Cheltenham communications director Andy Clifton is 'very very confident' Festival Trials Day will go ahead tomorrow; a cracking card it is too with eight races which should give some clues for the battles ahead in March.
The Victor Chandler Chase (1.50), carried over from Ascot last Saturday, appeals as a spectacle rather than a betting medium and looks at the mercy of Sprinter Sacre.
The Argento Chase (2.25) on the other hand appears particularly trappy. Gold Cup favourite Bobs Worth isn't in the line-up after an unsatisfactory scope; Tidal Bay suffered a slight setback earlier in the week but looks set to start favourite instead. Grands Crus is interesting after a breathing operation and an improved display in the King George but has let supporters down at this venue before while previous Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander looks short enough in the market on his first run for 680 days. Hunt Ball disappointed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and, although better the next time behind Menorah, would probably prefer a slightly shorter trip. On ratings Quartz De Thaix has a bit to find with a couple in the field but Venetia Williams' charge has been in decent form this term and rates an each-way wager (18/1 Stan James) in an open event.
I was at Warwick a fortnight ago to see The New One win as he liked. Visually it was a most impressive performance although the main opponent that day, Dursey Sound, ran no race after a bad error at the seventh. I'll oppose with Coneygree in the Neptune (3.00).
The question in the Cleeve (3.35) is whether Oscar Whisky stays three miles. On his one attempt at the trip to date he finished a well-beaten fifth behind Big Buck's in last year's World Hurdle; connections are convinced that is not his true form. If you're unconvinced then you can't fail to be anything other than impressed by Reve De Sivola who put a high class field to the sword in Ascot's Long Walk Hurdle over three miles plus last month. The top two in the market have to give weight to the rest - of the pair I prefer Reve De Sivola at the prices - but I'm going out on a limb and having an each-way dabble on Crack Away Jack (16/1) who looks to have benefitted from the move to Tom George's yard. You couldn't be certain that he'd consent to put his best foot forward but his second behind Tidal Bay at Wetherby reads particularly well.
I don't intend to play in the two handicap chases but those looking for suggestions may want to consider Gullinbursti and Theatrical Star (12.40) who were both beaten by smart rivals at Exeter on New Year's Day while old favourite Fruity O'Rooney runs at 1.15.
The opener should prove useful for future reference (Kim Bailey wouldn't enter Milord just for the sake of it) while the finale has some interesting sorts including Lord Of House, His Excellency (rated eight pounds higher over fences), Solix (fifth in the 2011 running of the Coral Cup), Dildar and down at the bottom Thunder Sheik. Thunder Sheik looked one to watch out for after finishing second at Warwick last time; connections appeared particularly animated after that effort although the fact he runs from ten pounds out of the handicap here suggests they may just be tilting at windmills. 33/1 is on offer for those prepared to take the chance...
Friday, January 25, 2013
Friday, January 18, 2013
Snow patrol
Saturday's scheduled turf fixtures at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton have all been abandoned, as has Sunday's card at Towcester. The weather has certainly played its part this NH season - soft / heavy ground practically everywhere through autumn and now the snow has arrived.
You know, with the abandonment of Cheltenham on New Year's Day, Channel 4 Racing seems to have unwittingly kicked off the Festival Preview merry-go-round some six weeks early.
In last Saturday's Racing Post Carl Hicks, the man now at the helm of Channel 4's racing coverage, said: 'I'd give us seven out of ten so far.' I'm inclined to mark a little more harshly - as was often noted on my 'old school' school reports, IMG Sports Media 'needs to try harder'. In the Weekender the previous week Tom Segal said he thought Highflyer's offering was better; I agree - at the moment I'm struggling to give Carl and his team a six.
Still, with the weather the way it is and the Festival seven and a half weeks distant, it would seem churlish not to make at least one suggestion. Over the years the ante-post market for the Festival Bumper (last race on the Wednesday) has proved particularly volatile but Mick Channon's Sgt Reckless is of interest, although I admit I've missed the boat with his price now 16/1, having been 33s earlier in the week.
The handler nominated this one for the bumper at the Open meeting in November but the gelding missed that appointment on account of a pulled muscle. Since then he has given weight and a beating to a field on the all-weather at Lingfield in a time over five seconds faster than the corresponding division of the race run 30 minutes earlier.
Of course, it wouldn't be particularly diligent to read too much into times recorded in bumper races and I'm not particularly keen on ante-post wagers but if some of that previously-mentioned market volatility were to surface in the next week or two, I could be tempted into taking an interest.
In the meantime, with no prospect of turf racing for the foreseeable future, Snow Patrol suggest:
'Let's waste time
Chasing cars
Around our heads.'
[Snow Patrol, Chasing Cars]
You know, with the abandonment of Cheltenham on New Year's Day, Channel 4 Racing seems to have unwittingly kicked off the Festival Preview merry-go-round some six weeks early.
In last Saturday's Racing Post Carl Hicks, the man now at the helm of Channel 4's racing coverage, said: 'I'd give us seven out of ten so far.' I'm inclined to mark a little more harshly - as was often noted on my 'old school' school reports, IMG Sports Media 'needs to try harder'. In the Weekender the previous week Tom Segal said he thought Highflyer's offering was better; I agree - at the moment I'm struggling to give Carl and his team a six.
Still, with the weather the way it is and the Festival seven and a half weeks distant, it would seem churlish not to make at least one suggestion. Over the years the ante-post market for the Festival Bumper (last race on the Wednesday) has proved particularly volatile but Mick Channon's Sgt Reckless is of interest, although I admit I've missed the boat with his price now 16/1, having been 33s earlier in the week.
The handler nominated this one for the bumper at the Open meeting in November but the gelding missed that appointment on account of a pulled muscle. Since then he has given weight and a beating to a field on the all-weather at Lingfield in a time over five seconds faster than the corresponding division of the race run 30 minutes earlier.
Of course, it wouldn't be particularly diligent to read too much into times recorded in bumper races and I'm not particularly keen on ante-post wagers but if some of that previously-mentioned market volatility were to surface in the next week or two, I could be tempted into taking an interest.
In the meantime, with no prospect of turf racing for the foreseeable future, Snow Patrol suggest:
'Let's waste time
Chasing cars
Around our heads.'
[Snow Patrol, Chasing Cars]
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Brief notes from the course after Warwick's Classic Chase meet
Brief notes from Warwick's Classic Chase day meeting yesterday...
I've attended this particular meet several times over the years; whilst I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of crowds in the betting ring, around the paddock and in the bars, I'm guessing the track's management will view the attendance figures with some disappointment.
In the opener Timmy Murphy looked slightly unlucky not to win on his first ride back from injury when top weight Thunder Sheik (12/1) couldn't match Flaming Charmer (14/1) for toe after the last. I stood opposite the trainer and owners as the runner-up was unsaddled - Murphy was pretty animated and took what appeared an unusually long time to debrief connections. The first-time tongue-tie worn here appears to have helped and the hint was this bay is likely to appreciate further.
I didn't see Eastlake in the paddock beforehand but colleagues reported the gelding appeared sore behind. In the event he ran well but Rody quickly put the race to bed between the final two flights.
No sooner was Grand National winner Neptune Collonges brought into the paddock to parade before the third than he was spooked. The grey was clearly on good terms with himself - two handlers walked him around for a while after as he calmed down; several racegoers took the opportunity to take a picture. In the race itself 14/1 chance Tour Des Champs, running in the colours of Mr H R Mould (made famous by 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree), looked ready to mount a strong challenge to the principals when coming to grief two from home. Many will have been disappointed with Highland Lodge (third) but punters are forgiving beings - in the unsaddling enclosure I saw somebody pass two packets of polos to the lad as he walked the favourite around.
I wasn't inclined to play in the 2.25 with 18 runners and The Package priced up at around 3/1. The night before I had picked out Ely Brown (honest) but the Guinness called and I went and bought a round of drinks instead. We watched the action from a verandah outside the bar, standing just behind Countryfile presenter John Craven. Much to my dismay Ely Brown (12/1) won well but it appeared Mr Craven had been somewhat less reticent than my good self in striking a wager as the smiles and raised eyebrows came thick and fast after Ely passed the post in front. Displaying signs of excellent breeding, as one would expect, Mr Craven seemed in no particular rush to collect his winnings.
In the paddock The New One looked very strong behind but didn't catch the eye; he certainly caught the eye on the track.
Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne did his career prospects no harm whatsoever winning the feature on Rigadin De Beuachene. Something clearly upset the winner after the race - on a couple of occasions he looked ready to kick out - and the stable girl wisely took him away, missing the opportunity to collect her silver salver. Venetia Williams, a trainer in fine form as well as a lady who knows how to wear a hat, proved an able substitute.
The final word has to go to a bookmaker - the following sign was noted at Ka Be Ge's pitch:
"Remember, a bad day at the races is always better than a good day at work."
I've attended this particular meet several times over the years; whilst I was pleasantly surprised at the lack of crowds in the betting ring, around the paddock and in the bars, I'm guessing the track's management will view the attendance figures with some disappointment.
In the opener Timmy Murphy looked slightly unlucky not to win on his first ride back from injury when top weight Thunder Sheik (12/1) couldn't match Flaming Charmer (14/1) for toe after the last. I stood opposite the trainer and owners as the runner-up was unsaddled - Murphy was pretty animated and took what appeared an unusually long time to debrief connections. The first-time tongue-tie worn here appears to have helped and the hint was this bay is likely to appreciate further.
I didn't see Eastlake in the paddock beforehand but colleagues reported the gelding appeared sore behind. In the event he ran well but Rody quickly put the race to bed between the final two flights.
No sooner was Grand National winner Neptune Collonges brought into the paddock to parade before the third than he was spooked. The grey was clearly on good terms with himself - two handlers walked him around for a while after as he calmed down; several racegoers took the opportunity to take a picture. In the race itself 14/1 chance Tour Des Champs, running in the colours of Mr H R Mould (made famous by 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree), looked ready to mount a strong challenge to the principals when coming to grief two from home. Many will have been disappointed with Highland Lodge (third) but punters are forgiving beings - in the unsaddling enclosure I saw somebody pass two packets of polos to the lad as he walked the favourite around.
I wasn't inclined to play in the 2.25 with 18 runners and The Package priced up at around 3/1. The night before I had picked out Ely Brown (honest) but the Guinness called and I went and bought a round of drinks instead. We watched the action from a verandah outside the bar, standing just behind Countryfile presenter John Craven. Much to my dismay Ely Brown (12/1) won well but it appeared Mr Craven had been somewhat less reticent than my good self in striking a wager as the smiles and raised eyebrows came thick and fast after Ely passed the post in front. Displaying signs of excellent breeding, as one would expect, Mr Craven seemed in no particular rush to collect his winnings.
In the paddock The New One looked very strong behind but didn't catch the eye; he certainly caught the eye on the track.
Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne did his career prospects no harm whatsoever winning the feature on Rigadin De Beuachene. Something clearly upset the winner after the race - on a couple of occasions he looked ready to kick out - and the stable girl wisely took him away, missing the opportunity to collect her silver salver. Venetia Williams, a trainer in fine form as well as a lady who knows how to wear a hat, proved an able substitute.
The final word has to go to a bookmaker - the following sign was noted at Ka Be Ge's pitch:
"Remember, a bad day at the races is always better than a good day at work."
Friday, January 11, 2013
Warwick's Classic Chase day 2013
Last year Warwick racecourse lost a third of its fixtures due to heavy rain while the local district council rejected a plan to build a 100 bedroom hotel on site.
The question now being asked in some quarters is 'Can Warwick keep its racecourse?'
Tomorrow's meeting is the track's biggest jumps card of the year. I intend to pop along for old times' sake - you never know, future meetings could just become vulnerable...
The highlight is the Classic Chase run over three miles five furlongs - 13 face the starter at 3.35. Charlie Longsdon's Pete The Feat has won five on the bounce this season and bids to make it six off a mark of 134, nine pounds higher than when he made all to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury over Christmas; this evening layers offer 4/1. The locally-trained Restless Harry is bound to be popular and likely to race from the front but in my opinion he's better over the smaller obstacles (one win from four chase starts); the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and he may struggle with the jumping, a comment that could also apply to Bradley although his neck second to Monbeg Dude on his penultimate run reads well after that one won the Welsh National last weekend.
My tip for last week's Welsh National, Universal Soldier, ran like a drain - he reappears here seven days later but is hard to fancy while Rigadin De Beauchene is short enough in the market for a horse that didn't appear to stay three and a quarter miles at Fontwell in March.
Hey Big Spender won last year's renewal with 11 stones 12 off a mark of 156 - tomorrow's top weight Auroras Encore is rated 142 with all the runners set to carry their long handicap weight.
Two interest me - last year's fourth Major Malarkey and the bottom one Flying Award. Twiston-Davies won this in 2005 with Baron Windrush and his charge made a pleasing seasonal debut a neck behind Lively Baron in the London National at Sandown so I'll take an each-way interest in 10/1 chance Major Malarkey.
In the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) all eyes with be The New One. On course I'll try to get him beaten with Dursey Sound who has one pound to find on official ratings but I wouldn't be confident. In the last six renewals the favourite has obliged on four occasions.
Highland Lodge disappointed in the Leamington Hurdle at the track last year so Rocky Creek is marginally prefered in the novice chase. Having said that, I'm often wary of betting Paul Nicholls' runners in January as in the past the yard has tended to give the majority of their horses a flu jab at the beginning of the month.
I had to look twice to make sure the Pertemps Hurdle (2.25) wasn't some kind of Grand National trial with West End Rocker, Sunnyhillboy and The Package declared. The two mile handicap chase for the Edward Courage Cup (1.15) looks trappy but I'm going to chance George Nympton who won over course and distance last time out.
The question now being asked in some quarters is 'Can Warwick keep its racecourse?'
Tomorrow's meeting is the track's biggest jumps card of the year. I intend to pop along for old times' sake - you never know, future meetings could just become vulnerable...
The highlight is the Classic Chase run over three miles five furlongs - 13 face the starter at 3.35. Charlie Longsdon's Pete The Feat has won five on the bounce this season and bids to make it six off a mark of 134, nine pounds higher than when he made all to win the Mandarin Chase at Newbury over Christmas; this evening layers offer 4/1. The locally-trained Restless Harry is bound to be popular and likely to race from the front but in my opinion he's better over the smaller obstacles (one win from four chase starts); the fences come thick and fast down the back straight and he may struggle with the jumping, a comment that could also apply to Bradley although his neck second to Monbeg Dude on his penultimate run reads well after that one won the Welsh National last weekend.
My tip for last week's Welsh National, Universal Soldier, ran like a drain - he reappears here seven days later but is hard to fancy while Rigadin De Beauchene is short enough in the market for a horse that didn't appear to stay three and a quarter miles at Fontwell in March.
Hey Big Spender won last year's renewal with 11 stones 12 off a mark of 156 - tomorrow's top weight Auroras Encore is rated 142 with all the runners set to carry their long handicap weight.
Two interest me - last year's fourth Major Malarkey and the bottom one Flying Award. Twiston-Davies won this in 2005 with Baron Windrush and his charge made a pleasing seasonal debut a neck behind Lively Baron in the London National at Sandown so I'll take an each-way interest in 10/1 chance Major Malarkey.
In the Leamington Novices' Hurdle (3.00) all eyes with be The New One. On course I'll try to get him beaten with Dursey Sound who has one pound to find on official ratings but I wouldn't be confident. In the last six renewals the favourite has obliged on four occasions.
Highland Lodge disappointed in the Leamington Hurdle at the track last year so Rocky Creek is marginally prefered in the novice chase. Having said that, I'm often wary of betting Paul Nicholls' runners in January as in the past the yard has tended to give the majority of their horses a flu jab at the beginning of the month.
I had to look twice to make sure the Pertemps Hurdle (2.25) wasn't some kind of Grand National trial with West End Rocker, Sunnyhillboy and The Package declared. The two mile handicap chase for the Edward Courage Cup (1.15) looks trappy but I'm going to chance George Nympton who won over course and distance last time out.
Friday, January 04, 2013
The Welsh Grand National, Clare Balding, Mr Little's Noisy Car and the Tolworth...
Originally Clare Balding was rostered to cover the Welsh National at Chepstow for the BBC so there's a certain irony in the fact that, due to mitigating circumstances, nine days on she fronts this year's renewal for her new employers at Channel 4.
Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.
Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.
It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...
18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.
Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.
The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.
The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.
I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.
Channel 4's brand new racing coverage didn't get off to the most auspicious of starts on new year's day. Cheltenham was called off so Balding gave us a whirlwind tour of Nicky Henderson's stable instead; a couple of races from Musselburgh were thrown in for the sheer hell of it while Nick Luck, Jim McGrath, Graham Cunningham and Tanya Stevenson spent a sizeable chunk of the airtime available impersonating a job interview panel.
Their appearance brought to mind a previous occasion when one such panel enquired of me 'What was the last work of fiction you read and what do you remember most about it?' I replied 'Mr. Little's Noisy Car. The thing I remember most was Mr. Little finding a tiger in the boot of the car.' The kids were quite small at the time; I didn't get the job.
It's early days for Channel 4's new team and I don't want to appear too judgmental. Mrs Tips, never one to keep quiet for no reason whatsoever, tells me the jury is out...
18 have been declared for the Chepstow feature tomorrow but the picture is complicated somewhat by the fact that both Across The Bay and Alfie Spinner have also been declared for the 3.40 at Sandown. The perceived wisdom is Across The Bay runs at Chepstow while my Welsh National fancy, Alfie Spinner, is heading to Sandown. Gutted.
Teaforthree has an obvious chance with underfoot conditions sure to suit; this has been the target all season. He's tipped up everywhere - the layers appear to be taking the name literally as several offer no more than a rather miserly-looking 3/1. I share John Francome's view on Michel Le Bon - the horse just doesn't jump anywhere near well enough.
The last winner older than nine was Riverside Boy back in 1993, a stat that knocks out half the field. I've looked for something with course form that's aged under ten and with less than 11 stone to carry - Charlie Longsdon's Universal Soldier fits the bill. This one finished just over 13 lengths behind Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham in March and is now six pounds better off; the first-time blinkers are a cause for slight concern. I'll take a small each-way interest in Universal Soldier at 10/1.
The Tolworth at Sandown (2.25) looks most intriguing with layers offering 7/2 each of three this evening. Geraghty rides Royal Boy rather than course and distance winner Golden Hoof; the latter-named boasts the same official rating as Melodic Rendezvous (135) who had Royal Boy threequarters of a length behind at Cheltenham three weeks ago. That was Royal Boy's first run for nearly two years and connections will fancy their chance of turning the form around. Clive Cox's Poet, a winner of Group Three races on the Flat, jumped like an old-hand on his first try over hurdles at Newbury 17 days ago; an article in yesterday's Times indicated John Francome has done much of the work with this one with the Champion Hurdle the target if things go to plan here. Of the principals, I have to oppose both Poet (on account of age - eight) and Melodic Rendezvous (his handler was decidely downbeat about his charge's chance on heavy ground before the Cheltenham race.) Court Minstrel is not lightly dismissed and appeared a little unlucky in running when bumped and hampered after the last behind Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham - Henderson has a benchmark in River Maigue, second that day and a winner since. Royal Boy gets the nod; whatever happens, the race will prove useful for future reference.
I won't play in the finale at Sandown. I suspect Team Tizzard are giving Hey Big Spender a runout before another crack at Warwick's Classic Chase (next weekend) while at the time of writing my former Welsh National fancy Alfie Spinner is priced up favourite. Triolo D'Alene has had a breathing operation and could come on for his seasonal debut but to date hasn't proved he stays this trip. Fruity O'Rooney definitely does stay the trip and could well make a bold bid (seventh in Hennessy) but in the past has tended to jump out left when racing on right-handed tracks.
Monday, December 31, 2012
New Year's Eve
2012 is likely to go down as the wettest year on record and 2013 starts in much the same vein as Cheltenham's New Year's Day card has already been abandoned on account of a waterlogged track.
Channel 4's new-look racing team, headed up by Clare Balding, will now start their coverage with live action from Musselburgh where the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.
In a piece in The Times trainer Nicky Henderson has told Alan Lee '...he will be reluctant to run several of his key Festival hopes again on heavy ground before the meeting in March.'
With the weather having had a key impact on the NH season so far, as an end-of-year exercise I've drawn up a brief list of horses I'd expect to see improvement from on better ground...
Rock On Ruby
Cinders And Ashes
Hunt Ball
Captain Chris
and finally the appropriately-named
New Year's Eve
The horse of 2012 has to be the extraordinary Frankel (spelt Frankle in a caption in today's Times!) who won 14 races and £2,998,302 in prize money.
I wish readers all the very best for 2013.
Channel 4's new-look racing team, headed up by Clare Balding, will now start their coverage with live action from Musselburgh where the going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places.
In a piece in The Times trainer Nicky Henderson has told Alan Lee '...he will be reluctant to run several of his key Festival hopes again on heavy ground before the meeting in March.'
With the weather having had a key impact on the NH season so far, as an end-of-year exercise I've drawn up a brief list of horses I'd expect to see improvement from on better ground...
Rock On Ruby
Cinders And Ashes
Hunt Ball
Captain Chris
and finally the appropriately-named
New Year's Eve
The horse of 2012 has to be the extraordinary Frankel (spelt Frankle in a caption in today's Times!) who won 14 races and £2,998,302 in prize money.
I wish readers all the very best for 2013.
Friday, December 28, 2012
A chance in the Challow
Quick post on Newbury's card tomorrow where the feature Challow Hurdle is due off at 2.45, provided the rains stay away, of course.
Six declared with the two four-year-olds in the field, Donald McCain's Clondaw Kaempfer and Paul Nicholls' Easter Day, joint top-rated on 140. Jonjo O'Neill's three entries in this race over the past decade have all obliged - Coolnagorna (4/6f in 2002), Wichita Lineman (11/4 in 2006) and Backspin (5/1 in 2010); this year he saddles Taquin Du Seuil who has won two of his three outings this term, the defeat coming behind My Tent Or Yours (goes in the finale at 3.50) at the beginning of November.
Since 2002 four-year-olds have taken just two renewals (Souffleur in 2007 and Reve De Sivola in 2009); favourites have won five runnings. Taquin Du Seuil is the selection.
Cue Card won last year's running of the 1.35 - Tenor Nivernais represents a play against likely favourite Colour Squadron who has his first run over fences on this his seasonal bow.
In the finale Fix It Right ran well for a long way behind The Italian Yob at Exeter earlier in the month and looks to hold place prospects on this more forgiving track.
Six declared with the two four-year-olds in the field, Donald McCain's Clondaw Kaempfer and Paul Nicholls' Easter Day, joint top-rated on 140. Jonjo O'Neill's three entries in this race over the past decade have all obliged - Coolnagorna (4/6f in 2002), Wichita Lineman (11/4 in 2006) and Backspin (5/1 in 2010); this year he saddles Taquin Du Seuil who has won two of his three outings this term, the defeat coming behind My Tent Or Yours (goes in the finale at 3.50) at the beginning of November.
Since 2002 four-year-olds have taken just two renewals (Souffleur in 2007 and Reve De Sivola in 2009); favourites have won five runnings. Taquin Du Seuil is the selection.
Cue Card won last year's running of the 1.35 - Tenor Nivernais represents a play against likely favourite Colour Squadron who has his first run over fences on this his seasonal bow.
In the finale Fix It Right ran well for a long way behind The Italian Yob at Exeter earlier in the month and looks to hold place prospects on this more forgiving track.
Monday, December 24, 2012
Boxing Day at Kempton 2012
Looking back at previous posts penned at this time of year, I couldn't help but think 2009's offering, entitled ' Rescue required', still hits the nail on the head...
The persistent rain is likely to affect several cards (Huntingdon already lost) but, all being well, Kempton's traditional Boxing Day card will go ahead as planned where the King George VI Chase is the feature. Ten declared for what looks sure to be an intriguing renewal.
Last year Kauto Star beat Long Run one and a quarter lengths (Captain Chris a further 17 lengths behind third). Kauto was scheduled to parade before this year's renewal and, as far as I'm aware, the rather public tiff between owner Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls shouldn't affect that arrangement; whatever, the great horse won't be running in the race itself and Long Run is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson's stable star was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase at Haydock four and a half weeks ago; after that run connections hinted they may change tactics - I'm expecting to see Long Run ridden more prominently.
I'm sure we've heard racing people say that if any horse is ever going to get a three mile trip, he'll get it at Kempton (or Ludlow even) - Cue Card and Riverside Theatre, second and third in the market, have never won over the distance which is a concern, although the trainer of the former, writing in the Weekender, thinks his charge will ('... and in his current form is a major player') while the latter, owned by the Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership, has been aimed specifically at this race.
Nicholls relies on Kauto's half-brother Kauto Stone this year; the lack of big-race experience may worry some but it's worth noting four six-year-olds have taken this in the past twenty years, three in the past decade - Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006) and Long Run (2010).
Grands Crus took last year's Feltham over course and distance but it's difficult to be confident here after his disappointing run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Tom Scudamore appears to prefer this one to The Giant Bolster. McCoy rides David Bridgwater's Gold Cup second who, in my opinion, is still a little underrated.
I think Philip Hobbs could have Captain Chris in better form than last year - I would have considered an each-way wager had the ground been better - but, with the rain around, The Giant Bolster is the each-way selection at 10/1 or bigger. The worry is all his chase runs have been on left-handed tracks.
Countrywide Flame is as tough as old boots and did this blog a favour winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; visually that was most impressive. Connections offered the ground as the reason behind Cinders And Ashes' disappoinitng defeat that day - the stable are in better form now (four wins from nine runners in past week). I'm loathe to desert Countrywide Flame but a four-year-old hasn't won this since Kerawi (1997) so course and distance winner Darlan offers slightly better value and is the tentative selection in a trappy-looking affair.
Dynaste looks the one to beat in the Feltham but he'll be no price.
Have yourselves a happy little Christmas!
Postscript (added 24.12.12 21:00): Of course, as Tom Scudamore is retained by David Pipe, he has never been in a position where he has had to choose between Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. Writing in today's Times, Scudamore says 'I am hoping that a recent breathing operation has restored his [Grands Crus'] powers.'
The persistent rain is likely to affect several cards (Huntingdon already lost) but, all being well, Kempton's traditional Boxing Day card will go ahead as planned where the King George VI Chase is the feature. Ten declared for what looks sure to be an intriguing renewal.
Last year Kauto Star beat Long Run one and a quarter lengths (Captain Chris a further 17 lengths behind third). Kauto was scheduled to parade before this year's renewal and, as far as I'm aware, the rather public tiff between owner Clive Smith and Paul Nicholls shouldn't affect that arrangement; whatever, the great horse won't be running in the race itself and Long Run is priced up favourite. Nicky Henderson's stable star was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal debut in the Betfair Chase at Haydock four and a half weeks ago; after that run connections hinted they may change tactics - I'm expecting to see Long Run ridden more prominently.
I'm sure we've heard racing people say that if any horse is ever going to get a three mile trip, he'll get it at Kempton (or Ludlow even) - Cue Card and Riverside Theatre, second and third in the market, have never won over the distance which is a concern, although the trainer of the former, writing in the Weekender, thinks his charge will ('... and in his current form is a major player') while the latter, owned by the Jimmy Nesbitt Partnership, has been aimed specifically at this race.
Nicholls relies on Kauto's half-brother Kauto Stone this year; the lack of big-race experience may worry some but it's worth noting four six-year-olds have taken this in the past twenty years, three in the past decade - Kicking King (2004), Kauto Star (2006) and Long Run (2010).
Grands Crus took last year's Feltham over course and distance but it's difficult to be confident here after his disappointing run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup; Tom Scudamore appears to prefer this one to The Giant Bolster. McCoy rides David Bridgwater's Gold Cup second who, in my opinion, is still a little underrated.
I think Philip Hobbs could have Captain Chris in better form than last year - I would have considered an each-way wager had the ground been better - but, with the rain around, The Giant Bolster is the each-way selection at 10/1 or bigger. The worry is all his chase runs have been on left-handed tracks.
Countrywide Flame is as tough as old boots and did this blog a favour winning the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; visually that was most impressive. Connections offered the ground as the reason behind Cinders And Ashes' disappoinitng defeat that day - the stable are in better form now (four wins from nine runners in past week). I'm loathe to desert Countrywide Flame but a four-year-old hasn't won this since Kerawi (1997) so course and distance winner Darlan offers slightly better value and is the tentative selection in a trappy-looking affair.
Dynaste looks the one to beat in the Feltham but he'll be no price.
Have yourselves a happy little Christmas!
Postscript (added 24.12.12 21:00): Of course, as Tom Scudamore is retained by David Pipe, he has never been in a position where he has had to choose between Grands Crus and The Giant Bolster. Writing in today's Times, Scudamore says 'I am hoping that a recent breathing operation has restored his [Grands Crus'] powers.'
Friday, December 21, 2012
Ascot Long Walk Hurdle
Busted for time this evening after Christmas beverages (hic)...
With Big Buck's out for the remainder of the season, the Long Walk has the look of an open contest. I'm not convinced favourite Smad Place will stay the trip (particularly on heavy ground) so Trustan Times is the selection whilst Cucumber Run (14/1) appeals as the each-way wager provided eight make it to the start.
Happy Christmas everyone!
With Big Buck's out for the remainder of the season, the Long Walk has the look of an open contest. I'm not convinced favourite Smad Place will stay the trip (particularly on heavy ground) so Trustan Times is the selection whilst Cucumber Run (14/1) appeals as the each-way wager provided eight make it to the start.
Happy Christmas everyone!
Friday, December 14, 2012
Cheltenham before Christmas
Christmas just around the corner but we've witnessed a distinct lack of Christmas spirit between trainer Paul Nicholls and owner Clive Smith in what The Times dubbed the 'Kauto Star wars' earlier this week. Smith's decision to pursue a career in dressage with Kauto has clearly upset those at Ditcheat. Thursday's Daily Mail painted a graphic picture of the extent to which this relationship had broken down when Smith took Nicholls to task over his pronunciation of the horse's name; after all those glory days, it really is sad to see the partnership end this way but, as in most sports, money talks and we should never forget it's an owner's prerogative to do as he (or she) wishes as the owner is the one who pays the bills.
Tomorrow's feature at Prestbury Park, the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, will be run on testing ground. At the time of writing several layers have Walkon and Unioniste 9/2 joint favourites with Cristal Bonus a 6/1 chance; in the past decade just one favourite has obliged while all winners have been aged between six and eight years old in the same timeframe, sats which don't bode well for Unioniste. Walkon has an obvious chance on his three lengths second to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup run at this track over a similar distance and on similar ground four weeks ago (Nadiya De La Vega third, Quantitativeasing and Micheal Flips both pulled up). Alan King's charge looks the percentage call but in the past I've never found the grey easy to catch right and have had my fingers burnt on a couple of occasions. I'll give Walkon another chance.
The conditions of the International Hurdle (3.05) favour Zarkander and Paul Nicholls' five-year-old has the benefit of a run under his belt; he's priced up favourite. The last reigning champion to take this was Comedy Of Errors in 1973 but I'm tempted to chance Rock On Ruby who has won after the summer break in the past two seasons. Harry Fry was not a name known to many when the gelding took the crown last March - at that time Mr Fry was in charge of Nicholls' satellite yard and my guess is both the trainer and jockey Noel Fehily will be pretty keen to show that was no fluke. This evening Labrokes, Paddy Power and Stan James all offer 9/4 - sponsor Stan James also offers a free £10 bet if you bet £10 on this race. Rock On Ruby is the selection.
Our Father went into many notebooks last time and is declared for the novice chase at 12.45. Court In Motion, his main opponent, has the 1.45 at Lingfield as the preferred engagement; the ground for that Lingfield race is described as heavy. Court In Motion has never won over three miles whereas the trip and ground should suit Houblon Des Obeaux and Venetia Williams had a double today with Tenor Nivernais (7/1 Bangor 12.00) and Plein Pouvoir (12/1 Cheltenham 12.45).
If I remember correctly the Relkeel (3.40) has struggled for entries in the past and just three for tomorrow's renewal does not look good.
Tomorrow's feature at Prestbury Park, the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, will be run on testing ground. At the time of writing several layers have Walkon and Unioniste 9/2 joint favourites with Cristal Bonus a 6/1 chance; in the past decade just one favourite has obliged while all winners have been aged between six and eight years old in the same timeframe, sats which don't bode well for Unioniste. Walkon has an obvious chance on his three lengths second to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup run at this track over a similar distance and on similar ground four weeks ago (Nadiya De La Vega third, Quantitativeasing and Micheal Flips both pulled up). Alan King's charge looks the percentage call but in the past I've never found the grey easy to catch right and have had my fingers burnt on a couple of occasions. I'll give Walkon another chance.
The conditions of the International Hurdle (3.05) favour Zarkander and Paul Nicholls' five-year-old has the benefit of a run under his belt; he's priced up favourite. The last reigning champion to take this was Comedy Of Errors in 1973 but I'm tempted to chance Rock On Ruby who has won after the summer break in the past two seasons. Harry Fry was not a name known to many when the gelding took the crown last March - at that time Mr Fry was in charge of Nicholls' satellite yard and my guess is both the trainer and jockey Noel Fehily will be pretty keen to show that was no fluke. This evening Labrokes, Paddy Power and Stan James all offer 9/4 - sponsor Stan James also offers a free £10 bet if you bet £10 on this race. Rock On Ruby is the selection.
Our Father went into many notebooks last time and is declared for the novice chase at 12.45. Court In Motion, his main opponent, has the 1.45 at Lingfield as the preferred engagement; the ground for that Lingfield race is described as heavy. Court In Motion has never won over three miles whereas the trip and ground should suit Houblon Des Obeaux and Venetia Williams had a double today with Tenor Nivernais (7/1 Bangor 12.00) and Plein Pouvoir (12/1 Cheltenham 12.45).
If I remember correctly the Relkeel (3.40) has struggled for entries in the past and just three for tomorrow's renewal does not look good.
Friday, December 07, 2012
From Sandown to Aintree and back
Tomorrow's Tingle Creek has been billed a match between Sprinter Sacre and Sandown specialist Sanctuaire; that's about the long and short of it and at the prices on offer I'm not tempted to play. Trying to pick holes in the form looks something of a futile exercise. I note that both race keenly and like to get on with it (as, indeed, does Kumbeshwar and Doeslessthanme) which on this testing ground could, in theory, lead to the race being set up for something to come from behind - you can have 40/1 His Excellency if you like - but the stats suggest there's no real value to be had as six favourites have obliged in the past decade with 2002 winner Cenkos (6/1) returned at the biggest price during that timeframe.
Underfoot conditions appear to have frightened off a number of the interesting five day entries on the rest of Sandown's card (Overturn, My Tent Or Yours, New Year's Eve, Cotton Mill) so I've decided to take a look at Aintree's Becher Chase run over the National fences where the going is currently described as heavy.
I tipped West End Rocker at 14/1 to win the race last year and, unusually for one of my selections, he came home in something of a common canter. On the back of that performance, I tipped the same horse for the National in April but he got no further than the second. A fortnight later connections brought him out for what was supposedly some compensation in the Betfred Gold Cup (at Sandown) but the gelding ran an absolute stinker out the back, eventually being pulled up. At the time trainer Alan King made comments about the horse having had a bad experience at Aintree and not liking the fences there which I thought odd given the same beast had won the Becher. Much later the handler put it down to the brouhaha of the occasion but I'm wary; on top of that tomorrow's pilot, Choc Thornton, has never won on the horse.
Martin Keighley's Any Currency was my fancy for the finale at Sandown until I realised the Becher was the target! This one failed to make the cut for the National in April but stayed on into third behind Tidal Bay in the Betfred Gold Cup after losing his position mid-race. He comes here with two runs under his belt but in an interview connections appeared ambivalent as to whether their charge would take to the obstacles; if he does, next year's National definitely will be on his agenda.
Nine of the past ten winners have been aged eight or older which puts me off Join Together, Problema Tic and bottom one Ballyvesey.
For this I do tend to prefer one with form over these fences; of the market leaders Big Fella Thanks makes most appeal to this observer - his record in the National reads sixth in 2009; fourth in 2010; seventh in 2011. Now with Tom George, the horse blundered and unseated Paddy Brennan last time out but is forgiven that particular lapse. At an each-way price I was very tempted by Any Currency (12/1) but marginally prefer another lightweight in the shape of Kim Bailey's Midnight Haze who finished a very distant 15th behind Neptune Collonges in the National; he's priced up at 25/1 with Coral this evening.
Two selections against the field - Big Fella Thanks (7/1 generally) and Midnight Haze each-way (25/1 Coral).
Finally, I have to return to the finale at Sandown, the London (rather than Aintree) National. If they do race at Aintree, just five will face the starter at Sandown where the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Tempo De Cotte is worth opposing on the back of his disappointing fourth at Plumpton last time - his first run in this country. Golan Way is a law to himself (refused to race on his seasonal debut last year) but if in the mood could easily win - trainer Sheena West saddled 7/1 chance Captain Cardington to take the opener at the course today - but the Trevor Hemmings owned Lively Baron carries just ten stone five and with Dickie Johnson in the plate is the selection.
Underfoot conditions appear to have frightened off a number of the interesting five day entries on the rest of Sandown's card (Overturn, My Tent Or Yours, New Year's Eve, Cotton Mill) so I've decided to take a look at Aintree's Becher Chase run over the National fences where the going is currently described as heavy.
I tipped West End Rocker at 14/1 to win the race last year and, unusually for one of my selections, he came home in something of a common canter. On the back of that performance, I tipped the same horse for the National in April but he got no further than the second. A fortnight later connections brought him out for what was supposedly some compensation in the Betfred Gold Cup (at Sandown) but the gelding ran an absolute stinker out the back, eventually being pulled up. At the time trainer Alan King made comments about the horse having had a bad experience at Aintree and not liking the fences there which I thought odd given the same beast had won the Becher. Much later the handler put it down to the brouhaha of the occasion but I'm wary; on top of that tomorrow's pilot, Choc Thornton, has never won on the horse.
Martin Keighley's Any Currency was my fancy for the finale at Sandown until I realised the Becher was the target! This one failed to make the cut for the National in April but stayed on into third behind Tidal Bay in the Betfred Gold Cup after losing his position mid-race. He comes here with two runs under his belt but in an interview connections appeared ambivalent as to whether their charge would take to the obstacles; if he does, next year's National definitely will be on his agenda.
Nine of the past ten winners have been aged eight or older which puts me off Join Together, Problema Tic and bottom one Ballyvesey.
For this I do tend to prefer one with form over these fences; of the market leaders Big Fella Thanks makes most appeal to this observer - his record in the National reads sixth in 2009; fourth in 2010; seventh in 2011. Now with Tom George, the horse blundered and unseated Paddy Brennan last time out but is forgiven that particular lapse. At an each-way price I was very tempted by Any Currency (12/1) but marginally prefer another lightweight in the shape of Kim Bailey's Midnight Haze who finished a very distant 15th behind Neptune Collonges in the National; he's priced up at 25/1 with Coral this evening.
Two selections against the field - Big Fella Thanks (7/1 generally) and Midnight Haze each-way (25/1 Coral).
Finally, I have to return to the finale at Sandown, the London (rather than Aintree) National. If they do race at Aintree, just five will face the starter at Sandown where the Paul Nicholls trained favourite Tempo De Cotte is worth opposing on the back of his disappointing fourth at Plumpton last time - his first run in this country. Golan Way is a law to himself (refused to race on his seasonal debut last year) but if in the mood could easily win - trainer Sheena West saddled 7/1 chance Captain Cardington to take the opener at the course today - but the Trevor Hemmings owned Lively Baron carries just ten stone five and with Dickie Johnson in the plate is the selection.
Tuesday, December 04, 2012
Race reading this Christmas
If the thought of Christmas with the family fills you with horror, perhaps some of the following tomes might help to ease the pain...
Frankel: The Wonder Horse Racing Post and Andrew Pennington
Kauto Star: A Steeplechasing Legend Andrew Pennington
Black Caviar: The Horse Of A Lifetime Gerard Whateley
Racing Crazy: The Best Of David Ashforth David Ashforth
The Secrets Of Pricewise James Milton
Once we have all read and inwardly digested this work, I presume Pricewise will have no secrets remaining and as a result will be left looking for work...
When Racing Was Racing: A Century On The Turf Adam Powley
Something of a trip down memory lane for miserable old buffers such as myself...
Lord Derby And His Horses: A Tory Grandee And The Turf Quintin Barry
Britain And Ireland's Top 100 Racehorses Of All Time Robin Oakley
Panned in no uncertain terms by one 'Stoker Devonshire' in the Spectator (Oct 27 2012) - his review concludes with the quote: 'This is a lazy little book...' Private Eye (No. 1326, 2-15 November 2012, p28) points out this is worrying as Oakley is the Spectator's racing correspondent, going on to suggest 'Stoker' is in fact his Grace the Duke who may just have half an eye on Oakley's job...
My Animals And Other Family Clare Balding
Ms Balding's surprisingly self-deprecating look at her early years; somehow, Clare's 'old school' grandma manages to steal the show...
And finally...
Fifty Sheds Of Grey: A Parody: Erotica For The Not-Too-Modern Male C.T.Grey
Frankel: The Wonder Horse Racing Post and Andrew Pennington
Kauto Star: A Steeplechasing Legend Andrew Pennington
Black Caviar: The Horse Of A Lifetime Gerard Whateley
Racing Crazy: The Best Of David Ashforth David Ashforth
The Secrets Of Pricewise James Milton
Once we have all read and inwardly digested this work, I presume Pricewise will have no secrets remaining and as a result will be left looking for work...
When Racing Was Racing: A Century On The Turf Adam Powley
Something of a trip down memory lane for miserable old buffers such as myself...
Lord Derby And His Horses: A Tory Grandee And The Turf Quintin Barry
Britain And Ireland's Top 100 Racehorses Of All Time Robin Oakley
Panned in no uncertain terms by one 'Stoker Devonshire' in the Spectator (Oct 27 2012) - his review concludes with the quote: 'This is a lazy little book...' Private Eye (No. 1326, 2-15 November 2012, p28) points out this is worrying as Oakley is the Spectator's racing correspondent, going on to suggest 'Stoker' is in fact his Grace the Duke who may just have half an eye on Oakley's job...
My Animals And Other Family Clare Balding
Ms Balding's surprisingly self-deprecating look at her early years; somehow, Clare's 'old school' grandma manages to steal the show...
And finally...
Fifty Sheds Of Grey: A Parody: Erotica For The Not-Too-Modern Male C.T.Grey
Friday, November 30, 2012
The Hennessy Gold Cup and The Fighting Fifth 2012
Like many, I tend to prefer a young up-and-coming chaser for the Hennessy; the race was switched from Cheltenham to Newbury in 1960 - the number of times the variously aged horses have won is shown below:
6 year old: 7
7 year old: 21
8 year old: 11
9 year old: 10
10 year old: 2
11 year old: 1
Horses aged seven to nine have won 42 of the 52 runnings, while seven-year-olds boast a 40.38% strike rate in that period.
This year's renewal looks as competitive as ever with Nicky Henderson's RSA winner Bobs Worth priced up favourite at around the 7/2 mark. Alan King, who had a notable winner with Bless The Wings earlier today, tells us in the Weekender Hold On Julio '...is unquestionably the best chance I have had of landing the famous race', while The Package comes here in fine heart having taken Wincanton's Badger Ales Trophy three weeks ago but regular pilot Timmy Murphy may miss the ride after falling from Leeroar in Newbury's finale this afternoon.
I tipped Carruthers to win the Hennessy last year; this year the trainer has been pretty bullish about his charge (despite a couple of below par efforts) although the horse would not want the ground to dry out too much and become sticky. Carruthers is certainly a big price and will stay the trip but I'm going to desert him for the 2011 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner First Lieutenant. Irish trained runners have an abysmal record in the race but this one was beaten just two and a half lengths by Bobs Worth in the RSA last March; he's in receipt of one pound from that rival now and already has two runs under his belt, last time finishing a length behind Kauto Stone in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. At 10/1 he represents reasonable each-way value, although I'm not convinced the final two and a half furlongs are exactly what he needs.
Those looking for a lightweight at a price could do worse than consider the form of Alfie Spinner (18/1 Sky Bet) when finishing two and three quarter lengths behind Bobs Worth, both beaten by Invictus at Ascot in February; Invictus was to be my selection for the RSA in March but he picked up an injury and never made the race...
In a nutshell, two each-way chances against the field - First Lieutenant (10/1) and Alfie Spinner (18/1).
There's an eight o'clock inspection up at Newcastle tomorrow morning; if the meeting gets the go-ahead there will be just four runners in the Fighting Fifth. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes races off 151 and is priced up odds on this evening while Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame, rated 152, is on offer at 4/1 with several layers. No four-year-old has won this in the past decade but John Quinn's charge comes here fit from the Flat (he was second in Cesarewitch) and may handle the ground better than the favourite. The McCain operation has had a couple of winners of late but certainly hasn't been firing on all cylinders and the handler hints his charge will come on for the run. Obviously a tactical affair is the danger with such a small field - I just wonder whether Denis O'Regan may try to race from the front on Countrywide Flame. At 4/1 Countrywide Flame represents a value play against Cinders And Ashes.
6 year old: 7
7 year old: 21
8 year old: 11
9 year old: 10
10 year old: 2
11 year old: 1
Horses aged seven to nine have won 42 of the 52 runnings, while seven-year-olds boast a 40.38% strike rate in that period.
This year's renewal looks as competitive as ever with Nicky Henderson's RSA winner Bobs Worth priced up favourite at around the 7/2 mark. Alan King, who had a notable winner with Bless The Wings earlier today, tells us in the Weekender Hold On Julio '...is unquestionably the best chance I have had of landing the famous race', while The Package comes here in fine heart having taken Wincanton's Badger Ales Trophy three weeks ago but regular pilot Timmy Murphy may miss the ride after falling from Leeroar in Newbury's finale this afternoon.
I tipped Carruthers to win the Hennessy last year; this year the trainer has been pretty bullish about his charge (despite a couple of below par efforts) although the horse would not want the ground to dry out too much and become sticky. Carruthers is certainly a big price and will stay the trip but I'm going to desert him for the 2011 Neptune Novices' Hurdle winner First Lieutenant. Irish trained runners have an abysmal record in the race but this one was beaten just two and a half lengths by Bobs Worth in the RSA last March; he's in receipt of one pound from that rival now and already has two runs under his belt, last time finishing a length behind Kauto Stone in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. At 10/1 he represents reasonable each-way value, although I'm not convinced the final two and a half furlongs are exactly what he needs.
Those looking for a lightweight at a price could do worse than consider the form of Alfie Spinner (18/1 Sky Bet) when finishing two and three quarter lengths behind Bobs Worth, both beaten by Invictus at Ascot in February; Invictus was to be my selection for the RSA in March but he picked up an injury and never made the race...
In a nutshell, two each-way chances against the field - First Lieutenant (10/1) and Alfie Spinner (18/1).
There's an eight o'clock inspection up at Newcastle tomorrow morning; if the meeting gets the go-ahead there will be just four runners in the Fighting Fifth. Donald McCain's Cinders And Ashes races off 151 and is priced up odds on this evening while Triumph Hurdle winner Countrywide Flame, rated 152, is on offer at 4/1 with several layers. No four-year-old has won this in the past decade but John Quinn's charge comes here fit from the Flat (he was second in Cesarewitch) and may handle the ground better than the favourite. The McCain operation has had a couple of winners of late but certainly hasn't been firing on all cylinders and the handler hints his charge will come on for the run. Obviously a tactical affair is the danger with such a small field - I just wonder whether Denis O'Regan may try to race from the front on Countrywide Flame. At 4/1 Countrywide Flame represents a value play against Cinders And Ashes.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Two for Haydock and two for Ascot this Sautrday
Tomorrow's weather forecast does not look promising; the likelihood is more rain will fall at both Ascot and Haydock. Two handlers dominated the entries at those two courses today - Nicky Henderson recorded a treble at Ascot (Minella Class 7/4f, Close Touch 4/7f and Petit Robin 15/8f) while Donald McCain had to be content with just the one winner at Haydock (Clondaw Kaempfer 6/5f).
Haydock's highlight tomorrow is the Betfair Chase at 3.05; six are set to face the starter. The 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run makes his seasonal reappearance and has at least ten pounds in hand over his rivals. Long Run never quite hit the same heights last season, there has always been a question surrounding his jumping and connections have indicated the going is a worry so I'm going to oppose the favourite. In the most recent renewal of the Gold Cup The Giant Bolster finished ahead of Long Run while Weird Al, who would have a chance on his very best form, was pulled up having broken a blood vessel. David Bridgwater says he'll be pleased if The Giant Bolster can finish within ten lengths of Long Run tomorrow which would suggest the gelding is likely to improve for the outing although a quote from the handler in today's Times is interesting: 'It's a 200 grand race on Saturday and he's not going there half-fit.' At 9/4, I'll take a chance with Charlie Hall winner Silviniaco Conti. Connections have also expressed reservations about the ground for this one but he blew away the cobwebs and the opposition with victory at Wetherby and may have a fitness advantage over those making their seasonal debuts; in addition Ruby Walsh is a major plus compared to Mr Sam Waley-Cohen who has ridden in just four races so far this season. In the last seven renewals, the market leader has obliged on four occasions.
Saphir River interests me in the fixed brush hurdle at 2.30; this one came over from France into Michael Scudamore's yard earlier in the year at a cost of 280,000 euros. He was sent off a 50/1 chance for the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but unshipped Sam Thomas at the second. He then ran fourth at odds of 33/1 in a listed handicap hurdle at Aintree four weeks later. Over the summer break he moved north to join Lucinda Russell (whose partner happens to be Peter Scudamore, Michael's father) and started this season in fine style taking a beginners' chase at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month. He should be competitive reverting to (brush) hurdles - I'll have an each-way wager if I can obtain around the 8/1 mark.
Over at Ascot sponsors Coral will be desperately disappointed with a turnout of just four for the feature Coral Hurdle; Oscar Whisky fell at the last last year and bids to make amends this time around but he'll be no price. If Haydock is on, there will only be four left in the Amlin Chase (2.10) in which Queen Mother Champion chase winner Finian's Rainbow makes his seasonal reapperance. He looked a little lucky to collect the spoils last March but went on from there to take the Melling Chase at Aintree. Under race conditions Captain Chris is the next best in the field and had Finian's two and threequarter lengths behind in the 2011 Arkle (Ghizao fifth). Philip Hobbs' charge had a miserable time of it last year; if he's back to his best, he can make a race of this receiving weight from his rivals (six pounds from the favourite). He's better right-handed but doesn't appreciate the ground too soft which is a negative. Captain Chris (4/1 Ladbrokes this evening) is a speculative sugggestion against Finian's Rainbow.
Aidan Coleman has already won on Quartz De Thaix this season (priced up favourite for the 2.00 at Haydock) but Aidan prefers to ride at Ascot instead where I guess he thinks the mare Pepite Rose is his best chance of a winner. Fences looked to be the making of this five-year-old last year and she started this seaon with a noteworthy third in the listed Byrne Group handicap chase three weeks ago. For those interested, it's Coral who offer the value this evening at 4/1.
Haydock's highlight tomorrow is the Betfair Chase at 3.05; six are set to face the starter. The 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run makes his seasonal reappearance and has at least ten pounds in hand over his rivals. Long Run never quite hit the same heights last season, there has always been a question surrounding his jumping and connections have indicated the going is a worry so I'm going to oppose the favourite. In the most recent renewal of the Gold Cup The Giant Bolster finished ahead of Long Run while Weird Al, who would have a chance on his very best form, was pulled up having broken a blood vessel. David Bridgwater says he'll be pleased if The Giant Bolster can finish within ten lengths of Long Run tomorrow which would suggest the gelding is likely to improve for the outing although a quote from the handler in today's Times is interesting: 'It's a 200 grand race on Saturday and he's not going there half-fit.' At 9/4, I'll take a chance with Charlie Hall winner Silviniaco Conti. Connections have also expressed reservations about the ground for this one but he blew away the cobwebs and the opposition with victory at Wetherby and may have a fitness advantage over those making their seasonal debuts; in addition Ruby Walsh is a major plus compared to Mr Sam Waley-Cohen who has ridden in just four races so far this season. In the last seven renewals, the market leader has obliged on four occasions.
Saphir River interests me in the fixed brush hurdle at 2.30; this one came over from France into Michael Scudamore's yard earlier in the year at a cost of 280,000 euros. He was sent off a 50/1 chance for the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but unshipped Sam Thomas at the second. He then ran fourth at odds of 33/1 in a listed handicap hurdle at Aintree four weeks later. Over the summer break he moved north to join Lucinda Russell (whose partner happens to be Peter Scudamore, Michael's father) and started this season in fine style taking a beginners' chase at Uttoxeter at the beginning of the month. He should be competitive reverting to (brush) hurdles - I'll have an each-way wager if I can obtain around the 8/1 mark.
Over at Ascot sponsors Coral will be desperately disappointed with a turnout of just four for the feature Coral Hurdle; Oscar Whisky fell at the last last year and bids to make amends this time around but he'll be no price. If Haydock is on, there will only be four left in the Amlin Chase (2.10) in which Queen Mother Champion chase winner Finian's Rainbow makes his seasonal reapperance. He looked a little lucky to collect the spoils last March but went on from there to take the Melling Chase at Aintree. Under race conditions Captain Chris is the next best in the field and had Finian's two and threequarter lengths behind in the 2011 Arkle (Ghizao fifth). Philip Hobbs' charge had a miserable time of it last year; if he's back to his best, he can make a race of this receiving weight from his rivals (six pounds from the favourite). He's better right-handed but doesn't appreciate the ground too soft which is a negative. Captain Chris (4/1 Ladbrokes this evening) is a speculative sugggestion against Finian's Rainbow.
Aidan Coleman has already won on Quartz De Thaix this season (priced up favourite for the 2.00 at Haydock) but Aidan prefers to ride at Ascot instead where I guess he thinks the mare Pepite Rose is his best chance of a winner. Fences looked to be the making of this five-year-old last year and she started this seaon with a noteworthy third in the listed Byrne Group handicap chase three weeks ago. For those interested, it's Coral who offer the value this evening at 4/1.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Sunday
The going at Cheltenham today, originally described as soft, good to soft in places, was changed to soft, heavy in places after the Paddy Power Gold Cup in which only six of the 18 starters completed. Two big name horses from the Henderson yard, Sprinter Sacre and Darlan, have already been taken out of their intended engagements on Sunday on account of the ground while Ruby Walsh goes to Punchestown to ride Hurricane Fly in the Morgiana Hurdle.
The feature is the Racing Post Hurdle (2.50), formerly known as the Greatwood. Underfoot conditions will make this something of a lottery - I don't intend to play but for those who do last year's second, Olofi, would be worth a second look (12/1 Sky Bet) and Bothy, second in 2010, would have been if the yard were in better form. In the past decade five-year-olds have won five runnings but it takes a very good four-year-old to pull off the trick - Detroit City (2005) and Brampour (2011) are the two to have managed it since 2002.
At the time of writing connections intend to let Captain Conan take his chance in the opener and the market suggests he's the one to beat; the favourite has obliged on six occasions in the past ten years. The horse has the look of a chaser in the making but I wouldn't be tempted on this his first try over the larger obstacles - all his opponents have previous chase experience. In fact the four-year-old His Excellency finished down the field in the Galway Plate in August; this one beat Third Intention over course and distance last time but has shown temperament on occasions - some may take the view that quirk is factored into the price of 11/1 on offer with BetVictor.
The novice hurdle (3.25) should prove useful for future reference, as should the concluding bumper. I leave the last word on the last race to Mick Channon; I quote from The Times (Friday 16 November):
'Sgt Reckless would have won the bumper at Cheltenham on Sunday but he pulled a muscle in the week. I do think he's very good.'
The feature is the Racing Post Hurdle (2.50), formerly known as the Greatwood. Underfoot conditions will make this something of a lottery - I don't intend to play but for those who do last year's second, Olofi, would be worth a second look (12/1 Sky Bet) and Bothy, second in 2010, would have been if the yard were in better form. In the past decade five-year-olds have won five runnings but it takes a very good four-year-old to pull off the trick - Detroit City (2005) and Brampour (2011) are the two to have managed it since 2002.
At the time of writing connections intend to let Captain Conan take his chance in the opener and the market suggests he's the one to beat; the favourite has obliged on six occasions in the past ten years. The horse has the look of a chaser in the making but I wouldn't be tempted on this his first try over the larger obstacles - all his opponents have previous chase experience. In fact the four-year-old His Excellency finished down the field in the Galway Plate in August; this one beat Third Intention over course and distance last time but has shown temperament on occasions - some may take the view that quirk is factored into the price of 11/1 on offer with BetVictor.
The novice hurdle (3.25) should prove useful for future reference, as should the concluding bumper. I leave the last word on the last race to Mick Channon; I quote from The Times (Friday 16 November):
'Sgt Reckless would have won the bumper at Cheltenham on Sunday but he pulled a muscle in the week. I do think he's very good.'
Friday, November 16, 2012
Paddy Power Gold Cup 2012
Tomorrow's highlight on the second day of the Open meeting is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.35) in which 19 are set to face the starter with Tanks For That declared a non-runner. Paul Nicholls saddles three; Walsh rides Al Ferof while Poquelin stands his ground which means four at the foot of the handicap have to carry more than their long handicap weight - the booking of the in-form Aidan Coleman for Questions Answered catches the eye.
The Pipe yard has a phenomenal record in this race. Martin has won eight runnings while son David chalked up his first success last year with Great Endeavour - it's no surprise to see Grands Crus, the yard's entry this year, at the head the market. In the past decade six of the winners have come from the top three in the market and three of those were sent off favourite.
Hunt Ball is a remarkable beast. Last November the gelding won a Class 5 handicap chase at Folkestone off a mark of 68; four months later he landed the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a rating of 142. Owner Mr Anthony Knott has been bullish in the build-up to this and has already backed his charge to win next March's Cheltenham Gold Cup to take £1 million out of the ring.
Nicky Henderson fields an interesting trio. McCoy rides the J P McManus owned mare Nadiya De La Vega in preference to Quantitativeasing while Geraghty is aboard the five-year-old Triolo D'Alene; since the race's inception in 1960 only one five-year-old has come home in front - Cyfor Malta in 1998. At Haydock's festival preview evening last March the handler put Triolo up as his best chance for the meeting - in the event the chestnut gelding finished well beaten by Hunt Ball but I'm guessing connections still hold this one in high regard and the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances by going as low as 10/1 in places.
I've always found Alan King's Walkon difficult to catch right but the grey has a racing weight, goes well fresh and writing in the Weekender the trainer rates his charge '...the best chance I have ever had of adding this great autumn contest to our cv.'
To this observer this renewal looks more competitive than the market might initially sugggest.
One hesitates to admit to having read Clare Balding's My Animals and Other Family but as a result I happen to know that Clare's English tutor at Newnham College, Cambridge would not be pleased to see me use the phrase 'the thing is' but, although Grands Crus may be the percentage call, the thing is the horse doesn't represent value and I still have a picture in my mind of the grey appearing to be bullied out of it three from home in the RSA last March. I'll chance Hunt Ball to collect the spoils (15/2 Stan James) and take out an each-way saver on Nadiya De La Vega (16/1 Coral, William Hill).
The Pipe yard has a phenomenal record in this race. Martin has won eight runnings while son David chalked up his first success last year with Great Endeavour - it's no surprise to see Grands Crus, the yard's entry this year, at the head the market. In the past decade six of the winners have come from the top three in the market and three of those were sent off favourite.
Hunt Ball is a remarkable beast. Last November the gelding won a Class 5 handicap chase at Folkestone off a mark of 68; four months later he landed the Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a rating of 142. Owner Mr Anthony Knott has been bullish in the build-up to this and has already backed his charge to win next March's Cheltenham Gold Cup to take £1 million out of the ring.
Nicky Henderson fields an interesting trio. McCoy rides the J P McManus owned mare Nadiya De La Vega in preference to Quantitativeasing while Geraghty is aboard the five-year-old Triolo D'Alene; since the race's inception in 1960 only one five-year-old has come home in front - Cyfor Malta in 1998. At Haydock's festival preview evening last March the handler put Triolo up as his best chance for the meeting - in the event the chestnut gelding finished well beaten by Hunt Ball but I'm guessing connections still hold this one in high regard and the layers don't appear to be taking too many chances by going as low as 10/1 in places.
I've always found Alan King's Walkon difficult to catch right but the grey has a racing weight, goes well fresh and writing in the Weekender the trainer rates his charge '...the best chance I have ever had of adding this great autumn contest to our cv.'
To this observer this renewal looks more competitive than the market might initially sugggest.
One hesitates to admit to having read Clare Balding's My Animals and Other Family but as a result I happen to know that Clare's English tutor at Newnham College, Cambridge would not be pleased to see me use the phrase 'the thing is' but, although Grands Crus may be the percentage call, the thing is the horse doesn't represent value and I still have a picture in my mind of the grey appearing to be bullied out of it three from home in the RSA last March. I'll chance Hunt Ball to collect the spoils (15/2 Stan James) and take out an each-way saver on Nadiya De La Vega (16/1 Coral, William Hill).
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Cheltenham Open meeting 2012 - Friday
Brief notes as I probably won't get involved tomorrow.
The two I'm looking forward to are Fingal Bay in the opener and Dodging Bullets in the novices' hurdle (2.25) - it will be interesting to see how the 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator fares in the latter race.
I'm not particularly keen on the Cross Country race but Balthazar King won over the course and distance at the Festival in March and acts well on good ground - in the past the going has tended to be quicker on the cross country track than on the racecourse proper. Of course, that's all obvious to the layers and they are likely to price up Philip Hobbs' charge accordingly...
The two I'm looking forward to are Fingal Bay in the opener and Dodging Bullets in the novices' hurdle (2.25) - it will be interesting to see how the 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator fares in the latter race.
I'm not particularly keen on the Cross Country race but Balthazar King won over the course and distance at the Festival in March and acts well on good ground - in the past the going has tended to be quicker on the cross country track than on the racecourse proper. Of course, that's all obvious to the layers and they are likely to price up Philip Hobbs' charge accordingly...
Friday, November 09, 2012
Wincanton whims
Paul Nicholls has won the Badger Ales Trophy (Wincanton 3.25) four times in the past ten years but likely favourite Michel Le Bon isn't one I'm particularly keen on. The nine-year-old doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock but has the look of a horse that has proved difficult to train. Last season he was a disappointment in the Hennessy and was then pulled up in Kempton's Racing Post Chase before obliging over the smaller obstacles at Cheltenham in April. If Michel Le Bon is fragile, Diamond Harry is notoriously so; on his best form it would be foolish to discount the top weight but he hasn't won since taking the Hennessy in 2010. I fancied West End Rocker for the National; he didn't take to the race and could be competitive here if fit enough but no horse older than nine has won in the past decade. Of the younger horses Colin Tizzard's course and distance winner Golden Chieftain had a nice prep taking a two and a half mile Worcester chase just over a fortnight ago while Zarrakaft has been well tipped-up. I'll take an each-way chance on David Pipe's The Package; fifth behind Meanus Dandy in the 2010 renewal off a mark of 147, he races off 139 this time and has the assistance of Timmy Murphy in the saddle.
In some ways the preceding Elite Hurdle (2.50) is more interesting and should give some pointers for the weeks ahead. Just seven in the field, three from the Nicholls' yard, with Zarkander's fifth in the Champion Hurdle catching the eye but that one has to give weight to all his rivals. Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Propsect Wells while in the Weekender Alan King describes Balder Success 'the most exciting horse of the weekend for me...' I'm beginning to have reservations about Baby Mix - he doesn't look the easiest of rides - so I'm going right out on a limb and chancing Local Hero who has looked good over hurdles this summer but may require better ground to be seen at his very best. Having said that, his rider claims seven. The winner has come from the first three in the market on nine occasions in the past ten years but only two favourites have obliged in that timeframe.
Houblon Des Obeaux, rated 142, sets a reasonable standard for the Rising Stars Novices' Chase (2.15) and is the selection while Tante Sissi should give a decent account in the mares' handicap hurdle at 1.40. Last year's winner Violin Davis, now trained by Harry Fry, is likely to prove popular. All Annalena had three warm-up races on the Flat last month and is likely to race from the front.
Over at Sandown Overturn makes his chasing debut. He was withdrawn from Wetherby last week on account of the ground - I expressed my reservations then as the fences at Wetherby are stiff enough for any novice. If Wetherby sets a stiff task, Sandown's railway fences set a much stiffer one. Overturn isn't the biggest of individuals - I'm guessing connections will watch the 1.20 with a certain amount of trepidation.
In some ways the preceding Elite Hurdle (2.50) is more interesting and should give some pointers for the weeks ahead. Just seven in the field, three from the Nicholls' yard, with Zarkander's fifth in the Champion Hurdle catching the eye but that one has to give weight to all his rivals. Ruby Walsh chooses to ride Propsect Wells while in the Weekender Alan King describes Balder Success 'the most exciting horse of the weekend for me...' I'm beginning to have reservations about Baby Mix - he doesn't look the easiest of rides - so I'm going right out on a limb and chancing Local Hero who has looked good over hurdles this summer but may require better ground to be seen at his very best. Having said that, his rider claims seven. The winner has come from the first three in the market on nine occasions in the past ten years but only two favourites have obliged in that timeframe.
Houblon Des Obeaux, rated 142, sets a reasonable standard for the Rising Stars Novices' Chase (2.15) and is the selection while Tante Sissi should give a decent account in the mares' handicap hurdle at 1.40. Last year's winner Violin Davis, now trained by Harry Fry, is likely to prove popular. All Annalena had three warm-up races on the Flat last month and is likely to race from the front.
Over at Sandown Overturn makes his chasing debut. He was withdrawn from Wetherby last week on account of the ground - I expressed my reservations then as the fences at Wetherby are stiff enough for any novice. If Wetherby sets a stiff task, Sandown's railway fences set a much stiffer one. Overturn isn't the biggest of individuals - I'm guessing connections will watch the 1.20 with a certain amount of trepidation.
Friday, November 02, 2012
Wetherby selections
The highlight on tomorrow's Wetherby card is the Charlie Hall Chase (3.25) with the world and his wife apparently tipping Paul Nicholls' Silviniaco Conti. The handler indicates it's not easy to judge how far forward his charge is but the market has something of a lop-sided look with the Nicholls horse quoted at 5/4 in most places. This hasn't been the best race for favourites in the past decade with just two obliging (Ollie Magern in 2005 and State Of Play in 2008) and on top of that I've always thought this gelding better at around two and a half miles. His record in chases at three miles or more is one win from three attempts (at Aintree); he weakened markedly up Ascot's stiff finish behind Invictus in the Reynoldstown last February although the yard wasn't firing at the time. I'm going to oppose on grounds of value. Of the others Time For Rupert ran second in last year's renewal but doesn't have the beating of Midnight Chase on official ratings. Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is best in at the weights but I've had my fingers burned with this one before. The yard has been in reasonable form of late - Hobbs trained the first three home in Chepstow's Silver Trophy last weekend so at 11/2 in places Planet Of Sound is put up as a value alternative to Silviniaco Conti. The more cautious could back both Time For Rupert (9/2) and Planet Of Sound (11/2) and avail themselves of a better price than is currently available about the favourite.
Restless Harry took last year's renewal of the John Smith's Hurdle (2.50) but looks to face a stiff task giving weight to all his rivals. In the past he hasn't always been the best of travellers so, if you're considering a wager, it would be worth checking how he has taken the preliminaries. Fair Along is another previous winner in the field while on ratings the 11 year-old Tidal Bay should come home in front. An intriguing race for sure with Smad Place being given every respect, but Cape Tribulation's second in a York handicap three weeks ago may mean he has a fitness edge over his opponents - Cape Tribulation (7/2 Betfred) is the selection.
The mares' listed hurdle (2.15) looks a close call between Une Artiste, Alasi and Baby Shine; the last named receives eight pounds from the other two and get the nod.
Overturn, second in the Champion Hurdle in March and as tough as old boots, makes his chase debut in the opener. He'll be long odds on but he isn't the biggest and the fences here are jolly stiff - not the ideal introduction to novice chasing...
Finally over at Ascot some interesting sorts go in the novices' hurdle (2.00) including a couple with form on the Flat - Andrew Balding's Chilberta King and Petara Bay, once owned by Bernie Ecclestone. Preference is for My Tent Or Yours whose second behind The New One at Aintree in April reads well.
Restless Harry took last year's renewal of the John Smith's Hurdle (2.50) but looks to face a stiff task giving weight to all his rivals. In the past he hasn't always been the best of travellers so, if you're considering a wager, it would be worth checking how he has taken the preliminaries. Fair Along is another previous winner in the field while on ratings the 11 year-old Tidal Bay should come home in front. An intriguing race for sure with Smad Place being given every respect, but Cape Tribulation's second in a York handicap three weeks ago may mean he has a fitness edge over his opponents - Cape Tribulation (7/2 Betfred) is the selection.
The mares' listed hurdle (2.15) looks a close call between Une Artiste, Alasi and Baby Shine; the last named receives eight pounds from the other two and get the nod.
Overturn, second in the Champion Hurdle in March and as tough as old boots, makes his chase debut in the opener. He'll be long odds on but he isn't the biggest and the fences here are jolly stiff - not the ideal introduction to novice chasing...
Finally over at Ascot some interesting sorts go in the novices' hurdle (2.00) including a couple with form on the Flat - Andrew Balding's Chilberta King and Petara Bay, once owned by Bernie Ecclestone. Preference is for My Tent Or Yours whose second behind The New One at Aintree in April reads well.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Brief thoughts on Saturday's NH cards
Three National Hunt cards tomorrow with the Old Roan Chase the highlight at Aintree, yet top jockeys Ruby Walsh, Aidan Coleman and 'Choc' Thornton choose to ride at Chepstow while champion AP McCoy settles for Stratford.
Eleven go in the Old Roan, where only one favourite has obliged in the previous eight runnings while a horse aged nine or older has won on six occasions in the same timeframe (Monet's Garden three times). Paul Nicholls' five-year-old Pacha Du Polder has a few novice chases under his belt (three wins, one unplaced and one unseated rider) and may struggle against more experienced opponents; the only runner not making his seasonal debut is Mahogany Blaze who could therefore be a little sharper than some of his rivals. I've a soft spot for Nacarat who has done this blog one or two favours over the years and tends to show his best on good ground but this renewal looks particularly tricky so I'm not going to play - much will depend on fitness. In spite of the stats, I'd expect the winner to come from the younger brigade.
Previously with Guillaume Macaire, the four-year-old Unioniste carries John Hales' colours (remember Azertyuiop?) and, having already won a chase at Auteuil, will be a popular choice for the 4.35, a race the Nicholls stable has won on three occasions since 2004. Having said that, he's unlikely to have things all his own way - Carlito Brigante won at Cheltenham last Saturday. This one wouldn't be guaranteed to reproduce that effort one week on but this sharp track should suit his style of running.
2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator held a five-day entry in the Aintree finale but connections have decided the grey will make his hurdling debut elsewhere.
The Persian War (3.40 Chepstow) sees Nicholls' Wonderful Charm make his debut in this country. The gelding has been well-touted for some time - in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley is quoted as saying '[Wonderful Charm is] one of the best young prospects I have managed to get out of France in recent years.' Aidan Coleman rode a fine race from the front to steal a listed novice hurdle at Kempton on Hawkhill six days ago but he prefers Anthony Honeyball's Ballybough Pat here. This one has surprised connections and won 15 days ago at Carlisle - I'll take the chance against the favourite provided he's priced 9/2 or bigger.
As always, the Silver Trophy (4.15) is most competitive. The one that catches my eye at a price is Robinson Collonges. Rated 134, he races off the same mark as when third behind Arthurian Legend in this last year. After that, he went off the rails over the larger obstacles but I'm banking on new handler Harry Fry working some magic. The stable has had a couple of winners in the past week and connections try a toungie-tie on their charge for the first time - at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Robinson Collonges is worth an each-way interest. I also looked at Rebecca Curtis' Meganisi but in this week's Weekender the trainer tells readers she thinks two and a half miles may be 'a little too far for him as he has bags of speed'.
Following a break, Roc De Guye ran well for a long way at Huntingdon last time before fading to finish seventh. He was dropped another four pounds for that effort and goes in the 3.55 at Stratford where the shorter trip and Timmy Murphy in the saddle should help. He rates an each-way chance if priced in double figures.
Punters sat up and took note of new trainer John Ferguson last season. Printmaker goes in Stratford's 4.30 but was sent off 11/8 favourite last time and disappointed. The stable hasn't had a winner since October 10th, recording thirteen consecutive losses.
Eleven go in the Old Roan, where only one favourite has obliged in the previous eight runnings while a horse aged nine or older has won on six occasions in the same timeframe (Monet's Garden three times). Paul Nicholls' five-year-old Pacha Du Polder has a few novice chases under his belt (three wins, one unplaced and one unseated rider) and may struggle against more experienced opponents; the only runner not making his seasonal debut is Mahogany Blaze who could therefore be a little sharper than some of his rivals. I've a soft spot for Nacarat who has done this blog one or two favours over the years and tends to show his best on good ground but this renewal looks particularly tricky so I'm not going to play - much will depend on fitness. In spite of the stats, I'd expect the winner to come from the younger brigade.
Previously with Guillaume Macaire, the four-year-old Unioniste carries John Hales' colours (remember Azertyuiop?) and, having already won a chase at Auteuil, will be a popular choice for the 4.35, a race the Nicholls stable has won on three occasions since 2004. Having said that, he's unlikely to have things all his own way - Carlito Brigante won at Cheltenham last Saturday. This one wouldn't be guaranteed to reproduce that effort one week on but this sharp track should suit his style of running.
2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator held a five-day entry in the Aintree finale but connections have decided the grey will make his hurdling debut elsewhere.
The Persian War (3.40 Chepstow) sees Nicholls' Wonderful Charm make his debut in this country. The gelding has been well-touted for some time - in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead bloodstock agent Anthony Bromley is quoted as saying '[Wonderful Charm is] one of the best young prospects I have managed to get out of France in recent years.' Aidan Coleman rode a fine race from the front to steal a listed novice hurdle at Kempton on Hawkhill six days ago but he prefers Anthony Honeyball's Ballybough Pat here. This one has surprised connections and won 15 days ago at Carlisle - I'll take the chance against the favourite provided he's priced 9/2 or bigger.
As always, the Silver Trophy (4.15) is most competitive. The one that catches my eye at a price is Robinson Collonges. Rated 134, he races off the same mark as when third behind Arthurian Legend in this last year. After that, he went off the rails over the larger obstacles but I'm banking on new handler Harry Fry working some magic. The stable has had a couple of winners in the past week and connections try a toungie-tie on their charge for the first time - at 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Robinson Collonges is worth an each-way interest. I also looked at Rebecca Curtis' Meganisi but in this week's Weekender the trainer tells readers she thinks two and a half miles may be 'a little too far for him as he has bags of speed'.
Following a break, Roc De Guye ran well for a long way at Huntingdon last time before fading to finish seventh. He was dropped another four pounds for that effort and goes in the 3.55 at Stratford where the shorter trip and Timmy Murphy in the saddle should help. He rates an each-way chance if priced in double figures.
Punters sat up and took note of new trainer John Ferguson last season. Printmaker goes in Stratford's 4.30 but was sent off 11/8 favourite last time and disappointed. The stable hasn't had a winner since October 10th, recording thirteen consecutive losses.
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