Quick Saturday suggestions

Presssed for time this evening, so quick notes only. The Summer Plate is the highlight at Market Rasen; no horse has carried more than 11-6 to victory in the past decade, a stat that knocks out seven of the 16 declared. Peter Bowen has a good record in this; of his pair course and distance winner North Island is preferred. Suggestion: North Island (13/2); unexposed each-way alternative: Pilgrims Lane (16/1).

2.40 Market Rasen: each-way suggestion - Little O J around tissue price 12/1.

5.10 Newbury: Of the runners with NH form (Raslan, Keys, Addwaitya and Callisto Moon) Keys is the most interesting. His short head defeat of Cinders And Ashes in a Cheltenham bumper on New Year's Day (14 furlongs) reads well; Cinders And Ashes went on to run fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. He has been slightly disappointing since and keeps the blinkers tried last time. Doesn't look a certainty to stay the trip.

8.10 Haydock: Only two with NH form, Advisor and Tropical Batchelor; Advisor is of interest. Sent off 8/1 for the 2010 Triumph Hurdle, the grey finished down the field in 11th behind Soldatino. His last run, fifth behind Gifted Leader at Sandown, looks reasonable as that one ran second to subsequent Ascot Stakes winner Veiled in May.

Ladies' days

Here's a quick round-up of the ladies who have been making the news over the past few days...

Hayley Turner had a lucky escape on Friday morning when the two-year-old filly Jessica Ennis, part owned by the World and European Heptathlon Champion after whom she is named, bolted during a routine stalls test and was then involved in a collision with a car in Newmarket.

An article published in the Metro that same morning saw Turner joined by weighing room colleagues Laura Pike and Sophie Doyle to publicise the first ever Flat race for female jockeys only which has been scheduled to take place at Carlisle's evening meeting on Monday 1st August.

Friday afternoon and Ladies Are Forever took the Group 3 Summer Stakes at York...

And a day later Turner was in the headlines once again, winning her first Group One aboard the David Simcock trained Dream Ahead.

Unfortunately there was no happy ending for the England women's football team after Faye White's penalty miss against France consigned her colleagues to a World Cup quarter final defeat, a fate similar to that suffered by England's male counterparts in the past...

And finally... One lady who has made more news than most this past week is former News Of The World editor and current News International chief executive Rebekah Brooks. It's only over the past few days that I've realised Ms Brooks, once married to Ross Kemp (aka Grant Mitchell from EastEnders I have just been informed), is presently hitched to former jockey and racehorse trainer, now turned author and journalist, Charlie Brooks. Small world, isn't it?

Long distance information?

Regular readers will know that during this Flat season I'm trying to concentrate on horses with NH form running in races beyond one and a half miles. Two recent results caught my eye - in Doncaster's opener last night Sendali (5/1), second in an Aintree handicap hurdle on his penultimate run, beat Heart Of Dubai (13/2), winner of a Cartmel novice hurdle last month, while earlier this afternoon French Hollow, winner of  a Market Rasen bumper two years ago, took York's one and three quarter mile Global Trading UK Responsible Packaging Handicap at odds of 66/1. Needless to say, I backed none of the aforementioned beasts.

Two long distance races tomorrow - York's John Smith's Silver Cup at 2.40 (not to be confused with the John Smith's Cup run at the same venue some 35 minutes later) and Chester's toteswinger Handicap which is due off at four o'clock.

Twenty are declared for the Silver Cup; the going is currently reported to be good. The Betchworth Kid finished tailed off behind Fame And Glory in the Ascot Gold Cup last time; this listed handicap represents an easier task. Alan King's gelding has his share of weight here; fourth in Newbury's totesport Hurdle reads well - he subsequently finished down the field in Sandown's Imperial Cup three weeks later before bouncing back to take a 14 furlong listed Flat race at Nottingham. Woolfall Treasure, once owned by Harry Findlay, was rated 128 over hurdles and finished down the field in the 2009 renewal of the Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He is potentially very interesting if fit enough on this seasonal debut but there's a suspicion connections might be using this as a prep for the forthcoming Glorious Goodwood meeting. La Vecchia Scuola has been out of form this term. Of the other runners, it's worth casting an eye over the Northumberland Plate form and remembering that Her Majesty The Queen's Tactician was withdrawn from that race on account of the ground. Rock A Doodle Doo heads the market and has been tipped up by several commentators; the winner has come from the top two in the market on four occasions in the past five years. The Betchworth Kid isn't the most consistent of performers but Coral stands out with a quote of 33/1 this evening; The Betchworth Kid is the each-way suggestion.

Ten of the five day entries for Chester's toteswinger Handicap had form over the sticks (including former Philip Hobbs charge Comedy Act and earlier York winner French Hollow) but only two make the final cut - Descaro and Beat The Shower. The former has hurdling form in Ireland as well as England and was beaten just under six lengths by Tim Easterby's game mare Bollin Judith last time at York; Descaro re-opposes five pounds better off tomorrow and on tonight's tissue price (12/1) offers better value - first time cheekpieces last time are replaced by a first time visor here. Beat The Shower won a Hexham handicap hurdle last summer; that day the gelding came from behind to stay on and take the spoils - that style of running isn't best served by this tight track. I shall take an each-way interest in Descaro.     

Sitting comfortably?

Following the well-publicised brawl at Royal Ascot Ladies' Day, Giles Smith penned a skit in The Times dated Saturday 25th June in which he compared racing hooliganism to football hooliganism, concluding, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the recent trouble at Ascot can lead to only one thing: 'all-seater racecourses'. That brought a smile - the number of times I've been on a racecourse, thinking what I'd give for a decent sit-down, never mind a winner; I guess I must be getting older.

Another Giles writing for The Times, this time Giles Coren (how many Gileses do The Times actually have on their books?), posted a piece in this Saturday's paper (July 2nd) after having the misfortune to be seated on the end of a row on a visit to Wimbledon.

Mr Coren observes, 'Tennis fans may all think they're pretty marvellous...but they haven't got the first idea how to behave compared with football fans.' I empathise with the author who clearly spent the whole afternoon shifitng around in his seat to allow assorted old buffers and 'rickety old dears' access to their seats without so much as one single word of thanks; on the other hand when football fans '...slide past you to go and get a pie or stab a copper they always, without fail, say "cheers mate"'. 

Giles concludes he knows which he prefers and I think I'm with him on this one. After all that talk of sitting around, I'm going for a lie-down.  

Eclipse day 2011

Just five runners in tomorrow's Eclipse, the race billed in most quarters as a match between Australian superstar So You Think and last year's Derby and Arc winner Workforce. During the week the latter has been easy to back on account of the form of Sir Michael Stoute's stable; Class Is Class won the listed Ambant Gala Stakes earlier this afternoon to give the yard its first winner since June 11th. Confront is in the line-up to act as a pacemaker for Workforce while Snow Fairy will be expected to come on for her first run of the season and Sri Putra, second in this last year, appears to have a bit to find on the book but, as connections point out, the race will be run to suit. A race to savour I think; if I have a bet, I'll side with Workforce on grounds of value - at the time of writing William Hill offers 7/4.

In the Coral Marathon at 3.40 Flying Cross has his first run for the Gosden yard, having finished third in the Irish St Leger on his last visit to a racecourse. On official ratings the colt has nine pounds and upwards in hand over tomorrow's rivals and for that reason is priced up 2/1 favourite with the sponsors. Just two in the field have NH form in the book - Sentry Duty and Dayia. Fallon rides Sentry Duty for Nicky Henderson but Sentry Duty is a gelding for whom things have to fall just right - he has shown his best form when there has been cut underfoot. Course and distance winner Dayia ran a blinder to finish fourth in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot a fortnight ago - that was the first time we'd seen Lady Green's brown mare since she had finished down the field in last season's Cesarewitch. There may be improvement to come for that seasonal debut and although she has plenty to find with several in the field, Dayia rates a sporting each-way chance at around the 16/1 mark.

Talking horses

Carlton House was sent off 5/4 favourite for the Irish Derby earlier today but The Queen's colt could only finish fourth, Aidan O'Brien training the first three home - Treasure Beach (7/2) beat stablemates Seville (5/1) and Memphis Tennessee (10/1) to give the Irish handler his ninth victory in the race. This evening Paddy Power bet on the Ladbrokes St Leger as follows: 3/1 Nathaniel, 5/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Brown Panther, 8/1 Sea Moon, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Seville.

I was out and about Saturday lunchtime when I received a phone call from a fellow racegoer I see at the races once or twice a year. He'd had a word from one of the owners of Misty Conquest who was due to run in the listed Empress Stakes at Newmarket. 14 had been declared but at the time of the call one had been withdrawn; Tom Dascombe's filly had been priced up 5/1 second favourite in a couple of the morning papers. Six furlong sprints aren't my cup of tea and a few in the field looked well fancied, including Queen's Revenge and My Propeller, owned by Newcastle footballer Joey Barton; last time out this one had won a six furlong Pontefract madien by an astonishing 17 lengths. After some consideration I decided not to play. When Channel 4 showed the race preliminaries, another two had fallen by the wayside (including My Propeller) and Misty Conquest was priced at 10/1. In the event, she knew her job, broke well, led to half way, eventually coming home third; she had no answer to the strong challenge of Lily's Angel (6/1) who won a shade more cosily than the distances might suggest and looks a smart prospect.

The Jamie Snowden trained 11-year-old Knighton Combe took this afternoon renewal of Uttoxeter's English Summer National at odds of 16/1.

Martin Waller (Tempus) penned an interesting piece in Saturday's Times under the headline 'No such thing as a dead cert for investors in online gaming'. Betfair is shortly set to release its first set of annual figures since the company's flotation; shares issued at £13 last autumn were worth just £7.43 at close of business on Friday evening.

Finally Will Hayler's blog in Saturday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4 presenter Lesley Graham's attempt to generate more interest in her nine bedroom Newmarket mansion which she is looking to sell following the collapse of her marriage to Neil;  a piece appeared in the property section of Wednesday's London Evening Standard. Back in March A.P. McCoy's house was on the market for £2.5 million but unfortunately the property was sold before I could arrange a meeting with my mortgage adviser. By comparison Ms Graham's pad looks a snip at just £1.4 million but I won't bother trying to contact my adviser as I happen to know he's on holdiay for a fortnight...   

Northumberland Plate 2011

Prior to last year's running of the Northumberland Plate I wrote:

"Recently a number of long distance races on the Flat have gone the way of horses with form over the sticks - Mamlook took the Chester Cup in May, while Junior won the Ascot Stakes and Bergo the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. The start of a trend? Probably not..."

Twelve months on, perhaps there is something of a trend.... Last year's Plate winner Overturn took this year's Chester Cup while Veiled won the Ascot Stakes and Swingkeel the Queen Alexandra Stakes, all horses with jumps form in the book. Digging a little deeper, I discovered that between the years 1994 and 2001, no winner of the Pitmen's Derby had previously run over the sticks; from 2002 onwards, five of the subsequent nine winners had National Hunt form (Bangalore 2002, Unleash 2003, Mirjan 2004, Arc Bleu 2008 and Overturn 2010).

Regular readers will know that this Flat term I'm trying to focus on horses with jumps form racing over more than one and a half miles; two Royal Ascot winners last week were supplemented by My Arch (8/1) taking the Pontefract Cup on Sunday while Kavaloti (11/10f) collected a class 6 handicap on the all-weather at Kempton on Wednesday evening.

The horses with jumps form declared for Newcastle's Northumberland Plate tomorrow are Overturn, Investissement, La Vecchia Scuola and first reserve Crackentorp who may yet line up as Her Majesty's horse, Tactitian, is rated doubtful this evening. Although this is a two mile race, a low draw is seen as important - in the past decade four winners have raced out of a stall numbered higher than nine, with Eddie Ahern performing miracles last year on Overturn who broke from stall 21. Donald McCain's charge missed last weeks' Queen Alexandra Stakes on account of the ground, has a plum draw in stall two but is rated thirteen pounds higher this year - Henry Brooke can claim five. It's worth noting that only one horse has carried more than 8-11 to victory in the last decade - Bangalore won with 9-5 in 2002. John Gosden's Investissement is another with a good draw (berth three) and looks interesting, having had this as his target for a while; previously with Evan Williams, the Singspiel gelding didn't take to hurdling, finishing tailed off in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Jim Goldie trains bay mare La Vecchia Scuola who is another with a good draw (stall 4) but has been out of sorts since her second in last season's Cesarewitch at Newmarket; on her last run over hurdles she finished over 30 lengths behind Quevega in the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. My Arch took the Pontefract Cup on Sunday but is drawn widest of all in stall 22 while Tim Easterby's Crackentorp finished third behind the useful Storm Brig in a Newcastle novice hurdle last November.

Of the other runners, Activate's Haydock win last month catches the eye, with Swingkeel (sixth) and My Arch (seventh) both having won since - Deauville Flyer, another from Tim Easterby's yard, was fourth that day, suffering interference in running around two furlongs out, and probably represents that trainer's best chance.

Almost all layers offer a quarter the odds four places - in a very competitive affair I'll take an each-way interest in Investissement at around 9/1.

I haven't done any work on Sunday's cards but I'll look closely at my Epsom Derby selection Native Khan who goes in the Irish Derby. Writing in the Weekender Kieren Fallon rates him overpriced at 8/1 and 'the logical each-way pick', while Nick Mordin selects the same horse as he sees favourite Carlton House 'vulnerable off a quick return because he's still immature'.

On the same day but changing codes, 18 have been declared for the English Summer National run over three and half miles at Uttoxeter. I prefer a young horse for this one and will do some homework on Eoin Griffin's The Last Derby who was third in the Cork National last October and sixth in the Irish National at Fairyhouse in April.

Royal Ascot 2011 reviewed

Over Royal Ascot week the blog's highlighted suggestions turned in a small loss (to recorded SPs) of 0.43 points; two winners (Canford Cliffs 11/8 and Veiled 11/2) with one each-way second (Harris Tweed 12/1) from 11 selections resulted a win strike rate of 18.18%.

First day highlights included Canford Cliffs' defeat of Goldikova and Frankel's victory in the St James's Palace Stakes; there is now a distinct possibility the two horses will clash in the Sussex Stakes at the Glorious Goodwood meeting on July 27th.

Rewilding's neck defeat of 4/11 favourite SoYou Think in Wednesday's Prince Of Wales's Stakes (one recorded bet on the favourite of £20,000-£45,000) provided plenty of drama and a nine day ban for winning jockey Frankie Dettori whose action in hitting his mount 24 times in the final two furlongs has re-ignited the debate surrounding misuse of the whip.

Fame And Glory stole the show in Thursday's Gold Cup; comparisons with the great Yeats were inevitable. Brown Panther took the concluding King George V Stakes in some style; in the immediate aftermath winning owner Michael Owen was spotted wiping a tear from his eye. Connections now appear to be considering the German Derby as well the Doncaster St.Leger. The high fashion of Ladies' Day was lowered considerably when eight men set about knocking nine bells out of each other in a full-blown brawl behind the grandstand. One imagines Her Majesty would not have been amused...

Less than a fortnight after Pour Moi had crossed La Manche to claim the Epsom Derby, France recorded a 1-2 in Friday's feature with Immortal Verse beating Nova Hawk two and a quarter lengths in the Coronation Stakes.

On the final day Await The Dawn recorded an impressive victory on ground that didn't suit in the Hardwicke; connections are still dreaming of the Breeders' Cup Classic while in the space of 40 minutes trainer James Fanshawe landed a 220/1 double, sending out Society Rock to win the Golden Jubilee Stakes at 25/1 and Deacon Blues the Wokingham at 15/2.

So, what of Royal Ascot?

Rick Broadbent, writing as Couch Potato in The Times, '...remains undecided as to whether live coverage of a Middle England bender is actually sport.'

Nonetheless there remains something quaintly reaassuring in the fact that this particular meeting can generate plenty of correspondence to the same paper's letters page. On Thursday Michael Cole of Woodbridge, Suffolk wrote, 'The preponderance of black stovepipe hats is making Royal Ascot look like an undertakers' convention. The grey topper is more suitable to a summer race meeting...' Saturday's Times published seven replies making several points on various aspects of social etiquette but perhaps Brian Smith of Wells, Somerset, asked two questions on the lips of  the silent majority when inquiring, 'Why is it necessary to wear this ridiculous garb to watch a horse race? Why can't people wear normal clothes?'

Finally, a jumps note to finish on. John Francome pointed out on Saturday's Morning Line that 2011 will be a year to remember for amateur jockey Sam Waley-Cohen. Three months after riding Long Run to victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sam walked down the aisle to marry Annabel Ballin. Francome reported that the classic car due to take the happy couple on their way unfortunately failed to start and then went on to express his hope that a similar problem wasn't repeated later in the bridal suite...

Royal Ascot 2011 - Saturday

Saturday is the final day of Royal Ascot...

Await The Dawn will be a warm favourite in the Hardwicke Stakes (3.05) but I intend to have an each-way wager on Harris Tweed. The gelding was beaten ten lengths by St Nicholas Abbey in the Ormonde at Chester run on fast ground - that one has since gone on to claim Epsom's Coronation Cup. Willie Haggas' charge is better on soft and although he has improvement to find with several in the field he rates a value bet at 16/1.

At two miles five furlongs and 159 yards Ascot's finale, the Queen Alexandra Stakes, is the longest race in the Flat calendar; Bergo took this last year - I'm concentrating on horses with form over the jumps.

American Spin, second in a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter last time, is priced up at 150/1 and has the look of a social runner. Lady Green's brown mare Dayia has form in Irish bumpers and finished fourth in this race last year. Degas Art appears to have been sold out of Howard Johnson's yard after winning a Hexham seller; now with Lucinda Russell, he went on to take a handicap hurdle at Perth off a rating of 120. Willie Mullins saddles Deutschland who was eighth in this last year and has had a couple of warm-ups while Font is something of a character who bounced back to form on his first run for Lawney Hill. Tim Vaughan's Grand Art has been mixing codes and racing over a variety of distances but hasn't won since May 2009 while Halla San found the obstacles getting in the way last winter. Ladies Best appears best on fast ground and won an Exeter maiden hurdle last month; the King's Best gelding has his first run here for James Given. Not Til Monday, owned by The Three Honest Men, races from the front and has a 19 furlong Lingfield Novice Hurdle on soft ground to his name as well as K.Fallon in the plate. Overturn will be popular for obvious reasons but it's worth noting he isn't guaranteed to stay this trip. Swingkeel may prefer better ground while Kayef ran well last time at Haydock but didn't appear to stay Sandown's stiff two miles on heavy ground in January. Elyaadi was second behind Junior in last year's Ascot Stakes and has the look of a mare laid out for this.  

In the past 10 years the winner has come from the top five in the market on nine occasions. Those of interest are Elyaadi, Overturn, Dayia, Swingkeel, Degas Art and Deutschland. Dayia is discounted as she hasn't seen a racecourse since last October and Swingkeel as he appears to prefer top of the ground. After Overturn Degas Art is the highest-rated horse in the race but it's difficult to envisage the recent winner of a Hexham seller coming home first here. I prefer Elyaadi to Overturn as the Singspiel mare has winning form over two and a half miles and Overturn was allowed a relatively easy time up front in May's Chester Cup. Elyaadi is the pick with Willie Mullins' Deutschland the each-way suggestion for those looking for something at a bigger price.                  

Royal Ascot 2011 - Friday

Pressed for time this evening so I have concentrated on the Queen's Vase, a two mile race for three-year-olds which is due off at 5 o'clock. The current going is good to soft, soft in places, and with further rain forecast this will represent a tough test for these young horses.

Henry Cecil has won seven previous renewals and Aidan O'Brien two of the last four runnings while Mark Johnson has trained the winner of this race on five occasions in the past decade - he saddles three this year. On official ratings likely favourite Regent Street is the one to beat. The Galileo colt won his maiden over 11 furlongs in December and his third behind Recital in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial reads well given Recital subsequently finished sixth in the Epsom Derby, beaten under five lengths. He doesn't appear entirely straightforward, having tried blinkers for the first time last time out; here connections have opted to try cheekpieces for the first time. Namibian looks the pick of Mark Johnson's runners, beaten under two lengths trying to concede 16lbs to stablemate Eternal Heart at Musselburgh a fortnight ago. Namibian has been kept busy in contrast to the same stable's relatively unexposed Halifax. Henry Cecil's Solar Sky, another Galileo colt, merits attention. His second to World Domination on his racecourse debut caught the eye but he was only workmanlike the next time when winning a Haydock maiden at odds of 2/13. The Weeknder reports Cecil holds this one in some regard; World Domination runs in the King Edward VII Stakes at 3.05 and may provide a pointer to Solar Sky's chance. Of the remainder Roger Varian's Ittirad looks intriguing and has shown he can handle soft ground.

The Mark Johnson stable is respected but a strike rate of 7/79 (8.86%) in the past fortnight is a little below par. Ittirad, a Janaury foal, has enough to find on ratings but is less exposed than one or two of these and rates the tentative each-way suggestion (8/1 with William Hill this evening).

Royal Ascot 2011 - Thursday is Gold Cup Day

The highlight on Ladies' Day is the Gold Cup run over two and a half miles; fifteen go to post. Last year's 20/1 winner Rite Of Passage unfortunately misses the event through injury.

The market has something of a lop-sided look with layers going 6/1 the field bar one; the one in question is Aidan O'Brien's Fame And Glory. The breeding boys believe the Ballydoyle bay should stay but I don't feel inclined to find out at odds of just 7/4. He didn't impress everyone when taking the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown two and a half weeks ago and has a further six furlongs to travel here but on official ratings the favourite has at least five pounds in hand over all tomorrow's opponents.

As I've done with several long distance Flat races this term, I'm concentrating on horses with previous form over the jumps. Blue Bajan finished down the field in the 2009 Champion Hurdle behind Punjabi; he was subsequently off the track for over a year but appears rejuvenated in the care of David O'Meara. Connections have supplemented the gelding for this after his victory in Sandown's Henry II Stakes. Kasbah Bliss has finished second to Inglis Drever and fourth to Big Buck's in two renewals of Cheltenham's World Hurdle but has never quite lived up to the potential and came home sixth in this last year. The Betchworth Kid has bit and pieces of form - a close fourth to Recession Proof in Newbury's totesport Trophy last Feburary reads well but he isn't consistent and doesn't really strike me as the winner. If in the mood he'll stay and appears to have shown better form with some cut in the ground.

I'm not convinced I've mentioned the winner, so I'll have an each-way wager on Blue Bajan. He has form with a couple of the more fancied runners - William Hill's 14/1 looks reasonable value.

Royal Ascot 2011 - Wednesday

Wednesday's feature is the Prince of Wales's Stakes at 3.45 in which seven are set to face the starter. So You Think was seriously impressive in Australia and has continued in the same vein on two starts for Aidan O'Brien. He'll be no price so I'm gong to oppose with Planteur who has a decent turn of foot and may well prove a better colt at four than he was at three. Dylan Hill points out in the Weekender Royal Ascot Guide that the last two Prix Garnay winners to contest this have won, so Planteur, 4/1 in places, gets the nod.

In the opening Jersey Stakes Henry Candy's Codemaster is the one to beat on official ratings. This race has been the target - last time out the colt won the listed King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket, breaking the seven furlong course record in the process. Codemaster is likely to appreciate drying ground and is the selection.

The Windsor Forest at 3.05 looks extremely competitive - Seta (4/1) rates nothing more than a tentative suggestion - while as a matter of principle I never bet the annual cavalry charge that is the Royal Hunt Cup - 31 declared and layers go 6/1 the field. For those tempted, note that most bookmakers are offering a quarter the odds five places but amongst those only paying four are William Hill, Coral, Stan James and totesport.  

Royal Ascot 2011 - Tuesday

Tuesday's Royal Ascot card looks the best of the entire week, the highlight being the St James's Palace Stakes due off at 3.45. Frankel, trained by Sir Henry Cecil who was awarded a knighthood in the recent Queen's Birthday Honours List, made all to blow away his rivals in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket a little over six weeks ago. He'll be no price and  there are fears in some quarters the race may have left its mark. Recent rain should benefit Dream Ahead - Dream Ahead each way (14/1) is the suggestion.

Queen Anne held the first Ascot races in 1711, 300 years ago; the first race of the meeting is named after the monarch. On paper this year's renewal looks a clash between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova. Last year the mare Goldikova beat Paco Boy, trained by Richard Hannon, a neck. Hannon also trains Canford Cliffs and word is the handler considers Canford Cliffs a better horse so Canford Cliffs has to be the selection.

In the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles, I'm going to follow a theme discussed on the blog in recent weeks and concentrate on horses with jumps form.

Top weight Junior won this off a 10 pound lower mark last year; he took the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival by an astonishing 24 lengths in March so it's not surprising to see layers mark up David Pipe's charge favourite. Paul Webber's Australia Day likes to race from the front and finished fourth in the one and a half mile Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at this meeting last year before going on to take the competitive totescoop6 handicap hurdle at Market Rasen later in the summer; the grey gelding has never won beyond 17 furlongs. Sunwise moved from John Oxx to Paul Nicholls but didn't appear in love with jumping; on his inaugural run for Willie Haggas, he finished fourth in a York claimer and  has enough to find. The last time we saw Tyrells Wood, owned by Dr Marman Koukash and now trained by Ian Williams, was in this event a year ago when he finished eleventh - the booking of Jamie Spencer catches the eye. Charlie Mann's Unleashed has never won beyond 12 furlongs and finished down the field last year while Brian Ellison's Palomar has been kept busy but strikes me as a horse who has to have things fall just right. Private Story has had just one run for Tim Vaughan; he finished seventh in last year's Queen's Vase, beaten under ten lengths, and could improve for the extra half mile. Nicky Henderson's mare Veiled warrants every respect; Fallon won cosily on this one at Newmarket last time and the second that day, Gifted Leader, obliged at Sandown yesterday. Phoenix Flight will stay but doesn't appeal while La Estrella's last run over hurdles saw him finish fourth in a Stratford seller in 2008; he didn't appear to stay two miles three furlongs that day. Rattan, once with Henry Cecil and now with Willie Mullins, merits attention but bottom weight Alsadaa tries this trip for the first time.

As a play against probable favourite Junior, who is unlikely to be allowed an easy time up front, Veiled is suggested (has won at Cheltenham over two mile five furlongs) while Willie Mullins' Rattan is the each-way wager at 14/1 (Richard Hughes in the plate).

And finally, for those who must have a bet in the King's Stand Stakes at 3.05, I'd be prepared to give Overdose, aka the 'Budapest Bullet', another chance. The entire disappointed at Haydock the last time but recent rain should have helped; Coral offer 16/1 which some may feel merits each-way support.         

When Saturday comes

With Ascot just around the corner I intend to watch from the sidelines tomorrow.

Tuesday's card at the royal meeting looks exceptional with the reappearance of the 2000 Guineas winner Frankel in the St James's Palace Stakes an eagerly awaited highlight; connections of the favourite have indicated different tactics are likely be adopted in this race. The opening Queen Anne Stakes, set to feature a clash between Canford Cliffs and Goldikova, together with the five furlong King's Stand Stakes, provide strong support to the main event.

If I'm tempted off the straight path when Saturday comes, I'll look at horses with previous jumps form in the concluding handicap at Sandown run over one and threequarter miles. Top weight Right Stuff is a dual purpose horse who hasn't won since April 2009; last time out he finished third off a rating of 112 in a Fontwell handicap hurdle so he is respected here with a mark of 85. Owned by Malcolm Denmark Kid Charlemagne hasn't run over hurdles since 2008 when Carl Llewellyn was training; subsequently the gelding was off the track for over two years. His third behind Illustrious Blue at odds of 80/1 in the2010 Goodwood Cup reads well and the latest effort after a break can be forgiven. The gelding has clearly been difficult to train and sports a first-time tonuge-tie tomorrow - if the tissue price of 50/1 becomes available, I'll take an each-way interest. Kazzene, owned by Terry Neill, had the Triumph Hurdle as a target at one stage. David Pipe's charge has since shown signs of reluctance in his races and has been described by his handler as 'a bit of a character but he's got an engine.' Rated 123 over hurdles, he goes off a mark of 83 tomorrow so on bare figures makes more appeal than the top weight. Gifted Leader finished eighth at York earlier today - I'd be surprised  to see him in tomorrow's line-up.
  

After the Derby

French-trained colt Pour Moi took an enthralling renewal of the Derby. 19-year-old Mickael Barzalona, riding in the race for the first time, brought his mount from last to first to beat 25/1 chance Treasure Beach a head with the Queen's Carlton House threequarters of a length adrift in third. There were a few raised eyebrows immediately afterwards as Barzalona stood bolt upright in his irons to salute the victory before he'd actually passed the winning post. Connections of Carlton House were left to rue their luck but to this observer the better horse won on the day. The victory doesn't appear to have impressed official handicapper Phil Smith who has tentatively given Pour Moi a rating of 122, the lowest rating since Sir Percy won in 2006. On several occasions through the afternoon the BBC's coverage of the royal angle verged on the ridiculous while the Court of Appeal ruled that Kieren Fallon could not ride in the race, a decision the jockey likened to 'being knocked out in the first round at Wimbledon.'

Those disappointed Carlton House didn't oblige for the Queen may want to bid for a painting of Her Majesty instead. Sir Alfred James Munnings' A Study for HM The Queen and Aureole will be sold at Christie's on June 15th; the auctioneers place a £60,000-£80,000 price tag on the piece...

Whatever you think of Fred Done, you can't argue with the man's sense of timing. The day after it was announced Betfred's bid for the Tote had been successful, he appeared on the Morning Line and offered to refund all losing singles on the Derby (up to a maximum of £500) if the Queen's Carlton House won. A nice stunt, and in the event it didn't cost him a penny.

I wasn't paying full attention but I sensed Clare Balding nearly had another Liam Treadwell moment when she informed viewers before Friday's Oaks that one particular jockey, an Everton fan, had a tattoo on his back that had been unfortunately misspelt (reading Eeverton instead of Everton). Who was that jockey?

Finally, for those interested, Royal Ascot is a little over a week away; the Weekender / Raceform Update Royal Ascot Ultimate Guide 2011 went on sale Friday 3rd June.

Derby Day 2011

The jockeys have been making the news today... There were two stand-out rides at Epsom earlier, from Ryan Moore aboard Saint Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation Cup and from Johnny Murtagh who pinched the Oaks from the front on Dancing Rain. Frankie Dettori found himself in trouble with the stewards after the Oaks, having been found guilty of dropping his hands and losing third place; he has been hit with a ten day ban. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen whether Kieren Fallon will be able to ride in tomorrow's Derby after the owner of Native Khan took out a High Court injunction to prevent the jockey from riding Aidan O'Brien's Recital; the judge initially ruled he would not prevent Fallon from riding but the decision has been taken to appeal - the result is due at 0900 Saturday morning.

My Derby record makes grim reading with just two wins (Authorized 2007 and Workforce 2010) in forty years of trying. Generally the market has proved a good guide to the race with Sinndar (7/1) being the biggest priced winner in recent years. Using that benchmark, the victor will come from a list that comprises Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville. I can't have the Queen's colt, Carlton House. His victory in the Dante was over three seconds slower than Midday's time in the Middleton Stakes half an hour earlier; he isn't guaranteed to stay; he doesn't represent value while his problems in the build-up have been well-documented. Fallon originally committed to ride Native Khan but has jumped ship; the jock has written a bullish piece in the Weekender about Recital's chance but at this point we don't know if he'll be on board. Seville finished second behind Carlton House in the muddling Dante and on breeding looks the more likely to stay the trip. Pour Moi has been well backed in recent weeks but French traned horses don't have a great record in the race.

Native Khan catches my eye, although obviously Fallon's view is respected. Ed Dunlop's grey isn't guaranteed to stay but he appeared to finish the 2000 Guineas strongly. Timeform rates the principals as follows: Carlton House 136p; Native Khan 134p; Seville 133p; Recital 133; Pour Moi 129p. At 12/1 with Coral I'll chance Native Khan staying the distance and have an each-way wager. For the dreamers amongst you, one that will stay and looks overpriced at 100/1 is Pisco Sour, although the luck of the draw (stall one) hasn't been kind to Hughie Morrison and his colt.

Should Carlton House win for Her Majesty, she will become the first royal to win the Derby since King Edward VII took the race with Minoru in 1909. Should Carlton House disappoint but Sohraab win the preceding Epsom Dash, I'd imagine Her Majesty would not be particularly amused; Kate Middleton's parents own a share of Sohraab...

Up at Newcastle's evening meeting, several runners in the two mile handicap (7.30) have form over the sticks. Orsippus is one that stands out, despite top weight, having finished third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham in March. Off a mark of 137 he disappointed in the Swinton Hurdle but he starts this Grade 6 handicap off 62. He would be of interest if priced around 5/1 (as he is in tonight's tissue). In the past Westlin' Winds has tended to show better form with cut underfoot; this is his third run for Brian Ellison, having moved north from Charles Egerton's yard a couple of months back. Brian Ellison's 21% strike rate in the past fortnight means an improvement on those first two runs wouldn't be a complete surprise.  

In the frame...

Earlier this week Daryl Jacob was appointed Paul Nicholls' second jockey. Having read Lucky Break and Ruby: The Autobiography, I wondered whether Nicholls would have perhaps considered an alternative arrangement this time given that first choice Walsh missed much of last year's core NH season with a broken leg. Of course, Walsh is peerless and returned to action in March to ride five Festival winners. Nonetheless hints of tension in the partnership were inevitably present - Nicholls was known to be disappointed by Walsh's decision to ride Willie Mullins' Mikael D'Haguenet ahead of Aiteen Thirtythree in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. In the Weekender Alistair Whitehouse-Jones reports that trainer Nick Williams has acted quickly and appointed James Reveley as a replacement for Jacob but hints that Reveley's reluctance to relocate south could lead to problems in the future.

It may be very early days in the new NH season but I've seen snippets from Simon Holt and Alan Lee suggesting two jockeys who could give current champion A P McCoy a run for his money this year are Jason Maguire and the aforementioned Daryl Jacob.

Mickael Barzalona rode a double at Newmarket yesterday and later Barcelona won the Champions League Final at Wembley, but did anyone else think Paddy Power were sailing close to the wind with the advertisement that interspersed Channel 4's racing coverage? A young lady showed viewers a mobile device displaying the message 'Barcelona win normal time, refund losing bets'; the lady in question then encouraged punters to go to a specific web address. In actual fact the refunds applied to Paddy Power's correct score, scorecast and first/last goalscorer markets only; although full details were displayed in 'small print' on screen, I thought the deliberate impression created was the refund applied to all bets struck.

Finally, a couple of horses you may wish to follow if, unlike Ryan Giggs, you're a fan of Twitter...

Twitter horse Trending @Trending_Horse trained by @jeremygask website: http://socialmediaracing.com/

The People's Horse @peopleshorse website: http://www.thepeopleshorse.co.uk/

Student Horse Tae Kwon Do @StudentHorse His progress has been mentioned on the blog previously; he obliged at odds of 9/2 at Fontwell earlier today.

Friday night ramblings

There's a decent enough card at Stratford tomorrow evening but I imagine the attendance is likely to suffer as Manchester United play Barcelona in the Champions League final at Wembley. The going at the Warwickshire track is described as good, good to firm in places, with 18mm of rain falling on Thursday. 11 go for The Gambling Prince Trophy at 7.20; a case can be made for most of them. Invisible Man pipped Swing Bill a neck at Worcester ten days ago with Commemoration Day another ten and a half lengths back in fifth; the winner that day may well struggle to confirm placings on the revised ratings. Two Welsh handlers in good form are Rebecca Curtis and Peter Bowen; the former trains The Jigsaw Man but I'm tempted to take an each-way chance with Bowen's Sunday City (16/1 in tonight's tissue). This one isn't easy to catch right and isn't certain to give his running but he retains some ability having won the Macer Gifford Handicap Chase at Huntingdon last autumn and appeared somewhat unlucky when slipping up at Ludlow on his penultimate run.

Another Welsh handler in form Tim Vaughan (25% strike rate in past fortnight) saddles The Ferbane Man in the Warwickshire Hunt Handicap Chase at 7.55. This one is a trier and a stayer but in a stable tour article last October the handler said 'He loves bottomless ground and grinds the opposition down.' With the going on the quick side I'll watch from the sideleines.

The booking of  McCoy for Amercian Art in the opener catches my eye. The champ has ridden Rebecca Curtis' well-regarded gelding Praxiteles before. I'll check the price before deciding whether to bet.

I'm sure Sir Alex Ferguson would welcome any diversion from the pressures of the build-up to a Champions League final but his two runners at Sandown last night failed to oblige. Pausanias finished fourth in a listed stakes while the somewhat inappropriately named Magic City could only finish third despite being sent off 10/11 favourite in another listed event. The irony is Magic City was beaten by Pyman's Theory, part-owned by Michael Owen. After pulling a stunt like that, I'd expect Owen to be leaving Old Trafford during the close season. Blue Bajan, a former Swinton Handicap Hurdle winner, took the two mile Henry II Stakes.

Following on from that prompt, horses with jumps form racing over a distance of more than one and a half miles on the Flat tomorrow include Cotillon, My Arch, La Estrella and Kayef in Haydock's opener; of these, Cotillon and Michael Scudamore's Kayef are of interest. The latter has a Sandown juvenile hurdle to his name and finished down the field in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. The colt doesn't look the easiest of rides but ran well to finish a close-up fourth at Ascot the last time, priced 33/1. Coral bet 16/1 for tomorrow's race.

In Catterick's 4.05 Micky Hammond's Heart Of  Dubai won over course and distance the last time but isn't guaranteed to reproduce that effort while mare Madamlily looks to have a tough enough task giving weight to all her rivals.

Newmarket's finale includes Veiled, Gifted Leader and Blue Spartan. Nicky Henderson has booked Kieren Fallon for Veiled. Gifted Leader has won a Stratford Class 3 hurdle; rated 130 over hurdles, the gelding goes off a mark of 77 here and would be of some interest for each-way punters if priced up at 16/1 (as in tonight's tissue). The grey Blue Spartan looks sure to appreciate this trip.

Digestives

A good weekend for the Coolmore operation with Aidan O'Brien's son Jospeh claiming his first Classic winner aboard Roderic O'Connor in yesterday's Irish 2000 Guineas while earlier this afternoon Misty For Me took the Irish 1000 Guineas. This evening William Hill is best-priced about both horses for Epsom - Roderic O'Connor is quoted at 20/1 for the Derby and Misty For Me 10/1 for the Oaks.

There was plenty of media hype surrounding Hungarian sprinter Overdose, aka the Budapest Bullet, and his attempt on Haydock's Temple Stakes. In the event the Bullet proved to be a blank, trailling home a disappointing seventh. After the race pilot Andreas Suborics indicated the horse may appreciate more give underfoot following his recent training problems.

Plenty think Carlton House is something of a shoo-in for the Derby. Generally the market has proved a very good guide to the race (no winner priced bigger than 7/1 in the past decade) and the right vibes have been coming out of the stable. Nevertheless, three reasons to be wary...This year's Dante was a muddling affair with the time (2m 13.49) over three seconds slower than the Middleton Stakes (2m 10.05) run half an hour earlier; the colt isn't guaranteed to stay; the current price offers little in the way of value.

Many years ago an acquaintance of mine described our sport as 'a game of regrets', pointing out that even when you've lucky enough to have backed a winner, you're somehow troubled by the fact you hadn't increased your stake money. Last week my particular regret was not to have chanced Moorlands Jack on his first try over hurdles at Uttoxeter. In a Weekender Stable Tour article last September handler Tim Vaughan was particularly sweet on the (then) unraced  five-year-old, commenting the bay gelding would be 'speedy enough to win first time out'. Two below par efforts in bumpers didn't look encouraging going into the Uttoxeter race but the trainer's faith wasn't misplaced as 20/1 chance Moorlands Jack won despite being less than fluent at a couple of his hurdles. I'll monitor progress with interest. Others worth a second look if appearing in the foreseeable future include recent Perth winner Lewlaur Supreme, David Pipe's bumper winners Swing Bowler and Barney Cool and Paul Webber's Monkey Milan who took a Towcester bumper - jock Denis O'Regan was reported keen not to use the whip on this rather green five-year-old.

Finally, where's the value? £50 million for Chelsea footballer Fernando Torres or £53 million for Waterstone's 300 High Street bookstores?          
 

Friday night thoughts

In recent weeks rumours have been rife in racing and the national press concerning an ongoing investigation being conducted by the British Horseracing Authority (BHA). Earlier today the result of that investigation was made public as the BHA charged four jockeys and one ex-rider with breaking the rules of racing by conspiring to commit a fraudulent or corrupt practice in ten separate races run between January and August 2009. The four jockeys were named as Paul Doe, Greg Fairley, Kirsty Milczarek and Jimmy Quinn; former rider now trainer Paul Fitzsimons faces similar charges, as do two licensed owners and six other persons. The date of the hearing has been set for Thursday 20th October; unsurprisingly the jockeys charged, who can continue to ride, have vowed to clear their names. Unfortunately episodes such as this have become all too familiar in recent years.

Regular readers will know that I've decided to focus on horses with form over the sticks running in races over further than one and a half miles this Flat campaign. Nicky Henderson's Oasis Knight goes in the 3.10 at York; this one won a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Aintree a fortnight ago sporting first time blinkers. The gelding's second to subsequent Supreme Novice winner Al Ferof  in February reads well enough and the blinds remain on here but on official ratings he has enough to find with two or three of these. Palomar was third in the Lanzarote at Kempton last January but has ten pounds more to find and makes little appeal.

In Chester's 4.35 Cotillion, Bollin Felix and Comedy Act have all collected over hurdles this winter. Both Cotillion and Bollin Felix probably prefer cut while Comedy Act is of some interest. Formerly with Sir Mark Prescott this one sold for 125,000 guineas at the Newmarket sales and at one point was quoted a 25/1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle. He's not lived up to expectations - connections try cheekpieces for the first-time here. He represents nothing more than an each-way longshot but has a decent draw next to the rail in stall one.

Nicky Henderson's First Point is rated 140 over hurdles yet races off a mark of 70 in Newbury's 8.15; the booking of  Kieren Fallon catches the eye and the yard has had five wins from 26 runs in the past fortnight. In the same race Gunslinger looks an outsider but Ian Williams' Rebel Dancer boasts decent form with a second to Tocca Ferro to his name. He failed to get competitive in the Swinton at Haydock the last time but I'd forgive that effort and the quick ground shouldn't pose a problem.