Many will concentrate on Kempton tomorrow but rather than put up half a dozen short-priced losers on that card, I've chosen to exercise a modicum of self-discipline and restricted myself to putting up one bigger-priced loser at Newcastle.
Gosforth Park's feature is the four mile one furlong Eider Chase at 2.55; most layers will pay a quarter the odds four places provided the sixteen declared overnight make it to the start.
I'm interested in Wyck Hill, quoted at 16/1 with Bet Victor earlier this afternoon but now only a 12/1 chance. This one has been bang out of form this term but as a result he's dropped to a mark of 133. Last year he won a listed handicap chase at Ascot off 129 and trainer David Bridgwater is on record saying: 'I thought he was capable of winning off a good bit higher mark than this...'
The last five winners of this have all carried 11-0 or more; tomorrow connections try their charge in a tongue-tie for the first time.
I know I'm taking a chance on the return to form but at the price Wyck Hill appeals as an each-way play.
Friday, February 21, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Haydock's Grand National Trial
Four weeks today we'll know the winner of the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup but the Grand National is the focus at Haydock tomorrow where the Betfred Grand National Trial (2.55) is the highlight on the card.
Welsh National form is represented by Hawkes Point (second), Merry King (fourth) with Red Rocco and Well Refreshed both pulled up while Emperor's Choice won the West Wales National at Ffos Las a fortnigtht ago. You know, I can still see Well Refreshed winning this event last year despite jumping straight through the final flight as though it wasn't there...
16/1 chance Wychwoods Brook upset several more fancied runners when taking the Peter Marsh here four weeks ago (Merry King third); that was a decent show from Evan Williams' novice who was formerly with Graeme McPherson. There may be more to come but Our Father is one that hasn't really lived up to lofty expectations.
My search for a runner at an each-way price led me to consider, amongst others, Loch Ba and Soll. The former ran creditably in Warwick's Classic Chase five weeks ago; he has a tendency to throw in the odd howler once in race but the trip and ground should pose no problems - at 9/1 his price is about right. Soll finished seventh in the Aintree showpiece last year and connections have the same target this year. The horse has form on heavy but the handler has indicated his charge doesn't appreciate it which is why, I assume, he's priced at 20/1.
I'll take an each-way interest in Loch Ba, trained by Mick Channon, having formerly been with Hen Knight.
Welsh National form is represented by Hawkes Point (second), Merry King (fourth) with Red Rocco and Well Refreshed both pulled up while Emperor's Choice won the West Wales National at Ffos Las a fortnigtht ago. You know, I can still see Well Refreshed winning this event last year despite jumping straight through the final flight as though it wasn't there...
16/1 chance Wychwoods Brook upset several more fancied runners when taking the Peter Marsh here four weeks ago (Merry King third); that was a decent show from Evan Williams' novice who was formerly with Graeme McPherson. There may be more to come but Our Father is one that hasn't really lived up to lofty expectations.
My search for a runner at an each-way price led me to consider, amongst others, Loch Ba and Soll. The former ran creditably in Warwick's Classic Chase five weeks ago; he has a tendency to throw in the odd howler once in race but the trip and ground should pose no problems - at 9/1 his price is about right. Soll finished seventh in the Aintree showpiece last year and connections have the same target this year. The horse has form on heavy but the handler has indicated his charge doesn't appreciate it which is why, I assume, he's priced at 20/1.
I'll take an each-way interest in Loch Ba, trained by Mick Channon, having formerly been with Hen Knight.
Friday, February 07, 2014
Newbury's Super Saturday 2014
Tomorrow's meetings at Newbury and Warwick are both subject to early morning inspections.
In the Game Spirit at Newbury (3.00) Dodging Bullets looks the likely favourite but I'm with Tom George's Module. On official ratings this one has two pounds in hand over Paul Nicholls' charge and receives an additional three pounds under the conditions of the race. Last time out Module never really troubled the principals in Huntingdon's Peterborough Chase but this drop back to two miles should suit.
Al Ferof leads the market for the Denman Chase (2.25) and favourites have a reasonable record with four wins from past nine renewals. I'm not tempted by Katenko who may well improve on his fourth in Haydock's Peter Marsh but Venetia Williams' charge has taken time to come to hand this year while Harry Topper's jumping has been a concern in the past and the gelding has been done no favours at the weights. I won't play.
The last horse older than six to win the Betfair Hurdle (3.35) was Geos in 2004. Of those set to carry less than 11 stones, the two Pipe runners catch the eye. Professor Caroline Tisdall shelled out 280,000 euros of her own money to buy Dell'Arca who won the Greatwood at Cheltenham before coming to grief in a nasty-looking incident at Ascot next time out. Provided that mishap hasn't affected the confidence Dell'Arca should run a nice race while Pipe's other entry, Swing Bowler, finished third in this race last year behind My Tent Or Yours and Cotton Mill. The mare hasn't seen a track for eleven months but as a consequence she contests this year's renewal off a mark just two pounds higher. Connections have indicated she wouldn't want the ground too soft and another tilt at the mares' hurdle at next month's Cheltenham Festival is the target. Jumps Road has winning form on heavy ground and has run into third spot at big prices behind Melodic Rendezvous and The New One in recent weeks; Colin Tizzard's inmate is worth a small each-way interest at 33/1 with Skybet who are paying a quarter the odds five places.
In the Game Spirit at Newbury (3.00) Dodging Bullets looks the likely favourite but I'm with Tom George's Module. On official ratings this one has two pounds in hand over Paul Nicholls' charge and receives an additional three pounds under the conditions of the race. Last time out Module never really troubled the principals in Huntingdon's Peterborough Chase but this drop back to two miles should suit.
Al Ferof leads the market for the Denman Chase (2.25) and favourites have a reasonable record with four wins from past nine renewals. I'm not tempted by Katenko who may well improve on his fourth in Haydock's Peter Marsh but Venetia Williams' charge has taken time to come to hand this year while Harry Topper's jumping has been a concern in the past and the gelding has been done no favours at the weights. I won't play.
The last horse older than six to win the Betfair Hurdle (3.35) was Geos in 2004. Of those set to carry less than 11 stones, the two Pipe runners catch the eye. Professor Caroline Tisdall shelled out 280,000 euros of her own money to buy Dell'Arca who won the Greatwood at Cheltenham before coming to grief in a nasty-looking incident at Ascot next time out. Provided that mishap hasn't affected the confidence Dell'Arca should run a nice race while Pipe's other entry, Swing Bowler, finished third in this race last year behind My Tent Or Yours and Cotton Mill. The mare hasn't seen a track for eleven months but as a consequence she contests this year's renewal off a mark just two pounds higher. Connections have indicated she wouldn't want the ground too soft and another tilt at the mares' hurdle at next month's Cheltenham Festival is the target. Jumps Road has winning form on heavy ground and has run into third spot at big prices behind Melodic Rendezvous and The New One in recent weeks; Colin Tizzard's inmate is worth a small each-way interest at 33/1 with Skybet who are paying a quarter the odds five places.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Whether the weather at Wetherby will relent...
At the time of writing, tomorrow's jumps cards are subject to inspections as follows:
Ffos Las: 07.30
Sandown (all chase card): 07.45
Wetherby: 08.00
Wetherby looks to have the best chance of beating the weather but whether they will is another matter.
I'm not convinced, so I'm going to watch the rugby instead.
Ffos Las: 07.30
Sandown (all chase card): 07.45
Wetherby: 08.00
Wetherby looks to have the best chance of beating the weather but whether they will is another matter.
I'm not convinced, so I'm going to watch the rugby instead.
Friday, January 24, 2014
Cheltenham Trials Day 2014
The return of Big Buck's in tomorrow's Cleeve Hurdle is the big news at Cheltenham's Trials Day meeting. The great horse bids for his 19th consecutive win, a run that started way back on New Year's Day 2009 with victory in the Unicorn Homes Handicap Hurdle. He went off 9/2 that day and has started odds against only twice since: the Cleeve Hurdle in 2009 at 7/2 and the World Hurdle (same year) at 6/1. In the light of that, there will be those who take the view that at 11/10 with several bookmakers this evening, Big Buck's is the value.
Connections have been bullish enough in the build-up given the horse has been off the track for 420 days and has a new pilot aboard in the shape of Sam Twiston-Davies. To my mind Sam's riding isn't as tactically astute as many of the older hands in the weighing room - I thought he came out a distinct second best when pipped by McCoy on My Tent Or Yours in Kempton's Christmas Hurdle; that said, Reve De Sivola and Quartz De Thaix are two who will look to press on tomorrow. The trouble is, if you're looking to oppose, the layers don't seem too keen to lay...
Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the obvious one while it appears Willie Mullins is hoping Boston Bob will turn out to be another Big Buck's following a couple of mishaps over the larger obstacles. At Fishers Cross' confidence looked shot the last day and the yard's form is ordinary at present but Quartz De Thaix is a tough customer particularly on testing ground - quotes of 50/1 are an insult. On balance I'm not inclined to play.
No favourite has come home in front in the Argento in the past ten years; Rocky Creek heads the market and deservedly so. I saw him win easily at Warwick 12 months ago - he didn't strike me as an out-and-out stayer then but I had to revise that opinion after his second behind Triolo D'alene in the Hennessy (Houblon Des Obeaux 18 lengths adrift in sixth).
Neither of the two Harrys - Harry Topper or Restless Harry - have convinced with their jumping but on official ratings The Giant Bolster is the one to beat. Unfortunately that's only half the story. The gelding has been out of sorts this term and in my book is on the verge of earning the comment 'has his own ideas about the game'. Trainer David Bridgwater is on record saying they have to treat this one with kid gloves but he has run well here before and my theory is tomorrow's pilot Tom Scudamore has been on board when he has put his best foot forward. There's something forlorn in the saying but I'm tempted to give The Giant Bolster, 15/2 with William Hill, another chance; I think I'll know my fate soon enough...
The Neptune should prove informative for future reference; the market tells us it's between Red Sherlock and Rathvinden who fell when making his move at Warwick a fortnight ago. Rated 140 Aubusson (7/1) won from the front over course and distance on New Year's Day and represents a sporting play against the principals.
Connections have been bullish enough in the build-up given the horse has been off the track for 420 days and has a new pilot aboard in the shape of Sam Twiston-Davies. To my mind Sam's riding isn't as tactically astute as many of the older hands in the weighing room - I thought he came out a distinct second best when pipped by McCoy on My Tent Or Yours in Kempton's Christmas Hurdle; that said, Reve De Sivola and Quartz De Thaix are two who will look to press on tomorrow. The trouble is, if you're looking to oppose, the layers don't seem too keen to lay...
Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the obvious one while it appears Willie Mullins is hoping Boston Bob will turn out to be another Big Buck's following a couple of mishaps over the larger obstacles. At Fishers Cross' confidence looked shot the last day and the yard's form is ordinary at present but Quartz De Thaix is a tough customer particularly on testing ground - quotes of 50/1 are an insult. On balance I'm not inclined to play.
No favourite has come home in front in the Argento in the past ten years; Rocky Creek heads the market and deservedly so. I saw him win easily at Warwick 12 months ago - he didn't strike me as an out-and-out stayer then but I had to revise that opinion after his second behind Triolo D'alene in the Hennessy (Houblon Des Obeaux 18 lengths adrift in sixth).
Neither of the two Harrys - Harry Topper or Restless Harry - have convinced with their jumping but on official ratings The Giant Bolster is the one to beat. Unfortunately that's only half the story. The gelding has been out of sorts this term and in my book is on the verge of earning the comment 'has his own ideas about the game'. Trainer David Bridgwater is on record saying they have to treat this one with kid gloves but he has run well here before and my theory is tomorrow's pilot Tom Scudamore has been on board when he has put his best foot forward. There's something forlorn in the saying but I'm tempted to give The Giant Bolster, 15/2 with William Hill, another chance; I think I'll know my fate soon enough...
The Neptune should prove informative for future reference; the market tells us it's between Red Sherlock and Rathvinden who fell when making his move at Warwick a fortnight ago. Rated 140 Aubusson (7/1) won from the front over course and distance on New Year's Day and represents a sporting play against the principals.
Friday, January 17, 2014
Heavy going at Haydock...
A couple of my 'potential' value plays at Haydock have fallen by the wayside this evening.
Melodic Rendezvous is a horse I like and on his best form would serve up a stiff test for Ptit Zig in the Champion Hurdle Trial at 2.40 but handler Jeremy Scott told At The Races:
'In reality he's probably just a little bit short of where we'd like him to be... We may lack for a bit of fitness, but there's plenty of time [for the Champion Hurdle], so it would be nice to get a run into him now and another one in February and then see where we are.'
The value about O'faolains Boy in The Altcar Novices' Chase at 1.30 has also disappeared with the withdrawal of David Pipe's Gevrey Chambertin. In last week's Weekender, Rebecca Curtis said of her charge:
'He is the one horse in the yard who is under the radar yet could be a real star this season... I hope this horse has a big future.'
Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty boast a strong record at Ascot so it's interesting to see the stable jockey prefers to travel north to ride Stand To Reason in The Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (2.05).
Having cost a pretty penny, Un Temps Pour Tout has his first run in this country for owners Professor Caroline Tisdall and Bryan Drew; David Pipe's inmate is likely to be all the rage.
Zandy Man made all to win the listed Newton Novices' Hurdle over course and distance in November and similar tactics may be employed tomorrow; in search of some value I'm tempted to chance Stand To Reason, 9/2 generally at the time of writing.
Ten are declared for the Peter Marsh (3.15) in which Katenko will have underfoot conditions to suit but Venetia Williams' gelding has to race off a mark ten pounds higher than when winning the Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham last January.
Four in the field obliged last time out and as a result have seen their handicap mark rise; Merry King's rating is travelling in the opposite direction and he may benefit from the application of a first-time visor but Jonjo O'Neill's yard has been out of sorts in recent weeks.
Vintage Star ran well for a long way in the Welsh National before fading to finish sixth; prior to that he was pipped a neck in Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase by Hey Big Spender. Owned by Haydock stalwart Trevor Hemmings, Vintage Star is the selection in an open race; he's priced 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
Melodic Rendezvous is a horse I like and on his best form would serve up a stiff test for Ptit Zig in the Champion Hurdle Trial at 2.40 but handler Jeremy Scott told At The Races:
'In reality he's probably just a little bit short of where we'd like him to be... We may lack for a bit of fitness, but there's plenty of time [for the Champion Hurdle], so it would be nice to get a run into him now and another one in February and then see where we are.'
The value about O'faolains Boy in The Altcar Novices' Chase at 1.30 has also disappeared with the withdrawal of David Pipe's Gevrey Chambertin. In last week's Weekender, Rebecca Curtis said of her charge:
'He is the one horse in the yard who is under the radar yet could be a real star this season... I hope this horse has a big future.'
Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty boast a strong record at Ascot so it's interesting to see the stable jockey prefers to travel north to ride Stand To Reason in The Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (2.05).
Having cost a pretty penny, Un Temps Pour Tout has his first run in this country for owners Professor Caroline Tisdall and Bryan Drew; David Pipe's inmate is likely to be all the rage.
Zandy Man made all to win the listed Newton Novices' Hurdle over course and distance in November and similar tactics may be employed tomorrow; in search of some value I'm tempted to chance Stand To Reason, 9/2 generally at the time of writing.
Ten are declared for the Peter Marsh (3.15) in which Katenko will have underfoot conditions to suit but Venetia Williams' gelding has to race off a mark ten pounds higher than when winning the Murphy Group Chase at Cheltenham last January.
Four in the field obliged last time out and as a result have seen their handicap mark rise; Merry King's rating is travelling in the opposite direction and he may benefit from the application of a first-time visor but Jonjo O'Neill's yard has been out of sorts in recent weeks.
Vintage Star ran well for a long way in the Welsh National before fading to finish sixth; prior to that he was pipped a neck in Newcastle's Rehearsal Chase by Hey Big Spender. Owned by Haydock stalwart Trevor Hemmings, Vintage Star is the selection in an open race; he's priced 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Kempton's Tolworth Hurdle
Seven declared for tomorrow's re-arranged Tolworth at Kempton with layers marking up The Liquidator as favourite; trainer David Pipe is on record saying Sandown would probably have suited his charge better than this sharp track.
Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.
Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.
I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.
In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.
On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.
Willie Mullins appears to have a surfeit of riches in the novice hurdle department - the general feeling is Upazo wouldn't necessarily be the best in the yard but they'll find out more tomorrow. Having said that, five of the seven have been allocated an official handicap rating and Walsh's mount has six pounds in hand over his nearest rival.
Josses Hill would be the pick of the Henderson pair while Prince Siegfried was in the process of running a big race the last day when taking an horrendous looking fall at the final flight in Ascot's Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle - Irving collected the spoils that day and was amongst the five-day declarations for this but connections have decided not to run. Without that heavy fall, Prince Siegfried was a player in my book but it's a major worry and his trainer's comment 'He's a confidence horse' after the gelding's victory at Huntingdon in November doesn't inspire confidence now.
I can't have Creepy (also declared at Warwick 3.00) after a desperately poor show of hurdling in the Challow but Garde La Victoire is of interest. He lost his unbeaten record when pipped a neck by Ballyalton at Cheltenham last time but that doesn't tell the whole story as the form book reports the gelding 'stood at start for 20 seconds before getting going' that day. Perhaps Philip Hobbs' charge isn't entirely straight-forward.
In my book the value this evening is Upazo (7/2 Coral, Bet Victor) and Garde La Victoire (6/1 Boylesports). I'll chance Garde La Victoire - with victories at Aintree and Warwick to his name already, this track should suit.
On RP ratings Killala Quay is the top-rated animal in Warwick's Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) so the 5/1 generally available about Charlie Longsdon's charge looks a fair price - Willie Mullins saddles Rathvinden (as short as 7/4 with Ladbrokes) while Deputy Dan (4/1) has also come in for support.
Friday, January 03, 2014
Good news and bad news...
The bad news first - Sandown's meeting tomorrow scheduled to feature the Tolworth Hurdle has been abandoned due to a waterlogged track.
The good news is that this morning Sprinter Sacre came through a crucial workout on the gallops and his heart-rate was reported as 'normal'.
Trainer Nicky Henderson hasn't ruled out a tilt at this year's Queen Mother Champion Chase; layers have re-introduced the horse into their betting at odds of 4/5.
Now, as we all know, there are no certainties with horses so this evening I'm wondering whether there's some value opposing the favourites in the Champion Chase ante-post market.
After defeat at the hands of Kid Cassidy in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham in November, connections of Sire De Grugy (currently second favourite at around 7/2) stated they wouldn't go back to Prestbury Park as their charge was unsuited by the undulating track. Will they re-consider now?
Connections of Cue Card (6/1 in places) could be tempted back to two miles but the talk to date has been of a tilt at the Gold Cup.
So, in search of a value angle, I'm thinking of spending some time looking in more detail at the claims of horses such as Benefficient, Somersby, Twinlight, Hidden Cyclone, Captain Conan, Kid Cassidy and Arvika Ligeonniere...
Good idea or a waste of time?
The good news is that this morning Sprinter Sacre came through a crucial workout on the gallops and his heart-rate was reported as 'normal'.
Trainer Nicky Henderson hasn't ruled out a tilt at this year's Queen Mother Champion Chase; layers have re-introduced the horse into their betting at odds of 4/5.
Now, as we all know, there are no certainties with horses so this evening I'm wondering whether there's some value opposing the favourites in the Champion Chase ante-post market.
After defeat at the hands of Kid Cassidy in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham in November, connections of Sire De Grugy (currently second favourite at around 7/2) stated they wouldn't go back to Prestbury Park as their charge was unsuited by the undulating track. Will they re-consider now?
Connections of Cue Card (6/1 in places) could be tempted back to two miles but the talk to date has been of a tilt at the Gold Cup.
So, in search of a value angle, I'm thinking of spending some time looking in more detail at the claims of horses such as Benefficient, Somersby, Twinlight, Hidden Cyclone, Captain Conan, Kid Cassidy and Arvika Ligeonniere...
Good idea or a waste of time?
Friday, December 27, 2013
A chance for the Challow
Rather spoilt for choice tomorrow with the Welsh National at Chepstow, the Lexus at Leopardstown and the Challow at Newbury.
The world and his wife have put up Well Refreshed for the Welsh National after his eye-catching trial in Sandown's London National three weeks ago. Allocated to carry just 10-2, and with Josh Moore able to claim a further three pounds, Gary Moore's gelding will certainly relish underfoot conditions but his jumping can be haphazard - I still recall the manner in which he practically ran through the final fence of Haydock's Grand National Trial on similar ground in February. I'm not tempted.
Gold cup winner Bobs Worth is on a retrieval mission in the Lexus after a below-par effort in the Betfair Chase last month. Connections don't sound overly confident and Henderson's horses are struggling at the moment - box office draw Sprinter Sacre was pulled up and diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton earlier today while Grandouet was turned over at odds of 1/2 in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase. Willie Mullins' Sir Des Champs blotted his copy book when falling last time but he's still my idea of the winner - Walsh rides Rubi Ball who could be anything.
Only six in the Challow but it's decidedly tricky. Likely favourite Oscar Rock has won a listed bumper at the track while Timesremembered failed to give seven pounds to Creepy the last day at Cheltenham. On a literal interpretation of that form Creepy has it to do to confirm the placings and the market prices on offer suggest bookmakers concur. To my mind Creepy has improvement to come but to date he has shown his best form on better ground so I'm going to stick with Emma Lavelle's Timesremembered (7/2 generally) who is the best horse in the race on official ratings. Those same ratings also indicate that Kaki De La Pree is in there with a shout...
The world and his wife have put up Well Refreshed for the Welsh National after his eye-catching trial in Sandown's London National three weeks ago. Allocated to carry just 10-2, and with Josh Moore able to claim a further three pounds, Gary Moore's gelding will certainly relish underfoot conditions but his jumping can be haphazard - I still recall the manner in which he practically ran through the final fence of Haydock's Grand National Trial on similar ground in February. I'm not tempted.
Gold cup winner Bobs Worth is on a retrieval mission in the Lexus after a below-par effort in the Betfair Chase last month. Connections don't sound overly confident and Henderson's horses are struggling at the moment - box office draw Sprinter Sacre was pulled up and diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat at Kempton earlier today while Grandouet was turned over at odds of 1/2 in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase. Willie Mullins' Sir Des Champs blotted his copy book when falling last time but he's still my idea of the winner - Walsh rides Rubi Ball who could be anything.
Only six in the Challow but it's decidedly tricky. Likely favourite Oscar Rock has won a listed bumper at the track while Timesremembered failed to give seven pounds to Creepy the last day at Cheltenham. On a literal interpretation of that form Creepy has it to do to confirm the placings and the market prices on offer suggest bookmakers concur. To my mind Creepy has improvement to come but to date he has shown his best form on better ground so I'm going to stick with Emma Lavelle's Timesremembered (7/2 generally) who is the best horse in the race on official ratings. Those same ratings also indicate that Kaki De La Pree is in there with a shout...
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Kempton's King George VI Chase 2013
Nine are declared for this year's King George. Cue Card, fifth last year, is priced up favourite with most layers while last year's winner Long Run is generally a 10/1 chance.
Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.
Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.
Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.
Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...
On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.
Last month I tipped Silviniaco Conti for the Betfair Chase at Haydock. Despite travelling well through the race, Nicholls' charge couldn't go with either Cue Card or Dynaste from two out and on face value he'll struggle to reverse those placings yet official ratings indicate he is within one pound of top-rated Cue Card. Nicholls' string wasn't firing on all cylinders at that time; on the same day as the Haydock showpiece Nicholls' first jock Daryl Jacob was at Ascot riding Al Ferof in a match against French Opera. Al Ferof's fencing looked a little ring-rusty there but Jacob stays loyal to Al Ferof.
Cue Card posted a career best to win the Betfair Chase proving he stays the trip. He's likely to race prominently but isn't always the most fluent at the obstacles; on balance I think he could struggle to repeat his front-running feat at this track - last year he blew away his chance with a howler at the first.
Dynaste was an easy winner of the Feltham over course and distance last year. In a very open renewal, I take Dynaste to grab the spoils - he's priced up generally at 100/30.
Long Run, wearing a first-time visor, rates a value each-way selection at 10/1. Invariably he throws in one dodgy jump on the way round but should the visor do the trick...
On paper the Christmas Hurdle is a match between The New One and My Tent Or Yours. Throughout his career Twiston-Davies has favoured a bold risk-taking approach; he immediately nominated this race after his charge won the International at Cheltenham just 12 days ago, implying his charge had had an easy enough race. I'm not so convinced; I won't have a bet but this track is likely to suit Henderson's charge better.
Friday, December 20, 2013
Ascot's Lomg Walk Hurdle 2013
I've had more beers than I should have but, hey, it's Christmas...
Paddy Power go 7/2 Reve De Sivola for the Long Walk with Celestial Halo looking a non-runner.
Take it or leave it, but, in my humble opinion, Reve De Sivola's chance improves with every drop of rain that falls before the off. At Fishers Cross wasn't particularly fluent at the flights last time and on official ratings Reve has just one pound to find with the odds-on favourite...
Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the value selection.
Paddy Power go 7/2 Reve De Sivola for the Long Walk with Celestial Halo looking a non-runner.
Take it or leave it, but, in my humble opinion, Reve De Sivola's chance improves with every drop of rain that falls before the off. At Fishers Cross wasn't particularly fluent at the flights last time and on official ratings Reve has just one pound to find with the odds-on favourite...
Last year's winner Reve De Sivola is the value selection.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Small fields at Cheltenham's December meet
Several small fields at Cheltenham tomorrow restricting betting opportunities - I'm not inclined to oppose The New One in the International or Kings Palace in the Albert Bartlett while the novice chase at 12.40 offers Shutthefrontdoor the chance to reverse recent running with Le Bec on three pounds better terms but the race makes little appeal from a punting perspective.
The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup looks an open affair. Paddy Power Gold Cup form from four weeks ago is well represented with Colour Squadron (second), Attaglance (fourth), Tap Night (eighth) and Easter Meteor (fell when in lead two out) all reopposing eventual winner Johns Spirit. Although tapped for toe three out, Attaglance ran a nice enough race that day - at 8/1 he's worth an each-way interest.
In the finale a case can be made for all four runners. On ratings Gemix is the one but Salubrious took the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' handicap hurdle at the Festival in March and Willie Mullins has sent just one over from Ireland - bay mare Glens Melody - with Ruby Walsh taking the ride. I'm tempted to chance Glens Melody, the outsider of the quartet.
The Stewart Family Thank You Gold Cup looks an open affair. Paddy Power Gold Cup form from four weeks ago is well represented with Colour Squadron (second), Attaglance (fourth), Tap Night (eighth) and Easter Meteor (fell when in lead two out) all reopposing eventual winner Johns Spirit. Although tapped for toe three out, Attaglance ran a nice enough race that day - at 8/1 he's worth an each-way interest.
In the finale a case can be made for all four runners. On ratings Gemix is the one but Salubrious took the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' handicap hurdle at the Festival in March and Willie Mullins has sent just one over from Ireland - bay mare Glens Melody - with Ruby Walsh taking the ride. I'm tempted to chance Glens Melody, the outsider of the quartet.
Friday, December 06, 2013
Sandown selections for Saturday
I'm on a particularly poor run of form at the moment that started some 25 years ago...
The racing phenomenon that is Sprinter Sacre has to miss tomorrow's Tingle Creek at Sandown following a dirty tracheal wash. In his absence top-rated Sire De Grugy has eight pounds in hand over his nearest rival (Somersby) yet there was a definite lack of fizz about his last run in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham when beaten three and a quarter lengths by Kid Cassidy. I've seen it suggested Gary Moore's charge may be better going right-handed - he hung right after the last at Cheltenham - so there may be something in that. Following an effortless win at Chepstow, connections were keen to talk about taking on Sprinter Sacre - Sire De Grugy needs to win this if those lofty ambitions are to be realised. Should he come up short, Somersby and Captain Conan, both course and distance winners, will be waiting in the wings. Sire De Grugy is the form choice and my selection.
The Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1.50) is right out of the top drawer and should provide a useful pointer going forward. Grandouet boasts the best hurdles form but on his chase debut over course and distance the fencing looked decidedly awkward at times; he appeared held by Hinterland when coming to grief at the final flight while, similarly, Hinterland was far from fluent at the obstacles. Sandown with its Railway fences sets a stern test for any novice. Taquin Du Seuil has shown form over further but is afforded every respect while Balder Succes would have been three from three had he not come to grief two out at Cheltenham on his penultimate run. Connections of Claret Cloak will fancy their chances of reversing recent Exeter form five pounds better off with Manyriverstocross. In my book this rests between Balder Succes and Taquin Du Seuil; with layers struggling to agree a favourite this evening, Taquin Du Seuil gets the nod.
Fans of long distance chases are well catered for with the Becher at Aintree while the London National brings proceedings to a close at Sandown (Ikorodu Road having an entry in both races). I've lost count of the number of times I've half-fancied Alfie Spinner only for the beast to disappoint. Still, his second in the Badger Ales behind Standing Ovation last time reads well and he contests this off a mark 12 pounds lower than that from which he started last year's Hennessy. He finished three and a quarter lengths ahead of Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise at Wincanton but is two pounds worse off with that rival this time - they look closely matched. With Lavelle's inmate not certain to stay the extended trip I'm going to take chance with Alan King's Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. The top weight ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham three weeks ago - although coming home fifth he was beaten under five lengths and is priced up at 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
The racing phenomenon that is Sprinter Sacre has to miss tomorrow's Tingle Creek at Sandown following a dirty tracheal wash. In his absence top-rated Sire De Grugy has eight pounds in hand over his nearest rival (Somersby) yet there was a definite lack of fizz about his last run in the Schloer Chase at Cheltenham when beaten three and a quarter lengths by Kid Cassidy. I've seen it suggested Gary Moore's charge may be better going right-handed - he hung right after the last at Cheltenham - so there may be something in that. Following an effortless win at Chepstow, connections were keen to talk about taking on Sprinter Sacre - Sire De Grugy needs to win this if those lofty ambitions are to be realised. Should he come up short, Somersby and Captain Conan, both course and distance winners, will be waiting in the wings. Sire De Grugy is the form choice and my selection.
The Henry VIII Novices' Chase (1.50) is right out of the top drawer and should provide a useful pointer going forward. Grandouet boasts the best hurdles form but on his chase debut over course and distance the fencing looked decidedly awkward at times; he appeared held by Hinterland when coming to grief at the final flight while, similarly, Hinterland was far from fluent at the obstacles. Sandown with its Railway fences sets a stern test for any novice. Taquin Du Seuil has shown form over further but is afforded every respect while Balder Succes would have been three from three had he not come to grief two out at Cheltenham on his penultimate run. Connections of Claret Cloak will fancy their chances of reversing recent Exeter form five pounds better off with Manyriverstocross. In my book this rests between Balder Succes and Taquin Du Seuil; with layers struggling to agree a favourite this evening, Taquin Du Seuil gets the nod.
Fans of long distance chases are well catered for with the Becher at Aintree while the London National brings proceedings to a close at Sandown (Ikorodu Road having an entry in both races). I've lost count of the number of times I've half-fancied Alfie Spinner only for the beast to disappoint. Still, his second in the Badger Ales behind Standing Ovation last time reads well and he contests this off a mark 12 pounds lower than that from which he started last year's Hennessy. He finished three and a quarter lengths ahead of Emma Lavelle's Court By Surprise at Wincanton but is two pounds worse off with that rival this time - they look closely matched. With Lavelle's inmate not certain to stay the extended trip I'm going to take chance with Alan King's Scottish National winner Godsmejudge. The top weight ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham three weeks ago - although coming home fifth he was beaten under five lengths and is priced up at 7/1 with Stan James this evening.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Three quick picks for Hennessy Saturday...
Presseed for time this evening so, very quickly...
Newcastle's Fighting Fifth (2.05) looks to have a little more strength in depth than in recent years. Odds-on shot My Tent Or Yours is top-rated but several of Henderson's have needed their first run. I'll oppose with Melodic Rendezvous who took the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago even though handler Jeremy Scott thought his charge would come on for the run. Should eight make it to post, 14/1 about John Quinn's four-year-old filly Cockney Sparrow looks reasonable each-way value.
This year's Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3.00) is wide open. Several fancied runners have been backed through the week, yet I suspect many of them would ideally prefer a little more cut underfoot. An each-way longshot that looks overpriced to me is Same Difference (33/1) who won at the Festival in March and went on to finish second to Quentin Collonges in Sandown's bet365 Gold Cup. On his seasonal debut at Ascot he raced prominently for a while before fading to come home some 35 lengths behind Houblon Des Obeaux (Merry King second, Triolo D'Alene third, Opening Batsman pulled up). The winner has been raised a hefty 10 pounds for that effort (stable jock Aidan Coleman prefers Katenko here) and, obviously, I'm hoping (against hope?) that run has blown away some of the cobwebs...
Opening Batsman (40/1) was amongst the market leaders for that Ascot race but was never a a factor. Still, he took the Racing Plus Chase on good grouind at Kempton in February and a return to that sort of form could see him being competitive. Same Difference is the each-way suggestion.
Finally I'm guessing Donald McCain Jnr will be trying his very hardest to win the race run in memory of his father, the Ginger McCain Memorial Novices' Chase (Bangor 12.30); Swatow Typhoon is his entry in the Class 3 event.
Newcastle's Fighting Fifth (2.05) looks to have a little more strength in depth than in recent years. Odds-on shot My Tent Or Yours is top-rated but several of Henderson's have needed their first run. I'll oppose with Melodic Rendezvous who took the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton three weeks ago even though handler Jeremy Scott thought his charge would come on for the run. Should eight make it to post, 14/1 about John Quinn's four-year-old filly Cockney Sparrow looks reasonable each-way value.
This year's Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury 3.00) is wide open. Several fancied runners have been backed through the week, yet I suspect many of them would ideally prefer a little more cut underfoot. An each-way longshot that looks overpriced to me is Same Difference (33/1) who won at the Festival in March and went on to finish second to Quentin Collonges in Sandown's bet365 Gold Cup. On his seasonal debut at Ascot he raced prominently for a while before fading to come home some 35 lengths behind Houblon Des Obeaux (Merry King second, Triolo D'Alene third, Opening Batsman pulled up). The winner has been raised a hefty 10 pounds for that effort (stable jock Aidan Coleman prefers Katenko here) and, obviously, I'm hoping (against hope?) that run has blown away some of the cobwebs...
Opening Batsman (40/1) was amongst the market leaders for that Ascot race but was never a a factor. Still, he took the Racing Plus Chase on good grouind at Kempton in February and a return to that sort of form could see him being competitive. Same Difference is the each-way suggestion.
Finally I'm guessing Donald McCain Jnr will be trying his very hardest to win the race run in memory of his father, the Ginger McCain Memorial Novices' Chase (Bangor 12.30); Swatow Typhoon is his entry in the Class 3 event.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Haydock's Betfair Chase 2013
Tomorrow's card at Ascot has a total of just 49 declarations for the seven races; I'm guessing the racecourse will be less than happy and distinctly embarrassed by three entries for the Amlin Chase and four for the Coral Hurdle.
By contrast Haydock boasts probably the best ever renewal of the Betfair Chase with current Gold Cup holder Bobs Worth renewing rivalry with Silviniaco Conti (winner of this race last year), stablemate Long Run and The Giant Bolster.
On official ratings Bobs Worth has upwards of seven pounds in hand over his rivals. Still, Haydock's sharp track isn't certain to suit - in the Gold Cup last March Bobs Worth was outpaced four from home and then stayed on stoutly to reel in his opponents while Silviniaco Conti fell three from home when still in with a shout.
I like Cue Card and Timeform rates his chance but he's never won over further than two miles five and the Tizzard operation is just 1 win from 24 in the past fortnight while Dynaste still has it to prove at this level. The Giant Bolster finished third behind Silviniaco in last year's renewal.
You couldn't back Long Run after his run in the Charlie Hall the last day but 12/1 is a big price about a previous Gold Cup winner - that Wetherby effort was the first time Nicky Henderson's charge had finished outside the places.
Tidal Bay is an enigma but apparently as good as ever at the age of twelve while Irish challenger Roi Du Mee was a surprise winner of the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal three weeks ago - he can race from the front, a tactic suited to this track, and on ratings has an outside squeak so 20/1 may appeal to those looking for each-way value.
Paul Nicholls has sent out three winners today - Fago [9/4] and Black Thunder [11/4] at Haydock and Irving [8/11] at Ascot; Silviniaco Conti gets the vote in a fascinating renewal.
By contrast Haydock boasts probably the best ever renewal of the Betfair Chase with current Gold Cup holder Bobs Worth renewing rivalry with Silviniaco Conti (winner of this race last year), stablemate Long Run and The Giant Bolster.
On official ratings Bobs Worth has upwards of seven pounds in hand over his rivals. Still, Haydock's sharp track isn't certain to suit - in the Gold Cup last March Bobs Worth was outpaced four from home and then stayed on stoutly to reel in his opponents while Silviniaco Conti fell three from home when still in with a shout.
I like Cue Card and Timeform rates his chance but he's never won over further than two miles five and the Tizzard operation is just 1 win from 24 in the past fortnight while Dynaste still has it to prove at this level. The Giant Bolster finished third behind Silviniaco in last year's renewal.
You couldn't back Long Run after his run in the Charlie Hall the last day but 12/1 is a big price about a previous Gold Cup winner - that Wetherby effort was the first time Nicky Henderson's charge had finished outside the places.
Tidal Bay is an enigma but apparently as good as ever at the age of twelve while Irish challenger Roi Du Mee was a surprise winner of the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal three weeks ago - he can race from the front, a tactic suited to this track, and on ratings has an outside squeak so 20/1 may appeal to those looking for each-way value.
Paul Nicholls has sent out three winners today - Fago [9/4] and Black Thunder [11/4] at Haydock and Irving [8/11] at Ascot; Silviniaco Conti gets the vote in a fascinating renewal.
Friday, November 15, 2013
The Open and Shut case
Champion Court is my idea of the winner of tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham but the trouble is a lot of other people have exactly the same idea - any value in the price disappeared a long time ago. Martin Keighley's gelding is a course and distance winner and has had this race as a target for some time.
Still, he has his share of weight (only one horse has carried more than 11-6 to victory in the past decade - last year's winner Al Ferof) while seven of the past ten winners were burdened with less than 11-0. The suspicion is something near the bottom of the handicap could prevail, although what the name of the beast might be is well beyond me - at the prices on offer, I won't play.
The novice chase at 1.15 is interesting. African Gold, second in the Albert Bartlett in March, is priced up favourite on his first try over fences but he faces opposition who will have no trouble taking advantage should the obstacles get in the way. White Star Line won the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel in September while both Shutthefrontdoor and Le Bec won impressively last time out. Sam Winner isn't totally discounted either although he fell on his two chase starts last season.
Shutthefrontdoor (3/1 with Ladbrokes this evening) jumped well at Aintree the last day and is the suggestion.
On Sunday Sire De Grugy goes in the Schloer. The manner in which he won a Class 2 chase at Chepstow three weeks ago would suggest connections will be disappointed if he can't follow up, although he's likely to be no price at all.
Still, he has his share of weight (only one horse has carried more than 11-6 to victory in the past decade - last year's winner Al Ferof) while seven of the past ten winners were burdened with less than 11-0. The suspicion is something near the bottom of the handicap could prevail, although what the name of the beast might be is well beyond me - at the prices on offer, I won't play.
The novice chase at 1.15 is interesting. African Gold, second in the Albert Bartlett in March, is priced up favourite on his first try over fences but he faces opposition who will have no trouble taking advantage should the obstacles get in the way. White Star Line won the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel in September while both Shutthefrontdoor and Le Bec won impressively last time out. Sam Winner isn't totally discounted either although he fell on his two chase starts last season.
Shutthefrontdoor (3/1 with Ladbrokes this evening) jumped well at Aintree the last day and is the suggestion.
On Sunday Sire De Grugy goes in the Schloer. The manner in which he won a Class 2 chase at Chepstow three weeks ago would suggest connections will be disappointed if he can't follow up, although he's likely to be no price at all.
Friday, November 08, 2013
Tony McCoy - we salute you!
On 26th March 1992 Anthony Peter McCoy, aged 17, rode his first winner, a horse called Legal Steps, at Thurles.
Yesterday aboard a horse named Mountain Tunes at Towcester, A P McCoy, aged 39, rode his 4,000th winner - to universal acclaim.
Quoting from the epilogue of his autobiography written in 2002:
'I...know there is more do. 300 winners in a season? 3,000 before I retire? Who knows, but be sure of one thing: I will try.'
3,000 winners came at a wet and windy Plumpton in 2009 on Restless D'Artaix; at the moment he doesn't appear to be harbouring any thoughts of retirement.
Who is to say he won't ride 5,000 winners? Well, his wife, Chanelle:
'I would quite confidently say that 5,000 is unattainable and he knows that himself.'
Perhaps that's why Paddy Power offers 10/1 about the current champion reaching that particular landmark.
Last word on the matter to John McCririck - his words, printed on the reverse cover of McCoy's autobiography, sound as true today as the day they were written:
'The man is a colossus, we have never seen his like before.'
McCoy has always been amongst the winners, in stark contrast to my good self...
In tomorrow's Elite Hurdle at Wincanton Melodic Rendezvous is the one to beat but I was impressed with the manner in which Karinga Dancer dominated his field at Aintree a fortnight ago; despite suffering interference two out and making a hash of the last, the gelding still had eight lengths on his nearest rival. Granted, this represents a step-up in class but he could have a fitness edge on a couple of the market rivals and boasts course and distance winning form. Paul Nicholls, who has a good record in this race in recent years, saddles Far West but only one four-year-old has obliged in the past decade and I'm still unsure whether all the stable's runners are seeing out their races, despite high-profile victories for Tidal Bay and Rolling Aces last weekend. On offer generally at 7/2 this evening, Karinga Dancer is the selection while the money for Cotton Mill has been noted.
Yesterday aboard a horse named Mountain Tunes at Towcester, A P McCoy, aged 39, rode his 4,000th winner - to universal acclaim.
Quoting from the epilogue of his autobiography written in 2002:
'I...know there is more do. 300 winners in a season? 3,000 before I retire? Who knows, but be sure of one thing: I will try.'
3,000 winners came at a wet and windy Plumpton in 2009 on Restless D'Artaix; at the moment he doesn't appear to be harbouring any thoughts of retirement.
Who is to say he won't ride 5,000 winners? Well, his wife, Chanelle:
'I would quite confidently say that 5,000 is unattainable and he knows that himself.'
Perhaps that's why Paddy Power offers 10/1 about the current champion reaching that particular landmark.
Last word on the matter to John McCririck - his words, printed on the reverse cover of McCoy's autobiography, sound as true today as the day they were written:
'The man is a colossus, we have never seen his like before.'
McCoy has always been amongst the winners, in stark contrast to my good self...
In tomorrow's Elite Hurdle at Wincanton Melodic Rendezvous is the one to beat but I was impressed with the manner in which Karinga Dancer dominated his field at Aintree a fortnight ago; despite suffering interference two out and making a hash of the last, the gelding still had eight lengths on his nearest rival. Granted, this represents a step-up in class but he could have a fitness edge on a couple of the market rivals and boasts course and distance winning form. Paul Nicholls, who has a good record in this race in recent years, saddles Far West but only one four-year-old has obliged in the past decade and I'm still unsure whether all the stable's runners are seeing out their races, despite high-profile victories for Tidal Bay and Rolling Aces last weekend. On offer generally at 7/2 this evening, Karinga Dancer is the selection while the money for Cotton Mill has been noted.
Friday, November 01, 2013
Two staying chases for Saturday
This evening Tony McCoy is just eight winners short of 4,000 while just seven are declared for Wetherby's Charlie Hall which still has a typically trappy look to it.
On ratings Long Run has something in hand over the field with connections reporting their charge has come to hand earlier this year. That said, he hasn't won on his seasonal debut in the past three years (third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2010 followed by two consecutive seconds in Haydock's Betfair Chase) and there's always the possibility he'll throw in the odd howler on the way round. At the price he's worth taking on.
Plenty will fancy Unioniste to take advantage but the form of Paul Nicholls' stable is a concern. At Chepstow last Saturday a number of the stable's leading fancies fell by the wayside - Just A Par (4/7f) had no answer to Shotgun Paddy; Ceasar Milan (11/8f) trailed in last of the seven (was reported to have bled after the race); Virak (11/1) came home last (reported to have choked turning into the home straight); and Rebel Rebellion (7/4f) came home fifth of six (vet reported gelding had lost a near fore shoe). Since then the stable has recorded one win from 12 (Southfield Theatre [4/5f] at Wincanton on Sunday) while 1/3 favourite Vicente failed to see out his race on that same Wincanton card.
There wasn't much between Harry Topper and Benefficient in a Newbury novice last year but on official ratings the Irish horse looks to have the edge here and he has the added advantage of having had a run six weeks ago.
Cape Tribulation never troubled the principals in the Gold Cup last March finishing fifth (Long Run third) but previously had won the Rowland Meyrick over course and distance on Boxing Day and a month later had added the Argento Chase to the haul just for good measure.
At the time of writing Cape Tribulation is best-priced 7/1 and Benefficient 8/1 so Benefficient is put up as a value wager against the market leaders.
And moving swiftly on to Ascot's United House Gold Cup at 3.20...
Five weeks ago Emma Lavelle's Bouggler won a competitive-looking handicap chase at Market Rasen with head in chest. Out of that race Al Co has since won a Chepstow Class 2 handicap (12/1), Grandads Horse a Wetherby Class 3 handicap (2/1), Wiesentraum a Fakenham Class 3 handicap (7/1), Twirling Magnet a Class 2 Cheltenham novice (7/1) while Rob Conti, second at Market Rasen, has finished second behind Johns Spirit in another Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (16/1).
Granted, this represents a step up in class for Bouggler (as well as Al Co and Twirling Magnet who re-oppose), but the trainer states 'Bouggler is working as well now as he ever has so I hope there's another big chase prize in him.' Weekender 16-20.10.13, p.14.
In the Weekender Stable Tour the following week (23 - 27.10.13) Lavelle says of her charge:
'When you win at £50k handicap by four and a half lengths then you expect to be punished, so the 10lb rise was fair. However he had been dropped 4lb before then, so theoretically he is only 6lb worse of now and he has come out of it very well.'
Added to that, tomorrow's pilot G. Sheehan can claim another three pounds.
Of course, this an ultra-competitive event; the field contains several interesting youngsters including Opening Batsman, Buddy Bolero,Triolo D'Alene, Same Difference and Houblon Des Obeaux.
Over the past decade horses aged eight or older have tended to take the spoils so Bouggler is the selection and at 9/1 with Stan James can be backed each-way (a quarter the odds four places provided 16 start).
However I suspect this could just be a step too far for Al Co who has to come from right off the pace - after that Chepstow win, trainer Peter Bowen said 'The key to him is to wait, wait and then wait again. He also doesn't like to be crowded.' The question is - will he be close enough coming off the home turn to make up the ground?
On ratings Long Run has something in hand over the field with connections reporting their charge has come to hand earlier this year. That said, he hasn't won on his seasonal debut in the past three years (third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2010 followed by two consecutive seconds in Haydock's Betfair Chase) and there's always the possibility he'll throw in the odd howler on the way round. At the price he's worth taking on.
Plenty will fancy Unioniste to take advantage but the form of Paul Nicholls' stable is a concern. At Chepstow last Saturday a number of the stable's leading fancies fell by the wayside - Just A Par (4/7f) had no answer to Shotgun Paddy; Ceasar Milan (11/8f) trailed in last of the seven (was reported to have bled after the race); Virak (11/1) came home last (reported to have choked turning into the home straight); and Rebel Rebellion (7/4f) came home fifth of six (vet reported gelding had lost a near fore shoe). Since then the stable has recorded one win from 12 (Southfield Theatre [4/5f] at Wincanton on Sunday) while 1/3 favourite Vicente failed to see out his race on that same Wincanton card.
There wasn't much between Harry Topper and Benefficient in a Newbury novice last year but on official ratings the Irish horse looks to have the edge here and he has the added advantage of having had a run six weeks ago.
Cape Tribulation never troubled the principals in the Gold Cup last March finishing fifth (Long Run third) but previously had won the Rowland Meyrick over course and distance on Boxing Day and a month later had added the Argento Chase to the haul just for good measure.
At the time of writing Cape Tribulation is best-priced 7/1 and Benefficient 8/1 so Benefficient is put up as a value wager against the market leaders.
And moving swiftly on to Ascot's United House Gold Cup at 3.20...
Five weeks ago Emma Lavelle's Bouggler won a competitive-looking handicap chase at Market Rasen with head in chest. Out of that race Al Co has since won a Chepstow Class 2 handicap (12/1), Grandads Horse a Wetherby Class 3 handicap (2/1), Wiesentraum a Fakenham Class 3 handicap (7/1), Twirling Magnet a Class 2 Cheltenham novice (7/1) while Rob Conti, second at Market Rasen, has finished second behind Johns Spirit in another Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham (16/1).
Granted, this represents a step up in class for Bouggler (as well as Al Co and Twirling Magnet who re-oppose), but the trainer states 'Bouggler is working as well now as he ever has so I hope there's another big chase prize in him.' Weekender 16-20.10.13, p.14.
In the Weekender Stable Tour the following week (23 - 27.10.13) Lavelle says of her charge:
'When you win at £50k handicap by four and a half lengths then you expect to be punished, so the 10lb rise was fair. However he had been dropped 4lb before then, so theoretically he is only 6lb worse of now and he has come out of it very well.'
Added to that, tomorrow's pilot G. Sheehan can claim another three pounds.
Of course, this an ultra-competitive event; the field contains several interesting youngsters including Opening Batsman, Buddy Bolero,Triolo D'Alene, Same Difference and Houblon Des Obeaux.
Over the past decade horses aged eight or older have tended to take the spoils so Bouggler is the selection and at 9/1 with Stan James can be backed each-way (a quarter the odds four places provided 16 start).
However I suspect this could just be a step too far for Al Co who has to come from right off the pace - after that Chepstow win, trainer Peter Bowen said 'The key to him is to wait, wait and then wait again. He also doesn't like to be crowded.' The question is - will he be close enough coming off the home turn to make up the ground?
Friday, October 25, 2013
Chepstow, Daryl Jacob, Sir Alex Ferguson and Rock Of Gibraltar
Just like Daryl Jacob, Paul Nicholls' stable jockey, I prefer Chepstow to Aintree for tomorrow's action.
Jacob rides Virak in the Silver Trophy at 4.10. The gelding could be anything and we don't have an awful lot to go on but he looks short enough in the market (one four-year-old winner in the past 10 years) against some battle-hardened handicappers. Last year's winner Lamb Or Cod races off a mark of 130, six pounds higher than last year, yet is still a 10/1 shot while Rebecca Curtis' Pechamenko,12/1 with Hills, appears to have had his problems over fences but was second in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las in February. A price of 10/1 about last year's winner is rather tempting - I'll take an each-way interest in Lamb Or Cod.
Sire De Grugy could struggle to give the weight away on the soft/heavy ground in the handicap chase at 4.45. Plenty will fancy Nicholls' Rebel Rebellion to take advantage but I'm going to risk Tom George's Kingmaker winner Majala priced at 7/2 this evening - the stable has had three winners during the week and boasts a 24.59% win strike-rate this season.
In the Persian War Novices' Hurdle (3.35) I note Ceasar Milan is owned by the Stewart and Wylie Families. Berkeley Baron has to give weight to all but has a run under his belt while Lienosus' second behind Clondaw Kaempfer reads well enough. Johnny Og has been on the radar for a while now; although priced at 25/1 he's held in high regard by connections - it's interesting to see they've opted for this race rather than the opening maiden hurdle. Johnny Og would have been an each-way suggestion had eight (or more) faced the starter.
Finally, just in case it passed you by, earlier this week Sir Alex Ferguson's autobiography was published. Reviews suggest that racing fans hoping to gain an insight into events surrounding Ferguson's involvement with Rock Of Gibraltar will find the subject 'glossed over'. For those interested Martin Hannan's Rock Of Gibraltar (2004) is the recommended read.
Jacob rides Virak in the Silver Trophy at 4.10. The gelding could be anything and we don't have an awful lot to go on but he looks short enough in the market (one four-year-old winner in the past 10 years) against some battle-hardened handicappers. Last year's winner Lamb Or Cod races off a mark of 130, six pounds higher than last year, yet is still a 10/1 shot while Rebecca Curtis' Pechamenko,12/1 with Hills, appears to have had his problems over fences but was second in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las in February. A price of 10/1 about last year's winner is rather tempting - I'll take an each-way interest in Lamb Or Cod.
Sire De Grugy could struggle to give the weight away on the soft/heavy ground in the handicap chase at 4.45. Plenty will fancy Nicholls' Rebel Rebellion to take advantage but I'm going to risk Tom George's Kingmaker winner Majala priced at 7/2 this evening - the stable has had three winners during the week and boasts a 24.59% win strike-rate this season.
In the Persian War Novices' Hurdle (3.35) I note Ceasar Milan is owned by the Stewart and Wylie Families. Berkeley Baron has to give weight to all but has a run under his belt while Lienosus' second behind Clondaw Kaempfer reads well enough. Johnny Og has been on the radar for a while now; although priced at 25/1 he's held in high regard by connections - it's interesting to see they've opted for this race rather than the opening maiden hurdle. Johnny Og would have been an each-way suggestion had eight (or more) faced the starter.
Finally, just in case it passed you by, earlier this week Sir Alex Ferguson's autobiography was published. Reviews suggest that racing fans hoping to gain an insight into events surrounding Ferguson's involvement with Rock Of Gibraltar will find the subject 'glossed over'. For those interested Martin Hannan's Rock Of Gibraltar (2004) is the recommended read.
Friday, October 18, 2013
Cheltenham choices
QIPCO Champions Day at Ascot will receive its fair share of attention tomorrow where the ground looks like riding on the soft side. Earlier this week Alan Lee penned an article in The Times predicting a signiifcant fall in the attendance figure for this showpiece event.
Naturally I'll be concentrating on the second day of Cheltenham's first meeting of the autumn.
The opening three mile novice hurdle looks intriguing with battle-hardened chasers Monbeg Dude (2012 Welsh National winner, rated 138 over fences), Hold On Julio (fifth behind Bobs Worth in the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup off a rating of 148) and Aeriel (sixth behind Al Ferof in the 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup off 155) all receiving weight from their opponents.
Of the younger brigade Kilbree Kid, Creepy, Kings Palace and Oscar Magic are amongst those who look to have a fitness edge. Kings Palace has potential but he appeared under pressure staying 22 furlongs at Fontwell last time while Martin Keighley likes Chepstow winner Creepy but foresees place prospects only. Kilbree Kid stays while Oscar Magic, ninth in the Champion bumper in March, tries the trip for the first time. The Twiston-Davies trained Oscar Magic gets no more than a tentative vote in a difficult contest.
Alan King saddles two winners from Chepstow last Saturday - Handazan (3.10) and Balder Succes (5.00).
Handazan won with something in hand (In The Crowd a distant fifth, Leo Luna declared a non-runner); last March Leo Luna beat Gassin Golf a head with the King horse a further nine lengths in arrears at Newbury. Samtegal is likely to prove a worthy opponent tomorrow having finshed third in the Triumph Hurdle behind runaway winner Our Conor.
Balder Succes jumped well on his chasing debut but I've lost count of the number of times I've supported a novice chaser on the back of one decent run only to have my fingers burned. Still, he won in a new course record last weekend so, despite the step back in trip, Balder Succes is marginally preferred to market rival Dark Lover who looks late in making this switch to fences.
Al Co, fifth behind Bouggler at Market Rasen last month, did the blog a favour at that Chepstow meeting so in the 3.45 I was half-tempted by his stablemate Kian's Delight, third in the same Market Rasen race. However he looks to have plenty on his plate here (no five or six year-old winner in the past ten years) and doesn't look guaranteed to stay. Balthazar King should go well if the rains stay away but in saying that I'm not really telling you anything you don't know already - I won't play.
In the concluding bumper I've a lot of time for another trained by Peter Bowen - Regal Diamond. He has to give weight to all his opponents but I might take a small each-way interest if he's priced in double figures.
Finally, don't miss the 4.25 at Kempton on Sunday when the 2012 Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby takes on the 2013 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner The New One.
Naturally I'll be concentrating on the second day of Cheltenham's first meeting of the autumn.
The opening three mile novice hurdle looks intriguing with battle-hardened chasers Monbeg Dude (2012 Welsh National winner, rated 138 over fences), Hold On Julio (fifth behind Bobs Worth in the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup off a rating of 148) and Aeriel (sixth behind Al Ferof in the 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup off 155) all receiving weight from their opponents.
Of the younger brigade Kilbree Kid, Creepy, Kings Palace and Oscar Magic are amongst those who look to have a fitness edge. Kings Palace has potential but he appeared under pressure staying 22 furlongs at Fontwell last time while Martin Keighley likes Chepstow winner Creepy but foresees place prospects only. Kilbree Kid stays while Oscar Magic, ninth in the Champion bumper in March, tries the trip for the first time. The Twiston-Davies trained Oscar Magic gets no more than a tentative vote in a difficult contest.
Alan King saddles two winners from Chepstow last Saturday - Handazan (3.10) and Balder Succes (5.00).
Handazan won with something in hand (In The Crowd a distant fifth, Leo Luna declared a non-runner); last March Leo Luna beat Gassin Golf a head with the King horse a further nine lengths in arrears at Newbury. Samtegal is likely to prove a worthy opponent tomorrow having finshed third in the Triumph Hurdle behind runaway winner Our Conor.
Balder Succes jumped well on his chasing debut but I've lost count of the number of times I've supported a novice chaser on the back of one decent run only to have my fingers burned. Still, he won in a new course record last weekend so, despite the step back in trip, Balder Succes is marginally preferred to market rival Dark Lover who looks late in making this switch to fences.
Al Co, fifth behind Bouggler at Market Rasen last month, did the blog a favour at that Chepstow meeting so in the 3.45 I was half-tempted by his stablemate Kian's Delight, third in the same Market Rasen race. However he looks to have plenty on his plate here (no five or six year-old winner in the past ten years) and doesn't look guaranteed to stay. Balthazar King should go well if the rains stay away but in saying that I'm not really telling you anything you don't know already - I won't play.
In the concluding bumper I've a lot of time for another trained by Peter Bowen - Regal Diamond. He has to give weight to all his opponents but I might take a small each-way interest if he's priced in double figures.
Finally, don't miss the 4.25 at Kempton on Sunday when the 2012 Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby takes on the 2013 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner The New One.
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