Warwick's Classic Chase 2020

If Unibet ambassador Nicky Henderson thinks he's had a week of it with Altior, he should spare a thought for Harry and Meghan. After a right royal bust-up, they've been told fast track discussions about their future are likely to involve, amongst others, Home Secretary Priti Patel - enough to make anyone want to give up on a Dry January.

I suspect Henderson and Her Majesty could both do with a bit of a restorative and they'll be keen on Keen On providing the necessary cheer in the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (Warwick 2.25).

And what's this? Chancellor Sajid Javid has booked Wednesday 11th March - Champion Chase day - for his first budget speech. Whatever next? Announcing the winner of the Labour Party leadership contest on the same as the Grand National?

The Sussexes may have taken the brave decision to move towards financial independence but this season's blog tips are taking me in completely the opposite direction.

Fair play to Hughie Morrison whose jumpers are doing their best to stem the tide - Maridadi goes in the 3.55 at Wetherby tomorrow - but if this were a boxing match, the ref. would have stopped proceedings some time ago.

The feature on tomorrow's Warwick card is the Classic Chase (3.00) for which thirteen remain at the tine of writing (NRs Rocky's Treasure and previous winner Milansbar); the going is currently described as soft.

Trained by Lucinda Russell, One For Arthur won the 2017 renewal before going on to win the Grand National at Aintree; Big River (from the same stable) held a five-day entry but connections have opted to pass on the long journey south and instead go to Kelso on Sunday.

It's no surprise to see The Conditional head the market. On just his second run for David Bridgwater the gelding beat West Approach at Cheltenham (Crosspark and Captain Chaos pulled up) before finishing a fine second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury behind De Rasher Counter. The handicapper has raised him five pounds for that effort; this will be his first try beyond three and a quarter miles.

I've never previously held any particular reservation about opposing Kimberlite Candy; however his latest effort, a fine second in first-time cheekpieces in the Becher Chase behind Walk In The Mill, certainly caught the eye. The cheekpieces remain in place - J P McManus will expect a bold bid.

Luca Morgan takes seven pounds off top weight Le Breuil who finished seventh in the Becher, some 17 lengths behind Kimbertlite Candy. Ben Pauling's yard wasn't firing on all cylinders at the time and I know his charge won the 2018 National Hunt Chase on soft ground over four miles at Cheltenham but I just feel Le Breuil is a better horse on better ground.

Both Petite Power and Bobo Mac arrive here in rude health; the latter's best chase form appears to be on a right-handed track.

Darlac's lack of chase experience is off-putting but I note that Impulsive Star won last year's renewal on just his sixth start over the larger obstacles (Crosspark third). Neil Mulholland's charge has been pulled up on every start since so connections swap cheekpieces for blinkers in the hope of sparking a revival.

Captain Chaos' second behind Takingrisks in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November reads well but other recent efforts look below par; trainer Dan Skelton has described his charge as 'an unlucky horse last year' but overall his profile is inconsistent.

Heads To The Stars has a nice racing weight and Hugh Nugent claims five but the jumping has caused problems in the past while Joueur Bresilien doesn't look guaranteed to stay.

Veteran Mysteree would be no forlorn hope if in the mood - this one was beaten a neck by Crosspark in the Eider last February and won at Kelso in October.

Writing in the Weekender Paul Kealy picks Kimberlite Candy indicating he had trouble finding one at a price. I know exactly what he means but I'm going to chance last year's third Crosspark who did me a big favour in the Eider and ran well in the Scottish National.

Caroline Bailey's charge has finished well beaten on both starts this term.

He was pulled up behind The Conditional at Cheltenham and then finished 74 lengths behind Lord Du Mesnil at Haydock just before Christmas. Perhaps the spectacles need some heavy-duty adjustment but he looked handy enough four out the last day before tiring; a mistake three from home ended any hope and he was eased when his chance had gone. The handicapper has dropped him two pounds for that effort and Jamie Moore is back in the plate.

Both Sky Bet and  Paddy Power offer 12/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places. Crosspark is the each-way suggestion.
 

Royal Ascot 2013 - Friday

Victory for The Queen's filly Estimate (7/2f) in the Gold Cup earlier today went down well with plenty of punters; it was only slightly less well-received chez moi as the favourite battled on dourly to hold blog selection Simenon a neck on the line...

I'm still looking for a first winner at this year's meet and tomorrow's card looks decidedly difficult.

Battle Of Marengo, beaten two lengths into fourth in the Epsom Derby 20 days ago, is the clear form choice in the King Edward VII Stakes but the colt offers no value and there is a danger he may not have fully recovered from those exertions.

Lady Cecil recorded a poignant victory with Riposte in the Ribblesdale earlier today and saddles Disclaimer in the Queen's Vase In Memory Of Sir Henry Cecil. Coolmore's Leading Light, sired by Montjeu, has to give weight to all his rivals but has the more favourable draw and is well clear on ratings. This is a tough race over two miles for these three-year-olds and will prove even more so if the forecast rain gets into the ground. Disclaimer (9/2) offers some value against favourite Leading Light and is the suggestion in a difficult-looking contest.

Those considering a wager on either of the top two in the feature Coronation Stakes, Just The Judge and Sky Lantern, should note that they have both been drawn wide, in stalls 17 and 16 respectively.

2012 Derby Day deliberations

For some reason or other Queen Elizabeth II has been in the news a bit recently.

Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of her coronation and to mark the occasion Epsom have named the Coronation Cup (2.40) the Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup. Of course, the feature is the Derby with just nine set to face the starter (4.00). Most observers think Camelot is something of a shoo-in with the result Aidan O'Brien's colt will start odds-on and will probably be sent off one of the shortest-priced favourites since the war - the shortest priced winner of the race was Ladas who took the 1894 renewal at odds of 2/9.

If you're not convinced Camelot is the stuff of legend, you may want to look to Andrew Balding's Bonfire to start the fireworks. Those watching the BBC's final coverage of the event would also be well-advised to prepare themselves for some loud shrieks in commentary from Andrew's sister, Clare, if Bonfire has the merest hint of a chance in the final furlong. At 5/1 the colt offers value against the favourite but his temperament could be considered slightly suspect - if I were betting this one, I'd want to be absolutely sure he'd handled the preliminaries before parting with the stake money.

Main Sequence is unbeaten but this represents a set up in class and I may be star-gazing but Astrology could act as pacemaker for his stablemate. Mickdaam looked anything but an easy ride when winning the Dee Stakes at Chester but should confirm form with Balding's second string Minimise Risk.

Hayley Turner becomes only the second female ever to ride in the race - Alex Greaves finished last on Portugese Lil in 1996. Hayley's mount, Cavaleiro, is probably overpriced at 66/1 but still has plenty to find.

During the week money has come for Thought Worthy (now 16/1) - this one beat Rugged Cross a neck and three quarters of a length in the listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket last month. Thought Worthy is worthy place material but for the more adventurous Rugged Cross (50/1)  is put up as the each-way wager given that Newmarket effort was on his seasonal debut and there could be improvement to come.

Her Majesty's Carlton House, third in last year's Derby, added to royal celebrations with an assured victory at Sandown yesterday evening and Harvest Song tries to repeat the trick for the owner in tonight's 6.40 at Stratford.

I admit I've haven't been paying attention but I feel as though I've sleep-walked into this weekend and have just been given a slap across the face with a wet fish.Those looking to avoid the pomp and circumstance integral in any royal celebration may want to consider this alternative NH itinerary over the next few days...

Friday evening: Stratford - first race 5.40;
Saturday: Watch the Derby on the big screen at Stratford - evening's racing commences at 6.00;
Sunday: Head north to Uttoxeter - first race 2.10;
Monday: Back south to Towcester - first race 2.20;
Tuesday: Head west to Ffos Las - first race 2.30.

Other suggested itineraries welcomed.

Talking horses

Carlton House was sent off 5/4 favourite for the Irish Derby earlier today but The Queen's colt could only finish fourth, Aidan O'Brien training the first three home - Treasure Beach (7/2) beat stablemates Seville (5/1) and Memphis Tennessee (10/1) to give the Irish handler his ninth victory in the race. This evening Paddy Power bet on the Ladbrokes St Leger as follows: 3/1 Nathaniel, 5/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Sea Moon, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Seville.

I was out and about Saturday lunchtime when I received a phone call from a fellow racegoer I see at the races once or twice a year. He'd had a word from one of the owners of Misty Conquest who was due to run in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket. 14 had been declared but at the time of the call one had been withdrawn; Tom Dascombe's filly had been priced up 5/1 second favourite in a couple of the morning papers. Six furlong sprints aren't my cup of tea and a few in the field looked well fancied, including Queen's Revenge and My Propeller, owned by Newcastle footballer Joey Barton; last time out this one had won a six furlong Pontefract madien by an astonishing 17 lengths. After some consideration I decided not to play. When Channel 4 showed the race preliminaries, another two had fallen by the wayside (including My Propeller) and Misty Conquest was priced at 10/1. In the event, she knew her job, broke well, led to half way, eventually coming home third; she had no answer to the strong challenge of Lily's Angel (6/1) who won a shade more cosily than the distances might suggest and looks a smart prospect.

The Jamie Snowden trained 11-year-old Knighton Combe took this afternoon renewal of Uttoxeter's English Summer National at odds of 16/1.

Martin Waller (Tempus) penned an interesting piece in Saturday's Times under the headline 'No such thing as a dead cert for investors in online gaming'. Betfair is shortly set to release its first set of annual figures since the company's flotation; shares issued at £13 last autumn were worth just £7.43 at close of business on Friday evening.

Finally Will Hayler's blog in Saturday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4 presenter Lesley Graham's attempt to generate more interest in her nine bedroom Newmarket mansion which she is looking to sell following the collapse of her marriage to Neil;  a piece appeared in the property section of Wednesday's London Evening Standard. Back in March A.P. McCoy's house was on the market for £2.5 million but unfortunately the property was sold before I could arrange a meeting with my mortgage adviser. By comparison Ms Graham's pad looks a snip at just £1.4 million but I won't bother trying to contact my adviser as I happen to know he's on holdiay for a fortnight...   

After the Derby

French-trained colt Pour Moi took an enthralling renewal of the Derby. 19-year-old Mickael Barzalona, riding in the race for the first time, brought his mount from last to first to beat 25/1 chance Treasure Beach a head with the Queen's Carlton House threequarters of a length adrift in third. There were a few raised eyebrows immediately afterwards as Barzalona stood bolt upright in his irons to salute the victory before he'd actually passed the winning post. Connections of Carlton House were left to rue their luck but to this observer the better horse won on the day. The victory doesn't appear to have impressed official handicapper Phil Smith who has tentatively given Pour Moi a rating of 122, the lowest rating since Sir Percy won in 2006. On several occasions through the afternoon the BBC's coverage of the royal angle verged on the ridiculous while the Court of Appeal ruled that Kieren Fallon could not ride in the race, a decision the jockey likened to 'being knocked out in the first round at Wimbledon.'

Those disappointed Carlton House didn't oblige for the Queen may want to bid for a painting of Her Majesty instead. Sir Alfred James Munnings' A Study for HM The Queen and Aureole will be sold at Christie's on June 15th; the auctioneers place a £60,000-£80,000 price tag on the piece...

Whatever you think of Fred Done, you can't argue with the man's sense of timing. The day after it was announced Betfred's bid for the Tote had been successful, he appeared on the Morning Line and offered to refund all losing singles on the Derby (up to a maximum of £500) if the Queen's Carlton House won. A nice stunt, and in the event it didn't cost him a penny.

I wasn't paying full attention but I sensed Clare Balding nearly had another Liam Treadwell moment when she informed viewers before Friday's Oaks that one particular jockey, an Everton fan, had a tattoo on his back that had been unfortunately misspelt (reading Eeverton instead of Everton). Who was that jockey?

Finally, for those interested, Royal Ascot is a little over a week away; the Weekender / Raceform Update Royal Ascot Ultimate Guide 2011 went on sale Friday 3rd June.

Derby Day 2011

The jockeys have been making the news today... There were two stand-out rides at Epsom earlier, from Ryan Moore aboard Saint Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup and from Johnny Murtagh who pinched the Oaks from the front on Dancing Rain. Frankie Dettori found himself in trouble with the stewards after the Oaks, having been found guilty of dropping his hands and losing third place; he has been hit with a ten day ban. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Kieren Fallon will be able to ride in tomorrow's Derby after the owner of Native Khan took out a High Court injunction to prevent the jockey from riding Aidan O'Brien's Recital; the judge initially ruled he would not prevent Fallon from riding but the decision has been taken to appeal - the result is due at 0900 Saturday morning.

My Derby record makes grim reading with just two wins (Authorized 2007 and Workforce 2010) in forty years of trying. Generally the market has proved a good guide to the race with Sinndar (7/1) being the biggest priced winner in recent years. Using that benchmark, the victor will come from a list that comprises Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville. I can't have the Queen's colt, Carlton House. His victory in the Dante was over three seconds slower than Midday's time in the Middleton Stakes half an hour earlier; he isn't guaranteed to stay; he doesn't represent value while his problems in the build-up have been well-documented. Fallon originally committed to ride Native Khan but has jumped ship; the jock has written a bullish piece in the Weekender about Recital's chance but at this point we don't know if he'll be on board. Seville finished second behind Carlton House in the muddling Dante and on breeding looks the more likely to stay the trip. Pour Moi has been well backed in recent weeks but French traned horses don't have a great record in the race.

Native Khan catches my eye, although obviously Fallon's view is respected. Ed Dunlop's grey isn't guaranteed to stay but he appeared to finish the 2000 Guineas strongly. Timeform rates the principals as follows: Carlton House 136p; Native Khan 134p; Seville 133p; Recital 133; Pour Moi 129p. At 12/1 with Coral I'll chance Native Khan staying the distance and have an each-way wager. For the dreamers amongst you, one that will stay and looks overpriced at 100/1 is Pisco Sour, although the luck of the draw (stall one) hasn't been kind to Hughie Morrison and his colt.

Should Carlton House win for Her Majesty, she will become the first royal to win the Derby since King Edward VII took the race with Minoru in 1909. Should Carlton House disappoint but Sohraab win the preceding Epsom Dash, I'd imagine Her Majesty would not be particularly amused; Kate Middleton's parents own a share of Sohraab...

Up at Newcastle's evening meeting, several runners in the two mile handicap (7.30) have form over the sticks. Orsippus is one that stands out, despite top weight, having finished third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March. Off a mark of 137 he disappointed in the Swinton Hurdle but he starts this Grade 6 handicap off 62. He would be of interest if priced around 5/1 (as he is in tonight's tissue). In the past Westlin' Winds has tended to show better form with cut underfoot; this is his third run for Brian Ellison, having moved north from Charles Egerton's yard a couple of months back. Brian Ellison's 21% strike rate in the past fortnight means an improvement on those first two runs wouldn't be a complete surprise.  

Tricks and treats at Wetherby, Ascot and Newmarket

Eight go to post in tomorrow's Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby where the going is currently described as good. Last year's winner Deep Purple was allowed to go off at 9/2 on that occasion as punters weren't convinced Evan Williams' charge would stay this three miles one furlong but the gelding proved the doubters wrong by leading in the final strides to hold 2/1 favourite Tamarinbleu a head. This year the task looks much stiffer with Deep Purple having to concede four pounds and upwards to the rest of the field; nonetheless connections expect a decent run. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop is likely to be popular but in my mind The Queen's gelding is best at around two miles six; he has won once over three miles (at Sandown) but I'm not convinced he really sees out a three mile trip, so over 25 furlongs here I expect something to beat him. The Tother One is another one who can win on his day but he has his quirks - I recall him throwing away The Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago by hanging right, swerving left and then hanging right after hitting the front two from home. Tom George's Nacarat has won most of his races on right-handed tracks but took the Skypoker.com Handicap Chase at Doncaster last year before going on to win the Racing Post Chase at Kempton; in that same race this year he was just pipped by Twiston-Davies' Razor Royale. The handler informs us his charge will appreciate the better ground but in the past the grey has had a tendency to throw in the odd poor leap and the fences take some jumping at Wetherby. Knockara Beau is one I like but he hasn't won over the trip and last season his fencing didn't always stand up to close scrutiny while previous winner Ollie Magern is surely past his best. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Calgary Bay (14/1 with Ladbrokes) who makes some appeal as an each-way proposition provided of course the eight start - the Taipan gelding had a decent enough warm-up at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. In an open-looking race, at the prices available, I'll support Nacarat, 5/1 with William Hill this evening.

Fair Along, who has been known to sulk in the past, did this blog a favour when winning the John Smith's Hurdle last year but this time around Duc De Regniere and Tidal Bay look tough opponents. The weights favour the former but I'll watch from the sidelines.

Some quick pointers for the Ascot card... Othermix catches the eye in the 2.25. Second in the Jewson at Cheltenham, this grey has his first run for Ian Williams and on official ratings has ten pounds in hand over likely favourite Pause And Clause. Nicky Henderson's Radium is feared - the trainer has taken four of the last six runnings. Course and distance winner Dunraven Storm (3.00) would be worth a second look if not marked up favourite while Tocca Ferro (4.15) was found to be full of mucus after finishing seventh in the Imperial Cup at Sandown in the spring. Trainer Emma Lavelle thinks the five-year-old gelding can win off his current mark of 126. If nothing else you should get a run for your money (with a price thrown in) from front-running course and distance winner King Edmund in the 4.50 while trainer Philip Hobbs said of Persian Snow (5.25) in a recent stable tour: 'This is one I really like...' The feature on the card, The United House Gold Cup (3.40) looks very difficult - top weight Carruthers will only take his chance if the rain arrives in time.

Finally for those who like to take their racing with a right royal touch thrown in, tomorrow's opening maiden fillies' stakes at Newmarket will fit the bill. Carousel, owned by The Prince Of Wales and The Duchess Of Cornwall, will take on nineteen opponents including Starlight Walk owned by Her Majesty The Queen. Commentators tell us Carousel has a much better chance than Starlight Walk but before the family arguments start it's worth remembering The Queen could still cut it later on in the afternoon when Barbers Shop takes his chance in the Charlie Hall Chase.