Epsom Oaks

With further rain having fallen through the week, the going at Epsom is now soft. Fourteen runners go to post for the Oaks, Henry Cecil's Passage Of Time likely to start favourite. I opposed this horse in the Musidora at York and I'm inclined to do so again following her well documented problems with an abscess on her epiglottis. A bullish piece in The Weekender quotes Cecil as expecting both his fillies 'to be in the first three'. With that in mind, I'll be supporting the yard's Light Shift (currently 6/1 with Totesport) and may be tempted into a reverse forecast Light Shift and Passage Of Time. Should either of them oblige, there won't be a dry eye in the house.

Soft ground a distinct possibility for Saturday's Epsom Derby

After weather typical of a British Bank Holiday weekend, the chances are this year's Derby will be run on ground riding on the soft side of good come Saturday. This likelihood will inconvenience a number of the runners, but not the current favourite, Authorized; bookmakers now quote the horse at shades of odds on.

A piece in today's Times looks to quell the rumour that Dettori would announce his retirement on Saturday should Authorized give him his first win in the famous race.

Irish Guineas meeting

The Irish Guineas meeting takes place at the Curragh this weekend. Cockney Rebel is likely to start a short priced favourite in the 2,000 Guineas after his popular victory in the English version at Newmarket three weeks ago.

On Sunday Finsceal Beo will start favourite but looks somewhat vulnerable in the 1,000 Guineas; this will be the filly's third Group 1 race in as many weeks. Provided the rain doesn't arrive, the favourite could be worth opposing with Arch Swing trained by John Oxx. Mark 'The Couch' Winstanley has made a convincing case for this horse in The Weekender; I'll be hoping she does the business.

Dettori's Derby?

The decision some time ago by Godolphin to boycott Coolmore sires probably has a lot to do with Frankie Dettori going through a rather quiet spell at the moment.

All that is likely to change now as Dettori, who has never won the Derby in fourteen attempts, has been booked to ride pre-race favourite Authorized. I don't know why Dettori should be unhappy; I've never had the Derby winner in well over thirty years of trying. Authorized is currently a best priced 5/4 and looks likely to start odds on. With less than ten days to go to the big race, you can rest assured you'll know all about it if he wins.

Aintree card this evening

For the time of year there's a reasonable card at Aintree this evening. Two I'll be keeping an eye on in the 7.15 are the four year old Katies Tuitor and Hilltime. This will be Katies' first run in a handicap and it looks a competitive event. All his racing has been done on right handed tracks; in his last two efforts hurdling has let him down as the field starts to race in earnest.

Hilltime posted a fast time when finishing second in a two mile handicap chase at Southwell recently. Previously this horse had finished fifth of twenty two runners in a listed hurdle race over course and distance when priced at 100/1.

The bumper, held over from the Grand National meeting, contains a few nice looking entries and should give us some pointers for the future.

Street-Porter: 'I could eat a horse.'

Last night, on Gordon Ramsay's 'The F-Word' programme, the shy, retiring, delectable Janet Street-Porter was shown popping over to France, identifying a horse she wanted to eat, and then, back at home, promptly eating it.

Not only did she seem to enjoy eating the beast, which, coincidentally, she'd named Gordon, but she felt moved to set up a stall at the Cheltenham Festival to get punters to try the fare. Gloucestershire police moved her along from the approaches to the racecourse, claiming such action could be interpreted as provocative, but an obliging resident nearby allowed her to present her wares on their driveway. More to the point, punters seemed to like eating horses as much as betting on them. If only I'd eaten half the horses I'd bet on...

On a different note, the York May Festival starts today with the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes, an established Oaks trial, the highlight of the card. Five fillies go to post with Henry Cecil's runner Passage Of Time likely to start odds on favourite. Cecil, in excellent form, has indicated that Passage Of Time, who has to give 3lbs to the field, may be coming into season. That being the case it may pay to take a chance on Michael Stoute's Shorthand whose full sister Short Skirt won this last year.

Record Scoop6 pot shared

The Racing Post and Channel 4 Racing have given plenty of publicity to the record breaking pot up for grabs in today's Scoop6 pool. All you had to do was pick six winners of the six nominated races to gain a share of over £1.5 million.

At 8 o'clock this morning there were 5,989,950 possible winning combinations. Taking into account non-runners and withdrawals, that number had shrunk quite considerably to 2,270,268 (9x28x7x13x9x11) by the time the races were run.

In the event 11 winners collect just under £154,000 each, with considerably less accompanying coverage because, as we all know, a single £1million plus winner is a bookmaker's publicity dream. The eleven winners have the chance to go for a share of the £1 million plus bonus pot next week.

Just for the record, I try to avoid this type of bet; I find it difficult enough to select one winner, never mind six.

Yet another Grand National

The Sheep Grand National takes place every May Bank Holiday Monday on Hoo Farm outside Telford, Shropshire, with this year's winner confirmed as Ginger Nut ridden by Roger Ram.

The sheep have jockeys on their backs and jump a number of fences over a course that is just over a furlong.

No footage from this year's renewal to hand, but I did come across a clip from the 2003 running of the race on the BBC website at http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/funny_old_game/3006579.stm

Lines about bookmakers fleecing punters, sheep making good jumpers, the betting being 7/2 baaah one, Richard Ewes riding a poor race, runners being penned in a the start, bookmakers pulling the wool over punters' eyes, the big race sheepstakes etc. are forbidden.

Wrexham's great escape

Wrexham managed to escape relegation yesterday, sending Boston down in the process by beating them 3-1, although it was far fom plain sailing. 1-0 down at half-time, Wrexham were staring disaster in the face but the three second half goals, two in the last four minutes, changed the picture completely.

The BBC's report and pictures capture the occasion well.

I managed to catch live radio coverage in Coventry on BBC Radio Wales. What a truamatic season! I wouldn't want to go through a final day like that again in a hurry; in the end it was just a huge sense of a relief. Let's hope the club can progress from here.

Newmarket 2000 Guineas meeting

The first classic of the 2007 flat season, the 2000 Guineas, takes place at Newmarket tomorrow. Let me issue the obligatory health warning here - I don't follow the flat particularly closely. Around this time of year I promise myself that I'm going to concentrate on the summer jumping programme but, invariably, I don't.

Yesterday the Guineas ante post favourite Teofilo was withdrawn after suffering a training setback. According to The Racing Post his defection has netted bookmakers between £1 million and £2.5 million. Paddy Power, to their credit, have agreed to refund losing ante post bets.

The race still has the look of a bookmakers' benefit with twenty four expected to go to post. Michael Stoute's Adagio is the new favourite but favourites have a poor record in this event over the years. US Ranger, supplemented at a cost of £25,000 earlier in the week, has been backed with bucketloads of money, while Diamond Tycoon won a Newbury maiden in a very fast time. Major Cadeaux won The Greenham in impressive fashion.

My selection is Paul Cole's Strategic Prince; his third behind Teofilo in last season's Dewhurst on unsuitably soft ground looks solid form. The starting price is likely to be around 8/1; for those looking for something slightly bigger, trainer John Best has a positive word for his 100/1 outsider Hurricane Spirit on the yard's blog at http://www.johnbestracing.com/wordpress/?p=52

The race is due off at 3.25.

D-Day at Wrexham

At present I'm distracted by Wrexham's plight at the bottom of League Two. On Saturday they need a win or a draw at home to Boston United to ensure league football next season. Boston are next to bottom of the league and need to win to survive. If Wrexham lose, they will need to rely on Notts County winning at Macclesfield.

I know it's sad but last night I worked out the various permutations (discounting goal difference scenarios), as a kind of displacement activity.

Wrexham win, Macclesfield win - Boston relegated.
Wrexham win, Macclesfield draw - Boston relegated.

Wrexham win, Macclesfield lose - Boston relegated.

Wrexham draw, Macclesfield win - Boston relegated.

Wrexham draw, Macclesfield draw - Boston relegated.

Wrexham draw, Macclesfield lose - Boston relegated.

Wrexham lose, Macclesfield win - Wrexham relegated.

Wrexham lose, Macclesfield draw - Wrexham relegated.

Wrexham lose, Macclesfield lose - Macclesfield relegated.

Earlier in the week Wrexham were 5/1 to go down; now I see they're priced at just 3/1. My fear is that if Boston score first, Wrexham will struggle as, during this nightmare of a season, the goals have been difficult to come by. Saturday afternooon I shall be watching the match - on teletext. Fingers crossed...

Jumps season review 2006/7

The record books will show that Paul Nicholls was champion trainer, Tony McCoy champion jockey and Tom O'Brien top conditional rider.

I've enjoyed this season with personal highlights including a day at Kempton races to celebrate my fiftieth birthday in October; a day at Newbury races with The Times racing correspondent Alan Lee in February; five winners from fifteen selections at the Cheltenham Festival; tipping McKelvey each way at 40/1 three weeks before the Grand National and four of my six National selections finishing in the first seven home.

Blog horse of the year has to be Katchit who was tipped six times and won on every occasion at odds of 4/11, 7/4, 7/4, 2/1, 11/2 and even money.

Of course, in between times I tipped plenty of losers as well...

Kauto Star's win in The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November convinced me the horse was special.

And a mention for two who are no longer with us - David Nicholson who departed this life in August and Desert Orchid who died peacefully at the ripe old age of twenty seven.

It all starts again tomorrow with the Ludlow Golf Club Claiming Hurdle at 2.00pm.

Sandown Betfred Gold Cup meeting

Tomorrow the Betfred Gold Cup meeting brings down the curtain on another jumps season, one of the wettest I can remember, although all that heavy going seems a long time ago now.

The Celebration Chase over two miles is due off at 2.40. Dempsey would be the choice if Carl Llewellyn's stable was in better form but he hasn't had a winner for the best part of a month. I'm passing over River City who is likely to be feeling the effects of travelling back from Punchestown earlier in the week and taking a chance with Yes Sir who returned to form when winning well at Ayr last weekend over two miles four furlongs. His front running style will be an asset around here.

The Gold Cup has attracted just eleven runners but looks competitive nonetheless. A number of these have had a busy season. Henry Daly's Alderburn is the selection; he's fairly fresh, carries the minimum ten stones and will act on the ground.

Early next week I'll write a review of the jumps season as the flat looks forward to the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

Punchestown Festival - Tuesday

Eight runners go to post for tomorrow's Kerrygold Champion Chase due off at 4.05. According to official ratings the three to concentrate on are Nickname, Newmill and River City. Nickname has done most of his winning on soft ground; at this stage the going looks like being good. Good ground will certainly suit Newmill who won this race last year by fifteen lengths, having previously won the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in a fast time. This year he hasn't quite performed up to that level, finishing fourth behind Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham. Newmill is the top rated horse here and is priced up as 3/1 second favourite behind Nickname in The Sporting Life tissue show - decent value for a horse that will have his conditions. In the same show River City is quoted at 12/1. That's looks big for a horse that will also relish conditions, tends to come to hand at this time of year and finished third in front of Newmill at Cheltenham last time. I favour Newmill to win; River City represents each way value at 12/1 if the eight go to post.

Ayr Scottish National meeting

A number of the twenty four runners declared for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National have had a long season. I'm putting up Malcolm Jefferson's Classic Capers as a horse who should run well at a decent each way price (currently 33/1 with Ladbrokes). Last year's winner Run For Paddy looks like a horse that has been laid out for the race but the fact the yard hasn't had a winner for over three weeks is a considerable negative.

On paper the opener at 1.55 is between Poquelin and Pouvoir. Poquelin is the top rated horse and will be priced accordingly. He looked anything but an easy ride when finishing third to Punjabi at Kempton in February. Since then he has finished a creditable sixth in the Triumph but jumped poorly. Pouvoir has 7lbs to find but he likes to race prominently and I favour him to turn over the probable favourite.

The Future Champion Novices' Chase looks a hot affair. The better ground will suit David Pipe's Buena Vista and he's won over the distance. Faasel ran second to Aces Four over three miles at Aintree last week and may not have had enough time to recover. I take Paul Nicholls' Natal to win this event.

Freds go free at Sandown

With the Grand National being run a week later than usual, the end of the National Hunt season has a peculiarly condensed feel. The Scottish Grand National meeting starts tomorrow at Ayr on good to firm ground with small fields prevailing. Next week the Punchestown Festival takes place over in Ireland and then the mixed Betfred meeting at Sandown acts as the final curtain.

A snippet in Alan Lee's Diary column today informs us that on the Friday Sandown will 'admit free anyone who can prove his first name is Fred.'

I've just asked Mrs. Tips to send a letter to our home address with the addressee as one Mr. Frederick Tips. 'What's actually in the letter?' I hear my three readers enquire. I don't know - I haven't received it yet.

'Right...' said Fred.

Notes from the National

Here's a few thoughts that crossed my mind while watching the 2007 Grand National on television...

The start was an absolute shambles; no better than last year and probably worse in that the starter, looking like he'd just walked in from the set of 'Foyle's War', missed several good opportunities to let them go before eventually performing the task he was employed for.

As always in the National, the bookmakers shorten the vast majority of their prices on the day. The advice for punters has to be take the price when you strike your bet. The only horse I noted drifting was eventual fifth Liberthine from 33/1 to 40/1.

It was surprising to see Monkerhostin backed in to 8/1 co-favourite. Granted, he'd run a decent race in the Gold Cup, but he's not the biggest individual or the best of jumpers. He was pulled up fairly early on. Richard Johnson told the BBC afterwards that the horse had landed on one of the fences and frightened himself but he'd be back next year. If he is, I won't be backing him.

I was convinced Simon, who looked to have taken the preliminaries worse than the majority, needed soft ground to be seen at his best but he was running a huge race and looked an unlucky faller. He's one to bear in mind for next year, as would be the third Slim Pickings and Bewleys Berry. I fear that next year age will be catching up with Longshanks and Philson Run.

Peter Bowen later reported that McKelvey had ruptured a tendon and that had probably cost the horse the race. Connections are bound to be eyeing next year's running.

Years ago Nick Mordin said something along the lines of never back a horse wearing blinkers in this race. I don't know how long it is since a horse wearing blinkers has won, but that put me off Billyvoddan in particular.

Finally congratulations to my daughter (Baby Tips) who selected the winner, on the advice of Mrs. Tips. She has promised one of her raps as a celebration (that's Baby Tips, you understand, not Mrs. Tips). Please, no.

John Smith's People's Race

The BBC's coverage of the Grand National meeting commences at 1.00 tomorrow afternoon.

The People's Race, in which ten amateur riders chosen from the public race over a distance of nine furlongs, is scheduled for around 1.10-1.15. This will be a race worth watching, although at this stage it's not clear if the race will be shown live.

Current 2/1 favourite with bookmaker Ladbrokes is Michael Sweeney, a 47 year old plumber from Manchester. He will be riding Instructor, a horse that has won six times at around this distance.

Well done to all the rookie riders who have trained hard over the past two and a half months; they will all surely have the thrill of a lifetime tomorrow, win or lose.

Grand National selections

Last night, with this week's copy of The Weekender at my side, I went through the forty declared National runners and came up with a list of six possibles. Here they are in the order I think they'll finish.

1. Point Barrow - has an excellent profile in terms of age, weight and form. Acts on the ground. In an open race, the statistics point to this horse as the most likely winner.
2. McKelvey - tipped up on this blog three weeks ago when priced at 40/1. Stays, handles the ground, has jumped the fences previously. Reasonable each way value at 20/1.

3. Numbersixvalverde - last year's winner is a sound jumper who would prefer more cut in the ground. Has solid place claims.

4. Bewleys Berry - looks a National type, has jumped these fences previously and the stable is now in form. Reasonable each way value at around 25/1.

5. Longshanks - goes well fresh, jumped the fences previously. Concern he's suffered a bruised foot in the last fortnight. Priced at around 25/1.
6. Liberthine - mare with a good completion record over the course. Not absolutely certain to stay but you could argue that is factored into the price at 33/1. Place claims if she stays.

And finally, an over priced no hoper for the romantics amongst you... The Outlier. Good luck!

Aintree selections - Friday

Friday is Ladies' Day at Aintree but the winners look difficult to pick out.

In the opener at 2.00 Ungaro will appreciate the good ground and has a decent chance if reproducing the form shown when winning the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The stable has been a little in and out of form and, with that in mind, I'm prepared to forgive his run at Cheltenham behind Denman. Likely favourite Turko is not the best of jumpers, while top rated Faasel has done most of his winning around two miles but will be a danger to all if he stays. Ungaro is guaranteed to stay so he gets the vote.

Wichita Lineman won impressively at Cheltenham, is the form horse in the 2.35 and will be priced accordingly. Massini's Maguire seemed to benefit from front running tactics when winning the Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle at Cheltenham but had previously appeared inconsistent; he's not one I'd trust implicitly. Paul Nicholls thinks Silverburn will improve following his sixth behind Massini's Maguire and appeals as the alternative should the favourite's price be too short for your liking.

I was surprised to see Well Chief has never won over two and a half miles. Nonetheless on official ratings he is the top horse by a considerable margin and is the one to beat in the John Smith's Melling Chase at 3.10. Crozan is interesting in that he was running a big race at a big price when falling at Cheltenham last time. Here he wears first time blinkers and may offer some each way value provided eight or more go to post. He could be anything but trainer Nicky Henderson thinks highly of him.