Cheltenham Festival 2024 - Thursday

Earlier this afternoon Willie Mullins became the first trainer to send out 100 winners at the Cheltenham Festival when his son Patrick rode 9/2 chance Jasmin De Vaux to victory in the concluding bumper.

The going is currently described as soft, heavy in places, with further rain forecast from 1.00 tomorrow afternoon.

1.30 Turners Novices' Chase

Facile Vega didn't jump particularly well when third behind Il Etait Temps and Found A Fifty at the Dublin Racing Festival; he tries this trip for the first time.

There wouldn't be much between Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny. 

Back in December, in receipt of three pounds, Ginny's Destiny beat Grey Dawning threequarters of a length. That doesn't necessarily tell the whole tale as Grey Dawning made a howler two out and did well to finish as close as he did in the circumstances.  

Stepped up to three miles next time, Grey Dawning won the Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick in something approaching a common canter. Connections have taken this option rather than the Brown Advisory on account of the soft ground. 

Iroko won the Martin Pipe last year and is a fine prospect; however he has just one chase start to his name. 

Six-year-olds have won two of the last ten renewals (Vautour in 2015 and Defi Du Seuill in 2019); no horse older than eight has come home in front in the same timeframe.

The price doesn't make too much appeal but Grey Dawning is my idea of the winner.

Selection: Grey Dawning win, 9/4 at the time of writing.

2.10 Pertemps Final

I'm a fan of Cuthbert Dibble (and the Trumpton fire brigade for that matter) but he looked to have a hard enough race when 'all out' to beat Lord Snootie (of 'The Beano' fame) at Haydock three and a half weeks ago. 

The handicapper raised him six pounds for that win and, with Sam Twiston-Davies replacing five pound claimer Finn Lambert in the plate, he's effectively 11 pounds higher here. 

At the prices stablemate Gowel Road is perhaps of more interest; his fourth behind the ill-fated Slate Lane with Fine Margin second and Crambo (5/1 second favourite for the Stayers' Hurdle at 3.30) third reads well. Looking through his profile there's a suggestion he can find himself outpaced at the business end of a race - even on heavy ground - before staying on again.

Course and distance winner White Rhino - stablemate of Iroko in the first - has been well touted on the preview circuit.   

With a chase rating of 150, the 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos could be thrown in on 142;  the horse has had a number of issues this season but handler Dan Skelton issued an upbeat bulletin earlier. 

The yard has hit form in no uncertain terms today. 

Langer Dan won the Coral Cup with something to spare and a couple of hours later Unexpected Party won the Grand Annual; at the time of writing Le Milos is 6/1 favourite.

Rated 155 over fences, Chantry House is another chaser well in off 143 but he wouldn't be one to trust implicitly.

Gordon Elliott boasts a good record in this race - Jack Kennedy rides Cleatus Poolaw - and Ted Walsh's sole runner, Gaoth Chuil, catches the eye.    

Springwell Bay is one I like. 

He won with a bit in hand on seasonal debut, a fact that didn't escape the attention of the handicapper.

Last time over three miles at Musselburgh he was was pipped a neck by Curley Finger (Hector Javilex third, Noble Birth ninth) and the handicapper reacted by giving him another two pounds for his trouble. He has his share of weight, granted, but he has won at the track previously and rates an each-way wager.

Selection: Springwell Bay each-way, 14/1 with Sky who pay eight places.

2.50 Ryanair Chase

Envoi Allen beat Shishkin in this race last year and goes for a double previously completed by Allaho (2021/22) and Albertas Run (2010/11); Albertas Run is the last ten-year-old to win this race. 

Stage Star won the Turners last year and the Paddy Power Gold Cup on seasonal debut in the autumn but was pulled up in a handicap chase over course and distance on New Year's Day - Paul Nicholls reported the gelding stiff after that race.

Banbridge would have been the pick on better ground. 

Under a classic Paul Townend hold up ride, Capodanno breezed through the field to win the Cotswold Chase from The Real Whacker, with Stay Away Fay third and Ahoy Senor fourth. Apart from winning a Clonmel maiden over two miles in 2021, all Capodanno's winning form is at three miles plus.

Gold Cup defector Ahoy Senor looked a tad unlucky in that race as Lucinda Russell's charge appeared to be travelling well when Stephen Mulqueen's right stirrup leather broke four out. He has since finished third behind Pic D'Orhy and L'Homme Presse in the Betfair Ascot Chase.

Connections have chosen to run here rather than in the Gold Cup, as assistant trainer Peter Scudamore explains:

"It was a difficult decision...but the belief is he's got another year in him when he could go for the Gold Cup. I felt his run last year impacted how he ran at Aintree after, when he'd had a hard season.

"He's got a good chance in the Ryanair and Derek [Fox] would like it if he ran in it. His owners very sportingly gave our blessing to do so."   

I'm going to chance another Gold Cup defector, Protektorat. 

Having finished third behind A Plus Tard in the 2022 Gold Cup and fifth behind Galopin Des Champs in last year's renewal, it's clear connections think their charge doesn't quite get up the hill. He tends to race quite keenly; last time he led from the front in the Denman Chase at Newbury where he finished third behind Shishkin and Hitman. 

I'm hoping this step back in trip will help his cause.

Selection: Protektorat each-way, 9/1 with bet365 paying four places.

3.30 Stayers' Hurdle

Some old friends make an appearance here.

I tipped Teahupoo for last year's renewal but he was held by Dashel Drasher on the run to the line when Sire Du Berlais went past them both to win at odds of 33/1, with Flooring Porter fourth.

Flooring Porter has done the blog a favour twice in recent times, winning this event at 12/1 in 2021 and at 4/1 in 2022. He tends to race from the front, although he's maybe not quite as headstrong as he once was in his younger days. (Ditto.) 

Gavin Cromwell's charge has contested three novice chases this term (beat Broadway Boy at this track in the autumn) but it looks as though this has been the target since Christmas.

Crambo heads the British challenge. 

He beat Paisley Park a short head on good ground in the Long Walk at Ascot in December (Dashel Drasher third). This will probably represent his first try at this trip on ground this deep.

Paisley Park beat Sam Spinner in this race in 2019. 

This term the twelve-year-old has been beaten a short-head by Dashel Drasher; a short-head by Crambo; and a head by Noble Yeats. Connections will feel they're due a change of luck.

We've learned to expect the unexpected from Emmet Mullins. 

This year Grand National winner Noble Yeats has been campaigned over hurdles; he's currently quoted at 16/1 for the Aintree showpiece in April. 

Last time in the Cleeve he appeared outpaced on the home turn before fighting back to just hold Paisley Park on the line. Connections have opted to fit cheekpieces.

This has been the target all season for Teahupoo who comes into the race a fresh horse; he looks the one to beat. Sir Gerhard has never won at this trip and Tom Segal likes Home By The Lee but at the prices I'll take an each-way interest in one of the old brigade.

Selection: Sire Du Berlais each-way, currently 14/1 with Coral who pay four places.