Friday, April 12, 2019

Scottish Grand National 2019

To quote Dorothy in The Wizard Of Oz:

'Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!'

Lion Hearted won the Bet totetrifecta At totesport.com Handicap (Chelmsford 4.10) yesterday.

Tiger Roll won last week's Grand National while Rock On Tiger goes in tomorrow's 5.05 at Bangor and Tigerskin in the 3.50 at Newbury.

Follow The Bear finished third in today's finale at Ayr while stablemate Beware The Bear shoulders top weight in tomorrow's Scottish Grand National due off at 3.35 for which 28 have been declared.

The fitting of blinkers has certainly had an impact on Beware The Bear.

Nicky Henderson's charge followed up his win at Cheltenham on New Year's Day with victory in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Festival last month - that day Vintage Clouds came home second, Big River fourth and Magic Of Light, second at Aintree last week, eighth.

As a result Beware The Bear has gone up a total of 14 pounds to a mark of 160. He gives away a minimum of eight pounds to all rivals here; the bottom nine race from out of the handicap.

It all looks a tall order and the stable strike-rate - 3 from 37 in the past fortnight - is a cause for some concern. The price appears on the drift this evening although some layers have him 9/1 joint favourite.

The last top-weight to collect the spoils was Grey Abbey in 2004.

Vintage Clouds was my fancy for last week's National but the grey came down at the first. Third in this last year, Sue Smith's charge has every chance but there are several in the field who make more appeal at bigger odds.

Similar comments apply to Big River. I like Lucinda Russell's charge but I'm not totally convinced by his jumping. Earlier in the week Peter Scudamore commented that the gelding would need to sharpen up his act in that department and hinted ideally the horse would prefer more cut underfoot.

Dingo Dollar was nine lengths behind Chidswell in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster six weeks ago (Durham National winner Brian Boranha third, Beau Du Brizais fourth). Prior to that Dingo Dollar had finished a length behind Crosshue Boy in the novices' handicap chase at this meeting last year with Acdc a creditable third.

While Alan King talks up Dingo Dollar's chance in the Weekender - this has been the target all season - there has been plenty of money for Crosshue Boy who was 33/1 in places at the beginning of the week.

Back in January Impulsive Star ran out an impressive-looking winner of the Classic Chase at Warwick; that day I was particularly taken with the manner in which he quickened away from nearest rival Calett Mad on the short run-in after the last. Crosspark finished third, stablemate Carole's Destrier fourth, Cogry tenth and Sizing Codelco eleventh.

Since then Impulsive Star was disappointing at Cheltenham but Crosspark went to Newcastle and won the Eider by a neck from Mysteree with London National winner Morney Wing six lengths adrift in third. Like Beware The Bear, first-time blinkers brought out a marked improvement in Mysteree last time - he only just failed to claim his second Eider. Since Crosspark has learned to settle better, he has shown much improved form.

Taking into account Sam Waley-Cohen's allowance, Impulsive Star would appear to have the edge over Crosspark on Classic Chase form but this evening Neil Mulholland appears more bullish about Carole's Destrier - this race has been the target. The trainer's third runner, Doing Fine, underwent wind surgery in January and looks to have had a similar preparation to last year when he came home fourth.

Cloth Cap, in the same ownership as Vintage Clouds, only has three chase runs to his name but his chance is respected - recent seven-year-olds to win include Godsmejudge (2013) and Vicente (2016).

Chidswell looked good in the Grimthorpe but I'm unnerved by the fact most of his form, and stablemate's Takingrisks, is in small fields; that same comment also applies to Blue Flight - the last six-year-old to win was Earth Summit in 1994, trained by handler Nigel Twiston-Davies. I note that son Sam is on Cogry...

Geronimo is one of those racing from out of the handicap but his victory here the last day suggests he'll stay the trip; should he come home in front, Rachael McDonald will become the first female rider to win this prestigious race.

A fiercely competitive renewal - it's possible to construct a case for several of the bigger priced horses.

I'm going to stay loyal to Crosspark (ahead of Impulsive Star) who did me a favour in the Eider back in February.

Further down the field Cogry looks big enough at 25/1 (sent off 9/2 favourite for Warwick's Classic Chase in January) as does Acdc at 33/1 on the back of his three length third to Crosshue Boy here last year.

Crosspark is the each-way suggestion at 14/1, with most layers paying one fifth the odds six places.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Excellent write-up and I can certainly see Crosspark running a big race but the odds in this competitive affair might be a bit skinny.

I've sorted my system output by % win chance rather than rating and not withstanding your comments I'll take a small EW chance on Blue Flight at 33/1 6 places 1/5 odds. The system rates Crosshue Boy as the least likely winner though I think it will have been a bit confused by CB's prep runs for this which can confuse the model!

Good luck!

TW

RTG Horse Chance
173 BLUE FLIGHT(FR) 6.23%
170 VINTAGE CLOUDS(IRE) 5.17%
171 KINGSWELL THEATRE(GB) 5.03%
172 SIZING CODELCO(IRE) 5.00%
169 CROSSPARK(GB) 4.90%
171 CHIDSWELL(IRE) 4.61%
172 COGRY(GB) 4.58%
171 GERONIMO(GB) 4.57%
174 BIG RIVER(IRE) 4.35%
171 CLOTH CAP(IRE) 4.26%
174 ACDC(IRE) 4.22%
168 MORNEY WING(IRE) 4.20%
172 IMPULSIVE STAR(IRE) 4.13%
169 MYSTEREE(IRE) 3.91%
171 BRIAN BORANHA(IRE) 3.52%
171 BEAU DU BRIZAIS(FR) 3.46%
165 VAN GOGH DU GRANIT(FR) 3.45%
171 ARTHUR'S GIFT(IRE) 3.08%
170 SKIPTHECUDDLES(IRE) 3.06%
168 BEWARE THE BEAR(IRE) 2.66%
165 CHIC NAME(FR) 2.62%
169 CAROLE'S DESTRIER(GB) 2.45%
174 DINGO DOLLAR(IRE) 2.42%
169 RED INFANTRY(IRE) 2.38%
167 DOING FINE(IRE) 2.04%
169 TAKINGRISKS(IRE) 1.92%
169 RATHLIN ROSE(IRE) 1.72%
163 CROSSHUE BOY(IRE) 0.06%

GeeDee said...

Good luck TW!

GeeDee said...

Beware The Bear now declared non-runner on account of drying ground.

GeeDee said...

The last horse to win the Eider Chase and the Scottish National in the same season was the Jenny Pitman trained Willsford in 1995.

Just for a moment I thought selection Crosspark (10/1) might repeat the trick as he battled with Takingrisks (25/1) up the long home straight; in the event the latter proved too strong, going on to win by four lengths while Crosspark barely clung on for second as Cloth Cap and Blue Flight both ate up ground on the run-in.

Cloth Cap (9/1) was a nose behind in third while TW's selection Blue Flight (25/1) ran a fine race to finish a neck adrift in fourth. I'd imagine connections of both runners will be dreaming of things to come this evening - the Twiston-Davies inmate stands over 18 hands high and certainly caught the eye in the paddock.

Big River (8/1) was another to make plenty of ground late on to finish fifth and will be better suited by more testing conditions while Vintage Clouds (5/1f) was sixth.

The card was dogged by a certain amount of controversy with 13 withdrawals on account of the drying ground, five of them in the National: Arthur's Gift, Beware The Bear, Dingo Dollar, Kingswell Theatre and Mysteree.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/drying-ground-causes-plethora-of-non-runners-across-scottish-grand-national-card/375696

The official going was changed from good to good, good to firm in places, after the National.