Weekend notes

Big Zeb bounced back to form to take the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown earlier today; the trainer feels he has now sorted a problem the horse had with ringbone on his off-fore. This evening Ladbrokes bet 7/1 Colm Murphy's charge for the Champion Chase.

The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.

Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.

Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.

Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.

One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...

Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!

Festival Trials Day

With forecasters predicting temperatures in the region of minus three tonight, tomorrow's meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter are all subject to 8.00 am inspections; Cheltenham has the frost covers in place so looks to have the best chance of staging racing, the highlight being the Argento Chase at 2.35 with the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) providing good support.

Only seven go to post for the trappy-looking Argento Chase which is run over a trip just short of three and a quarter miles; the bookmakers think it's between three - Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais and Inchidaly Rock. On official ratings Madison Du Berlais (50s for the Gold Cup) is the one to beat but he appears to give his best performances on flat tracks; having said that, the stable is on fire with six winners from fourteen runners in the past two days. With Denman heading for the Aon Chase at Newbury (rather than running here), Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Inchidaly Rock (5/1 favourite for the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival) of the two Nicholls runners - this one has won over course and distance but has a bit to find with a couple of his opponents. Carruthers (33/1 for the Gold Cup) is a trail-blazer who does it all from the front and is at his best dominating in small fields - at the back of my mind though I can't help recalling his fourth in last year's RSA Chase where, over this course and distance, he made a serious blunder four out that effectively put paid to his chance. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss last year's winner Joe Lively either from Colin Tizzard's in-form yard - for those prepared to take the chance he could prove very good value. Connections of Carruthers have indicated they'll consider the Gold Cup if things work out here and he looks the percentage call so gets the vote - his lack of chasing experience in comparison to the rest of the field is the concern. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win this in the last ten years.

Thirteen go in a most competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle. That tough little course and distance winner Lie Forrit (20/1 for the World Hurdle) makes the journey down from Hawick and is likely to start favourite. Katchit is the top-rated animal in the field but there has to be a concern about him seeing out the trip, a comment that also applies to David Pipe's Mr Thriller. Both Tatenen and Tidal Bay revert to hurdles after experiencing trouble jumping fences while Kennel Hill should be given a wide berth following his display of petulance with a race at his mercy two weeks ago. Course and distance winner Fair Along is respected and looks overpriced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes this evening but Time For Rupert (33/1 for the World Hurdle) is one that I like. I tipped him each way for the Ascot Hurdle but he finished out with the washing - the next time I missed him and he won at 16/1. He's well-regarded by connections - I'll back him each-way provided the odds are big enough.

The market tells us the 3.10 is between Nicky Henderson's General Miller (20/1 for the Neptune at the Festival) and Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm (12/1 for the Neptune) - the word is that General Miller is one of the stable's best novices. You pay your money and takes your choice. If you held a gun to my head, I'd go with Royal Charm but, in search of some value, I'll consider Restless Harry whose second in the Challow at Newbury on heavy going indicates this trip shouldn't be a problem. Stratford-on-Avon trainer Robin Dickin has told the Weekender he has his charge in 'better shape' for this test than for the Challow.

Pistolet Noir (10/1 second favourite for the Triumph at the Festival) looks the one to beat in the opener but he's likely to start odds-on.

Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - several more Cheltenham clues are likely to be uncovered with the Festival little more than six weeks away.

Festival clues...

The Festival clues season has started in earnest. At Haydock yesterday reigning champion hurdler Punjabi was beaten fair and square by Medermit on ground that was probably soft enough - Alan King's charge, in receipt of four pounds, has now finished in front of Punjabi in his last two races. Beaten a neck by Go Native in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle (after being hampered at the last), Medermit goes straight to the Champion and looks to have a live chance - certainly his price this evening (16/1) makes more appeal than 6/1 Go Native. I wouldn't rush to write off Punjabi either who is also a 16/1 chance (with Skybet) for the showpiece.

Solwhit's victory earlier today in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has seen both Paddy Power and Boylesports install him as their new 3/1 favourite for the Cheltenham equivalent in March. It may be worth noting this quote from trainer Charles Byrnes, "But that's him today - take it or leave it, there's no improvement to come."

Henry de Bromhead's An Cathaoir Mor won the Arkle Chase but isn't certain to make it to Cheltenham. Books have reacted by shortening Captain Cee Bee (beat this winner at Naas)
and Sizing Europe (stablemate of this winner).

Diamond Harry's chase debut at Haydock yesterday went as smooth as you like - Nick Williams' charge is now 5/1 second favourite for the RSA Chase behind Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns.

Nick Mordin's column in this week's Weekender highlights the fact that in the past five years the animal with the highest Racing Post rating has won the Festival bumper on four occasions. So far this season the mare Araucaria has the highest RP rating obtained in a bumper (132) - Nick helpfully points out that at 16/1 she represents decent value. That led me to wonder when was the last time a filly / mare won the race. I was at the track to see Hairy Molly win the 2006 renewal but on checking the formbook was somewhat disconcerted to discover that Hairy Molly was actually a bay gelding... I didn't have to go back too much further - in 2004 two mares fought out the finish with Total Enjoyment beating the Jonjo O'Neill trained Refinement two and a half lengths. The second that day returned a year later to finish fourth in the same race, ridden on that occasion by one K. Fallon.

In an article in Saturday's Guardian, Michael Owen describes racing as his 'main passion outside of football' so he may make it to this year's Festival but he says he'll 'never want to train'. Look out for more Festival clues next Saturday at the Festival Trials Day...

Ascot and Haydock

Tomorrow's feature at Ascot is the Victor Chandler Chase which is run over two miles one furlong. Twist Magic did this blog a favour when making all to win the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December; he's the top-rated horse here and this evening is generally priced up the 11/8 favourite. Although blessed with plenty of ability, TM has never been one to trust implicitly; having said that, I've seen a couple of reports this week claiming he's now a reformed character. Trainer Paul Nicholls has expressed some slight reservations about the suitability of this track for his charge. On grounds of value I'm considering opposing him here with Nicky Henderson's Petit Robin - Tony McCoy takes the ride as stable jockey Barry Geraghty is engaged at Haydock. Petit Robin was third behind Master Minded in last year's Queen Mother at Cheltenham and just for a fraction of a second looked as though he might cause an upset as they rounded the home turn; since then he has taken the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on his seasonal debut and can be expected to come on for that run. Looking through the form I think he may have a slight preference for going left-handed but the stiff track and soft ground should suit, even though all his victories to date have come on flat tracks. Throughout the week Coral has stood apart from other layers offering 11/4 Petit Robin - I'll take a chance at that price.

I wouldn't be inclined to oppose Whiteoak in the mares' hurdle while Francois Doumen tends to do well with the horses he brings over at this time of year. Moneywise would be worth a second look in the opener but Spiv is probably best watched in the 1.30.

Only four go to post in the opener at Haydock where the going is reported as soft, heavy in places on the chase course. Nicky Henderson's Radium is likely to go off odds-on while this represents a set up in class for Peddlers Cross. Donald McCain rates his charge highly - Peddlers Cross gets the vote.

A tentative suggestion in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase is Venetia Williams' Never So Blue (apparently owned by 'The Moody Blues'). This one was well-backed the last time in the London National at Sandown but didn't appear to stay the trip. Earlier today jockey Aidan Coleman pointed out in a guest blog at Racing UK that the horse has already won at Haydock; he rates his mount 'a proper stayer' and it was the Sandown course that didn't suit. I'll consider a small each-way interest at around the 12/1 mark.

Only four in the novices' chase at 2.20 but it looks decidedly tricky; the eventual winner is likely to end up near the head of the market for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham on March 17th. Diamond Harry has won over the course and over the distance but tackles fences for the first time in public - the reports are he's schooled well. Alan King's Bensalem is well-regarded but was held up in the recent cold spell. The chances are that comment will also apply to the horse with the most chasing experience in the field, Knockara Beau. KB is a horse I like but he has to give three pounds to Bensalem and seven to the other two. Peter Bowen's Mumbles Head finished four lengths behind Albert Bartlett winner Weapon's Amnesty in a three mile novice chase at Newcastle the last time - the shorter trip here should help; on official ratings he's bang there with a chance. This may well go to the horse that jumps the best - on the grounds of value I'll chance Knockara Beau.

Current champion hurdler Punjabi will be expected to beat his three opponents (one, Afsoun, from the same stable) on the way to defending his title at Cheltenham in March while the feature here is the Peter Marsh Chase in which Mon Mome heads the weights; that one has the Grand National in April as his target. Cloudy Lane won this last year carrying eleven stones ten and is respected. In a competitive renewal course and distance winner According To Pete will be popular - if I get involved I'll take a small each-way interest in Mr Strachan (12/1 with Paddy Power this evening). This one, from a yard that had a winner at Catterick earlier today, has a nice racing weight but a tendency to put in the odd poor jump here and there. Let's hope the application of first-time cheekpieces help eradicate the errors.

Racing returns

Jim Best's 5/1 shot Anak won the first jump race run for thirteen days when taking the opener at Kempton yesterday. Two and a half hours later Andy Turnell's Micheal Flips took a competitive-looking renewal of the Lanzarote with the minimum of fuss, having eight lengths to spare over 9/2 favourite Duc De Regniere at the line. This evening the winner is quoted a 20/1 shot with William Hill for the Totesport Trophy at Newbury on February 13th.

At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.

Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.

We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?

Jumping comes back at Kempton

Tomorrow Kempton looks set to host the first jumps meeting since Plumpton on January 3rd, the highlight being the Lanzarote Hurdle (run over two miles five furlongs these days) at 2.45, while Huntingdon hold an inspection at 8.00 in the morning. The first question to ask after such a protracted break is how have the various trainers managed to cope with the wintry conditions. Paul Nicholls has managed to keep his string ticking over; at the start of the year, as in the past, he inoculated all his charges against equine flu - traditionally this is a quiet time for the stable. Nicky Henderson sent out three winners on Southwell's all-weather bumper card on Wednesday but in this week's Weekender Alan King, whose string were slower out of the blocks than usual in the autumn, concedes that the snow is likely to have set him back again.

With so many unknowns, I intend to play cautiously and will give the form a few days to settle down again. Thirteen go to post in the Lanzarote, with the in-from Nicky Henderson operation looking to hold a strong hand with Tasheba and Duc De Regniere. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides the former but it would be unwise to discount the Duc - Tanya Stevenson (@TheFemale) pointed out on Twitter earlier in the day that the horse has won all his three starts at the track; in addition claimer David Bass takes off a handy-looking seven pounds. In my book one who could have more to come is Aachen - I was prepared to consider an each-way dabble at around 12/1 but he's priced up at 8s this evening and has been off the track a while so I'll watch his progress but won't get involved.

The 12.55 sees the eagerly-awaited chasing debut of Nicky Henderson's Mad Max. Eighth behind Mikael D'Haguenet in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, Mad Max is a giant of a horse who should certainly benefit from jumping a fence. Having said that, he's had a couple of breathing operations since that run - I'm never keen on taking short odds about a horse who has had such an operation and returns to race on soft / heavy going. There's only five in the field and I know I'm going out on a limb but I think there's more to come from Nick Gifford's Dee Ee Williams - I'll consider opposing if tonight's tissue price of 5/1 is available on the day.

With an official rating of 144 Kennel Hill sets the standard in the novices' hurdle at 1.30 but it's interesting to see the Nicholls yard reoppose with The Minack who was beaten fifteen lengths by KH over three furlongs further in Tell Massini's race at Cheltenham. I tipped The Minack the last time; at the likely prices on offer I may give him another chance as he lost any hope with a howler three out. Trainer Nick Gifford had a good word for Ashleys Lad.

Another Twitter titbit from @TheFemale points out that in the finale only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years. The Weekender reports that Nick Gifford has kept his string going in the snow - provided the stable's runners have run respectably beforehand I'll consider taking a chance with Tullamore Dew.

Those looking for a slightly different approach after the cold spell may want to note the following trainers whose horses ran well enough on the all-weather at Southwell earlier in the week: N. J. Henderson, Mrs L. Wadham (included 33/1 winner), C. Mann, C. T. Pogson, J. Howard Johnson, G.L. Moore, D.E. Cantillon, I.Williams and N.T. Chance. Good luck!

Figures in the snow

The big freeze has ensured a paucity of form figures for jumping fans to study this week. Here are some alternative figures that have come to my attention recently...

William Hill reported that on blank racing days they were seeing a ten-fold increase in the number of bets taken on virtual racing. Julian Muscat's piece in Wednesday's Times quotes David Hood, William Hill PR director: "In the last week alone we have taken over 300,000 individual bets."

Tom Scudamore, who missed a double at Plumpton last Sunday as the result of a suspension, informed readers of the same newspaper on Friday he hadn't earned a penny since December 29th and was roughly £10,000 out of pocket. Riding fees are reported to have risen recently by 3% but, of course, if the weather doesn't relent, an additional 3% of nothing equates to absolutely nothing.

Racing for Change launched a ten-point plan with the aim of modernising the sport; a tweet to me from @Mulldog quite rightly intimated it's likely to take a lot more than ten points. The recommendation that appears to have received most press coverage from the RfC report is the proposal that in spring British racecourses will look to trial decimal odds in an attempt to attract younger people to the races. Apparently 11/10ths of the younger generation just don't get fractions.

On Friday Alan King's Karabak was well-backed for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. He's now quoted at 6s and 7s (from 10s).

Finally I'm informed the highlight of Bonhams Spring sale is 'a highly important racing painting by Munnings'. 'The Start, Newmarket' is scheduled to go under the hammer on Wednesday 17th March with the price estimate quoted as £500,000 - £700,000. Excuse me, old boy, doesn't that clash with Champion Chase day?

Guest blogger - ex-boss goes to Chepstow's Welsh National meet

A couple of weeks ago an unusual thing happened. My former boss, apparently enjoying a blissful retirement now (although I only learned of that a couple of weeks ago) contacted me straight out of the blue, asking for a view on the Welsh National at Chepstow as he happened to be going to that meeting over the Christmas break. Immediately I was presented with a dilemma - should I go for 'payback' and deliberately tip Mr. N a couple of duff horses (Dream Alliance looked to have plenty going for it - form figs of PUPP, off the track for 18 months and then second place in a Class 3 handicap hurdle seven weeks previously) or should I do the honourable thing, put in the homework and then watch the selections run in the manner I thought the duff ones would. After considerable deliberation I took the latter option and, at the same time, secured Mr. N's agreement that he would write a report on his day at the Chepstow races.

For the record, I've edited the original in places, leaving in just one or two disparaging remarks about the blog, just to give the piece that air of authenticity.

Here's the report...

I have been anticipating for several months now the brother’s invitation to go to the Welsh Grand National meeting at Chepstow less than two National trips from his home in South Wales, so it was good to hear that racing was actually on just seconds after we shelled out our cash to join the large and enthusiastic crowd. Armed with a good commentary on the likely National field from PG Tips, and a good check on the rest of the runners that morning, hopes were high for a good day.

As the only regular, if now lapsed, punter in the group comprising one sister one daughter and the one and only Mrs N I dutifully explained how to read form, what C and D meant, the significance of the going and that the usual suspects such as AP McCoy and P Nicholls were unlikely to go away empty-handed. Against my better judgement I was persuaded to join in the spirit of the day and bet on the first race which I had studiously ignored as it was a six horse beginners race. Swiftly spotting the value I opted for Starburst Diamond and, repaying my faith, he was in just the right position coming to the turn but forgot about the impending jump. There were only two fallers at the entire meeting - I had picked one of them. Now I know why in the past I stuck to the Flat. My horses need all the help they can get; putting obstacles in the way doesn’t help. To add insult to injury the sister backed the winner, Mark the Book, based on the sensible reasoning that she has a friend called Mark!

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350833,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 1

Much better field for the second race which I had studied and concluded that Buck the Legend was as good a chance as any and at a reasonable price. Daughter meanwhile opted for Magic Sky persuaded not so much by the tempting odds and promising form but because the jockey’s name was the same as one of her best friends. She soon learned that form and experience are better guides than the jockey’s name as Magic Sky trailed the field for most of the race whilst Buck the Legend was handily placed throughout. In the long and punishing finishing straight I was just explaining to the daughter that Mr Tips had suggested that the course was too tough for any horse to come from behind to win, as Magic Sky found a sprinter's turn of foot and ran away with the race. A veteran of two Royal Ascots including one where she actually watched some racing, this was her first winner and a nice lucrative one at that.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350834,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 2

The brother (whom we whisper quietly is a banker) was enjoying his role of taking all of our money and investing it on our behalf in a range of sure fire winners offering enticing returns so it was no surprise that on the next race we all lost our investment whilst he backed an 8-1 winner Money Order not because it was a crafty JP McManus raider but because it had money in the name!

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350835,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 3

In the big race I referred to Mr Tips’s commentary and followed his advice looking for a good e/w bet and opted for one of his list of potentials, Kornati Kid, but also slipped a little bet on Silver by Nature based on my own research. The Kid was prominent for a long time raising hope and tracked Silver by Nature for most of the time. By the turn for the straight the Kid was shot but Silver by Nature had moved up to dispute the lead and had plenty in hand looking nailed on to repay my faith. All the grey had to do was clear the last which of course it hit, lost momentum and the race. A large family loss all round.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,347307,00.html

Sang Bleu looked a Nicholls/McCoy certainty in the next race but the odds prohibitive so I intended to pass until I was told I had to have a go so I went with the favourite on the nose, where else? The wife meanwhile, unable to bet her preferred tip the non runner Hector’s House (don’t ask), switched at the last minute to Me Voici which of course beat mine in a driving finish after McCoy had somehow managed to hit the last hurdle probably burdened with my expectations.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350836,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 4

Astonishingly, or inevitably depending on who you are, exactly the same thing happened in the next race. The wife, getting the hang of it now, beat me to the McCoy mount so I looked for value lower down the pecking order and opted for Volador which had good form and had raced here before. It proved my only drag of the day at 9-2 and my third 2nd place whilst Mrs N cleaned up again with Be There in Five.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350837,00.html

Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 5

And finally to put the tin hat on it the brother showing just how banking works put a few bob of his previous winnings on Crannagmore Boy which romped home for his second win of the day. Mine is still running I think. Why did he pick this one? Because it was running in gold, the colour that Wolves play in and his mate supports Wolves!!! From now on I am choosing horses by the colour of the jockeys socks - I can’t do much worse.

Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350838,00.html

Final Score
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 6

Despite this and the bitter cold, a brilliant day out at a very nice friendly course which even offered decent real ale. There was a fine tribute to the Welsh Guards who turned out to loud applause and Land Of My Fathers was sung beautifully by Sara Kempe before the big race. Shame about the losses. So what’s running tomorrow….

Footnote - I'm thinking of offering Mrs N a month's trial -PG.

Sandown's Tolworth meeting

Cheltenham went ahead today after surviving three (?) inspections. Tomorrow's Tolworth meeting at Sandown has to survive a 7.30 am inspection - 95% of the course isn't covered so it must be odds against racing. I've been hit by a particularly nasty dose of the manflu with the result that I'm bailing out here and now and going straight to bed (with a bottle of Johnnie Walker Black Label). I know this is the first post of the decade and I realise, dear reader, this lays me open to plenty of disrespect on your part - did I hear the term 'wuss' muttered in the background? Quite frankly, I have to say, I'm beyond caring...

Normal service to be resumed as soon as possible....

Two selections for New Year's Day

Firstly, let me take this opportunity to wish all readers a very happy and prosperous new year. I'm pushed for time, so just two selections for tomorrow. At Cheltenham only five go in the Dipper Novices' Chase; Punchestowns won't be much of a price but I'm not inclined to oppose even though there are some talented rivals in the field.

In the 3.35 at Exeter I go for Tocca Ferro. As part of a Racing Post Stable Tour item a couple of months ago trainer Emma Lavelle said the following about her charge: 'We like him... There are certain horses you get that give you that extra special feeling and he would be one of those... I'm dreaming about collecting a big trophy with him.'

The rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle

There's a very good card at Newbury tomorrow with the highlight being the rescheduled Long Walk Hurdle at 2.40. The press has built this up into a match between Big Buck's and Diamond Harry but we can expect improvement from Karabak (who, according to John Francome, nearly blew the stands down after finishing six lengths behind Zaynar in the Coral Ascot Hurdle some six weeks ago) while Fair Along has been known to sulk on occasions in the past but is good on his day. On official ratings Fair Along is the third best horse in this eight runner race, needing to find just three pounds with Diamond Harry, yet Paddy Power offer 25/1 this evening - that has to be worth an each-way dabble with the stable in such good form, provided of course the eight make it to the start. The same layers go 12/1 Karabak which also looks tempting each-way value if you fancy that one. I expect all those taking on the current holder of the World Hurdle title here would have preferred to have done so at Ascot as Big Buck's has never raced right-handed - the snow stopped that taking place.

The Graduation Chase (1.00) looks trappy enough and should prove useful for future reference. At the weights Roll Along should beat these but he disappointed on his first run for Twiston-Davies when an even money favourite at Carlisle. I harbour a suspicion he may just prefer better ground than he's likely to encounter tomorrow.

In the Challow Finian's Rainbow went into many notebooks when winning here by fifteen lengths last month. He has another five furlongs to travel tomorrow but the last time he didn't give the impression that would cause a problem. Others worth a mention include Reve De Sivola, Manyriverstocross and Duke Of Lucca while Kennel Hill ran a stormer at odds of 100/1 when second to Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham just over a fortnight ago.

Welsh National thoughts

A very quick post on tomorrow's Welsh National at Chepstow where twenty are set to face the starter at 2.10 provided the course passes the 8.00 am inspection. Grand National winner Mon Mome heads the weights - the going is reported as soft, heavy in places. A colleague asked me for an opinion a week or so ago - my two against the field are Lucinda Russell's Silver By Nature ('We go there with a serious chance', Weekender 16-20.12.09), priced up at 11/1 with Coral this evening and Philip Hobbs' Kornati Kid ('Great big horse, who could be very good this season if he gets lucky', Racing Post, 19.10.09), priced up at 16/1 by William Hill.

Boxing Day selections

The weather is likely to have its say with many of the scheduled cards, so I've concentrated on the King George meeting at Kempton and added a couple of observations for Wincanton which doesn't have an inspection planned at the time of writing.

My local Ladbrokes has a big sign in the window, encouraging punters to come in and have a bet on 'Kauto Star Day'. I'm a Kauto Star fan and hope to see the great horse win the King George for the fourth time but I won't be backing him at 4/7. I'm going to bet an each-way chance at bigger odds and the three that make most appeal are Barbers Shop, Deep Purple and Nacarat. Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop finished fourth in the Hennessy and has plenty to find on official ratings but this three mile trip should suit better; 18/1 in places is tempting. Deep Purple proved he stays three miles when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and has since won a competitive-looking Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. This is a step up but the handicapper rates him the fourth best horse in the race (behind Kauto, Imperial Commander and Madison Du Berlais). The stable is in form - 14/1 is generally available. I've a mention for front-runner Nacarat as Tom George's stable jockey Sam Thoams has chosen this one rather than Tartak. Nacarat won the Racing Post Chase over course and distance in impressive fashion last February. He clearly likes Kempton but his two runs this season have been dismal; having said that, Tom George's yard is firing again now. I've already taken out a small interest in Barbers Shop; looking at the above, the percentage each-way call appears to be Deep Purple.

The Christmas Hurdle (2.30) is intriguing. Binocular is the best horse in the race but he disappointed badly in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle the last time, a race won by Go Native who reopposes here. That race was something of a tactical affair; once again it's not immediately obvious where the pace will come from. A mention for Starluck, a speedy course and distance winner; he's a horse I like but as a four-year-old looks up against it. The word is Binocular is back to his best but I'm tempted to go with Go Native - Noel Meade has won this race in the past with Harchibald (twice) and Jazz Messenger.

Many will think the Feltham (1.55) is there for Nicky Henderson's French purchase Long Run, receiving weight from all his rivals; the owner's son takes the ride. Having had my fingers burnt in this particular race on a couple of occasions in the past, I'll watch from the sidelines; the Kempton fences are plenty stiff enough for novices learning their trade.

Bellvano, currently second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, is likely to be a short price in the opener. Inventor beat King Olav one and a quarter lengths at Ascot seven weeks ago (Manyriverstocross third); on the bare form King Olav might be expected to reverse placings eight pounds better off but the winner won well enough. Philip Hobbs' Menorah is well regarded and didn't appear to appreciate the set up in trip the last time while course and distance winner Cootehill is likely to race from the front. The winner has come from the first three in the betting eight times in last nine years; Bellvano is the one to beat but I'm going to play King Olav each-way if the price is big enough.

At Wincanton Nick Gifford's Royal Wedding is noted in the 2.20 although the yard hasn't had a winner for well over a month. Some interesting runners in the 3.25 - Ashkazar was sixth in the Boylesports International at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Venetia Williams, another who hasn't been in the best of form, fields four, stable jockey Aidan Coleman opting for Chief Yeoman. Aachen is well regarded but in contrast to most of his opponents this is his first run since the spring. In the concluding bumper I'd be tempted to take a chance with Megastar if not priced up favourite - the last time he had Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall back in fourth and that one has won since; the jock's seven pound claim offsets the penalty incurred for the win.

Rescue required

There is something awful about Christmas.

A typical conversation around this time of year starts with the opening gambit 'What are you doing for Christmas?' In very general terms people tend to reply in one of two ways. The first reply is along the lines of they're going to relatives which means they won't have to worry about the cooking. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to go to the aforementioned relatives but from the gastronomic perspective at least there is some small consolation to be gained and appreciated. The second reply is along the lines of they're having people around. What this *really* means is they would prefer not to have the relatives around and they won't even have the consolation of not having to do the cooking.

As if all that wasn't enough to ruin your Christmas, you know that for months the BBC has charged its EastEnders scriptwriters to build up to yet another disaster / murder that will befall some poor unfortunate on the very evening of Christmas Day itself. I have never worked out why the really big horrors in EastEnders happen on a Christmas Day.

Fortunately the racing is there to keep us half sane. The reason you tend to have to queue to get on your local track on a Boxing Day is self-evident - both the people who went to their relatives for Christmas and those who had their relatives around for Christmas want to get away from their relatives. This year however there is a potential problem on the horizon in the shape of the weather. The 'cold snap' looks set to continue which is likely to spell trouble for the majority of turf fixtures scheduled to race on Boxing Day and heap further misery on those trying to avoid their relatives. Kempton Park has taken the precaution of covering the track but simply isn't anywhere near big enough to cater for all of us desperate to get away from our relatives.

I'll have to watch on telly and hope an each-way wager on 16/1 shot Barbers Shop in the King George can bring some light relief this Christmas time...

The north wind doth blow...

...and we shall have snow. Saturday's cards at Ascot and Newcastle have already fallen to the weather while the meeting at Haydock is subject to an inspection at 8.00 tomorrow morning. The clerk of the course describes himself as 'quietly confident' but, given the predicted temperatures, I'm more cautious. Had Ascot gone ahead, the main attraction would have been the clash between Big Buck's and Diamond Harry in the Long Walk Hurdle. It would have been the first time the two market leaders had raced right-handed, and I'd come up with this cunning plan to bet Philip Hobbs' Fair Along at a big-looking 16/1. Never mind... The Long Walk Hurdle has now been rescheduled for Tuesday 29th December at Newbury.

Should Haydock get the green light, plenty will be looking to solve the feature, the Tommy Whittle Chase, in which fifteen go to post for the three mile event. Keith Reveley's Jass is a horse I like but I suspect this trip may be his absolute minimum - he stayed on well when fourth in the Rehearsal at Newcastle three weeks ago after losing his place three quarters of a mile out. I don't think this track will play to his strengths. One that would be of some interest at a price is Mark The Book. Still a novice, he has had his training problems and didn't race in 2008 due to a tendon injury; prior to that Philip Hobbs thought the horse could go to the top. He gets in here with a racing weight but does look a little short on experience with some battle-hardened opponents in the field. I'll probably watch from the sidelines.

The opener is worth noting, with Howard Johnson's Quwetwo trying fences for the first time. My Moment jumped well to win at Warwick the last time - the fences come thick and fast down the back straight at Warwick. If I play I'll chance Ferdy Murphy's Bedlam Boy. In a recent RP Stable Tour article, his handler said the horse had some wear and tear in the joints but 'a real engine'; he's a natural front-runner, a style that suits this track.

That mention of Warwick reminds me of an offer I saw on a flyer in our local paper. Two adult tickets for £20 to any of the following meets - New Year's Eve, Classic Chase day (Saturday 16th January) and Kingmaker Day (Saturday 13th February). If you want to take up this offer, ring the course (0844 579 3013) and quote the reference 'winterflyer'.

Earlier in the week Richard Johnson rode his 2,000th winner on Fighting Chance at Newbury. There have been several tributes - I liked this piece in Tuesday's Times, written the day before Johnson became only the second jockey to reach this landmark.

With the reduced racing on offer tomorrow, there's the distinct possibility I could get roped into Christmas shopping; I've come up with a cunning wheeze if Mrs T. suggests the unthinkable. Throughout the week I've been sending a daily tweet to My Winning Chance in an attempt to win free entry into a draw to win a racehorse. My name didn't come out of the hat, but I just started dreaming, as you do. Before I knew it, I was on the Allertons website, designing my own racing silks. Think I'm going to have to do a bit more work on that, rather than traipse round the overcrowded city centre shops...

Christmas considerations

From Cheltenham yesterday - the Twiston-Davies outfit seems to have found the key to Khyber Kim who is now 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle in March while Poquelin's clear victory in a competitive-looking Boylesports.com Gold Cup was impressive. The Ryanair Chase at the Festival is his target now for which he's quoted at 5/1. Three pound claimer Danny Cook won't have fond memories of yesterday's race - he took the wrong course on Our Vic and, according to Alistair Down, will now be referred to BHA HQ as this is his second such transgression in the past twelve months.

Over at Doncaster the underrated Graham Lee was seen at his very best, taking the two concluding chases on Watch My Back and Calgary Bay.

For those of us still living in the world of analogue televsion, the news that the Teletext News and Information Service is closing down on December 14th / 15th is little short of a disaster. A reduced racing service continues on Channel 4; I've hung on in there for as long as possible but I think D-day (Digital day) draws ever closer in the Tips' household...

A couple of football related items... Firstly, a mention for the manic Stuart Hall whose football reports are pure joy; he's set to celebrate his eightieth birthday this Christmas Day. Recently asked if he'd ever thought he'd still be working at this ripe old age, Mr. Hall's reply was along the lines of 'I've never considered this work'. Marvellous stuff. Secondly, a colleague in his late twenties recently went into a William Hill shop in a different part of town intent on placing a £2 football accumulator wager. He walked up to the bloke behind the counter, clutching two one pound coins in his sweaty palm, and was promptly asked for ID! When he questioned the cashier (along the lines of 'Eh?'), bloke replied 'Well, I haven't seen you in here before.' Bookmakers knocking back opportunities to make money - it must be the recession.

...and two TV items to conclude with. The BBC's 'Live Sports Personailty of the Year' starts at 7.00 this evening. I shall be watching because, no matter what you think, it takes a special sort of skill to condense a racing year into two minutes forty odd seconds. Clare Balding's Inside Sport interview (entitled 'Kieren Fallon - The Road To Redemption') is likely to be far more interesting and is scheduled for transmission at 11.25pm on Monday evening.

Cheltenham's Boylesports Saturday

The ground rides soft for tomorrow's Boylesports meeting at Cheltenham, with the first race due off at 12.10. Seven go to post in The International which looks at the mercy of top-rated Celestial Halo who is priced up at 8/13 this evening. The current champion hurdler Punjabi makes his seasonal debut here having missed the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle; trainer Nicky Henderson has said recently the horse 'has done plenty of work but is a notoriously stuffy individual', a comment that could equally apply to my mother-in-law. I won't get involved as I'm not inclined to oppose the favourite; his connections have decided not to run Oslot as a pacemaker, an idea which was mooted earlier in the week.

Similarly Zaynar will be long odds on in the finale, the Relkeel. He can't be opposed but again I won't play.

The feature on the card, the Boylesports.com Gold Cup Handicap Chase, is a far more open event with seventeen set to face the starter; the favourite hasn't won this race in the last twelve years. I've been on the lookout for an each-way chance set to carry less than eleven stones. Keith Goldsworthy thinks conditions will suit the ultra-tough Hold Em who gets in here with bottom weight and is 14/1 with Coral; Razor Royale would be worth a second look but I think I'll take a chance with Skippers Brig. Nicky Richards' charge should revel in the testing conditions - William Hill offer 12/1 this evening.

Tom George's horses are only just starting to run better - Je Ne Sais Plus was the yard's first winner for a while when being awarded today's finale at Doncaster in the stewards' room. On ratings his Tell Massini looks the one in the Albert Bartlett Bristol Novices' Hurdle. Both The Minack and Lord Generous are interesting in receipt of three pounds, with preference for the former - I'll indulge if he's priced around the 3/1 mark.

Finally, there are some interesting individuals in the opener. The word appears to be for Ultimate while Olofi's third over course and distance behind Pistolet Noir last month reads well. Hector's House won a seller at Sedgefield on Tuesday but Sergeant Pink may be of more interest following his win on soft ground at Market Rasen nine days ago. I've heard a whisper for George Nympton on the couple of occasions he's run, although he'll have to step up on what he's shown so far to be competitive here. Nick Williams' yard is in good form - I'll consider a small each-way interest.

Postscript - specialist miler Cesare will be interesting to watch as he makes his hurdling debut over two miles in the 1.00 at Doncaster. He may well stay the trip but I wouldn't bet on it...

A couple of small notes...

An article in Friday's Guardian highlighted Channel 4's desire to save money without cutting its racing coverage. Bosses aiming to save £10,000 per programme are examining the manner in which presenters are used - Nick Luck looks set to become anchorman on The Morning Line.

Unfortunately the Racing Post's campaign to try and ensure Tony McCoy was one of the finalists for the 2009 Sports Personality of the Year has failed. McCoy rode his 3,000th winner, Restless D'Artaix, at Plumpton in February, but it would appear that the wider public aren't really all that interested.

A letter from Charlie Flindt of Alresford, Hampshire was published in The Times earlier this week. Apparently Google released its list of 'most searched words and terms' on December 1st, yet included figures for the whole of December. Mr Flindt enquires 'Is there any chance of it publishing all the racing results for the next month?' If only...

Finally, it has taken a long time but I'm starting to realise what many of you know already - that the tips on this blog are not the road to untold riches. Obviously I'm disappointed but you'll be pleased to hear I'm still keeping an eye out for new opportunities... At Liverpool earlier in the week I was fortunate enough to be in a position to give an impromptu concert at the world famous Cavern Club (picture below); halfway through my routine, for some unfathomable reason, the audience started to boo the previous act all over again. I think I could be on the verge of something big...

Tingle Creek day at Sandown

Precautionary inspections have been called for tomorrow's cards at both Sandown and Wetherby; the feature of the day is the Tingle Creek Chase run over two miles at Sandown. Last year's winner Master Minded, beaten by Well Chief at Cheltenham three weeks ago, misses this renewal as, following that surprise defeat, it was discovered he was suffering from a stress fracture to a rib. Five are set to face the starter, including Well Chief, but the race has a very trappy look to it; picking the winner won't be easy. Big Zeb has been marked up favourite but I'm inclined to oppose on two counts. Firstly, his trainer said earlier today he was worried about the soft ground for his charge. Secondly, of the eleven chases this horse has started since December 2007, he has won on four occasions but has notably fallen on four occasions. Failing to complete 36% of the time looks high in anybody's book and Sandown is a course that takes more jumping than most. On official ratings Paul Nicholls' Twist Magic is the one to beat but this horse is not one to trust implicitly. On his day he is very talented but he has run some stinkers in the past and on the odd occasion has shown a reluctance to start. Having said that, Sandown is a course he appears to like as he won this event in 2007 and was in the process of giving stablemate Master Minded a fright when coming to grief two out last year. Well Chief is ten years old, will be eleven in a month's time, but doesn't have a lot of miles on the clock. The trouble connections have had with this horse's legs has been well documented. His defeat of Master Minded the last time reads well, although he was in receipt of ten pounds and the current champion was subsequently found to have a problem. Barry Geraghty appears to have deserted Forpadydeplasterer for Big Zeb; McCoy comes in for a fine-looking spare ride. On official ratings Arkle winner Forpady has enough to make up with three of the field to get competitive. In the last few days I've read a comment that connections were going to use this race to determine whether to go up in distance with their charge - he finished fourth in the 2008 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival which is run over two miles four plus. Mahogany Blaze appears a little outclassed but tactics will play a part in this small field as it doesn't look immediately obvious where the pace is going to come from. A trappy event - provided there are no obvious signs of temperament in the preliminaries, I'll take a chance with top-rated Twist Magic.

Only four in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase in which Emma Lavelle's Crack Away Jack will be expected to prevail against some useful opposition. A race to watch rather than bet on.

Some well known names in the opener - it will be interesting to see how Silverburn fares on his first run for Evan Williams. In a recent stable tour item his handler said, 'We're taking things one day at a time.' He could offer some each-way value for those brave enough to take the chance. Nick Gifford's Alderluck will be popular but former Lanzarote winner Nycteos catches my eye with just ten stones four on his back. He threw Ruby off at the second flight last Friday, having been off the track for nearly eighteen months. Perhaps he's still a little fresh but I prefer him to Ballyfitz who tries hurdles after jumping problems in two big chases in recent weeks and Fred Winter winner Silk Affair.

In the novices' hurdle Sonowyouno has to give eight pounds to the rest of the field on ground that is described as soft, heavy in places. I wouldn't be in a rush to take a short price and will consider opposing with Nicky Henderson's Master Of The Hall who has been described as having 'a high cruising speed'.

Kilbeggan Blade has won the last two renewals of the finale and has conditions to suit but Tom George's yard hasn't had a winner for a while. I would be prepared to forgive Never So Blue's last run at Cheltenham and will consider a small each-way interest if the price is right. Russian Trigger won the Midlands Grand National in March and should come on for his first run since the summer break three weeks ago. However he is one who needs to learn to respect the obstacles; connections hope he'll prove good enough for the Aintree National in the spring.

Points of view

Denman put in an exceptional performance yesterday, carrying 11 stones 12 pounds to victory on soft ground in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury; the horse is clearly back to his very best. Over the past two Saturdays we have seen Kauto Star win by a nose at Haydock and Denman demolish a high-class field at Newbury. Anticipation for their clash in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March has started to build already; this evening Blue Square bet 9/4 Kauto Star, 5/2 Denman, 8/1 Cooldine, 10/1 Imperial Commander.

Just for a second or so, as Denman and What A Friend raced to the final flight, it looked as though Sam Thomas' mount took the lead judging from the reverse camera angle used by the Channel 4 team in their replay. Thomas' mount seeemd to wander around slightly at the last but Denman powered away on the run-in to take the spoils. Thomas will have had mixed emotions talking on television afterwards, having ridden Denman to victory in the same race two years ago; he spoke eloquently and deserves plenty of credit.

As Alan Lee pointed out in Thursday's Times, Richard Dunwoody hasn't been afraid to put the cat amongst the pigeons in his latest book 'Method In My Madness'. Amongst other things, Mr. Dunwoody has suggested that Richard Johnson might have had a better chance of being champion jockey with a different agent and that jockeys' titles should be settled on prize money rather than winners. Writing in the same paper the next day, Tom Scudamore picked up on the latter point... 'To me, the mark of a champion jockey is consistency throughout a season, not just brilliance on the biggest days.'

A story that ran through the summer months (seems such a long time ago now) was the search to find a buyer for Ayr racecourse. This business snippet was spotted in last week's Sunday Times, suggesting the Reuben brothers, who took over Northern Racing two and a half years ago, are on the verge of doing a deal.

Finally, I was annoyed to have missed the Pantomime Horse Grand National which took place in Birmingham City Centre last Sunday. Spank the Donkey won the fillies event while Hoof Hearted took the colts race. Must make a note of the date for next year...