Friday, March 12, 2010
The Saturday before the Festival...
I always try to treat the Saturday before the Festival as a time for quiet reflection - the calm before the storm; essentially it's a time to keep your powder dry. Sandown's feature tomorrow is the fiercely competitive Imperial Cup in which 24 are set to face the starter. This year, noticeably, there's not one runner from the Pipe yard. Over the past decade, suprisingly for such a competitive race, the favourite has won on five occasions. During the same time period the winner has carried less than eleven stones on eight occasions while novices have a very good record - four and five years olds have won six renewals. One I have a liking for is Tocca Ferro; I've used this Emma Lavelle quote about her charge in the past... 'We like him... There are certain horses you get that give you that extra special feeling and he would be one of those... I'm dreaming about collecting a big trophy with him.' I wonder if the Imperial Cup is the big trophy Ms Lavelle has been dreaming about... I'll probably take a small each-way interest, watch the race and then turn my attention to next week's jamboree.
Sunday, March 07, 2010
Weekend observations
Big Fella Thanks shot to the top of the Grand National ante-post market following his impressive win at Newbury yesterday; this evening most firms go 10/1 for next month's showpiece but both Stan James and Paddy Power quote 8/1.
Staying with yesterday's meet at Newbury, Tony McCoy and Paddy Brennan fought out the finish to the Veterans' Chase, McCoy taking the spoils on 9/1 shot Eric's Charm; last week the same two jocks were involved in a tight finish to the Racing Post Chase, Brennan coming out on top in that duel aboard Razor Royale. I really thought Brennan had this one in the bag as his mount Knowhere jumped the last marginally better than his rival and looked to take it up on the run to the line. However, after a couple of slaps with the stick, the horse veered out left and then had to be brought back right to avoid the running rail as the line approached; this manoeuvre resulted in the horse losing both momentum and vital ground while McCoy steered the straight course to victory. I was left with the feeling Brennan had been mugged on this occasion...
These days trying to purchase a copy of Raceform Update's Cheltenham Festival Guide from a local newsagent is as difficult as backing a 10/1 winner. I went to pay for mine yesterday and the guy behind the counter commented, 'They've all been after that this morning!' I'm not surprised - his was the only shop in Coventry city centre I could find selling the publication. As I started reading, the first stat to strike me may concern those who think Dunguib is banker material for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle - in the last decade 23 seven-year-olds have tried to win the race but only one has been successful - Captain Cee Bee in 2008. Following on from that, Captain Cee Bee, now a nine-year-old, is 7/2 favourite for the Arkle with most firms - only two horses from that age bracket have won that race since the war.
Two racing programmes to note in the coming week...
Thursday BBC4 21:00 Storyville - Race Horses.
This film follows three horses from Paul Nolan's Wexford stable over a racing year. David Charter (The Times) describes the programme as 'horse heaven'.
Friday Radio4 11:00 Racing Ahead.
Chris Ledgard looks at the problems facing the racing industry as the TV market shrinks and bookmakers look to exploit other avenues.
Betfred have been quick to pick up on last week's story of the unfortunate punter who ate his winning lottery ticket when he realised Ryanair staff couldn't pay him 10,000 euros mid-flight. Spotted in a Fred Done shop window - Goat eats winning football ticket but Fred pays up without a bleat!
The backdrop to this Saturday's Morning Line looked like something you'd come across in a residential care home for the elderly. In that vein, Lesley Graham had something of a 'senior moment' when she referred to that well known jockey Ruby McCoy. Apparently his friend and weighing room colleague Tony Walsh was none too pleased when he heard of Graham's gaffe.
Finally, this is what happens when sports stars stop playing sport and start singing instead... The Cheltenham Charity song is released tomorrow, money raised going to four racing charities. If Petula Clark isn't really your kind of thing and you prefer something a little more raunchy, then take a peek at Rafael Nadal's performance with Shakira in Gypsy. No sign of any trouble with the knees there, Mr Nadal...
Staying with yesterday's meet at Newbury, Tony McCoy and Paddy Brennan fought out the finish to the Veterans' Chase, McCoy taking the spoils on 9/1 shot Eric's Charm; last week the same two jocks were involved in a tight finish to the Racing Post Chase, Brennan coming out on top in that duel aboard Razor Royale. I really thought Brennan had this one in the bag as his mount Knowhere jumped the last marginally better than his rival and looked to take it up on the run to the line. However, after a couple of slaps with the stick, the horse veered out left and then had to be brought back right to avoid the running rail as the line approached; this manoeuvre resulted in the horse losing both momentum and vital ground while McCoy steered the straight course to victory. I was left with the feeling Brennan had been mugged on this occasion...
These days trying to purchase a copy of Raceform Update's Cheltenham Festival Guide from a local newsagent is as difficult as backing a 10/1 winner. I went to pay for mine yesterday and the guy behind the counter commented, 'They've all been after that this morning!' I'm not surprised - his was the only shop in Coventry city centre I could find selling the publication. As I started reading, the first stat to strike me may concern those who think Dunguib is banker material for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle - in the last decade 23 seven-year-olds have tried to win the race but only one has been successful - Captain Cee Bee in 2008. Following on from that, Captain Cee Bee, now a nine-year-old, is 7/2 favourite for the Arkle with most firms - only two horses from that age bracket have won that race since the war.
Two racing programmes to note in the coming week...
Thursday BBC4 21:00 Storyville - Race Horses.
This film follows three horses from Paul Nolan's Wexford stable over a racing year. David Charter (The Times) describes the programme as 'horse heaven'.
Friday Radio4 11:00 Racing Ahead.
Chris Ledgard looks at the problems facing the racing industry as the TV market shrinks and bookmakers look to exploit other avenues.
Betfred have been quick to pick up on last week's story of the unfortunate punter who ate his winning lottery ticket when he realised Ryanair staff couldn't pay him 10,000 euros mid-flight. Spotted in a Fred Done shop window - Goat eats winning football ticket but Fred pays up without a bleat!
The backdrop to this Saturday's Morning Line looked like something you'd come across in a residential care home for the elderly. In that vein, Lesley Graham had something of a 'senior moment' when she referred to that well known jockey Ruby McCoy. Apparently his friend and weighing room colleague Tony Walsh was none too pleased when he heard of Graham's gaffe.
Finally, this is what happens when sports stars stop playing sport and start singing instead... The Cheltenham Charity song is released tomorrow, money raised going to four racing charities. If Petula Clark isn't really your kind of thing and you prefer something a little more raunchy, then take a peek at Rafael Nadal's performance with Shakira in Gypsy. No sign of any trouble with the knees there, Mr Nadal...
Friday, March 05, 2010
Doncaster's Grimthorpe Chase
The penultimate Saturday before Cheltenham and everyone seems to have half an eye on the Festival races... This afternoon trainer Nicky Henderson confirmed that former RSA favourite Punchestowns has a problem with his near-fore - stable companion Long Run now heads that market, priced up at just 2/1 by both totepsort and Ladbrokes. In a separate development Binocular, having been ruled out of the Champion Hurdle a couple of weeks ago with a muscle problem, may now take his chance - his participation depends on a workout next week.
The going at Doncaster tomorrow is described as good, good to soft in places - the first piece of decent ground we've seen for a while.
The feature is the highly-competitive three and a quarter mile Grimthorpe Chase for which fifteen have been declared; many of the field, including former National winner Comply Or Die and Aintree regular Cloudy Lane, will see the race as a trial for this year's four and a half mile marathon in April. Henry Daly's Possol could well start favourite as he's likely to appreciate the better ground but he has his fair share of weight; in addition, favourites have a miserable record in this - no wins in the past seven renewals. Rather than turn out here connections of the progressive Sa Suffit have opted to go to Kelso for the Premier Chase (which could be considered a tip in itself, although I note the gelding hasn't won beyond two and a half miles). Two that would be a danger if returning to form are Charlie Mann's Air Force One and Howard Johnson's Killyglen while Gidam Gidam's victory here last time over four miles would suggest that one needs a real test of stamina - the drying ground may not suit. For me Coe has disappointed once too often in recent weeks but at the bottom end of the handicap former Eider winner Merigo is worth a second look - he finished second in a hurdle race at Warwick three weeks ago but was disqualified as jockey Dougie Costello failed to draw the correct weight. Wogan doesn't have many miles on the clock but former Scottish National winner Iris De Balme will need to build on a reasonable return over hurdles after a long spell on the sidelines. The market has proved a decent guide in the past with the winner starting second, third or fourth favourite on six occasions in the last seven runnings - of the top four Iris De Balme makes most appeal at around 10/1 and looks worth an each-way interest but my money will be on Merigo at odds of 12/1 or bigger.
The going at Doncaster tomorrow is described as good, good to soft in places - the first piece of decent ground we've seen for a while.
The feature is the highly-competitive three and a quarter mile Grimthorpe Chase for which fifteen have been declared; many of the field, including former National winner Comply Or Die and Aintree regular Cloudy Lane, will see the race as a trial for this year's four and a half mile marathon in April. Henry Daly's Possol could well start favourite as he's likely to appreciate the better ground but he has his fair share of weight; in addition, favourites have a miserable record in this - no wins in the past seven renewals. Rather than turn out here connections of the progressive Sa Suffit have opted to go to Kelso for the Premier Chase (which could be considered a tip in itself, although I note the gelding hasn't won beyond two and a half miles). Two that would be a danger if returning to form are Charlie Mann's Air Force One and Howard Johnson's Killyglen while Gidam Gidam's victory here last time over four miles would suggest that one needs a real test of stamina - the drying ground may not suit. For me Coe has disappointed once too often in recent weeks but at the bottom end of the handicap former Eider winner Merigo is worth a second look - he finished second in a hurdle race at Warwick three weeks ago but was disqualified as jockey Dougie Costello failed to draw the correct weight. Wogan doesn't have many miles on the clock but former Scottish National winner Iris De Balme will need to build on a reasonable return over hurdles after a long spell on the sidelines. The market has proved a decent guide in the past with the winner starting second, third or fourth favourite on six occasions in the last seven runnings - of the top four Iris De Balme makes most appeal at around 10/1 and looks worth an each-way interest but my money will be on Merigo at odds of 12/1 or bigger.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Doc Martin, Andy Murray, Choc Thornton, Avram Grant and the man who ate his winning lottery ticket...
There was plenty of action at Fontwell this afternoon... First time blinkers appeared to rekindle Trenchant's appetite as Alan King's charge won the Grade Two National Spirit Hurdle while Martin Clunes, star of Men Behaving Badly and Doc Martin, was hoping Buffalo Stampede, the horse owned by his TV company, would prove a star in the making - unfortunately the beast hadn't read the script and trailed in last of the seven finishers.
The Times reported recently that tennis ace Andy Murray had his first taste of the races and was suitably impressed. Mind you, it was at Dubai's Meydan racecourse and is a world away from a Monday afternoon card at Plumpton in the middle of winter...
A couple of Festival titbits - Robert 'Choc' Thornton appears to have picked up two decent spare rides in Somersby (Arkle) and Twist Magic (Champion Chase). The Weekender reports that Choc was approached about Twist Magic last week - a decision was made after Oh Crick finished a well-beaten fourth in Ascot's Betfair Chase. Oh Crick will now go either for the Champion or the Grand Annual; if connections take the former option, Wayne Hutchinson will ride. I'm sure Choc won't need me to remind him that last year Twist Magic dumped pilot Sam Thomas on the turf right in front of the stands as they went to post. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander worked with a stablemate after racing at Kempton on Saturday and is reportedly in good health and on track for the Gold Cup.
100 days to the World Cup in South Africa and people are starting to talk about football's financial crisis. Following their coverage of the Manchester United v. Aston Villa Carling Cup final this afternoon, the BBC ran a trailer for a Radio 5 Live progamme Business Of Sport which will discuss the issue on Tuesday evening at 20:00. I suspect much of this has been brought about by Portsmouth becoming the first Premier League side to go into administration - manager Avram Grant considers the League's nine point deduction unfair. Now I have every sympathy with this view but such events are a common occurence lower down the footballing hierarchy and have been for some time. Contrast Portsmouth's situation with that of Chester City who were expelled from the Blue Square Premiership on Friday morning following a meeting at Rushden. Chester started the season on -25 points and were still in negative territory when they played their last game; the club is now up for sale for just £1. The men with the money - what have they gone and done to the beautiful game?
Finally, you would be tempted to place a headline 'Man Eats Winning Lottery Ticket' in the same bracket as 'Routemaster Discovered On The Moon' or 'Politician Tells The Truth'. On Friday a passenger travelling from Krakov in Poland to East Midlands Airport with Ryanair won 10,000 euros (roughly £8,930) on a scratchcard. When he was informed there wasn't enough cash on board to pay him immediately, he became agitated and promptly ate the winning ticket, thereby forfeiting any chance of collecting his prize. Understandably, the man wishes to remain anonymous...
The Times reported recently that tennis ace Andy Murray had his first taste of the races and was suitably impressed. Mind you, it was at Dubai's Meydan racecourse and is a world away from a Monday afternoon card at Plumpton in the middle of winter...
A couple of Festival titbits - Robert 'Choc' Thornton appears to have picked up two decent spare rides in Somersby (Arkle) and Twist Magic (Champion Chase). The Weekender reports that Choc was approached about Twist Magic last week - a decision was made after Oh Crick finished a well-beaten fourth in Ascot's Betfair Chase. Oh Crick will now go either for the Champion or the Grand Annual; if connections take the former option, Wayne Hutchinson will ride. I'm sure Choc won't need me to remind him that last year Twist Magic dumped pilot Sam Thomas on the turf right in front of the stands as they went to post. Nigel Twiston-Davies' Imperial Commander worked with a stablemate after racing at Kempton on Saturday and is reportedly in good health and on track for the Gold Cup.
100 days to the World Cup in South Africa and people are starting to talk about football's financial crisis. Following their coverage of the Manchester United v. Aston Villa Carling Cup final this afternoon, the BBC ran a trailer for a Radio 5 Live progamme Business Of Sport which will discuss the issue on Tuesday evening at 20:00. I suspect much of this has been brought about by Portsmouth becoming the first Premier League side to go into administration - manager Avram Grant considers the League's nine point deduction unfair. Now I have every sympathy with this view but such events are a common occurence lower down the footballing hierarchy and have been for some time. Contrast Portsmouth's situation with that of Chester City who were expelled from the Blue Square Premiership on Friday morning following a meeting at Rushden. Chester started the season on -25 points and were still in negative territory when they played their last game; the club is now up for sale for just £1. The men with the money - what have they gone and done to the beautiful game?
Finally, you would be tempted to place a headline 'Man Eats Winning Lottery Ticket' in the same bracket as 'Routemaster Discovered On The Moon' or 'Politician Tells The Truth'. On Friday a passenger travelling from Krakov in Poland to East Midlands Airport with Ryanair won 10,000 euros (roughly £8,930) on a scratchcard. When he was informed there wasn't enough cash on board to pay him immediately, he became agitated and promptly ate the winning ticket, thereby forfeiting any chance of collecting his prize. Understandably, the man wishes to remain anonymous...
Friday, February 26, 2010
Racing Post Chase day at Kempton
I had this surefire winner lined up for the Eider at Newcastle and then the weather went and intervened. Honest.
Fourteen go in tomorrow's feature at Kempton, The Racing Post Chase, which is due off at 3.05. Tanya Stevenson posted a tweet earlier today pointing out that nine of the past ten winners carried over ten stones twelve to victory; that particular stat narrrows the field down to just three - Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat and Ollie Magern. This track suits Madison who will sport blinkers for the first time; the concern is that the Pipe yard has had just one winner form thirty two runners in the past fortnight. Ollie Magern is priced up at 50/1 which leaves previous winner Nacarat, 7/2 favourite at the time of writing, the most likely winner. I'm not particularly tempted at that price. Of the others it's worth noting Ruby Walsh has said he doesn't intend to put up any overweight on Fistral Beach while it will be interesting to see how Atouchbetweenacara runs having left Venetia Williams stable only to return after one disappointing run for Tim Vaughan in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December.
Champion hurdle hope Punjabi faces five opponents in the opener; two of his rivals have been off the track for more than a year while Spider Boy had his thirteenth birthday on January 1st. Nicky Henderson will be pleased to get this run into his charge before the Festival - I, along with plenty of others, shall look for clues as to whether stable jockey Barry Geraghty will opt to ride Punjabi over Zaynar in the Champion Hurdle.
The tissue has The Nightingale at long odds on in the Pendil; I'm tempted to take a chance on Tom George's Othermix at a price. His record doesn't read very well but he's highly regarded at home.
Alan King thinks Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is right out of the top drawer. If he runs in the Adonis tomorrow he'll be long odds on but there's a rumour he picked up a knock earlier today and may be doubtful. On official ratings Mille Chief is only two pounds better than Ultimate so that one should be thereabouts with a three pound pull at the weights. Ultimate can prove a useful yardstick here as he was beaten six lengths in receipt of three pound by Carlito Brigante (7/1 for the Triumph) at Musselburgh the last time.
Finally a quick word for the fabulously-named The Giant Bolster who is declared in the opener at Fontwell on Sunday; he'll be worth a second look. This one did us an each-way favour at 25/1 the last time, beaten six lengths by Nicky Henderson's Peveril. Peveril has gone in again earlier today at Warwick and it's worth noting that The Giant Bolster holds entries in the Neptune, the Coral Cup, the Albert Bartlett and the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival.
Fourteen go in tomorrow's feature at Kempton, The Racing Post Chase, which is due off at 3.05. Tanya Stevenson posted a tweet earlier today pointing out that nine of the past ten winners carried over ten stones twelve to victory; that particular stat narrrows the field down to just three - Madison Du Berlais, Nacarat and Ollie Magern. This track suits Madison who will sport blinkers for the first time; the concern is that the Pipe yard has had just one winner form thirty two runners in the past fortnight. Ollie Magern is priced up at 50/1 which leaves previous winner Nacarat, 7/2 favourite at the time of writing, the most likely winner. I'm not particularly tempted at that price. Of the others it's worth noting Ruby Walsh has said he doesn't intend to put up any overweight on Fistral Beach while it will be interesting to see how Atouchbetweenacara runs having left Venetia Williams stable only to return after one disappointing run for Tim Vaughan in the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham last December.
Champion hurdle hope Punjabi faces five opponents in the opener; two of his rivals have been off the track for more than a year while Spider Boy had his thirteenth birthday on January 1st. Nicky Henderson will be pleased to get this run into his charge before the Festival - I, along with plenty of others, shall look for clues as to whether stable jockey Barry Geraghty will opt to ride Punjabi over Zaynar in the Champion Hurdle.
The tissue has The Nightingale at long odds on in the Pendil; I'm tempted to take a chance on Tom George's Othermix at a price. His record doesn't read very well but he's highly regarded at home.
Alan King thinks Triumph Hurdle favourite Mille Chief is right out of the top drawer. If he runs in the Adonis tomorrow he'll be long odds on but there's a rumour he picked up a knock earlier today and may be doubtful. On official ratings Mille Chief is only two pounds better than Ultimate so that one should be thereabouts with a three pound pull at the weights. Ultimate can prove a useful yardstick here as he was beaten six lengths in receipt of three pound by Carlito Brigante (7/1 for the Triumph) at Musselburgh the last time.
Finally a quick word for the fabulously-named The Giant Bolster who is declared in the opener at Fontwell on Sunday; he'll be worth a second look. This one did us an each-way favour at 25/1 the last time, beaten six lengths by Nicky Henderson's Peveril. Peveril has gone in again earlier today at Warwick and it's worth noting that The Giant Bolster holds entries in the Neptune, the Coral Cup, the Albert Bartlett and the Martin Pipe Hurdle at the Festival.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Sunday snippets
Following Denman's defeat last weekend, champion jockey AP McCoy came in for some unjustified criticism from certain quarters after being unceremoniously dumped on the Newbury turf. Alan Lee penned a piece in Tuesday's Times defending the champ while yesterday Harry Findlay, joint owner of Denman, was at pains to point out to the TV cameras that the bookies currently have Denman priced correctly for next month's showpiece; in this week's Weekender paddock judge Ken Pitterson also observed Denman was carrying condition. Nonetheless the casual observer who watches a bit of TV racing on a Saturday afternoon will be left with the distinct impression that these days it's Ruby Walsh who is riding the big race winners. Two articles in the weekend's papers aim to redress the balance - David Walsh conducts an in depth interview with McCoy in today's Sunday Times while Tony shared the secrets of his success with readers of yesterday's Daily Mail.
The loss of Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle card on Saturday has left Nicky Henderson with a headache as he tries to get another run into Punjabi before the Festival. The trainer is now pinning his hopes on the addition of a two mile hurdle race to Saturday's Kempton card - a decision will be made tomorrow. If that plan falls through, I guess a racecourse gallop will be on the cards for the current champion hurdler who is known to be quite a stuffy horse.
Me Voici (11/10f) looked the part when taking the Victor Ludorum at Haydock yesterday; bookmakers offer 25/1 about the winner for the Triumph but connections indicated they may miss the race. It's worth noting that in this race Venetia Williams' Stars Du Granits opened 100/30 on course, was backed in to 2/1 second favourite but got no further than the second flight. Similarly Monsieur Jourdain (25/1) threw away any chance he had with a terrible jump when in the lead four from home.
Following the death of former jockey and writer Dick Francis last Sunday, I was surprised by the number of people who came up to me and said they hadn't realised he was on board when The Queen Mother's Devon Loch famously 'did the splits' within sight of the winning post in the 1956 Grand National. There have been several tributes to the great man - I favoured this obituary in Monday's Daily Telegraph.
Finally to finish with... The Festival is a little over three weeks away - get yourself in the mood with this behind-the-scenes look at the the making of the Cheltenham Charity Song.
The loss of Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle card on Saturday has left Nicky Henderson with a headache as he tries to get another run into Punjabi before the Festival. The trainer is now pinning his hopes on the addition of a two mile hurdle race to Saturday's Kempton card - a decision will be made tomorrow. If that plan falls through, I guess a racecourse gallop will be on the cards for the current champion hurdler who is known to be quite a stuffy horse.
Me Voici (11/10f) looked the part when taking the Victor Ludorum at Haydock yesterday; bookmakers offer 25/1 about the winner for the Triumph but connections indicated they may miss the race. It's worth noting that in this race Venetia Williams' Stars Du Granits opened 100/30 on course, was backed in to 2/1 second favourite but got no further than the second flight. Similarly Monsieur Jourdain (25/1) threw away any chance he had with a terrible jump when in the lead four from home.
Following the death of former jockey and writer Dick Francis last Sunday, I was surprised by the number of people who came up to me and said they hadn't realised he was on board when The Queen Mother's Devon Loch famously 'did the splits' within sight of the winning post in the 1956 Grand National. There have been several tributes to the great man - I favoured this obituary in Monday's Daily Telegraph.
Finally to finish with... The Festival is a little over three weeks away - get yourself in the mood with this behind-the-scenes look at the the making of the Cheltenham Charity Song.
Friday, February 19, 2010
Saturday digest
With overnight temperatures forecast to go down to minus three, inspections are scheduled for all tomorrow's turf cards; the covers are in place at Ascot but clerk of the course Chris Stickels doesn't envisage any problems.
Nicky Henderson has probably had better weeks with Binocular being scratched from the Champion Hurdle entries on Wednesday and Zaynar being turned over at odds of 1/14 at Kelso on Thursday. Normal service was resumed today with Oscar Whisky's easy victory in the Kylmar Novices' Hurdle - that one now goes for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham next month; William Hill bet 16/1. The trainer will be hoping to start tomorrow's proceedings with a short-priced double courtesy of Finian's Rainbow in the opener and Burton Port in the next, the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.
Only six go in the Betfair Ascot Chase but it's still very competitive. Several of these are closely matched - on official ratings Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is the one to beat; he hasn't raced this far previously and jumping proved his undoing here the last time when one bad mistake handed the initiative to Albertas Run. Herecomesthetruth has a mind of his own and seven pounds to find with the Hobbs horse but Paul Nicholls clearly expects a big run in a race that has been the target for some time. The other one I'd consider is Alan King's Oh Crick. He was beaten by Planet Of Sound in the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut (with the yard stuggling to find form) but made eye-catching progress the last time when staying on into third behind Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler. The extra distance here should suit - the 8/1 on offer this evening from totesport is tempting. However I'm going to side with Herecomesthtruth who is 3/1 with most layers at the moment.
Menorah, currently 8/1 second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, will be short odds to take the 3.45
If the Haydock card gets the green light, the Blue Square Gold Cup will be the highlight run over three and a half miles on ground described as heavy. Several of these met in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas; that day Dream Alliance collected the spoils although he was very nearly reeled in by the fast-finishing Silver By Nature. That one reopposes here on two pounds better terms for threequarters of a length beating - there shouldn't be much in it at the line. The form of Lucinda Rusell's stable (one win from twenty runs in the past fortnight) is a concern. Le Beau Bai is on the small side for a chaser but may well take to this tight track while Coe has a decent record here over jumps - two wins and three placings from six runs. Last year's National winner Mon Mome has his share of weight as you'd expect but he's made steady progress through the season - Venetia Williams' yard is in better form now - at around 12/1 I'll have an each-way bet.
There are some interesting contenders in the 2.30. Bouggler ran well for a long way when beaten by Tidal Bay at Cheltenham the last time but I note that stable jockey Jack Doyle is on Pause And Clause here. Souffleur's fourth behind Mamlook at Ascot looks good given the winner that day ran fourth in the totesport Trophy at Newbury a week ago; that's the first piece of form Souffleur has shown for some time - I'll take an each-way interest at around 10/1 provided eight go to post.
Wincanton is a speed track - Punjabi is worth taking on with Starluck (6/4) in the Kingwell Hurdle (3.50). Henderson is on record as saying that although the champion is straighter than this time last year, the heavy ground will not suit.
Nicky Henderson has probably had better weeks with Binocular being scratched from the Champion Hurdle entries on Wednesday and Zaynar being turned over at odds of 1/14 at Kelso on Thursday. Normal service was resumed today with Oscar Whisky's easy victory in the Kylmar Novices' Hurdle - that one now goes for the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham next month; William Hill bet 16/1. The trainer will be hoping to start tomorrow's proceedings with a short-priced double courtesy of Finian's Rainbow in the opener and Burton Port in the next, the Reynoldstown Novices' Chase.
Only six go in the Betfair Ascot Chase but it's still very competitive. Several of these are closely matched - on official ratings Philip Hobbs' Planet Of Sound is the one to beat; he hasn't raced this far previously and jumping proved his undoing here the last time when one bad mistake handed the initiative to Albertas Run. Herecomesthetruth has a mind of his own and seven pounds to find with the Hobbs horse but Paul Nicholls clearly expects a big run in a race that has been the target for some time. The other one I'd consider is Alan King's Oh Crick. He was beaten by Planet Of Sound in the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut (with the yard stuggling to find form) but made eye-catching progress the last time when staying on into third behind Twist Magic in the Victor Chandler. The extra distance here should suit - the 8/1 on offer this evening from totesport is tempting. However I'm going to side with Herecomesthtruth who is 3/1 with most layers at the moment.
Menorah, currently 8/1 second favourite behind Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, will be short odds to take the 3.45
If the Haydock card gets the green light, the Blue Square Gold Cup will be the highlight run over three and a half miles on ground described as heavy. Several of these met in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas; that day Dream Alliance collected the spoils although he was very nearly reeled in by the fast-finishing Silver By Nature. That one reopposes here on two pounds better terms for threequarters of a length beating - there shouldn't be much in it at the line. The form of Lucinda Rusell's stable (one win from twenty runs in the past fortnight) is a concern. Le Beau Bai is on the small side for a chaser but may well take to this tight track while Coe has a decent record here over jumps - two wins and three placings from six runs. Last year's National winner Mon Mome has his share of weight as you'd expect but he's made steady progress through the season - Venetia Williams' yard is in better form now - at around 12/1 I'll have an each-way bet.
There are some interesting contenders in the 2.30. Bouggler ran well for a long way when beaten by Tidal Bay at Cheltenham the last time but I note that stable jockey Jack Doyle is on Pause And Clause here. Souffleur's fourth behind Mamlook at Ascot looks good given the winner that day ran fourth in the totesport Trophy at Newbury a week ago; that's the first piece of form Souffleur has shown for some time - I'll take an each-way interest at around 10/1 provided eight go to post.
Wincanton is a speed track - Punjabi is worth taking on with Starluck (6/4) in the Kingwell Hurdle (3.50). Henderson is on record as saying that although the champion is straighter than this time last year, the heavy ground will not suit.
Sunday, February 14, 2010
One small Valentine's Day massacre
I was cold-called by a computer software salesman on Friday morning.
Standard salesman practice dictates that, in the first instance, you should engage the potential customer in trivial anodyne conversation, thereby ensuring some form of engagement, before moving on to the business in hand, often referred to as 'the kill'. This salesman's opening gambit was along the lines of 'Doing anything nice for Valentine's Day?' That gave me the best belly laugh I've had this year.
The salesman, let's call him John, even though his real name was Pete, started to swap Valentine's Day notes with me, you know, the sort of you-can't-do-right-for-doing-wrong stuff; of course, I could only empathise. John told me that as he was about to walk out of the house yesterday morning, he heard his partner's voice coming from the bathroom - 'Think on!' she had cried. Just that and nothing else. Think on? What's that supposed to mean? You're immediately transported to that awkward bloke sort of situation from which there's no escape. You want to do the right thing but you're doomed; you may have had your own ideas but all of a sudden you're riddled with doubt - you don't know what to do for the best.
This year, unusually, I was ahead of myself and had managed to procure a reasonable card and thought of a gift all on my own for the first time in over twenty years. So, feeling confident, whilst supping a glass of wine on the Friday evening I told Mrs Tips the salesman story. Next day in town Mrs T spots something, comes up to me and says in that knowing way of hers... 'Think on!'
Needless to say, I did 'a Denman' and messed up, big time. And as if all that wasn't bad enough, Mrs T had told me on Saturday morning that Tricky Trickster was gong to win the Aon 'because it's a good name and I like Ruby Walsh'.
Still, it's a bit too early to totally write off Denman just yet...
Standard salesman practice dictates that, in the first instance, you should engage the potential customer in trivial anodyne conversation, thereby ensuring some form of engagement, before moving on to the business in hand, often referred to as 'the kill'. This salesman's opening gambit was along the lines of 'Doing anything nice for Valentine's Day?' That gave me the best belly laugh I've had this year.
The salesman, let's call him John, even though his real name was Pete, started to swap Valentine's Day notes with me, you know, the sort of you-can't-do-right-for-doing-wrong stuff; of course, I could only empathise. John told me that as he was about to walk out of the house yesterday morning, he heard his partner's voice coming from the bathroom - 'Think on!' she had cried. Just that and nothing else. Think on? What's that supposed to mean? You're immediately transported to that awkward bloke sort of situation from which there's no escape. You want to do the right thing but you're doomed; you may have had your own ideas but all of a sudden you're riddled with doubt - you don't know what to do for the best.
This year, unusually, I was ahead of myself and had managed to procure a reasonable card and thought of a gift all on my own for the first time in over twenty years. So, feeling confident, whilst supping a glass of wine on the Friday evening I told Mrs Tips the salesman story. Next day in town Mrs T spots something, comes up to me and says in that knowing way of hers... 'Think on!'
Needless to say, I did 'a Denman' and messed up, big time. And as if all that wasn't bad enough, Mrs T had told me on Saturday morning that Tricky Trickster was gong to win the Aon 'because it's a good name and I like Ruby Walsh'.
Still, it's a bit too early to totally write off Denman just yet...
Friday, February 12, 2010
Newbury and Warwick
The highlights at Newbury tomorrow include Denman and A P McCoy in the Aon at 2.30 and the current champion chaser Master Minded in the Game Spirit at 3.40. I'm not inclined to oppose Denman who should win to set up the much-anticipated Gold Cup clash with Kauto Star but I wouldn't be in a rush to back Master Minded in this, his first run after an operation on a fractured rib; co-incidentally one of tomorrow's rivals is named Fix The Rib - is that some sort of omen? Earlier in the week Paul Nicholls indicated Master Minded was roughly 80% ready and the vibes coming from the yard are positive enough. Alan King's Voy Por Ustedes is another likely to come on for the run so, for those brave enough to oppose, Fix The Rib from Gary Moore's in-form stable will be of interest. This one has plenty to find on official ratings and has a preference for better going but he likes to set off in front and had a refresher on the all-weather two and a half weeks ago after a fall in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. The market leader has won three of the last eight renewals with the second favourite obliging on the other five occasions. This evening Fix The Rib is priced up at around the 8/1 mark -I'll take a chance.
Only four in the opener but it's far from straightforward. Diamond Harry, 6/1 joint second favourite for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, was impressive at Haydock the last time, looking to have the beating of Alan King's Bensalem when that one fell heavily three out; the race is half a mile further this time. Inchidaly Rock took a soft fall at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but on official ratings looks the one likely to give the favourite most to do. A fascinating contest with Diamond Harry the percentage call but only just - at the prices on offer I won't get involved.
No bet for me in the Totesport Trophy either with twenty four set to face the starter. If you can't resist temptation, the bookmakers offering each-way a quarter the odds the first five places are bet365, Skybet, totesport, Boylesports and Paddy Power, with several of those layers also offering best price guaranteed. Of the three Pipe runners I was impressed with Mamlook at Ascot but he hasn't won off this rating previously so perhaps Ronaldo Des Mottes is the stable's main chance.
Five go in the Kingmaker at Warwick where all eyes will be on Long Run, currently the other joint second favourite for the RSA. A precocious talent, Long Run went into many notebooks when winning the Feltham at Kempton over Christmas despite throwing in some novicey leaps at the obstacles; that race was over three miles but this is over the minimum trip. A school of thought has sprung up over the past week or so that goes something like this - Long Run could win here and then go for the Arkle (instead of the RSA) at the Festival. If you subscribed to that school of thought, then you will have considered taking an interest about the horse in that race (he's currently priced 8/1) as if he wins, that price is bound to contract. Today however trainer Nicky Henderson seems to have poured cold water on the theory by saying his charge is '99% certain' to run in the RSA. Two miles at Warwick takes some jumping with both King Edmund and Take The Breeze front-runners. At the prices on offer I'll chance Take The Breeze.
Finally some interesting contestants in the competitive-looking novices' hurdle at 3.55. Kennel Hill is one to be wary of while Aidan Coleman has said he'd expect a good run from Spit. The Giant Bolster won well at Market Rasen before being somewhat outclassed behind Duke of Lucca at Newbury. He carries a penatly here for his win but has had a break and will handle the ground; I'll consider a small each-way wager at a big price.
Only four in the opener but it's far from straightforward. Diamond Harry, 6/1 joint second favourite for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, was impressive at Haydock the last time, looking to have the beating of Alan King's Bensalem when that one fell heavily three out; the race is half a mile further this time. Inchidaly Rock took a soft fall at Cheltenham a fortnight ago but on official ratings looks the one likely to give the favourite most to do. A fascinating contest with Diamond Harry the percentage call but only just - at the prices on offer I won't get involved.
No bet for me in the Totesport Trophy either with twenty four set to face the starter. If you can't resist temptation, the bookmakers offering each-way a quarter the odds the first five places are bet365, Skybet, totesport, Boylesports and Paddy Power, with several of those layers also offering best price guaranteed. Of the three Pipe runners I was impressed with Mamlook at Ascot but he hasn't won off this rating previously so perhaps Ronaldo Des Mottes is the stable's main chance.
Five go in the Kingmaker at Warwick where all eyes will be on Long Run, currently the other joint second favourite for the RSA. A precocious talent, Long Run went into many notebooks when winning the Feltham at Kempton over Christmas despite throwing in some novicey leaps at the obstacles; that race was over three miles but this is over the minimum trip. A school of thought has sprung up over the past week or so that goes something like this - Long Run could win here and then go for the Arkle (instead of the RSA) at the Festival. If you subscribed to that school of thought, then you will have considered taking an interest about the horse in that race (he's currently priced 8/1) as if he wins, that price is bound to contract. Today however trainer Nicky Henderson seems to have poured cold water on the theory by saying his charge is '99% certain' to run in the RSA. Two miles at Warwick takes some jumping with both King Edmund and Take The Breeze front-runners. At the prices on offer I'll chance Take The Breeze.
Finally some interesting contestants in the competitive-looking novices' hurdle at 3.55. Kennel Hill is one to be wary of while Aidan Coleman has said he'd expect a good run from Spit. The Giant Bolster won well at Market Rasen before being somewhat outclassed behind Duke of Lucca at Newbury. He carries a penatly here for his win but has had a break and will handle the ground; I'll consider a small each-way wager at a big price.
Sunday, February 07, 2010
Thinking about the Festival...
Earlier today at Leopardstown Joncol pipped Cooldine in a thrilling finish to the Irish Hennessy; the winner is now a 7/1 shot with totepsort for the Ryanair Chase. The runner-up delighted Willie Mullins with his effort. Last year's RSA Chase winner has been out of sorts so far this term but the handler thinks his charge will come on for the run - Cooldine is quoted at 14/1 for the Gold Cup with most layers, behind Kauto Star (5/4) and Denman (9/4).
Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.
The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.
Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.
Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.
Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.
RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.
Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.
Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.
World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.
Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.
One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.
Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.
Saturday's Racing Post confirmed that Tony McCoy will ride Denman in the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday and in the Gold Cup itself. Over the coming weeks we can expect plenty of hype as the media build the race into a Kauto Star / Ruby Walsh versus Denman / Tony McCoy stand-off.
The Festival is just over five weeks away. For the past ten years I've attended Champion Chase Day on the Wednesday but this year I haven't purchased my ticket... The thought of the crowds and having nowhere to sit for eight hours show I must be getting old - these days I'm just as happy with a low-key jump meeting at a gaff track. I'm sure I'll come round... There's still a long way to go but, for those interested, here's my current thinking on a selection of the races.
Supreme Novices: I saw Dunguib's exceptional win last year and have been a big fan ever since. Unsurprisingly, I'm not alone. For those looking to oppose, the ante-post favourite's hurdling was far from fluent at Leopardstown this afternoon.
Arkle Chase: A race I try to avoid. Hen Knight's Somersby would be of interest.
Champion Hurdle: As open as I can remember. Still have plenty of respect for Punjabi (overpriced at 14/1) but will wait to see if Barry Geraghty deserts the champion in favour of Zaynar. Medermit (14/1) was unlucky to be beaten a neck by Go Native (6/1) in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle and looks better value than that winner in the market. The form of Alan King's yard has been patchy this year.
RSA Chase: Punchestowns oozes class and deserves his prominent position in the market. I was more perturbed than many by Long Run's jumping at Kempton; a stat that will need to be checked - when was the last time a five-year-old won this race? Diamond Harry has limited chasing experience but Weird Al jumped well at Wetherby yesterday, collecting his third chase win on the bounce.
Champion Chase: Will watch Master Minded's return in the Game Spirit at Newbury with interest. Following Taranis' victory at Cheltenham on Janaury 30th trainer Paul Nicholls indicated that Master Minded had only recently started work again. One of the sayings often repeated around this time of year is you want an animal that has had an uninterrupted preparation for the Festival races. Might be harder to come by this time with the weather playing its part but Master Minded can hardly be said to have had an uninterrupted prep. I think the occasion will get to Twist Magic but like Ferdy Murphy's Kalahari King.
Champion Bumper: A couple of weeks ago Nick Mordin, writing in the Weekender, highlighted that the RP top-rated horse has won the bumper on four occasions in the last five years. Recently Dermot Weld's Elegant Concorde has shot to the top of a market that can be fairly volatile. This time last year Willie Mullins' Sicilian Secret was widely touted but on the day drifted out to 9/1, finishing sixteenth of the twenty four runners.
World Hurdle: Despite the odd quirk, Big Buck's looks bomb-proof. Nearer the time I'll consider Karabak, Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.
Triumph Hurdle: Often a very rough race and not one I'm particularly keen on. Will check out Carlito Brigante.
Gold Cup: Kauto Star for me - with bookies going 14/1 bar two I'll be looking for some fancy prices about an each-way longshot.
One tip for the Festival that is certain to give value for money - make sure you purchase Raceform Update's Festival Preview usually published at the beginning of March.
Finally, I couldn't sign off without a comment on the first weekend's rugby internationals. The England v. Wales game was littered with mistakes, mostly on the Welsh side, but I thought some of the BBC's camera work in that game verged on the atrocious - in particular the spider-cam coverage did nothing but detract from the action on the field.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Saturday fare
Earlier today Alan King went to Bangor with three fancied runners but they were all turned over - Asturienne (2/7f), Devil To Pay (5/6f) and Pennek (9/4).
A couple of Festival fancies take their chance at Sandown tomorrow but they'll make no appeal as betting material - Binocular faces just two opponents in the opener while Punchestowns would be expected to take the 2.35 on the way to the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson's According, currently second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, is likely to start at a cramped price in the 2.05 - he boasts smart form on the Flat but has yet to jump an obstacle in public. Killyglen catches the eye in the Totesport Masters Handicap Chase - the yard is in form but after a break of 70 days you can't help but wonder what the plan is. If I have a bet at Sandown I'll have a small interest in Song Of Songs in the finale. He sometimes finds the fences getting in the way but on right-handed tracks this one has won four times from seven attempts, finishing second, third and fourth on the other three occasions. Consigliere, receiving seven pounds, beat the selection sixteen lengths at Newbury in November and rates a danger, with the jock claiming a handy-looking three pounds.
There are plenty of runners at Doncaster, no doubt tempted by the prospect of better ground; however this evening the going is described as good to soft, soft in places. Hen Knight has chosen to withdraw Arkle Chase fancy Somersby from the Lightning Novices' Chase in which just five go to post. Following a breathing operation Nicky Henderson's giant of a horse Mad Max won well enough on his seasonal debut in the soft ground at Kempton. On official ratings he has it to do giving seven pounds to El Dancer and Woolcombe Folly but I wouldn't be inclined to oppose.
The feature is the Blue Square Handicap Chase at 3.25 - I can't deny I'm a bit concerned to see my Champion Chase fancy, Kalahari King, head the weights for this fifteeen runner handicap with underfoot unlikely to suit. Lennon ran a good race after a long layoff in the Victor Chandler a fortnight ago - he may well bounce on this second run but at 16/1 I'll take a small each-way interest.
In the four miler at four o'clock I'll have a second look at former pointer Knighton Combe who looks to have been trained specifically for this race.
Paddy Brennan has a couple of good rides at Wetherby on Battlecry and Weird Al. The latter, a 12/1 chance for the RSA Chase at the Festival, takes on old adversary Knockara Beau (33/1 for the same race) in the 2.50. On official ratings KB is the one to beat but this step up to three miles one furlong isn't certan to suit. A race to watch with Cheltenham in mind...
A couple of Festival fancies take their chance at Sandown tomorrow but they'll make no appeal as betting material - Binocular faces just two opponents in the opener while Punchestowns would be expected to take the 2.35 on the way to the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Nicky Henderson's According, currently second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, is likely to start at a cramped price in the 2.05 - he boasts smart form on the Flat but has yet to jump an obstacle in public. Killyglen catches the eye in the Totesport Masters Handicap Chase - the yard is in form but after a break of 70 days you can't help but wonder what the plan is. If I have a bet at Sandown I'll have a small interest in Song Of Songs in the finale. He sometimes finds the fences getting in the way but on right-handed tracks this one has won four times from seven attempts, finishing second, third and fourth on the other three occasions. Consigliere, receiving seven pounds, beat the selection sixteen lengths at Newbury in November and rates a danger, with the jock claiming a handy-looking three pounds.
There are plenty of runners at Doncaster, no doubt tempted by the prospect of better ground; however this evening the going is described as good to soft, soft in places. Hen Knight has chosen to withdraw Arkle Chase fancy Somersby from the Lightning Novices' Chase in which just five go to post. Following a breathing operation Nicky Henderson's giant of a horse Mad Max won well enough on his seasonal debut in the soft ground at Kempton. On official ratings he has it to do giving seven pounds to El Dancer and Woolcombe Folly but I wouldn't be inclined to oppose.
The feature is the Blue Square Handicap Chase at 3.25 - I can't deny I'm a bit concerned to see my Champion Chase fancy, Kalahari King, head the weights for this fifteeen runner handicap with underfoot unlikely to suit. Lennon ran a good race after a long layoff in the Victor Chandler a fortnight ago - he may well bounce on this second run but at 16/1 I'll take a small each-way interest.
In the four miler at four o'clock I'll have a second look at former pointer Knighton Combe who looks to have been trained specifically for this race.
Paddy Brennan has a couple of good rides at Wetherby on Battlecry and Weird Al. The latter, a 12/1 chance for the RSA Chase at the Festival, takes on old adversary Knockara Beau (33/1 for the same race) in the 2.50. On official ratings KB is the one to beat but this step up to three miles one furlong isn't certan to suit. A race to watch with Cheltenham in mind...
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Weekend notes
Big Zeb bounced back to form to take the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown earlier today; the trainer feels he has now sorted a problem the horse had with ringbone on his off-fore. This evening Ladbrokes bet 7/1 Colm Murphy's charge for the Champion Chase.
The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.
Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.
Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.
Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.
One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...
Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!
The abandonment of Doncaster yesterday meant that Nicky Henderson's Mad Max missed his intended engagement while Henrietta Knight's Somersby is likely to be re-routed to Doncaster next Saturday after Hereford was called off earlier today. One name missing from the list of runners in Saturday's Cleeve Hurdle was Karabak - Alan King's charge scoped dirty and as a result was kept at home in his box.
Paul Nicholls rightly took the plaudits for bringing Taranis back from a long layoff to win the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday. However, over the past couple of days a number of his more fancied chances have failed to deliver - both Tataniano (2/11f) and Aiteen Thirtythree (7/4f) were turned over at Newbury on Friday while Pistolet Noir (8/15f) and Royal Charm (5/4f) disappointed at the Festival Trials Day.
Well done to fellow blogger Ben Aitken whose book 'Narrowing The Field: Using The Dosage Method to Win at National Hunt Racing' received a favourable review in the Racing Post before Christmas but reached another level with a review in last Sunday's Observer. Perhaps now is the time to invest in a copy with just six short weeks before the Cheltenham Festival.
Tennis correspondent Mrs Tips' verdict on the Australian men's final: Federer awesome, Murray work in progress.
One footballing item - a Lee Dixon comment overheard in today's radio coverage of the Arsenal v. Manchester United game: 'It's hard enough staying on your feet when you're playing against Rooney, but if you're going to fall over, you're giving yourself a mountain to climb.' I'm not certain I know what he was trying to say there...
Finally a recent tweet from @Huntingdonraces suggested we ditch flowers and chocs for Valentine's Day and take a loved one racing instead. I tried that before but Mrs Tips was singularly unimpressed. Here's an alternative suggestion - ditch the loved one for the afternoon and go racing on your own - much more fun!
Friday, January 29, 2010
Festival Trials Day
With forecasters predicting temperatures in the region of minus three tonight, tomorrow's meetings at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter are all subject to 8.00 am inspections; Cheltenham has the frost covers in place so looks to have the best chance of staging racing, the highlight being the Argento Chase at 2.35 with the Cleeve Hurdle (3.40) providing good support.
Only seven go to post for the trappy-looking Argento Chase which is run over a trip just short of three and a quarter miles; the bookmakers think it's between three - Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais and Inchidaly Rock. On official ratings Madison Du Berlais (50s for the Gold Cup) is the one to beat but he appears to give his best performances on flat tracks; having said that, the stable is on fire with six winners from fourteen runners in the past two days. With Denman heading for the Aon Chase at Newbury (rather than running here), Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Inchidaly Rock (5/1 favourite for the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival) of the two Nicholls runners - this one has won over course and distance but has a bit to find with a couple of his opponents. Carruthers (33/1 for the Gold Cup) is a trail-blazer who does it all from the front and is at his best dominating in small fields - at the back of my mind though I can't help recalling his fourth in last year's RSA Chase where, over this course and distance, he made a serious blunder four out that effectively put paid to his chance. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss last year's winner Joe Lively either from Colin Tizzard's in-form yard - for those prepared to take the chance he could prove very good value. Connections of Carruthers have indicated they'll consider the Gold Cup if things work out here and he looks the percentage call so gets the vote - his lack of chasing experience in comparison to the rest of the field is the concern. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win this in the last ten years.
Thirteen go in a most competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle. That tough little course and distance winner Lie Forrit (20/1 for the World Hurdle) makes the journey down from Hawick and is likely to start favourite. Katchit is the top-rated animal in the field but there has to be a concern about him seeing out the trip, a comment that also applies to David Pipe's Mr Thriller. Both Tatenen and Tidal Bay revert to hurdles after experiencing trouble jumping fences while Kennel Hill should be given a wide berth following his display of petulance with a race at his mercy two weeks ago. Course and distance winner Fair Along is respected and looks overpriced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes this evening but Time For Rupert (33/1 for the World Hurdle) is one that I like. I tipped him each way for the Ascot Hurdle but he finished out with the washing - the next time I missed him and he won at 16/1. He's well-regarded by connections - I'll back him each-way provided the odds are big enough.
The market tells us the 3.10 is between Nicky Henderson's General Miller (20/1 for the Neptune at the Festival) and Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm (12/1 for the Neptune) - the word is that General Miller is one of the stable's best novices. You pay your money and takes your choice. If you held a gun to my head, I'd go with Royal Charm but, in search of some value, I'll consider Restless Harry whose second in the Challow at Newbury on heavy going indicates this trip shouldn't be a problem. Stratford-on-Avon trainer Robin Dickin has told the Weekender he has his charge in 'better shape' for this test than for the Challow.
Pistolet Noir (10/1 second favourite for the Triumph at the Festival) looks the one to beat in the opener but he's likely to start odds-on.
Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - several more Cheltenham clues are likely to be uncovered with the Festival little more than six weeks away.
Only seven go to post for the trappy-looking Argento Chase which is run over a trip just short of three and a quarter miles; the bookmakers think it's between three - Carruthers, Madison Du Berlais and Inchidaly Rock. On official ratings Madison Du Berlais (50s for the Gold Cup) is the one to beat but he appears to give his best performances on flat tracks; having said that, the stable is on fire with six winners from fourteen runners in the past two days. With Denman heading for the Aon Chase at Newbury (rather than running here), Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Inchidaly Rock (5/1 favourite for the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival) of the two Nicholls runners - this one has won over course and distance but has a bit to find with a couple of his opponents. Carruthers (33/1 for the Gold Cup) is a trail-blazer who does it all from the front and is at his best dominating in small fields - at the back of my mind though I can't help recalling his fourth in last year's RSA Chase where, over this course and distance, he made a serious blunder four out that effectively put paid to his chance. I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss last year's winner Joe Lively either from Colin Tizzard's in-form yard - for those prepared to take the chance he could prove very good value. Connections of Carruthers have indicated they'll consider the Gold Cup if things work out here and he looks the percentage call so gets the vote - his lack of chasing experience in comparison to the rest of the field is the concern. It's worth noting the favourite has failed to win this in the last ten years.
Thirteen go in a most competitive renewal of the Cleeve Hurdle. That tough little course and distance winner Lie Forrit (20/1 for the World Hurdle) makes the journey down from Hawick and is likely to start favourite. Katchit is the top-rated animal in the field but there has to be a concern about him seeing out the trip, a comment that also applies to David Pipe's Mr Thriller. Both Tatenen and Tidal Bay revert to hurdles after experiencing trouble jumping fences while Kennel Hill should be given a wide berth following his display of petulance with a race at his mercy two weeks ago. Course and distance winner Fair Along is respected and looks overpriced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes this evening but Time For Rupert (33/1 for the World Hurdle) is one that I like. I tipped him each way for the Ascot Hurdle but he finished out with the washing - the next time I missed him and he won at 16/1. He's well-regarded by connections - I'll back him each-way provided the odds are big enough.
The market tells us the 3.10 is between Nicky Henderson's General Miller (20/1 for the Neptune at the Festival) and Paul Nicholls' Royal Charm (12/1 for the Neptune) - the word is that General Miller is one of the stable's best novices. You pay your money and takes your choice. If you held a gun to my head, I'd go with Royal Charm but, in search of some value, I'll consider Restless Harry whose second in the Challow at Newbury on heavy going indicates this trip shouldn't be a problem. Stratford-on-Avon trainer Robin Dickin has told the Weekender he has his charge in 'better shape' for this test than for the Challow.
Pistolet Noir (10/1 second favourite for the Triumph at the Festival) looks the one to beat in the opener but he's likely to start odds-on.
Whatever happens, one thing is for certain - several more Cheltenham clues are likely to be uncovered with the Festival little more than six weeks away.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Festival clues...
The Festival clues season has started in earnest. At Haydock yesterday reigning champion hurdler Punjabi was beaten fair and square by Medermit on ground that was probably soft enough - Alan King's charge, in receipt of four pounds, has now finished in front of Punjabi in his last two races. Beaten a neck by Go Native in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle (after being hampered at the last), Medermit goes straight to the Champion and looks to have a live chance - certainly his price this evening (16/1) makes more appeal than 6/1 Go Native. I wouldn't rush to write off Punjabi either who is also a 16/1 chance (with Skybet) for the showpiece.
Solwhit's victory earlier today in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has seen both Paddy Power and Boylesports install him as their new 3/1 favourite for the Cheltenham equivalent in March. It may be worth noting this quote from trainer Charles Byrnes, "But that's him today - take it or leave it, there's no improvement to come."
Henry de Bromhead's An Cathaoir Mor won the Arkle Chase but isn't certain to make it to Cheltenham. Books have reacted by shortening Captain Cee Bee (beat this winner at Naas)
and Sizing Europe (stablemate of this winner).
Diamond Harry's chase debut at Haydock yesterday went as smooth as you like - Nick Williams' charge is now 5/1 second favourite for the RSA Chase behind Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns.
Nick Mordin's column in this week's Weekender highlights the fact that in the past five years the animal with the highest Racing Post rating has won the Festival bumper on four occasions. So far this season the mare Araucaria has the highest RP rating obtained in a bumper (132) - Nick helpfully points out that at 16/1 she represents decent value. That led me to wonder when was the last time a filly / mare won the race. I was at the track to see Hairy Molly win the 2006 renewal but on checking the formbook was somewhat disconcerted to discover that Hairy Molly was actually a bay gelding... I didn't have to go back too much further - in 2004 two mares fought out the finish with Total Enjoyment beating the Jonjo O'Neill trained Refinement two and a half lengths. The second that day returned a year later to finish fourth in the same race, ridden on that occasion by one K. Fallon.
In an article in Saturday's Guardian, Michael Owen describes racing as his 'main passion outside of football' so he may make it to this year's Festival but he says he'll 'never want to train'. Look out for more Festival clues next Saturday at the Festival Trials Day...
Solwhit's victory earlier today in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has seen both Paddy Power and Boylesports install him as their new 3/1 favourite for the Cheltenham equivalent in March. It may be worth noting this quote from trainer Charles Byrnes, "But that's him today - take it or leave it, there's no improvement to come."
Henry de Bromhead's An Cathaoir Mor won the Arkle Chase but isn't certain to make it to Cheltenham. Books have reacted by shortening Captain Cee Bee (beat this winner at Naas)
and Sizing Europe (stablemate of this winner).
Diamond Harry's chase debut at Haydock yesterday went as smooth as you like - Nick Williams' charge is now 5/1 second favourite for the RSA Chase behind Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns.
Nick Mordin's column in this week's Weekender highlights the fact that in the past five years the animal with the highest Racing Post rating has won the Festival bumper on four occasions. So far this season the mare Araucaria has the highest RP rating obtained in a bumper (132) - Nick helpfully points out that at 16/1 she represents decent value. That led me to wonder when was the last time a filly / mare won the race. I was at the track to see Hairy Molly win the 2006 renewal but on checking the formbook was somewhat disconcerted to discover that Hairy Molly was actually a bay gelding... I didn't have to go back too much further - in 2004 two mares fought out the finish with Total Enjoyment beating the Jonjo O'Neill trained Refinement two and a half lengths. The second that day returned a year later to finish fourth in the same race, ridden on that occasion by one K. Fallon.
In an article in Saturday's Guardian, Michael Owen describes racing as his 'main passion outside of football' so he may make it to this year's Festival but he says he'll 'never want to train'. Look out for more Festival clues next Saturday at the Festival Trials Day...
Friday, January 22, 2010
Ascot and Haydock
Tomorrow's feature at Ascot is the Victor Chandler Chase which is run over two miles one furlong. Twist Magic did this blog a favour when making all to win the Tingle Creek at Sandown in early December; he's the top-rated horse here and this evening is generally priced up the 11/8 favourite. Although blessed with plenty of ability, TM has never been one to trust implicitly; having said that, I've seen a couple of reports this week claiming he's now a reformed character. Trainer Paul Nicholls has expressed some slight reservations about the suitability of this track for his charge. On grounds of value I'm considering opposing him here with Nicky Henderson's Petit Robin - Tony McCoy takes the ride as stable jockey Barry Geraghty is engaged at Haydock. Petit Robin was third behind Master Minded in last year's Queen Mother at Cheltenham and just for a fraction of a second looked as though he might cause an upset as they rounded the home turn; since then he has taken the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton on his seasonal debut and can be expected to come on for that run. Looking through the form I think he may have a slight preference for going left-handed but the stiff track and soft ground should suit, even though all his victories to date have come on flat tracks. Throughout the week Coral has stood apart from other layers offering 11/4 Petit Robin - I'll take a chance at that price.
I wouldn't be inclined to oppose Whiteoak in the mares' hurdle while Francois Doumen tends to do well with the horses he brings over at this time of year. Moneywise would be worth a second look in the opener but Spiv is probably best watched in the 1.30.
Only four go to post in the opener at Haydock where the going is reported as soft, heavy in places on the chase course. Nicky Henderson's Radium is likely to go off odds-on while this represents a set up in class for Peddlers Cross. Donald McCain rates his charge highly - Peddlers Cross gets the vote.
A tentative suggestion in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase is Venetia Williams' Never So Blue (apparently owned by 'The Moody Blues'). This one was well-backed the last time in the London National at Sandown but didn't appear to stay the trip. Earlier today jockey Aidan Coleman pointed out in a guest blog at Racing UK that the horse has already won at Haydock; he rates his mount 'a proper stayer' and it was the Sandown course that didn't suit. I'll consider a small each-way interest at around the 12/1 mark.
Only four in the novices' chase at 2.20 but it looks decidedly tricky; the eventual winner is likely to end up near the head of the market for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham on March 17th. Diamond Harry has won over the course and over the distance but tackles fences for the first time in public - the reports are he's schooled well. Alan King's Bensalem is well-regarded but was held up in the recent cold spell. The chances are that comment will also apply to the horse with the most chasing experience in the field, Knockara Beau. KB is a horse I like but he has to give three pounds to Bensalem and seven to the other two. Peter Bowen's Mumbles Head finished four lengths behind Albert Bartlett winner Weapon's Amnesty in a three mile novice chase at Newcastle the last time - the shorter trip here should help; on official ratings he's bang there with a chance. This may well go to the horse that jumps the best - on the grounds of value I'll chance Knockara Beau.
Current champion hurdler Punjabi will be expected to beat his three opponents (one, Afsoun, from the same stable) on the way to defending his title at Cheltenham in March while the feature here is the Peter Marsh Chase in which Mon Mome heads the weights; that one has the Grand National in April as his target. Cloudy Lane won this last year carrying eleven stones ten and is respected. In a competitive renewal course and distance winner According To Pete will be popular - if I get involved I'll take a small each-way interest in Mr Strachan (12/1 with Paddy Power this evening). This one, from a yard that had a winner at Catterick earlier today, has a nice racing weight but a tendency to put in the odd poor jump here and there. Let's hope the application of first-time cheekpieces help eradicate the errors.
I wouldn't be inclined to oppose Whiteoak in the mares' hurdle while Francois Doumen tends to do well with the horses he brings over at this time of year. Moneywise would be worth a second look in the opener but Spiv is probably best watched in the 1.30.
Only four go to post in the opener at Haydock where the going is reported as soft, heavy in places on the chase course. Nicky Henderson's Radium is likely to go off odds-on while this represents a set up in class for Peddlers Cross. Donald McCain rates his charge highly - Peddlers Cross gets the vote.
A tentative suggestion in the Tim Moloney Handicap Chase is Venetia Williams' Never So Blue (apparently owned by 'The Moody Blues'). This one was well-backed the last time in the London National at Sandown but didn't appear to stay the trip. Earlier today jockey Aidan Coleman pointed out in a guest blog at Racing UK that the horse has already won at Haydock; he rates his mount 'a proper stayer' and it was the Sandown course that didn't suit. I'll consider a small each-way interest at around the 12/1 mark.
Only four in the novices' chase at 2.20 but it looks decidedly tricky; the eventual winner is likely to end up near the head of the market for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham on March 17th. Diamond Harry has won over the course and over the distance but tackles fences for the first time in public - the reports are he's schooled well. Alan King's Bensalem is well-regarded but was held up in the recent cold spell. The chances are that comment will also apply to the horse with the most chasing experience in the field, Knockara Beau. KB is a horse I like but he has to give three pounds to Bensalem and seven to the other two. Peter Bowen's Mumbles Head finished four lengths behind Albert Bartlett winner Weapon's Amnesty in a three mile novice chase at Newcastle the last time - the shorter trip here should help; on official ratings he's bang there with a chance. This may well go to the horse that jumps the best - on the grounds of value I'll chance Knockara Beau.
Current champion hurdler Punjabi will be expected to beat his three opponents (one, Afsoun, from the same stable) on the way to defending his title at Cheltenham in March while the feature here is the Peter Marsh Chase in which Mon Mome heads the weights; that one has the Grand National in April as his target. Cloudy Lane won this last year carrying eleven stones ten and is respected. In a competitive renewal course and distance winner According To Pete will be popular - if I get involved I'll take a small each-way interest in Mr Strachan (12/1 with Paddy Power this evening). This one, from a yard that had a winner at Catterick earlier today, has a nice racing weight but a tendency to put in the odd poor jump here and there. Let's hope the application of first-time cheekpieces help eradicate the errors.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Racing returns
Jim Best's 5/1 shot Anak won the first jump race run for thirteen days when taking the opener at Kempton yesterday. Two and a half hours later Andy Turnell's Micheal Flips took a competitive-looking renewal of the Lanzarote with the minimum of fuss, having eight lengths to spare over 9/2 favourite Duc De Regniere at the line. This evening the winner is quoted a 20/1 shot with William Hill for the Totesport Trophy at Newbury on February 13th.
At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.
Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.
We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?
At Huntingdon I thought Prince Louis put in a reasonable performance finishing second to Celian in the aptly-named Totescoop6 Beats The Freeze Handicap Chase. This was his first run in eleven months and his first for the Charlie Mann yard; he jumped left throughout and will surely be seen to better effect on a left-handed track.
Retirement looked on the cards for Blazing Bailey if he didn't show some spark in the Beginners' Chase at Ffos Las earlier today. In the event he was beaten just a neck by Tony McCoy's mount The Sliotar - I presume the retirement plans are now on hold. McCoy went on to ride a treble at the course. Over the past couple of days the champion jockey has been linked with the ride on Denman in the Gold Cup. Speaking on New Year's Eve, Denman's trainer Paul Nicholls told The Mirror '...I'm not going to announce anything until after the Aon.' This evening Paddy Power offer the following prices about Denman's jockey for the Gold Cup - 2/5 Tony McCoy, 4/1 Sam Thomas, 5/1 Ruby Walsh, 20/1 Christian Williams.
We think we've seen off the last of the white stuff and then the forecasters threaten us with the possibility of more snow to come in the week ahead. It's getting that desperate - if we're hit with another freeze, I'm going to consider investing in a 3D TV. Wednesday's Times informed us England's home Six Nations Rugby Internationals will be screened live in cinemas using the technology - fans will know what it feels like to be tackled by Jonny Wilkinson. I was just wondering if the BBC will be in a position to transmit this year's Grand National in 3D...?
Friday, January 15, 2010
Jumping comes back at Kempton
Tomorrow Kempton looks set to host the first jumps meeting since Plumpton on January 3rd, the highlight being the Lanzarote Hurdle (run over two miles five furlongs these days) at 2.45, while Huntingdon hold an inspection at 8.00 in the morning. The first question to ask after such a protracted break is how have the various trainers managed to cope with the wintry conditions. Paul Nicholls has managed to keep his string ticking over; at the start of the year, as in the past, he inoculated all his charges against equine flu - traditionally this is a quiet time for the stable. Nicky Henderson sent out three winners on Southwell's all-weather bumper card on Wednesday but in this week's Weekender Alan King, whose string were slower out of the blocks than usual in the autumn, concedes that the snow is likely to have set him back again.
With so many unknowns, I intend to play cautiously and will give the form a few days to settle down again. Thirteen go to post in the Lanzarote, with the in-from Nicky Henderson operation looking to hold a strong hand with Tasheba and Duc De Regniere. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides the former but it would be unwise to discount the Duc - Tanya Stevenson (@TheFemale) pointed out on Twitter earlier in the day that the horse has won all his three starts at the track; in addition claimer David Bass takes off a handy-looking seven pounds. In my book one who could have more to come is Aachen - I was prepared to consider an each-way dabble at around 12/1 but he's priced up at 8s this evening and has been off the track a while so I'll watch his progress but won't get involved.
The 12.55 sees the eagerly-awaited chasing debut of Nicky Henderson's Mad Max. Eighth behind Mikael D'Haguenet in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, Mad Max is a giant of a horse who should certainly benefit from jumping a fence. Having said that, he's had a couple of breathing operations since that run - I'm never keen on taking short odds about a horse who has had such an operation and returns to race on soft / heavy going. There's only five in the field and I know I'm going out on a limb but I think there's more to come from Nick Gifford's Dee Ee Williams - I'll consider opposing if tonight's tissue price of 5/1 is available on the day.
With an official rating of 144 Kennel Hill sets the standard in the novices' hurdle at 1.30 but it's interesting to see the Nicholls yard reoppose with The Minack who was beaten fifteen lengths by KH over three furlongs further in Tell Massini's race at Cheltenham. I tipped The Minack the last time; at the likely prices on offer I may give him another chance as he lost any hope with a howler three out. Trainer Nick Gifford had a good word for Ashleys Lad.
Another Twitter titbit from @TheFemale points out that in the finale only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years. The Weekender reports that Nick Gifford has kept his string going in the snow - provided the stable's runners have run respectably beforehand I'll consider taking a chance with Tullamore Dew.
Those looking for a slightly different approach after the cold spell may want to note the following trainers whose horses ran well enough on the all-weather at Southwell earlier in the week: N. J. Henderson, Mrs L. Wadham (included 33/1 winner), C. Mann, C. T. Pogson, J. Howard Johnson, G.L. Moore, D.E. Cantillon, I.Williams and N.T. Chance. Good luck!
With so many unknowns, I intend to play cautiously and will give the form a few days to settle down again. Thirteen go to post in the Lanzarote, with the in-from Nicky Henderson operation looking to hold a strong hand with Tasheba and Duc De Regniere. Stable jockey Barry Geraghty rides the former but it would be unwise to discount the Duc - Tanya Stevenson (@TheFemale) pointed out on Twitter earlier in the day that the horse has won all his three starts at the track; in addition claimer David Bass takes off a handy-looking seven pounds. In my book one who could have more to come is Aachen - I was prepared to consider an each-way dabble at around 12/1 but he's priced up at 8s this evening and has been off the track a while so I'll watch his progress but won't get involved.
The 12.55 sees the eagerly-awaited chasing debut of Nicky Henderson's Mad Max. Eighth behind Mikael D'Haguenet in the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time out, Mad Max is a giant of a horse who should certainly benefit from jumping a fence. Having said that, he's had a couple of breathing operations since that run - I'm never keen on taking short odds about a horse who has had such an operation and returns to race on soft / heavy going. There's only five in the field and I know I'm going out on a limb but I think there's more to come from Nick Gifford's Dee Ee Williams - I'll consider opposing if tonight's tissue price of 5/1 is available on the day.
With an official rating of 144 Kennel Hill sets the standard in the novices' hurdle at 1.30 but it's interesting to see the Nicholls yard reoppose with The Minack who was beaten fifteen lengths by KH over three furlongs further in Tell Massini's race at Cheltenham. I tipped The Minack the last time; at the likely prices on offer I may give him another chance as he lost any hope with a howler three out. Trainer Nick Gifford had a good word for Ashleys Lad.
Another Twitter titbit from @TheFemale points out that in the finale only one favourite has obliged in the last ten years. The Weekender reports that Nick Gifford has kept his string going in the snow - provided the stable's runners have run respectably beforehand I'll consider taking a chance with Tullamore Dew.
Those looking for a slightly different approach after the cold spell may want to note the following trainers whose horses ran well enough on the all-weather at Southwell earlier in the week: N. J. Henderson, Mrs L. Wadham (included 33/1 winner), C. Mann, C. T. Pogson, J. Howard Johnson, G.L. Moore, D.E. Cantillon, I.Williams and N.T. Chance. Good luck!
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Figures in the snow
The big freeze has ensured a paucity of form figures for jumping fans to study this week. Here are some alternative figures that have come to my attention recently...
William Hill reported that on blank racing days they were seeing a ten-fold increase in the number of bets taken on virtual racing. Julian Muscat's piece in Wednesday's Times quotes David Hood, William Hill PR director: "In the last week alone we have taken over 300,000 individual bets."
Tom Scudamore, who missed a double at Plumpton last Sunday as the result of a suspension, informed readers of the same newspaper on Friday he hadn't earned a penny since December 29th and was roughly £10,000 out of pocket. Riding fees are reported to have risen recently by 3% but, of course, if the weather doesn't relent, an additional 3% of nothing equates to absolutely nothing.
Racing for Change launched a ten-point plan with the aim of modernising the sport; a tweet to me from @Mulldog quite rightly intimated it's likely to take a lot more than ten points. The recommendation that appears to have received most press coverage from the RfC report is the proposal that in spring British racecourses will look to trial decimal odds in an attempt to attract younger people to the races. Apparently 11/10ths of the younger generation just don't get fractions.
On Friday Alan King's Karabak was well-backed for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. He's now quoted at 6s and 7s (from 10s).
Finally I'm informed the highlight of Bonhams Spring sale is 'a highly important racing painting by Munnings'. 'The Start, Newmarket' is scheduled to go under the hammer on Wednesday 17th March with the price estimate quoted as £500,000 - £700,000. Excuse me, old boy, doesn't that clash with Champion Chase day?
William Hill reported that on blank racing days they were seeing a ten-fold increase in the number of bets taken on virtual racing. Julian Muscat's piece in Wednesday's Times quotes David Hood, William Hill PR director: "In the last week alone we have taken over 300,000 individual bets."
Tom Scudamore, who missed a double at Plumpton last Sunday as the result of a suspension, informed readers of the same newspaper on Friday he hadn't earned a penny since December 29th and was roughly £10,000 out of pocket. Riding fees are reported to have risen recently by 3% but, of course, if the weather doesn't relent, an additional 3% of nothing equates to absolutely nothing.
Racing for Change launched a ten-point plan with the aim of modernising the sport; a tweet to me from @Mulldog quite rightly intimated it's likely to take a lot more than ten points. The recommendation that appears to have received most press coverage from the RfC report is the proposal that in spring British racecourses will look to trial decimal odds in an attempt to attract younger people to the races. Apparently 11/10ths of the younger generation just don't get fractions.
On Friday Alan King's Karabak was well-backed for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. He's now quoted at 6s and 7s (from 10s).
Finally I'm informed the highlight of Bonhams Spring sale is 'a highly important racing painting by Munnings'. 'The Start, Newmarket' is scheduled to go under the hammer on Wednesday 17th March with the price estimate quoted as £500,000 - £700,000. Excuse me, old boy, doesn't that clash with Champion Chase day?
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Guest blogger - ex-boss goes to Chepstow's Welsh National meet
A couple of weeks ago an unusual thing happened. My former boss, apparently enjoying a blissful retirement now (although I only learned of that a couple of weeks ago) contacted me straight out of the blue, asking for a view on the Welsh National at Chepstow as he happened to be going to that meeting over the Christmas break. Immediately I was presented with a dilemma - should I go for 'payback' and deliberately tip Mr. N a couple of duff horses (Dream Alliance looked to have plenty going for it - form figs of PUPP, off the track for 18 months and then second place in a Class 3 handicap hurdle seven weeks previously) or should I do the honourable thing, put in the homework and then watch the selections run in the manner I thought the duff ones would. After considerable deliberation I took the latter option and, at the same time, secured Mr. N's agreement that he would write a report on his day at the Chepstow races.
For the record, I've edited the original in places, leaving in just one or two disparaging remarks about the blog, just to give the piece that air of authenticity.
Here's the report...
I have been anticipating for several months now the brother’s invitation to go to the Welsh Grand National meeting at Chepstow less than two National trips from his home in South Wales, so it was good to hear that racing was actually on just seconds after we shelled out our cash to join the large and enthusiastic crowd. Armed with a good commentary on the likely National field from PG Tips, and a good check on the rest of the runners that morning, hopes were high for a good day.
Sang Bleu looked a Nicholls/McCoy certainty in the next race but the odds prohibitive so I intended to pass until I was told I had to have a go so I went with the favourite on the nose, where else? The wife meanwhile, unable to bet her preferred tip the non runner Hector’s House (don’t ask), switched at the last minute to Me Voici which of course beat mine in a driving finish after McCoy had somehow managed to hit the last hurdle probably burdened with my expectations.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350836,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 4
Astonishingly, or inevitably depending on who you are, exactly the same thing happened in the next race. The wife, getting the hang of it now, beat me to the McCoy mount so I looked for value lower down the pecking order and opted for Volador which had good form and had raced here before. It proved my only drag of the day at 9-2 and my third 2nd place whilst Mrs N cleaned up again with Be There in Five.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350837,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 5
And finally to put the tin hat on it the brother showing just how banking works put a few bob of his previous winnings on Crannagmore Boy which romped home for his second win of the day. Mine is still running I think. Why did he pick this one? Because it was running in gold, the colour that Wolves play in and his mate supports Wolves!!! From now on I am choosing horses by the colour of the jockeys socks - I can’t do much worse.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350838,00.html
Final Score
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 6
Despite this and the bitter cold, a brilliant day out at a very nice friendly course which even offered decent real ale. There was a fine tribute to the Welsh Guards who turned out to loud applause and Land Of My Fathers was sung beautifully by Sara Kempe before the big race. Shame about the losses. So what’s running tomorrow….
Footnote - I'm thinking of offering Mrs N a month's trial -PG.
For the record, I've edited the original in places, leaving in just one or two disparaging remarks about the blog, just to give the piece that air of authenticity.
Here's the report...
I have been anticipating for several months now the brother’s invitation to go to the Welsh Grand National meeting at Chepstow less than two National trips from his home in South Wales, so it was good to hear that racing was actually on just seconds after we shelled out our cash to join the large and enthusiastic crowd. Armed with a good commentary on the likely National field from PG Tips, and a good check on the rest of the runners that morning, hopes were high for a good day.
As the only regular, if now lapsed, punter in the group comprising one sister one daughter and the one and only Mrs N I dutifully explained how to read form, what C and D meant, the significance of the going and that the usual suspects such as AP McCoy and P Nicholls were unlikely to go away empty-handed. Against my better judgement I was persuaded to join in the spirit of the day and bet on the first race which I had studiously ignored as it was a six horse beginners race. Swiftly spotting the value I opted for Starburst Diamond and, repaying my faith, he was in just the right position coming to the turn but forgot about the impending jump. There were only two fallers at the entire meeting - I had picked one of them. Now I know why in the past I stuck to the Flat. My horses need all the help they can get; putting obstacles in the way doesn’t help. To add insult to injury the sister backed the winner, Mark the Book, based on the sensible reasoning that she has a friend called Mark!
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350833,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 1
Much better field for the second race which I had studied and concluded that Buck the Legend was as good a chance as any and at a reasonable price. Daughter meanwhile opted for Magic Sky persuaded not so much by the tempting odds and promising form but because the jockey’s name was the same as one of her best friends. She soon learned that form and experience are better guides than the jockey’s name as Magic Sky trailed the field for most of the race whilst Buck the Legend was handily placed throughout. In the long and punishing finishing straight I was just explaining to the daughter that Mr Tips had suggested that the course was too tough for any horse to come from behind to win, as Magic Sky found a sprinter's turn of foot and ran away with the race. A veteran of two Royal Ascots including one where she actually watched some racing, this was her first winner and a nice lucrative one at that.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350834,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 2
The brother (whom we whisper quietly is a banker) was enjoying his role of taking all of our money and investing it on our behalf in a range of sure fire winners offering enticing returns so it was no surprise that on the next race we all lost our investment whilst he backed an 8-1 winner Money Order not because it was a crafty JP McManus raider but because it had money in the name!
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350835,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 3
In the big race I referred to Mr Tips’s commentary and followed his advice looking for a good e/w bet and opted for one of his list of potentials, Kornati Kid, but also slipped a little bet on Silver by Nature based on my own research. The Kid was prominent for a long time raising hope and tracked Silver by Nature for most of the time. By the turn for the straight the Kid was shot but Silver by Nature had moved up to dispute the lead and had plenty in hand looking nailed on to repay my faith. All the grey had to do was clear the last which of course it hit, lost momentum and the race. A large family loss all round.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,347307,00.html
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350833,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 1
Much better field for the second race which I had studied and concluded that Buck the Legend was as good a chance as any and at a reasonable price. Daughter meanwhile opted for Magic Sky persuaded not so much by the tempting odds and promising form but because the jockey’s name was the same as one of her best friends. She soon learned that form and experience are better guides than the jockey’s name as Magic Sky trailed the field for most of the race whilst Buck the Legend was handily placed throughout. In the long and punishing finishing straight I was just explaining to the daughter that Mr Tips had suggested that the course was too tough for any horse to come from behind to win, as Magic Sky found a sprinter's turn of foot and ran away with the race. A veteran of two Royal Ascots including one where she actually watched some racing, this was her first winner and a nice lucrative one at that.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350834,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 2
The brother (whom we whisper quietly is a banker) was enjoying his role of taking all of our money and investing it on our behalf in a range of sure fire winners offering enticing returns so it was no surprise that on the next race we all lost our investment whilst he backed an 8-1 winner Money Order not because it was a crafty JP McManus raider but because it had money in the name!
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350835,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 3
In the big race I referred to Mr Tips’s commentary and followed his advice looking for a good e/w bet and opted for one of his list of potentials, Kornati Kid, but also slipped a little bet on Silver by Nature based on my own research. The Kid was prominent for a long time raising hope and tracked Silver by Nature for most of the time. By the turn for the straight the Kid was shot but Silver by Nature had moved up to dispute the lead and had plenty in hand looking nailed on to repay my faith. All the grey had to do was clear the last which of course it hit, lost momentum and the race. A large family loss all round.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,347307,00.html
Sang Bleu looked a Nicholls/McCoy certainty in the next race but the odds prohibitive so I intended to pass until I was told I had to have a go so I went with the favourite on the nose, where else? The wife meanwhile, unable to bet her preferred tip the non runner Hector’s House (don’t ask), switched at the last minute to Me Voici which of course beat mine in a driving finish after McCoy had somehow managed to hit the last hurdle probably burdened with my expectations.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350836,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 4
Astonishingly, or inevitably depending on who you are, exactly the same thing happened in the next race. The wife, getting the hang of it now, beat me to the McCoy mount so I looked for value lower down the pecking order and opted for Volador which had good form and had raced here before. It proved my only drag of the day at 9-2 and my third 2nd place whilst Mrs N cleaned up again with Be There in Five.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350837,00.html
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 5
And finally to put the tin hat on it the brother showing just how banking works put a few bob of his previous winnings on Crannagmore Boy which romped home for his second win of the day. Mine is still running I think. Why did he pick this one? Because it was running in gold, the colour that Wolves play in and his mate supports Wolves!!! From now on I am choosing horses by the colour of the jockeys socks - I can’t do much worse.
Full result: http://horses.sportinglife.com/Arch_Race/0,12658,350838,00.html
Final Score
Form and Experience 0 Random Selections 6
Despite this and the bitter cold, a brilliant day out at a very nice friendly course which even offered decent real ale. There was a fine tribute to the Welsh Guards who turned out to loud applause and Land Of My Fathers was sung beautifully by Sara Kempe before the big race. Shame about the losses. So what’s running tomorrow….
Footnote - I'm thinking of offering Mrs N a month's trial -PG.
Friday, January 01, 2010
Sandown's Tolworth meeting
Cheltenham went ahead today after surviving three (?) inspections. Tomorrow's Tolworth meeting at Sandown has to survive a 7.30 am inspection - 95% of the course isn't covered so it must be odds against racing. I've been hit by a particularly nasty dose of the manflu with the result that I'm bailing out here and now and going straight to bed (with a bottle of Johnnie Walker Black Label). I know this is the first post of the decade and I realise, dear reader, this lays me open to plenty of disrespect on your part - did I hear the term 'wuss' muttered in the background? Quite frankly, I have to say, I'm beyond caring...
Normal service to be resumed as soon as possible....
Normal service to be resumed as soon as possible....
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