Friday, October 26, 2007

Aintree on Saturday

Fifteen go to post in the first, the juvenile novice hurdle, which is due off at 1.10. Paul Nicholls' Qrackers sets the standard and is likely to start favourite. Three others to catch the eye are News Of The Day, Smugglers Bay and Chip N Pin. News Of The Day won easily at Market Rasen but has since been unsuccessful in handicaps on the Flat. Tim Easterby runs Smugglers Bay and Chip N Pin; it looks as though the jockey has chosen to ride Smugglers above Chip N Pin, but in general the Easterby yard hasn't been in the best of form. Chip N Pin's fourth behind Falcon's Fire and Franchoek reads well, she has the top speed rating and on a rough line through Franchoek she should be competitive against Qrackers. I'm tempted but I'll play safe here and support Qrackers who could be value if sent off at 11/4 as today's tissue suggests.

The novice chase at 1.40 has just six entries. The four year old Marodima is the Racing Post's top rated horse by some way and turned in a decent performance last weekend at Cheltenham behind Tramantano. He looks a headstrong individual and I'd envisage Timmy Murphy allowing him to bowl along in front, a tactic that tends to work well here. According to this week's Weekender Leslingtaylor hasn't had that many schooling sessions so of the other runners I prefer Dev to Cantgeton. A trappy affair with a lot depending on how Marodima performs, as most of his runs have been on ground with cut. Dev is the top rated speed horse and in the tissue offers better value - he's the selection.

In the 2.10 Lord Baskerville is an each way wager at a big price, as he ran better than his finishing position indicated last time at Huntingdon and also has previous course and distance winning form.

In the finale, the novices' handicap hurdle, I'll support Nelson's Spice as this horse looks as though he'll stay the three miles, but established chaser I Hear Thunder is to be feared if fit, running off what looks a rather lenient mark.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Sometimes you just wonder why you bother. Qrackers (9/4 jf) ran very flat to finish sixth behind Smugglers Bay (15/2), with Chip N Pin running creditably to finish third at 10/1. Qrackers appeared to run in snatches and I think I'm correct in saying the jockey reported afterwars that the horse had breathing problems.
I couldn't believe Dev was priced up at 12/1 in places before the novice chase. Angus Loughran was stood close-by; after he'd done a piece to camera I asked him what he thought of that price. 'It's a hot race' was his reply. He told me he'd had a word for Leslingtaylor; I bet Dev at 11/1 and had a saver on Leslingtaylor at 100/30. Dev got involved in a battle for the lead very early on with My Condor. I'd expected Dev to jump better than he did but by the second last I was glad I'd had the saver as Leslingtaylor came on the scene and went on to win well; Dev finshed third at 8/1. Marodima (evens favourite) needs to learn to settle; Timmy Murphy had his hands full getting the horse to the start.
Lord Baskerville (10/1) petered out to finish seventh and, to put the top hat on it all, strong fancy Nelson's Spice (11/4 favourite) fell at the second. I won't be giving up the day job.