I'm a little pressed for time this evening, so here goes...
At Sandown Optimus Maximus looks the one in the opener but he'll be no price; Amore Mio is the likeliest danger. In the 2.05 Paul Nicholls has issued an upbeat bulletin about Celestial Halo while the Pipe team has said their horse, Osana, will come on for the run. Only six in The Scilly Isles Novices' Chase but it's still extremely competitive. The bottom one, Araldur, is suited by the conditions of the race as he steps up to two and a half miles for the first time - connections think the extra distance will help their horse. Twiston-Davies thinks a lot of Buck The Legend but the stable is just emerging from a poor spell and their charge is probably best watched here. In the 3.10 Blue Shark was badly hampered last time when travelling smoothly and is likely to be well-supported. I see the Racing Post has priced up Hills Of Aran at 33/1. The horse was third in this last year and reverts back to hurdles after an unsuccessful try at fencing; he'd have an each-way squeak if at his best but isn't the easiest of rides. All eyes will be on the highly-regarded Killaghy Castle in the finale; McCoy will be hoping his mount Good Company helps him towards his 3000th winner.
Degas Art will be worth a second look in the opener at Doncaster while in the Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby Will Be Done may not stay the trip and Companero just gallops so I'm considering taking a chance with Philip Hobbs' Kornati Kid.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Weekend round-up
Testing conditions at Leopardstown placed a premium on stamina in the Irish Champion Hurdle earlier today and the remarkable Brave Inca (11/4) collected the spoils at the grand old age of eleven. 2/1 favourite Sublimity proved a major disappointment, trailing in fourth. In an interview on Radio Five Live beforehand trainer Robert Hennessy was particularly bullish about his charge's chances but after the race connections reported the horse had scoped dirty.
Nicky Henderson decided not to run Barbers Shop in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham yesterday on account of the heavy ground. The Aon Chase at Newbury is being considered as an alternative; if the horse goes there, he's likely to bump into Denman. Teletext report that Henderson wasn't too downhearted following Punchestowns' defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle. Punchestowns failed by four lengths to concede eight pounds to Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's. The report implied the trainer had 'left something to work on'.
Here's a question - will the Tizzards enter Joe Lively for the Gold Cup?
Diamond Harry maintained his unbeaten run by taking the opener but he only just got there and looks a jolly tricky ride. The Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle is his Festival target; Ladbrokes offer a miserly-looking 3/1 about the horse for that race.
Over at Doncaster Malcolm Jefferson's Cape Tribulation ran out an impressive winner of the three mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. His cause was helped somewhat by the fall of 11/10 favourite On Raglan Road as they entered the home straight for the final time. Cape Tribulation may have won anyway but the fall came too early to say anything with any certainty. In the winner's enclosure afterwards Derek Thompson asked the trainer for a comment and was promptly pointed in the direction of the jockey! Connections are now considering Cheltenham, Aintree and some high profile Flat races too.
Channel Four televised a bumper live for the first time on Saturday, the concluding race at Doncaster. As the runners waited for the off, Tommo informed viewers that 50/1 shot Switched Off looked very well in the paddock; the horse ran a blinder, going down one and a quarter lengths to 66/1 chance Par Avion. You're unlikely to see those fancy prices the next time they run!
Both of my regular readers will recall the anguish suffered in the Tips' household over a year ago when the BBC announced its decision to axe major parts of the Ceefax racing service. Even the Prime Minister offered me his support. Eventually I migrated to Teletext on Channel Four but, occasionally, when feeling nostalgic, I check out the racing pages on Ceefax, for old times' sake. Obviously the service doesn't compare, but imagine my horror last Thursday when the second of the two(!) reported stories discussed what action Mark Hughes was going to take after Robinho had gone AWOL from Manchester City's training camp in Tenerife. Just where has it all gone wrong? For those who might happen to be wondering, the lead story on the Ceefax racing pages last Thursday night was 'Red Rum wins third National'.
Nicky Henderson decided not to run Barbers Shop in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham yesterday on account of the heavy ground. The Aon Chase at Newbury is being considered as an alternative; if the horse goes there, he's likely to bump into Denman. Teletext report that Henderson wasn't too downhearted following Punchestowns' defeat in the Cleeve Hurdle. Punchestowns failed by four lengths to concede eight pounds to Paul Nicholls' Big Buck's. The report implied the trainer had 'left something to work on'.
Here's a question - will the Tizzards enter Joe Lively for the Gold Cup?
Diamond Harry maintained his unbeaten run by taking the opener but he only just got there and looks a jolly tricky ride. The Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle is his Festival target; Ladbrokes offer a miserly-looking 3/1 about the horse for that race.
Over at Doncaster Malcolm Jefferson's Cape Tribulation ran out an impressive winner of the three mile Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle. His cause was helped somewhat by the fall of 11/10 favourite On Raglan Road as they entered the home straight for the final time. Cape Tribulation may have won anyway but the fall came too early to say anything with any certainty. In the winner's enclosure afterwards Derek Thompson asked the trainer for a comment and was promptly pointed in the direction of the jockey! Connections are now considering Cheltenham, Aintree and some high profile Flat races too.
Channel Four televised a bumper live for the first time on Saturday, the concluding race at Doncaster. As the runners waited for the off, Tommo informed viewers that 50/1 shot Switched Off looked very well in the paddock; the horse ran a blinder, going down one and a quarter lengths to 66/1 chance Par Avion. You're unlikely to see those fancy prices the next time they run!
Both of my regular readers will recall the anguish suffered in the Tips' household over a year ago when the BBC announced its decision to axe major parts of the Ceefax racing service. Even the Prime Minister offered me his support. Eventually I migrated to Teletext on Channel Four but, occasionally, when feeling nostalgic, I check out the racing pages on Ceefax, for old times' sake. Obviously the service doesn't compare, but imagine my horror last Thursday when the second of the two(!) reported stories discussed what action Mark Hughes was going to take after Robinho had gone AWOL from Manchester City's training camp in Tenerife. Just where has it all gone wrong? For those who might happen to be wondering, the lead story on the Ceefax racing pages last Thursday night was 'Red Rum wins third National'.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Cheltenham trials and Doncaster
Only eight go to post in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at 2.35 but it looks an intriguing contest. Halcon Genelardais is a model of consistency, the clear form pick and deserves to collect a decent prize. Of the two Nicholls runners, Ruby Walsh prefers Nozic, who is a bigger price in the tissue, to stablemate Star De Mohaison. I'm sure Howard Johnson has been working on Tidal Bay's jumping but the question marks in that department are a concern. In this I've decided to go for an each-way wager on one of the longer priced runners. Joe Lively has course and distance winning form and will relish a slog in the mud but he has it all to do to turn round previous form with Halcon Genelardais on roughly two stone worse terms. That being the case, Snoopy Loopy each way is the selection provided the eight face the starter. There's a niggling doubt that he may be suffering from the effects of several tough races. In the King George on Boxing Day he fell away badly a mile or so from home which was disappointing. The ground was plenty fast enough for him at Kempton and, as he struggled to go the pace, his jumping deteriorated. The heavy ground here will help as he's not always the most fluent of jumpers but he stays all day and the stable will be keen to pick up points for the Order of Merit; he's priced up at around 20/1.
In the 3.10 I'm not inclined to oppose Walkon, even though Reve De Sivola is entitled to beat the likely favourite on official ratings. Simarian was slightly disappointing behind both those horses at Chepstow last time but he has course and distance winning form - it would be no surprise to see him in the mix; had there been eight or more runners, he would have made some appeal each-way.
Punchestowns is another favourite I won't be taking on while in the 1.30 I'm sticking with Hennessy who didn't get a run last weekend at Wincanton and this race looks slightly less competitive.
In Doncaster's 1.30 King Jack should be thereabouts in a tough-looking handicap hurdle; he rates an each-way wager if priced in double figures but wouldn't want the conditions too testing while those desperate for an interest in the Sky Bet Chase could do worse than Alexanderthegreat who has a racing weight and has been in decent form recently.
In the 3.10 I'm not inclined to oppose Walkon, even though Reve De Sivola is entitled to beat the likely favourite on official ratings. Simarian was slightly disappointing behind both those horses at Chepstow last time but he has course and distance winning form - it would be no surprise to see him in the mix; had there been eight or more runners, he would have made some appeal each-way.
Punchestowns is another favourite I won't be taking on while in the 1.30 I'm sticking with Hennessy who didn't get a run last weekend at Wincanton and this race looks slightly less competitive.
In Doncaster's 1.30 King Jack should be thereabouts in a tough-looking handicap hurdle; he rates an each-way wager if priced in double figures but wouldn't want the conditions too testing while those desperate for an interest in the Sky Bet Chase could do worse than Alexanderthegreat who has a racing weight and has been in decent form recently.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Nibs [news in brief stories]
Such was the authority of Master Minded's victory at Ascot on Saturday bookmaker Paddy Power are paying out on ante-post bets about the horse for the Champion Chase. I can't recall a bookmaker paying out early on a horse race before.
A few fancied horses didn't appear to handle the ground at Haydock on Saturday including Snap Tie, Dee Ee Williams and Mahonia. Two that patently did are Songe and Alfie Flits. Songe has the Totesport Trophy at Newbury as his next target while Alfie Flits could run at Kelso before going for a novice event at Aintree in April.
It was interesting to hear Paul Nicholls explain that he has had to 'build Denman up' after his operation; the horse has clearly been quite ill. The acid test will come in the Aon Chase at Newbury, although this evening I note he also has an entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 8th.
The credit crunch is biting - Great Leighs racecourse is now in the hands of administators and the signs don't look encouraging.
Cheltenham's Trials meeting this weekend should prove informative with the Festival just around the corner - let's hope the weather plays its part.
Mrs Tips has been unusually quiet at home the last couple of days - I even managed to get away with something yesterday. I suspect it has something to do with the fact the BBC are to show all Andy Murray's Australian Open matches on terrestrial TV...
A few fancied horses didn't appear to handle the ground at Haydock on Saturday including Snap Tie, Dee Ee Williams and Mahonia. Two that patently did are Songe and Alfie Flits. Songe has the Totesport Trophy at Newbury as his next target while Alfie Flits could run at Kelso before going for a novice event at Aintree in April.
It was interesting to hear Paul Nicholls explain that he has had to 'build Denman up' after his operation; the horse has clearly been quite ill. The acid test will come in the Aon Chase at Newbury, although this evening I note he also has an entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown on February 8th.
The credit crunch is biting - Great Leighs racecourse is now in the hands of administators and the signs don't look encouraging.
Cheltenham's Trials meeting this weekend should prove informative with the Festival just around the corner - let's hope the weather plays its part.
Mrs Tips has been unusually quiet at home the last couple of days - I even managed to get away with something yesterday. I suspect it has something to do with the fact the BBC are to show all Andy Murray's Australian Open matches on terrestrial TV...
Labels:
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Ascot, Haydock & Wincanton
Master Minded is the star attraction in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot tomorrow; it's a race to savour. The current Triumph hurdle favourite Zaynar starts in the opener - his performance will be scrutinised closely with the Cheltenham Festival just over seven weeks away. On paper the Montpelier Group Lightning Novices' Chase at 1.40 looks to be between Free World and Calgary Bay; both horses feature prominently in the Arkle betting. Calgary Bay came on the scene last time out by beating Kicks For Free with some authority over two miles five at Cheltenham, while Free World was pipped at the post by Araldur in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown. On official handicap ratings Free World is the one to beat and in addition he receives six pounds from Calgary Bay; connections of Calgary Bay had hoped to get McCoy for their mount - who doesn't look the easiest of rides - but the champion goes to Haydock instead. Free World has to be the selection. I won't be getting involved in the 1.05 but I'd be wary of Serabad who, to my mind, runs his best races with plenty of give underfoot while the booking of Ruby Walsh for Kawagino catches the eye. In the mares' race at 2.50 United will be popular as she is some way clear of her rivals on official ratings but she has never won over this distance and connections have stated publicly that her target is a race at the Festival; there's also the possibility she may 'bounce' after her latest run which followed a long layoff. The finale is a hot novice hurdle and should provide some useful pointers for the future.
Two weeks ago the Tolworth was abandoned at Sandown on account of the weather but three of the protagonists turn out at Haydock tomorrow for the Rossington Main. Dee Ee Williams was my Tolworth fancy and I'm sticking with him here - he's the top-rated horse. Mahonia was a little disappointing at Cheltenham last time while Nicky Henderson's Clay Hollister could easily improve to test the selection. Connections won't want too much rain overnight for Snap Tie in the Champion Hurdle trial where I think Songe has place prospects. The Peter Marsh looks tricky. Cloudy Lane is coming into form but isn't the biggest of horses and may struggle to carry top weight on soft ground. If I get involved I'll take a chance with Alan King's Kandjar D'Allier who is getting a little long in the tooth these days but likes Haydock and often runs well following a break. In the novice chase at 3.00 Massini's Maguire wouldn't want any more rain while on official ratings Wind Instrument is bang there with a chance - provided his jumping holds out.
At Wincanton Pepite De Soleil should take the opener but will be no price at all. The Connaught Cup at 3.45 has £40,000 added prize money and looks suitably competitive. The one at the top of the handicap, Hennessy, will do for me. On the down side he has to carry top weight on soft ground and he has limited chase experience but he's a big horse who appeals as an unexposed type and comes from a stable in form.
Two weeks ago the Tolworth was abandoned at Sandown on account of the weather but three of the protagonists turn out at Haydock tomorrow for the Rossington Main. Dee Ee Williams was my Tolworth fancy and I'm sticking with him here - he's the top-rated horse. Mahonia was a little disappointing at Cheltenham last time while Nicky Henderson's Clay Hollister could easily improve to test the selection. Connections won't want too much rain overnight for Snap Tie in the Champion Hurdle trial where I think Songe has place prospects. The Peter Marsh looks tricky. Cloudy Lane is coming into form but isn't the biggest of horses and may struggle to carry top weight on soft ground. If I get involved I'll take a chance with Alan King's Kandjar D'Allier who is getting a little long in the tooth these days but likes Haydock and often runs well following a break. In the novice chase at 3.00 Massini's Maguire wouldn't want any more rain while on official ratings Wind Instrument is bang there with a chance - provided his jumping holds out.
At Wincanton Pepite De Soleil should take the opener but will be no price at all. The Connaught Cup at 3.45 has £40,000 added prize money and looks suitably competitive. The one at the top of the handicap, Hennessy, will do for me. On the down side he has to carry top weight on soft ground and he has limited chase experience but he's a big horse who appeals as an unexposed type and comes from a stable in form.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
PG's predictions
The trouble with this game is that it's all about what's going to happen in the future. I thought I'd share with you some of the things I think we could see come to pass in 2009...
Having taken the decision to leave Timeform after thirty five years, Jim McGrath tells anyone who'll listen that he's only just discovered the existence of different types of books other than form books; he's looking to develop a penchant for thrillers and romances.
The cold snap threatens to last through to March. With the Festival under threat from frost, the Cheltenham executive refuse to employ covers on the track, claiming any decision to go ahead with such measures would make no commercial sense whatsoever.
Putting up four pounds overweight, Hayley Turner rides Barbers Shop to a surprise Gold Cup victory for the Queen, pipping Ruby Walsh on Kauto Star by a long-looking short head.
Harry Findlay walks into a Ladbrokes shop in the East End looking to back Denman to win this year's National; he wants £10 on @ 8/1. After a phonecall to head office, the shop assistant tells him he can have £2 @ 8s and the rest at 6/1. All hell breaks loose.
Kieren Fallon makes the final of the John Smith's People's Race but in a driving finish is pipped at the post by a thirteen and a half stone spot welder who originates from Scunthorpe.
Worried about Channel 4's long-term commitment to racing, Mike Cattermole decides to branch out and lands himself a lucrative contract promoting 'Just For Men' hair products.
And finally, Tony McCoy wins The Derby.
Having taken the decision to leave Timeform after thirty five years, Jim McGrath tells anyone who'll listen that he's only just discovered the existence of different types of books other than form books; he's looking to develop a penchant for thrillers and romances.
The cold snap threatens to last through to March. With the Festival under threat from frost, the Cheltenham executive refuse to employ covers on the track, claiming any decision to go ahead with such measures would make no commercial sense whatsoever.
Putting up four pounds overweight, Hayley Turner rides Barbers Shop to a surprise Gold Cup victory for the Queen, pipping Ruby Walsh on Kauto Star by a long-looking short head.
Harry Findlay walks into a Ladbrokes shop in the East End looking to back Denman to win this year's National; he wants £10 on @ 8/1. After a phonecall to head office, the shop assistant tells him he can have £2 @ 8s and the rest at 6/1. All hell breaks loose.
Kieren Fallon makes the final of the John Smith's People's Race but in a driving finish is pipped at the post by a thirteen and a half stone spot welder who originates from Scunthorpe.
Worried about Channel 4's long-term commitment to racing, Mike Cattermole decides to branch out and lands himself a lucrative contract promoting 'Just For Men' hair products.
And finally, Tony McCoy wins The Derby.
Friday, January 09, 2009
Ayr on a Saturday
Warwick's biggest meeting of the year has been called off, Wetherby has a '50-50' chance while the donkey racing on Kempton sands makes little appeal. On the south west coast of Scotland there are no reported weather problems; if the meeting at Ayr goes ahead it will be the first turf meeting in Britain since January 2nd - the going is reported to be soft, heavy in places.
The feature race at 3.00 is the Blue Square Handicap Chase run over three miles one furlong. Malko De Beaumont has progressed well this season and is now rated some thirty pounds higher; off a reasonable weight he looks sure to go close. There was money for Gypsy George before the Welsh National but he ran no sort of race - if you forgive him that effort, he has to have a chance here. Jass looks a little unconvincing but at the bottom of the handicap I wouldn't totally dismiss Chopneyev. He's getting on a bit now but he's made the journey up from Adlestrop in the Cotswolds and represents an each-way wager at around 14/1. Several commentators put up Malko De Beaumont but I'll go out on a limb, hoping that Gypsy George consents to put his best foot forward.
In the novice chase at 2.00 Companero isn't one to take a short price about; if you're brave enough to oppose, Great Approach will be of interest.
The 1.25 is no foregone conclusion but Lie Forrit showed he stayed this distance on slightly better ground last time out and so gets the vote.
The feature race at 3.00 is the Blue Square Handicap Chase run over three miles one furlong. Malko De Beaumont has progressed well this season and is now rated some thirty pounds higher; off a reasonable weight he looks sure to go close. There was money for Gypsy George before the Welsh National but he ran no sort of race - if you forgive him that effort, he has to have a chance here. Jass looks a little unconvincing but at the bottom of the handicap I wouldn't totally dismiss Chopneyev. He's getting on a bit now but he's made the journey up from Adlestrop in the Cotswolds and represents an each-way wager at around 14/1. Several commentators put up Malko De Beaumont but I'll go out on a limb, hoping that Gypsy George consents to put his best foot forward.
In the novice chase at 2.00 Companero isn't one to take a short price about; if you're brave enough to oppose, Great Approach will be of interest.
The 1.25 is no foregone conclusion but Lie Forrit showed he stayed this distance on slightly better ground last time out and so gets the vote.
Monday, January 05, 2009
The big chill...
No jump racing in Great Britian over the weekend and today's all-weather card at Wolverhampton has, paradoxically, been lost to the weather! Tomorrow's card at Sedgefield is subject to an inspection at 8.30 am. Some meteorological forecasters predict more of the same right though until the beginning of next week - and I was half-thinking of going to Warwick this Saturday where the highlight is set to be the Classic Chase. With little action on course, the main talking point is Paul Nicholls' confirmation earlier today that Denman will go for the Grand National after running in this year's Gold Cup.
Friday, January 02, 2009
Sandown's Tolworth card
Should Sandown's card manage to beat the overnight frost, the highlight will be the Tolworth at 2.40. There are only six in the line-up which could result in a tactical affair and for this reason the race doesn't make that much appeal as a betting medium. Dee Ee Williams has a solid look and is the selection; for those choosing to oppose, I prefer Nicky Henderson's course and distance winner Clay Hollister to Mahonia who was a little disappointing when turned over at Cheltenham last time. Two quick notes - the favourite has won four of the last ten renewals and the Nicholls stable has a decent record in this having won with Breedsbreeze, Silverburn and Noland in recent years.
On official handicap ratings United is the top-rated animal by some margin in the opener. Returning from an eighteen month layoff the mare won well over this distance a fortnight ago at Haydock. There must be a fair chance she'll 'bounce' here as that looked a hard enough race; I'm tempted to chance Nicky Henderson's Shatabdi who has been novice chasing; she is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and son Sam takes the ride.
A couple of interesting runners in the two mile chase. J.P. McManus' Foreman is now with Jonjo O'Neill, Marodima used to be something of a talented tearaway when with Paul Nicholls and Nick Gifford's useful gelding Killaghy Castle makes a comeback having been off the track for 631 days. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on six of the last seven renewals. If I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in Hoo La Baloo at 12/1; Paul Nicholls' charge likes it around here, Nick Schofield takes off a handy-looking five pounds and the horse deserves to win a decent race. Having said all that, it's no surprise to see his stablemate Medicinal installed as favourite in the early tissue shows.
Helium carries a penalty but looks the one to beat in the 1.35.
On official handicap ratings United is the top-rated animal by some margin in the opener. Returning from an eighteen month layoff the mare won well over this distance a fortnight ago at Haydock. There must be a fair chance she'll 'bounce' here as that looked a hard enough race; I'm tempted to chance Nicky Henderson's Shatabdi who has been novice chasing; she is owned by Robert Waley-Cohen and son Sam takes the ride.
A couple of interesting runners in the two mile chase. J.P. McManus' Foreman is now with Jonjo O'Neill, Marodima used to be something of a talented tearaway when with Paul Nicholls and Nick Gifford's useful gelding Killaghy Castle makes a comeback having been off the track for 631 days. The market has proved a reliable guide in the past with the winner coming from the first three in the betting on six of the last seven renewals. If I get involved I'll have a small each-way interest in Hoo La Baloo at 12/1; Paul Nicholls' charge likes it around here, Nick Schofield takes off a handy-looking five pounds and the horse deserves to win a decent race. Having said all that, it's no surprise to see his stablemate Medicinal installed as favourite in the early tissue shows.
Helium carries a penalty but looks the one to beat in the 1.35.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Cheltenham on New Year's Day
I always like to start the new year off with a winner but, more often than not, I fail miserably. Still, I'm not going to let that small point of order prevent me from trying my luck in 2009. If Cheltenham manages to beat the predicted frost, I'll take a chance with Tartak against Kicks For Free in the Dipper Novices' Chase at 1.40. Tartak was beaten by Gone To Lunch last time out; that one franked the form by winning again at Newbury on Monday - the step back in trip here shouldn't prove too much of a problem for the selection. Although it's a small field, it would be unwise to see this as a two horse affair. You can expect Calgary Bay to improve following his first run of the season while Howard Johnson's Kealshore Boy is highly-regarded and comes from a stable that's in excellent form. This contest should give us some pointers for the future.
Likely favourite Franchoek has struggled a little this term and is worth taking on in the 3.20; I'll be doing so with the top-rated No Refuge who put up a decent performance on his seasonal debut behind Pettifour at Wetherby. Maidstone Mixture and Lough Derg should ensure there's some early pace in the race.
Alexanderthegreat is getting on a little these days but has been in decent form recently for the Venetia Williams operation; he could repay each-way support in the Cheltenham Annual Pony Club Raceday Handicap Chase at 1.05.
On New Year's Eve, congratulations go to Hayley Turner who became the first woman jockey to ride a hundred winners in Britain in the course of a year. For future reference, the name of the beast on which she reached the landmark was Mullitovermaurice. With that, may I take this opportunity to wish all readers of this humble blog a happy and prosperous new year.
Likely favourite Franchoek has struggled a little this term and is worth taking on in the 3.20; I'll be doing so with the top-rated No Refuge who put up a decent performance on his seasonal debut behind Pettifour at Wetherby. Maidstone Mixture and Lough Derg should ensure there's some early pace in the race.
Alexanderthegreat is getting on a little these days but has been in decent form recently for the Venetia Williams operation; he could repay each-way support in the Cheltenham Annual Pony Club Raceday Handicap Chase at 1.05.
On New Year's Eve, congratulations go to Hayley Turner who became the first woman jockey to ride a hundred winners in Britain in the course of a year. For future reference, the name of the beast on which she reached the landmark was Mullitovermaurice. With that, may I take this opportunity to wish all readers of this humble blog a happy and prosperous new year.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Christmas review
Kauto Star's victory in a fast-run King George was most impressive; many of his rivals were taken clean off their feet. Paul Nicholls was clearly pumped up afterwards and used the post-race interviews to make a couple of points. We won't see Kauto out again before next March while Denman has Newbury's Aon Chase as his target.
I'm not certain how much store to put by Breedsbreeze's victory in the Feltham. The six novices put in some very dodgy jumping between them, the winner and favourite being the best of a poor bunch on the day. Market rival The Market Man made an absolute howler down the back straight that put an end to his chance. I'm not tempted by 10/1 this winner for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham as I wasn't totally convinced about him getting the three mile trip and his limited chasing experience to date has come in small fields. Gone To Lunch, who won today at Newbury, is priced at 16/1 for Cheltenham; he may not turn out to be the best horse in the field but his jumping should stand him in good stead.
On Saturday I thought two starts were worthy of comment. At Chepstow the starter let the runners go off any old how in the Future Champions Hurdle while in the Castleford Chase at Wetherby there were at least two or three jockeys riding speedy sorts who looked determined to get a 'flyer' and practically had their mounts galloping as the tapes went up; 7/2 favourite Calatagan was over twenty lengths off the pace at the first turn!
Diamond Harry won today's Challow Hurdle at Newbury without being extended; connections may take in one more race at Cheltenham towards the end of next month before going for the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Festival.
The prize awaiting the winner of the Weekender's Christmas crossword puzzle is dinner with Mick Fitzgerald. One thing is certain - should you win, you won't have to put in too much effort beforehand thinking about what you're going to talk about... Rumour has it second prize is a long weekend 'chez Fitz'.
I'm not certain how much store to put by Breedsbreeze's victory in the Feltham. The six novices put in some very dodgy jumping between them, the winner and favourite being the best of a poor bunch on the day. Market rival The Market Man made an absolute howler down the back straight that put an end to his chance. I'm not tempted by 10/1 this winner for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham as I wasn't totally convinced about him getting the three mile trip and his limited chasing experience to date has come in small fields. Gone To Lunch, who won today at Newbury, is priced at 16/1 for Cheltenham; he may not turn out to be the best horse in the field but his jumping should stand him in good stead.
On Saturday I thought two starts were worthy of comment. At Chepstow the starter let the runners go off any old how in the Future Champions Hurdle while in the Castleford Chase at Wetherby there were at least two or three jockeys riding speedy sorts who looked determined to get a 'flyer' and practically had their mounts galloping as the tapes went up; 7/2 favourite Calatagan was over twenty lengths off the pace at the first turn!
Diamond Harry won today's Challow Hurdle at Newbury without being extended; connections may take in one more race at Cheltenham towards the end of next month before going for the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Festival.
The prize awaiting the winner of the Weekender's Christmas crossword puzzle is dinner with Mick Fitzgerald. One thing is certain - should you win, you won't have to put in too much effort beforehand thinking about what you're going to talk about... Rumour has it second prize is a long weekend 'chez Fitz'.
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Friday, December 26, 2008
Chepstow, Kempton and Wetherby
Precautionary inspections have been called tomorrow morning at both Chepstow and Wetherby. The Welsh National is usually a slog in the mud over three and three quarter miles and this year looks no different. Of the twenty to go to post, four are set to carry eleven stone or more while the bottom seven entries have to carry more than their allocated long handicap weight; I'd be surprised if any of the top four win. There are some nice horses carrying a racing weight including Nenuphar Collonges and Mon Mome; it not a surprise to see these two at the head of the market. Of the two I prefer Mon Mome as he's a bigger price and the jockey can claim a valuable three pounds. His tussle with Star De Mohaison just a fortnight ago at Cheltenham is something of a concern. I'll keep an eye on how Darkness runs in this - he was a good horse, suffered an injury that kept him off the course for two and a half years but made a decent comeback at Haydock five weeks ago.
The 2.40 is pretty hot with the protagonists likely to be Simarian, Pepite De Soleil and Walkon. In a recent stable tour trainer Evan Williams indicated tough customer Simarian was being aimed as this, so he gets the nod ahead of the other two.
At Kempton Twist Magic sets a poser in the Desert Orchid Chase at 3.15. He's the top-rated animal and looked a big danger to eventual winner Master Minded when coming down two out in the Tingle Creek. If he runs to that level he can win, but he has disappointed too often in the past.. McCoy rides - every horse has his price and on value grounds alone I'll be tempted to play if he's priced at 5/2 or bigger. Connections of Starluck appear to have dodged the serious opposition by opting to run here rather than in Chepstow's 2.40; Starluck is the one to beat in the opener.
At Wetherby Pop steps up in class in the trappy-looking 2.30; if the ground were better I'd consider a wager but on this occasion I'll watch from the sidelines. In the Castleford Handicap Chase Moon Over Miami is talented but not guaranteed to perform. In the past he has allowed the preliminaries in the paddock to affect his performance on the track. The Racing post report he has recently had a wind operation and quote him at 6/1 in their tissue. In a race that is likely to be run to suit this hold-up performer, 6/1 would be of interest, especially if it turns out the operation has worked.
The 2.40 is pretty hot with the protagonists likely to be Simarian, Pepite De Soleil and Walkon. In a recent stable tour trainer Evan Williams indicated tough customer Simarian was being aimed as this, so he gets the nod ahead of the other two.
At Kempton Twist Magic sets a poser in the Desert Orchid Chase at 3.15. He's the top-rated animal and looked a big danger to eventual winner Master Minded when coming down two out in the Tingle Creek. If he runs to that level he can win, but he has disappointed too often in the past.. McCoy rides - every horse has his price and on value grounds alone I'll be tempted to play if he's priced at 5/2 or bigger. Connections of Starluck appear to have dodged the serious opposition by opting to run here rather than in Chepstow's 2.40; Starluck is the one to beat in the opener.
At Wetherby Pop steps up in class in the trappy-looking 2.30; if the ground were better I'd consider a wager but on this occasion I'll watch from the sidelines. In the Castleford Handicap Chase Moon Over Miami is talented but not guaranteed to perform. In the past he has allowed the preliminaries in the paddock to affect his performance on the track. The Racing post report he has recently had a wind operation and quote him at 6/1 in their tissue. In a race that is likely to be run to suit this hold-up performer, 6/1 would be of interest, especially if it turns out the operation has worked.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Boxing Day selection box
As always, the Boxing Day selections come with their customary health / wealth warning. It's Christmas Eve, I haven't had time to study much of the form, I've had one or two more sherberts than I should have, and Mrs Tips is bending my ear. If you're hoping to win the mortgage down your local track the day after tomorrow, that's not going to happen with these picks...
I've tried to come up with at least one selection at each of the jump meetings.
Kempton
1.30 The Market Man
2.05 Either Pierrot Lunaire or Snap Tie as a play against Punjabi
2.40 Kauto Star win, Snoopy Loopy each way
Wetherby
1.45 Marginally prefer Standin Obligation to Cloudy Lane as a play against Tidal Bay
Wincanton
1.15 Pride Of Dulcote
Huntingdon
12.20 Starburst Diamond
2.00 Victorias Groom
Towcester
1.25 Rate Of Knots
3.40 Neil Harvey
Market Rasen
2.25 Victory Gunner goes for his fourth consecutive win in the Lincolnshire National. I fear he may have a little too much weight this year but I'll be hoping he manages to pull it off.
Sedgefield
12.15 River Shanakill
12.45 Kings Maiden
2.55 Justwhateverulike
Merry Christmas everyone!
I've tried to come up with at least one selection at each of the jump meetings.
Kempton
1.30 The Market Man
2.05 Either Pierrot Lunaire or Snap Tie as a play against Punjabi
2.40 Kauto Star win, Snoopy Loopy each way
Wetherby
1.45 Marginally prefer Standin Obligation to Cloudy Lane as a play against Tidal Bay
Wincanton
1.15 Pride Of Dulcote
Huntingdon
12.20 Starburst Diamond
2.00 Victorias Groom
Towcester
1.25 Rate Of Knots
3.40 Neil Harvey
Market Rasen
2.25 Victory Gunner goes for his fourth consecutive win in the Lincolnshire National. I fear he may have a little too much weight this year but I'll be hoping he manages to pull it off.
Sedgefield
12.15 River Shanakill
12.45 Kings Maiden
2.55 Justwhateverulike
Merry Christmas everyone!
Labels:
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kempton,
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Christmas dilemmas
A few thoughts after quickly looking at the Boxing Day ante-post markets...
For the King George, Voy Por Ustedes is short enough given we don't know for certain whether he'll stay. On better ground Air Force One would have won the Hennessy; he's likely to get his ground here but regular jockey Noel Fehily misses the ride after breaking his collar bone in a fall at Fontwell yesterday. Just one win from the last thirty runs will be something of a concern for those thinking about backing either David Pipe or Nigel Twiston-Davies trained horses. Exotic Dancer is quoted at fancy prices but has only been left in as a precaution - the Lexus Chase in Ireland is his target. On Betfair Chase form there's not much between Snoopy Loopy and Tamarinbleu. With better steering on the jockey's part, Snoopy Loopy would have beaten Monet's Garden last time out over two and a half miles. Prior to that Huntingdon effort, I was concerned that Snoopy would get done for toe if he ran here on this flat track; now I think he represents decent each-way value. He's as tough as old boots but has been busy over the past weeks - I just hope this isn't one race too many. The bookies quote 33/1 Albertas Run but the horse is trading shorter on Betfair.
I think the Christmas Hurdle is more competitive than the market would indicate. Punjabi is the short-priced favourite; Paul Nicholls has issued an unusually bullish update about Pierrot Lunaire. Richard Johnson holds Snap Tie in very high regard while Straw Bear is a previous winner who hasn't really taken to chasing this term.
The Market Man is entered in the Feltham and jumped exceptionally well at Newbury last time; he's not one to take on lightly.
Up at Wetherby connections have entered last season's Arkle winner Tidal Bay in the three mile one furlong Rowland Meyrick. Trading at around 6/4 he's worth opposing as he's not guaranteed to stay and his jumping hasn't been flawless in the past - I think the fences at Wetherby are amongst the stiffest in the country. State Of Play won the Charlie Hall here early in November but at the weights he was entitled to and he only just got home ahead of Ollie Magern. I've had burnt fingers with State Of Play before; at this stage I'm unsure. Two I'll look at in greater detail are Nozic and Cloudy Lane. Standin Obligation also enters calculations but he was inconsistent when with David Pipe - perhaps the change of stable has proved beneficial.
For the King George, Voy Por Ustedes is short enough given we don't know for certain whether he'll stay. On better ground Air Force One would have won the Hennessy; he's likely to get his ground here but regular jockey Noel Fehily misses the ride after breaking his collar bone in a fall at Fontwell yesterday. Just one win from the last thirty runs will be something of a concern for those thinking about backing either David Pipe or Nigel Twiston-Davies trained horses. Exotic Dancer is quoted at fancy prices but has only been left in as a precaution - the Lexus Chase in Ireland is his target. On Betfair Chase form there's not much between Snoopy Loopy and Tamarinbleu. With better steering on the jockey's part, Snoopy Loopy would have beaten Monet's Garden last time out over two and a half miles. Prior to that Huntingdon effort, I was concerned that Snoopy would get done for toe if he ran here on this flat track; now I think he represents decent each-way value. He's as tough as old boots but has been busy over the past weeks - I just hope this isn't one race too many. The bookies quote 33/1 Albertas Run but the horse is trading shorter on Betfair.
I think the Christmas Hurdle is more competitive than the market would indicate. Punjabi is the short-priced favourite; Paul Nicholls has issued an unusually bullish update about Pierrot Lunaire. Richard Johnson holds Snap Tie in very high regard while Straw Bear is a previous winner who hasn't really taken to chasing this term.
The Market Man is entered in the Feltham and jumped exceptionally well at Newbury last time; he's not one to take on lightly.
Up at Wetherby connections have entered last season's Arkle winner Tidal Bay in the three mile one furlong Rowland Meyrick. Trading at around 6/4 he's worth opposing as he's not guaranteed to stay and his jumping hasn't been flawless in the past - I think the fences at Wetherby are amongst the stiffest in the country. State Of Play won the Charlie Hall here early in November but at the weights he was entitled to and he only just got home ahead of Ollie Magern. I've had burnt fingers with State Of Play before; at this stage I'm unsure. Two I'll look at in greater detail are Nozic and Cloudy Lane. Standin Obligation also enters calculations but he was inconsistent when with David Pipe - perhaps the change of stable has proved beneficial.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Festive fare
The only thing that makes Christmas half-bearable is the racing on Boxing Day. Last night somebody who clearly has little regard for their own money asked me for an each-way outsider in the King George; I came up with 20/1 chance Snoopy Loopy. I figured if connections have stumped up £10k to supplement the horse, they must think it has some sort of chance. Previous King George winner and current favourite Kauto Star will generate plenty of press interest. However his stablemate and Gold Cup winner Denman has a surprise entry in the 2.55 hurdle race at Wincanton on the same day; teletext reports a decision regarding his participation will be taken on Tuesday. In the meantime, if you're in desperate need of rescue from the whole horror of Christmas, I recommend ploughing through the Boxing Day declarations to see if you can spot a cunning plot; should you happen to stumble upon one, please let me know.
Many will think that within the space of half an hour at Ascot on Saturday they saw the next Champion and World Hurdle winners in Binocular and Punchestowns. After winning on Binocular McCoy had a dig at the BBC's proposed coverage cuts with a quip that the only chance viewers would have to see the horse again would be on Top Gear.
A couple of midweek results caught my eye. Bannister Lane bounced back to form to win the three and three quarter mile handicap chase at Bangor on Wednesday while Ron Hodges' Dream Falcon was backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 before taking the two and a half mile novices' handicap chase at Ludlow on Thursday. At Ascot on Friday Medermit and Dee Ee Williams fought out a thrilling finish but perhaps the horse to note was Wendel who had every chance coming to the last; that form represents a big improvement on his previous two wins at Plumpton. Quoting Charlie Mann in the Weekender - "I have some very nice novice hurdlers this season and I think he could be the best of them." Earlier in the season Black Jacari was touted as a possible Triumph Hurdle hope but the horse has patently failed to deliver; he runs with first-time blinkers applied in a Class 4 juvenile novice hurdle at Hereford tomorrow.
It might be Christmas but the press still likes nothing better than a bad news story - they've been hinitng for a few weeks now that ten household High Street names are in danger of going to the wall in 2009. I wonder if William Hill is one of those ten names. And, finally, a phrase to strike fear into the heart of any sports administrator is 'suspicious betting patterns'. Last week snooker came under the spotlight...
Many will think that within the space of half an hour at Ascot on Saturday they saw the next Champion and World Hurdle winners in Binocular and Punchestowns. After winning on Binocular McCoy had a dig at the BBC's proposed coverage cuts with a quip that the only chance viewers would have to see the horse again would be on Top Gear.
A couple of midweek results caught my eye. Bannister Lane bounced back to form to win the three and three quarter mile handicap chase at Bangor on Wednesday while Ron Hodges' Dream Falcon was backed in from 20/1 to 7/1 before taking the two and a half mile novices' handicap chase at Ludlow on Thursday. At Ascot on Friday Medermit and Dee Ee Williams fought out a thrilling finish but perhaps the horse to note was Wendel who had every chance coming to the last; that form represents a big improvement on his previous two wins at Plumpton. Quoting Charlie Mann in the Weekender - "I have some very nice novice hurdlers this season and I think he could be the best of them." Earlier in the season Black Jacari was touted as a possible Triumph Hurdle hope but the horse has patently failed to deliver; he runs with first-time blinkers applied in a Class 4 juvenile novice hurdle at Hereford tomorrow.
It might be Christmas but the press still likes nothing better than a bad news story - they've been hinitng for a few weeks now that ten household High Street names are in danger of going to the wall in 2009. I wonder if William Hill is one of those ten names. And, finally, a phrase to strike fear into the heart of any sports administrator is 'suspicious betting patterns'. Last week snooker came under the spotlight...
Labels:
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bangor on dee,
boxing day,
hereford,
king george,
ludlow,
snooker,
william hill
Friday, December 19, 2008
Ascot on Saturday
Following the midweek decision to re-schedule the Boylesports International to a card that already boasts the Long Walk Hurdle and the Ladbroke, a spokesman was quoted as saying, in typically understated fashion, that this was 'probably the greatest day's hurdling ever seen'.
Your view on the Long Walk will depend on your interpretation of the Long Distance Hurdle ran at Newbury three weeks ago. To my mind, the race was run at a muddling pace and things looked to fall just right for Duke De Regniere; on the walk back to the winners' enclosure that day, McCoy practically said as much in a TV interview. McCoy retains the ride tomorrow and perhaps surprisingly the horse is pushing for favouritism. Those behind who are likely to fancy their chances tomorrow include Mobaasher, Pettifour, Blazing Bailey and Hills Of Aran. After looking through the form earlier in the week, I'm convinced Mobaasher isn't the easiest ride while the top-rated Blazing Bailey often throws in a poor jump - his effort at the penultimate flight at Newbury probably put paid to his chance. In addition there's some discussion as to whether blinkers have helped in the past - they're been left off here. Hills Of Aran is 66/1 in places which is big - the horse has an each-way squeak in my book. Both Serabad and Punchestowns, who won with any amount in hand last time at Cheltenham, may have difficulty with this trip. I prefer something I know will stay and so side with Twiston-Davies' charge Pettifour. I like this horse and the trainer has been quite bullish in the build-up. Whatever happens, we should have a race to remember.
Only five in the re-arranged International and it could turn into a tactical affair; Celestial Halo likes to race prominently. Using official handicap ratings as a guide, Katchit is the one they have to beat while there doesn't look much between Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack. I would have preferred the race to have been at Cheltenham for Katchit but at around 9/2 the current champion hurdler looks value against the current champion hurdle favourite Binocular.
A token each-way selection at a price for the Ladbroke - Irish Legend has a racing weight and comes to this in good form.
Your view on the Long Walk will depend on your interpretation of the Long Distance Hurdle ran at Newbury three weeks ago. To my mind, the race was run at a muddling pace and things looked to fall just right for Duke De Regniere; on the walk back to the winners' enclosure that day, McCoy practically said as much in a TV interview. McCoy retains the ride tomorrow and perhaps surprisingly the horse is pushing for favouritism. Those behind who are likely to fancy their chances tomorrow include Mobaasher, Pettifour, Blazing Bailey and Hills Of Aran. After looking through the form earlier in the week, I'm convinced Mobaasher isn't the easiest ride while the top-rated Blazing Bailey often throws in a poor jump - his effort at the penultimate flight at Newbury probably put paid to his chance. In addition there's some discussion as to whether blinkers have helped in the past - they're been left off here. Hills Of Aran is 66/1 in places which is big - the horse has an each-way squeak in my book. Both Serabad and Punchestowns, who won with any amount in hand last time at Cheltenham, may have difficulty with this trip. I prefer something I know will stay and so side with Twiston-Davies' charge Pettifour. I like this horse and the trainer has been quite bullish in the build-up. Whatever happens, we should have a race to remember.
Only five in the re-arranged International and it could turn into a tactical affair; Celestial Halo likes to race prominently. Using official handicap ratings as a guide, Katchit is the one they have to beat while there doesn't look much between Chomba Womba and Crack Away Jack. I would have preferred the race to have been at Cheltenham for Katchit but at around 9/2 the current champion hurdler looks value against the current champion hurdle favourite Binocular.
A token each-way selection at a price for the Ladbroke - Irish Legend has a racing weight and comes to this in good form.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Friday at Ascot
The Mitie Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle looks the best race of its type so far this season; I don't think I'll get involved but the outcome should prove useful for future reference. I like Dee Ee Williams - the yard is in good form at the moment - but Bergo has a seven pound pull at the weights for the half length beating last time. Since moving to Sheena West's the four year old Golan Way reamins unbeaten. He had some decent sorts behind at Cheltenham recently when making all - that's the way he likes to race but that may leave him vulnerable here. Howard Johnson's Door Boy has finished second to the smart Diamond Harry while Paul Nicholls' Shamari could be anything; this looks an enthralling race.
Deep Purple poses something of a conundrum in the novice chase at 2.30. He didn't jump too well on his debut over fences at Wetherby but made amends last time out at Taunton. Will he handle Ascot's tougher obstacles? Naiad du Misselot has smart form behind Palomar to his name but the percentage call looks to be Buck The Legend. The doubt is the stable form - Twiston-Davies emerged from a spell without a winner when Tricky Trickster obliged at Newbury yesterday (Wednesday).
Deep Purple poses something of a conundrum in the novice chase at 2.30. He didn't jump too well on his debut over fences at Wetherby but made amends last time out at Taunton. Will he handle Ascot's tougher obstacles? Naiad du Misselot has smart form behind Palomar to his name but the percentage call looks to be Buck The Legend. The doubt is the stable form - Twiston-Davies emerged from a spell without a winner when Tricky Trickster obliged at Newbury yesterday (Wednesday).
Monday, December 15, 2008
Weekend washout
The Saturday cards at both Cheltenham and Lingfield were abandoned due to heavy overnight rain. Racing went ahead at Doncaster where the finale had been selected as the 'bonus' race for the two Scoop6 punters hoping to share over £1.6 million. Their chances looked to have increased significantly with the withdrawal of three runners on account of the going, leaving a field of just nine from which to make their two picks. Ray Stubbs and Lawrence Ireland chose Duke of Touraine (6/1) and Riguez Dancer (4/1). Up the home straight both horses were in a group of three that pulled away from the rest; Duke of Touraine looked to go half a length up on Charlie Crab (12/1) after the last but on the long run to the line the outsider fought back tenaciously next to the running rail to win by half a length. Both punters took it all very well really considering Channel Four insisted on repeatedly replaying the finish. The Tote estimate the bonus fund for Saturday December 27th will top £2 million; to be in with a chance of winning it, you just have to select six winners on Saturday...
Efforts were being made today to re-schedule the Boylesports International Hurdle to Ascot this weekend - at the moment it doesn't look as though those efforts have been successful. The unbeaten Diamond Harry, an entry in the cancelled Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, now has the Challow Hurdle at Newbury as his target.
Today's Racing Post leads with an article that compares the BBC's commitment to racing a decade ago with its plans for the coming decade. Ten years ago 79 days of racing were scheduled to be covered; from 2010 the BBC intend to broadcast just 14 days. Of course, the other terrestrial broadcaster, Channel Four, is known to have serious financial problems and may be taken over by Channel Five.
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2008 is Olympic cyclist Chris Hoy. I certainly enjoyed last night's programme; nonetheless it still remains a source of wonder to me how the racing year can be summarised in thirty seconds flat.
Comment on a Christmas card, recently received: 'Went to Chepstow last month; seen better horses on Blackpool beach.'
Finally, is anybody else having difficulty finding what they want on the new Racing Post website...?
Efforts were being made today to re-schedule the Boylesports International Hurdle to Ascot this weekend - at the moment it doesn't look as though those efforts have been successful. The unbeaten Diamond Harry, an entry in the cancelled Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle, now has the Challow Hurdle at Newbury as his target.
Today's Racing Post leads with an article that compares the BBC's commitment to racing a decade ago with its plans for the coming decade. Ten years ago 79 days of racing were scheduled to be covered; from 2010 the BBC intend to broadcast just 14 days. Of course, the other terrestrial broadcaster, Channel Four, is known to have serious financial problems and may be taken over by Channel Five.
BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2008 is Olympic cyclist Chris Hoy. I certainly enjoyed last night's programme; nonetheless it still remains a source of wonder to me how the racing year can be summarised in thirty seconds flat.
Comment on a Christmas card, recently received: 'Went to Chepstow last month; seen better horses on Blackpool beach.'
Finally, is anybody else having difficulty finding what they want on the new Racing Post website...?
Friday, December 12, 2008
Cheltenham - Saturday's Boylesports meeting
Unsurprisingly Imperial Commander is favourite for the day's feature race, the Boylesports Gold Cup, on the back of his impressive victory in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over course and distance a month ago. The Twiston-Davies inmate is my idea of the winner but everybody else has the same idea with the result he's no real value in the market. Some commentators oppose with Silverburn but, as I've said before on this blog, I'm not particularly keen - he has disappointed on a number of occasions so, in search of some value, I'll chance Tom Taaffe's Finger Onthe Pulse who's priced up at around 7/1.
From a betting point of view the International at 3.05 is much more interesting. Current champion hurdle favourite Binocular heads this market but there are some classy opponents in the field including the current champion hurdler. In the past ten renewals the jolly has won five times but on the other occasions a relatively unfancied horse has taken the prize; I remember backing Geos at 14/1 to win this when it was known as the Bula. The game mare Chomba Womba beat Crack Away Jack last time out at Ascot and the pair reoppose on similar terms here; on balance I think Crack Away Jack will reverse the form and that view is taken by the bookies who make the chestnut gelding a 4/1 shot while the mare is 6/1. Those who have opposed Katchit this season have be on good terms with themselves but trainer Alan King issued an upbeat update during the week with the result that the champion's price for this has shortened to 9/2 in places. At the time of writing Hills still go 5/1 Katchit - at that price he has to be worth an interest.
Anyone who saw Punchestowns win here last month will know why the horse is set to be sent off a short-priced favourite for the Relkeel Hurdle at 1.20. Having said that, I'm going to take a chance with Peter Bowen's Serabad. This horse won at Aintree three weeks ago when thought to be in need of the run. The trainer reports his charge has made plenty of improvement since but, using official ratings as a guide, he will need every ounce of that improvement to be competitive against this favourite. The softer the ground, the better it will suit the selection.
On official ratings Starluck is the one to beat in the opener while the finale appears between Massasoit and Diamond Harry. Both horses have yet to race over three miles in public; Massasoit is top-rated and gets the vote.
Addendum - I've just noticed that Henry Daly runs Pop in the 12.30 at Doncaster. Last time out this horse was in the process of giving Shining Gale a run for his money in a beginners' chase at Ludlow when coming to grief four out. Since then Shining Gale has gone on to win a Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham by over twenty lengths. If his price is in double figures tomorrow morning, I'll consider an each-way interest.
From a betting point of view the International at 3.05 is much more interesting. Current champion hurdle favourite Binocular heads this market but there are some classy opponents in the field including the current champion hurdler. In the past ten renewals the jolly has won five times but on the other occasions a relatively unfancied horse has taken the prize; I remember backing Geos at 14/1 to win this when it was known as the Bula. The game mare Chomba Womba beat Crack Away Jack last time out at Ascot and the pair reoppose on similar terms here; on balance I think Crack Away Jack will reverse the form and that view is taken by the bookies who make the chestnut gelding a 4/1 shot while the mare is 6/1. Those who have opposed Katchit this season have be on good terms with themselves but trainer Alan King issued an upbeat update during the week with the result that the champion's price for this has shortened to 9/2 in places. At the time of writing Hills still go 5/1 Katchit - at that price he has to be worth an interest.
Anyone who saw Punchestowns win here last month will know why the horse is set to be sent off a short-priced favourite for the Relkeel Hurdle at 1.20. Having said that, I'm going to take a chance with Peter Bowen's Serabad. This horse won at Aintree three weeks ago when thought to be in need of the run. The trainer reports his charge has made plenty of improvement since but, using official ratings as a guide, he will need every ounce of that improvement to be competitive against this favourite. The softer the ground, the better it will suit the selection.
On official ratings Starluck is the one to beat in the opener while the finale appears between Massasoit and Diamond Harry. Both horses have yet to race over three miles in public; Massasoit is top-rated and gets the vote.
Addendum - I've just noticed that Henry Daly runs Pop in the 12.30 at Doncaster. Last time out this horse was in the process of giving Shining Gale a run for his money in a beginners' chase at Ludlow when coming to grief four out. Since then Shining Gale has gone on to win a Class 2 novice chase at Cheltenham by over twenty lengths. If his price is in double figures tomorrow morning, I'll consider an each-way interest.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Cheltenham - quick notes for Friday
In the opener I wouldn't want to take too short a price about Ballyfitz. Sir Alex Ferguson owns a share in What A Friend - I wonder if he'll be at the course.
Following Dix Villez's controversial three length defeat of Garde Champetre over course and distance last time out, the layout for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.20) has been modified. Garde Champetre aims for compensation here and is likely to be in the shake-up.
Simon looked as though he'd come on for the run on his seasonal debut here four weeks ago and should go well in the 1.55. The Sporting Life's early tissue prices him at 12/1 which represents reasonable each-way value. Having been found lame in his box on the morning of the Hennessy, Character Building comes to this a fresh horse and is bound to be popular.
Gloucester runs in the 3.05 and is one I like who appeared a little unfortunate last time out. Priced up at 33/1, he was brought down two out while making stealthy headway from the rear in the race won by Sunnyhillboy at the track last month - of course, the odds are likely to be considerably shorter tomorrow...
In the finale I'd consider a speculative each-way wager at a price on What A Buzz. His chance will improve with soft / testing ground and the McCain stable are currently in decent form.
Finally you have to take your hat off to Ruby Walsh who returns to the saddle tomorrow after having his spleen removed following a fall from Pride Of Dulcote four weeks ago, and Cheltenham are taking every precaution to ensure the meeting can beat the frost.
Following Dix Villez's controversial three length defeat of Garde Champetre over course and distance last time out, the layout for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (1.20) has been modified. Garde Champetre aims for compensation here and is likely to be in the shake-up.
Simon looked as though he'd come on for the run on his seasonal debut here four weeks ago and should go well in the 1.55. The Sporting Life's early tissue prices him at 12/1 which represents reasonable each-way value. Having been found lame in his box on the morning of the Hennessy, Character Building comes to this a fresh horse and is bound to be popular.
Gloucester runs in the 3.05 and is one I like who appeared a little unfortunate last time out. Priced up at 33/1, he was brought down two out while making stealthy headway from the rear in the race won by Sunnyhillboy at the track last month - of course, the odds are likely to be considerably shorter tomorrow...
In the finale I'd consider a speculative each-way wager at a price on What A Buzz. His chance will improve with soft / testing ground and the McCain stable are currently in decent form.
Finally you have to take your hat off to Ruby Walsh who returns to the saddle tomorrow after having his spleen removed following a fall from Pride Of Dulcote four weeks ago, and Cheltenham are taking every precaution to ensure the meeting can beat the frost.
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