Friday, April 05, 2019

Aintree Grand National 2019

Any review of this year's Grand National (5.15) has to start with last year's winner Tiger Roll.

Small in stature and nothing particular to look at, the horse is already considered something of a legend with a Triumph Hurdle to his name (2014),  a National Hunt Challenge Cup (2017), two Cheltenham Festival cross country chases (2018/19) as well as last year's Grand National in which he beat Pleasant Company a head.

He bids to become the first horse to win back-to-back Nationals since Red Rum pulled off the feat in 1973/74. Since then, 24 have tried to defend their crown and all have come up short.

That said, Tiger Roll looked in better shape than ever at Cheltenham three and a half weeks ago but the weight here (11-5) looks the primary cause for concern. Since Grittar obliged in 1982 (carrying the very same burden) only three horses have won carrying that weight or more: Don't Push It (2010, 11-5); Neptune Collonges (2012; 11-6); Many Clouds (2015; 11-9).

The last outright favourite to come home in front was Hedgehunter in 2005; Comply or Die (2008) and Don't Push It (2010) obliged when sent off as joint favourites.

I've never taken bookmakers' bleating about potential losses particularly seriously but, should the little horse pull it off tomorrow, I suspect the place will erupt and the layers incur significant losses.

With both Outlander and Don Poli now sold out of Gordon Elliott's yard, Tiger Roll faces nine stablemates in the final field of forty.

Those who like to make their own selections may find the BBC's Pinstickers' Guide a useful tool and I've also reproduced regular reader TW's top-rated 30 runners at the foot of this post.

For everyone else, here's my four each-way chances against the field...

1. Vintage Clouds (14/1) Trained by Sue Smith with, no doubt, input from husband Harvey. Third behind Joe Farrell in last season's Scottish National and ran a fine trial to finish second in the Ultima at Cheltenham. Trevor Hemmings' grey is five pounds 'well in' after that run and goes with a nice racing weight of 10-4.

2. Regal Encore (66/1) Inconsistent and not one to trust implicitly but to my mind he represents one of the better longshots if on a going day. Appeared to take to these fences when finishing eighth in 2017. Missed last year's race with injury but made an encouraging return to action in February following a break and subsequently trainer Anthony Honeyball was quietly upbeat about his chance.

3. Joe Farrell (20/1 in places). Closely matched with Vintage Clouds on Scottish National form. Money seen for this one during the week and plenty to like about his chance off just 10-2. Two slight negatives - can hit the odd fence and I can't help but feel the prep has been a little rushed after he finished well beaten behind Carole's Destrier at Newbury at the beginning of March.

4. Walk In The Mill (28/1 in places) Won the Becher Chase over these fences in December with something to spare although the form of that race hasn't worked out particularly well. Found to be lame on the day of the race last year; trained specifically for this event.

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TW's Grand National Ratings: Final Field

RTG Horse
188 JURY DUTY(IRE)
184 ANIBALE FLY(FR)
183 TEA FOR TWO(GB)
181 RAMSES DE TEILLEE(FR)
181 VINTAGE CLOUDS(IRE)
179 CAPTAIN REDBEARD(IRE)
179 SINGLEFARMPAYMENT(GB)
179 STEP BACK(IRE)
179 LAKE VIEW LAD(IRE)
179 RATHVINDEN(IRE)
179 TIGER ROLL(IRE)
178 DON POLI(IRE)
178 GO CONQUER(IRE)
178 VIEUX LION ROUGE(FR)
178 JOE FARRELL(IRE)
177 BLESS THE WINGS(IRE)
177 REGAL ENCORE(IRE)
177 ULTRAGOLD(FR)
177 DOUNIKOS(FR)
177 GENERAL PRINCIPLE(IRE)
176 OUTLANDER(IRE)
176 A TOI PHIL(FR)
176 UP FOR REVIEW(IRE)
176 ROCK THE KASBAH(IRE)
175 MINELLA ROCCO(IRE)
174 MAGIC OF LIGHT(IRE)
174 MONBEG NOTORIOUS(IRE)
174 LIVELOVELAUGH(IRE)
174 VALTOR(FR)
174 WALK IN THE MILL(FR)

Jury Duty [20/1], Captain Redbeard [66/1], Singlefarmpayment [66/1] and General Principle [40/1] highlighted as potential value selections by the system and are on the short list!

Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll and Lake View Lad are the three horses that look to tick the most boxes but priced up accordingly.

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All that remains now is for me to wish you all the very best of luck!

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

The ground continues to dry out.

Going Update on April 6th 2019 at 7:15: National - Good to Soft, Soft at Canal Turn Mildmay and Hurdle - Good to Soft, Good in places

4.5PTS down after the first two days.

Red Indian (RI) reverts to hurdles after making a decent start over the bigger fences before disappointing at the Festival in the Close Brothers Handicap. In 2017 RI ran well in both the Coral Cup and this race off a 3lb higher mark and Olly Murphy's useful conditional Fergus Gregory is a notable jockey booking and provides a 5lb claim. 3 miles on what should be drying ground look ideal and RI might just run a big race at odds of 25/1. Trainer Kelly Morgan only has a small string but has already had a winner at the meeting when Top Wood won the Foxhunters on the opening day.

The drying ground and a return to Aintree should allow Lalor to bounce back to form but I missed the early 5/1 and I'll let him run at current odds of 7/2. I did nick 40/1 about Pink Legend in the finale, the mare is now down to a more realistic 25/1 though perhaps still a bit of value there.


1PT EW Red Indian [25/1 5 plcs 1/5 odds]
0.25PT EW Jury Duty [16/1 5 plcs 1/4 odds]
0.25PT EW General Principle [50/1 6 plcs 1/5 odds]
0.25PT EW Singlefarmpayment [66/1 7 plcs 1/5 odds]
0.25PT EW Captain Redbeard [80/1 5 plcs 1/4 odds]

Let’s hope the race produces a worthy spectacular and the horses and their riders go home safe and sound tonight.

Good luck

TW

Anonymous said...

The Grand National is the free race of the day on Timeform:

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/racecards/aintree/2019-04-06/1715/31/6/randox-health-grand-national-handicap-chase

Grand National field ordered by Timeform Rating

TF RTG TW RTG Horse
182 179 RATHVINDEN(IRE)
181 179 TIGER ROLL(IRE)
180 188 JURY DUTY(IRE)
180 184 ANIBALE FLY(FR)
179+ 176 UP FOR REVIEW(IRE)
179 179 LAKE VIEW LAD(IRE)
178p 181 RAMSES DE TEILLEE(FR)
178 181 VINTAGE CLOUDS(IRE)
178 177 ULTRAGOLD(FR)
177 178 JOE FARRELL(IRE)
177 177 BLESS THE WINGS(IRE)
177? 176 A TOI PHIL(FR)
177? 170 NOBLE ENDEAVOR(IRE)
176 177 GENERAL PRINCIPLE(IRE)
176 174 WALK IN THE MILL(FR)
176 171 ONE FOR ARTHUR(IRE)
175+ 177 DOUNIKOS(FR)
175 179 CAPTAIN REDBEARD(IRE)
175 179 STEP BACK(IRE)
175 179 SINGLEFARMPAYMENT(GB)
175 178 GO CONQUER(IRE)
175 173 PLEASANT COMPANY(IRE)
174+ 178 VIEUX LION ROUGE(FR)
174 174 WARRIORS TALE(GB)
174? 170 FOLSOM BLUE(IRE)
174$ 177 REGAL ENCORE(IRE)
174$ 174 MONBEG NOTORIOUS(IRE)
173+ 183 TEA FOR TWO(GB)
173 176 ROCK THE KASBAH(IRE)
173 174 LIVELOVELAUGH(IRE)
173 173 BALLYOPTIC(IRE)
172+ 174 VALTOR(FR)
169 174 MAGIC OF LIGHT(IRE)
166+ 171 VALSEUR LIDO(FR)
165+ 170 MALA BEACH(IRE)
162$ 172 BLOW BY BLOW(IRE)
? 178 DON POLI(IRE)
? 176 OUTLANDER(IRE)
? 175 MINELLA ROCCO(IRE)
? 161 JUST A PAR(IRE)

TW

Sandracer said...

Joe Farrell for me Geedee. Stayer off of bottom weight has every chance if getting round.

GeeDee said...

Thanks for posting those Timeform figs, TW.

Good luck everyone!

GeeDee said...

And to think we had the bare-faced temerity to even doubt Tiger Roll at all...

The Tiger went into the history books this afternoon becoming the first horse to win back-to-back Nationals since Red Rum. A couple of pecks on landing were the only hints of trouble as Tiger Roll (4/1f) went to the front effortlessly coming to the last to claim the race under a hands and heels ride from Davy Russell.

Scarcely believable. Bookmaker reaction has been mixed but the win is estimated to have cost the industry in the region of £250 million:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/the-grand-national/bookies-claim-250m-loss-on-tiger-rolls-historic-grand-national-victory/374691

After jumping Becher's on the second circuit Magic Of Light (66/1) looked set to become the first mare to come home in front since Nickel Coin obliged in 1951 at odds of 40/1. It wasn't to be but she ran a fine race in defeat with Rathvinden (8/1) third (mistake at Valentine's on final circuit) and selection Walk on The Mill (25/1) fourth.

Anibale Fly (10/1) made a couple of errors on the way round but still came home fifth while 2017 winner One For Arthur (25/1) showed his best form since that victory, making up a lot of ground over the final half mile to claim sixth place.

What of the other selections?

Prominent, Vintage Clouds (11/1) fell at the first with what I call a typical first fence fall in the National - keen to get on with the job in hand and crumpling on landing. Unfortunately, the Willie Mullins trained Up For Review was brought down by the fall of Vintage Clouds and as a result was fatally injured.

Regal Encore (66/1) ran a fine race to finish seventh; unfortunately my wager with Paddy Power only paid on six places. A return of some sort looked likely for much of the final half mile but he just ran out of petrol after the last...

Midfield for much of the second circuit, Joe Farrell (14/1) lost his place from four out and was pulled up before the penultimate flight.

To a 1 point level stakes wager (1 point win, 0.5 points each way) the blog's highlighted selections show a loss of 3 points over the course of this meeting (bets settled at SP).

Anonymous said...

Thanks for sharing your thoughts this week.

Tiger Roll was simply magnificent; other highlights included the thrilling finish to the Stayers Hurdle and Lostintranslation’s stroll in the Mildmay Novice Chase.

Betting wise I helped off-set those bookmaker £250 million losses! 8.5PTS down with none of my selections ever looking like getting seriously involved in the placings. A tremendous amount of hard work for a negative return helps me understand why those 'acquaintances' find it an odd past-time!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for your contributions, TW.

I'm particularly well-acquainted with a lot of hard work yielding negative returns...

Still, when questioned, I usually make a point of telling those acquaintances of mine who are still speaking to me that it beats watching East Enders (BBC) or The World's Busiest Trains Stations (Channel 5).

Big River for the Scottish National?


GeeDee said...

Factual correction:

In the original posting I noted that Tiger Roll would face nine stablemates in the final field of forty.

In actual fact there were ten stablemates in the field - i.e. 11 runners from the Gordon Elliott yard.