For longer than I care to remember I've made the pilgrimage to Prestbury Park for Champion Chase day.
This year it's going to be different, Cheltenham is going to be different, although I have to say I won't miss those timetabled visits to the gents' toilets which, more often than not, resemble a scene from one of Dante's nine circles of hell; or, for that matter, sobbing silently into a pint of overpriced Guinness after the bumper, consoling friends in that area of the Mandarin Bar reserved specifically for losers - while the more successful punters hold a carefree, impromptu party just across the way.
Tuesday's final declarations were published earlier today; field sizes are perceptibly smaller. Eight go to post in the Supreme, six in the Arkle, 10 in the Champion Hurdle and 16 in the Ultima.
The Festival is a four day marathon and, traditionally, I've exercised a deal of personal restraint on the first day - and there's no doubt my wallet has seen the benefit.
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20)
Ordinarily I wouldn't contemplate a wager in the opener, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20), but this year the sponsors offer money back as cash (maximum £10) if your horse loses.
Appreciate It is the short-priced favourite but in the past decade the favourite has obliged only twice. On Racing Post ratings Tolworth winner Metier, rated 88 on the Flat in Ireland, is the one to oppose with but his form this term has been on soft or heavy ground.
I was taken with the manner in which Soaring Glory won the Betfair Hurdle 'comfortably' at Newbury on good to soft ground just over three weeks ago. He's likely to face similar conditions on Tuesday and connections have decided to fit first-time cheekpieces.
Soaring Glory is my play against the favourite, 6/1 with Sky Bet at the time of writing.
Selection: Soaring Glory win (6/1 Sky Bet).
The Champion Hurdle (3.05)
The Champion Hurdle, the highlight of the first day, has been billed as a clash between two mares from either side of the Irish Sea.
Current favourite Honeysuckle is unbeaten in 10 starts. She was particularly impressive in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month, beating Abacadabras 10 lengths with Sharjah a disappointing nine lengths further adrift in third on ground described as soft / heavy.
Last year Epatante won this race in convincing fashion, beating Sharjah three lengths (Silver Streak a further nine lengths adrift in sixth), recording a Racing Post rating (RPR) of 168 in the process - seven of the previous 10 winners recorded a higher rating.
Nicky Henderson's mare displayed an impressive turn of foot to win the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in November but didn't hurdle with her usual fluency last time when unable to keep tabs on front-running Silver Streak in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.
Goshen came to grief at the final flight in last year's Triumph Hurdle with the race at his mercy.
This term, after a couple of warm-up runs on the Flat, Gary Moore's charge finished last of the ten runners in the International Hurdle; he was subsequently found to be suffering from an irregular heartbeat.
He bounced back to form in spectacular fashion in the Kingwell Hurdle just over three weeks ago, beating Song For Someone 22 lengths. At the time of writing he is vying with Epatante for the second favourite's spot.
Silver Streak has shown improved form along with improved hurdling this season. Well beaten in third by Espoir Allen in the 2019 running, the eight year old grey finished sixth last year and could be expected to improve on that this time. In the past 10 years only two older than seven have come home in front - Hurricane Fly (2013) and Annie Power (2016).
I'm interested in Sharjah. I'm ready to forgive his latest effort behind Honeysuckle at the Dublin Festival where there was a hint regular pilot Mr P.W. Mullins overplayed the waiting tactics.
Writing in the RP Weekender [10-14.03.21], Mr W.P. Mullins says:
"For the past two seasons he has been successful in the Grade 1 Matheson Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival only to follow up with lacklustre runs in the Irish Champion Hurdle. It could be that it just comes too soon after Christmas. However, last year he bounced back at Cheltenham and I hope he can do the same again as he has been in grand order at home. Better ground will improve his chances and I think the right tactics may make the difference this year between first and second."
At the tine of writing Sharjah is generally a 12/1 chance with bet365, Sky Bet and Paddy Power all paying four places; William Hill offer 10/1 and pay five places.
Selection: Sharjah each-way (12/1 generally, four places).
An old friend of mine, Aye Right, goes in the Ultima (2.30) and I like Richard Johnson on one that likes to race prominently but I missed the price last week and the 6/1 now on offer is too short.
In a previous post I discussed some of the Irish contenders in the Boodles (4.15); with a maximum field of 22 it looks difficult. Bet Victor offer 10/1 about Busselton and pay five places too but I'm going to let this particular opportunity pass by - there will be others later in the week.
11 comments:
Day 1
The smaller field sizes might make it a good day for favourite backers.
Over night rain has turned the ground soft, though the going description come post time may read soft, good/soft in places and that’s what I’ve used when running the system.
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Appreciate looks a worthy favourite, 11/10 is tight and he’d need to drift out 2/1+ before he would be of interest.
Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase
It’s hard to see beyond Shishkin, at odds of around 1.5 I’m happy to simply watch the race.
Ultima Handicap Chase
Sure to be competitive, the system agrees with the market and sees Happygolucky as the most likely winner, current odds of 7/2 are too skinny though and I’d need him to take a long walk out to around 5/1 [I’ll keep my eye on the exchanges] before being tempted.
Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
Sharjah looks a great EW play but will likely to find at least one of the mares too good. Epatante’s drift in the market may not be seen as a positive but she’s arrived at odds where it is worth taking an interest.
1PT Win Epatante 9/2
Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle
Looks to be Concertista’s race to lose but, again, I’d be looking for bigger odds than 6/5 before being a player.
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
As a regular reader of your blog I’ll probably pay the price for not heeding your Irish handicap research but Homme Public [HP] tops the system output [ratings and win chance %] and I’m going to play EW. HP has never finished out of the first two, like most of the field has scope to improve further, the yard’s runner rolling system monthly metric is a few points higher than its annual figure so all looks well on that front. The icing on the cake is that he was only beaten a neck by Houx Gris [HG] when the pair met in France and HG is vying for favouritism.
1PT EW 14/1 5 places ¼ odds [B365]
Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase
A race I’ll sit out but the market looks about right to the system.
Very best of luck this week!
TW
Thanks for providing your selections, TW.
Homme Public is on the radar following the Oliver Greenall Straight from the Stable feature in the RP Weekender [17-21.02.21].
I see Tinnahalla is now a non-runner. HP was beaten into second by that one on his first run over here; I'm quoting:
"...[Homme Public] made an encouraging start for us first time out at Catterick earlier this month on heavy ground. He ran a great race where he was only beaten after the last and Sean [Quinlan] looked after him once it was obvious he would not win. He had a big blow afterwards, which I would have expected, and will come on a ton for that run.
"The horse who beat him, Tinnahalla, was rated 110 but has been reassessed and given a mark of 126. Sean told me afterwards that if we have a rematch with Tinnahalla he has no doubt Homme Public would finish on top, and knowing how how much he has come on I would concur with that."
Suggests to me off a mark of 125 tomorrow Homme Public could be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper...
Good luck!
Thanks for sharing the Weekender notes....all positive!
Whilst system is currently misfiring I am happy to add the system output to a new comment...but I've not done so because I certainly do not want to be seen as hogging the comments section!
TW
All good, TW!
RTG,Horse,WC%
173,APPRECIATE IT(IRE),37.7
174,METIER(IRE),15.2
167,BALLYADAM(IRE),14.8
168,BLUE LORD(FR),14.6
167,SOARING GLORY(IRE),9.2
163,IRASCIBLE(FR),6
161,FOR PLEASURE(IRE),1.3
165,GRUMPY CHARLEY(GB),1.3
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
199,SHISHKIN(IRE),60.1
189,ALLMANKIND(GB),17.8
176,FRANCO DE PORT(FR),9.7
179,ELDORADO ALLEN(FR),5.8
172,CAPTAIN GUINNESS(IRE),4.7
154,NUMITOR(GB),1.9
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
178,HAPPYGOLUCKY(IRE),25.7
172,AYE RIGHT(IRE),11.8
178,OK CORRAL(IRE),10.9
177,ONE FOR THE TEAM(GB),10.2
171,CEPAGE(FR),7.8
172,PYM(IRE),5.5
173,ALNADAM(FR),4.6
175,NIETZSCHE(GB),3.8
164,MILAN NATIVE(IRE),3.3
170,VINTAGE CLOUDS(IRE),3.2
171,DELIRE D'ESTRUVAL(FR),2.7
171,DISCORDANTLY(IRE),2.7
169,THE WOLF(FR),2.7
172,ADMIRAL'S SECRET(GB),2.2
169,FINGERONTHESWITCH(IRE),1.7
175,SOUPY SOUPS(IRE),1.2
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
189,EPATANTE(FR),32.4
189,HONEYSUCKLE(GB),22.1
184,SHARJAH(FR),16
183,ASPIRE TOWER(IRE),7.1
178,ABACADABRAS(FR),6.8
181,SILVER STREAK(IRE),6.1
162,JAMES DU BERLAIS(FR),5
184,GOSHEN(FR),2.4
163,NOT SO SLEEPY(GB),1.3
173,SALDIER(FR),1
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
179,CONCERTISTA(FR),41.7
174,ROKSANA(IRE),18.8
168,DAME DE COMPAGNIE(FR),9.3
164,BLACK TEARS(GB),5.7
167,FLORESSA(FR),5
164,INDEFATIGABLE(IRE),5
168,MINELLA MELODY(IRE),4.3
161,GREAT WHITE SHARK(FR),3.7
158,DOLCITA(FR),3.3
157,WHITEHOTCHILLIFILI(IRE),2.3
159,MY SISTER SARAH(IRE),0.8
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
152,HOMME PUBLIC(FR),9.6
150,ZOFFANIEN(IRE),7.3
147,BUSSELTON(FR),6.5
147,NASSALAM(FR),6.4
146,SAINT SAM(FR),6.1
149,HER INDOORS(IRE),5.9
148,SAGE ADVICE(IRE),5.7
145,RIVIERE D'ETEL(FR),5.6
145,CABOT CLIFFS(IRE),5.6
151,HOUX GRIS(FR),5.5
146,DRUID'S ALTAR(IRE),5.2
144,LONGCLAW(USA),4.6
141,BALKO SAINT(FR),3.9
140,COLTOR(IRE),3.7
145,ELHAM VALLEY(FR),3.7
147,JEFF KIDDER(IRE),3.6
149,YOUMDOR(FR),3.6
134,HELL RED(FR),1.8
136,GLORIOUS ZOFF(IRE),1.8
145,BURGUNDY MAN(FR),1.8
137,SOLDIER ON PARADE(GB),1.5
139,CURIOUS BRIDE(IRE),0.7
,,
RTG,Horse,WC%
179,NEXT DESTINATION(IRE),42.1
173,GALVIN(IRE),16.1
171,ESCARIA TEN(FR),8.3
164,SOLDIER OF LOVE(GB),5.6
164,SNOW LEOPARDESS(GB),5.6
171,REMASTERED(GB),5.1
164,OFALLTHEGINJOINTS(IRE),4.4
169,LORD ROYAL(FR),3.4
162,THE MIGHTY DON(IRE),2.9
161,NESTOR PARK(FR),2.4
147,EDEN DU HOUX(FR),1.6
147,MACGILONEY(IRE),1.6
144,LITHIC(IRE),0.9
TW
An early thought/bet for Wednesday.
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
Numbers have held up and a field of 26 is likely to go to post with system selection Thomas Darby [TD] heading the weights with 11-12. Whisper carried 11-11 in 2014 and William Henry 11-10 in 2019 to success and overall the quality of horse winning this race looks to have improved.
TD is quite lightly raced for an 8yo and this is only his 2nd try in a handicap. He never took to the bigger fences but his hurdle form is very good. Runner up in the 2019 Supreme, won his only handicap start [off 151, 4lbs higher today] giving 2lbs when beating the more than useful Song For Someone at Ascot over this sort of trip & ground. Since that handicap win TD has performed with credit in 3 graded stake races. TD has raced twice in big fields [11+ runners] winning one and 2nd in the other. His Cheltenham record from two runs is 12. He has never finished out of the first 3 [albeit some of these were small field affairs] and never been further than 5L behind the winner in hurdle races. He comes here a fresh horse [won after lay offs of 54 and 169 days]. He wears cheek pieces for the 1st time.
1PT EW 14/1 6 places 1/5 odds [Ladbrokes].
TW
Noted TW.
Just doing some initial spadework now...
Some mare!
But a great effort once again by your fella....well done!
TW
The 80/1 Winner of the Boodles did get a mention in your piece on the Irish Handicappers...you perhaps should have dug a bit deeper!
TW
TW,
Honeysuckle wins by six and a half lengths - incredible mare!
Shocked by the complete annihilation of the British novices in the opener - both Metier and Soaring Glory out of contention three from home.
Re: The Boodles
'You can't kid a kidder!' as the saying goes. Even now I wouldn't bet the horse - and I know the result!
The race has thrown up some big-priced winners in the past:
2012 Une Artiste 40/1
2013 Flaxen Flare 25/1
2014 Hawk High 33/1
2015 Qualando 25/1
2017 Flying Tiger 33/1
2018 Veneer Of Charm 33/1
Now we must add to the list:
2021 Jeff Kidder 80/1
Beforehand plenty thought Appreciate It looked vulnerable in the Supreme.
In the event the 8/11 favourite proved anything but, coming home 24 lengths clear of Ballyadam 6/1).
The vulnerabilities lay with the British novices, with front runner For Pleasure (40/1) faring best in third while both Metier (11/2) and Soaring Glory (10/1) were badly outpaced and out of contention three from home. Selection Soaring Glory finished fourth, beaten over 27 lengths.
Unbeaten mare Honeysuckle was sent off the 11/10 favourite for the Champion Hurdle and her backers never had a moment's worry. Sent about her business between the final two flights, she scooted up the hill to win by six and a half lengths. Selection Sharjah (11/1) gave chase in vain but claimed second spot three lengths ahead of last year's winner Epatante (4/1).
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