Friday, April 13, 2007

Grand National selections

Last night, with this week's copy of The Weekender at my side, I went through the forty declared National runners and came up with a list of six possibles. Here they are in the order I think they'll finish.

1. Point Barrow - has an excellent profile in terms of age, weight and form. Acts on the ground. In an open race, the statistics point to this horse as the most likely winner.
2. McKelvey - tipped up on this blog three weeks ago when priced at 40/1. Stays, handles the ground, has jumped the fences previously. Reasonable each way value at 20/1.
3. Numbersixvalverde - last year's winner is a sound jumper who would prefer more cut in the ground. Has solid place claims.
4. Bewleys Berry - looks a National type, has jumped these fences previously and the stable is now in form. Reasonable each way value at around 25/1.
5. Longshanks - goes well fresh, jumped the fences previously. Concern he's suffered a bruised foot in the last fortnight. Priced at around 25/1.
6. Liberthine - mare with a good completion record over the course. Not absolutely certain to stay but you could argue that is factored into the price at 33/1. Place claims if she stays.
And finally, an over priced no hoper for the romantics amongst you... The Outlier. Good luck!


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Anonymous said...

Very bold of you to predict the first six. I've failed to get on on Thursday and yesterday. Just as well, as I'd have backed Black Jack and Wichita. Pondering my strategy for today

Anonymous said...

Intresting...after exhaustive analysis I go with you and Point barrow. My son favours Simon and my daughter Joe's Edge

GeeDee said...

Didn't pick the 33/1 winner, Silver Birch; here's how the selections fared...

8/1 co-favourite Point Barrow fell at the first - what a disappointment!

Fast finishing McKelvey, backed down to 12/1 at the off, ran a storming race to finish three quarters of a length second to the winner. For a few moments I thought he was going to get there.

Numbersixvalverde (14/1) finished a highly creditable sixth. I think the weight and quicker ground found him out in the latter stages of the race.

Bewleys Berry, a 22/1 shot, was in the lead and in the process of running a big race when crumpling on landing at Becher's second time around.

Longshanks (14/1) tired towards the end of the race to finish a gallant seventh. Given the problems he's had over the past fortnight, this was a very good effort.

Gutsy Liberthine (40/1) gave amateur Sam Waley-Cohen a great ride to finish fifth; if you backed this horse, I hope you did so with a bookie who paid on fifth place.

On balance, a reasonable effort with four of the six selections finishing in the first seven and the fifth selection falling when in the lead.