Friday, November 11, 2022

Cheltenham November meeting 2022 - Paddy Power Gold Cup

Fifteen of the sixteen 48 hour declarations are set to face the starter for tomorrow's Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 Cheltenham, Editeur Du Gite the non-runner) with the official going currently described as good.

The trends point to a chaser aged between six and nine with previous course form carrying 11-0 or less while a recent run is considered a definite bonus - Galahad Quest and Ga Law both fit the profile. 

However, as I explain below, I still haven't quite recovered from the events of 12 months ago. 

The Mouse Morris-trained French Dynamite heads the market; there's a strong suspicion he's ahead of his current handicap mark of 148.

Irish trained runners don't have a particularly strong record in this race - when Tranquil Sea won the 2009 renewal, Edward O'Grady's charge became the first Irish-trained winner for 29 years.

Ga Law picked up an injury in the 2021 Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton and only returned to action three weeks ago at Aintree where he ran with credit to finish third behind Riders Onthe Storm. 

Described as a potential standard bearer for the yard in a recent Weekender Straight from the Stable article, Jamie Snowden's charge has never faced more than seven opponents in each of his six chase starts to date.

Stolen Silver hails from the in-form Sam Thomas yard (38% strike-rate in the past fortnight). The grey beat Simply The Betts and Coole Cody over the new course in April and as a result starts off a mark of 150. 

Paul Nicholls saddles five-year-old Il Ridoto. 

I was at Newbury this time last year when he won the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy by six and a half lengths, a precocious effort in the circumstances. 

When Nicholls sent out the five-year-old Caid Du Berlais to win this race in 2014 the gelding became the first five-year-old to win since Cyfor Malta in 1998.

Last year's renewal still holds painful personal memories.

Coole Cody, bidding to win the race for the second consecutive year, went into a clear lead from the third and, despite jumping right on occasions, was still at the head of affairs coming to the penultimate flight where Evan Williams' charge crashed out of contention. 

Midnight Shadow took up the running to claim the spoils with Galahad Quest fifth, Simply The Betts sixth and Deyrann Du Carjac eleventh.

As I wrote at the time, I'd had the winner pencilled in after his second behind Chatham Street Lad the previous December. However, at the very last minute I was ambushed by a bullish Alan King piece in the Weekender concerning Deyrann De Carjac on seasonal debut.

The handler reported his charge 'not badly treated off a mark of 137 judged on his best form'. Tempted by the 33/1 on offer, I jumped ship and backed the beast each-way; I'm sure I don't really need to relate what happened next.

Deyrann struggled to go the early pace and looked likely to be pulled up before staying on in the latter stages; he eventually finished eleventh but was somehow beaten less than ten lengths.

Four weeks later he finished fifth off 133 behind Coole Cody in the Racing Post Gold Cup Handicap Chase over the new course.

In what was probably his best effort last season Deyrann finished fifth behind Vienna's Court in the New Year's Day Handicap Chase run over the new course (Simply The Betts second, Galahad Quest sixth, Coole Cody eleventh).  

Mr. King is certainly more circumspect this year: '...and it may be we're flying too high'. 

The horse is set to carry four pounds more than his long handicap weight on this occasion but this is offset by Harry Kimber's five pounds claim. 

I think Deyrann De Carjac is ahead of his current mark (126) - he's rated 132 over hurdles - but a similar case can be made for a few in this field. 

He appeared a little unlucky on seasonal debut to be caught in the shadow of the post at Wetherby a fortnight ago on ground softer than ideal. I'd like to think that he comes into the race in better form than last year and that the drying ground will also help eke out some further improvement.

This evening Alan King told the Racing Post:

"It was frustrating to see him caught close home at Wetherby but he's come out of the race fine and, as he will relish the prevailing good ground, we've decided to allow him to take his chance." 

In a race that always has plenty of pace, I'd want to see him hold a position in the early stages.

Deyrann Du Carjac is the each-way suggestion, currently priced 16/1 with Paddy Power who are paying one fifth the odds five places.


TW said...

Stolen Silver hails from the in-form Sam Thoams yard

Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase

Quirky system output as follows:

166,0.254,GA LAW(FR)
163,0.018,COOLE CODY(IRE)
164,0.01,IL RIDOTO(FR)

First, as proof that I’ve read the full piece, an editorial correction:

Stolen Silver hails from the in-form Sam Thoams yard

I’m afraid to say the system has totally discounted the chance of Deyraan De Carjac….this of course may be the very best of news!

GA Law and Midnight River dominate the system output. Always a chance that GA Law may bounce on his second run after a long lay off, so at more attractive odds [14/1 5plcs 1/5 odds] I’ll weigh in with Midnight River.

Good luck!


GeeDee said...

Thanks for the editorial correction, TW, and for providing your ratings.

My sub-editor started on the beers earlier this afternoon and, whisper it quietly, currently appears a little the worse for wear...

I couldn't be confident, barely hopeful, about Deyrann. I'm missed 25/1 (Sky Bet) this morning but placed my bet at 20/1.

Good luck!

TW said...

Well done, 20/1 [5 places] about Deyrann de Carjac was a great shout, my system was wrong to be so dismissive!

GeeDee said...

The system output may have discounted Deyrann's chance, TW, but three of the top four rated finished first, third and second respectively. Impressive.

Midnight River was beaten just under four lengths but appeared to concede a lot of ground at the start.

GeeDee said...

In a rough-looking renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup Kerry Lee's Storm Control (50/1) set a brisk pace at the head of affairs and only weakened out of contention coming to the penultimate flight.

Stolen Silver was sent off 4/1 favourite but his jumping didn't cut the mustard; pilot Sam Twiston-Davies was unseated three from home.

French Dynamite (5/1), prominent throughout, certainly had the run of the race and took up the running from two out whereas Ga Law (5/1) met plenty of trouble in behind before coming to throw down his challenge at the final flight.

The Irish-trained runner made a crucial mistake at the last allowing Ga Law to go on and win by threequarters of a length.

As referenced above Midnight River (15/2) conceded several lengths to the main body of the field at the start but made headway from three out to pinch third from Il Ridoto (15/2).

Paul Nicholls' charge didn't handle the preliminaries particularly well but ran a fine race in the circumstances; he was challenging for second spot when making a bad mistake at the last.

Racing towards the rear, selection Deyrann Du Carjac (18/1) wasn't mentioned too often in Richard Hoiles' commentary but he made steady headway from two out and came up the hill to claim fifth spot, just under six lengths behind the winner.