Friday, March 24, 2023

Kelso capers

A slight digression before the main agenda item but I noted the following during the week after Cheltenham...

It was reported a team of researchers led by Dr Helen Keyes at Anglia Ruskin University found that "live sporting event attendance was associated with increased life satisfaction, a greater sense of life being worthwhile and reduced loneliness". 

Nobody from Dr Keyes' team has ever spoken to me - or, as far as I'm aware, to any of the people that I used to go racing with. 

Paddy Power, Betfair and Skybet between them handled £250 million in bets over the four days of the Festival, according to The Sun.

In his business market summary on Tuesday, Dominic Walsh of The Times reported: '...but when the hot favourite Galopin Des Champs romped home first in the Gold Cup, the jockey Willie Mullins and the trainer Paul Townend became the toast of Cheltenham.' 

A top trainer Paul Townend, but I still haven't been able to establish how much overweight Willie Mullins put up on the winner.


Ten are set to face the starter tomorrow for the Make Your Best Bet At BetVictor Handicap Chase (3.35  Kelso); the going at the Scottish track is described as good to soft.

I fully expected to see Flower of Scotland, winner of the Scottish Borders National here in December, in this field but connections have opted to take advantage of a five pound lower hurdle rating and instead run in the Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle at 2.25.    

Current market leader Forward Plan, second in a Class 4 handicap chase at Fontwell on debut over fences, has won two more Class 4 handicap chases - both at Southwell - and takes a significant rise in class here. 

Anthony Honeyball's charge, a progressive, strong travelling type, has been raised ten pounds to a mark of 125 for that last win; in a Straight from the Stable article [RP Weekender 23-27.11.23] the handler said:

"He is not a big scopey type, but his schooling has been good and I expect him to do well as a chaser."

His opponents boast far more experience over the larger obstacles.

At the time of writing the market appears to divide the field into two with the winner likely to come from the top five in the betting: Forward Plan; Hill Sixteen; Doyen Breed; Half Shot; and Irish raider Clonguile Way.

Of the two Sandy Thomson trained runners Doyen Breed, with Ryan Mania up, appears to have been trained specifically with this race in mind.  

Hill Sixteen hasn't been seen since finishing seventh in the Becher at the beginning of December and then underwent wind surgery in January. 

He currently holds an entry in next month's Grand National for which he is quoted a 66/1 chance. This is the prep run but he wouldn't be certain to make the cut for the Aintree showpiece.

Most of Half Shot's form is at trips under three miles while Conguile Way, second behind Flower Of Scotland in the Borders National off 114, doesn't look particularly well handicapped off 125; occasionally he has jumped out to his right.

Elvis Mail is another who has done most of his racing at around two to two and a half miles. 

Back in January the grey stayed on to claim a respectable third behind Cooper's Cross and Cap Du Nord in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster run over three miles; he comes here having unseated Bruce Lynn at the first in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham ten days ago.

Bavington Bob ran well at this track behind Just Don't Know a couple of months ago but the remainder of his form this term hasn't been up to scratch. On his last two runs at Newcastle blinkers were deployed; cheekpieces are tried for the first time tomorrow.

Cilaos Emery is having his second run for new connections having moved from Willie Mullins' yard last month.

Lucinda Russell saddles two of the outsiders.

Like many, I thought Mighty Thunder ran well for a long way behind Kitty's Light in the Eider - the best form he has shown for quite some time. His last victory came in the Scottish National at Ayr in April 2021 off a mark of 144. 

He goes off 127 tomorrow and Patrick Wadge can claim a further five so, if back to form, the gelding is certainly well handicapped. He was to be my each-way suggestion - until I read Lucinda Russell's quote in the Racing Post:

"I wouldn't want any more rain for Mighty Thunder, who showed a return to form in the Eider. This wouldn't be his ideal track but I hope he'll run well enough to go back to Ayr for the Scottish National. Big River is having a resurgence and is in great form at home so I hope he'll run a good race." 

Big River may be thirteen years of age but the old boy loves it at Kelso - by my calculation he has won at the track eight times. Horses for courses, as they say, and Derek Fox rides.

Big River is the each-way suggestion, 20/1 at the time of writing with Sky paying four places.

1 comment:

GeeDee said...

Elvis Mail (7/1) stayed on strongly from the last to collect the spoils in emphatic fashion on his first try at the trip.

Money came for Half Shot who was sent off 3/1 favourite; Iain Jardine's charge was no match for the winner but crossed the line seven and a half lengths in arrears with Forward Plan (4/1) a further eight lengths behind in third.

Selection Big River (18/1) was never competitive and never looked happy in rear, running in snatches throughout. After being outpaced on the final circuit, he made some modest headway from off the home turn, eventually finishing seventh, beaten over 21 lengths and just under four lengths behind stablemate Mighty Thunder (17/2) in fifth.

Grand National hopeful Hill Sixteen (17/2) looked well beforehand but finished last, beaten over 44 lengths.

Those considering Aintree chances need not feel too disheartened as this trainer has previous form when using a prep race before a big race target - the one that immediately comes to mind is Seeyouatmidnight who was pulled up at Haydock on 02.12.20 before winning the Veterans Chase Final at Sandown on 02.01.21.

Hill Sixteen remains a 66/1 chance.

Having missed the cut last year and then unluckily unseating four out in the Scottish Grand National, he looks to have every chance of making the cut this year. I just wondered though whether he had started to run out of petrol before that unfortunate incident at Ayr...