Several of the usual suspects line up in a field of twenty declared for tomorrow's final day feature at Sandown - the bet365 Gold Cup is due off at 3.35.
Tidal Bay lumped 11-12 to victory in 2012 and is the only winner to carry more than 11-0 in the past ten years. Favourites don't have the best of records with Mr Frisk the last outright market leader to oblige in 1990.
Step Back bids to become the first back-to-back winner since Topsham Bay (1992/93) - last year Rock The Kasbah was 13 lengths adrift in second place with Present Man third, The Young Master eighth and Rathlin Rose pulled up.
Racing from the front, Step Back was highly impressive that day but he starts from a mark ten pounds higher tomorrow. Midweek there was a glut of money for Mark Bradstock's charge which prompted the handler to remark his charge is fragile and can be a tricky customer - connections fit cheekpieces for the first time.
Step Back, along with Rock the Kasbah and Joe Farrell, contested the Grand National three weeks ago.
Step Back didn't help the cause by jumping markedly right in the National before pulling up after the Canal Turn on the second circuit. Rock The Kasbah didn't appear to relish the Aintree challenge at all and was brought down at the 18th flight. Joe Farrell weakened from four out and was pulled up before the penultimate flight.
Of the three Joe Farrell is of most interest. The ground, currently good, good to firm in places, should suit but regular readers will know I feel his programme this term has looked a little rushed - following last year's Scottish National win, his seasonal debut took place at the beginning of March and this will be his fourth run. I'm not certain what riding priorities apply but I note regular pilot Adam Wedge is aboard the Evan Williams trained Prime Venture who would appreciate any rain that falls.
Talkischeap is short enough in the market, presumably on the back of two runs behind La Bague Au Roi and a second place behind On The Blind Side; that one did the form no favours in the RSA Chase.
Beware The Bear was set to carry top weight in the Scottish National a fortnight ago but was withdrawn on the morning of the race on account of fast ground. Connections will want the rain to arrive and he looks to face a stiff task off 160, conceding a minimum of five pounds to all his rivals. That said, Nicky Henderson's charge has looked a different horse since blinkers have been applied - his victory in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival reads well (Flying Angel fifth, Give Me A Copper fell).
You could - if you wanted - make a case for Flying Angel on the back of that run but current stable form figures read just one win from 24 runs in the past fortnight.
To my mind there isn't an awful lot of value near the head of the market so in search of an each-way chance in reasonable form I've come up with Philip Hobbs' second string Rolling Dylan.
In December this one was beaten a head and a neck into third by Cogry and Singlefarmpayment in a Cheltenham handicap run on good ground. Post race I seem to recall Luke Harvey telling viewers that if Cogry had wanted a scrap with a couple of weak finishers, these two were among the best in the business.
A little unfair? Or maybe not? Since then the gelding couldn't get anywhere near Beware The Bear at Cheltenham on New Year's Day (costly mistake at fifth) but looked in with a shout at Sandown the next time before failing to quicken in soft ground.
His second the last day at Taunton reads well - he was raised three pounds for that effort - but perhaps is one he should have won (comment in running: 'led after two out, idling last'). He was pipped a head that day by Samuel Jackson ridden by James Best. James Best takes the ride tomorrow so I'm hoping he'll have a good idea of what's required should he, perchance, find himself in with a chance...
Philip Hobbs' inmate should handle underfoot conditions even if rain arrives and clearly handles a right-handed track.
Rolling Dylan is the each-way suggestion, at the time of writing 22/1 with Paddy Power who pay one fifth the odds six places.
Friday, April 26, 2019
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5 comments:
With only 0.5mm of rain overnight the ground looks unlikely to be riding any easier than “Good”. Adrien Du Pont [not eaten up] and Captain Chaos [going] are non-runners at the time of commenting.
I’m with you with Rolling Dylan. I think, off a career high mark of 143, he might just be vulnerable for win purposes but I’m hopeful he can grab one of those generous 6 places on offer!
System output sorted by % win chance:
RTG Horse % WC
173 ROLLING DYLAN(IRE) 15.36
174 JUST A STING(IRE) 10.43
172 BALLYDINE(IRE) 10.15
176 TALKISCHEAP(IRE) 9.94
172 THE YOUNG MASTER(GB) 8.98
176 WEST APPROACH(GB) 7.29
171 GIVE ME A COPPER(IRE) 6.22
168 ROCK THE KASBAH(IRE) 6.18
171 LE REVE(IRE) 5.35
167 JOE FARRELL(IRE) 3.39
170 VYTA DU ROC(FR) 3.35
170 YALA ENKI(FR) 3.1
173 PRIME VENTURE(IRE) 3.03
167 RATHLIN ROSE(IRE) 2.59
168 PRESENT MAN(IRE) 1.92
168 BEWARE THE BEAR(IRE) 1.63
170 FLYING ANGEL(IRE) 0.95
170 STEP BACK(IRE) 0.15
Good luck!
TW
Fingers crossed, TW!
I think Rolling Dylan snuck into the places late on.
Fifth, Sandracer, beaten over 30 lengths.
Still, better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick... ;)
The bet365 Gold Cup turned into something of a one horse race with Talkischeap (7/1) brushing aside The Young Master (8/1) at the last to win in commanding fashion by 10 lengths with Step Back (10/1) a further nine lengths back in third.
Selection Rolling Dylan (16/1) looked unlikely to make a place from four out but he stayed on for fifth place, some 30 lengths behind the winner.
Give Me A Copper (7/1) was fourth while I was surprsied to see West Approach sent off 5/1 favourtie - he finished sixth.
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