Chase at Ayr in April. This is his first run for Jonjo O'Neill, having moved down from Malcolm Jefferson's yard over the summer.

At Stratford I wouldn't take a short price about Karasenir in the opener. Philip Hobbs' course and distance winner has won on his last two outings but they haven't been the most competitive of affairs and this looks a tougher test.

Two tentative suggestions for Musselburgh, one for Stratford

Tomorrow two Musselburgh races will be run over one mile five furlongs with several horses boasting some sort of NH form; the Scottish Racing Stayers' Consolation Handicap at 4.45 precedes the Scottish Racing Stayers' Final at 5.15. The going is reported as good, good to soft in places.

In the Consolation Handicap, the following runners have some previous NH form:
Ananda Kanda, Pokfulham, Stags Leap, Amir Pasha, Grand Daimond, Grandad Bill, Dane Cottage, Red Skipper.

Ananda Kanda, rated 67, appears to like cut underfoot and was a staying-on third in a Market Rasen novices' hurdle on her penultimate run. Earlier this year Pokfulham won a Perth intermediate hurdle over two and a half miles before finishing out with the washing in the Swinton at Haydock; the bay gelding disappointed last time but the visor, left off on that occasion, is refitted here so Jim Goldie's charge is of interest. Stags Leap has shown better form on his last two runs for this yard although the fact he was walked to post last time suggests he's not entirely straightforward. Amir Pasha has won a Carlisle intermediate hurdle and has form behind speed merchant Santa's Son but was worn down at Redcar just two days ago. On his penultimate run Grand Diamond, another from the Jim Goldie yard, finished second to Peter Bowen's well regarded mare With Grace who has won six of her thirteen starts. Jim Goldie also trains likely favourite Grandad Bill who won on the Flat at Ayr last month before finishing behind Los Nadis in a class 3 handicap hurdle at Perth. Dane Cottage was beaten on the all-weather last time but Red Skipper bounced back to take a Market Rasen seller at odds of 15/2. Grandad Bill is respected in a competitive affair but the suggestion is Pokfulham each-way at around 8/1.

In the Final the following horses have NH form:
Meetings Man, Jewelled Dagger, The Galloping Shoe, Los Nadis, Mason Hindmarsh, Jonny Delta.

Meetings Man was rated 122 when unseating Graham Lee in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle here in February; he races off a mark of 78 and the jockey can claim another five pounds. Course and distance winner Jewelled Dagger likes to race from the front but disappointed at Doncaster the last time. The Galloping Shoe has better form over shorter trips but Los Nadis is a horse I like - I was annoyed to have missed his last run in a Perth handicap hurdle where he won with Grandad Bill well behind in third. After winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree Mason Hindmarsh didn't cut the mustard in a Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham won by Sam Winner; he would be of some interest at a price, a comment that also applies to Jonny Delta whose seventh in the Aintree bumper in April reads well - some well-regarded types were behind on that occasion.
Suggestion: Jonny Delta each-way 14/1 or bigger.

A very quick note on Stratford's opening novice hurdle. Course and distance winner Tatispout carries penalties but this filly sets a reasonable standard with a rating of 130. Last year Russian George took this off 117, beating Saltagioo (128) a short-head. Later tonight I'll check ratings for other recent winners but at this stage Tatispout is of interest coming to this fresh; on her last run she finished down the field in the Swinton at Haydock.            

Friday night ramblings

There's a decent enough card at Stratford tomorrow evening but I imagine the attendance is likely to suffer as Manchester United play Barcelona in the Champions League final at Wembley. The going at the Warwickshire track is described as good, good to firm in places, with 18mm of rain falling on Thursday. 11 go for The Gambling Prince Trophy at 7.20; a case can be made for most of them. Invisible Man pipped Swing Bill a neck at Worcester ten days ago with Commemoration Day another ten and a half lengths back in fifth; the winner that day may well struggle to confirm placings on the revised ratings. Two Welsh handlers in good form are Rebecca Curtis and Peter Bowen; the former trains The Jigsaw Man but I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with Bowen's Sunday City (16/1 in tonight's tissue). This one isn't easy to catch right and isn't certain to give his running but he retains some ability having won the Macer Gifford Handicap Chase at Huntingdon last autumn and appeared somewhat unlucky when slipping up at Ludlow on his penultimate run.

Another Welsh handler in form Tim Vaughan (25% strike rate in past fortnight) saddles The Ferbane Man in the Warwickshire Hunt Handicap Chase at 7.55. This one is a trier and a stayer but in a stable tour article last October the handler said 'He loves bottomless ground and grinds the opposition down.' With the going on the quick side I'll watch from the sideleines.

The booking of  McCoy for Amercian Art in the opener catches my eye. The champ has ridden Rebecca Curtis' well-regarded gelding Praxiteles before. I'll check the price before deciding whether to bet.

I'm sure Sir Alex Ferguson would welcome any diversion from the pressures of the build-up to a Champions League final but his two runners at Sandown last night failed to oblige. Pausanias finished fourth in a listed stakes while the somewhat inappropriately named Magic City could only finish third despite being sent off 10/11 favourite in another listed event. The irony is Magic City was beaten by Pyman's Theory, part-owned by Michael Owen. After pulling a stunt like that, I'd expect Owen to be leaving Old Trafford during the close season. Blue Bajan, a former Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner, took the two mile Henry II Stakes.

Following on from that prompt, horses with jumps form racing over a distance of more than one and a half miles on the Flat tomorrow include Cotillon, My Arch, La Estrella and Kayef in Haydock's opener; of these, Cotillon and Michael Scudamore's Kayef are of interest. The latter has a Sandown juvenile hurdle to his name and finished down the field in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. The colt doesn't look the easiest of rides but ran well to finish a close-up fourth at Ascot the last time, priced 33/1. Coral bet 16/1 for tomorrow's race.

In Catterick's 4.05 Micky Hammond's Heart Of  Dubai won over course and distance the last time but isn't guaranteed to reproduce that effort while mare Madamlily looks to have a tough enough task giving weight to all her rivals.

Newmarket's finale includes Veiled, Gifted Leader and Blue Spartan. Nicky Henderson has booked Kieren Fallon for Veiled. Gifted Leader has won a Stratford Class 3 hurdle; rated 130 over hurdles, the gelding goes off a mark of 77 here and would be of some interest for each-way punters if priced up at 16/1 (as in tonight's tissue). The grey Blue Spartan looks sure to appreciate this trip.