Friday, March 26, 2021

Cheltenham Festival 2021: one week on

A week is a long time in horse racing.

There has been plenty of soul-searching this side of the Irish Sea after Irish-trained horses won 23 of the 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival.

Irish domination was the theme last week and, as Kevin Blake rightly highlights, those 23 winners came from 10 individual trainers. 

Willie Mullins has attributed that domination to the long-term vision of Horse Racing Ireland's chief executive Brian Kavanagh whose latest five year stint in the role comes to an end this September;  unsurprisingly, both Mullins and Jim Bolger are keen to ensure the main man stays in post.

Over here Alan King speaks in the Weekender of 'taking Ferraris on with Fords' while Maddy Playle states:

"British jump racing lacks depth, because there are too many Graded events which give connections too many opportunities to dodge other talented horses."

Once again Irish runners performed extremely well in the Festival handicaps. Here are updated figures for Irish trained horses that recorded a first three finish in Festival handicaps: 

Cheltenham 2019 (10 handicap races): Ireland 5 wins; Great Britain 5 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 13 from 68 entries (19.12%)

Cheltenham 2020 (10 handicap races): Ireland 5 wins; Great Britain 5 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 17 from 73 entries (23.29%)

Cheltenham 2021 (9 handicap races): Ireland 7 wins; Great Britain 2 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 13 from 65 entries      (20%)

Two years ago Simon Holt highlighted a similar emerging trend in the handicap races at Aintree [RP Weekender 10-14.04.19]:

Aintree 2019 (7 handicap races): Ireland 5 wins; Great Britain 2 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 9 from 32 entries   (28.12%)

[Irish horses fill four of the first five places in the Grand National from 18 entries.]

Unfortunately last year's Aintree meeting was called off due to the coronavirus pandemic but here are figures for 2018 and 2017:

Aintree 2018 (7 handicap races): Ireland 1 win; Great Britain 6 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 5 from 31 entries   (16.13%)

[Irish horses fill six of the first eight places in the Grand National from 16 entries. In the concluding Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle, Scheu Time, trained by J A Nash and ridden by Ms K Walsh, fell at the last when in the lead.]

Aintree 2017 (7 handicap races): Ireland 0 win; Great Britain 7 wins

Irish trained horses achieving a top three finish: 4 from 25 entries        (16%)

With Covid and Brexit in the background it remains to be seen just how many Irish horses will travel over for Aintree this year - Willie Mullins has already indicated he only intends to send a small team. Whatever happens, I think it will certainly be worth taking a second look at any Irish runner declared in the seven Aintree handicaps:

Thursday 8th April: Red Rum Handicap Chase

Friday 9th April: Alder Hey / Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle; Topham Handicap Chase 

Saturday 10th April: Gaskells Handicap Hurdle; Betway Handicap Chase; Randox Grand National Handicap Chase; Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle

After all that I need a bet.

I'd like to think I K Brunel can put up an improved showing in tomorrow's William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2.05  Kelso) following wind surgery last month. Olly Murphy's charge was well backed the last day at Ascot but clearly something was amiss; he makes the long trip north with the better ground likely to suit. At the moment the yard is operating at a win strike rate of 22%; Adrian Heskin travels up for this one ride.

16/1 earlier this afternoon, I K Brunel is now quoted a 10/1 chance with the sponsors who are paying four places. 

I K Brunel is the each-way suggestion.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

A disappointing effort from selection I K Brunel (10/1) at Kelso.

Under a hold-up ride he made some limited headway but his effort petered out at the business end of the race with a slow jump three from home; despite his rider's best efforts, he came home a well-beaten seventh, beaten just under 60 lengths.

The finish was fought out between Agrapart (18/1) and Doyen Breed (100/30f) with the former getting up in the final strides to deny the favourite - a noteworthy effort conceding a stone to the second.

The mare Miah Grace (12/1) cried enough coming to the last but stayed on for third, just over 16 lengths behind the principals, while Mr Harp (4/1) was fourth, some 25 lengths further adrift.