No Scoop6 for me - it's Bangor-on-Dee...

The Scoop6 hasn't been won since March and the result is there's an estimated £10 million in the pot.

With no more than 15 runners in any of tomorrow's six races, the chances are there will be at least one winning ticket.

I've no doubt the syndicates have already started work on their permutations...

According to my back-of-a-fag packet maths, there are only 4,656,960 potential winning combinations. The wager certainly delivers more excitement than a lottery ticket and, on this occasion, represents better value too.

For those interested in taking part, all you have to do is pick the winners of the following races:

1.45 Newmarket
2.40 Newbury (understatedly named the Betfred Astronomical 10 Million Scoop6 Today Handicap)
2.55 Newmarket
3.25 Thirsk
3.30 Newmarket
4.00 Thirsk

If you're tempted, good luck!

I've set my sights considerably lower by looking briefly at Bangor-on-Dee's jumps card.

Alan King's Grumeti, eighth behind Jezki in the Champion Hurdle two months ago, makes his chase debut in the opener. He'll be long odds-on but didn't hurdle that well at Cheltenham or at Aintree over a half mile further the last day. Back in September I fancied Solaras Exhibition at a price for a listed event at Market Rasen but he disappointed on that occasion. Tim Vaughan's charge will appreciate quicker ground - he may not have the class of Grumeti but I'll watch his jumping with a view to the summer months ahead.

Warren Greatrex is in fine form with 5 wins from 11 runs this month, all ridden by last season's leading conditional Gavin Sheehan.

Later tonight Aidan Coleman teams up with Warrantor for the handler in Aintree's concluding bumper while Sheehan is booked for Wojciech in Bangor's bumper tomorrow. That one faces stiff opposition from the likes of Quiet Candid (Nicky Henderson), Whatdoesthefoxsay (Donald McCain) and Belle De Londres (Alan King).

Whatdoesthefoxsay would appeal as a value play against Henderson's Quiet Candid if the tissue price of 3/1 is available on the day.

McCoy also rides Chalk It Down (for Greatrex) in the 3.40 but this looks an open event. I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with McCain's Ballybriggan provided the price is in double figures.

At the age of ten this one is no spring chicken and he doesn't appear to have had much fun over the larger obstacles recently. That said, he doesn't have too many miles on the clock and comes here freshened up - his record over hurdles reads 4 wins from 11 runs while conditional Nick Slatter takes a handy-looking seven pounds off his back.

Three quick picks for Hennessy Saturday...

Presseed for time this evening so, very quickly...

Newcastle's Fighting Fifth (2.05) looks to have a little more strength in depth than in recent years. Odds-on shot My Tent Or Yours is top-rated but several of Henderson's have needed their first run. I'll oppose with Melodic Rendezvous who took the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago even though handler Jeremy Scott thought his charge would come on for the run. Should eight make it to post, 14/1 about John Quinn's four-year-old filly Cockney Sparrow looks reasonable each-way value.

This year's Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3.00) is wide open. Several fancied runners have been backed through the week, yet I suspect many of them would ideally prefer a little more cut underfoot. An each-way longshot that looks overpriced to me is Same Difference (33/1) who won at the Festival in March and went on to finish second to Quentin Collonges in Sandown's bet365 Gold Cup. On his seasonal debut at Ascot he raced prominently for a while before fading to come home some 35 lengths behind Houblon Des Obeaux (Merry King second, Triolo D'Alene third, Opening Batsman pulled up). The winner has been raised a hefty 10 pounds for that effort (stable jock Aidan Coleman prefers Katenko here) and, obviously, I'm hoping (against hope?) that run has blown away some of the cobwebs...

Opening Batsman (40/1) was amongst the market leaders for that Ascot race but was never a a factor. Still, he took the Racing Plus Chase on good grouind at Kempton in February and a return to that sort of form could see him being competitive. Same Difference is the each-way suggestion.

Finally I'm guessing Donald McCain Jnr will be trying his very hardest to win the race run in memory of his father, the Ginger McCain Memorial Novices' Chase (Bangor 12.30); Swatow Typhoon is his entry in the Class 3 event.  

A bumper weekend...

Looking at the five day declarations earlier in the week, I'd identified a couple running in bumpers that were of some interest while everyone else was concentrating on the Flat.

Oliver Sherwood has his team in good form at the moment and Luci Di Mezzanotte's head second to The Pirate Queen from the Alan King yard last time read well. King's inmate finished fifth in the Aintree listed mares' bumper on her previous run. Luci had an entry in the Bangor bumper at 4.50 on Saturday but it looks as though Fergal O'Brien's previous winner Down Ace has scared her off...

Peter Bowen's Rolling Maul held a couple of weekend options at Uttoxeter and Stratford on Sunday but the handler has decided to take up neither - instead Bowen sends The Road Ahead to the Warwickshire track where Prideofthecastle from David Pipe's stable is likely to provide a stern test.

It's also worth noting that Propsect Wells, well beaten behind Zarkander in the Aintree Hurdle last time, tries fences for the first time on Stratford's card.     

From the world's best racehorse to Bangor-On-Dee

At York on Wednesday The Fugue called the tune in the Musidora while a day later Dante winner Bonfire brought to mind Dante Alighieri's 14th century epic Inferno. Tomorrow Frankel, officially the best racehorse in the world, returns to action in Newbury's JLT Lockinge Stakes - a race for us all to savour (rather than bet on). It seems hardly plausible that four weeks ago his career was rumoured to be in serious doubt.

Having said that, I've been trying to find winners at Bangor... I still haven't quite recovered from not having taken an interest in an old favourite of mine, Hills Of Aran, who obliged at odds of 66/1 in the three mile handicap hurdle at Ludlow last night. So, the fallback plan was to have a good look at Sir Johnson on his hurdling debut at Aintree this evening but he's been taken out. As a colleague of mine regularly points out, 'racing, it's a game of regrets'.

Here's a couple of wagers I'm likely to regret...

Five of the eight runners in the novice chase (3.10) try regulation fences for the first time. Donald McCain's Golden Call is likely to be sent off favourite - his second to Ambion Wood at Perth reads well although the majority of his form in this country has been at three miles. Kauto Relko clearly posssess ability but didn't look the most reliable of jumpers when winning over course and distance last time while at least Kim Bailey's Mark Twain (by Rock Of Gibraltar!) has some reasonable chase form to his name, finishing third behind All For Free in a Class 3 handicap chase at Ludlow in December. Kim Bailey's charge isn't guaranteed to stay the trip; however, while Golden Call appears the percentage call, at the prices (6/1 in the tissue) I'm going to chance Mark Twain in a race where the favourite has only obliged once in the past seven renewals.

The same stable saddles up Mrs Peachey in the mares' bumper at 4.55 and she has the best form in the book but it's the newcomers that catch the eye. Nicky Henderson has entered Fabrika, Rebecca Curtis (50% strike rate with four wins from eight runs in the past fortnight) Gilded Article and Venetia Williams (31.58%  with six wins from 19 runs in the same timeframe) More Ballet Money. The Sporting Life Verdict makes a decent case for the latter-named, pointing out the mare is by Old Vic, cost £24,000 as a yearling and is the trainer's sole runner on the card; priced up at 14/1 in the tissue, I'll take an each-way interest in More Ballet Money.

Finally in the 4.20 I'll consider each-way terms about George Woolf who has had Richard Johnson in the plate for both his hurdle victories to date. The gelding ran no sort of race last time but is forgiven that run with Johnson back doing the steering - he has place claims at around the 14/1 mark. The good ground should suit and trainer Tim Vaughan boasts a strike rate of 26.09% in the past two weeks with six winners from 23 runners.

Tight at the top of the Premiership

It's getting tight at the top of the Premiership - the Blue Square Premiership.

Fleetwood Town have amassed 92 points from 39 games whilst closest rivals Wrexham have 86 points from 37 games. Should the Welsh club win their two games in hand, the goal difference is likely to be pretty tight too - Fleetwood's current goal difference is 52, Wrexham's 49. To add to the spice, Fleetwood are set to entertain Wrexham on Tuesday April 10th and it has just been announced that the  Mansfield v. Wrexham fixture will be televised live by Premier Sports Television (Channel 433) on Friday 20th April.

Having said all that, there are likely to be a few twists and turns along the way - tomorrow's fixtures for both leading clubs look no cakewalk. Third-placed Mansfield visit the league leaders on the back of seven wins from their last eight games, having bagged 26 goals along the way - the one draw in that sequence was against Fleetwood eleven days ago.

Meanwhile Wrexham will feel they have a score to settle with Forest Green Rovers who beat them 1-0 in January, knocking the Welsh side off the top of the league in the process; to add insult to injury, Wrexham's Dean Keates had his injury-time penalty saved by former Wrexham keeper Sam Russell. Forest Green Rovers beat fourth-placed Luton Town 3-0 on Tuesday evening.

Those prepared to take a view can bet 9/2 Mansfield with bet365 and 31/10 the draw with Bet Victor. Bet Victor are also best-priced about a drawn Wrexham match (17/5) while Stan James offers 13/2 Forest Green Rovers.

Just down the road from Wrexham, Donald McCain will be hoping to take some of the spoils on offer at Bangor-On-Dee, his local track. Railway Dillon will popular in the 3.50 but this looks a trappy affair - front-runner Calisto Moon returns from a break and couldn't be completely written off if fit enough while Wake Board won as he liked over this course and distance last May.

The bumper is interesting. Imperial Leader's second to The Romford Pele reads well after that one came home seventh in the Festival bumper last week, beaten just over ten lengths. Donald McCain's Ifyousayso has to carry a penalty but it would be no surprise to see Nicky Henderson's mare Miss Ballantyne improve on her third to stablemate Brave Alliance at Warwick in November. I'll monitor the market and bet Imperial Leader if the signs are positive.

Over the years I haven't fared particularly well at tomorrow's Newbury meeting - the race that intrigues is the 3.40. Ikorodu Road is of obvious interest after his victory in the Grimthorpe. He may have been a little fortunate that day as a tired-looking Pentiffic fell at the final fence when holding a three length lead but he battled all the way to the line to pip Junior a short-head. I'm going to take an each-way chance on Henry Daly's Pearlysteps (10/1 bet365, Bet Victor) who didn't jump well at Ascot the last day but has been to Yogi Breisner's since and sports cheekpieces for the first time. His previous second to According To Pete in the Peter Marsh reads well and Jake Greenall takes off a handy-looking five pounds.

The Hennessy and the Fighting Fifth

After Kauto's heroics in last week's Betfair Chase, this week's Hennessy just hasn't captured the imagination. Old-timers such as myself often witter on about the Hennessy going to a young up-and-coming sort but as Tom Segal points out in the Weekender, last season's top novices looked distinctly average in the Betfair. I bet Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA last March but he's not the most proficient of jumpers; Wymott's stable jock Jason Maguire prefers Peddlers Cross at Bangor and a quick trip to Newcastle to partner Overturn; Great Endeavour looked good in the Paddy Power but hasn't won over further than two miles six while The Giant Bolster has failed to complete on four of his six chase starts. So, of the younger brigade, Wayward Prince, third in the RSA and fourth behind the well-regarded Quito De La Roque at Aintree three weeks later (Sarando beaten just a neck into second) makes some appeal; trainer Ian Williams sounds hopeful enough and in the past fortnight has sent out seven winners from 36 runners. Of the more established entrants, top weight Neptune Collonges has Harry Dereham take seven pounds off but didn't really hit the heights last season following a long break after injury - since 1957 only three horses older than nine have won: Mandarin (1961), Rondetto (1967) and Diamond Edge (1981). Blazing Bailey is an outside chance while there's a hint Beshabar has the National as his target. Running one pound out of the handicap, Carruthers finished sixth in this last year off a mark of 155 - he returns this time off 146 and ran well on his seasonal debut behind Galaxy Rock at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Connections try a tongue-tie for the first-time - 20/1 with totesport looks reasonable each-way value. This evening two layers offer a quarter the odds five places on this race - bet365 and Paddy Power.

The sole tip to oblige last week was Overturn and many will tell me that was only because Oscar Whisky fell when challenging at the last. That said, I'm not inclined to desert him against former champion hurdler Binocular in the Fighting Fifth. Nicky Henderson's charge has been sent off an odds-on chance in this race on each of the past two runnings and has been beaten on both occasions. The word from the Henderson yard is their charge is fit and ready this year. Celestial Halo is worthy of every respect but at this evening's prices the 7/2 Ladbrokes offer about Overturn looks particularly tempting.

Big Buck's returns in Newbury's Long Distance Hurdle (2.35); pilot Ruby Walsh was stood down after a fall from Sollim earlier today but he is expected to be fit to ride tomorrow.

All eyes will be on Peddlers Cross who continues his education over the larger obstacles in the opener at Bangor (12.10). At the same track Scholastica goes in the concluding mares' bumper (3.35) and is worth noting for future reference whatever happens here.

Recent racing titbits

I don't know why but since the royal wedding matters royal continue to crop up. A couple of weeks ago the Daily Mail reported that the Queen had looked after Frankie Dettori's lost dachsund Scruby. Then at York last Thursday Midday won the Middleton Stakes while half an hour later the Queen's Carlton House won the Dante in some style. Her Majesty's colt, apparently gifted to her by Sheikh Mohammed, is now a short-priced favourite for the Epsom Derby on Saturday June 4th. All that has encouraged further royal foraging - Marcus Armytage in the Daily Telegraph pointed out that:

The Queen has never won the Derby - in 1953, the year of her Coronation, Aureole finished second to Pinza;

The last monarch to win the Derby was King Edward VII in 1909 with Minoru.

Professor Gerda Reith of Glasgow University has carried out research of a different kind and discovered that the use of Fixed Odds Betting Terminal (FOBTs) in betting shops can lead to problems. 'Betting machines are particularly risky because of the enormous speed at which they take gamblers' money.'

Today's students are likely to be familiar with the idea of running up big debts, so perhaps it's unsurprising to see the BHA trying to entice them into the world of racehorse ownership. Love The Races has leased Tim Vaughan's Tae Kwon Do to a select band of students until the end of June as part of a prize in a recently-held comeptition. Last time out the gelding ran better than his 14/1 market price would have suggested beforehand, finishing third in a handicap hurdle at Wincanton. I'd imagine connections will be keen to land a small race before the lease runs out. In a somewhat similar vein Bangor blog selection Wake Board won with his head in his chest on Saturday despite pulling hard through most of the race and a hiccup two form home; have current connections found the key to this enigmatic individual?

Finally, I leave you with the thought that you tend to come across a different type of woman in the jumping game. At the Punchestown Festival Ladies' Day recently Daybreak presenter Grainne Seoige turned up wearing steel toe-capped heels, no doubt of particular use when dealing with the unwanted attentions of over-amourous male punters keen to try their luck...

Notes for Bangor

This evening the going at the north Wales track is described as good but rain is forecast.

In the opener Alan King's 114-rated Dineur was beaten two lengths by 80/1 chance Alta Rock at Market Rasen the last time over a distance of two miles three furlongs.The shorter trip here should help as should the gelding's preference to race up with the pace; Alta Rock has come out and won again since. Donald McCain's Dunowen Point has started favourite on three occasions and disappointed each time - connections have given their charge a break; trainer comments 'he has a great attitude...' [Weekender 13-17.10.10]. Jennie Candlish's course and distance winner Tarn Hows makes more appeal; the stable has had two winners from five runners in the past week - one on the Flat at Warwick and the other over fences at Uttoxeter. Any rain would help Tarn Hows' cause but Dineur looks the safer option.

In the Brookes Bell Novices' Handicap Hurdle at three o'clock J P McManus' Fishoutofwater is likely to go off favourite. I'll oppose with Spirit Of Barbados. Andrew King, West Country correspondent for the Weekender, reports plenty of money for this one the last time at Chepstow - the Sporting Life records eight wagers of £1100-£1000.  The gelding got no further than the first, running out with Rhys Flint before throwing the jock; Richard Johnson takes over tomorrow.

Only five in the novices' chase at 3.35 but it looks trappy enough. Princeful gets the nod; further rain would help.

In the handicap chase Marked Man can be opposed on account of his age while What Of It has been running in hunter chases. Mare Play A Cord is the likely favourite but she faces no easy task giving weight to her opponents. Once upon a time Wake Board was well-regarded but just seven runs for four different trainers since 2008 is disconcerting; it looks as though he was bought out of a seller on his penultimate run. Trevor Hemmings' grey Our Bob has had a wind operation to accompany his training problems. It's a high risk approach but I'll chance Wake Board as a play against the jolly.

In the mares' hurdle Irene Kennet could be considered worthy of each-way interest if priced around 10/1.

The concluding hunters' chase is likely to see last year's winner Ice Tea go off odds-on. Fourty Acers won for David Pipe three weeks ago and on ratings has every chance for current connections but in the past the chestnut gelding has hindered his chance on left-handed tracks by jumping right. He comes here in good order, having won a two runner point very easily in April, and could offer value against Ice Tea.

A quick round-up

Three taking performances from the three days of Cheltenham's Open meeting...

Friday: Cue Card looks the real deal, rated 156 by Timeform. Ladbrokes quote 3/1 about Colin Tizzard's charge for the Supreme and 16/1 for the Champion.

Saturday: Sam Winner proved aptly-named, taking the juvenile hurdle in emphatic fashion, with some well-fancied types well-beaten behind. Now 7/1 favourite for the Triumph.

Sunday: Ghizao, the outsider in a field of five, jumped impeccably to take the novice chase; now 12/1 favourite for the Arkle.

A couple of incidents from last Wednesday had the commentators' tongues wagging. Conditional jockey Christopher Timmons seemed to have a handicap hurdle at Bangor in the bag on Jeanery (4/1) but he eased his mount down and mistook where the winning post was positioned with the result he was done on the line by 5/1 shot Monsieur. Over at Huntingdon Medermit was sent off 1/5 favourite for a novice chase but he refused at the sixth; jockey Wayne Hutchinson said the horse had been spooked by a fence attendant.

These days it's only on very rare occasions that I take my ageing burnt fingers into a betting shop but last Friday morning I'd had a bit of stinker with work so at dinner time I popped into the local Ladbrokes just as a beginners' chase from Newcastle was on screen. It was run-of-the-mill fare but the odds-on favourite crashed out at the fifth which left the race at the mercy of second favourite Lord Larsson; that one drew clear from the home turn to win as he liked. Richie McGrath had been hard at work on Mr Syntax trying to close down the leader but the gelding made a very bad mistake four out and the jock did well to keep the partnership intact. That's how I saw it but this elderly punter, who had just invaded my personal space, started to slate the rider, bemoaning the fact that he wasn't even trying on the second and denouncing the performance as 'an absolute disgrace'. On occasions such as this I find distraction a useful tool - 'What price was that winner?' I enquired. 'Dunno' came the reply. At which point I made a quick exit.

Now, there's race-riding and there's writing - I know nothing about the former and wouldn't claim to know very much about the latter. David Pipe's stable jockey Tom Scudamore knows an awful lot about race-riding but his column, which started up again in last Thursday's Times, isn't always the easiest of reads. Still, Tom concluded this week's effort with a telling piece of advice he once received: 'Some of the horses will disappoint, some break even and some exceed all expectations. As long as you meet somewhere in the middle you're doing OK.'

Chepstow's first meeting

Over the years tomorrow's Chepstow card has come to be seen by many traditionalists as the first meeeting 'proper' of the new National Hunt season. A few years ago Philip Hobbs was a trainer to note here but in more recent times Paul Nicholls has used the meeting to set down a marker. Of course, the world and his wife is now fully aware of the above - a while back I set about trying to exploit this fact by opposing fancied runners from the Nicholls stable, the theory being that the yard may not be quite in full swing and many of the horses not 'cherry ripe'.

This approach hasn't really been that successful - here's a quick summary of how Nicholls-trained horses ridden by Ruby Walsh have fared at this meet over the past four years:

2009
Tito Bustillo won 11/8f
The Gossmoor Yank third 11/4f
Gullible Gordon won 4/6f
Tot Of The Knar third 100/30
Classic Swain second 7/2jf
Murrell second 8/11f

2008
Five Dream fourth 7/2 2f
Herecomesthetruth won 10/11f
Bold Policy fifth 4/1 2f
R Rien De Sivola won 8/1
Tchico Polos won 5/2 2f
Tataniano won evens fav

2007
Natal UR 100/30f
Gwanako won 6/1 2f
Petit Lord won 6/5f
Qrackers second 5/1 (beaten by 4/11f Franchoek)
Pertinent F 4/1 2f
Hercomesthetruth fifth 7/4f

2006
Bold Fire tenth 9/2
East Lawyer PU 8/1
Hot N Holy won 9/4f
Chaninbar second 5/1 2f (beaten by 4/11f Katchit)
Armariver second 3/1 2f (beaten by 4/11f Massini's Maguire)
Earth Planet won 11/4 2f

Those looking for value should note that the Nicholls runner has won the past four runnings of the 3.25.

I intend to oppose Escort'men in tomorrow's 4.00 race. This horse won the Dovecote at Kempton in impressive style last February but his subsequent effort at Aintree was disappointing; I'm not certain whether he's better going right-handed or whether he can handle an undulating track - certainly his hold-up style of racing won't be suited to Chepstow. Having said all that, I should point out Nick Mordin rates Escort'men 'a Champion hurdle prospect'. I'll take a chance with Tom George's course and distance winner Olofi who won the juvenile hurdle at this meet last year.

Gullible Gordon will be popular in the 5.10 but this is a competitive handicap. Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form (9 wins from 32 runs in past fortnight) so last year's winner Beat The Boys isn't lightly dismissed. Le Beau Bai is interesting, especially with a seven pound claimer up. Connections are likely to be aiming for another stab at the Welsh National but I'm tempted to take fitness on trust and have a wager on Richard Lee's Le Beau Bai.

In the opener I'll monitor the market to decide whether Alan King's Groove Master is a play against the Nicholls favourite Domtaline (third in the Prix Wild at Auteuil, a race that historically throws up plenty of future winners according to the Weekender) while in the concluding bumper Kartanian is likely to have his work cut out giving seven pounds to Merehead.

Over at Bangor the 5.15 looks a hot novice for the time of year. Henry Daly's Wessex King was withdrawn at Uttoxeter on Sunday presumably on account of the heavy ground. The going may be more to his liking here but the opposition is far stiffer; the race should provide some valuable pointers for the weeks ahead.

Flat out?

I don't know, the Flat so far this season, it has been kind of, well, flat. Dante winner Cape Blanco looked impressive beating Workforce three and a half lengths at York on Thursday but the colt banged his heel during the race; he is reported more comfortable today. On Tuesday evening there was a bit of action in the Southwell weighing room following the last when two female jockeys, Sophie Doyle and Kirsty Milczarek, started trying to knock nine bells out of one another. Milczarek, riding Sparky Vixen, had been beaten a neck into fifth by Doyle's mount Vogarth and later emerged sporting a black eye. Ouch!

At Newbury tomorrow there are eight separate events on which you can lose your money, the highlight being the Lockinge at 3.05. Paco Boy will be an odds-on chance and rightly so following his seasonal debut at Sandown three weeks ago; on official ratings he has two pounds in hand over Zacinto. The Cheka, well-touted beforehand, finished third in the Sandown race; on ratings he has something to find with a few of these but Fallon has talked up his mount's chance in the Weekender: "My fellow still has quite a bit of improvement in him and I feel he will be better suited to Newbury...he definitely has a big chance." Priced at 14/1 with several layers this evening The Cheka is worth an each-way interest.

I see Gary Moore's Bergo is declared for the Aston Park Stakes; this one was withdrawn from the listed John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes at Ascot last Saturday. Owned by Harry Findlay's mother, the gelding won three novice chases during the winter months before finishing a respectable fourth to Tataniano at Aintree last month. Trainer Gary Moore saddled a treble at Fontwell on Wednesday; with son Ryan in the plate here I'll consider a small each-way interest at around the 16/1 mark - the ground shoudn't be a problem.

A quick note on the mares' bumpers at Bangor. The first leg (4.40) looks open with Nicky Henderson's Heather Royal, Donald McCain's Uttoxeter winner Dorabelle and Dark Sensation of interest - the last-named went down fighting, beaten half a length by Paul Nicholls' King Of The Night at Newton Abbot three weeks ago, the pair some twelve lengths clear of their field. In the second leg China Sky from the powerful Henderson team looks the likely favourite but Peter Bowen's With Grace, fourth behind Inga Bird over course and distance on her last appearance, is certainly worth a second look. The winner that day was beaten six lengths by Old McDonald last December - Old McDonald went on to finish an excellent fourth behind Hidden Universe in the Punchestown bumper last month.

Bangor and Newbury

It barely seems a week since Paddy Brennan rode Imperial Commander to victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Tomorrow the first big race of the Flat season, the William Hill Lincoln, takes place at Doncaster racecourse while the Dubai World Cup takes place at Meydan racecourse - given the choice, where would you rather be? Presumably Paddy Brennan (7 winnners from 40 rides in the past fortnight) had the choice where to ride tomorrow and he's chosen to go to Bangor-On-Dee rather than Newbury, even though he rode a winner at the Berkshire track earlier today (Carlitos in the 2.20); does that suggest the yard fancy Made In Japan in the competitive-looking Tommy Shone Handicap Hurdle at 4.20? Made In Japan, once with Philip Hobbs, has never been easy to catch right but he has some decent form to his name - the second to Time For Rupert at Cheltenham last December reads well given the winner that day found only Big Buck's too good in the World Hurdle at the Festival last week. The tissue has the horse priced up at 10/1 - I'll have another look in the morning before deciding whether to take an each-way interest.

There are two listed mares finals at Newbury; several owners will be hoping to collect so their charge can then be sent to the paddocks in possession of the coveted black type. The hurdle race (2.15) is difficult with eighteen going to post but the chase looks fractionally easier with just nine set to face the starter. Likely favourite Carole's Legacy has won three over the larger obstacles this term - two of those victories have included the scalps of three of tomorrow's opponents - Cool Friend, Wychwoods Legend and Daraz Rose. Nicky Henderson's charge then went on to run a stormer in the mares' hurdle at the Festival ten days ago, finishing second behind Willie Mullins' Quevega; there must be a fair chance she will not have fully recovered from her exertions and therefore is passed over. Alan King's Over Sixty is respected but the yard has been in patchy form all season - King admitted on Monday he had lost owners and couldn't wait to start the new season with a clean slate. Calusa Crystal could be anything - she won easily at Warwick the last time and, according to her trainer, will be suited by a bit of cut; this will be the furthest she has tried. Cool Friend has a lot of seconds to her name but was beaten only a nose by Carole's Legacy at Exeter in December (weighted to turn that form around) and then ruined her chance against the same horse with a poor jump at the final fence at Ffos Las in January; since then she has run second to the well-regarded Awesome George. The bottom four race from out of the handicap - it's a close call but as Philip Hobbs' operation is in decent form, I'll take a chance with Calusa Crystal.

Back at Bangor the trade union Unison sponsors the opening and closing events - I considered ringing up the local branch for the inside word. On official ratings Santera looks the one in the claimer while in the concluding bumper the J P McManus owned Off Gallivanting has certainly been off a while - 332 days to be precise. Market rival Carribs Leap has to concede ten pounds (inclusive of the jockey's claim) so Off Gallivanting, who has missed a few potential engagements of late, gets the vote.

Some weekend jumping notes

The Sporting Life reports plenty of drama at Ffos Las today - sadly 11/2 chance Manorson broke down after winning the Sir David Mansel Lewis Memorial Beginners' Chase.

David Pipe's charge Seven Is My Number, owned by David Johnson, took the opener at Bangor yesterday - the 9/2 chance beat Khachaturian (7/4) a short head in a relatively fast time. That's his third win on the bounce this autumn, although, according to the Racing Post's comments in running, the horse did everything he could to throw away the chance: '..ridden when wandered right and joined last, had plenty left but made it very hard for rider, cajoled home in front..." The rider who worked the oracle was Timmy Murphy. The horse looks far from straightforward but, despite those comments, clearly possesses ability as he was giving the runner-up ten pounds.

Evan Williams is in the spotlight in the Weekender's 'Straight from the Stable' feature this week and I was intrigued to see Silverburn is now an inmate of the yard. Although this horse, formerly with Paul Nicholls, has a Tolworth Hurdle to his name, I always felt he never quite lived up to expectations, even though Nicholls was quick to talk up his charge's chance when any opportunity arose. After finishing fourth in the Ballymore at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival, Silverburn was, for me, one to take on - his third in the 2007 Feltham behind Joe Lively was a typically frustrating effort. Mr Williams has a reputation for working wonders with animals that have maybe fallen out of love with the game - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn progresses.

Noted from that same Weekender article - State Of Play won't be ready for the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and is being aimed at the Grand National; Brenin Cwmtudu has schooled well over fences and 'could make signifcant progress this season' (has five-day entries in two chases at Ludlow on Thursday); Foxhunter winner Cappa Bleu is waiting for the rain to arrive and Fight Club is one to look out for when starting his novice hurdle campaign.

Howard Johnson caught the eye with three winners from just four runners at Carlisle on Friday but the form didn't carry over to Hexham the next day where both Wave Power (evens) and Montoya's Son (6/4) both disappointed. It's early days yet...

A couple of weeks ago Tom Segal, writing in the Weekender, indicated he preferred Flat racing to Jumps as a betting medium. Amongst the reasons he advanced - in chases in particular it was critical for a horse to get into a jumping rhythm and you could never tell beforehand if that was going to happen. I just couldn't resist putting forward a couple of counterpoints, reasons why I'm not so keen on the Flat game as a bettng medium - effect of the draw, traffic problems, less form to go on... ;)

Finally, for those who like their information straight from the horse's mouth, NH trainer Chris Bealby has an interesting blog at chrisbealby.wordpress.com

The proper start to the jumps season

Many consider tomorrow's meeting at Chepstow the real start to the jumps season; in days gone by the feature race was the Mercedes Benz Chase, with the BBC televising at least three races from the card. How times have changed! The Paul Nicholls stable moves into gear now, and Ruby Walsh will start his regular winter flights across the Irish Sea. In the past, searching for value, I've experimented with an approach of opposing Nicholls' runners at this meeting, the theory being that after their summer break the horses may not be as far forward as many will assume. The results have been decidedly mixed - last year was best forgotten with Nicholls-trained beasts winning four (Tchico Polos 5/2, Herecomesthetruth 10/11f, R De Rien Sivola 8/1 and Taniano even money favourite). As today's Daily Telegraph reports Nicholls feels his charges are as far forward as they were this time last year, I'd advise caution in following the strategy this year.

One I would be prepared to take on is Classic Swain in the four-year-old hurdle at 4.10. Classic Swain has never struck me as straightforward and in the past has shown signs of temperament together with a tendency to miss the odd hurdle out here and there. Any Given Day is a horse I like while Trenchant, with Choc Thornton up, looks the pick of the Alan King runners. Josh Gifford's Helium, a staying-on eighth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham, is held in high regard but, as with many on their first run of the season, fitness has to be taken on trust; having said that, the tissue prices the horse at 20/1 which looks big. In an open event, Any Given Day is put forward as the tentative selection - his run at Market Rasen in mid-August may give him an edge over some of his rivals here.

Tot Of The Knar has had her fair share of trainers and moved to the Nicholls yard in August. A game mare on her day, she gets into the 3.35 with a light weight but she has been novice chasing in smallish fields - taking on seasoned handicappers here she makes little appeal at cramped odds.

The favourite has won eight of the last ten runnings of the juvenile hurdle which is due off at 4.45. At the time of writing Fongoli is the most experienced animal and the market leader. The King stable won this in 2006 with Katchit and then finished second twice in succession with Pouvoir (2007) and Tuanku (2008). Tombov needs to improve on what we've seen so far to get competitive but the yard wouldn't enter him here on a mere whim. Fongoli is the selection.

Only six go to post for the novice chase at 3.00 which tends to act as a stepping stone for a young chaser destined for better things. As two thirds of the field are seven years old and more, I have concentrated on Nicholls' Gullible Gordon and Jonjo O'Neill's Theatrical Moment - Gullible Gordon gets the vote.

Noted - McCoy chooses to ride at Bangor. Khachaturian is of interest in the opener after his recent second to King Troy over a trip perhaps a little beyond his best. The drop back here should suit, although King Troy, previously fourth in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen, didn't jump well that day. King's Forest is respected. The McManus horses City Theatre and Shadow Dancer will be short odds to take the two novice hurdle events but I'll be tempted to have an each-way dabble on Norma Hill if she's priced around the 12/1 mark in the 3.30. This course and distance winning mare returned to action after a two year layoff with a reasonable effort in August. I've won money on her before - on her day she was a very speedy individual; if she retains her ability, she can be competitive here.

Odds 'n' ends...

The final day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting was anything but glorious - the rain came, along with the sea mist. Alan Lee wrote a piece in Saturday's Times commenting on the recession and falling attendances, pointing out that the free view from Trundle Hill had proved popular this year. Anyone who took the option to watch Saturday's racing will have seen next to nothing; from the racecourse stands visibility stretched to two hundred yards at most.

Two performances caught my eye during the week. On Friday at Bangor Beherayn won his first chase. In the past this one has either gone off like a scalded cat or pulled hard when held up, often failing to give the obstacles the respect they deserve. Have connections finally tamed him? The form book reports that he pulled hard in rear, made jumping errors but eventually won with something in hand. On Thursday The Betchworth Kid, a 33/1 shot, ran a huge race to take third place in the Goodwood Cup. He's set to go jumping this winter with Alan King.

Recently a colleague spent a few days walking in Northumberland, staying at The Blink Bonny, Christon Bank. The hostelry is named after Blink Bonny, a remarkable filly who won the Epsom Derby and two days later the Oaks in 1857. The horse's skeleton is preserved in the museum at York racecourse but two of her hooves are kept in a glass case above the fireplace at the pub.

That story brought to mind a time Mrs Tips and I lodged in a hotel in Gatehouse of Fleet, South West Scotland. Our stay coincided with the annual 'riding the marches', a tradition which, according to Wikipedia, 'celebrates the ancient custom of riding the boundaries of the parish/marches'. Townsfolk rode through the streets on all manner of different sized horses; the people of Langholm have recently celebrated the 250th anniversary of their Common Riding. Of course, you couldn't get a bet on for love nor money...

Finally, four footballers who did manage to get a bet on will perhaps wish they hadn't after they were banned for a breach of betting rules. Jay Harris (Chester City), Robert Williams (Accrington Stanley), David Mannix (Chester City) and Andrew Mangan (Forest Green Rovers) have all been fined and hit with playing bans of up to one year.

By the way, the new season kicks off on Saturday.

Winter Derby

A week on from a vintage Gold Cup and the talk is of Kauto Star running at Punchestown and Denman at Aintree - I'm just finding it hard to get motivated by tomorrow's jumping cards. Newbury looks typically trappy - over the years I have been singularly unsuccessful in predicting the outcome of the mares' finals; having said that, I can't fancy Ping Pong Sivola in the 2.50 just nine days after she finished second in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham.

Funnily enough the ones that catch my eye run in bumpers. The Trevor Hemmings owned pair Peveril and Wymott start at Haydock and Bangor respectively. In this week's Weekender Donald McCain states they intended to run Wymott in the Haydock event 'unless the owner has something better in it'. Peveril, trained by Nicky Henderson, has been declared for Haydock, will have the assistance of McCoy in the saddle and is likely to start the short-priced favourite. Wymott goes to Bangor instead, doesn't want soft, is unlikely to get it and will perhaps start at a marginally better price. In the Stratford bumper David Pipe's filly Sure Josie Sure will be popular receiving weight from all her rivals but I'm tempted to oppose with Tim Vaughan's Daaloob; the Pipe yard has a poor win strike rate over the last fortnight (4.84%) in marked contrast to Tim Vaughan (25%).

All of which leads me on to the weekend's big race, the Winter Derby (Lingfield 3.05), which is run on the first day of spring. Now, if I know relatively little about about jump racing, I know absolutely nothing about the all-weather. Still, for reasons unknown, this race has caught my imagination. Likely favourite Premier Loco has been well-tipped (with accompanying puns about his 'steaming in' etc.) yet, to date, he hasn't won over the distance. Earlier in the week I half fancied Scintillo at a price and swapped notes with Sandracer on his blog about that one's chances. At the time the beast was around 16/1 but in the meantime he went and won a five runner event at Kempton and now trades at 8s in places. In discussions Sandracer mentioned Mick Channon's Halicarnassus and, to my mind, that one now looks a value play at around 16/1. The horse is drawn on the wide outside of the twelve runners which may be considered a disadvantage but the trainer was pretty upbeat about his charge in a mid-week interview, saying the horse was a Group 3 animal that had been running in better class races of late. At the prices on offer, I'm going to chance the top-rated Halicarnassus each-way at 16/1 (or maybe even bigger...)

Festive fare

The only thing that makes Christmas half-bearable is the racing on Boxing Day. Last night somebody who clearly has little regard for their own money asked me for an each-way outsider in the King George; I came up with 20/1 chance Snoopy Loopy. I figured if connections have stumped up £10k to supplement the horse, they must think it has some sort of chance. Previous King George winner and current favourite Kauto Star will generate plenty of press interest. However his stablemate and Gold Cup winner Denman has a surprise entry in the 2.55 hurdle race at Wincanton on the same day; teletext reports a decision regarding his participation will be taken on Tuesday. In the meantime, if you're in desperate need of rescue from the whole horror of Christmas, I recommend ploughing through the Boxing Day declarations to see if you can spot a cunning plot; should you happen to stumble upon one, please let me know.

Many will think that within the space of half an hour at Ascot on Saturday they saw the next Champion and World Hurdle winners in Binocular and Punchestowns. After winning on Binocular McCoy had a dig at the BBC's proposed coverage cuts with a quip that the only chance viewers would have to see the horse again would be on Top Gear.

A couple of midweek results caught my eye. Bannister Lane bounced back to form to win the three and three quarter mile handicap chase at Bangor on Wednesday while Ron Hodges' Dream Falcon was backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 before taking the two and a half mile novices' handicap chase at Ludlow on Thursday. At Ascot on Friday Medermit and Dee Ee Williams fought out a thrilling finish but perhaps the horse to note was Wendel who had every chance coming to the last; that form represents a big improvement on his previous two wins at Plumpton. Quoting Charlie Mann in the Weekender - "I have some very nice novice hurdlers this season and I think he could be the best of them." Earlier in the season Black Jacari was touted as a possible Triumph Hurdle hope but the horse has patently failed to deliver; he runs with first-time blinkers applied in a Class 4 juvenile novice hurdle at Hereford tomorrow.

It might be Christmas but the press still likes nothing better than a bad news story - they've been hinitng for a few weeks now that ten household High Street names are in danger of going to the wall in 2009. I wonder if William Hill is one of those ten names. And, finally, a phrase to strike fear into the heart of any sports administrator is 'suspicious betting patterns'. Last week snooker came under the spotlight...

Matters arising...

One approach I've tried in the past when searching for value is to oppose Paul Nicholls' runners early in the season, before the stable gets into full swing. Mr. Nicholls' four-timer at Chepstow on Saturday, complemented by Breedsbreeze's victory at Bangor, would appear to indicate I'll need to come up with something different this year.

Talk of Paul Nicholls and before long the subject of Denman crops up. The horse is a best-priced 13/8 shot to win the Gold Cup for a second time next March. The Aon Chase at Newbury in February is pencilled in as his target; no horse has returned to action so late and gone on to win chasing's Blue Riband in the last twenty years. Alan Lee's piece in Saturday's Times contained this interesting quote from the trainer about his charge: "It worried the hell out of me until we knew what it was ... He was losing condition and getting so tired he wouldn't even put his head over the door. The treatment knocked him back further but there's an 85 per cent chance he'll have no further problems..." Denman is presently confined to his box.

I didn't get time to look at the Bangor card before my post on Friday evening. More's the pity as I would probably have referred to an earlier blog note on Bill's Echo. "Bill's Echo ... will be worth a second look next time out." The blessed beast won Bangor's 2.25 at odds of 14/1.

You knew it had to happen - connections have decided to retire unbeaten filly Zarkava to stud. Her victory in the Arc will live long in the memory.

With the demise of Superform I have just purchased The Form Book Jumps Annual for the first time. This definitive reference work retails at £30 but is available from Amazon for just £19.50 with free delivery thrown in - the best book bargain I've bagged in ages!

Some Newbury selections...

The only horse I've seen this week is a pommel horse (and that looked rather dull in its coat). Very quickly, some suggestions for Saturday's Newbury meeting...

2.10 Whispering Angel - course / distance winner that should handle soft ground.

2.40 Sixties Icon in a competitive race; Donegal looks a big threat with the weight allowance.

3.15 I fancied Major Cadeaux for this, but he doesn't run, so I won't get involved.

Over the jumps at Bangor, the 4.15 and 4.50 look decent races for the time of year, provided they don't cut up. If declared, The King Of Angels will be worth a second glance in the 4.50; I'd expect to see McCoy in the plate.

Turf 'n' Dirt

Many in racing tend to complain that 'mares only' races can be rather uncompetitive; that comment certainly doesn't apply to the Mares Only Novices' Chase Final at Newbury tomorrow, with seventeen going to post. The market has proved a decent enough pointer in the past with five favourites obliging in the last nine years. Guillaume Macaire's Souri Des Champs looks set to carry the mantle of market leader and her chance is respected. Top weight Back On Line ran well to finish third in the four miler at the Festival two weeks ago but this may come a little too quickly; by way of contrast the Alners' entry, Miss Mitch, arrives fresh having been given a mid-season break. Nicky Richards thinks highly of Scarvagh Diamond but, using the market as a guide, I'll side with Souri Des Champs; James Reveley's five pounds claim looks particularly useful here.

In the opening claimer at Bangor Len Lungo's Delightfully has something in hand over all her rivals on the ratings but needs to settle a little better than she has in the past. On paper the Novices' Hurdle at 3.00 looks between course and distance winner Rightway Star and Isn't That Lucky. Isn't That Lucky finished mid-division in last year's Champion Bumper at the Festival while Rightway Star finshed behind Theatrical Moment in the Aintree Bumper. Since then, Isn't That Lucky has beaten Nicky Henderson's Schiehallion at Sandown and receives seven pounds here so Isn't That Lucky is marginally preferred. In the concluding hunter chase Lady Myfanwy has been in good form recently - I'll check the market before deciding whether to invest.

I like Soapy Danger more than Munsef in the Doncaster Shield, although both horses are closely matched. Alfie Flits has not been declared which means there will be little value in the betting market.

From the turf to the dirt - Channel 4 are set to broadcast the Dubai World Cup live at 5.30pm from Nad Al Sheba. Most observers won't contemplate defeat for odds-on shot Curlin. Nick Mordin, using his speed ratings, puts a case for Godolphin's Jalil in the Weekender and bullish noises having been eminating from that camp over the past couple of days. Curlin hasn't been done any favours with a wide draw in berth twelve while Jalil will come from stall eight; 7/1 are the odds of reward on offer for those prepared to oppose the favourite.