Shown below a record of the blog's highlighted selections at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival to a nominal one point level stakes wager (1 point win, 0.5 points each way) with bets settled at advised prices and each way returns calculated at one fifth the odds, except in the case of the Champion Chase (3.30 Wednesday) where, to avoid Rule 4 arithmetic, I've settled at starting price / one quarter the odds following the late withdrawals of both Jonbon and Boothill to leave a field of six.
Tuesday
5.30 NH Challenge Cup Novices' Chase
Selection: Mr Vango
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 22/1
Starting price: 14/1
Result: Third
Return: 2.70
Profit/Loss: +1.70
Profit/Loss Tuesday: +1.70
Wednesday
2.10 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
Selection: Stay Away Fay
Bet: Win
Advised price: 7/2
Starting price: 6/1
Result: Pulled up
Return: 0.00
Profit/Loss: -1.00
2.50 Coral Cup
Selection: Guard Your Dreams
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 18/1
Starting price: 25/1
Result: Eighteenth
Return: 0.00
Profit/Loss: -1.00
3.30 Champion Chase
Selection: Captain Guinness
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 11/1 (before two withdrawals)
Starting price: 17/2
Result: Win
Return: 6.31
Profit/Loss: +5.31
Profit/Loss Wednesday: +3.31
Thursday
1.30 Turners Novices' Chase
Selection: Grey Dawning
Bet: Win
Advised price: 9/4
Starting price: 5/2
Result: Win
Return: 3.25
Profit/Loss: +2.25
2.10 Pertemps Final
Selection: Springwell Bay
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 14/1
Result: Non runner
Profit/Loss: 0.00
2.50 Ryanair Chase
Selection: Protektorat
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 9/1
Starting price: 17/2
Result: Win
Return: 6.40
Profit/Loss: +5.40
3.30 Stayers' Hurdle
Selection: Sire Du Berlais
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 14/1
Starting price: 14/1
Result: Fifth
Return: 0.00
Profit/Loss: -1.00
Profit/Loss Thursday: +6.65
Friday
3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup
Selection: L'Homme Presse
Bet: Each way
Advised price: 10/1
Starting price: 16/1
Result: Fourth
Return: 1.50
Profit/Loss +0.50
Profit/Loss Friday: +0.50
Outlay over four days: 8 points
Profit/Loss over four days: +12.16 points
Profit/Loss expressed as percentage of outlay: 152%
A quick word of caution to the wise.
In no way are these figures indicative of the season's performance prior to this meet; in addition, the profit realised in the Champion Chase owed much to the misfortune of 2/9 favourite El Fabiolo at the fifth fence. Normal service will be resumed in due course.
4 comments:
I watched your bets over the 4 days and thought you had a decent Cheltenham. Do you go 1/2 EW and 1 win?
I may be wrong: From what I can see off the cuff from memory, you'd have won a bit more win only via the Betfair S.P.
cheers
Sparkling tipping performance, well done!
Back to the drawing board for me, 4 days racing, 28 races and 0 winners!
TW
Thanks, Sandracer. Good to hear from you - trust all is well.
No, I'm sure you're absolutely right. If I'd bet win only, I'd have won more via Betfair SP.
Generally, with the sort of bets I make, I prefer to play each way most of the time as it reduces those long runs without a return; that's when the doubts start to creep in.
On Thursday both the Turners and the Ryanair were run broadly as I'd envisaged beforehand - from personal experience I can confirm such acts of prescience are very few and far between.
The week just past - the exception rather than the norm. Unfortunately... :)
Thanks, TW, and thanks for providing your notes and ratings throughout the week.
A clean start from today - onwards and upwards!
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