Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Thursday

My two most fancied tips for this year's Festival miss their intended engagements tomorrow. 

Thyme Hill doesn't run in the Stayers' Hurdle after picking up a minor injury while it appears connections of Midnight Shadow prefer to take their chance in the Virgin Bet Silver Bowl Handicap Chase at Kempton on Saturday rather than tomorrow's Paddy Power Plate (3.40). 

Has that decision been influenced by the decision of the The Shunter's connections to take up that option from their five Festival entries? If The Shunter wins the Paddy Power Plate, they pick up a cool £100,000 bonus. 

Last time out Emmet Mullins' charge won the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso off a mark of 135 - that was less than a fortnight ago. Tomorrow he'll race off a mark of 140 but Jordan Gainford's seven pounds claim negates the rise.  

The Stayers' Hurdle (3.05)

The Stayers' Hurdle is the feature on Thursday with Paisley Park hoping to regain the crown he lost to Lisnagar Oscar last year.

Looking very quickly through the runners' profiles, I think drying ground could possibly inconvenience the following horses: Sire Du Berlais, Vinndication, The Storyteller, Beacon Edge (query), Sam Spinner and Main Fact.

No horse older than nine years of age has won this since Crimson Embers in 1986.

Paisley Park was found to be suffering from a heart irregularity in last year's race but looked back to full health when collaring Thyme Hill in the shadow of the post at Ascot last time.

Over Christmas Flooring Porter made all at Leopardstown to beat The Storyteller six lengths with Sire Du Berlais third, Fury Road fourth and Bacardys pulled up. A few people have carped the form saying he stole the race from the front; on Racing Post ratings (RPR) he has one pound to find with Paisley Park.

The last horse to make all and win this was Cole Harden in 2015.

Conceding two pounds Fury Road was beaten a neck by Beacon Edge over a trip of two miles five furlongs at Navan last time. He won a point-to-point on good ground over three miles in 2018 but has yet to win over this trip under rules and, beforehand, there appear to have been some doubts expressed as to whether he would travel over for this race.

Lisnagar Oscar has had an interrupted preparation. 

After finishing behind Roksana and then Thyme Hill in the autumn he underwent wind surgery. On return he ran a fine race from the front at Haydock, beaten threequarters of a length trying to concede six pounds to Third Wind. 

That effort was rated within three pounds of his best and Rebecca Curtis indicated he'd missed five weeks' work after cutting into himself at Newbury. 

The gelding is certainly underestimated but the adjusted RPR he recorded when winning this last year was the lowest in the past ten years.

At the time of writing Paddy Power go 12/1 Flooring Porter and pay five places.

Flooring Porter is the each-way selection.

Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (1.55)

Irish horses have dominated proceedings over the first two days. 

The British entries for this race are respected with Imperial Alcazar, Champagne Platinum and Come On Teddy all near the head of the market. 

However I'm going to concentrate on the Irish entries as an Irish-trained horse has won this race in each of the past five years.

The Irish-trained entries in tomorrow's renewal are: The Bosses Oscar, Milliner, Mrs Milner, Dandy Mag and Anything Will Do.

Joint top weight The Bosses Oscar has been well touted; Jordan Ganford rides and claims seven pounds. The British handicapper has allocated the gelding a mark of 151, eight pounds higher than his Irish rating. 

He was beaten 12 lengths by Flooring Porter at Navan in December and a little over three weeks later just failed to concede four pounds to Dandy Mag at Leopardstown with Mrs Milner fourth and Anything Will Do fifth. 

This stable has won the past three renewals with Delta Work and Sire Du Berlais (twice); the Bosses Oscar is the one to beat on RP ratings.

In the RP Weekender [10-14.03.21] Willie Mullins says of Dandy Mag:

"Looking at the weather forecast...I am not sure it will be wet enough for him but the British handicapper has put him 6lb higher than his Irish mark which ensures he will get a run, but for a horse of his age it will be a tough task." 

Mrs Milner's neck second to On The Blind Side on the Old Course here in November reads well but she fell last time out at Leopardstown.

Anything Will Do has a patchy record but at the Dublin Festival last month she took up the running coming to the last before fading into fifth behind Maze Runner. The likes of Koshari, Sayo (fourth in the Coral Cup earlier today), Pure Genius and Dandy Mag were in arrears.

Milliner has crept in right at the bottom of the weights. After a log layoff he finished fifth at Navan at the end of January and then qualified for this when third behind Atlantic Shore at Punchestown just over two weeks ago. Rated 123 in Ireland, he has been allocated just 126 here and the market indicates he has every chance. 

The Bosses Oscar is my idea of the winner; Milliner could be anything. 

Mrs Milner's neck second to On The Blind Side over the Old Course here in November catches my eye and I note she has previously won on good ground at Galway. The fall the last day was unfortunate.

At the time of writing Mrs Milner is 12/1 with Sky Bet who pay seven places.

Mrs Milner is the each-way selection. 

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Day 3

Day 1: Invested 3.0 PTS, Returned 0.0 PTS, Net -3.0 PTS
Day 2: Invested 4.5 PTS, Returned 0.0 PTS, Net -4.5 PTS

Day 3 starts on Good to Soft ground

Marsh Novices' Chase

Envoi Allen is a cramped price to remain unbeaten and not tempting from a betting perspective.

Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

The systems idea of the most likely winner is Champagne Platinum but 7/1 is too short in this competitive affair so I’ll sit it out.

Ryanair Chase

It is likely that last year’s winner Min, after a perhaps two less than convincing prep races, will start this years renewal at the biggest odds he has ever been allowed to go off at. In one of his unconvincing prep races [John Durkin] he still managed to win finishing in front of Tornado Flyer, Melon and Allaho. Presumably Paul Townsend had a say in which he would ride and he’s opted for Min. The drying ground is more positive than negative. All in all 5/ just looks too big.

1PT win Min at 5/1

Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

Lisnagar put in, on my ratings, his best ever performance [164] LTO when 2nd to Third Wind in the Rendlesham post a wind op. It still leaves him with a few pounds to find with Paisley Park but 11/1 looks a more than fair price. Flooring Porter has a lovely progressive profile but this will be his toughest engagement to date.

1PT EW Lisnagar 11/1 5 places 1/5 odds Paddy Power

Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase

Today’s curve ball is 11yo Two Taffs [TT] who the system thinks could put a spanner in the works of The Shunter’s attempt to snatch the £100K.

TT is clearly not the easiest to train and was switched from the Skelton’s to NTD to give the horse a change of routine. He looked a chaser full of promise until missing two full seasons. Started back in Nov 2019 with a pipe opener over hurdles at Wetherby before finding the trip and the task too much in the Ladbrokes Trophy. Back to 2m 4f NTO at Warwick he finished 2nd to Clondaw Castle. His last race for Dan in the Johnny Henderson at last years festival was probably to sharp. His only run for NTD, a veterans chase, was O.K but not really any more. He’s now down to a mark of 141 and if he can hold it together in this he could make the frame at odds of 66/1.

0.5PTS EW Two Taffs 66/1 6 places 1/5 odds Paddy Power

Parnell Properties Mares' Novices' Hurdle

Perfect Myth looked progressive last autumn before finding the ground too deep at Taunton. Given a spin in a jumpers bumper will have helped with the prep, the drop back to 2m is not ideal but she may place at 22/1.

0.5PTS EW Perfect Myth 22/1 5 places, 1/5 odds Skybet.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

Milanford is intriguing but I’ll pass him over and take a chance on Sizing At Midnight. PU on unsuitable ground LTO and was running a big race in the Badger Beers when falling 3 out. Trip and ground could be ideal and a mark of 133 looks within his grasp.

0.5PTS EW Sizing At Midnight 25/1 6 places 1/5 odds Skybet.

Good luck.

TW

Anonymous said...

RTG,Horse,WC%
183,ENVOI ALLEN(FR),36.5
181,SHAN BLUE(IRE),18
179,CHANTRY HOUSE(IRE),14.7
180,CHATHAM STREET LAD(IRE),7.5
168,ASTERION FORLONGE(FR),7.2
173,DARVER STAR(IRE),5.9
172,BLACKBOW(IRE),5.6
179,FUSIL RAFFLES(FR),4.8
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
169,CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM(IRE),9.6
167,IMPERIAL ALCAZAR(IRE),6.9
163,THE BOSSES OSCAR(IRE),6.7
167,COME ON TEDDY(IRE),6
166,STORM ARISING(IRE),5.9
166,BRINKLEY(FR),5.7
167,ASK DILLON(IRE),5.6
159,SPIRITOFTHEGAMES(IRE),5.2
166,EVERGLOW(GB),5.1
168,KANSAS CITY CHIEF(IRE),4.8
163,UNOWHATIMEANHARRY(GB),4.8
166,NO COMMENT(GB),4.5
161,KEEPER HILL(IRE),3.9
158,ANYTHING WILL DO(IRE),3.7
168,MILLINER(IRE),3.6
163,MRS MILNER(IRE),3.6
158,DANDY MAG(FR),3.4
163,REDFORD ROAD(GB),3
161,POTTERS HEDGER(GB),2.6
162,STORM GODDESS(IRE),2.6
165,PERFECT MAN(IRE),2.1
158,COPPERHEAD(GB),0.7
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
188,MIN(FR),41
181,MELON(GB),12.8
184,MISTER FISHER(IRE),10
181,IMPERIAL AURA(IRE),9.4
173,ALLAHO(FR),6.1
177,FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES(FR),5.3
175,CHRIS'S DREAM(IRE),4.7
176,TORNADO FLYER(IRE),4.7
176,KALASHNIKOV(IRE),2.3
178,SAMCRO(IRE),2
178,FANION D'ESTRUVAL(FR),1.7
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
178,PAISLEY PARK(IRE),27.9
175,LISNAGAR OSCAR(IRE),14.9
176,VINNDICATION(IRE),9
171,THE STORYTELLER(IRE),8.5
171,IF THE CAP FITS(IRE),6.5
170,SIRE DU BERLAIS(FR),5.3
173,BEACON EDGE(IRE),4.2
171,FLOORING PORTER(IRE),4.2
167,FURY ROAD(IRE),4.2
168,SAM SPINNER(GB),4
173,YOUNEVERCALL(IRE),3.8
167,BACARDYS(FR),2.4
164,MAIN FACT(USA),2.3
166,LIL ROCKERFELLER(USA),2
162,RESERVE TANK(IRE),0.8
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
178,TOP NOTCH(FR),11.5
172,MISTER WHITAKER(IRE),7.5
175,TWO TAFFS(IRE),7.5
172,CARIBEAN BOY(FR),6.5
167,THE SHUNTER(IRE),6
167,THE UNIT(IRE),5.8
173,HAPPY DIVA(IRE),5.6
167,FARCLAS(FR),5.5
167,OLDGRANGEWOOD(GB),5.1
170,SULLY D'OC AA(FR),4.6
166,PADDY'S POEM(GB),4.2
168,SMARTY WILD(GB),3.9
160,A WAVE OF THE SEA(IRE),3.8
164,COOLE CODY(IRE),3.5
170,KILTEALY BRIGGS(IRE),3.1
167,CHAMPAGNE COURT(IRE),3.1
171,MAYPOLE CLASS(IRE),2.9
167,HUNTSMAN SON(IRE),2.8
168,DEAD RIGHT(GB),2.4
163,ASSEMBLE(GB),1.8
166,FILS D'OUDAIRIES(FR),1.8
164,EAMON AN CNOIC(IRE),1.2
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
169,ROYAL KAHALA(IRE),19.9
160,THE GLANCING QUEEN(IRE),12.8
163,GAULOISE(FR),11.5
163,TELMESOMETHINGGIRL(IRE),11.2
161,HOOK UP(FR),9.3
159,PERFECT MYTH(GB),6.7
162,ROSEYS HOLLOW(IRE),5.8
154,ALLAVINA(IRE),4.4
148,SKYACE(IRE),4.2
158,MIGHTY BLUE(FR),3.7
147,MARTELLO SKY(GB),3.7
146,GLENS OF ANTRIM(IRE),3.3
151,PONT AVAL(FR),1.8
145,MAGIC DAZE(IRE),1.2
152,WILL VICTORY(FR),0.7
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
170,MILANFORD(IRE),17
160,SHANTOU FLYER(IRE),9.6
160,HOLD THE NOTE(IRE),7
165,SIZING AT MIDNIGHT(IRE),6.5
157,DIDERO VALLIS(FR),6.3
157,DEISE ABA(IRE),6.2
156,DOUBLE SHUFFLE(IRE),4.6
160,MORNING VICAR(IRE),4.4
159,MUSICAL SLAVE(IRE),4.1
157,MOUNT IDA(IRE),4.1
155,ANOTHER VENTURE(IRE),3.5
155,BEAU BAY(FR),3.4
159,COBOLOBO(FR),3.4
154,STORM CONTROL(IRE),2.9
153,CRIEVEHILL(IRE),2.4
149,PLAN OF ATTACK(IRE),2.4
157,ALMAZHAR GARDE(FR),2.4
152,KILFILUM CROSS(IRE),2.4
154,GO ANOTHER ONE(IRE),2.1
152,BOB MAHLER(IRE),1.9
147,YOUNG DEV(IRE),1.6
153,CLOUDY GLEN(IRE),1
160,TOWNSHEND(GER),1

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your analysis and ratings, TW.

Good luck!

Anonymous said...

Mrs Milner is the each-way selection.

Fantastic.....very well done!

TW

Anonymous said...

Flooring Porter is the each-way selection.

A stella day for the blog....the long hours pay off!

TW

GeeDee said...

Flooring Porter (12/1) made all to win the Stayers' Hurdle in some style, a jink to the right after the last the only moment of worry. Sire Du Berlais (5/1) was three and a quarter lengths adrift in second while previous winner Paisley Park (9/4f) was third, unable to fully recover from a mid-race flat spot.

Despite meeting trouble in running before two out, Mrs Milner (12/1) led as they came to the last and won the Pertemps Final by five lengths from well-backed The Bosses Oscar (100/30f) with Come on Teddy (10/1) third and the unexposed Milliner (7/1) fourth. Irish-trained horses filled three of the first four places.