Jumps season review 2006/7

The record books will show that Paul Nicholls was champion trainer, Tony McCoy champion jockey and Tom O'Brien top conditional rider.

I've enjoyed this season with personal highlights including a day at Kempton races to celebrate my fiftieth birthday in October; a day at Newbury races with The Times racing correspondent Alan Lee in February; five winners from fifteen selections at the Cheltenham Festival; tipping McKelvey each way at 40/1 three weeks before the Grand National and four of my six National selections finishing in the first seven home.

Blog horse of the year has to be Katchit who was tipped six times and won on every occasion at odds of 4/11, 7/4, 7/4, 2/1, 11/2 and even money.

Of course, in between times I tipped plenty of losers as well...

Kauto Star's win in The Betfair Chase at Haydock in November convinced me the horse was special.

And a mention for two who are no longer with us - David Nicholson who departed this life in August and Desert Orchid who died peacefully at the ripe old age of twenty seven.

It all starts again tomorrow with the Ludlow Golf Club Claiming Hurdle at 2.00pm.

Sandown Betfred Gold Cup meeting

Tomorrow the Betfred Gold Cup meeting brings down the curtain on another jumps season, one of the wettest I can remember, although all that heavy going seems a long time ago now.

The Celebration Chase over two miles is due off at 2.40. Dempsey would be the choice if Carl Llewellyn's stable was in better form but he hasn't had a winner for the best part of a month. I'm passing over River City who is likely to be feeling the effects of travelling back from Punchestown earlier in the week and taking a chance with Yes Sir who returned to form when winning well at Ayr last weekend over two miles four furlongs. His front running style will be an asset around here.

The Gold Cup has attracted just eleven runners but looks competitive nonetheless. A number of these have had a busy season. Henry Daly's Alderburn is the selection; he's fairly fresh, carries the minimum ten stones and will act on the ground.

Early next week I'll write a review of the jumps season as the flat looks forward to the Guineas meeting at Newmarket.

Punchestown Festival - Tuesday

Eight runners go to post for tomorrow's Kerrygold Champion Chase due off at 4.05. According to official ratings the three to concentrate on are Nickname, Newmill and River City. Nickname has done most of his winning on soft ground; at this stage the going looks like being good. Good ground will certainly suit Newmill who won this race last year by fifteen lengths, having previously won the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in a fast time. This year he hasn't quite performed up to that level, finishing fourth behind Voy Por Ustedes at Cheltenham. Newmill is the top rated horse here and is priced up as 3/1 second favourite behind Nickname in The Sporting Life tissue show - decent value for a horse that will have his conditions. In the same show River City is quoted at 12/1. That's looks big for a horse that will also relish conditions, tends to come to hand at this time of year and finished third in front of Newmill at Cheltenham last time. I favour Newmill to win; River City represents each way value at 12/1 if the eight go to post.

Ayr Scottish National meeting

A number of the twenty four runners declared for tomorrow's Scottish Grand National have had a long season. I'm putting up Malcolm Jefferson's Classic Capers as a horse who should run well at a decent each way price (currently 33/1 with Ladbrokes). Last year's winner Run For Paddy looks like a horse that has been laid out for the race but the fact the yard hasn't had a winner for over three weeks is a considerable negative.

On paper the opener at 1.55 is between Poquelin and Pouvoir. Poquelin is the top rated horse and will be priced accordingly. He looked anything but an easy ride when finishing third to Punjabi at Kempton in February. Since then he has finished a creditable sixth in the Triumph but jumped poorly. Pouvoir has 7lbs to find but he likes to race prominently and I favour him to turn over the probable favourite.

The Future Champion Novices' Chase looks a hot affair. The better ground will suit David Pipe's Buena Vista and he's won over the distance. Faasel ran second to Aces Four over three miles at Aintree last week and may not have had enough time to recover. I take Paul Nicholls' Natal to win this event.

Freds go free at Sandown

With the Grand National being run a week later than usual, the end of the National Hunt season has a peculiarly condensed feel. The Scottish Grand National meeting starts tomorrow at Ayr on good to firm ground with small fields prevailing. Next week the Punchestown Festival takes place over in Ireland and then the mixed Betfred meeting at Sandown acts as the final curtain.

A snippet in Alan Lee's Diary column today informs us that on the Friday Sandown will 'admit free anyone who can prove his first name is Fred.'

I've just asked Mrs. Tips to send a letter to our home address with the addressee as one Mr. Frederick Tips. 'What's actually in the letter?' I hear my three readers enquire. I don't know - I haven't received it yet.

'Right...' said Fred.

Notes from the National

Here's a few thoughts that crossed my mind while watching the 2007 Grand National on television...

The start was an absolute shambles; no better than last year and probably worse in that the starter, looking like he'd just walked in from the set of 'Foyle's War', missed several good opportunities to let them go before eventually performing the task he was employed for.

As always in the National, the bookmakers shorten the vast majority of their prices on the day. The advice for punters has to be take the price when you strike your bet. The only horse I noted drifting was eventual fifth Liberthine from 33/1 to 40/1.

It was surprising to see Monkerhostin backed in to 8/1 co-favourite. Granted, he'd run a decent race in the Gold Cup, but he's not the biggest individual or the best of jumpers. He was pulled up fairly early on. Richard Johnson told the BBC afterwards that the horse had landed on one of the fences and frightened himself but he'd be back next year. If he is, I won't be backing him.

I was convinced Simon, who looked to have taken the preliminaries worse than the majority, needed soft ground to be seen at his best but he was running a huge race and looked an unlucky faller. He's one to bear in mind for next year, as would be the third Slim Pickings and Bewleys Berry. I fear that next year age will be catching up with Longshanks and Philson Run.

Peter Bowen later reported that McKelvey had ruptured a tendon and that had probably cost the horse the race. Connections are bound to be eyeing next year's running.

Years ago Nick Mordin said something along the lines of never back a horse wearing blinkers in this race. I don't know how long it is since a horse wearing blinkers has won, but that put me off Billyvoddan in particular.

Finally congratulations to my daughter (Baby Tips) who selected the winner, on the advice of Mrs. Tips. She has promised one of her raps as a celebration (that's Baby Tips, you understand, not Mrs. Tips). Please, no.

John Smith's People's Race

The BBC's coverage of the Grand National meeting commences at 1.00 tomorrow afternoon.

The People's Race, in which ten amateur riders chosen from the public race over a distance of nine furlongs, is scheduled for around 1.10-1.15. This will be a race worth watching, although at this stage it's not clear if the race will be shown live.

Current 2/1 favourite with bookmaker Ladbrokes is Michael Sweeney, a 47 year old plumber from Manchester. He will be riding Instructor, a horse that has won six times at around this distance.

Well done to all the rookie riders who have trained hard over the past two and a half months; they will all surely have the thrill of a lifetime tomorrow, win or lose.

Grand National selections

Last night, with this week's copy of The Weekender at my side, I went through the forty declared National runners and came up with a list of six possibles. Here they are in the order I think they'll finish.

1. Point Barrow - has an excellent profile in terms of age, weight and form. Acts on the ground. In an open race, the statistics point to this horse as the most likely winner.
2. McKelvey - tipped up on this blog three weeks ago when priced at 40/1. Stays, handles the ground, has jumped the fences previously. Reasonable each way value at 20/1.

3. Numbersixvalverde - last year's winner is a sound jumper who would prefer more cut in the ground. Has solid place claims.

4. Bewleys Berry - looks a National type, has jumped these fences previously and the stable is now in form. Reasonable each way value at around 25/1.

5. Longshanks - goes well fresh, jumped the fences previously. Concern he's suffered a bruised foot in the last fortnight. Priced at around 25/1.
6. Liberthine - mare with a good completion record over the course. Not absolutely certain to stay but you could argue that is factored into the price at 33/1. Place claims if she stays.

And finally, an over priced no hoper for the romantics amongst you... The Outlier. Good luck!

Aintree selections - Friday

Friday is Ladies' Day at Aintree but the winners look difficult to pick out.

In the opener at 2.00 Ungaro will appreciate the good ground and has a decent chance if reproducing the form shown when winning the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day. The stable has been a little in and out of form and, with that in mind, I'm prepared to forgive his run at Cheltenham behind Denman. Likely favourite Turko is not the best of jumpers, while top rated Faasel has done most of his winning around two miles but will be a danger to all if he stays. Ungaro is guaranteed to stay so he gets the vote.

Wichita Lineman won impressively at Cheltenham, is the form horse in the 2.35 and will be priced accordingly. Massini's Maguire seemed to benefit from front running tactics when winning the Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle at Cheltenham but had previously appeared inconsistent; he's not one I'd trust implicitly. Paul Nicholls thinks Silverburn will improve following his sixth behind Massini's Maguire and appeals as the alternative should the favourite's price be too short for your liking.

I was surprised to see Well Chief has never won over two and a half miles. Nonetheless on official ratings he is the top horse by a considerable margin and is the one to beat in the John Smith's Melling Chase at 3.10. Crozan is interesting in that he was running a big race at a big price when falling at Cheltenham last time. Here he wears first time blinkers and may offer some each way value provided eight or more go to post. He could be anything but trainer Nicky Henderson thinks highly of him.

Aintree selections - Thursday

This Aintree meeting always presents a bit of a conundrum. Four weeks have passed since the Cheltenham Festival (most years it's only three). To what extent can we expect Cheltenham form to be repeated? Will the main protagonists have had time to recover from their exertions last month? Add to that the fact that the courses are markedly different and you have a number of unknowns to throw into the melting pot.

In the 3.10 I'm sticking with Katchit. This might be one trip to the well too many, but I'm prepared to take the risk following his impressive win in the Triumph Hurdle. Liberate, who finished second to Katchit at Cheltenham, is the top rated horse on both Racing Post ratings and official handicap ratings in the 4.55. He's the selection in that race; the quicker ground should suit.

The first race at 2.00 has six runners and looks a rerun of the World Hurdle in which Black Jack Ketchum fell early on. On decent ground I predict Black Jack Ketchum, with McCoy on board, will win but he's not a horse I'd take a short a price about.

The Betfair Bowl at 2.35 only has five runners but looks trappy. Turpin Green has run well at this course in the past and, following his decent third in the Gold Cup, could spring a surprise.

Grand National build up starts

Two Nationals dominate the racing week - the Irish National at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday and the Grand National at Aintree next Saturday.

At Fairyhouse Noel Chance's Distant Thunder appears to have decent prospects, having been beaten two short heads into third place on his last run in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival. Prior to that effort, the horse hadn't seen a racecourse for 125 days so you could assume there's perhaps some improvement to come. Richard Johnson takes the ride; he'll be keen to keep in with his future father-in-law by winning this valuable race.

The top class Aintree meeting starts on Thursday, hosts Ladies' Day on Friday and builds up to the Grand National itself on Saturday. Most bookmakers will offer a free bet of some sort provided you are a new customer and are prepared to open an account with them. For example, for those interested, Ladbrokes will give new customers a free £5 bet on the National provided they bet £5 on the race before next Friday; the promotional code TXTGN has to be quoted. The Online Betting Guide gives a comprehensive listing of free bets available together with a preview of the race, a winner finding tool and all the latest news.

For the Grand National, I tend to favour a horse that has jumped the fences previously, can handle the ground and can stay. I've already mentioned McKelvey who looks worth an each way interest at this stage provided your bookmaker is offering 'no run no bet'. Two others I will consider seriously in the coming days are Liberthine and Bewleys Berry.

The Roodee and Gary Lineker

I've just returned from a couple of days in Chester with the family. It's years since I've been on The Roodee, the oldest racecourse in Britain; organised racing was taking place there in 1540 according to the local museum. I couldn't resist spending a few minutes there on a glorious spring day - this photo is taken about two and a half furlongs from the finish, looking back towards the stands. Preparations for the meeting in May appeared well under way.

The thought of having to spend the evening in a hotel making coherent conversation with the family led me to do some rather stupid - I purchased a copy of The Sunday Telegraph. Much to my surprise, it contained some wry comment. It also contained an article by Gary Lineker bemoaning the fact that the BBC had lost the rights to live coverage of the FA Cup and England matches to their arch rivals at ITV. Call me a cynic, but do I detect a hint of sour grapes? Mr. Lineker, an ex professional footballer, tells us 'The chequebook always wins, with little sense of what damage might be done as a long-term consequence.' As a fan of lowly Wrexham football club, let me say you'll find little sympathy in these quarters, Gary. Since the advent of The Premiership, it appears to me that the people with the money have called all the shots.

One year old

I've been writing this blog for one year now, over 160 articles with some winners and losers along the way. When I started I had the rather modest ambition to keep publishing longer than The Sportsman. By way of a celebration, my teenage daughter (Baby Tips) composed the following MC. If, like me, you don't know what an MC is, I am informed that indicates you're rather old.

Happy birthday to GeeDee

His blog goes down in history

Getting more news every day

As people read what he has to say.

PG's Tips is one year old

His good advice is worth some gold

Gets updates on the racing news

Sorts his blog then has a snooze.

Next there is his other half

Mrs Tips, they have a laugh

They do make a beautiful pair

Following racing everywhere.

Mrs Tips, she makes the tea

Then mends the roof, how tough is she?

While Gee reads form in his bath chair

Getting old and losing his hair.

Many happy returns to PG's Tips

GeeDee then sits down and sips

His cup of tea, you can hear the cogs

Turning as he thinks about blogs.

This was written by Helen Dee

GeeDee's daughter, class is she

If you wanna hear her style of rhyme

Check out mc squared, she'll last all time.

Ascot and Uttoxeter

Recent news in a nutshell - Tom Scudamore has been appointed stable jockey to David Pipe, the Lincoln lottery takes place tomorrow at Newcastle while Ascot informs racegoers that certain areas of the course will be inaccessible due to 'remedial work' being carried out. No doubt this work will be completed in time for the royal meeting in June.

In the competitive looking opener at Ascot (2.30) tomorrow I'm interested in Katies Tuitor. I saw this horse win in impressive fashion at Kempton over six months ago. Since then the horse has won once again at Sandown but hasn't been out for five months, probably on account of the wet winter we're just emerging from. With better ground and the Brendan Duke stable in good form, I feel this horse can make his presence felt, although this looks a tough race and he'll need to be on form. Earlier in the season the trainer had indicated a race at the Punchestown Festival was the aim.

Alan King's Katess runs in the mares' bumper, the last race at Uttoxeter (5.30) and needs to be forgiven a below par effort last time at Fakenham. Prior to that she had finished fourth in a listed event at Cheltenham on heavy ground - one of those in front was Sophocles who was second in the Cheltenham bumper. The better ground here should suit.

I don't follow the flat particularly closely. Nick Mordin, writing in The Weekender, puts forward Forty Licks and Kandidate as a couple of horses at fancy prices against the big two in the Dubai World Cup, namely Invasor and Discreet Cat. With only seven in the field, a falsely run race could develop giving a surprise result.

John Smith's People's Race

The Grand National apart, the Aintree race that has really caught the public's imagination this year is The John Smith's People's Race, a flat race which will be contested by ten amateur riders chosen from the general public just a couple of short months ago.

The race itself will be run on the day of the Grand National, with the winner donating prize money to the charity of their choice.

Follow the ups and downs of these rookie riders at http://www.johnsmiths.co.uk/promos/peoplesrace/index.htm

Daily Mirror reporter Ann Gripper has been following events closely on her blog at http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/thepeoplesrace/anngripper

Those cunning bookie chappies at Ladbrokes are offering prices on the riders but as we don't know which horses they'll be riding or the weight the horses will be carrying, at this stage a watching brief is advised.

Looking for a National bet...

My British Horseracing Board fixture list informs me that the Grand National, the world's most famous race, is watched by over 600 million people worldwide. The trouble is, following the sad demise of Nil Desperandum at Uttoxeter, I have been struggling to find something which makes much appeal from a betting perspective and there's now less than three weeks to go.

That changed on Saturday when Peter Bowen's Mckelvey ran a good trial, winning a three mile handicap hurdle at Bangor. This horse had previously finished a creditable sixth in the Becher Chase over the National fences in November. Stamina would appear his strong suit as he has also won the English Summer National at Uttoxeter over an extended four mile trip.

The 40/1 currently available on Stan James' ante post list looks tempting, although he'll need a few higher in the handicap to drop out to be guaranteed a run.

Newbury on Saturday

Cheltenham seems an age ago (see picture) and the Aintree Grand National meeting seems an age away. Traditionally this time of year sees press coverage swing towards the flat. The Winter Derby takes place at Lingfield tomorrow and The Lincoln Handicap, the first big turf flat race of the season, takes place at Newcastle next weekend.

Two mares from the north have caught my eye in the 2.55 at Newbury tomorrow. Front running More Likely has a little to find on official handicap ratings but is the Racing Post's top rated horse in this race and makes plenty of appeal each way priced at around 12/1 in Friday's tissue show. Peter Beaumont's Cloudless Dawn is quoted at 7/1; that looks decent value, particularly as Paul Nicholls' Bold Fire is likely to be vying for favouritsm but has some questions about her jumping to answer.

I'm interested to see Paul Webber's Appleaday declared in the novice hurdle due off at 4.05. Appleaday was an intended runner in the Champion Bumper but he makes his hurdling debut here instead. He would offer some each way value at 20/1 or bigger; Peter Bowen's Special Envoy is the top rated horse.

Teachers in trouble at the races

The Times has reported that teachers from Sandford Special School in Gloucestershire were in trouble yesterday when it emerged that as part of an 'in service training day', they had all attended Cheltenham races on Gold Cup day, with the trip being paid for from school funds.

The total cost of the trip came in at £1,600. The acting head defended the decision to go racing, saying staff had met for breakfast and then a group meeting (probably to go through the card and compare selections) before making their way to the course.

Gloucestershire County Council has ordered a full investigation; rumours that the investigation will focus primarily on why the majority of the staff failed to back Kauto Star in the Gold Cup are wide of the mark.

Festival feedback

This has been one of my better Cheltenham Festivals, if not my best.

At the track on Wednesday it was significantly less crowded in the Tattersalls enclosure than in previous years. A stall charging £7.00 a burger was noted doing a roaring trade. I was disappointed to see Well Chief fall at the second in the Champion Chase. There is something inherently unsatisfying when one of the main players falls early in proceedings; I'm sure connections of Black Jack Ketchum would agree. Denman was impressive while Kauto Star's victory in the Gold Cup was the right result.

Two horses caught the eye in the Champion Bumper. Sophocles came from a different parish to finish second and may well have won had he been ridden nearer the pace while Victor Dartnall's Lodge Lane looked like the winner until completely failing to negotiate the home turn.

From the punting perspective, five winners from fifteen recommendations gives a strike rate of 33.3%. A £10 level stake wager on all my Festival selections is showing a profit of £64.50; the rate of return on turnover is 43%. To all those people constantly berating my tips, let me just say these look half decent figures to me. To everyone else, I would urge you not to be deceived; I'm not usually as good as this - normal service will be resumed in due course.

Cheltenham selections - Friday

Tomorrow is the final day of the 2007 Cheltenham Festival. Many in racing believe Kauto Star to be the best horse in the Gold Cup and hopefully they'll be proven right. I take Kauto Star to win chasing's Blue Riband.

The Triumph Hurdle, due off at 2.00, is traditionally a rough race and not one that I would ordinarily get involved in. However Katchit has served this blog well over the winter months so I'm sticking with him now.

Flight Leader's third in the Cleeve Hurdle behind Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever looks the best form on offer in the Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle; this horse is top rated of the runners in the field with an official handicap rating. Trainer Colin Tizzard's stable has been going through a lean patch of late but he's had a winner in the last couple of days so I'd be hopeful of a good run.

For those of you with money to spare, I know that Evan Williams' Demi Beau has been laid out for the Grand Annual at 4.40. The horse has won over the course and at the distance and will appreciate the better ground. I always thought this horse slightly disappointing when he was with Charlie Mann; perhaps the change of scenery has done the trick.

Then it'll all be over for another year and we'll be looking forward to the Grand National meeting at Aintree...