Thursday, July 31, 2008
Racing's Panorama
Last night's hour-long Panorama special, 'Racing's Dirty Secrets', looked decidedly thin on new content. After forty minutes I checked my TV schedules, just to make sure I wasn't unwittingly watching another of the Corporation's summer repeats. The BBC claim new evidence has been brought to light concerning Miles Rodgers. Whatever happens, the programme had the air of an extended exercise in mischief-making. In my opinion, a typical ITV production...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Footnotes
Fifteen Group 1 victories for Ballydoyle this season and we haven't seen the end of July yet!
In the paddock before Duke Of Marmalade's victory in the King George, the BBC commentators pounced on Formula One supremo Bernie Ecclestone whose wife (Mrs Ecclestone, apparently) owns Petara Bay. Mr Ecclestone looked like a fish out of water as first Claire Balding and then Willie Carson fired numerous questions at him. Willie's approach to shake hands with the great man was so disconcerting, Mr Ecclestone dropped from his sweaty palm the two pound coin he had been clutching throughout the preliminaries and was determined to invest on his wife's horse; in that very instance bookmakers shortened the odds on Petara Bay from 100/1 to 66/1...
Five days of top-class racing start at the Glorious Goodwood meeting on Tuesday. Highlights include the Sussex Stakes, the Goodwood Cup, the Nassau Stakes and the Stewards' Cup. On Wednesday the course is to honour Sir Peter O'Sullevan who celebrates his 90th birthday this year. On the same day, at 9.00pm, BBC1 transmits an hour-long Panorama special entitled 'Racing's Dirty Secrets'.
Yesterday I came across a copy of Andrew Longmore's Kieren Fallon: The Biography. It's the first racing book I've felt compelled to read in a long while. Amazon currently gives two possible dates for publication of the paperback edition- 17th July 2008 and 5th February 2009.
The hottest weekend of the year and in the post I receive literature from Aintree racecourse encouraging purchase of tickets for the 2009 Grand National. Talking of the winter game, I noticed Woolworths offering Waddingtons 'Escalado' racing game at the knockdown price of £8.00. I am going to buy one - it will help dispel some of the disappointment friends tend to experience when their much-anticipated trip to the races has to be cancelled due to inclement weather.
In the paddock before Duke Of Marmalade's victory in the King George, the BBC commentators pounced on Formula One supremo Bernie Ecclestone whose wife (Mrs Ecclestone, apparently) owns Petara Bay. Mr Ecclestone looked like a fish out of water as first Claire Balding and then Willie Carson fired numerous questions at him. Willie's approach to shake hands with the great man was so disconcerting, Mr Ecclestone dropped from his sweaty palm the two pound coin he had been clutching throughout the preliminaries and was determined to invest on his wife's horse; in that very instance bookmakers shortened the odds on Petara Bay from 100/1 to 66/1...
Five days of top-class racing start at the Glorious Goodwood meeting on Tuesday. Highlights include the Sussex Stakes, the Goodwood Cup, the Nassau Stakes and the Stewards' Cup. On Wednesday the course is to honour Sir Peter O'Sullevan who celebrates his 90th birthday this year. On the same day, at 9.00pm, BBC1 transmits an hour-long Panorama special entitled 'Racing's Dirty Secrets'.
Yesterday I came across a copy of Andrew Longmore's Kieren Fallon: The Biography. It's the first racing book I've felt compelled to read in a long while. Amazon currently gives two possible dates for publication of the paperback edition- 17th July 2008 and 5th February 2009.
The hottest weekend of the year and in the post I receive literature from Aintree racecourse encouraging purchase of tickets for the 2009 Grand National. Talking of the winter game, I noticed Woolworths offering Waddingtons 'Escalado' racing game at the knockdown price of £8.00. I am going to buy one - it will help dispel some of the disappointment friends tend to experience when their much-anticipated trip to the races has to be cancelled due to inclement weather.
Friday, July 25, 2008
Ascot, York and Salisbury
Just eight runners are declared for tomorrow's King George at Ascot. Three of the eight come from Ballydoyle; Macarthur is entitled to take his chance but stablemate Duke Of Marmalade will go off favourite, with Red Rock Canyon being employed as the pacemaker. Duke Of Marmalade won the Prince of Wales's Stakes at the Royal Ascot meeting five weeks ago but this is his first try at a mile and a half - we don't know for certain whether he'll stay but his style of running suggests he should. Favourites have a good record in this, having won six times in the last decade but at the prices available, I'm going to look elsewhere. The two most likely to upset the applecart are Youmzain and Lucarno. In the Weekender Nick Mordin favours Lucarno but I'm going to side with Mick Channon's Youmzain who was second to Dylan Thomas last year in both this race and the Arc. The use of a pacemaker will suit this horse and if I have a concern, it's that his top-drawer form has tended to come with some cut in the ground; 3/1 is generally available and seems fair.
The big race at York is the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. Dettori rides Ascot better than most but, with the Godolphin operation going through a lean spell, it speaks volumes that his employers send him here to ride Campanologist. That doesn't ring a bell for me though (apologies) as Pipedreamer would appear to have four pounds in hand over his rival on Eclipse form. Tajaaweed was a tad disappointing in finishing eighth in the Derby but he suffered a slight setback a couple of days before the race and poses a live threat here. It's a close call but I note that John Gosden's stable is flying at the moment while Sir Michael Stoute's is particularly quiet - Pipedreamer is top-rated by the Racing Post and gets the vote.
Finally, for those with more money than they know what to do with, Roger Charlton's Oarsman, sporting first-time blinkers, looks the one to beat in the 7.40 maiden at Salisbury.
The big race at York is the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. Dettori rides Ascot better than most but, with the Godolphin operation going through a lean spell, it speaks volumes that his employers send him here to ride Campanologist. That doesn't ring a bell for me though (apologies) as Pipedreamer would appear to have four pounds in hand over his rival on Eclipse form. Tajaaweed was a tad disappointing in finishing eighth in the Derby but he suffered a slight setback a couple of days before the race and poses a live threat here. It's a close call but I note that John Gosden's stable is flying at the moment while Sir Michael Stoute's is particularly quiet - Pipedreamer is top-rated by the Racing Post and gets the vote.
Finally, for those with more money than they know what to do with, Roger Charlton's Oarsman, sporting first-time blinkers, looks the one to beat in the 7.40 maiden at Salisbury.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
A Salisbury soiree
People have started asking about my new shoes. It looks like a long job; I'd hope to have them broken in for Newbury's Hennessy meeting at the end of November.
You know, it really is such a long time since I've managed to get to the races - the best part of nine months. A couple of weeks back, I came up with a cunning plan. When I say 'cunning', it was only moderately cunning in a blokeish sort of a way, something any practised female would describe as 'naive' and would see through in an instant, which is exactly what Mrs Tips did. The fact I thought it cunning at least afforded me some small pleasure.
My daughter's school choir is on a trip to Salisbury Cathedral. I thought I could show a newly-discovered interest in choral singing by combining a visit to church with a trip out to the track - on either Tuesday afternoon or following evensong on Saturday. Of course, the whole idea was hopeless, transparent, a 66/1 shot in three horse race...
So, this Saturday afternoon, I'll be watching one of the Flat season highlights, the King George, on the television in my front room; after that I have Channel Four's Glorious Goodwood coverage to look forward to.
You know, it really is such a long time since I've managed to get to the races - the best part of nine months. A couple of weeks back, I came up with a cunning plan. When I say 'cunning', it was only moderately cunning in a blokeish sort of a way, something any practised female would describe as 'naive' and would see through in an instant, which is exactly what Mrs Tips did. The fact I thought it cunning at least afforded me some small pleasure.
My daughter's school choir is on a trip to Salisbury Cathedral. I thought I could show a newly-discovered interest in choral singing by combining a visit to church with a trip out to the track - on either Tuesday afternoon or following evensong on Saturday. Of course, the whole idea was hopeless, transparent, a 66/1 shot in three horse race...
So, this Saturday afternoon, I'll be watching one of the Flat season highlights, the King George, on the television in my front room; after that I have Channel Four's Glorious Goodwood coverage to look forward to.
Friday, July 18, 2008
Market Rasen's Summer Plate
At the moment I'm breaking in a new pair of shoes; it feels like I'm walking about with a canoe attached to the end of each foot. Presently there are two things I have to look forward to - taking the 'canoes' off at the end of the working day and the Summer Plate at Market Rasen tomorrow. Still, I suppose I shouldn't grumble too much - I haven't had to spend a day at Royal Birkdale watching The Open.
Sixteen are set to go to post for the Summer Plate at 3.40. Peter Bowen has made a haibt of targeting this race - the stable field four runners this year. Andrew Barr, writing in the Weekender, highlights Yes Sir as the pick of the four but I prefer to look elsewhere. Evan Williams' William Butler bids to make this five on the bounce, having won four in the last three weeks, but this looks a big ask. Paul Nicholls' Oumeyade will have his supporters in a race that has gone to younger chasers more often than not in the last decade. Having said all that, I'm going to have an each-way wager on Brooklyn Brownie at around 12/1. He goes well here and was the subject of a decent report from his trainer earlier in the week. (I know - if his trainer can't say a good word about him, who can?)
On Racing Post ratings Advancement is the clear choice for the 2.05 but, don't be deceived, this is competitive. Two I'd consider at a price are Katies Tuitor who wouldn't want any more rain and Lord Baskerville.
Favourites have won six of the last nine runnings of the 4.15, with second favourites winning on the other three occasions - I favour Sendani above Southern Regent, while in the 2.40 I'd be tempted to take a chance on Akarshan from the in-form Evan Williams stable.
Sixteen are set to go to post for the Summer Plate at 3.40. Peter Bowen has made a haibt of targeting this race - the stable field four runners this year. Andrew Barr, writing in the Weekender, highlights Yes Sir as the pick of the four but I prefer to look elsewhere. Evan Williams' William Butler bids to make this five on the bounce, having won four in the last three weeks, but this looks a big ask. Paul Nicholls' Oumeyade will have his supporters in a race that has gone to younger chasers more often than not in the last decade. Having said all that, I'm going to have an each-way wager on Brooklyn Brownie at around 12/1. He goes well here and was the subject of a decent report from his trainer earlier in the week. (I know - if his trainer can't say a good word about him, who can?)
On Racing Post ratings Advancement is the clear choice for the 2.05 but, don't be deceived, this is competitive. Two I'd consider at a price are Katies Tuitor who wouldn't want any more rain and Lord Baskerville.
Favourites have won six of the last nine runnings of the 4.15, with second favourites winning on the other three occasions - I favour Sendani above Southern Regent, while in the 2.40 I'd be tempted to take a chance on Akarshan from the in-form Evan Williams stable.
Friday, July 11, 2008
York, Ascot and Chester
I still haven't quite got over the fact that on Wednesday Nahoodh won the Falmouth at 10/1 yet I didn't have a penny on...
The highlight of tomorrow's York card is the 49th running of the John Smith's Cup over one mile two and a half furlongs. Given the weather forecast, the going is likely to suit horses that prefer soft ground. Three year olds have a decent enough record in this but none have managed to make the cut this year! On eight occasions in the last ten years the winner come from a low numbered draw; two horses that have been well-touted horses during the week, Mutajarred and Proponent, are set to come from stalls eleven and nineteen respectively. In this most competitive event, I favour a small each-way bet on Ezdiyaad who is set to come out of berth three and should have no trouble handling the prevailing conditions.
Only seven go to post for the Ascot Summer Mile at 2.55, in which Ramonti, Cesare and Archipenko look the main players. This will be Ramonti's first run of the season following an injury; he was set to run at Royal Ascot but missed that engagement so is passed over here for course specialist Cesare who looked most unlucky in running when beaten just over a length in the Queen Anne three and a half weeks ago. Archipenko could be the fly in the ointment, looking a revitalised horse since moving to Mike De Kock's yard.
The two top-rated horses in Chester's five furlong City Wall Stakes, Borderlescott and Oldjoesaid, are drawn widest in stalls nine and ten respectively; that being the case, I'm tempted to take them on. Mick Quinn's yard has been in good form over the past fortnight and his Angus Newz in stall one will certainly handle the going. Angus Newz has a bit to find with the principals but looks worth an each-way interest at around the 10/1 mark.
The highlight of tomorrow's York card is the 49th running of the John Smith's Cup over one mile two and a half furlongs. Given the weather forecast, the going is likely to suit horses that prefer soft ground. Three year olds have a decent enough record in this but none have managed to make the cut this year! On eight occasions in the last ten years the winner come from a low numbered draw; two horses that have been well-touted horses during the week, Mutajarred and Proponent, are set to come from stalls eleven and nineteen respectively. In this most competitive event, I favour a small each-way bet on Ezdiyaad who is set to come out of berth three and should have no trouble handling the prevailing conditions.
Only seven go to post for the Ascot Summer Mile at 2.55, in which Ramonti, Cesare and Archipenko look the main players. This will be Ramonti's first run of the season following an injury; he was set to run at Royal Ascot but missed that engagement so is passed over here for course specialist Cesare who looked most unlucky in running when beaten just over a length in the Queen Anne three and a half weeks ago. Archipenko could be the fly in the ointment, looking a revitalised horse since moving to Mike De Kock's yard.
The two top-rated horses in Chester's five furlong City Wall Stakes, Borderlescott and Oldjoesaid, are drawn widest in stalls nine and ten respectively; that being the case, I'm tempted to take them on. Mick Quinn's yard has been in good form over the past fortnight and his Angus Newz in stall one will certainly handle the going. Angus Newz has a bit to find with the principals but looks worth an each-way interest at around the 10/1 mark.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Forthcoming treats
There's some decent racing on offer over the next few days. The Newmarket July Festival starts tomorrow while big races on Saturday include the John Smith's Cup at York, the Summer Mile at Ascot (will Cesare have better luck in running this time?) and the five furlong City Wall Stakes at Chester. The Newmarket July meeting has never been one I've followed particularly closely; I won't be getting involved. Queen Mary form from Royal Ascot is represented in tomorrow's Cherry Hinton by Lucky Leigh and Heart Shaped; favourites have a decent record in the Cherry Hinton. Darjina is likely to be a warm order for the Falmouth but she had a hard race behind Hardasun at Ascot while I haven't totally given up on Nahoodh who runs her second race for new connections. I'll be looking for any encouraging signs - regular readers will recall Mark Johnston highlighted the fact the filly had put weight on following her arrival at the yard but she was allowed to run in Ascot's Coronation Stakes where Dettori adopted front-running tactics. She was cooked two out; I wonder whether different tactics will be tried this time.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Sandown's Eclipse
After suffering a severe case of Centre Court sunburn last week while watching Safin demolish Djokovic, this week I am presented with another case of Tim Henman struggling to reach the semi-finals, much as he used to in his playing career; this time, in his commentator's role, he's losing his voice rather than a match. A cheap shot, I know, but I just couldn't resist... Even the racing seems to have picked up the tennis theme - New Balls Please finished fourth in a seller at Chepstow last night while the winner of the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, Fifteen Love, looks to have good chance in the Toteswinger at Sandown on Saturday.
The Eclipse takes centre stage at Sandown with nine set to go to post. Although it doesn't look the strongest renewal, a number of the runners appear closely matched. The weather forecast isn't particularly good for the weekend; as always, it will be important to take account of underfoot conditions. The all-conquering Ballydoyle operation field Mount Nelson who is sure to be popular. Of the two Henry Cecil runners, stable jockey Ted Durcan has chosen Phoenix Tower; his second behind Duke Of Marmalade at Royal Ascot reads well. The problem with the form is that Pipedreamer was just a short-head away in third and Stotsfold wasn't that far behind in sixth having started slowly. Of the market leaders I prefer Phoenix Tower, but, writing in the Weekender, Walter Swinburn is bullish about Stotsfold's chance and he looks the value. Stotsfold, 28/1 with William Hill, rates an each-way wager provided the rain stays away. In the ante-post market for this race some bookmakers bet a quarter the odds a place while others bet a fifth; check before placing your bets.
On official ratings Hoh Mike is the one in the opener and is likely to be priced accordingly; last year he collared Wi Dud in the final fifty yards to win this going away. Both horses are well drawn this year but I like Wi Dud and will consider an interest if the ground is on the easy side.
The Wetherbys Vat Services Stakes at 4.30 is run over two miles. Finalmente held Balkan Knight a head in soft ground over course and distance at the end of May. Balkan Knight's handler David Elsworth has a good record in this race - the horse looks weighted to reverse placings here, although he has tended to show his best form when easy conditions prevail.
The Eclipse takes centre stage at Sandown with nine set to go to post. Although it doesn't look the strongest renewal, a number of the runners appear closely matched. The weather forecast isn't particularly good for the weekend; as always, it will be important to take account of underfoot conditions. The all-conquering Ballydoyle operation field Mount Nelson who is sure to be popular. Of the two Henry Cecil runners, stable jockey Ted Durcan has chosen Phoenix Tower; his second behind Duke Of Marmalade at Royal Ascot reads well. The problem with the form is that Pipedreamer was just a short-head away in third and Stotsfold wasn't that far behind in sixth having started slowly. Of the market leaders I prefer Phoenix Tower, but, writing in the Weekender, Walter Swinburn is bullish about Stotsfold's chance and he looks the value. Stotsfold, 28/1 with William Hill, rates an each-way wager provided the rain stays away. In the ante-post market for this race some bookmakers bet a quarter the odds a place while others bet a fifth; check before placing your bets.
On official ratings Hoh Mike is the one in the opener and is likely to be priced accordingly; last year he collared Wi Dud in the final fifty yards to win this going away. Both horses are well drawn this year but I like Wi Dud and will consider an interest if the ground is on the easy side.
The Wetherbys Vat Services Stakes at 4.30 is run over two miles. Finalmente held Balkan Knight a head in soft ground over course and distance at the end of May. Balkan Knight's handler David Elsworth has a good record in this race - the horse looks weighted to reverse placings here, although he has tended to show his best form when easy conditions prevail.
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Irish Derby deliberations...
On Friday evening an injury scare came to light which has threatened Epsom Derby winner New Approach's participation in the Irish Derby at the Curragh. On Saturday evening the Racing Post reports that connections will make a decision early Sunday morning; the horse has heat in a foot and is said to be 'not totally comfortable' in his box.
The question I'm asking myself is this - provided New Approach is allowed to take his chance, what price about Tartan Bearer will offer value, given the concerns surrounding the favourite? I'll be tempted by anything bigger than 5/2...
The question I'm asking myself is this - provided New Approach is allowed to take his chance, what price about Tartan Bearer will offer value, given the concerns surrounding the favourite? I'll be tempted by anything bigger than 5/2...
Friday, June 27, 2008
Weekend action
Twenty go to post in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle tomorrow; several in the field ran at Ascot last week and, generally, Ascot runners have a good record in this. Nonetheless a few appeared to have a hard race, including Bukit Tinggi who has been kept busy this season. The draw can play an important part even though the race is over two miles; I tend to favour low numbered runners as they can hold a handy position more easily. Two that catch my eye and should handle the likely cut in the ground are Highland Legacy and Tilt. Both come to this fresh having run in the Chester Cup where Tilt, finishing third at level weights, came out on top. I think the pair are closely matched again but take the view that Highland Legacy didn't quite see out the two miles two furlong trip and, drawn in stall two here, can reverse the form giving Tilt, less favourably drawn in berth eleven, two pounds.
On Sunday it would be easy to miss the English Summer National run over four miles at Uttoxeter. Grand National fifth Philson Run, no spring chicken at the age of twelve, would have been a sporting each-way bet had the ground come up on the slow side but the forecast going (good to firm) makes me think a few of these will have a bit too much pace for the old-timer.
The Irish Derby at the Curragh, also on Sunday, looks fascinating with several runners from the English version choosing to try their luck again. Dermot Weld, trainer of Casual Conquest, has said that he doesn't think his horse can now find the five lengths he was beaten last time when finishing third. The race would appear to be between the first two at Epsom, New Approach and Tartan Bearer, and, unsurprisingly, the official ratings confirm that view. I know a few commentators felt the race at Epsom developed into something of a sprint up the home straight; I'm not brave enough to oppose New Approach so will maintain a watching brief but for those who are, Tartan Bearer looks the value.
On Sunday it would be easy to miss the English Summer National run over four miles at Uttoxeter. Grand National fifth Philson Run, no spring chicken at the age of twelve, would have been a sporting each-way bet had the ground come up on the slow side but the forecast going (good to firm) makes me think a few of these will have a bit too much pace for the old-timer.
The Irish Derby at the Curragh, also on Sunday, looks fascinating with several runners from the English version choosing to try their luck again. Dermot Weld, trainer of Casual Conquest, has said that he doesn't think his horse can now find the five lengths he was beaten last time when finishing third. The race would appear to be between the first two at Epsom, New Approach and Tartan Bearer, and, unsurprisingly, the official ratings confirm that view. I know a few commentators felt the race at Epsom developed into something of a sprint up the home straight; I'm not brave enough to oppose New Approach so will maintain a watching brief but for those who are, Tartan Bearer looks the value.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Royal Ascot assessed
This proved a vintage Royal Ascot for Aidan O'Brien and his team, the highlight being Yeats' third consecutive victory in the Gold Cup on Thursday. By way of contrast, my own figures make for dismal reading with three wins (Henrythenavigator 4/7, Duke Of Marmalade evens, and Honolulu 7/4) and two places from thirteen selections, returning a level stakes loss of 6.68 points over the course of the week.
I will remember this year for Duke Of Marmalade's win in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday, Patkai's scintillating turn of foot in the Queen's Vase and John Best shouting home Kingsgate Native, his 33/1 winner of the Golden Jubilee. By the way, did anyone else notice Her Majesty have a momentary attack of the 'jelly legs' after her two year old Free Agent came from last to first to win the Chesham?
Mrs Tips has insisted I take a break from racing so we're off to Wimbledon on Wednesday. Today a couple of the Sunday papers have led with stories about corruption in professional tennis but it's interesting to note that Harry Findlay, who has wagered an awful lot of money on the sport, believes the game to be absolutely straight. That should give Sue Barker something to discuss during the inevitable rain breaks...
I will remember this year for Duke Of Marmalade's win in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes on Wednesday, Patkai's scintillating turn of foot in the Queen's Vase and John Best shouting home Kingsgate Native, his 33/1 winner of the Golden Jubilee. By the way, did anyone else notice Her Majesty have a momentary attack of the 'jelly legs' after her two year old Free Agent came from last to first to win the Chesham?
Mrs Tips has insisted I take a break from racing so we're off to Wimbledon on Wednesday. Today a couple of the Sunday papers have led with stories about corruption in professional tennis but it's interesting to note that Harry Findlay, who has wagered an awful lot of money on the sport, believes the game to be absolutely straight. That should give Sue Barker something to discuss during the inevitable rain breaks...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Royal Ascot - Saturday
It hasn't been a particularly good Royal Ascot for yours truly. Mrs Tips put the top hat on today's dismal performance by walking into the living room, picking Lush Lashes because she liked the name (wins @ 5/1) and then returning ten minutes later to gloat. What little confidence I had has been shot to pieces; I'm going back to novice hurdles at Hereford.
Royal Ascot has been famously described as a garden tea party with a bit of racing thrown in on the side - the BBC's coverage tends to pander to that view. Solely for the sake of completeness, you understand, here are two selections for tomorrow...
Maraahel obliged for this blog last year when winning the Hardwicke Stakes and goes for the same race again but I fear old age is catching up with him - the Weekender informs us it's over 100 years since a horse aged seven or older has won this. The favourite has only won once in the last ten years which doesn't bode well for Macarthur so I'm going to take a chance with Sir Michael Stoute's course and distance winner Spanish Moon.
In the concluding Queen Alexandra Stakes which is run over a marathon distance just shy of two and three quarter miles, Aidan O'Brien's Honolulu stands out on ratings and, provided he stays, must have a major chance. Ballydoyle has had an excellent week - with an air of quiet desperation, I hope Honolulu can put a smile back on my face.
Royal Ascot has been famously described as a garden tea party with a bit of racing thrown in on the side - the BBC's coverage tends to pander to that view. Solely for the sake of completeness, you understand, here are two selections for tomorrow...
Maraahel obliged for this blog last year when winning the Hardwicke Stakes and goes for the same race again but I fear old age is catching up with him - the Weekender informs us it's over 100 years since a horse aged seven or older has won this. The favourite has only won once in the last ten years which doesn't bode well for Macarthur so I'm going to take a chance with Sir Michael Stoute's course and distance winner Spanish Moon.
In the concluding Queen Alexandra Stakes which is run over a marathon distance just shy of two and three quarter miles, Aidan O'Brien's Honolulu stands out on ratings and, provided he stays, must have a major chance. Ballydoyle has had an excellent week - with an air of quiet desperation, I hope Honolulu can put a smile back on my face.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Royal Ascot - Friday
Only nine go to post in the King Edward VII Stakes at 3.05 but it still looks pretty competitive. Several commentators fancy Bronze Cannon who is surely better than his official handicap rating of 103. His defeat of subsequent Derby fourth Doctor Fremantle reads very well but the fast ground is a cause of some concern. Ballydoyle's representative Hebridean is respected but I've concentrated on the two top-rated animals according to the official handicapper, All The Aces and City Leader. Using Doctor Freemantle as a yardstick, you could argue that Bronze Cannon would have the measure of All The Aces, but the 10/1 on offer at Ladbrokes makes City Leader an interesting each-way proposition.
Cheveley Park hold a strong hand in the Coronation Stakes with market leaders Spacious and Infallible; I see Spacious as the most likely winner. The one that has caught my eye here is Nahoodh. I tipped her each-way at 33/1 in the Guineas where she met trouble in running but would have gone close otherwise. Since then she has disappointed over in Ireland, had a change of owner and a change of trainer as well. Many see her as inconsistent and new handler Mark Johnston, writing in the Weekender, says, 'She has put on a bit of weight which isn't ideal just before a race, but will take her chance nonetheless.' Doesn't sound too convincing, does it? I may have a small each-way investment as 10/1 is a big price if she runs to her best form.
Finally, in the two mile Queen's Vase, Captain Webb, also from the Mark Johnston stable, looks a value play against the Michael Stoute trained favourite Patkai.
Cheveley Park hold a strong hand in the Coronation Stakes with market leaders Spacious and Infallible; I see Spacious as the most likely winner. The one that has caught my eye here is Nahoodh. I tipped her each-way at 33/1 in the Guineas where she met trouble in running but would have gone close otherwise. Since then she has disappointed over in Ireland, had a change of owner and a change of trainer as well. Many see her as inconsistent and new handler Mark Johnston, writing in the Weekender, says, 'She has put on a bit of weight which isn't ideal just before a race, but will take her chance nonetheless.' Doesn't sound too convincing, does it? I may have a small each-way investment as 10/1 is a big price if she runs to her best form.
Finally, in the two mile Queen's Vase, Captain Webb, also from the Mark Johnston stable, looks a value play against the Michael Stoute trained favourite Patkai.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Royal Ascot - Thursday
Thursday is Ladies' Day and the main attraction, the ladies aside of course, is the Ascot Gold Cup which is run over two and a half miles. Aidan O'Brien's Yeats is on a hat-trick, having won this twice previously; his crown looks under threat from French raider Coastal Path who comes to this unbeaten in six starts. Yeats obliged for this blog last year but I'm going to jump ship and support Coastal Path. Last Saturday on Channel Four Racing Timeform chief Jim McGrath put up Coastal Path as his best bet of the meeting; any rain that falls between now and the off will only improve the selection's chance. Godolphin's Sagara looks unexposed here and may provide some value for those in search of an each-way wager.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Royal Ascot - Wednesday
The weather forecast predicts overcast skies for tomorrow and Thursday (Ladies' Day).
Those looking for last minute fashion tips might be interested in what the BBC has to say on the matter. Those looking for last minute horse racing tips may not be interested in what I have to say on the matter.
Just two for Wednesday - I tend to find that limiting the number of selections helps keep the losses down. In the Windsor Forest Stakes, due off at 3.05, I'm siding with Sir Michael Stoute's Heaven Sent. Cheveley Park Stud regularly target this meeting - in an earlier preview a representative put up Heaven Sent as their best chance of a winner at the entire meeting. French raider Sabana Perdida, third in this last year, is feared most.
In the Prince of Wales's Stakes I take Aidan O'Brien's Duke Of Marmalade to collect the spoils. In his last race at the Curragh he held Finsceal Beo one and a quarter lengths; Finsceal Beo ran well to finish third in the Queen Anne earlier today.
The thirty runner cavalry charge that is the Royal Hunt Cup takes place at 4.20. In all probability a horse called Bankable will be sent off one of the shortest priced favourites in the long history of this race. Journalists may try to tempt you with stories of Bankable being the banker of the meeting; make sure you stand firm and resist such temptation.
Those looking for last minute fashion tips might be interested in what the BBC has to say on the matter. Those looking for last minute horse racing tips may not be interested in what I have to say on the matter.
Just two for Wednesday - I tend to find that limiting the number of selections helps keep the losses down. In the Windsor Forest Stakes, due off at 3.05, I'm siding with Sir Michael Stoute's Heaven Sent. Cheveley Park Stud regularly target this meeting - in an earlier preview a representative put up Heaven Sent as their best chance of a winner at the entire meeting. French raider Sabana Perdida, third in this last year, is feared most.
In the Prince of Wales's Stakes I take Aidan O'Brien's Duke Of Marmalade to collect the spoils. In his last race at the Curragh he held Finsceal Beo one and a quarter lengths; Finsceal Beo ran well to finish third in the Queen Anne earlier today.
The thirty runner cavalry charge that is the Royal Hunt Cup takes place at 4.20. In all probability a horse called Bankable will be sent off one of the shortest priced favourites in the long history of this race. Journalists may try to tempt you with stories of Bankable being the banker of the meeting; make sure you stand firm and resist such temptation.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Royal Ascot - Tuesday
Hmm - tomorrow isn't looking too good - the annual staff appraisal in the morning followed by the annual bookmakers' benefit in the afternoon...
The opening Queen Anne Stakes over a mile is missing both Creachadoir (injured) and Ramonti (going for the Sussex at Goodwood). Both the fillies, Darjina and Finsceal Beo, are in with a shout on their best form; of the two I prefer Jim Bolger's Finsceal Beo who looked to be coming back to her best last time out behind Duke Of Marmalade. Having said that, a filly hasn't won this in the last ten years. Cesare is consistent, has won over course and distance and will run his race but at the age of seven may find one or two too good; four year olds have the best record in this event. I'm going to take a chance with Tariq who looked unlucky in running and was staying on in the Lockinge at Newbury - connections feel the trip shouldn't be a problem.
Fleeting Spirit will be all the rage in the King's Stand following her win at Haydock last time where she broke the track record. The form is in the book but I'm cautious - she is not one to bet at short odds. Haydock's fast five furlongs is rather different to the stiff five at Ascot; in addition older horses have a better record.
Henrythenavigator is the form horse in the St James's Palace Stakes but he will be long odds-on.
In Raceform Update's Royal Ascot Guide, using his own ratings, Peter May makes a case for Mick Channon's Orizaba in the Coventry at 4.20. The market has provided a good indicator to this over the last twenty years and Orizaba should be thereabouts.
The opening Queen Anne Stakes over a mile is missing both Creachadoir (injured) and Ramonti (going for the Sussex at Goodwood). Both the fillies, Darjina and Finsceal Beo, are in with a shout on their best form; of the two I prefer Jim Bolger's Finsceal Beo who looked to be coming back to her best last time out behind Duke Of Marmalade. Having said that, a filly hasn't won this in the last ten years. Cesare is consistent, has won over course and distance and will run his race but at the age of seven may find one or two too good; four year olds have the best record in this event. I'm going to take a chance with Tariq who looked unlucky in running and was staying on in the Lockinge at Newbury - connections feel the trip shouldn't be a problem.
Fleeting Spirit will be all the rage in the King's Stand following her win at Haydock last time where she broke the track record. The form is in the book but I'm cautious - she is not one to bet at short odds. Haydock's fast five furlongs is rather different to the stiff five at Ascot; in addition older horses have a better record.
Henrythenavigator is the form horse in the St James's Palace Stakes but he will be long odds-on.
In Raceform Update's Royal Ascot Guide, using his own ratings, Peter May makes a case for Mick Channon's Orizaba in the Coventry at 4.20. The market has provided a good indicator to this over the last twenty years and Orizaba should be thereabouts.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Low key Saturday
With Royal Ascot around the corner and everybody asking about the weather forecast, tomorrow's racing just doesn't quite cut it. At Sandown Corrybrough looks the one in the Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip although he's likely to start odds-on and doesn't have a particularly good draw. I was intending to keep my powder dry for next week but, for some unfathomable reason, the 4.00 at York has caught my imagination. There are only eight declared but a number look unexposed. In the last ten years, the lowest Racing Post rating of the winner has been 91 - four of the particpants here have a lower figure. The top animal is Doon Hamer and he's priced up at 12/1 this evening which looks a tempting each-way proposition. A couple of months ago Deadly Silence, rated only 70, finished under five lengths third behind subsequent Derby second Tartan Bearer in a Leicester maiden; he's on offer at 5/1. Swinging Sixties is bound to be popular and Military Power is a feasible option. All in all, it's rather a trappy race but Deadly Silence looks to have potential and is worth chancing at 5/1 while Doon Hamer offers each-way value if priced in double figures. Incidentally, the people of Dumfries are known as 'Doonhamers'.
Monday, June 09, 2008
Derby debrief
To me, this looked a decent renewal of the Derby and New Approach's victory something to celebrate. Yet the undercurrent of controvesy and recrimination which has surrounded this horse's participation was never far away, even in the winner's enclosure; Jim Bolger strikes me as an individual who won't lose too much sleep over all that. The first three home could meet again in the Irish Derby three weeks hence.
Statto, the BBC's 'betting expert', appears to have sorted out his money problems. The Corporation didn't want Angus giving his market commentaries at Aintree's Grand National meeting while he still had a bankruptcy case hanging over him. Viewers will have been pleased to see The Numerate One back on our screens, together with the laconic Gary Wiltshire, the over-dressed Claire Balding et al...
There will be no more racing at Epsom this season while building work is completed. I'm looking forward to taking Mrs Tips to the new on-site hotel...
Just eight days until Royal Ascot starts; I must locate a copy of Raceform Update's Royal Ascot Guide.
Over the weekend I struck a deal with Mrs Tips. I watched the Derby day racing on Saturday while she watched the men's singles final from Roland Garros on Sunday. Nadal's defeat of Federer may have been expected but the manner of that defeat certainly wasn't. Will this be the year Roger Federer relinquishes his Wimbledon crown? Hills bet 11/10 Federer and 4/1 Djokovic while Nadal is 9/2 with Coral.
Statto, the BBC's 'betting expert', appears to have sorted out his money problems. The Corporation didn't want Angus giving his market commentaries at Aintree's Grand National meeting while he still had a bankruptcy case hanging over him. Viewers will have been pleased to see The Numerate One back on our screens, together with the laconic Gary Wiltshire, the over-dressed Claire Balding et al...
There will be no more racing at Epsom this season while building work is completed. I'm looking forward to taking Mrs Tips to the new on-site hotel...
Just eight days until Royal Ascot starts; I must locate a copy of Raceform Update's Royal Ascot Guide.
Over the weekend I struck a deal with Mrs Tips. I watched the Derby day racing on Saturday while she watched the men's singles final from Roland Garros on Sunday. Nadal's defeat of Federer may have been expected but the manner of that defeat certainly wasn't. Will this be the year Roger Federer relinquishes his Wimbledon crown? Hills bet 11/10 Federer and 4/1 Djokovic while Nadal is 9/2 with Coral.
Friday, June 06, 2008
Epsom Derby
Finding the answer to this year's Derby doesn't look an easy task and, to be honest, I don't think I'm up to it. In nine of the last ten runnings the winner has come from the first four in the betting; using that yardstick, at the time of writing, you're invited to pick one from Casual Conquest, Curtain Call, New Approach and Tartan Bearer. Casual Conquest, installed as the favourite, is short on racecourse experience, while the right noises having been coming out of the Cumani stable about Curtain Call, yet he doesn't look to have had the best of the draw. Opinion is divided as to whether New Approach will stay but, as the top-rated animal in the field, he will have a major chance if he does. The preliminaries may well pose a problem for NA; he was given 'special dispensation' in the Guineas to hack down to post with his accompanying pony, resulting in the race starting late and other runners becoming fractious on account of the delay. At least two trainers have already indicated to the Epsom stewards this must not be allowed to happen tomorrow. The temperament issue is something to consider with this horse, so I'll pass over him. That leaves Sir Michael Stoute's Tartan Bearer who won the Dante by a head from Frozen Fire. As I highlighted in my post on Tuesday, that was Frozen Fire's first run of the season; he looked green and hung quite a bit - if he'd run straight, he would probably have won. I quietly fancied FF but that was blown out of the water on Wednesday when stable jockey Johnny Murtagh chose to ride King Of Rome, saying he thought that horse had shown most improvement at home. King Of Rome is now 12/1 while FF is out to 20/1 with Ladbrokes. All very confusing, isn't it? You pay your money and takes your choice; I'm going to stick with the Dante form and put up Tartan Bearer to collect the spoils while Frozen Fire, with a favourable draw and Mick Kinane in the plate, represents a decent each-way alternative.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Oaks Day at Epsom
I haven't done a lot of work on tomorrow's card at Epsom but perhaps that's no bad thing. In the Coronation Cup at 3.25 Mick Channon's Youmzain is too big at 8/1, is in with a chance of winning on his best form, and in any case, at that price, rates an each-way wager for the more cautiously-minded.
In the Oaks Clive Cox's filly Miracle Seeker is one with a good attitude. On the formbook she has loads to find with the principals but the drying ground will suit, she will stay and her latest win at Lingfield means she should handle the course. The trainer, writing in the Weekender, is sweet enough on her chances ("...if she can repeat on the track what I've seen her do at home she is definitely in with a chance..." ) considering the bookmakers have priced her up at 40/1. The draw in stall two doesn't appear to have done her any favours but she's a sporting selection to run into a place.
In the Oaks Clive Cox's filly Miracle Seeker is one with a good attitude. On the formbook she has loads to find with the principals but the drying ground will suit, she will stay and her latest win at Lingfield means she should handle the course. The trainer, writing in the Weekender, is sweet enough on her chances ("...if she can repeat on the track what I've seen her do at home she is definitely in with a chance..." ) considering the bookmakers have priced her up at 40/1. The draw in stall two doesn't appear to have done her any favours but she's a sporting selection to run into a place.
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