Friday, November 09, 2007

Wincanton tomorrow

The feature race at Wincanton tomorrow is the Badger Ales Trophy run over a distance just short of three miles two furlongs; nine go to post in a competitive event. It looks as though the six year old Abragante will start favourite. He is well in on hurdles form but, when chasing, the fences have occasionally got in his way. Ardaghey is climbing up the weights but is respected while Tom Sayers and Bowleaze look closely matched on recent course form. Irish Wolf's latest win at Fakenham could be suspect as Etoile Russe appeared to have that race in the bag before running out of petrol on his first try over two and three quarter miles. Here I'm going to take a chance with top weight Alderburn on his reappearance. I fancied this horse to win the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown on the final day of last season but he was found lame the day before and didn't run. He is progressive and should give a decent account at around 5/1.

The Elite Hurdle is due off at 2.50. Paul Nicholls speaks highly of the four year old Poquelin who is a headstrong sort; I have a picture in my mind of his disappointing run behind Punjabi at Kempton last February. At Ayr in April the horse was allowed to front run in a small field and that appeared to suit. Five year old Kings Quay won the ultra competitive Summer Hurdle at Market Rasen in July; he looks a value alternative and gets the vote.

Colin Tizzard's Joe Lively beat Ice Tea (winner earlier today at Hexham) seventeen lengths last time out. The 2.20 is run over a shorter distance which may not play to the horse's strengths. Whatever happens here, Joe Lively looks one to keep a close eye on and is a play against Paul Nicholls' Ornais should the latter named be chalked up favourite.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Alderburn drifted alarmingly in the betting to 10/1 at the off; the market proved a reliable guide with the horse weakening four out to finish a well beaten fifth.
15/8 favourite Abragante won this very easily.
A tight finish in the Elite Hurdle with Kings Quay (4/1, having been 11/2 and 6/1 earlier) just holding on from 40/1 shot Chivalry and 13/8 favourite Poquelin.
Colin Tizzard's Joe Lively was sent off 13/8 favourite but was beaten twelve lengths by Nicholls' 2/1 chance Ornais. This trip on this course may have been against Joe Lively but this was still a very impressive performance from Ornais.