Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Thursday

Earlier this afternoon Willie Mullins became the first trainer to send out 100 winners at the Cheltenham Festival when his son Patrick rode 9/2 chance Jasmin De Vaux to victory in the concluding bumper.

The going is currently described as soft, heavy in places, with further rain forecast from 1.00 tomorrow afternoon.

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase

Facile Vega didn't jump particularly well when third behind Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty at the Dublin Racing Festival; he tries this trip for the first time.

There wouldn't be much between Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny. 

Back in December, in receipt of three pounds, Ginny's Destiny beat Grey Dawning threequarters of a length. That doesn't necessarily tell the whole tale as Grey Dawning made a howler two out and did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances.  

Stepped up to three miles next time, Grey Dawning won the Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick in something approaching a common canter. Connections have taken this option rather than the Brown Advisory on account of the soft ground. 

Iroko won the Martin Pipe last year and is a fine prospect; however he has just one chase start to his name. 

Six-year-olds have won two of the last ten renewals (Vautour in 2015 and Defi Du Seuill in 2019); no horse older than eight has come home in front in the same timeframe.

The price doesn't make too much appeal but Grey Dawning is my idea of the winner.

Selection: Grey Dawning win, 9/4 at the time of writing.

2.10 Pertemps Final

I'm a fan of Cuthbert Dibble (and the Trumpton fire brigade for that matter) but he looked to have a hard enough race when 'all out' to beat Lord Snootie (of 'The Beano' fame) at Haydock three and a half weeks ago. 

The handicapper raised him six pounds for that win and, with Sam Twiston-Davies replacing five pound claimer Finn Lambert in the plate, he's effectively 11 pounds higher here. 

At the prices stablemate Gowel Road is perhaps of more interest; his fourth behind the ill-fated Slate Lane with Fine Margin second and Crambo (5/1 second favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle at 3.30) third reads well. Looking through his profile there's a suggestion he can find himself outpaced at the business end of a race - even on heavy ground - before staying on again.

Course and distance winner White Rhino - stablemate of Iroko in the first - has been well touted on the preview circuit.   

With a chase rating of 150, the 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos could be thrown in on 142;  the horse has had a number of issues this season but handler Dan Skelton issued an upbeat bulletin earlier. 

The yard has hit form in no uncertain terms today. 

Langer Dan won the Coral Cup with something to spare and a couple of hours later Unexpected Party won the Grand Annual; at the time of writing Le Milos is 6/1 favourite.

Rated 155 over fences, Chantry House is another chaser well in off 143 but he wouldn't be one to trust implicitly.

Gordon Elliott boasts a good record in this race - Jack Kennedy rides Cleatus Poolaw - and Ted Walsh's sole runner, Gaoth Chuil, catches the eye.    

Springwell Bay is one I like. 

He won with a bit in hand on seasonal debut, a fact that didn't escape the attention of the handicapper.

Last time over three miles at Musselburgh he was was pipped a neck by Curley Finger (Hector Javilex third, Noble Birth ninth) and the handicapper reacted by giving him another two pounds for his trouble. He has his share of weight, granted, but he has won at the track previously and rates an each-way wager.

Selection: Springwell Bay each-way, 14/1 with Sky who pay eight places.

2.50 Ryanair Chase

Envoi Allen beat Shishkin in this race last year and goes for a double previously completed by Allaho (2021/22) and Albertas Run (2010/11); Albertas Run is the last ten-year-old to win this race. 

Stage Star won the Turners last year and the Paddy Power Gold Cup on seasonal debut in the autumn but was pulled up in a handicap chase over course and distance on New Year's Day - Paul Nicholls reported the gelding stiff after that race.

Banbridge would have been the pick on better ground. 

Under a classic Paul Townend hold up ride, Capodanno breezed through the field to win the Cotswold Chase from The Real Whacker, with Stay Away Fay third and Ahoy Senor fourth. Apart from winning a Clonmel maiden over two miles in 2021, all Capodanno's winning form is at three miles plus.

Gold Cup defector Ahoy Senor looked a tad unlucky in that race as Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to be travelling well when Stephen Mulqueen's right stirrup leather broke four out. He has since finished third behind Pic D'Orhy and L'Homme Presse in the Betfair Ascot Chase.

Connections have chosen to run here rather than in the Gold Cup, as assistant trainer Peter Scudamore explains:

"It was a difficult decision...but the belief is he's got another year in him when he could go for the Gold Cup. I felt his run last year impacted how he ran at Aintree after, when he'd had a hard season.

"He's got a good chance in the Ryanair and Derek [Fox] would like it if he ran in it. His owners very sportingly gave our blessing to do so."   

I'm going to chance another Gold Cup defector, Protektorat. 

Having finished third behind A Plus Tard in the 2022 Gold Cup and fifth behind Galopin Des Champs in last year's renewal, it's clear connections think their charge doesn't quite get up the hill. He tends to race quite keenly; last time he led from the front in the Denman Chase at Newbury where he finished third behind Shishkin and Hitman. 

I'm hoping this step back in trip will help his cause.

Selection: Protektorat each-way, 9/1 with bet365 paying four places.

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle

Some old friends make an appearance here.

I tipped Teahupoo for last year's renewal but he was held by Dashel Drasher on the run to the line when Sire Du Berlais went past them both to win at odds of 33/1, with Flooring Porter fourth.

Flooring Porter has done the blog a favour twice in recent times, winning this event at 12/1 in 2021 and at 4/1 in 2022. He tends to race from the front, although he's maybe not quite as headstrong as he once was in his younger days. (Ditto.) 

Gavin Cromwell's charge has contested three novice chases this term (beat Broadway Boy at this track in the autumn) but it looks as though this has been the target since Christmas.

Crambo heads the British challenge. 

He beat Paisley Park a short head on good ground in the Long Walk at Ascot in December (Dashel Drasher third). This will probably represent his first try at this trip on ground this deep.

Paisley Park beat Sam Spinner in this race in 2019. 

This term the twelve-year-old has been beaten a short-head by Dashel Drasher; a short-head by Crambo; and a head by Noble Yeats. Connections will feel they're due a change of luck.

We've learned to expect the unexpected from Emmet Mullins. 

This year Grand National winner Noble Yeats has been campaigned over hurdles; he's currently quoted at 16/1 for the Aintree showpiece in April. 

Last time in the Cleeve he appeared outpaced on the home turn before fighting back to just hold Paisley Park on the line. Connections have opted to fit cheekpieces.

This has been the target all season for Teahupoo who comes into the race a fresh horse; he looks the one to beat. Sir Gerhard has never won at this trip and Tom Segal likes Home By The Lee but at the prices I'll take an each-way interest in one of the old brigade.

Selection: Sire Du Berlais each-way, currently 14/1 with Coral who pay four places. 

13 comments:

TW said...

Part 2

4:10 TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase 2m4½f

Top Rated
STRAW FAN JACK,172
CIEL DE NEIGE (FR),168
FRERO BANBOU (FR),168
SHAKEM UP'ARRY (IRE),168
IL RIDOTO (FR),166
KILLER KANE (IRE),165
THEATRE MAN (IRE),164

Off a mark of 133 Straw Fan Jack is very well handicapped but the ground will not have dried enough to see him at this best.

Ciel De Neige is also potentially very well handicapped off 135. CDN’s last three runs have been over a stamina sapping 3 miles, he drops back to a much more favourable trip in this. Whilst not going to win, he was running decent race in last year’s Topham, still in the mix, before falling two out off a mark of 152. If he is still in love with the game, the return to more suitable conditions and a lowly mark of 135 might see him in a better light. I’m excited to take the chance at 80/1.

Frero Banbou is also of interest off 133.


4:50 Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle 2m1f

Top Rated
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (FR),159
DYSART ENOS (IRE),152
JADE DE GRUGY (FR),150

A race I’ll probably skip but if Brighterdaysahead gets above 2/1 I might step in.

5:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase 3m2f

Top Rated
RAPPER,161
DEMNAT (FR),160
WHERE IT ALL BEGAN (IRE),160
ANNUAL INVICTUS (IRE),159
BOWTOGREATNESS (IRE),158
FAKIR D'ALENE (FR),158
CITY CHIEF (IRE),158
CELEBRE D'ALLEN (FR),158

Jockey booking aside, I think I’m missing why, possibly, flattering efforts in better company allow Inothewayyuorthinkin to be so short in this?

On a going day Rapper would be in with a shout, but that’s not a given. It’s possible Demnat bounced on his second run after a long lay off and/or the drop back in trip did not suit, but I’m not ready to invest in him. At odds of 10/1, Where It All Began looks a bit too high at 135. The ground might have gone against Annual Invictus.

Looking at the other four top rated I’ll take a punt on Fakir D’Alene. Fourth in this race in 2022 off 144 he then missed all of the 2022/2023 season. Returned with a decent effort off 140 in November, brought down too early in December and ran flat in very testing conditions in January. Off 141 here with a rider claiming 3lb he might get in the mix at 33/1 5 places.


Best of luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your ratings, TW.
Didn't receive Part 1?

TW said...

Part 1 : Take 2

1:30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f

Top Rated
GREY DAWNING (IRE),175
GINNY'S DESTINY (IRE),172
DJELO (FR),169
FACILE VEGA (IRE),169

I think Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny look to be priced about right, Facile Vega too short and Djelo too big.

No rush to get on but I’ll be taking an interest in Djelo EW at 20/1+. He’s only a 6yo, done nothing wrong since switching to the bigger obstacles and might have come up against a good one in the Sicily Isles.

2:10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
Horse,Rating
MONMIRAL (FR),170
GABBYS CROSS (IRE),164
HYLAND (FR),163
GOWEL ROAD (IRE),163
ICARE ALLEN (FR),163
J'AI FROID (IRE),163
BOLD ENDEAVOUR,162
CHANTRY HOUSE (IRE),162
KYNTARA,162
JUDICIAL LAW (IRE),162
FLIGHT DECK (IRE),162
SPRINGWELL BAY,162

Monmiral could be a very well handicapped horse if he can genuinely perform at this trip and the first time blinkers spark a revival but too many ifs for me.

Not a bet to set the pulse racing but Gowel Road ticks enough boxes to have an interest in the race at 28/1 EW 6 1:30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f

Top Rated
GREY DAWNING (IRE),175
GINNY'S DESTINY (IRE),172
DJELO (FR),169
FACILE VEGA (IRE),169

I think Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny look to be priced about right, Facile Vega too short and Djelo too big.

No rush to get on but I’ll be taking an interest in Djelo EW at 20/1+. He’s only a 6yo, done nothing wrong since switching to the bigger obstacles and might have come up against a good one in the Sicily Isles.

2:10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
Horse,Rating
MONMIRAL (FR),170
GABBYS CROSS (IRE),164
HYLAND (FR),163
GOWEL ROAD (IRE),163
ICARE ALLEN (FR),163
J'AI FROID (IRE),163
BOLD ENDEAVOUR,162
CHANTRY HOUSE (IRE),162
KYNTARA,162
JUDICIAL LAW (IRE),162
FLIGHT DECK (IRE),162
SPRINGWELL BAY,162

Monmiral could be a very well handicapped horse if he can genuinely perform at this trip and the first time blinkers spark a revival but too many ifs for me.

Not a bet to set the pulse racing but Gowel Road ticks enough boxes to have an interest in the race at 28/1 EW 6 places.


2:50 Ryanair Chase 2m4½f

Top Rated
ENVOI ALLEN (FR),184
PROTEKTORAT (FR),180
STAGE STAR (IRE),178
BANBRIDGE (IRE),177

I’ll take 4/1+ about Envoi Allen if it becomes available, I don’t think the trip is far enough for Protektorat, Stage Star and Banbridge look too short in the market.

3:30 Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
TEAHUPOO (FR),182
SIRE DU BERLAIS (FR),178
CRAMBO,174
HOME BY THE LEE (IRE),174

Nothing wrong with Teahupoo apart from his odds, that said I not that keen to take him on either, I thought about Sire Du Berlais but decided against it, I’ll take a watching brief.places.


2:50 Ryanair Chase 2m4½f

Top Rated
ENVOI ALLEN (FR),184
PROTEKTORAT (FR),180
STAGE STAR (IRE),178
BANBRIDGE (IRE),177

I’ll take 4/1+ about Envoi Allen if it becomes available, I don’t think the trip is far enough for Protektorat, Stage Star and Banbridge look too short in the market.

3:30 Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
TEAHUPOO (FR),182
SIRE DU BERLAIS (FR),178
CRAMBO,174
HOME BY THE LEE (IRE),174

Nothing wrong with Teahupoo apart from his odds, that said I not that keen to take him on either, I thought about Sire Du Berlais but decided against it, I’ll take a watching brief.

TW

GeeDee said...

I think there's a race in Straw Fan Jack.
The trouble is I'm certain I'm going to miss it.

GeeDee said...

Part 1 published. Thanks.

TW said...

Ground still drying and going officially soft this morning.

Not sure what happened with Part 1 but I've done a bit of housekeeping.

I ended up with more that I wanted on Stay Away Fay, irrespective of how good Fact To File might be SAF [using Giovinco as a yard stick] ran too bad to be true, that’s racing.

Stewards Report:

Following the race, Harry Cobden reported that STAY AWAY FAY (IRE), which was pulled up, was never travelling; the Veterinary Officer reported that the gelding had lost its left-fore shoe. The representative of Paul Nicholls further reported that STAY AWAY FAY (IRE) scoped dirty post-race.


Only crumbs from Gemirande placing mean the hole I’m digging is getting deeper, I'm not sure Day 3 will get me out of it.

Part 1 : Take 3

1:30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f

Top Rated
GREY DAWNING (IRE),175
GINNY'S DESTINY (IRE),172
DJELO (FR),169
FACILE VEGA (IRE),169

I think Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny look to be priced about right, Facile Vega too short and Djelo too big.

No rush to get on but I’ll be taking an interest in Djelo EW at 20/1+. He’s only a 6yo, done nothing wrong since switching to the bigger obstacles and might have come up against a good one in the Sicily Isles.

2:10 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
Horse,Rating
MONMIRAL (FR),170
GABBYS CROSS (IRE),164
HYLAND (FR),163
GOWEL ROAD (IRE),163
ICARE ALLEN (FR),163
J'AI FROID (IRE),163
BOLD ENDEAVOUR,162
CHANTRY HOUSE (IRE),162
KYNTARA,162
JUDICIAL LAW (IRE),162
FLIGHT DECK (IRE),162
SPRINGWELL BAY,162

Monmiral could be a very well handicapped horse if he can genuinely perform at this trip and the first time blinkers spark a revival but too many ifs for me.

Not a bet to set the pulse racing but Gowel Road ticks enough boxes to have an interest in the race at 28/1 EW 6 1:30 Turners Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f

I thought a mark of 145 gave Springwell Bay just a bit too much to find.


2:50 Ryanair Chase 2m4½f

Top Rated
ENVOI ALLEN (FR),184
PROTEKTORAT (FR),180
STAGE STAR (IRE),178
BANBRIDGE (IRE),177

I’ll take 4/1+ about Envoi Allen if it becomes available, I don’t think the trip is far enough for Protektorat, Stage Star and Banbridge look too short in the market.

3:30 Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle 3m

Top Rated
TEAHUPOO (FR),182
SIRE DU BERLAIS (FR),178
CRAMBO,174
HOME BY THE LEE (IRE),174

Nothing wrong with Teahupoo apart from his odds, that said I not that keen to take him on either, I thought about Sire Du Berlais but decided against it, I’ll take a watching brief.places.

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

SAF one of the first beaten, TW.
Good luck!

TW said...

Selection: Grey Dawning win, 9/4 at the time of writing.

Cracking start to day three for the blog...

TW

GeeDee said...

For once, went to plan, TW...

Good run from Djelo at a price to claim third.

GeeDee said...

Top rated Monmiral wins @ 25/1, TW.
Gowel Road sixth.

TW said...

Looked hard at Monmiral but then let it run without my money :-(

But did take 6 places Gowel Road so all was not lost.

Springwell Bay pulled on account of the going, not sure if Jonjo thought it had dried out too much or not enough!

TW

TW said...

Selection: Protektorat each-way, 9/1 with bet365 paying four places.

The day gets better for the blog, very well done...

I thought he would look once paced against these, but you certainly called it right!

TW

GeeDee said...

The Turners developed into a race between Grey Dawning (5/2jf) and Ginny's Destiny (11/2); the selection came home two lengths ahead, with a decent effort from Djelo (25/1) eight lengths further adrift in third.

Springwell Bay was declared a non-runner in the Pertemps. 25/1 chance Monmiral beat Kyntara (16/1) with Cuthbert Dibble (11/2f) third and Bold Endeavour (50/1) fourth.

Protektorat (17/2) travelled strongly behind the leaders in the Ryanair. Envoi Allen (9/4f) looked a big threat approaching the last but the selection stayed on well to win four lengths with Conflated (11/1) third.

In a slowly run Stayers' Hurdle, selection Sire Du Berlais (14/1) was badly outpaced from three out and sat stone cold last rounding the home turn. He made good ground up the hill to finish fifth but could never land a blow.

The spoils went to the well-backed Teahupoo (5/4f), with Flooring Porter (10/1) second, Home By The Lee (16/1) third and outsider Buddy One (40/1) a creditable fourth.