Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Friday

A starter before the main course...

The County Hurdle (1.55)

I don't usually have a bet in the notoriously difficult County Hurdle but with the ground drying out I think Milkwood is big enough at 25/1 with Sky Bet who are paying eight places. 

Beaten five and a half lengths by Sceau Royal into fourth in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last October (Ballyandy second, Buzz third), he was badly hampered in a listed intermediate hurdle at Newbury four weeks later and in the circumstances did well to finish third, two lengths behind Floressa.

He didn't really make much of an impression in the Betfair Hurdle last month and the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that effort. 

This would appear to be his first run at an undulating track; he was withdrawn from the Greatwood Hurdle on the morning of the race on account of the ground deteriorating overnight from good to soft, soft in places to soft, heavy in places.. 

Current stable form looks good with five winners from 31 runs in the past fortnight; quoting trainer Neil Mulholland:

"The combinagtion of the softer ground and having to come from a long way back might not have helped him last time at Newbury. He might have used his run getting into the race, but that was my fault and we might do things differently this time. You take that run out and he'd be much shorter for this. The drier the ground the better for him."

Milkwood is the each-way selection, at the time of writing 25/1 with Sky Bet who pay eight places.

Footnote: Dan Skelton tends to target this race - he saddles Third Time Lucki who finished fourth in last year's bumper. I think the original plan was to run Proschema but the gelding failed to make the cut when only able to finish fifth at Newbury a fortnight ago.

And now the main course...

The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.05)

Al  Boum Photo bids to become the first horse since Best Mate (2002 - 2004) to win three consecutive renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Although it's possible to make the case for a few of his opponents, on balance Willie Mullins' inmate is the percentage call. 

We've seen him just the once this season (Al Boum, that is, not Willie) winning the Savills New Year's Day Chase at Tramore.

At the time of writing A Plus Tard is priced up favourite in a couple of lists. Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore have had a spectacular week so far and you can only start to imagine the media coverage if Rachael were to become the first woman to ride a Gold Cup winner. 

Before Christmas A Plus Tard's best form had been over shorter trips but he stayed on well on his first try over three miles in Leopardstown's Savills Chase to beat Kemboy half a length. 

Rachael Blackmore, aboard stablemate Minella Indo in that race, came to grief at the eighth; Kemboy has since beaten Minella Indo in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Festival.

Still, A Plus Tard has to stay another two and a half furlongs (and come up the hill) tomorrow and I just wonder whether he will last home. On official ratings he has six pounds to find with Al Boum Photo.

Champ is talented and possesses a big engine but remains something of an enigma. He has never been a particularly fluent jumper, of either hurdles or fences; in the RSA last year he was eight and a half lengths adrift coming to the last yet came up the hill with a late rattle to win going away from Minella Indo.

Connections have been working on those jumping issues and he looked better on his first outing after wind surgery over a trip of two miles in the Game Spirit at Newbury last month. It's certainly an unorthodox preparation for a Gold Cup. For me the key question is still whether his jumping will be good enough to keep him in contention.

Stablemate Santini was beaten a fast-diminishing neck last year but has just not looked quick enough this term. Connections will hope the fitting of a visor can bring about a much-needed return to form.

Frodon and Bryony Frost will want to get to the front early on and establish a rhythm. After winning the 2019 Cotswold Chase connections opted for the Ryanair rather than the Gold Cup which they duly won (Aso second). He still has to prove he stays this extended trip.

Royal Pagaille could be anything but you feel the drying ground is against him, a comment that also applies to previous winner Native River.

Lostintranslation was my selection for the race last year and he finished a creditable one and a half lengths third behind Al Boum Photo and Santini but, like Santini, he has been a shadow of his former self this term. 

Neither Aso or Black Op has won over a trip of three miles. 

There appears to be plenty of money for A Plus Tard this evening but Al Boum Photo has to be the selection.

Al Boum Photo is the win selection.

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And finally...

For those with moolah left over - and an appetite for the practically impossible - the concluding Martin Pipe is a handicap Irish-trained runners have fared well in in recent years. Due to pressures of time I haven't done the homework on the nine Irish-trained declarations so I'm not going to offer an opinion.

Last year the Gordon Elliott trained Column Of Fire held every chance when coming to grief at the last.

The Dan Skelton trained Langer Dan won the Imperial Cup at Sandown on Saturday; connections will pick up a £50,000 bonus if the gelding comes home in front tomorrow.

David Pipe is particularly keen to win this race named after his father; he saddles three tomorrow: Leoncavallo, Martinhall and First Lord De Cuet.

On his last run Leoncavallo finished nine and a quarter lengths behind Great White Shark in the Cesarewitch at Newmarket. Both Leoncavallo and Martinhall were due to run at Sandown on Saturday but were unable to do so after an accident on the M5 caused major traffic problems close to the yard.