I still can't quite fathom how Collectors Item was allowed to go off at 14/1 for the Somerset National at Wincanton on Thursday; on his previous start Jonjo O'Neill's charge had shown his best form this term when second behind Mr Vango in the London National at Sandown, beaten one and a half lengths at odds of 25/1.
Mr Vango goes in the Peter Marsh at Haydock tomorrow, provided the Lancashire track passes its morning inspection at 8.30 - temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing overnight.
Of the eight declared for the Peter Marsh, in my book Trelawne, Imagine, Richmond Lake and Bill Baxter don't look guaranteed to stay the trip.
The going at Ascot is described as good to soft, good in places.
Fourteen have been declared for the BetMGM Holloway's Handicap Hurdle at 2.50.
Between them Nicky Henderson and Gary & Josh Moore are responsible for three entries apiece, with Nigel Twiston-Davies and Fergal O'Brien each saddling two runners.
Favourite Bo Zenith moved from Gary & Josh Moore's yard to Nicky Henderson's in October and ran an eye-catching third behind Mirabad at Cheltenham five weeks ago on his first run for 610 days.
That was the gelding's first run in a handicap and he has been raised three pounds for his trouble; the step up in trip should suit but the 'bounce' factor after such a long layoff would be a concern.
Stablemate Doddiethegreat hasn't been in top form so far this term but a mark of 129 could look lenient after the race.
Altobelli does not look the easiest ride.
He ran no race whatsoever in the Betfair Hurdle in February. Five weeks ago he went off 13/8 favourite at Doncaster where he looked certain to finish out with the washing before staying on to eventually finish one length adrift of winner Jungle Jack. Connections try first-time cheekpieces.
Aston Martini had Jungle Jack in arrears on her first run in a handicap at Bangor before finding herself outpaced over two miles in the Gerry Feilden next time. The step back up in trip looks a plus; stable jockey Nico De Boinville is aboard Doddiethegreat.
Philip Hobbs & Johnson White have their team in excellent order - 5 wins from 11 runs in past fortnight - but to date Georgi Girl's best form has been seen in mares' races.
Josh The Boss won the Silver Trophy at Chepstow with something up his sleeve but ran a disappointing race behind Steel Ally at Haydock eight weeks ago. After that race connections indicated he'd prefer a faster surface; his chance is respected here with Mr Jamie Neild claiming seven.
I thought Spirit d'Aunou showed his best form for a while in first-time cheekpieces behind Jipcot at Newbury three weeks ago. He won off this mark at Sandown in 2023.
Course and distance winner Goshen is the best horse in the race on official ratings but is difficult to predict while Move It Like Minnie clearly didn't like jumping fences.
Earlier today I watched a recording of Wilful's last race at Taunton - his first run in a handicap.
The gelding went into the notebook in August after beating Onlyamatteroftime by nine lengths at Worcester while conceding five pounds to the Willie Mullins trained runner. Onlyamtteroftime's rating was 123 at that time - but now he's on 115.
Jonjo O'Neill's charge led for most of the way at Taunton but was swallowed up by the field approaching the last, eventually finishing eighth of the nine runners, beaten just under seven lengths. A blanket finish in the end and this looks far more competitive.
At the age of ten Stoner's Choice faces a stiff task against younger opponents while Soigneux Bell races from six pounds out of the handicap.
On the shortlist are Kamsinas, Bowenspark, and Spirit d'Aunou.
At Aintree in October Kamsinas beat Bowenspark three and a quarter lengths before finishing a creditable fourth to Steel Ally at Haydock (Josh The Boss ninth, Bowenspark tenth).
I'd be prepared to forgive both Josh The Boss and Bowenspark their run behind Steel Ally.
Back in November 2023, after Kamsinas had won the Newton Novices' Hurdle at Haydock, handler Fergal O'Brien said of his charge:
"...I thought he was very unlucky at Cheltenham [27.10.23], he got blocked coming down the hill and he ran on very well. What I loved about it was even though he'd had a fair old bang and a rough ride he threw himself over the last. He's got a great will to win. He loves being a racehorse."
Kamsinas looks a solid option but caries his share of weight.
On that Aintree run Bowenspark is weighted to reverse placings with Kamsinas but this represents his first run on a right-handed track. The booking of David Bass suggests Bowenspark could race more prominently than at Haydock.
I'm going to side with Spirit d'Aunou, back on his last winning mark, with Freddie Mitchell able to claim five pounds - I'm hoping Gary & Josh Moore's charge can build on last month's run at Newbury.
The form of the yard would be a concern although Salver ran a fine race in defeat behind Nemean Lion at Windsor earlier today.
Spirit d'Aunou is the each-way suggestion, 18/1 with layers generally, most of whom are paying four places.
11 comments:
BetMGM Holloway's Handicap Hurdle
The going at Ascot this morning is Good, Good to Soft in places.
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Bo Zenith [FR], 155, 13/2
Moveit Like Minnie [IRE], 160, 13/2
Altobelli [IRE], 155, 17/2
Aston Martini [GB], 154, 12/1
Josh The Boss [GB], 152, 12/1
Kamsinas [FR], 150, 12/1
Doddiethegreat [IRE], 148, 14/1
Georgi Girl [IRE], 150, 16/1
Spirit d'Aunou [FR], 152, 16/1
Bowenspark [IRE], 151, 18/1
Stoner's Choice [GB], 151, 18/1
Wilful [IRE], 149, 25/1
Goshen [FR], 143, 50/1
Soigneux Bell [FR], 126, 100/1
Spirit d'Aunou certainly has form in the book to give him a live chance, drying ground might be a concern?
Trends suggest siding with an improving horse, aged 7 or less and towards the front of the market, so I’m going to follow my system and take a punt on an 8yo outsider!
Moveit Like Minnie, as you note, did not thrive in his sojourn over the bigger obstacles, but he’s back on a mark of 119 over hurdles [won off 118], the system has him 5lb clear of the field, I think he might need more than 2 miles these days and at odds of 22/1 4 places 1/5 odds I’ve had a dabble.
Good luck!
TW
Thanks for your ratings, TW.
Spirit d'Aunou a non-runner now :(
I've had an each-way dabble on Bowenspark instead (14/1 bet365 4 places).
Good luck!
TW,
Excellent run from Moveit Like Minnie to claim third. Well done! He clearly likes hurdles better than fences!
Selection Spirit d'Aunou was a non-runner.
My replacement dabble, Bowenspark (16/1), raced prominently from the off with a number of other runners and appeared to pay the price for his early exertions, fading out of contention from the second last, eventually finishing sixth, beaten 12 lengths.
Backed in to 3/1, Altobelli jumped much better than at Doncaster and held off the challenge of Aston Martini (11/1) to win easily enough.
Nicky Henderson's mare ran a strange race - she was prominent early, lost her pitch after the second flight but then made steady progress to find herself with the leaders over the final three flights.
Held up, TW's pick Moveit Like Minnie (20/1) made headway from two out to finish third while Wilful (10/1) appeared to pull hard in the early stages and found himself at the head of affairs at the fifth flight. Jonjo O'Neill's charge didn't help his cause with a couple of mistakes in the jumping department and lost third spot on the run to the line.
Fitzdares Windsor Stayers Handicap Chase
Horse, System Rating, Tissue
Fortunate Man [IRE], 140, 11/2
Planned Paradise [IRE], 144, 7/1
Regatta De Blanc [GB], 139, 15/2
Yippee Ki Yay [IRE], 142, 17/2
Zertakt [FR], 139, 9/1
Art Decco [GB], 131, 9/1
Just Over Land [FR], 139, 11/1
Minella Blueway [IRE], 134, 16/1
Not Sure [IRE], 132, 20/1
From The Ashes [IRE], 126, 25/1
Animal [IRE], 130, 25/1
Apologies for interrupting on the day of rest, but I thought you might be mildly interested in the system output for the stayers handicap chase on the final day of the Berkshire Million Festival.
Planned Paradise never raced a yard LTO but if that can be put aside PP is back down to his last winning mark, is one of the few certain stayers in the race, Jack Tudor is back on board, his form record in races of 3m 4F+ is 232, 20/1 EW four places looked worth a dabble.
It will probably all end in tears!
TW
Thanks for these ratings, TW. I'll check out PP.
Haven't really looked at the race - if I'd had time, I was going to look at Animal but I'm not going to bother now ... ;)
Following the bottom rated on my system has probably proven to a be successful strategy :-)
Good efforts in the Lincolnshire and Surrey nationals suggest conditions will be right up Animal’s street and he’s been well supported in the market so certainly worth a close look, though has tended to come on for having his first run of the season.
TW
Thanks, TW. I'll take a watching brief. :)
Planned Paradise wins @ 25/1, TW!
Brilliant pick!!
It can be a long time between drinks....but great when it comes off :-)
TW
Enjoy!
Two top-rated finish first and second - excellent tipping.
Post a Comment