A couple of random thoughts before a look at the Gold Cup.
The start to the Stayers' Hurdle looked pretty dubious earlier this afternoon.
Aucunrisque and Filey Bay were well clear of their rivals in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury; they meet again in the County.
Dan Skelton has won three County Hurdles in the past eight years - with the five-year-old Superb Story (138) in 2016; Mohaayed (139) in 2018; and Ch'tibello (146) in 2019.
Pembroke (136) is the stable's main chance this year - an 8/1 shot; his conqueror over an extended trip at Cheltenham last time, Rock My Way, is an unconsidered 33/1 chance in an Albert Bartlett market dominated by Irish trained novices.
Only three of the 15 novices in tomorrow's Triumph are trained in Britain; Willie Mullins saddles seven.
In the concluding Martin Pipe, the J.P. McManus owned Iroko looked good beating Rafferty's Return 14 lengths at Wetherby last time.
3.30 Cheltenham Gold Cup
This looks a good renewal.
The 2/1 available about Galopin Des Champs earlier today is the biggest price I've seen for some time; at the moment he's generally a 6/4 shot.
The gelding has won five of his six chase starts to date, his only defeat coming when falling at the final fence in last year's Turners when 12 lengths clear of Bob Olinger.
Six weeks ago, on his first try over three miles, he beat Stattler eight lengths in the Irish Gold Cup; that day he ran on strongly at the finish, giving connections plenty of confidence he'll stay the three miles two and a half furlongs required here.
Henry De Bromhead's runners have started to find their form just at the right time. Honeysuckle won the Mares' Hurdle on Tuesday, Maskada the Grand Annual on Wednesday and Envoi Allen the Ryanair earlier today.
A Plus Tard won last year's Gold Cup by an astonishing 15 lengths from stablemate Minella Indo. On his only run this season the gelding was pulled up behind Protektorat in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. It has been a long way from the ideal preparation; he was 7/1 earlier today but, with the newly improved form of the yard, he's now generally a 4/1 chance.
Prior to the King George, connections of Bravemansgame considered their horse tailor-made for the Kempton showpiece and had dismissed talk of a Gold Cup. That all changed when Bravemansgame won at Kempton by 14 lengths from Royal Pagaille (L'Homme Presse unseating at the last when looking held). Personally I think he'll struggle to come up the hill but better judges than me - Ruby Walsh for one - think this year's Gold Cup concerns the top three in the betting.
Following his Grand National win last April at odds of 50/1, Noble Yeats wasn't realistically considered a Gold Cup contender but that all changed when he showed an impressive turn of foot to win the Many Clouds at Aintree in December (Dashel Drasher second, Ahoy Senor third and Sounds Russian fourth). He still has something to find on ratings but the recent rain helps. Connections intend to go on to Aintree and the National; the only horse to win the Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same year (1934) is Golden Miller.
Stattler won the National Hunt Novices' Chase at the Festival last year run over three miles six. Held by Galopin Des Champs on Irish Gold Cup form, he has just five chase starts to his name and is the most inexperienced runner in the field over the larger obstacles.
Conflated won the 2022 Irish Gold Cup and beat Kemboy in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown on soft ground over Christmas. This will be his first try beyond three miles and half a furlong.
Minella Indo beat A Plus Tard in the 2021 Gold Cup and finished second to his stablemate last year. At ten years of age, he's the oldest runner in the field but the only one outside the top three whose price isn't on the drift this evening.
Ahoy Senor beat Sounds Russian, Noble Yeats and Protektorat in the Cotswold Chase at the end of January. The market takes a dim view of that form.
Ahoy Senor is a wildcard, possessing an engine but the jumping isn't always assured. Admittedly Sounds Russian was receiving weight but he may well have won the Cotswold Chase but for a mistake four from home while Betfair Chase winner Protektorat, sent off 5/4 favourite, was very disappointing. After the race handler Dan Skelton blamed himself for having left his charge 'undercooked'.
Third in last year's Gold Cup, Protektorat is rated higher than all bar the top three in the betting and is suited by soft ground. His handler thinks he will be competitive.
Royal Pagaille will appreciate the cut underfoot but picked up an injury in the King George - it has been a rush to get him ready.
Hewick would be of interest on decent ground while Eldorado Allen has been beaten by Bravemansgame (twice) and Protektorat this season.
The favourite looks the one to beat but I think Protektorat decent each way value at 18/1 with Sky paying five places.
Selection: Protektorat each way at 18/1, with Sky paying five places.
1 comment:
Galopin Des Champs (7/5f) and Bravemansgame (6/1) had the Gold Cup between them coming to the last. The former powered up the hill to win by seven lengths.
I was surprised to see selection Protektorat sent off at 25/1. He raced in third for much of the trip and led briefly before two out but was soon passed by the principals and then by Conflated (22/1) coming to the last. Running on fumes up the hill, he was eventually pipped for fourth spot by the fast-finishing Noble Yeats (14/1).
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