Friday, April 19, 2019

A longshot for the Challenger Series Finals meeting at Haydock

Not so long ago Easter Saturday jumps cards left a lot to be desired; tomorrow's Challenger Series Finals meeting at Haydock addresses those concerns but, somehow, there just seems an end-of-term feel in the air; it all looks decidedly competitive on a difficult-looking card.

Layers appear to have taken differing views on the Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (4.20).

Both Tom George runners, Copper West and Air Navigator, are available at 7/1 in places at the time of writing yet the former is quoted 7/2 favourite with bet365 - the track will suit his style of racing and the ground holds no fears - while the latter has previously won here but his preference for a hold-up ride may prove a hindrance.

I'm going to have a bet in the Betway Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (2.05) for which sixteen have been declared.

For those not madly keen on losing money, I should point out I have spent most of this afternoon in a postprandial torpor in the back garden and, as a result, haven't spent an awful lot of time on the race...

Of those at the head of the market, there has been money for Cause Toujours (needs good ground), Hirjan's form is there for all to see - three of the four hurdle wins to date have come on right-handed tracks - while Casa Tall steps back down in trip having failed to stay two and a half miles in the Martin Pipe at the Festival five weeks ago.

Of Evan Williams' two runners, The Gipper needs soft / heavy ground but at a price Peterborough is of interest, possibly to Barry Fry as well.

In the RP Weekender 09-13.01.19 the trainer stated:

'He's a very light-framed horse and struggled physically at first, but he's strengthening up all the time now and starting to show some improvement. He got off the mark on his last run in a handicap hurdle at Exeter [Burrows Park sixth that day] and the form is working out well... We won't overrace him this season, though, as he'll benefit from a relatively light campaign. He has more to offer and will jump a fence in time.' 

It may well prove another one of my multitudinous mistakes but I'm going to forgive him his last effort behind The Twisler at Wincanton (Casa Tall fifth).

And I'm not going to encourage you to read his seven lengths second to Itchy Feet at Southwell literally (Itchy Feet subsequently third in the Supreme at the Festival) - but it reads well enough.

The track here should suit his style of racing and Conor Ring claims three. Earlier today Evan Williams said the horse 'definitely has ability' but 'can blow hot and cold'.

I hope he blows hot tomorrow.

Peterborough is the each-way suggestion - Paddy Power go 22/1 and pay one fifth the odds five places.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

System ratings sorted by % Win Chance

RTG Horse % Win Chance
147 TEASER(GB) 13.6
145 RED TORNADO(FR) 10.48
146 CASA TALL(FR) 8.07
141 CUBSWIN(IRE) 8.04
142 ARTHINGTON(GB) 7.79
142 HIJRAN(IRE) 7.63
142 CAUSE TOUJOURS(FR) 7.55
142 THE GIPPER(IRE) 6.63
143 TIM ROCCO(GER) 6.62
143 PETERBOROUGH(FR) 5.9
142 BHUTAN(IRE) 5.49
141 PERUVIEN BLEU(FR) 5.32
139 CHIEFTAIN'S CHOICE(IRE) 2.67
142 NAYATI(FR) 1.71
138 BEACH BREAK(GB) 1.51
136 MING DYNASTY(FR) 0.98

I struggled with the Haydock card so, as a dual-purpose investor, I’ve headed to Musselburgh for my Saturday bet in the hope that Hochfeld can prove the best of Mark Johnston’s runners, take advantage of Andrew Breslin's 5lb claim and nick the Queen’s Cup.

RTG Horse WC
115 HOCHFELD(IRE) 12.69
113 ULSTER(IRE) 9.61
112 AUSTRIAN SCHOOL(IRE) 9.21
116 EYE OF THE STORM(IRE) 9.05
113 FIRE JET(IRE) 8.38
110 ARTARMON(IRE) 8.01
111 MAKING MIRACLES(GB) 6.67
112 KELLY'S DINO(FR) 6.42
112 PIPES OF PEACE(IRE) 6.37
112 MIRSAALE(GB) 6.31
111 TOR(GB) 6.01
109 LUCKY DEAL(GB) 5.3
107 SIR CHAUVELIN(GB) 3.44
110 MY REWARD(GB) 2.53

Good luck!

TW

GeeDee said...

Thanks for providing your ratings, TW.
Good luck at Musselburgh!

GeeDee said...

Peterborough (20/1) raced from the front accompanied by Teaser (16/1). The selection still held the lead coming to three out but he was quickly swamped and weakened to beat just two home in thirteenth (4/1 favourite Cause Toujours slipped up).

The spoils went to Cubswin (11/1) who just held fast-finishing Arthington (10/1) a head with Peruvian Blue (12/1) third. Nayati (25/1) caught the eye making significant headway in the closing stages to claim a never nearer fourth.