Showing posts with label william hill hurdle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label william hill hurdle. Show all posts

Friday, February 06, 2026

The 2026 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

With today's meetings at Bangor and Sandown - and Sunday's at Exeter - abandoned, I was surprised to see Dan Skelton's mare Let It Rain chalked up clear favourite for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.20 Newbury) because I thought we'd seen more than enough of the wet stuff for the time being. 

The going on the hurdle track is currently described as heavy with 'one small area of standing water'; at the time of writing no inspection is planned, although further rain is forecast.

This race has a long history in various guises; since 1963 only two winners older than seven years of age have come home in front: Neblin (1987) and Geos (2009). 

My starting point is a Class 4 handicap hurdle at Ascot the Friday before Christmas, festively named the Ascot Shop Handicap Hurdle. 

Dance And Glance just held on to pip the fast-finishing All In You a head with Let It Rain third and The Hardest Geezer fourth; one and a quarter lengths covered the first four home and all were ridden from well off the pace.

Let It Rain raced off a mark of 120 for that handicap debut and was subsequently raised four pounds for her troubles; we haven't seen her since. 

Of course, Mr Skelton knows how to lay one out for a race - Superb Story in the 2016 County Hurdle is one that tends to spring to my mind, primarily because I stubbornly refused to bet the beast. 

Earlier this season the trainer saddled another mare, Panic Attack, to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham over two and a half miles and then, 14 days later, sent the same mare out to win the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury over three and a quarter miles. 

The suspicion is this mare is ahead of her mark; the degree of understatement contained in that particular statement will be revealed in due course.

One day after the Ascot Shop Handicap Hurdle Hot Fuss separated winner Wilful and third Alexei in another festively named feature, the Ascot Rotary Club Festive Handicap Hurdle, previously more mundanely referred to as the Ladbrokes.

That was a decent effort from Tom Dascombe's four-year-old, having previously finished well behind Tutti Quanti in the Gerry Feilden. 

On the third day of the new year All In You reversed Ascot form with Dance And Glance (Hot Fuss fourth) at Sandown, coming from well off the pace to beat that rival with something to spare. After that race handler Warren Greatrex said [RP Weekender 07-11.01.26]:

"I took a risk running him so quickly after Ascot but I needed him to get into the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury. I was worried about the heavy ground, which rode like glue, but he handled it well and actually quickened on it. I've got five weeks to get him ready for Newbury. He has plenty of gears and likes a fast pace. I'd also like to run him at Royal Ascot in the summer."

One slight concern - much of his racing to date has been on right-handed tracks. 

13 days later Hot Fuss reversed Ascot form with Wilful in the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle at Windsor (The Hardest Geezer fourth, Milldam fifth, Poet Laureate ninth, Go Dante tenth and Bubl Dubi withdrawn after crashing through the rails and getting loose). A gutsy display from the winner, now rated six pounds higher than when contesting the Gerry Feilden, but that looked a hard race.

The Twiston-Davies yard has previously won this race with a novice (Splash Of Ginge in 2014, Ballyandy in 2019); Un Sens A La Vie makes his handicap debut off a mark of 132. 

His second to Old Park Star at Kempton in November, beaten three lengths conceding six pounds, reads well now, given that Old Park Star is currently 15/8 favourite for the Supreme at the Festival next month. To date he has raced on ground no worse than good to soft.

I must have been the only one who didn't know about Lanesborough when Ben Pauling's charge hosed up eight and a half lengths ahead of Williethebuilder (winner twice since) in a Doncaster handicap hurdle before Christmas. 

He was raised 14 pounds to a mark of 130; some were disappointed with fifth in the Lanzarote next time but it was a respectable effort, beaten 10 lengths.

Top weight Tutti Quanti finished sixth in the Supreme last year and needed the run on seasonal debut behind Celtic Dino in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow. 

He looked good in the Gerry Feilden; Persian War carried 11-13 to victory in 1968 and, in more recent times, Al Dancer (2019), Glory And Fortune (2022) and Iberico Lord (2024) all carried 11-08.

 The Hardest Geezer looks a tough nut and has been thereabouts in his four starts this term without really threatening to do the business.

Milldam has a good record on heavy ground, with Isabelle Ryder's five pounds claim an added bonus. Jamie Snowden's charge has been supported in the market during the day.

Wellington Arch and Wreckless Eric represent the O'Neill yard. The former looks the pick of the pair and beat the latter over two and a half miles at Aintree last spring; his best form is over that longer trip.

Writing in this week's RP Weekender handler Neil Mulholland says of Bucephalus:

"He probably would be a big price for a horse, who if the ground is very soft, will carry a light weight. He could give a good account of himself at decent odds. He was second last time at Haydock and we're very happy with him. He's a tough horse who gives his best."  

I'd imagine the trainer was envisaging a lower weight than 11-08; Harriet Tucker claims seven.

Go Dante, third in the 2024 renewal behind Iberico Lord and L'Eau Du Sud, finished seventh last year behind Joyeuse; Olly Murphy's charge was 26 lengths behind Hot Fuss at Windsor last time and boasts a better record in the Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Veteran Faivoir finished a creditable third in the Greatwood in November but has been well beaten twice since while Poet Laureate looked in the mix in Hot Fuss' race at Windsor before weakening very quickly at the business end.

Of the principals I like the chance of All In You, a £90,000 purchase from the David Maxwell dispersal sale who should have no problems with underfoot conditions. 

At the prices though I'm going to take an each-way interest in Dance And Glance who meets All In You four pounds better off than when beaten one and a half lengths at Sandown last month. The stable has sent out four winners from 12 runners in the past fortnight.

Dance And Glance is the each-way suggestion, 18/1 at the time of writing with bet365, Sky and Paddy Power paying five places.

Friday, February 07, 2025

The 2025 William Hill Hurdle at Newbury

What's this? William Hill sponsoring the Betfair Hurdle? 

It used to be the Tote before that, didn't it? And, before that, Schhh... You Know Who. 

Anyway, the final field of eighteen for tomorrow's William Hill Hurdle (3.35) has some notable absentees including Tellherthename, Hansard and Bo Zenith.

The going at Newbury is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with light rain forecast overnight.

Favourite Secret Squirrel won the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle with something to spare on soft ground at Windsor three weeks ago (with Navajo Indy fourth, Beat The Bat seventh, Go Dante eleventh and Givemefive 30 lengths adrift in thirteenth place) and carries a five pounds penalty here.

Nico De Boinville was described as, on occasions, 'agricultural' by Tom Scudamore in a recent Times article appraising the riding styles of the leading contenders for the David Power Jockeys' Cup; Nico was aboard the winner that day at Windsor and he rides Joyeuse for Nicky Henderson and owner J.P. McManus tomorrow.

The Henderson yard has a good record in this race with six previous wins: Sharpical (1998); Geos (2000 and 2004); Landing Light (2001); My Tent Or Yours (2013); and Iberico Lord (2024).

Grey mare Joyeuse goes off a mark of 123; in the past ten years the lowest official handicap rating of the winner was 132 (Violet Dancer in 2015). 

Two mares have come home in front in the past 30 years: Mysilv (1995); and Spirit Leader (2003).

Navajo Indy, fourth at Windsor, won the Gerry Feilden over course and distance at the end of December (Our Champ third) and meets Secret Squirrel five pounds better off for a three length defeat; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.

The last horse to carry more than 11-08 to victory was Persian War in 1968 which means I haven't looked too closely at the chances of Lump Sum, Iberico Lord and Favour And Fortune. 

Iberico Lord won this last year off a mark of 134 but things haven't gone to plan over the larger obstacles this season and he finished some 20 lengths behind Nemean Lion at Windsor three weeks ago.

Similarly the last horse older than seven to collect the spoils was Geos some 21 years ago so I haven't spent too much time looking at Aucunrisque, Washington, Go Dante and King William Rufus.

That said, the first-named made all to win the 2023 renewal off 138 and, back in November, won an Ascot handicap on good ground off 129 (Mirabad third and Williethebuilder pulled up). 

He looks feasibly weighted off 133 but will need the rain to stay away.

I certainly wouldn't describe myself as au courant with French Flat form (or British Flat form for that matter) but Mirabad's second in a Listed race at Fointainebleau back in November 2023 over one mile seven furlongs looks respectable - he was headed in the final 50 yards.

And he has done well for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole since moving this side of La Manche

Last time at Cheltenham on his second start in a handicap hurdle, the gelding decided he wanted none of the steady early pace set by Magic Seven, pulling his way to the front before the fourth flight and duly winning five and a half lengths. 

The handicapper duly raised him 10 pounds. 

Fiercely Proud brings strong form to the table.

On seasonal debut Ben Pauling's charge had come under pressure when falling two out in an Ascot handicap won by Our Champ. 

He was subsequently sixth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood before pipping Kabral Du Mathan a short head in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas (Our Champ fifth, Favour And Fortune sixth, Go Dante pulled up and Secret Squirrel two lengths third when falling at the final flight).

He has been raised nine pounds for that win to a mark of 137 and probably prefers racing on a right-handed track.

Our Champ's defeat of Break My Soul by a nose at Ascot (Fiercely Proud fell) reads well, particularly as the stable was under a cloud at the time; Freddie Gordon dropped his whip on the run to the line that day but still managed to get the job done.

On Gerry Feilden running Our Champ meets Navajo Indy three pounds better off for a five length defeat which isn't reflected in market prices at the time of writing.

Beat The Bat had Josh The Boss in arrears when second behind Steel Ally over two miles three furlongs at Haydock in November before finishing seven and threequarters lengths behind Secret Squirrel at Windsor. 

Stable form has been a concern this season - odds on chances Anno Power and High Fibre have both been turned over in the past fortnight.

I like Josh The Boss but since 2023 he has been racing over trips around the two and a half mile mark - the step back to two miles may not help the cause.

I've never been convinced by Williethebuilder but Minella Missile, a half brother to Monbeg Genius, went in the notebook after winning a Cheltenham novice hurdle in November 2023. 

At that time handler Evan Williams described him as a staying novice with a turn of foot but he's clearly had problems since; I'm surprised to see him entered up here - he's one for another day maybe.

I had the Harriet Dickin trained Dodger Long pencilled in for this but he never made the five day declarations and I was surprised by the absence of Tellherthename when the final field was announced on Thursday.

Two are on the each-way shortlist: Mirabad and Our Champ.

I've watched a recording of Mirabad's race at Cheltenham again and, to be perfectly honest, I don't quite know what to make it. 

Several of those in behind - Wreckless Eric, Bo Zenith and Spirits Bay - haven't turned up here but the grey Tintintin had previously finished fourth behind Burdett Road in the Greatwood; as the gelding rounded the home turn that day the on-screen speed indicator read 35 mph. 

A fast run two miles will suit his style of racing but this is a step up in class and a current mark of 130 is two pounds below the lowest rated winner of the last ten years.

Plenty of use was made of Our Champ on the front end at Ascot the last day (beaten 27 lengths into fifth behind Fiercely Proud); on Gerry Feilden form he's not too far behind Navajo Indy. 

Our Champ gets the vote.

Our Champ is the each-way suggestion, 25/1 with the sponsors who pay five places; I've taken 22/1 with Paddy Power who are paying six places.