Friday, March 22, 2024

The day after the Lord Mayor's show

The post Cheltenham clean-up operation started at PGHQ on Monday. 

The Racing Desk was hidden from plain sight by all kinds of detritus: old copies of the Weekender; shredded copies of the Racing Post; battered form books; a pizza box; pencils and pencil shavings; a scarf; half a cup of cold tea; numerous screwed up betting slips - including one for The Real Whacker; a pack of cheap biros; a reel of sellotape with a button at the end; a Ludlow racecard; a coupon for 30 bonus Nectar points when you buy Sainsbury's Bake At Home Baguettes; a packet of Wotsits; two six inch rulers; one flat cap; four receipts from Londis; a stale crisp; one glove; a copy of BBC Sports Report by Pat Murphy; two Deep Heat pain relief patches; and endless scraps of paper full of handicap ratings and adjusted ratings, official figures, speed figures and recondite calculations, together with a shopping list for spuds, onions, carrots, body lotion, bin bags and bananas. Where did that come from?  

Anyway, the consensus opinion appeared to be this year's Festival was rather flat Tuesday and Wednesday; better Thursday and Friday, with the Gold Cup one to remember.

The BHA promptly issued a statement on Irish dominance; Dr Richard Newland had his say on the matter.

Total attendance over the four days was 229,999, 11,000 down on last year (240,603).

Wednesday's figure of 46,771 was noticeably lower. 

Comments from the chief executive of the Jockey Club Nevin Truesdale: 'This is our sport's week. We should be uniting around it', appeared defensive. 

Only five of the 27 races retuned a winner at double figure odds: (Unexpected Party 12/1); Monmiral (25/1); Golden Ace (10/1); Absurde (12/1) and Stellar Story (33/1).

In days gone by my annual pilgrimage to Prestbury Park for the Wednesday meet was considered 'de rigueur' but in the past ten years I've only been on three occasions: 

2017 (Might Bite tries to throw away the RSA Chase and Special Tiara gives me a day out to remember); 

2018 (Douvan travelling sweetly in the Champion Chase when coming to grief four out); 

2020 (One pair of respectable black shoes ruined by the mud, after watching the cross country race next to the Cheese Wedges). 

To be perfectly honest, in recent years I just haven't felt the need to return. 

Anyway, a few days after the Lord Mayor's show I'm off to the Newbury races where the going is described as good to soft, soft in places. 

Mares' novices' hurdles are no particular speciality of mine; nineteen have been declared for the Grade Two at 3.15. 

Favourite Party Vibes won going away from Ooh Betty over an extended two mile trip at Market Rasen four and a half weeks ago. 

El Elefante beat Kay Tara Tara two and a quarter lengths at Ayr a fortnight ago but now has to concede 11 pounds to that rival. In the RP Weekender Alan King says of his charge: 

"She was much happier on the better ground up there [at Ayr] so the more it dries up here the better her chance."

Paul Nicholls thinks '113 is a very competitive mark to go in this race' for Larchmont Lass. Last time  Larchmont Lass had Baby Shally and Imperial Jade in arrears at Wincanton.

Smiling Getaway was well beaten by Springtime Promise and Cherie D'Am in the Jane Seymour at Sandown last month; Springtime Promise held an entry in the mares' novices' hurdle at the Festival.

Smiling Getaway had All The Glory over 17 lengths behind in fifth at Ludlow in December and Marmalade Time 47 lengths behind in eleventh - three weeks ago Marmalade Time beat Lindy Reilly 

Next time out Smiling Getaway beat Break My Soul at Warwick; Nicky Henderson's mare, a £290,000 purchase, runs in the novice handicap hurdle at 2.10.

Three runners make some appeal as a potential each-way play.

Paul Kealy makes a case for All The Glory in the RP Weekender, pointing out she's likely to appreciate drying ground; her form behind Shanagh Bob at Plumpton in November reads well, given that Shanagh Bob would have been towards the top of the market for the Albert Bartlett if Henderson's horses been in good health.

Condesa finished a long way behind El Elefante at Perth in September but her subsequent second behind Springtime Promise at Sedgefield at the end of January puts her right in the mix. She looks overpriced at 20/1.

Alfie's Princess finished ahead of Endless Supply twice in the autumn. 

Next time Sam Thomas' charge was fifth behind Pawapuri at Haydock, El Elefante three lengths ahead in fourth. Afterwards the trainer commented [RP Weekender 03-07.01.24]:

"She's got plenty of ability and won her first two starts this season at Chepstow and Exeter. I was slightly disappointed with her last run at Haydock, where she finished fifth. They went really quickly and I think we rode her a little bit wrong [led, then headed]. She probably wants a little bit further and we'll ride her more patiently next time."

At Sandown next time she was outpaced by two geldings, Jingko Blue (ran in the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last week) and Titan Discovery (beaten half a length by Boombawn at Kempton on Saturday). 

The handicapper only dropped her one pound for that effort but she had Zain Nights half a length behind and that one pipped Take No Chances and Hermino AA in a three-way photo at Newbury this afternoon. 

A wide open event; I'm going to take a small each-way interest in Alfie's Princess.

Alfie's Princess is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

12 comments:

TW said...

FWIW

Horse,Rating
EL ELEFANTE (IRE),133
ALL THE GLORY,132
LINDY REILLY,131
PARTY VIBES (IRE),130
KAY TARA TARA,130
ALFIE'S PRINCESS (IRE),129
MARMALADE TIME,129
OOH BETTY (IRE),128
LARCHMONT LASS (IRE),128
DRUMLEE SPUD (IRE),127
DONTYAWANTME (IRE),126
IMPERIAL JADE (IRE),126
SMILING GETAWAY,126
BABY SHALLY (IRE),125
CONDESA (IRE),123
ENDLESS SUPPLY (IRE),115
LILTING VERSE (IRE),113

Enjoy the day!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.
Good luck at Doncaster!

TW said...

Further FWIW(s)

Top 3 rated in the other races on today's Newbury card.

13:40

CANNOCK PARK,139
NEXT LEFT (IRE),134
LARIO (GER),132

14:10

SPIRITS BAY,139
INTO THE PARK (IRE),137
PRETENDING (IRE),135

14:40

GUSTAVIAN (IRE),165
GALAHAD QUEST (FR),163
EATON COLLINA (IRE),162

15:50

AUTHENTIC LEGACY,121
CREST OF FORTUNE,119
ANDASHAN (IRE),115

16:25

DUHALLOW TOMMY (IRE),145
MOUNT TEMPEST (IRE),142
ONEMOREFORTHEROAD,141
RATH GAUL HILL (IRE),141

17:00

DEMACHINE (IRE),153
ASHTOWN LAD (IRE),150
CERTAINLY RED,149
FIRST LORD DE CUET (FR),149


Now, back to the Lincoln Handicap...

TW

GeeDee said...

Cheers, TW!

GeeDee said...

Racing at Newbury was severely delayed following a medical incident involving a member of ground staff at the track. The Mares' Hurdle was off at 16.24.

Alfie's Princess (10/1) raced just off the pace set by Party Vibes (6/1).

The selection was challenging at the final flight when El Elefante (11/1) came down, hindering Party Vibes in the process. Alfie's Princess was left in the lead but she didn't stay there too long as Jonjo O'Neill Jr was clearly holding a double handful aboard All The Glory (25/1).

Sent about his business, All The Glory won a comfortable nine lengths with Alfie's Princess second, Ooh Betty (22/1) third, having made significant headway from the rear, and Larchmont Lass (5/1) fourth.

GeeDee said...

Correction:

Sent about *her* business, All The Glory won a comfortable nine lengths...

TW said...

Alfie's Princess is the each-way suggestion, 14/1 generally with most layers paying five places.

Well done with Alfie's Princess, great shout.

If the rest day went as well you may have a surfeit of cash that needs investing. As an alternative to the local building society you may want to consider the higher risk 2-10 at Ascot where Maninsane has caught the system’s eye at odds of 20/1.

Horse,Rating
STORMINHOME (IRE),137
MANINSANE (IRE),137
ROCKINASTORM (IRE),136
JACKS TOUCH (IRE),136
CARTONNE (FR),135
KING'S THRESHOLD (IRE),135
INVINCIBLE NAO (FR),134
SAGEBURG COUNTY (IRE),133
GODOT (IRE),133
HURLERONTHEDITCH (IRE),130
DREAM IN THE PARK (IRE),119

Easy to ignore the LTO pulled up on ground bordering heavy, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 111 [won off 115], the extra yardage of today’s race not sure to suit but the system penciled him in as a 10/1 shot, so 20/1 EW 4 places was too good to overlook.

TW

GeeDee said...

Interesting, TW; 22/1 with a few layers, 25/1 with bet365 at the moment.

Just looked up latest Charlie Longsdon Stable Tour notes I have [Weekender 11-15.01.23]:

"He [Maninsane] was successful at Huntingdon in November [19 November 2022] over 2m4f but failed to reproduce that over Christmas [28 December 2022] when he did not appreciate the ground. The 2m4f at Leicester was not ideal for him and we could bring him back in trip next time if the ground were similar. However, on a flatter more galloping track we could get away with 2m4f as we did earlier this season." [Behind Cooper's Cross At Carlisle?]

The official going at both Huntingdon and Leicester was described as good so I'm not clear what point Mr. Longsdon is making - at a guess it was probably quick at Leicester (as it can be on the chase track.)

Those notes are over 12 months old now so extra yardage not necessarily a negative.

Today's better ground at Ascot should suit. As you say, won a 2m handicap chase at Southwell this time last year off 115 so is potentially well treated on 111; overall to me his profile looks inconsistent.

Will Lilly Pinchin go from the front or ride him to get the trip?

He's certainly in the mix on RPRs but with trainer form somewhat dubious (1 from 16 in past fortnight) I'll watch with interest from the sidelines.

Good luck!

TW said...

Thanks for your observations, trainer form and the 2M5F trip have no doubt contributed to the market drift. I’m on at 20’s without BOG, I still think the return to better ground and the drop in handicap mark allow for the potential for him to be over priced...well see!

I think Lilly will be sat in the pack for much of the race.

TW

GeeDee said...

Four places a definite bonus, TW.

Good luck!

TW said...

Ouch…read the race and the odds wrong...but other than that!

TW

GeeDee said...

Don't worry, TW.

Lost count of the times I've done the very same thing.

Onwards and upwards!