Twelve have been declared for tomorrow's Scottish Champion Chase run at Musselburgh over a trip of two miles four and a half furlongs.
In a week when several meetings have been abandoned on account of waterlogging, officials at the Scottish track have indicated they have watered to maintain the current going, described as good to soft.
Favourite The Kalooki Kid looked good in a Doncaster novice chase last time but he faces several battle-hardened performers here and is short enough in the market with just two starts over fences to his name.
The grey Marble Sands won a novice chase over course and distance this time last year and, after two appetisers on the all-weather in the autumn, has shown consistent form over fences this term - third behind Frero Banbou in the Rehearsal at Newcastle and second behind Springwell Bay at Cheltenham on New Year's Day.
In the past Saint Segal has been known to jump quite low over his fences; he seems more suited by this trip these days.
On his penultimate start he appeared to lose his chance at the start, eventually finishing a ten length fifth behind Le Patron at Newbury (Sir Psycho sixth).
Next time out, again at Newbury, he beat Beau Balko 11 lengths and Walking On Air 34 lengths - the latter-named appeared to have the Great Yorkshire Chase within his grasp when coming to grief at the final fence at Doncaster on Saturday.
Just over 12 months ago Fidelio Vallis beat Corrigeen Rock over course and distance in the Auld Reekie Handicap Chase.
He hasn't shown the same form on two starts since, with the result Harry Dereham's charge is back on that last winning mark of 140; connections fit cheekpieces for the first time here.
Stablemates Sir Psycho and Kansas City Star are also in the line-up.
The former fell on his only chase start for Paul Nicholls but won his first chase start for Dereham - over two miles three furlongs; he has yet to win over further but has been the subject of market support during the day.
The latter didn't jump well when pulled up behind Terresita at Ascot a fortnight ago.
This feels like a big weekend for the Dereham yard after Storm Bert washed his gallop away at the end of November; 15 have been declared in total across four cards, including Queens Gamble (Rachael Blackmore up) in the Listed mares' handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday (12.40).
Minella Drama won the 2023 renewal of the Auld Reekie and proved he's still a force to be reckoned with by making all to beat Hitman, Ahoy Senor, Stage Star and Unexpected Party in the Old Roan at Aintree in the autumn.
Lucinda Russell saddles two, Corrigeen Rock and Traprain Law.
Corrigeen Rcok won this race last year off 139 and looks feasibly handicapped this time off 142, with Alan Doyle claiming five.
The gelding doesn't come into the race in the same form though - he didn't jump well behind Boomslang in this year's renewal of the Auld Reekie 31 days ago.
Traprain Law's famous green and yellow silks belong to owner / breeder Raymond Anderson Green.
On his first try at two and a half miles Traprain Law finished behind Marble Sands at Carlisle at the beginning of November; on revised terms the gelding is entitled to finish upsides Marble Sands provided, of course, he sees out the trip.
The Big Chap comes over from Ireland and on his first run in this country goes off a mark one pound higher than his Irish mark. To date Paul Flynn's charge has not won beyond two miles three.
On his last run for Noel Meade Lieutenant Command finished down the field in the 2023 Galway Plate off 141.
After a break of of 479 days the 11-year-old was pulled up behind Trelawne on his first run for Tim Reed and then finished second behind Grandads Cottage at odds of 125/1 at Carlisle in December.
All of which leads on to Arizona Cardinal.
Last April Stuart Edmunds' charge won the Topham at Aintree (2m 5f) on soft ground off 137.
On his first run this term he was pulled up behind Neon Moon in the Native River at Chepstow and promptly underwent wind surgery.
On his next start in the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham he finished eighth, beaten just over 16 lengths, outpaced from two out over a trip just short of three miles six furlongs.
Now, he was due to run in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster last weekend but was withdrawn on account of the quick ground.
There was some talk of a Grand National plan but, during the week, after his mare Marsh Wren had been scratched from the National entries, the trainer confirmed that Arizona Cardinal would once again be aimed at the Topham:
"He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham last time. That was a test as to whether he might be worth considering for the Grand National but his stamina gave way and it told us all roads lead back to the Topham."
Arizona Cardinal held two entries for the weekend - this race (for which Ciaran Gethings was jocked up midweek) and the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase over three miles at Sandown.
I thought connections would opt for Sandown - the horse has won over three miles previously and appreciates soft ground but, not for the first time, I was mistaken.
While drying ground over this shorter trip at Musselburgh wouldn't be ideal, if the plan has been a repeat bid for the Topham since mid December (i.e. after the cross country race), then I'm reasoning he'll need to be reasonably competitive tomorrow.
The worry would be that, in a race with plenty of early pace, he might struggle to hold a position and become detached.
Layers are offering 20/1 (four places) and I've succumbed to temptation.
Arizona Cardinal is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 generally at the time of writing, with several layers paying four places.
9 comments:
bet365 Scottish Champion Chase
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Sir Psycho [IRE], 164, 8/1
Marble Sands [FR], 164, 7/1
The Kalooki Kid [GB], 163, 11/2
Traprain Law [FR], 162, 10/1
Kansas City Star [IRE], 162, 12/1
Minella Drama [IRE], 160, 14/1
Fidelio Vallis [FR], 159, 16/1
Lieutenant Command [FR], 159, 20/1
Saint Segal [FR], 158, 9/1
The Big Chap [IRE], 156, 20/1
Arizona Cardinal [GB], 155, 25/1
Corrigeen Rock [IRE], 154, 25/1
The system, like the market, has been quite dismissive of Arizona Cardinal’s chance in this. Ignore his last two runs, easy enough to do, and he still looks a progressive chaser but he would not want to go up to much in the weights if the aim is to win back to back Topham’s so is this really a target?
The system sees Marble Sands as the most likely winner but no juice in his odds, there could be value in Sir Psycho given his 8/1 tissue price but not enough to tempt me in. A good turnout and interesting race but one I’m happy to watch from the sidelines.
Good luck!
TW
Fair comment re: handicap mark and this as a target, TW.
If Arizona wins tomorrow I might wish I'd agreed. #but: The Big Chap looks over the odds everywhere I look, so I've had the 50's on the Exch .
They ran him 7 times in 3 months, in good races, and pulled him up at the 1st sign of trouble in the 7th run, to which the racereader at TF called it "checked out tamely" - really?.
After a 5 week break, he must be as fit as a Mo Farah. Then they bring him here?
I'm suspicious, so tapped out early and bottled it before Segal goes all in on him and I end up watching him win at 8's with nothing on him at those kind of odds ;)
Felt sure I had some notes on The Big Chap, Sandracer, but looking yesterday I couldn't find anything anywhere. Certainly hasn't travelled over just to make up the numbers.
Sandracer,
Quick update. Just found that note I was looking for about The Big Chap. It's a phone number for the plumber we use... ;)
Dear Mr Geedee, that's a borderline offence under the 2023 online safety act.
Nightmare start to the race for all concerned. Never got in it. Should have left well alone like the man said.
Indeed, Sandracer. Just blowing on the tips of my burnt fingers...
My worst fears realised.
As the leaders went lickety-split from the off, Arizona Cardinal (22/1) made a mistake at the first and then raced mid division. He started to struggle as they raced down the back and was tailed off they'd entered the home straight; he eventually finished tenth of the twelve, beaten just under 40 lengths.
Saint Segal (7/1) jumped well at the head of affairs and went clear with The Kalooki Kid (2/1f) from four out. The favourite may have lacked experience over fences but he could be called the winner some way out, eventually beating Saint Segal two and threequarters lengths with Traprain Law (14/1) securing third spot ahead of stablemate Corrigeen Rock (14/1) in fourth.
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